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Macro Thoughts

Commerce Department said on Monday consumer spending, which accounts
for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surged 0.9 percent
as households stepped up purchases

Home Thoughts

‘I’ve come to think part of it is about fear—I’ve been dealing with
fear my whole life, since I was a child. Around Finsbury Park, where I
grew up, if you wandered accidentally around the wrong corner, to a
part of the neighborhood that wasn’t yours, you could get a nasty
beating, you might get your face slashed with a Stanley knife. A
camera was like Icarus’ wings to get myself out of that place. But
I’ve always felt a kinship with people who have little and live in
fear.’

I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

Donald Trump has sued Deutsche Bank and Capital One in a bid to stop
them from handing over financial records in response to congressional
subpoenas issued by Democrats.
Mr Trump filed suit late on Monday in a federal court in New York to
stop the banks giving Congress years of records about his business
dealings. The move is the latest attempt by the president to frustrate
efforts by Democrats to dig into his personal affairs.
The lawsuit asked the court to declare subpoenas from the House
intelligence and financial services committees invalid, and prevent
Deutsche Bank and Capital One from complying with them.
He was joined in the suit by his sons Donald and Eric, his daughter
Ivanka, who is also a White House adviser, and several related
entities, including the Trump Organization.
The filing claimed the subpoenas were issued to “harass” Mr Trump and
“to ferret about for any material that might be used to cause him
political damage”.
“No grounds exist to establish any purpose other than a political
one,” said the filing.

Deutsche Bank loans were surely ‘’mirror’’ transactions, where
Deutsche Bank was a commission agent interposed between Trump and the
real lender. All those sales where Trump proclaimed himself a
‘’genius’’ because they were so off-market, we would all be
incredulous, were essentially just that ‘’incredible’’

”I’m only here because I disagree with the political leadership of
this country...I'm here for protesting against unfair taxation and
against injustice. If I'm to go through this oppression and pain for
the betterment of my country so be it.”— @HEBobiwine

“It is not clear when or where the video was recorded but
al-Baghdadi’s comments on the results of the Israeli elections and the
ousting of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashair suggests in was recorded
recently”. @BBCMonitoring

''In this lovely season of early Summer when every living thing is
full of energy, I wish to welcome all of you, distinguished guests
representing over 100 countries, to attend this important forum on the
Belt and Road Initiative held in Beijing'' said H.E. Xi Jinping in his
address At the Opening Ceremony of The Belt and Road Forum for
International Cooperation.  The Opening Address was headlined ''Work
Together to Build the Silk Road Economic Belt and The 21st Century
Maritime Silk Road''

Many of our African Leaders had of course visited in September for the
FOCAC summit when ''September has just set in Beijing, bringing with
it refreshing breeze and picturesque autumn scenery''

I learnt that it was

''In the autumn of 2013, respectively in Kazakhstan and Indonesia, I
proposed the building of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st
Century Maritime Silk Road, which I call the Belt and Road Initiative.
As a Chinese saying goes, "Peaches and plums do not speak, but they
are so attractive that a path is formed below the trees." Four years
on, over 100 countries and international organizations have supported
and got involved in this initiative. Important resolutions passed by
the UN General Assembly and Security Council contain reference to it.
Thanks to our efforts, the vision of the Belt and Road Initiative is
becoming a reality and bearing rich fruit Today, a multi-dimensional
infrastructure network is taking shape, one that is underpinned by
economic corridors such as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,
China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor and the New Eurasian
Continental Bridge, featuring land-sea-air transportation routes and
information expressway and supported by major railway, port and
pipeline projects''

To quote a Chinese saying, “The ocean is vast because it rejects no
rivers.” - I enjoy parsing Xi Jinping's linguistics and you will
surely recall a substantial linguistic recasting last year at FOCAC
where the President spoke of ''The End of Vanity [Projects]'' for
example.

it would be churlish not to recognise the breathtaking scope and
contours of H.E Xi Jinping's vision. If You accept that Mankind is at
the apogee of its Progress then at this moment of apogee, there is no
other World Leader thinking or operating at this level. I wrote of the
''Platform Economy'' last week and referenced the new
''blitz-scaling'' economic model that the likes of UBER were pursuing,
however, on a macro level, there is no one who is thinking or
executing at the level of the Belt and Road.

Francis Schaeffer: "We are not building God’s kingdom; God is building
his kingdom, and we are praying for the privilege of being involved."

Of course, as I wrote in August 2017

''Xi Jinping’s One Belt One Road [OBOR] program binds the world to
Beijing because all the roads and railways have but one destination
and that is China'' and we must appreciate how the centre of Gravity
[which was once somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and is
now probably somewhere in Russia] is being shifted further East with
the Belt and Road.  Data from Refinitiv shows the total value of
projects in the scheme stands at $3.67 trillion, spanning countries in
Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania and South America. The Economist
estimates ''that China will spend $1trn within the next decade on its
monumental scheme.'' Xi said over $64 billion in deals were signed at
the Belt and Road summit. Eximbank said this week that its outstanding
bri-related credit was more than 1trn yuan, or nearly $150bn.

“All of this shows that Belt and Road cooperation is in synch with the
times, widely supported, people centered and beneficial to all''

President Jinping has further fine-tuned his vision and is surely far
more sensitive to his environment and the feedback Loop than his State
Media and its attendant paraphernalia which tends to be rigid and
hard.

“Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock,
which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft,
and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is another
paradox: What is soft is strong,” Lao Tzu

He said ''We should pursue the new vision of green development and a
way of life and work that is green, low-carbon, circular and
sustainable''

Finance is the lifeblood of modern economy. Only when the blood
circulates smoothly can one grow. We should establish a stable and
sustainable financial safeguard system that keeps risks under control,
create new models of investment and financing, encourage greater
cooperation between government and private capital and build a
diversified financing system and a multi-tiered capital market.

Third, we should build the Belt and Road into a road of opening up.
Opening up brings progress while isolation results in backwardness.
For a country, opening up is like the struggle of a chrysalis breaking
free from its cacoon. There will be short-term pains, but such pains
will create a new life. The Belt and Road Initiative should be an open
one that will achieve both economic growth and balanced development.

As the second Belt and Road Forum drew to a close, the leaders of 37
countries joined Chinese President Xi Jinping in signing a joint
communique promising to work together as the global project enters its
next phase. At the inaugural forum in 2017, just 29 nations made such
a pledge, with Portugal, Austria, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore
and Thailand among the new signatories this time around.

Now of course, China has had to fine-tune, resize and even the tighten
the Belt and disavow some Folks of the notion that Xi was Santa Claus.
Bloomberg Opinion writes

On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged high standards and
“zero tolerance” for corruption in the program. The sheer volume of
the supposedly multi-trillion-dollar initiative looked impossible to
match. Meanwhile, a corrosive combination of debt, corruption and
privileged access for Chinese companies threatened to lure or coerce
countries away from the U.S. orbit and into China’s. In many ways,
though, this model always contained the seeds of its own failure. The
emphasis on speed and scale came at the expense of sustainability,
both economically and politically. In most countries, China failed to
build a broader consensus for its investments beyond whatever
government happened to be in office. In a series of elections from
Malaysia to the Maldives, opposition parties have sailed into power by
railing against Chinese megaprojects that looked to be lining the
pockets of politicians more than boosting the economy. Investments in
countries such as Pakistan had already been pared back as rising debt
levels limited their ability to take on new projects. But leaders in
Beijing can and will adjust. They’ve already shown striking
willingness to renegotiate contracts, with Malaysia’s $16 billion East
Coast Rail Link — now around 30 percent cheaper — being only the
largest example.

China is on the hook for billions in Venezuela for billions of Dollars
if Maduro is regime-changed. China has always affirmed its Policy of
non-interference but in many parts of the World we are watching a lot
of long standing Regimes spasm and a betting Man would bet on many of
them dying. This is clearly particularly the case in many parts of
Africa as we watch events unfold in real time in places like Khartoum
and Algiers. Clearly the old Chinese bet of buttressing the incumbent
via building roads to his home village and Football stadia is no
longer de rigeur. A lot of Leaders have yet to make the adjustment.
Those who straddle the Belt and Road Platform ''geo-economically'' and
''geo-strategically'' will evidently get a Free Pass and these
countries are easily identified and include the Near Abroad [Asean],
Pakistan [key to triangulating India and the Gwadar Port is an escape
hatch], Greece and Italy [a beachhead into Europe and where your best
Mate Vlad is also snapping at European Heels] and then Africa of
course where You will note Prime Minister Abiy is getting the
kid-glove treatment, the Indian Ocean Islands [because of Economic
Exclusion Zones, for example].

Xi Jinping has been pivoting his Belt and Road. He has his hand on the
Spigot a lot more firmly. Time to pay attention.

Euro 1.1202
Dollar Index 97.67
Japan Yen 111.38
Swiss Franc 1.0184
Pound 1.2975
Aussie 0.7053
India Rupee 69.8425
South Korea Won 1168.275
Brazil Real 3.9462
Egypt Pound 17.179
South Africa Rand 14.3825

Coffee farmers in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter,
are refusing to sell their beans after arabica futures dropped to the
lowest in more than 13 years.
After collecting a record crop last year, growers face the prospect of
another bumper harvest this season.
That underscores why hedge funds are wagering on further declines.
But farmers are hoarding their beans, hoping for a “miraculous” price
recovery, Nelson Salvaterra, a broker at Rio de Janeiro-based Coffee
New Selection, said in a telephone interview.
In the short run, the strategy may be doing more harm than good. While
it’s helped to support domestic prices -- the discount for Brazil’s
arabica beans versus New York futures has narrowed -- it’s made the
nation’s commodity more expensive than supplies from competitors,
Salvaterra said.
That’s slowing the pace of Brazil’s exports, after a record shipment
pace this season through February.
Brazilian exports of green coffee in March dropped about 20 percent
from the prior month to about 2.6 million bags, and that pace is
likely to hold in April, Salvaterra forecasts. A bag weighs 60
kilograms, or 132 pounds.
“The volume shipped is only covering previously agreed upon contracts,” he said.

Shortly before Sudan’s president Omar al-Bashir was toppled on April
11, he asked to see Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better
known as Hemeti, the head of a paramilitary force under his command.
At the meeting, according to Lt Gen Hamdan, the 75-year-old president
quoted a piece of Islamic jurisprudence that supposedly gives a leader
the right to kill up to a third of his people. Based on that Koranic
interpretation, the soldier said, the president had ordered him to
disperse tens of thousands of protesters calling for his removal, no
matter what the cost in lives.

Lt Gen Hamdan refused. “I said God forbid,” he told a press conference
in Khartoum after Mr Bashir had been ousted and taken to Kober
maximum-security prison. “That was our last interaction.”

Thus ended Mr Bashir’s 30-year rule.

In Sudan and also Algeria, where another authoritarian ruler was
ousted this month, militaries that had long preserved the rule of one
man have responded to popular uprisings by turning against their heads
of state.
In Algeria, Ahmed Gaid Salah, the army chief of staff once loyal to
Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the 82-year old president, reluctantly agreed to
deliver the coup de grâce. The wheelchair-bound Mr Bouteflika, whose
decision to stand in elections for a fifth term had sparked mass
demonstrations, was removed from office.
The question is what happens next? In both countries, some find it
hard to believe that the military ejected longtime rulers in order
simply to hand over power to civilians.
In Algeria, where the military has long been at the core of the
regime, there is a widespread belief that the armed forces are
motivated by regime preservation rather than any desire to dismantle a
system of power and patronage in place since independence from France
in 1962.
“We are powerful now because we have those people on the street,” said
Osman Mirghani, a prominent journalist, referring to the tens of
thousands who congregate daily on the streets of Khartoum, pressing
for a transfer to civilian power. “But once those people withdraw, the
army will not talk to us.”
“Armies like order and they want matters to be clear and organised,”
said Mr Charef. “But the army knows that in a crisis they will have to
open fire against Algerians. They are thinking of how to avoid this.”

The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place
of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a
cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of
attack), in other words a producer of speed

A new tide of people power is rising in Africa. On April 2, a
nonviolent resistance movement in Algeria succeeded in pressuring
Abdelaziz Bouteflika to resign after 20 years as president. Nine days
later, protesters in Sudan were celebrating the ouster of Omar
al-Bashir, Sudan’s president of 30 years, after a three-month-long
uprising against his regime.

The nonviolent overthrows of Bouteflika and Bashir are not
aberrations. They reflect a surprising trend across the continent:
despite common perceptions of Africa as wracked by violence and
conflict, since 2000, most rebellions there have been unarmed and
peaceful. Over the past decade, mass uprisings in Africa have
accounted for one in three of the nonviolent campaigns aiming to
topple dictatorships around the world. Africa has seen 25 new,
nonviolent mass movements—almost twice as many as Asia, the next most
active region with 16.

Since the 1970s, Africa’s nonviolent uprisings have also had the
highest success rate in the world. Roughly 58 percent of the uprisings
aimed at overthrowing dictatorships have succeeded, in countries as
diverse as Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Mali, South
Africa, Tunisia, Zambia, and, most recently, Algeria and Sudan. That
far surpasses the success rate of 44 percent for movements against
autocratic regimes in all other regions.

In addition to the historical knowledge that the current generation of
protesters has inherited, four other key factors underpin the success
of uprisings in Africa. Activists have mobilized mass movements,
harnessed women’s participation and leadership, elicited active or
tacit support from military and security services, and secured
regional buy-in.

During the past decade, mobilization has succeeded when activists have
transcended their identities. With 62 percent of Africa’s population
under the age of 25, successful coalitions have hinged on mobilizing
youth support, as in Senegal’s Y’en a Marre movement (2011) and
Burkina Faso’s Balai Citoyen (2013). In Algeria, young people have
filled the streets protesting unemployment, but so, too, have their
parents and grandparents, who want better futures for their children.

Underpinning these successes has been the prominent role of women
organizing, leading, and joining resistance activities. As half of the
population, women must participate if a mass movement is to work. But
they have done more than simply show up: their leadership has added
political legitimacy to protests, enhanced credibility to calls for
nonpartisan unity, and reinforced the importance of nonviolent
tactics. Iconic images from both Sudan and Algeria have featured young
women dancing and reciting poetry, calling on demonstrators to
celebrate and unite in the face of dictatorship. In Sudan, 22-year-old
Alaa Salah, who was dubbed the protests’ “Nubian queen,” described her
resistance as motivated by patriotism, not politics.

In this case, the military’s loyalty shifted from the bottom up: foot
soldiers were siding with protesters on the street several days before
top generals convened a midnight meeting to oust Bashir from office.

Accor SA will open 60 new hotels in 14 countries in Africa in the next
four years, its Chief Executive Officer for Middle East and Africa
Mark Willis said.
During the next two years, the European hotel operator will open more
than half of them in Egypt, which Willis said is rebounding after
“external factors” hurt the industry.
In 2015 an Islamic State affiliate blew up a Russian aircraft as it
left the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh in an attack that killed
224 people.
“Egypt is resurrecting after 10 years of a tough situation,” Willis
said in an interview in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.
Egypt has overtaken Kenya’s coastal region as the preferred
destination for European tourists and investors, he said, and revenue
per available Accor room there has risen 20 percent year-on-year.
Kenya’s coastal city of Mombasa “is not at the forefront of people’s
minds today,” he said. Only one of the target hotels will be in the
East African nation known for safaris and beach tourism.
The continent has sustained unprecedented rates of economic growth,
driven chiefly by sturdy domestic demand, better macroeconomic
management and improving political stability.
Key markets in Accor’s growth plan include Nigeria, Ethiopia and South
Africa, where it will open 10, seven and three hotels respectively by
2020.
Accor has 143 hotels in Africa, 63 of them south of the Sahara, and
will promote its Movenpick luxury brand, Willis said.
The hotel group will finance the growth with more than $1 billion from
the Kasada Fund set up by Katara Hospitality and Accor last year for
sub-Saharan Africa.
Accor invested $150 million, while the Qatar Investment Authority unit
put in $350 million. The remaining $500 million will be raised through
bank loans, according to Willis.
It may expand through mergers, acquisitions and partnerships on the
continent, including in South Africa, where Accor is already
considering several opportunities, Willis said.
“We have a soft footprint in South Africa, which historically was not
a focus for Accor, but it very much is today,” he said.
While Accor has considered introducing its home-sharing platform
Onefinestay in Kenya, the continent is still immature for that type of
product due to reasons such as security, Willis said.
“It will continue to develop, and where there’s an opportunity for
Onefinestay, for sure we will put it on the table,” he said.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa disrupted his election
campaign schedule earlier this month to rush to Alexandra township
when he learned that residents there were burning tires and
barricading roads to protest squalid living conditions. He told them
they’d been heard.
“Your message has gone through the whole country, that you are sick
and tired of poor service delivery,” he thundered to thousands of
cheering supporters in a speech mostly in the Sesotho language.
“You as people of Alexandra want people who will serve you better.” He
blamed most of the problems on the opposition Democratic Alliance,
which has run Johannesburg, including Alexandra, since 2016.
That Ramaphosa could generate so much enthusiasm even though his
African National Congress has governed South Africa for 25 years shows
how he’s restoring faith among voters deterred by predecessor Jacob
Zuma’s scandal-marred, nine-year rule.
Opinion polls indicate many of the party’s traditional supporters who
boycotted a 2016 municipal vote have returned. The ANC is expected to
easily maintain its monopoly on power in the May 8 national elections,
albeit with a slightly reduced majority.
His own approval rating is 60 percent, while his two main rivals,
Mmusi Maimane, the leader of the center-right DA, and Julius Malema,
who heads the radical Economic Freedom Fighters, polled 42 percent and
38 percent respectively, a survey commissioned by the South African
Institute of Race Relations shows.
And 55 percent of 3,431 adults canvassed late last year by the
University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Social Development expressed
trust in the presidency under Ramaphosa, 66, compared with 26 percent
under Zuma.
“When Cyril Ramaphosa was here, it’s when I realized that something is
about to change,” said Tshepo Dichaba, 19, who runs a barber shop from
a curbside shack in Alexandra.
“It’s easy to believe him, unlike Zuma. If he told me he was going to
build houses, my first thought would be yes, he will.”
Despite his popularity among the electorate, Ramaphosa’s hold on the
ANC remains tenuous. The party remains deeply divided following a
bruising leadership battle in December 2017, when he took over the
helm of the party from Zuma.
Several Zuma allies who’ve been implicated in graft inquiries continue
to occupy top posts and could try to topple Ramaphosa in an internal
vote in 2022.
“The danger is not the outcome of the forthcoming elections,” said
Sethulego Matebesi, a political analyst at the University of the Free
State, who rates Ramaphosa as the best leader the country’s had since
Nelson Mandela stepped down in 1999.
“The danger for South Africa is what is going to happen in the next
elective conference of the ANC. There is a absolutely no guarantee
that Cyril Ramaphosa will come back after five years for a second
term.”
And investors remain skeptical that Ramaphosa can push through such
promises as to revive the flagging economy and rein in runaway
government debt.
Business confidence is at a two-year low, the nation’s final
investment-grade rating is hanging by a thread and the rand has
dropped almost 20 percent against the dollar since he took office,
battered by power blackouts and lackluster growth.
Ramaphosa’s broad-based appeal, on display on scores of campaign stops
across the country, is underpinned by his experience in the uppermost
echelons of politics, business—and labor unions.
He founded the National Union of Mineworkers and led the nation’s
biggest-ever mining strike in the 1980s, then became the ANC’s
secretary-general, helped negotiate a peaceful end to apartheid and
headed a panel that drafted South Africa’s first democratic
constitution.
After losing out to Thabo Mbeki in the contest to succeed Mandela as
president, he spent 14 years in business. He amassed a multi-million
dollar fortune by securing the McDonald’s Corp. franchise in South
Africa, and also founded an investment company that accumulated stakes
in platinum mines operated by Lonmin Plc, and a coal-mining venture
with Glencore Plc. Among his hobbies:
He owns a buffalo and antelope ranch and breeds long-horned Ugandan
Ankole cattle.
“He is a son of the soil, understands farming and understands what has
to be done to correct the course the country is on”
Ramaphosa showed his dexterity when he addressed about 250 mainly
white farmers and businessmen on a wine farm on the outskirts of
Stellenbosch near Cape Town.
He assured them that people who’d looted state funds would be jailed
and the ANC’s plans to change the constitution to make it easier to
seize land without compensation will be sensibly implemented.
“I believe that Ramaphosa is the one who can save South Africa,’’ said
Beyers Truter, 64, a wiry, bearded wine farmer who attended the
gathering.
“He is a son of the soil, understands farming and understands what has
to be done to correct the course the country is on.”
White South Africans, who account for about 8 percent of the nation’s
57.7 million people, have mostly tended to back the DA.
Since assuming the presidency in February last year, Ramaphosa has
fired a number of Zuma’s most inept ministers, replaced the boards and
executives of mismanaged state companies and secured pledges of
billions of dollars in new investment.
But he’s struggled to reignite economic growth and reduce a 27 percent
joblessness rate. Bloomberg’s Misery Index, which sums inflation and
unemployment outlooks for 62 nations nations, shows South Africa has
the third-most miserable economy, after Venezuela and Argentina.
Paramedic Godfrey Mosoaka, 35, is among former ANC supporters who
hasn’t bought into Ramaphosa’s promise of a “new dawn.” He was among a
400-strong crowd on a dirt field in Caleb Motshabi, a sprawling
settlement of tiny metal shacks and cinder-block homes on the
outskirts of the central city of Bloemfontein, to hear Ramaphosa’s
pitch on April 7.
“There are no services, they are not doing anything for us,” Mosoaka
said, pointing to a track alongside his house that had been in reduced
to a muddy swamp by heavy rains. “They are taking care of themselves.
Twenty-five years is more than enough.” He plans to boycott the vote.
Thomas Lidebawe, 64, a retired plumber in the crowd, said he was
convinced the president can put the country back on course if given
more time.
“Ramaphosa is better than Zuma,” he said. “With Zuma, there was just
corruption. That time was problematic. Now things are better.”

We dream of a new politics
That will renew the world
Under their weary suspicious gaze. There’s always a new way,
A better way that’s not been tried before.

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Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +13.31% 2019
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In the early 1990s, Eritrea was praised as a model for post-conflict
governance. It attempted to formulate and implement socio-economic
development policies and institutional reconstruction strategies with
relatively good governance, judicial justice, political transparency,
accountability, fundamental freedoms and participation of citizens in
public affairs.
Following the devastating border war with Ethiopia (1998–2000), the
country tragically degenerated from ‘the one ray of hope in the Horn
of Africa’ into a totalitarian state where economic development and
post-war reconstruction were brought to a standstill, and citizens
were stripped of all fundamental rights and freedoms.
The President of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, rose to prominence in the
struggle for independence, achieved from Ethiopia in 1991, where he
moved ‘from heroic liberator to iron-fisted saboteur’ of that
independence. Socio-political repression, economic deprivation and
structural violence subsequently became part of Eritrea’s daily life.
Over the last 27 years, Eritrea had borne the brunt of war and brutal
dictatorship, each with equally disastrous socio-economic, political
and psychological ramifications.
Although the country has not been in a full-blown war since the
Ethio-Eritrean border war, it exhibits a society at war’s main
characteristics, which include forced migration, drastic loss of
labour force, social upheavals, economic dislocation, social trauma,
disruption of social networks, the decline of education and
disintegration of communities and institutions.
For 18 years, the border stalemate with Ethiopia has been used as a
pretext to suspend the constitution, limit all rights and freedoms,
extend its national service indefinitely, postpone elections
indeterminately and imprison citizens without due process of the law.
In short, the ‘no war, no peace’ situation with Ethiopia was used as a
justification to hold the country hostage and to tighten Isaias’s
totalitarian grip on the population.
However, Eritreans have more reasons to be optimistic about the return
to peace, development, stability and normalcy.
Ethiopia’s unconditional acceptance and promise of full compliance
with the Algiers Agreement in July 2018 (signed following the border
war by both states in 2000) has not only paved the way for peace
between the two countries but also removed the major false pretext.
The Ethio-Eritrea peace rapprochement has, consequently, triggered
serious and widespread questions and demands within the public, the
army and the ruling regime.
As the president has failed and is unwilling to respond to staggering
political public demands, including the demobilisation of national
service personnel and the implementation of the 1997 constitution, he
has lost the legitimacy to govern and the cooperation of the masses to
obey his rules.
This has removed the psychological component of terror that had
initially drove the population into submission, and the Eritrean
public is coalescing around the common desire to abolish dictatorship.
With the growing mass movement in the diaspora, silent public
disobedience in Eritrea and signs of a looming military coup, it is
not premature to talk about post-Isaias Eritrea. Indeed the 27-year
hold on power is visibly coming to an end.
Isaias is currently facing a political bottleneck with no room to
manipulate and manoeuver his way out. He now lives in a secluded,
inaccessible and hidden from public village in Adi Halo, outside the
capital city.
He has become an isolated and lonely leader with depleted and
crumbling political capital who is decreasingly likely to regain
control.
His grip on power slipping away at a fast pace, Eritreans will
inevitably have a crucial window of opportunity to transition the
country from war and dictatorship to peace and democratisation.
Post-war recovery is a complex process, but recovery for a war-torn
society tarnished by dictatorship adds an extra dimension of
complexity. Bilateral donors, multinational agencies and international
financial institutions should therefore treat Eritrea as a country
emerging from war, providing emergency and post-war recovery
assistance, trust funds, post-war recovery grants and other financial
support.
Be that as it may, the existing administrative structures and
government systems are not designed to outlive Isaias, and there is no
succession plan.
With no vice-president or even constitution in place to secure a safe
transition of power, the military becomes the only force to assume
control of the government, and the only available option to safeguard
the nation through a turbulent transition process to democracy;
Eritrea has no civil society and lacks underground opposition except
for a new force affiliated with the army.
Engaging and negotiating with an interim military government therefore
appears the sole practical mechanism that might lead to fair and free
democratic elections, and transition the country to sustainable,
stable and permanent civilian rule.
The international community, however, tends to consider military coups
as working against democratic ideals. But when the army responds to
popular opposition against an authoritarian regime, there is potential
for more democracy-promoting attributes than those coups perpetrated
by power-hungry military leaders to depose a legitimately elected
democratic leader.
The international community should therefore seize this window of
opportunity to support the transitional caretaker government.
Although the political decisions for recovery and institutional
engineering should be an internally-driven process, the international
community would still be required to play an important role in
supporting the transitional government.
The post-dictatorship situation, potentially chaotic and turbulent,
demands their involvement in establishing security, rule of law,
rebuilding institutional capacity, meeting basic humanitarian and
emergency needs and creating conditions for democratic elections to
usher a new permanent government that guarantees long-term political
stability.
Democracy will be a prerequisite for political, economic, legal,
cultural and societal reconstruction. But establishing functional
institutions, civil society, free press and a viable educational
system are prerequisites for a successful democracy. This is because
the dictatorial government has created a socio-economically and
psychologically shattered and politically disenfranchised society. The
restoration of the education system, civil liberty and free

Kenya’s inflation shot up to 6.58 percent year-on-year in April from
4.35 percent a month earlier, due to rising food, electricity and fuel
prices, the statistics office said on Tuesday.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation was 3.51 percent, up from 1.60
percent in March. The food and non-alcoholic index rose 6.86 percent
month-on-month in April from 3.30 percent the previous month, the
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

Safaricom, Kenya’s biggest telecoms company, is seeking a replacement
for its chief executive, Bob Collymore, who is likely to step down
from the high-profile position in August.
Mr Collymore has overseen a period of remarkable growth at the
market-leading telecoms provider.
Safaricom’s share price has increased by more than 400 per cent since
Mr Collymore took the helm in 2010 and the company controls about 62
per cent of Kenya’s mobile market. Its popular mobile money service
Mpesa is used by two out of every five Kenyans.
Safaricom has not commented on Mr Collymore’s possible departure but
the company has been looking for a replacement, according to three
people with knowledge of the search.
The British executive took nine months’ medical leave in late 2017 to
return to the UK to battle cancer and has indicated that August, when
his current contract is up for renewal, would be the right time to
leave, the people said.
Mr Collymore told the Financial Times that succession planning was an
“active part of the board’s remit” but said that no final decision had
been taken on his future.
“My contract is up in August, as it has been twice during my tenure,
but no decision has been made on my part or on the part of the board,”
Mr Collymore added.
Joe Mucheru, Kenya’s minister for information, communications and
technology, said that Safaricom had created a committee to identify a
replacement for Mr Collymore but that it was yet to report to the
board on the results of the search.
The Kenyan government holds a 35 per cent stake in Safaricom and has
representatives on the board. South Africa’s Vodacom also owns 35 per
cent and the UK’s Vodafone owns a 5 per cent stake. Vodafone owns a
controlling stake in Vodacom.
Vodafone declined comment.
Reuters earlier reported that Safaricom had identified a foreign
national from within the Vodafone group to succeed Mr Collymore but
that the potential appointment was opposed by the government, which
would prefer a Kenyan citizen to run the company.
Mr Mucheru said the government had received no official communication
from Safaricom regarding a replacement for Mr Collymore and denied
that it would try to influence the appointment or that it would favour
a Kenyan candidate.
“I don’t think the government is qualified to select who will run that
company,” Mr Mucheru said. “I would expect that there would be
qualified Kenyans but as government we want to get the best person for
that business.”
Whether or not the government would try to influence the process, the
race to replace Mr Collymore will be hotly contested, according to
Aly-Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based investment adviser.
“This the most profitable company in east Africa and there will be a
lot of people with irons in the fire,” Mr Satchu said. “But ultimately
the decision sits with Vodacom and Vodafone and will be made based on
merit.”

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           27.95
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,119,828,712,600
EPS:             1.38
PE:                 20.254

Safaricom HY results for the period ended 30th September 2018 vs. 30th
September 2017
HY Voice revenue 48.03b vs. 47.35b +1.4%
HY Mpesa Revenue 35.52b vs. 30.05b +18.2%
HY SMS Revenue 8.81b vs. 8.92b -1.2%
HY Mobile data revenue 19.45b vs. 17.55b +10.8%
HY Fixed service revenue 3.91b vs. 3.23b +21.0%
HY Other service revenue 2.49b vs. 2.63b -5.35
HY Service revenue 118.21b vs. 109.73b +7.7%
HY Handset revenue and other revenue 4.33b vs. 4.49b -3.5%
HY Total revenue 122.84b vs. 114.43b +7.4%
HY Other income 0.17b vs. 0.32b -47.8%
HY Direct costs [34.81b] vs. [36.07b] -3.5%
HY Contribution margin 87.90b vs. 78.47b +12.0%
HY Operating costs [25.82b] vs. [24.13b] +7.0%
HY EBITDA 62.12b vs. 54.27b +14.5%
HY Depreciation and amortization [17.56b] vs. [16.74b] +4.9%
HY EBIT 44.56b vs. 37.53b +18.7%
HY Net financing, FX and fair value losses 1.41b vs. 0.28b
HY Profit before taxation 45.96b vs. 37.82b +21.5%
HY Net income 31.50b vs. 26.20b +20.2%
EPS 0.79 vs. 0.65 +20.2%
HY Free cash flow 38.50b vs. 32.40b +18.8%

Bob Collymore has helped to build Safaricom into East Africa’s most
profitable company, thanks to the popular mobile money transfer
service M-Pesa and a growing customer base.
However, he took a nine-month medical leave in late 2017 to return to
his native England to battle cancer, and has now indicated he wants to
step down, the sources told Reuters.
“He wants to concentrate on his health so he did not wish to renew his
contract,” said one of them, speaking on condition of anonymity as
there has been no official announcement.
Collymore told Reuters on Monday he was still in discussions with the
board, adding it would make announcements on the chief executive
position at a later date.
“I have every confidence that whether I’m here or not, that this
company will run ... This is an institution. It is not a company which
is just ran by a single person,” he said.
During his tenure, Safaricom’s share price has increased by more than
400 percent to 28.00 shillings ($0.28). He has also led the charge
against regulatory efforts to clip the company’s wings due to its
dominant size.
Safaricom, which is 35 percent owned by South Africa’s Vodacom,
controls about 62 percent of Kenya’s mobile market, with 30 million
subscribers. Britain’s Vodafone has a 5 percent stake and the Kenyan
government 35 percent.
Private investors also own shares via the Nairobi bourse.
Safaricom, which has not commented on Collymore’s departure, will
report its financial results for the year to the end of March on May
3.
The board interviewed candidates, including a senior Kenyan banking
executive, before settling on an unidentified foreign national from
within the Vodafone group to succeed Collymore, one of the sources
said.
But the government objected, citing an agreement supporting the
appointment of a Kenyan as CEO, adopted at a shareholder meeting in
2017.
“The state has said ‘no’. They might have to negotiate,” said the
source with knowledge of the succession process.
Joe Mucheru, the minister for information communication and
technology, said there had been no formal communication from the
company on Collymore’s successor.
However, he said he would be surprised if the board could not find a
Kenyan to run the company, adding that part of Collymore’s remit was
to groom a local successor.
“I would be very surprised if they can’t find a Kenyan. It will be
hard for them to justify, what is so special about telecoms?” Mucheru
told Reuters.
Collymore, who said he had acquired Kenyan citizenship in recent
years, said skills were more important than nationality. Kenyan law
allows dual-nationality.
“You have to get the right person for the job. It might be a Kenyan,
it might not be a Kenyan,” he said.
Such tensions are not unique to Kenya. Air France-KLM ruffled feathers
in France last year when it picked its first foreign CEO.

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           41.50
Total Shares Issued:          3702777020.00
Market Capitalization:        153,665,246,330
EPS:             5.25
PE:                 7.905

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           415.00
Total Shares Issued:          72472950.00
Market Capitalization:        30,076,274,250
EPS:             52.52
PE:                 7.901

Jubilee Holdings Limited FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018
vs. 31st December 2017
FY Gross written premium 26.898470b vs. 26.940991b -0.158%
FY Gross earned premium 26.706654b vs. 28.328848b -5.726%
FY Outward reinsurance [9.385170b] vs. [9.134984b] +2.739%
FY Net insurance premium revenue 17.321484b vs. 19.193864b -9.755%
FY Investment and other income 8.720734b vs. 7.575360b +15.120%
FY Net fair value [loss]/ gain on financial assets at fair value
through profit or loss [374.945m] vs. 2.700471b -113.884%
FY Commissions income 2.344571b vs. 1.803453b +30.005%
FY Total income 28.011844b vs. 31.273148b -10.428%
FY Claims and policyholder benefits expense [20.693302b] vs.
[25.127276b] -17.646%
FY Claims recoverable from reinsurers 4.763392b vs. 5.473380b -12.972%
FY Net insurance benefits and claims [15.929910b] vs. [19.653896b] -18.948%
FY Operating and other expenses [4.682646b] vs. [4.240091b] +10.437%
FY Commissions expense [3.328793b] vs. [3.400893b] -2.120%
FY Total expenses and commissions [8.011439b] vs. [7.640984b] +4.848%
FY Results of operating activities 4.070495b vs. 3.978268b +2.318%
FY Share of associates profit 1.339513b vs. 1.182702b +13.259%
FY Group profit before income tax 5.410008b vs. 5.160970b +4.825%
FY Income tax expense [1.233057b] vs. [930.660m] +32.493%
FY Profit for the year 4.176951b vs. 4.230310b -1.261%
FY Profit for the year attributable to equity holders of the company
3.806450b vs. 3.932142b -3.197%
Basic and diluted EPS 52.52 vs. 54.26 -3.207%
Total equity 28.071367b vs. 25.230650b +11.259%
Investment assets 80.355983b vs. 72.853577b +10.298%
Total Assets 114.167639b vs. 104.967530b +8.765%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of year 17.187969b vs. 14.796784b +16.160%
Total dividend 9.00 vs. 9.00 –

a period described by the company as having been “exceptionally
challenging”. @JubileeInsKE via @dailynation http://bit.ly/2WdASb9
“Our 80 years of experience, lowest expense ratio in the industry and
conservative approach to investments has allowed us to post the
impressive results that we have released today” said Mr Juma.
“Jubilee’s growth in Uganda and Tanzania has strengthened our market
leadership.”
With underwriting profit of Sh753 million, Jubilee Kenya outperformed
the industry.
Mr Juma attributed this on biometric identification that has helped
reduce fraud.
“It makes it more difficult for fraudsters to falsify claims,” said
CEO Julius Kipng’etich.

Conclusions

Strong Balance sheet with regional reach. last Year was an Annus
horribilis for Insurers.
They weathered the storm better than most.

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           4.97
Total Shares Issued:          5823588269.00
Market Capitalization:        28,943,233,697
EPS:             -1.01
PE:

Kenya Airways PLC FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018 vs.
9-month through 31st December 2017
FY Total Income 114.185b vs. 80.799b +41.320%
FY Total Operating costs [114.868b] vs. [79.791b] +43.961%
FY Operating profit [683m] vs. 1.008b -167.758%
FY Other costs [6.950b] vs. [7.346b] -5.391%
FY Interest income 45m vs. 32m +40.625%
FY Loss before income tax [7.588b] vs. [6.306b] -20.330%
FY Income tax expense/ [credit] 30m vs. [112m] +126.786%
FY Loss for the period/ year [7.558b] vs. [6.418b] -17.763%
FY Gain on hedged exchange differences 1.610b vs. 1.250b +28.800%
FY Total comprehensive loss for the period/ year [5.948b] vs. [5.168b] -15.093%
FY Loss for the period attributable to owners of the company [7.554b]
vs. [6.422b] -17.627%
FY Basic loss per share [1.30] vs. [1.12] -16.071%
FY Diluted loss per share [1.01] vs. [0.87] -16.092%
FY Total assets 136.634b vs. 147.623b -7.444%
FY Total equity [2.493b] vs. 4.857b -151.328%
FY Cash and cash equivalents at end of period/ year 6.431b vs. 6.356b +1.180%

 COMMENTARY

On behalf of the Board of Directors of Kenya Airways Plc (KC)), I am
pleased to report an improved performance, with growth in revenue
coupled with better managed expenditure to deliver an optimistic
outlook of our turnaround plan.
I would like to highlight some changes to our financial reporting.
Following the Directors resolution in 2017 to change the Group's
financial year end from 31 March to 31 December, the 2018 financial
statements cover a twelve-month period from 1 January 2018 to 31
December while the financial statements for 2017 cover a nine-month
period from 1 April 2017 to 31 December 2017.
This therefore means that the 2018 results are not directly comparable
with the 2017 results as it is a representation of 12 months against
the 9 months in 2017. Were the 2017 results to be annualised there
would be have been improvement in the results for the year. The
considerations the made in preparation of the financial statements on
a going concern basis are included in note 2(e) to the financial
statements.
The financial statements also include a restatement of the statement
of financial position as at 1 April 2017, statement of profit or loss
and other comprehensive income and statement of financial position for
the 9-month period ended 31 December 2017 as disclosed in note 40 of
the financial statements:
1. Borrowings — as at 31 December 2017, the borrowings relating to
aircraft acquisitions were erroneously classified as non-current
liabilities whereas the Airline had not met one of the covenants and
as such did not have an unconditional right to defer payment for the
next 12 months;
2. Fleet accounting of the prepaid maintenance asset and return
condition provision — to recognise prepaid maintenance asset and
return condition provision not accounted for in previous years; and
3. Mandatory convertible note — To correct the split between debt and
equity in the 9-month period ended 31 December 2017.

Kenya Airways has continued to focus on delivering the turnaround
programme that we embarked on in 2016. In the last year ended 31
December 2018, the capital optimisation program dubbed ‘project
safari’ was completed. We have also undertaken various actions to
ensure financial and operating efficiency to enhance business
sustainability. These undertakings include; Network expansion through
introduction of new routes, revenue enhancement initiatives through
boosting of ancillary revenue streams, improving the customer
experience, senior management changes and continued focus on cost
reduction initiatives.
Within the context of the actions highlighted above, the airline
announces the 2018 financial results which show that:

 Growth in Revenue

Total revenue for the 12 months amounted to KShs 114.45 billion in
2018, as compared to KShs 80.79 billion for the 9-month period ended
31 December 2017.
The growth in total revenue was mainly boosted by growth in passenger
revenue from KShs 63.9 billion in the previous 9-month period of 2017
to KShs 88.7 billion in the year ended December 31, 2018.
Passenger numbers were 4.84 million at close of December 2018, while
the 9-month period ended 31 December 2017 recorded 3.43 million
passengers.
 The airline achieved a cabin factor of 77.6% (12-month period) over
the reporting period, while the 9-month period ended 31 December 2017
recorded 76.2%.
In addition to the growth in passenger revenues, revenue from Cargo
amounted to KShs 8.68 billion for the year ended 31 December 2018 as
compared to KShs 5.7 billion for the 9-month period ended 31 December
2017.

 Operating costs

In 2018, Kenya Airways implemented various cost cutting initiatives
that enabled the airline to manage expenses despite extreme market
pressures. Fuel, personnel and the cost of aircraft remain the top
three drivers of airline costs contributing to about two thirds of
total operating cost for the airline.
Fuel price volatility remains a major challenge for airlines around
the world, and Kenya Airways is no exception. The price per barrel saw
an upward trend from the beginning of the year with Brent Crude prices
peaking at a three year high of USD 86 per Barrel in September 2018,
before reducing in the last three months of the year to close at a low
of USD 49 per Barrel in December 2018. As a result, we saw our fuel
costs rise by 73.6% from KShs 19 billion incurred in the 9-month
period in 2017 to KShs 33b in the full year ended in December 2018.
The total cost of fuel in the 12-month period of 2017 was KShs 25.5
billion, a 30% increase.
Fleet ownership costs also increased to KShs 18.9 billion from a
restated amount of KShs 12.5 billion incurred in the previous 9 -month
period
In total, the direct operating costs, fleet ownership costs and
overheads came to KShs 115.1 billion, against the total revenue
indicated above, this is a strong indication that the airline is once
again able to sustain its operations for its own internally generated
revenues.
Kenya Airways recorded an operating loss of Ksh 683 million and a loss
before tax position of KShs 7.59 billion for the year ended 31
December 2018.

Outlook

Kenya Airways will continue to implement the prudent financial
management and the turnaround initiatives started in 2018. Continuous
improvement of operations, efficient network growth and improvement of
service quality and delivery are necessary to enable the airline to
hold its own in a highly competitive environment.
In line with global practice, Kenya Airways has embraced the
unbundling of products and services and will be introducing several
measures to grow its ancillary revenue. Kenya Airways is also focusing
on reducing its operating costs while paying close attention to
customer delight initiatives.
On behalf of the Board of Directors, I take this opportunity to
express my sincere appreciation to our customers, the Government of
Kenya, shareholders, management, staff, suppliers and other
stakeholders for their continued support.

 Michael Joseph
Chairman
29th April 2019

Conclusions

its a real long journey back to profitability and it needs to staunch
the Balance sheet erosion.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +12.35% 2019
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

A market report by East Africa Tea Traders Association (Eatta) shows a
kilo of tea fetched an average Sh219 against Sh203 that was previously
recorded.

The price of tea started at Sh215 a kilo in the first sale of 2019
before taking a downward trend to touch a four-year low of Sh193 early
this month.

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           2.00
Total Shares Issued:          278342393.00
Market Capitalization:        556,684,786
EPS:             -1.90
PE:                 -1.053

Diverse group of companies invested in agriculture through to transport.

Sameer Africa PLC FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018 vs. 31st
December 2017
 FY Revenue 2.067928b vs. 2.626975b -21.281%
FY Cost of sales [1.725872b] vs. [1.846234b] +6.519%
FY Gross profit 342.056m vs. 780.741m -56.188%
FY Other operating income 30.846m vs. 95.030m -67.541%
FY Operating expenses [785.919m] vs. [780.685m] +0.670%
FY Operating [Loss]/ profit [413.017m] vs. 95.086m -534.362%
FY Net finance costs [69.124m] vs. [79.690m] -13.259%
FY Share of profit/ [loss] of equity accounted investors (net of
income tax) 4.027m vs. 11.768m -65.780%
FY [Loss]/ profit before income tax [478.114m] vs. 27.164m -1,860.102%
FY [Loss]/ profit for the year [529.320m] vs. 13.029m -4,162.630%
Basic and diluted EPS [1.90] vs. 0.05 -3,900.000%
FY Total assets 2.587824b vs. 2.969868b -12.864%
FY Total equity 1.129578b vs. 1.837854b -38.538%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [913.362m] vs.
[442.735m] -106.300%
No dividend


GROUP RESULTS
The Group's performance was adversely impacted by closure of some of
its offshore manufacturing facilities result', in prolonged stock
shortages which depressed revenues significantly. Pricing volatility
also lead to increased cost of sales and reduced gross profit margins.
The Groups profitability was also impacted by the decision to
derecognize previous deferred tax assets due to uncertainty on the
availability of future taxable profits against which those deferred
tax assets can be utilized before expiry of their allowable lifetime.

OUTLOOK 2019
The Group has instituted measures to address and diversify its
offshore manufacturing capabilities to ensure constant product
availability. In 2019, the Group will in particular focus on
strengthening its Kenya core market and tyre retail business to drive
revenue growth.

DIVIDEND
The Board of Directors do not recommend the payment of a dividend for
the year end. 31 December 2018.

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           0.37
Total Shares Issued:          1530000000.00
Market Capitalization:        566,100,000
EPS:             -9.9
PE:                 -0.037

Mumias Sugar Company Limited HY 2019 results through 31st December
2018 vs. 31st December 2017
 HY Net revenue 25.922m vs. 680.514m -96.191%
HY Cost of sales [948.169m] vs. [1.770007b] -46.431%
HY Gross loss [922.247m] vs. [1.089493b] -15.351%
HY Fair value gain/ [Loss] on biological assets 0.030m vs. 5.065m -99.408%
HY Other operating income 4.300m vs. 2.967m +44.928%
HY Marketing and distribution costs [19.196m] vs. [45.347m] -57.669%
HY Administrative Expenses [240.034m] vs. [630.820m] -61.949%
HY Finance income [3.371m] vs. 2.732m -223.389%
HY Finance costs [812.348m] vs. [781.157m] -3.993%
HY Loss before taxation [1.992866b] vs. [2.536053b] +21.419%
HY Loss after taxation [1.534507b] vs. [1.952761b] +21.419%
Basic and diluted EPS [1.00] vs. [1.28] +21.875%
Cash and cash equivalents as at 31st December [3.347890b] vs.
[2.637417b] -26.938%

RESULTS OVERVIEW
During the six months period from July 2018 to December 2018, the
company recorded sales revenue of Kshs 25.9 million compared to Kshs
680.5 million in the six months ended 31st December 2017. The 96% drop
was occasioned by lack of product for sale following the stoppage of
the production lines during the period under review. 245,798 litres of
Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA) and 138,000 litres of Technical Alcohol
(TA) carried over from previous financial year were sold at an average
price of 96 and 20 per litre respectively. There were no sales of
sugar and export of power. The company received Kshs 4.3 million from
rentals and disposals. Cost of sales reduced by 46. to Kshs 948
million down from 1.7 billion as a result of the production stoppage.
Prudent cost management and reduced production activity yielded
significant drops in administrative costs and marketing cos. of 62.
and 58% respectively compared to previous period. Finance costs
increased by 4. to Kshs 812 million compared to Kshs 781 million as a
result of loan default penalties, interest and forex exchange losses
realized in the period. The loss after tax improved by 21% to Kshs
1.53 billion compared to Kshs 1.95 billion reported during the
previous year.

FUTURE OUTLOOK
Board and Management are optimistic that there will be improved
performance in the second half of the year through the production of
Extra Neutral Alcohol and intensified cost cutting measures on
controllable costs such as employment related expenditure, fuel,
factory spares and capital expenditure. The distillery has been
successfully positioned to operate as a distinct plant independent of
the Sugar and Cogen plant Maintenance of the sugar plant is ongoing.

The Board and Management are engaging the key stakeholders for the
turnaround of the company including consideration for a strategic
investor. Discussions with the lenders to restructure the debts and
extend the standstill arrangements are ongoing.

The recent payment of farmers' arrears by the Government of Kenya is
expected to motivate the farmers to embark on sugar cane growing.
Farmer engagement through extensions and mobilization within the cane
zone is ongoing. The Board and Management have embarked on Nucleus
estate rehabilitation and are confident that sugar production will
commence as more sugar cane is availed for milling.

DIVIDENDS
The Board of Directors does not recommend payment of an interim
dividend for the first half of the year.

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           0.37
Total Shares Issued:          1530000000.00
Market Capitalization:        566,100,000
EPS:             -9.9
PE:                 -0.037

Mumias Sugar Company Limited HY 2019 results through 31st December
2018 vs. 31st December 2017
 HY Net revenue 25.922m vs. 680.514m -96.191%
HY Cost of sales [948.169m] vs. [1.770007b] -46.431%
HY Gross loss [922.247m] vs. [1.089493b] -15.351%
HY Fair value gain/ [Loss] on biological assets 0.030m vs. 5.065m -99.408%
HY Other operating income 4.300m vs. 2.967m +44.928%
HY Marketing and distribution costs [19.196m] vs. [45.347m] -57.669%
HY Administrative Expenses [240.034m] vs. [630.820m] -61.949%
HY Finance income [3.371m] vs. 2.732m -223.389%
HY Finance costs [812.348m] vs. [781.157m] -3.993%
HY Loss before taxation [1.992866b] vs. [2.536053b] +21.419%
HY Loss after taxation [1.534507b] vs. [1.952761b] +21.419%
Basic and diluted EPS [1.00] vs. [1.28] +21.875%
Cash and cash equivalents as at 31st December [3.347890b] vs.
[2.637417b] -26.938%

RESULTS OVERVIEW
During the six months period from July 2018 to December 2018, the
company recorded sales revenue of Kshs 25.9 million compared to Kshs
680.5 million in the six months ended 31st December 2017. The 96% drop
was occasioned by lack of product for sale following the stoppage of
the production lines during the period under review. 245,798 litres of
Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA) and 138,000 litres of Technical Alcohol
(TA) carried over from previous financial year were sold at an average
price of 96 and 20 per litre respectively. There were no sales of
sugar and export of power. The company received Kshs 4.3 million from
rentals and disposals. Cost of sales reduced by 46. to Kshs 948
million down from 1.7 billion as a result of the production stoppage.
Prudent cost management and reduced production activity yielded
significant drops in administrative costs and marketing cos. of 62.
and 58% respectively compared to previous period. Finance costs
increased by 4. to Kshs 812 million compared to Kshs 781 million as a
result of loan default penalties, interest and forex exchange losses
realized in the period. The loss after tax improved by 21% to Kshs
1.53 billion compared to Kshs 1.95 billion reported during the
previous year.

FUTURE OUTLOOK
Board and Management are optimistic that there will be improved
performance in the second half of the year through the production of
Extra Neutral Alcohol and intensified cost cutting measures on
controllable costs such as employment related expenditure, fuel,
factory spares and capital expenditure. The distillery has been
successfully positioned to operate as a distinct plant independent of
the Sugar and Cogen plant Maintenance of the sugar plant is ongoing.

The Board and Management are engaging the key stakeholders for the
turnaround of the company including consideration for a strategic
investor. Discussions with the lenders to restructure the debts and
extend the standstill arrangements are ongoing.

The recent payment of farmers' arrears by the Government of Kenya is
expected to motivate the farmers to embark on sugar cane growing.
Farmer engagement through extensions and mobilization within the cane
zone is ongoing. The Board and Management have embarked on Nucleus
estate rehabilitation and are confident that sugar production will
commence as more sugar cane is availed for milling.

DIVIDENDS
The Board of Directors does not recommend payment of an interim
dividend for the first half of the year.