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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 13th of May 2019

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site


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Short Seller Bets It All on a Spectacular Market Crash @business

Horseman Capital’s Russell Clark has been bearish for more than seven
years. And if he’s wrong? “This could be my farewell interview,” he

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08-JAN-2018 :: The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy.

The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood.
Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we
are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.

Home Thoughts

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Law & Politics

 قيادي في الحرس الثوري الإيراني هدد قبل قليل بضرب القواعد الأمريكية
في قطر والإمارات وأفغانستان ويقول قاعدة العديد والظفرة لا تبعد سوى 300
كلم عن إيران وصواريخنا ستصل هذه القواعد ..محمد مجيد الأحـوازي


Translated from Arabic by Microsoft

A leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has just threatened to hit
the US bases in Qatar, the UAE and Afghanistan, saying that the base
of many and the Dafra is only 300 kilometers away from Iran and our
rockets will reach these rules.

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a common double standard whereby "politically convenient" terrorist attacks are simply reframed as "shootings" or "militancy" while "politically inconvenient" acts of resistance are smeared as "terrorism"
Law & Politics

This is because the terrorist attacks are “politically convenient” for
the US and India, with these two allies collectively commanding
impressive influence across the world’s media space, because it
targeted Chinese civilians and infrastructure as part of the ongoing
Hybrid War on CPEC. The evident purpose was to deter further
investments and visits by foreign businessmen to this strategically
significant port in the global pivot state of Pakistan, as well as to
trigger an overreaction by the security services against local Baloch.

On the opposite side of the coin, “politically inconvenient” acts of
resistance such as what the Kashmiris and Palestinians are doing
against their Indian and “Israeli” occupiers (who not coincidentally
have recently become military-strategic partners and are both allied
with the US) are smeared as “terrorism” even if they only target
soldiers and paramilitary units. Another double standard is that
international media is usually pleading for the world’s leading
economies to invest in underdeveloped “Global South” regions, yet
these same information outlets are now lending “legitimacy” to the
BLA’s terrorist crusade against China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI)
investments in Pakistani Balochistan because it serves the US’ grand
strategic purposes. Having said that, even the most casual information
consumer must sense that they’re being manipulated after the world
condemned last month’s terrorist attacks on Sri Lankan hotels but is
now silent about the latest one Pakistan’s PC Gwadar.

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Babur, William Dalrymple and "Exactly- what Iranian threats?"
Law & Politics

"Like us many have spoken over this spring, but they were gone in the
twinkling of an eye, We conquered the world with bravery and might,
but we did not take it with us to the grave." said Emperor Babur in
his contemporaneously written autobiography The Baburnama.

The reason Babur came to mind was because the historian William
Dalrymple has taken himself off to Akshikent Babur's childhood home
which is situated above the Sirdarya and has been tweeting from there.
There are many mythical tales about Babur but my favourite is the
story of Humayun.

In 1530 Humayun, Babur’s beloved eldest son and heir-apparent, was
stricken by a fever. Despite the best efforts of the royal physicians,
his condition steadily worsened.
Driven to despair, Babur consulted a man of religion who told him that
the remedy "was to give in alms the most valuable thing one had and to
seek cure from God."
Babur is said to have replied thus: "I am the most valuable thing that
Humayun possesses; than me he has no better thing; I shall make myself
a sacrifice for him. May God the Creator accept it."
Humayun possessed a priceless diamond, they said, which could be sold
and the proceeds given to the poor... Babur would not hear of it.
"What value has worldly wealth?" Babur is quoted to have said. "And
how can it be a redemption for Humayun? I myself shall be his
He walked three times around Humayun’s bed, praying: "O God! If a life
may be exchanged for a life, I who am Babur, I give my life and my
being for a Humayun."
A few minutes later, he cried: "We have borne it away, we have borne it away."
And sure enough, from that moment Babur began to sicken, while Humayun
grew slowly well. Babur died near Agra on December 21, 1530. He left
orders for his body to be buried in Kabul.

I have digressed but William Dalrymple then tweets

''Exactly- what Iranian threats?''

The US has deployed B-52 Bombers to the Middle East, the Lincoln
Strike Group and The Pentagon announced Friday that it is deploying an
amphibious assault ship and a Patriot missile battery to the Middle
East to bolster an aircraft carrier force sent to counter alleged
threats from Iran. The USS Arlington, which transports marines,
amphibious vehicles, conventional landing craft and rotary aircraft,
and the Patriot air defense system will join the USS Abraham Lincoln
Carrier Strike Group and a B-52 bomber task force headed toward the
Gulf after intelligence reports suggested Iran was planning some sort
of attack in the region.

The deployment is "in response to indications of heightened Iranian
readiness to conduct offensive operations against US forces and our
interests," the Pentagon said in a statement.

Iran has not been able to sell a single barrel of Oil since the
beginning of May as Not a single ship has been seen leaving Iran's oil
terminals so far this month [HelenCRobertson] They once sold 2.5m bpd
which equated to $100m a day. Since the beginning of May, their daily
income has been $0.00 from Oil sales. This level of financial and
coercive sanction warfare is simply unprecedented. President Trump has
been a big proponent of coercive, financial and sanction warfare and
its expression vis a vis Iran is its apogee. Marwan Bishara wrote

''These [US] demands basically constitute total Iranian surrender, not
only to the US but also to Israel and Saudi Arabia''

MK BhadraKumar writes ''If there can be a lethal game of Russian
roulette in international politics, this is it''

Russian roulette is a game of chance where players spin the cylinder
of a revolver with a single bullet in turns, put the muzzle against
their head and pull the trigger.The player has 16.67% chances of
firing a bullet into his head if there is one bullet in the 6-chamber
revolver. Each player starts by spinning the cylinder, thus each
player has an equal chance of being killed by the bullet. Quite
obviously, it’s an insane game that US President Trump started on May
8 last year. A big question can be put whether Trump himself wants
another Middle Eastern war.

The Price of Oil has surged +34.173% in 2019 and in big part because
of the ratcheting higher of tensions with Iran. No number of Trump
Tweets will dampen down the price. The Iranians will surely manage to
shutter the Straits of Hormuz even if after an asymmetric fashion.

What we know is this. Iran is at the Hunter S. Thompson[Ian] edge

  "The edge... There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over,"

If the US thinks that Tehran will just roll over, which appears to be
the case, then they are exhibiting the same deluded ideas that they
exhibited a day before the Peacock Throne got plucked.

Iran is a Geopolitical Bleeding Edge.

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Akshikent: The view Babur grew up with: huge mud brick walls, pink in the evening light, rear up over an oasis. Snowpeaks rise in the near distance @DalrympleWill
Law & Politics

Akshikent: The view Babur grew up with: huge mud brick walls, pink in
the evening light,  rear up over an oasis. Snowpeaks rise  in the near
distance; irrigated farm land stretches away from the Syr Darya as far
as the eye can see. Waterfowl call to roost below the fort walls.

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A war btw US and Iran would be a huge disaster. Don't let the genie out of the bottle.
Law & Politics

Worrying to follow the escalating  tensions btw Iran and US,supported
by Israel and Saudi.Having worked to end the Iran/Iraq war and to stem
the conflicts  in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria ,I say a war btw US and
Iran would be a huge disaster. Don’t let the genie out of the bottle.

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The USS Abraham Lincoln is replacing another carrier rotated out of the Gulf last month.
Law & Politics

“An aircraft carrier that has at least 40 to 50 planes on it and 6,000
forces gathered within it was a serious threat for us in the past but
now...the threats have switched to opportunities,” Amirali Hajizadeh,
head of the Guards’ aerospace division said.
He added, “If (the Americans) make a move we will hit them in the head.”
The commander of the Guards, Major General Hossein Salami, said in a
parliament session on Sunday that the United States has started a
psychological war in the region, according to a parliamentary
“Commander Salami, with attention to the situation in the region,
presented an analysis that the Americans have started a psychological
war because the comings and goings of their military is a normal
matter,” said Behrouz Nemati in a summary of the Salami’s comments,
according to parliament’s ICANA news site.

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"For us at GCHQ this was a largely desk screen-based campaign," said Hannigan The inside story of killing Jihadi John @thetimes
Law & Politics

With few clues to identify the Isis killer making demands on the US
government, British intelligence analysts focused on his London
accent, the veins on his knife-wielding left hand, and his posture —
and “within hours” identified him as Mohammed Emwazi.
The voice in the video was disguised. But police and security services
had been investigating Emwazi for three years before he slipped off
their radar in 2012 and fled the UK for Syria. When sound analysts got
to work, they made a match on the video, which was released on August
19, 2014.
The veins, when compared with those on the hands in an archive of
photographs, and voice recordings of phone taps held by MI5 and
Scotland Yard, confirmed it.
“We had a race to find out who he was — his size, his hands, but,
above all, his voice, made identifying him quite easy,” said Robert
Hannigan, a former director of GCHQ, the British signals intelligence
“This is just one man doing brutal things in another part of the world
[but] the effect on politics and society is profound,” he is heard to
say in the documentary.
“If you look at Emwazi as an adversary, he certainly wasn’t a glorious
battlefield commander,” he said. “He wasn’t high in the hierarchy,
such as it was, but he was a powerful and credible adversary
nonetheless. Why? He was from us. He was of us. And so he knew us
“For us at GCHQ this was a largely desk screen-based campaign,” said
Hannigan. “If you looked at a picture of Raqqa you would see these
little VSat terminals — these little satellite dishes all over the
roofs. And they were connecting direct to the internet and that is the
way that people were communicating. They were not using telephone
company GSM [Global System for Mobile communication] networks because
they didn’t trust them.”
“Because of the conditions — it was night — we were using infrared,”
said Warren, who was at the operation centre watching a live feed from
a drone that was positioned to strike Emwazi.
“You can’t see his face but we could sort of see how he moved, the cut
of his jib, so to speak. The angle of his beard, these things we could
see. Eventually we were convinced that this is Jihadi John. And so the
floor commander at the time orders, ‘Take the shot.’”
Within 15 seconds a missile obliterated Emwazi. Despite the lives he
took while playing chief hostage killer for Isis, the military and
intelligence community considered his death only a symbolic victory
against his terrorist organisation. It was not one that would have a
significant effect on Islamist extremism.
How Jihadi John was identified
Accent: This was the first giveaway to his British origins. Analysts
used sophisticated software to match his voice to recordings from
previous operations in which he was targeted.
Posture: Intelligence analysts also studied the slope of his
shoulders, his upper-body build and his demeanour.
Hand: They also focused on the left hand he used to wield the knife,
comparing the pattern of veins with that seen in older surveillance
pictures of him.

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China has made public 3 core concerns that must be addressed &it won't make concessions on. From perspective of China's politics, there is little room for compromises @HuXijin_GT
Law & Politics

China has made public 3 core concerns that must be addressed &it won't
make concessions on. From perspective of China's politics, there is
little room for compromises. They will insist.This political logic
won't be changed no matter how much additional tariffs the US will

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Yes, but his critics are also wrong. Look it's easy: if the cost of the tariffs were entirely paid by the US consumer then China would have no objection to the tariffs @MacaesBruno
Law & Politics

Yes, but his critics are also wrong. Look it’s easy: if the cost of
the tariffs were entirely paid by the US consummer (rather than
Chinese companies in price cuts or reduced market access) then China
would have no objection to the tariffs

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China and the United States are playing a perilous game of chicken in Asia-Pacific @SCMPNews
Law & Politics

United States and its allies seek to prevent a new “Peking order” in
the Indo-Pacific. China is just too big and too important for cold
war-style containment to be effective.
We are beginning to witness what the political scientist Gerald Segal
termed as “constrainment”, namely a strategy that “is intended to tell
China that the outside world has interests that will be defended by
means of incentives for good behaviour, deterrence of bad behaviour,
and punishment when deterrence fails”.
But the approach worked, he said, if and only if the US and its allies
“act in a concerted fashion both to punish and to reward China”.
Beijing’s expanding military and paramilitary deployments to the
so-called first island chain, which encompasses islands in the East
and South China seas and the Taiwan Strait, has raised concerns over
the coercive establishment of a new maritime sphere of influence.
In response, the United States is set to unveil a new “Indo-Pacific
strategy”, which aims to keep China’s maritime ambitions in check.
Acting US Secretary of Defence Patrick Shanahan will present the new
strategy at the 2019 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore later this month
US assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific security affairs
Randall Schriver said at a recent press conference in Kuala Lumpur
that the new strategy would focus on making sure that “no one country
can change international law or the status of the South China Sea, so
that’s why we conduct the freedom of navigation operations and the
other presence operations in the South China Sea”.
Through its expanded strategic presence in the area, Washington hoped
to convince Beijing against “deploy[ing] additional military systems
and in fact remove the military systems” to artificially reclaimed
islands in the South China Sea, he said.
Washington seems upbeat about signing like-minded powers and allies to
check China’s maritime ambitions.
“We’re joined by a lot of countries who see the potential erosion of
international law as a problem not only in the South China Sea but
[one that] has broader implications,” Schriver said.
On Monday, the guided-missile destroyers USS Preble and USS Chung-Hoon
sailed within 12 nautical miles of China-held Gaven and Johnson reefs
during so-called freedom of navigation operations in the South China
Three days later, for the first time in history, the United States,
Japan, India and the Philippines conducted joint freedom of navigation
exercises en route to Singapore for the second phase of the Asean
Defence Ministers Meeting Plus maritime security field training
Coming from a joint exercise in Busan, South Korea, Japan’s JS Izumo
and JS Murasame, India’s INS Kolkata and Shakti, and the Philippines’
BRP Andres Bonifacio joined the USS William P. Lawrence.
While the four countries have conducted bilateral and trilateral joint
exercises over the years, this was the first time they had held a
quadrilateral exercise of this scale.
The Philippine navy was particularly pleased with the cooperation. The
head of its delegation, Roy Vincent Trinidad, said the “group sail
showed the active participation of the Philippine navy as it
strengthens its relationships with allies and partners in the
Asia-Pacific region … [which] gives us another opportunity to learn
from like-minded navies”.
Despite warming ties between Manila and Beijing, the Philippine
military has quietly expanded security cooperation with the US and
other traditional partners amid deepening concerns over the South
China Sea disputes. Since early this year, the Philippines and China
have been at loggerheads over the latter’s deployment of an armada of
paramilitary forces to Thitu Island, Sandy Cay and other land features
under Manila’s decades-long occupation.
Later this year, the Philippines and the US are expected to formally
review their mutual defence treaty to properly respond to a new
security environment. Manila is seeking greater strategic reassurance
from Washington amid rising tensions with China.
The Philippines’ Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana told the author:
“I am dead serious [about reviewing the alliance].”
The two allies may opt for new guidelines on the treaty, which would
take into consideration the threats posed by China’s paramilitary
forces and so-called grey zone strategy.
Last month, France, a major naval power with Indo-Pacific territories,
deployed its frigate Vendemiaire to the Taiwan Strait for its own
freedom of navigation operations in Indo-Pacific waters.
A French defence ministry official defended the deployment, saying:
“France reaffirms its commitment to freedom of navigation in
accordance with the law of the sea.”
An enraged China accused the French frigate of “illegally entering
China’s territorial waters”.
Beijing has also instructed the People’s Liberation Army to remain “on
high alert and take all necessary measures” amid the United States’
and its allies’ expanded operations in the area.
But the progressive escalation of tensions carries huge risk for
regional stability.
 As Harvard academic Graham Allison said: “However unimaginable
conflict seems, however catastrophic the potential consequences for
all actors … however economically interdependent states may be – none
of these factors is sufficient to prevent war.”
Thus, it is of paramount importance for all relevant Indo-Pacific
players, including Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines, to
double down on military diplomacy and engagement amid the perilous
game of chicken on the high seas.

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Law & Politics

James Dean was an iconic American actor, who tapped into the universal
yearning and angst of nearly every adolescent human being with a raw
connection that has surely not been surpassed since.
 In one of his most consequential films, Rebel without a Cause, two
players (read, teenage boys) decide to settle a dispute (read, teenage
girl) by way of near-death experiences.
Each speeds an automobile towards a cliff. A simple rule governs the
challenge: the first to jump out of his automobile is the chicken and,
by universally accepted social convention, concedes the object in
The second to jump is victorious, and, depending on context, becomes
gang leader, prom king, etc.
Buzz, the leader of a local gang, agrees to a “Chickie Run.” Both race
stolen cars towards the edge of a cliff. The first to eject out of his
car is branded a “chickie.”
Seconds into the race, Buzz discovers that his jacket is stuck on the
door handle, making jumping out of the car so- mewhat difficult.
Jimmie jumps out an instant before the cars reach the edge of the
Buzz, still unable to free his jacket from the door handle, fails to
escape. While he won’t be branded a “chickie,” he suffers a worse

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1229
Dollar Index 97.335
Japan Yen 109.62
Swiss Franc 1.0093
Pound 1.3007
Aussie 0.6973
India Rupee 70.3615
South Korea Won 1187.40
Brazil Real 3.9609
Egypt Pound 17.1413
South Africa Rand 14.29595

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Will Africa's historic Free Trade Agreement succeed? @AJEnglish @AJInsideStory

The World Bank ranks many countries in Africa among the hardest places
to do business.
However, an ambitious project to ease trade between them is a step
closer to reality.
The African Union agreed last year to create a free trade zone on the
continent, the largest since the World Trade Organization was formed.
On Tuesday, The Gambia became the 22nd country to ratify the accord,
reaching the threshold for it to be implemented.
It's hoped the deal will reduce tariffs and trade rules, and create
jobs for a market of 1.2 billion people.
But Africa's largest economy, Nigeria, isn't on board with the agreement.
So, will the deal succeed?

Presenter: Martine Dennis


Aly-Khan Satchu - CEO of Rich Management and an emerging markets economist
Stephen Yeboah - cofounder of Commodity Monitor
Olusegun Okubanjo - founder and managing partner of finance firm OBSIDIAN

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"The future of world population growth will largely be decided in Africa" via @bopinion

The one big outlier has been sub-Saharan Africa, where the fertility
rate was still 4.8 in 2017 and hasn’t been falling as fast as some
experts expected.
As the spread between these projections indicates, long-run population
forecasting is quite the uncertain endeavor. “The future of world
population growth will largely be decided in Africa,” the creators of
the Wittgenstein forecasts write in a recent European Union report,
“with the future education of women as a main determinant of fertility
playing a key role.”

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Darfuris arriving in Khartoum last month to join demonstrations celebrating the overthrow of Omar Hassan al-Bashir.Credit Bryan Denton @nytimes

His ordeal was part of a propaganda drive orchestrated by Mr.
al-Bashir’s security services to blame the revolt on saboteurs from
Darfur, the western region where up to 300,000 people have died since
2003 in a government-sponsored campaign to subdue it through pillage,
murder and rape. The state intelligence service claimed that Mr. Omer,
along with five other Darfuri dissidents who were also forced to
appear on TV, had been trained by Israel.
That effort was an abject failure. Not only was Mr. al-Bashir ousted
by his own lieutenants in April and then sent to prison, but Darfuris
have also emerged as some of the loudest and most impassioned
supporters of Sudan’s continuing revolution. Casting aside decades of
war, suffering and racial discrimination in a country where the
epithet “slave” is still in use, Darfuris are seizing Sudan’s fragile
political opening to make their voices heard like never before.
“Today we feel proud to be Sudanese,” said Adam Osman, a 23-year-old
student from Jebel Marra, a mountainous district of Darfur that in
2016 was subjected to “scorched earth” tactics according to Amnesty
International. “We are born again; we are renewing our country. I am
flying without wings.”
Around him people chanted: “Darfur, we are with you. Darfur, you are
our brothers.”

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“The Sudanese people have finally broken the fear,” he said. “The
revolution has started a discussion among the people, created space
for unity. With that, we can make the country we want.”

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Khartoum Amira Ibrahim Mohamed Ahmed "I'm a nationalist. We are mad because they kill our children, here outside my house, and in Darfur. We want a civilian government."


Portraits from the #Khartoum sit-in. Amira Ibrahim Mohamed Ahmed came
up to me and wanted her views to be heard. “I’m a nationalist. We are
mad because they kill our children, here outside my house, and in
Darfur. We want a civilian government.”⁣

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@CyrilRamaphosa's Hard Choice: a Cabinet to Lift South African Economy @bpolitics

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s triumph in guiding his
African National Congress to a sixth straight election victory has
left him with an even more formidable challenge: to pick a cabinet
that can dismantle a shadow state of corruption and revive the
flagging economy.
His window of opportunity to install an administration free of
ministers tainted by graft and to impose tough economic reforms may
not remain open for long. The ruling party’s five- percentage-point
drop in support in the May 8 election from 2014 -- its worst showing
in a national vote since the end of apartheid -- testifies to the
public anger over “state capture,” as the looting of public funds
under his predecessor, Jacob Zuma, is known.
While Ramaphosa fired several ministers with tainted reputations when
he replaced Zuma as president last year, others kept their posts. They
include Environmental Affairs Minister Nomvula Mokonyane, who was
implicated in taking bribes during an official probe, and Bathabile
Dlamini, the minister for women’s affairs accused by the
Constitutional Court of lying under oath about her tenure at the
$11-billion-a-year welfare department, which almost collapsed. Both
deny wrongdoing.
“If ever he has had a platform to act against and cut these figures
from his cabinet, it’s now,” Susan Booysen, director of research at
the Johannesburg-based Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection,
said in an interview. “If he does not use this opening, he’s going to
lose it.”
Investors will focus on whether Tito Mboweni, appointed as finance
minister in October, retains his post. While the former central bank
governor has said publicly he would prefer to step down, his
acceptance of a nomination to parliament indicates he may be prepared
to stay on.
The president has the sole prerogative to select ministers from the
National Assembly’s 400 lawmakers, although he can choose two from
people outside its ranks.
Ramaphosa hasn’t revealed his preferences, but the ANC’s list of
candidate lawmakers gives an indication of who’s in the running. They
include most members of the current cabinet, including Mboweni, Deputy
President David Mabuza, Energy Minister Jeff Radebe, Public
Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan and Mineral Resources Minister
Gwede Mantashe.
Mokonyane and Dlamini also made the cut, as did Malusi Gigaba, who
resigned as home affairs minister after a court found he’d lied under
oath and a compromising video of him was circulated on social media.
The new administration needs to move speedily to revive an economy
that has expanded at an annual pace of less than 1.5% for the past
four years and tackled a 27 percent unemployment rate by reducing
policy uncertainty and bolstering private investment, according to
Raymond Parsons, a professor at the North West University’s School of
Business and Governance.
The economy hasn't grown by more than 2% annually since 2013
“A key test will include the selection of a credible and streamlined
cabinet that also enjoys the confidence of business and the markets,”
he said.
Before the election, Ramaphosa’s reticence to carry out a clean sweep
may stem from his tenuous hold on the ANC in the aftermath of a
hard-fought internal election that’s left the party deeply divided has
resulted in some Zuma allies remaining in top party posts.
Ramaphosa, who’s due to be elected at the new parliament’s first
sitting on May 22 and sworn in three days later, called his outgoing
cabinet of 34 ministers and 35 deputies a holding administration.
While Fikile Mbalula, the ANC’s head of elections, said Ramaphosa had
the party’s full backing to trim the cabinet and it may be reduced to
fewer than 30 ministers, party Secretary-General Ace Magashule said
the matter has yet to be discussed.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.67% 2019

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.2825


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.1413


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +8.33% 2019


This image of #Lagos, #Nigeria in the rain by photographer Ben
Sutherland, via @Flickr @africasacountry


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -8.22% 2019


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -6.34% 2019


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Uganda monthly earnings from Rwanda drop by 81%

Uganda’s monthly export earnings to Rwanda dropped by a whopping 81%
in March as the impact of border closure becomes clear.
According to figures compiled by the Bank of Uganda (BOU), Uganda
earned $2.64m (Shs 9.8bn) in March 2019, down from $14.51m (Shs 55bn)
in February – a drop of $11.8m (Shs 44bn).
Meanwhile, monthly earnings from Kenya jumped up, indication traders
found an alternative as they wait for Kampala and Kigali to sort their
issues. Uganda earned $26.4m in exports from Kenya up from $19m earned
in February 2019.
Rwanda accuses Uganda of supporting rebels that want to overthrow the
Kigali administration. Uganda has dismissed the accusations as untrue.
They consequently closed the Kyanika and Katuna border posts and
stopped their citizens from crossing into Uganda.

Un œuvre de la photographe sud-africaine Zanele Muholi exposée à
la Biennale de Venise, en Italie, le 8 mai 2019. TIZIANA FABI / @AFP


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Wall Street's Silence Is Deafening as @CitronResearch Takes Aim at the @amazon of Africa @business

It’s all quiet on Wall Street when it comes to Citron Research founder
Andrew Left’s latest target, e-commerce company Jumia Technologies AG.
After a report from the short-seller stoked a 19% decline on Thursday,
Wall Street analysts were nowhere to be found to pound the table and
defend the company that has been dubbed the Amazon.com Inc. of Africa.
The slump continued Friday with shares erasing a fifth of its market
value in that session alone.
The sell-side silence stands in stark contrast to the typical response
from the big banks that cover some of Left’s most recent targets. When
Citron cautiously mentioned Chegg Inc. in March, saying the stock
“could be a 0,” analysts including Jefferies Brent Thill ripped the
commentary as silly.
To be sure, six of seven Wall Street analysts tracking Jumia rate it
at the equivalent of a hold, albeit with a price target 73% above
today’s level. Prior to the latest seven-day slide that’s cut Jumia’s
market value in half, the stock was up more than 220% so far in 2019.

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"Witch doctors are there in society. No one has been denied the chance to visit them. What is the farce about it?" @RailaOdinga @StandardKenya
Kenyan Economy

The ODM leader was responding to critics who have been referring to
him as yule mganga (that witchdoctor) during rallies.
“I am not a witch doctor and I have never been one. Whether you abuse
Raila using derogatory words or not, it will add no value to your
political discourse,” he remarked.

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Kenya Eurobond yields soar w/w on announcement that Kenya is targeting to issue additional Eurobonds totalling Kshs. 250 billion. @MihrThakar
Kenyan Economy

5-year +0.498% to 5.658%
10-Year 2024 +0.244% to 6.576%
10-Year 2028 +0.280% to 7.525%
30-Year +0.246% to 8.519%

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yields on the 10-year Eurobond rose by 0.2% points to 7.5% while the yield on the 30-year Eurobond rose by 0.3% points to 8.5%
Kenyan Economy

For the February 2018 Eurobond issue, yields on the 10-year Eurobond
rose by 0.2% points to 7.5% from 7.3%, recorded the previous week
while the yield on the 30-year Eurobond rose by 0.3% points to 8.5%
from 8.2%, recorded the previous week.

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Mobile cash transactions hit Sh1.1trn in quarter one @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

The volume of money moved through mobile phones in the first three
months of the year rose 10.7 per cent to Sh1.1 trillion, underlining
the growing importance of digital wallets in the economy.
This is the first time the value of first quarter transactions has
crossed Sh1 trillion mark, having grown consistently from Sh650
billion in the first quarter of 2015.
Newly published data by Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows the
transactions in March rose by 12.3 per cent to Sh368.39 billion, an
all-time high in a single month.

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Abraaj demise shakes East Africa's private equity East African
Kenyan Economy

It is estimated that by the time of its demise last year, Abraaj had
invested over Ksh320 billion ($3.2 billion) in 80 transactions across
Africa, with an estimated $13.6 billion worth of assets under
management across Africa, Middle East and South Asia.
Among Abraaj’s success stories in Africa are its cornerstone
investments in Liberty Star Consumer Holdings (one of South Africa's
leading FMCG manufacturers), Java House (Nairobi-based East Africa’s
leading coffee chain), and Joint Medical Holdings (a hospital group in
South Africa).
Abraaj filed for provisional liquidation in 2018 following a dispute
with its investors including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and
the International Finance Corporation over the alleged misuse of a $1
billion healthcare fund.
Following the filing of its liquidation, Abraaj is liquidating its
investments across different markets.
As a result of the turmoil, Abraaj’s investors voted in favour of an
international private equity firm, Actis to take charge of its
operations in the Middle East and North Africa.
In October last year Actis, the British private equity firm tabled
intentions to acquire Abraaj Holdings’ Kenyan assets including Java
House operations and a 10 per cent stake in Brookside Dairy Africa.
The takeover bid however excluded Abraaj’s interests in Kenya’s
healthcare facilities Avenue, Nairobi Women’s, Metropolitan and Ladnan
Hospitals, which were acquired using funds from an independent kitty,
Growth Markets Fund Health Fund.
The latter fund, whose investors include the Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation, was used to finance the acquisition of healthcare projects
in Kenya, Pakistan and Niger.
According to Reuters, Abraaj’s founder Arif Naqvi was arrested in
Britain in April and is awaiting potential extradition to the United
States where he faces charges of defrauding investors. He has
maintained his innocence
In January of this year, the Competition Authority of Kenya approved a
proposal by Actis to acquire Abraaj’s interest Java House.
And last week US private equity firm TPG said it had signed a
definitive agreement to take over the management of Abraaj’s Growth
Markets Fund Health Fund, and it will be renamed Evercare Health Fund.
TPG said the healthcare fund will continue with its critical mission
of providing affordable and high-quality service across Africa and
South Asia.
Besides the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, other investors are the
Overseas Private Investment Corp, IFC, CDC Group, Proparco, Philips
and Medtronic.

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Crown Paints Kenya Ltd FY 2018 EPS -17.834%
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           80.00
Total Shares Issued:          71181000.00
Market Capitalization:        5,694,480,000
EPS:             2.58
PE:              31.00

Crown Paints Kenya PLC FY 2018 results through 31st December 2018 vs.
31st December 2017
Total Assets 5.475693b vs. 5.871607b -6.743%
Equity 1.026860b vs. 1.757616b -41.577%
FY Revenue 8.315910b vs. 7.351326b +13.121%
FY Profit before tax 395.935m vs. 398.129m -0.551%
FY Profit for the year 183.813m vs. 223.294m -17.681%
FY Other comprehensive income [9.293m] vs. 6.371m -245.864%
Basic and diluted EPS 2.58 vs. 3.14 -17.834%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 332.264m vs.
[114.676m] +389.742%
Final dividend 0.60 vs. 0.60 –

For the year ended 31 December 2018, revenues during the year 2018
grew by 13% (965 million) in comparison with a 0.05% (3.8 million) for
the year 2017.
However, the profit before tax during 2018 dropped by 1% (2 Million)
when compared to a 46% (126 Million) growth during 2017.
In Kenya, we had a stable economic growth, as the country’s economy
recovered from the effects of the year 2017 slowed down economic
growth because of the prolonged election period.
As a result, the business environment improved as political stability
and business confidence increased which has seen an increase in output
from the real estate and manufacturing sectors.
On the regional scenario, the Group fortunes were not the same. In
Rwanda and Uganda, the political environment did not lead to a revamp
in market activity especially in the construction sector.
In Tanzania, the market faced the risks of slower growth due to
uncertainty in the business environment, hence, profitability for the
group remained under pressure.
Despite all the above the Group’s 2018 performance improved as the
directors continued to manage the cost of doing business in line with
the revenues generated.
 Profit before tax for 2018 dropped to KShs. 396 Million (2017 – 398
Million). The Board of Directors remain optimistic on the performance
for 2019 and will undertake the necessary initiatives to ensure that
the company remains profitable whilst caring for the environment and
the community.
The Board of Directors has recommended a final dividend of KShs. 0.60
for 2018 (KShs. 0.60 in 2017) per share.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.65% 2019


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.81% 2019


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2019

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