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Macro Thoughts |
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My @realvision interview is out! @TonyNashOnAsia We discussed #China, #tradewar, $CNY, soybeans, corn, #DXY ( $USD), the #ECB, etc. Africa |
Published on: May 16th, 2019 • Duration: 32 minutes • Topic: China, Debt, Demographics, Yuan, Credit-cycle, Macro Tony Nash, founder of Complete Intelligence, sifts through the noise regarding the trade war and discusses his current view on China. He highlights the extreme buildup in debt over the past 20 years, discusses the country’s poor demographics, and reviews where he thinks the Chinese Yuan is headed next, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on May 15, 2019.
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China's latest retaliatory measure to raise tariffs on around $60 billion of U.S. goods may be about to push up prices for fans of American periodicals, lovers of a vodka-based cocktails, and anyone who wears makeup. Law & Politics |
Importers of U.S. seawater and reptiles are also in line for higher prices. Tariffs will go up to 25% on around $900 million worth of beauty and skincare products, including perfume, eye and lip make-up, nail polish and pressed powder. After-shave, shampoo, hair gel, tooth paste, dental floss, and mouthwash are also subject to higher duties. In fact, beauty products were the second biggest category behind liquefied natural gas in terms of value traded in 2018, among those subject to the tariff hike from 10% to 25%. These are just some of the 4,545 U.S. goods that will see raised import taxes from June 1. Juice made from oranges, grapefruits, pineapples or coconuts are also on the list, as are vodka, gin, rum and tequila. And tomato lovers may be hit as $4 million worth of preserved tomatoes, ketchup, tubs of tomato paste, and juice are also subject to the hike. The lists also include $203 million of “newspapers, journals and periodicals appearing less than four times a week,” printed books, dictionaries and encyclopedias. Musical instruments like pianos, electric keyboards, harmonicas, percussion and brass-wind instruments, along with manuscript and printed music also face higher import taxes.
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.@realDonaldTrump's @Huawei Threat Is the Nuclear Option to Halt China's Rise @economics Law & Politics |
The Trump administration is pulling out the big guns in its push to slow China’s rise, with potentially devastating consequences for the rest of the world. The White House on Wednesday initiated a two-pronged assault on China: barring companies deemed a national security threat from selling to the U.S., and threatening to blacklist Huawei Technologies Co. from buying essential components. If it follows through, the move could cripple China’s largest technology company, depress the business of American chip giants from Qualcomm Inc. to Micron Technology Inc., and potentially disrupt the rollout of critical 5G wireless networks around the world. “The Trump administration action is a grave escalation with China,” Eurasia Group analysts Paul Triolo, Michael Hirson and Jeffrey Wright wrote in a note. If fully implemented, the blacklist would “put at risk both the company itself and the networks of Huawei customers around the world, as the firm would be unable to upgrade software and conduct routine maintenance and hardware replacement.” The threat is likely to elevate fears in Beijing that President Donald Trump’s broader goal is to contain China, leading to a protracted cold war between the world’s biggest economies. In addition to a trade fight that has rattled global markets for months, the U.S. has pressured both allies and foes to avoid using Huawei for 5G networks that will form the backbone of the modern economy. “@Huawei 5G, RIP. Thanks for playing,” U.S. Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, wrote on Twitter. U.S. suppliers to Huawei including Lumentum Holdings Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. are indicated to open lower in pre-market trading, after shares in Asian suppliers including Sunny Optical Technology Group and AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. dropped as much as 5% on Thursday. In Europe, STMicroelectronics NV fell, while Huawei competitor Nokia Oyj gained 2%. Huawei has said it devotes about a third of its budget -- some $11 billion annually -- to the acquisition of American components. It counts 33 U.S. companies among its top 92 suppliers. “The negative impact on the global 5G market will be significant,” said Charlie Dai, a Beijing-based analyst at Forrester Research, nothing that Huawei is one of the market leaders globally. “Nokia and Cisco could address the gap to some extent, but the overall adoption will be slowed down, which eventually will be harmful to telco carriers and consumers around the world.” The Commerce Department said Wednesday it will soon put Huawei on an “Entity List” -- meaning any U.S. company will need a special license to sell products to the world’s largest networking gear maker. Since American companies dominate semiconductors, that could smother Huawei’s production of everything from 5G base stations to mobile phones. It may not even be able to use Google’s Android, the most popular operating system globally for smartphones. A similar move last year against ZTE Corp. -- China’s second-biggest telecom equipment company -- nearly forced the company out of business. "This could potentially lead to Huawei’s destruction,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “You can’t underestimate the significance. It’s their most important company and threatening it in this way will generate a massive public response as well as from the Chinese government. The bilateral trade talks were on thin ice and this could derail them entirely.” At the heart of Trump’s concerted campaign is suspicion that Huawei aids Beijing in espionage while spearheading China’s ambitions of becoming a technology superpower. The Justice Department also accuses it of willfully violating sanctions on Iran, and last year engineered the arrest of the eldest daughter of Huawei’s billionaire founder. Huawei, which has denied those allegations, said Thursday it was “ready and willing” to engage with the U.S. to ensure product security. Restricting it from doing business “will only serve to limit the U.S. to inferior yet more expensive alternatives,” it said in a statement. “We resolutely object to any country, based on their own laws, unilaterally sanctioning Chinese entities,” Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said at a regularly scheduled briefing in Beijing Thursday. “We also object to the generalization of the national security concept and abuse of export control methods.” If the U.S. handicaps Huawei by cutting off suppliers, countries and telecoms carriers around the world that are already spending billions to build 5G networks may have to resort to pricier equipment from Nokia Oyj and Ericsson AB. Tying up a chunk of the world’s 5G gear supply would slow the build-out of a technology that underpins future services from self-driving cars to smart homes and advanced medicine. Huawei appears to have anticipated this possibility. It’s been developing and designing its own chips for years, which it now uses in many of its own smartphones. It’s reportedly even developing its own operating software to run phones and servers. For now, though, it remains heavily reliant on American technology. Huawei’s base station, smartphone, server and maritime cable businesses simply cannot run without Qualcomm baseband and processor chips. There are alternatives -- but from American peers such as Intel Corp., Micron and Broadcom Corp. It also depends on smaller American suppliers in key areas: Lumentum Holdings Inc. for optical cable; Amphenol for fiber-optic connectors; Inphi Corp. for analog chips; Qorvo Inc. and Analog Devices Inc. for radio-frequency semiconductors in both 4G and 5G; and Western Digital Corp. for storage. Texas Instruments Inc. supplies it with digital signal processing chips. Huawei even uses Oracle Corp. software in products sold to state-owned companies. ZTE provides a roadmap for what may happen next. Huawei’s much smaller rival in 2017 ran afoul of the Commerce Department for violating the same Iranian sanctions, and then lying about it. The subsequent ban on American exports pushed the company to the brink of extinction, before Trump intervened as part of trade negotiations with Beijing. A blanket ban would hurt not just U.S. companies, but also alienate American allies around the world. Many have resisted Washington’s attempts to steer them away from Huawei, for reasons ranging from economics to just the simple fact that the Shenzhen-based company’s 5G technology is for now considered superior. That’s why some observers, including the Eurasia Group, argue that the White House is unlikely to bring the full force of a blacklist to bear. Instead, it argued, the Trump administration is likely to issue export licenses to all of its American companies while retaining the option in future to pull them if needed. Roger Sheng at market research firm Gartner Inc. draws parallels with the Chinese fable of the Monkey King, whose powers are constrained by a magic circlet that his handler constricts -- painfully -- when the deity misbehaves. “The U.S. is putting a circlet around the head of Huawei,” said Sheng, who is based in Shanghai. “The impact goes well beyond its 5G ambitions because without American suppliers like Qualcomm and Marvell, it can’t even maintain normal operations.”
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Strange things are afoot in the Strait of Hormuz @TheEconomist Law & Politics |
WHEN DONALD TRUMP hired John Bolton to be his national security adviser, he reportedly joked that the mustachioed hawk was “going to get us into a war”. It is easy to see why. When serving under George W. Bush, Mr Bolton embellished intelligence on Cuban and Syrian weapons and lobbied hard for the invasion of Iraq. After leaving government he argued that America should bomb Iran to set back its nuclear programme. Now that he’s back, he appears to be on the warpath once again.
It was Mr Bolton, not the commander-in-chief, who announced on May 5th that America had dispatched an aircraft-carrier strike group and bombers to the Persian Gulf. This was in response to undisclosed intelligence which, unnamed officials claimed, showed that Iran and its proxies were planning attacks on American forces (or its allies) in the region. On May 9th Mr Bolton reviewed war plans, updated at his request, that call for sending up to 120,000 troops to the Middle East if Iran attacks or restarts work on nuclear weapons, according to the New York Times. Such planning is not a sign of imminent conflict. But Mr Trump is reported to be telling that joke again, now with more seriousness, as Mr Bolton also ratchets up pressure on Venezuela.
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27-NOV-2017 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!" International Trade |
Bitcoin has been the top- performing currency every year since 2010, except 2014, and this year at +900%, the return has been parabolic (off the charts). The parabola was described thus by Thomas Pynchon “But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It Is the parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe- that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’ If you spend your life deeply immersed in the markets, then it is necessary to sniff out these parabolic moves. And it’s better to do right than say right as Edwin Lefevre noted nearly a century ago.
Or as T.S Eliot said in The Hollow Men
Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom.
This, you will agree, is mind-boggling inflation. In my experience, when I have found myself riding a tiger by its tail, the key issue is the getting off and not trying to run the trade for every penny.
‘’One of the few men to get out in time before the Wall Street crash of 1929 did so – legend has it – because he was offered a stock tip by the boy who shined his shoes. He immediately sold all his holdings. If the mania for gambling on the stock market had reached down to the children on the streets, the bubble must have been due to pop at any moment. The corresponding moment for the cryptocurrency bubble will only be discernible in retrospect, but we have some pretty strong candidates already. The endorsement of one project by the reality TV star Paris Hilton has already happened.’’ There are many cryptocurrency schemes which are sold on the same grounds as the greatest South Sea Bubble prospectus: “For carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.” My investment thesis at the start of the year was that Bitcoin was going to get main-streamed in 2017. It has main-streamed beyond my wildest dreams, therefore, I am now sidelined. Let me leave you with Hunter S.Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”
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Africa |
What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun. We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event. Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina Faso achieved escape velocity. Overthrowing incumbents is all about acceleration, momentum and speed best characterised by the German word ‘Blitzkrieg’.
Nigeria alone is predicted to double to 400 million people by the middle of the century, making it the world’s third-most populous country after China and India. Sub-Saharan Africa’s per-capita gross domestic product has climbed 40% since the start of the century to $1,652, compared with $1,987 in India.
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SUDAN Cutting a deal on a knife-edge @Africa_Conf Africa |
From armed clashes to roundtable talks to threats of a walk-out, the transition jolts from crisis to crisis Veering from armed clashes to roundtable talks, the negotiations between the ruling generals and civilian activists remain fraught, with hundreds of thousands of protesters camped outside key military installations in Khartoum. One day after several fatal shootings in the capital on 14 May, the generals and the activists agreed on a three-year political transition. The outline of the deal – with civilians and military officers sharing power on a sovereign national council with 11 members, a civilian-dominated council of 17 ministers and a legislature of some 150 representatives with a definitive, negotiated end to the country's armed conflicts – was announced jointly by the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Declaration for Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF). That left a critical issue unsettled: the balance of power between the military and civilians on the sovereign national council. Then, late on 15 May, when the issue was due to be resolved, the civilian negotiators said the military was refusing to continue negotiations until all the protesters had dismantled the sit-in around Alqiyada al Amaah, the military headquarters in the capital. Other reports point to more splintering among the military and security units, all concerned about their loss of power and financial autonomy in a civilian-led transition. General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as 'Hemeti', deputy leader of the TMC and Commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), had already said he would not tolerate 'chaos' and the interruption of business in the capital by the protesters, despite his earlier support for the sit-in (AC Vol 60 No 8, The revolution rumbles on). A mercurial figure, Hemeti had tried to burnish his street cred by publicly supporting the protesters, claiming he had deployed some of his forces to protect them against attacks by armed units under the command of Salah Mohamed Abdallah 'Gosh' and the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS). This time it looked even murkier. In the days leading up to the shootings on 13 May, the RSF deployed hundreds more armed pick-up trucks around the military HQ, encircling the main protest site. On 12 May, the more than 20 groups and parties making up the DFCF called for an escalation of protests and strikes backing a transfer of power to civilians and an agreement to be signed within 72 hours. The following day, protesters put up brick and iron barricades along Nile Street at the back of the University of Khartoum stopping traffic along one of the city's main arteries. The sit-in outside the military HQ had already blocked goods trains on the main west-east railway line into the capital. That evening, several reporters saw fighters dressed in RSF uniforms shoot into the crowds of protesters around the Nile Street barricades. The shooting went on into the night as unarmed protesters crawled behind cars, parked alongside the riverside cafés. Armed men also fired tear gas canisters into the crowd, later beating some of those who could not get away. Khalid Omer, Secretary General of the Sudanese Congress Party and a leading member of the DFCF said his organisation held the TMC responsible for the shootings. The United States Embassy backed that view, saying the security forces actions had 'led directly to unacceptable violence that the TMC was unable to control.' One of the first tests of the new transitional authority will be to oversee an investigation into those shootings, and all the violence by state forces that resulted in over 90 protesters being killed over the past five months. It could reveal continuing rivalries between armed factions as well as the ability of the civilians to confront the military. That will get harder as the transition moves on. The next six months will be dominated by negotiations between the transitional authority and armed opposition groups such as the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Minni Minawi, the Justice and Equality Movement led by Jibril Ibrahim and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement–North whose factions are led by Malik Agar and Yasir Arman (AC Vol 57 No 22, The securocrats get stronger). The first phase will be for the new government to sign peace treaties with each faction. Since the ousting of Beshir, almost all the armed groups have agreed a bilateral ceasefire with the TMC. Bringing all the factions into a coherent transitional authority and a reformed military is likely to take most of the three years available. Jealous of its firepower, political and financial autonomy, the military commanders will try to dominate the reform programme. Aside from calculations of military force, the other factor will be the government's financial weakness and the urgent need to cut state spending. The economic strategies drawn up by technocrats close to the DFCF all envisage substantial shifts in state spending towards the wider economy, administration and social services but away from the security-centric budgets under Beshir. When asked about how the transitional authority would be able to take down this system, Lt Gen Shamsudeen al Kabbashi, spokesman for the TMC, replied: 'We have to dismantle it together'. But he admitted that it could take decades. That suggests a project well beyond the planned transition and raises questions about the good faith of the military, many of whose senior officers were direct beneficiaries of the Islamist Deep State. As negotiations over the transition move into the details of economic and political reform, both soldiers and civilians are preparing their teams. Neither side was well known to the public before 10 April. The Declaration for Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF), founded on 1 January as an amalgam between civic groups such as the Sudan Professionals' Association and established parties, has led civilian negotiators. The DFCF is yet to choose a leader to be the top civilian in the transition, probably an executive prime minister. The main names in contention are: Mudawi Ibrahim Adam, an engineer and human rights activist, formerly a political detainee in Kobar prison; Muntasir el Tayeb Ibrahim, a professor of microbiology at University of Khartoum and a leading force in the political agenda of the DFCF along with his academic colleagues; and Abdalla Hamdok, special advisor to the Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank and a former Deputy Executive Director of the UN's Economic Commission for Africa (AC Vol 52 No 1, Freedom – North and South & AC Vol 53 No 12, The new Thabo Mbeki). On the military side, two men dominate for now and are likely to hold the ring in the proposed sovereign national council. They are Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman Burhan, head of the Transitional Military Council; and Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti', deputy head of the TMC and Commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Burhan is taciturn and stolid but thought to have kept his distance from the Islamist factions that had penetrated the army under the rule of President Omer el Beshir. With over 180,000 forces under his command, Burhan should be the senior partner in this ruling duo. But his relationship with Hemeti is complex. Hemeti's troops in the RSF number about a third of the regular army but their salaries average twice as much and they are better equipped. Burhan and Hemeti's relationship dates back to Darfur in 2003. Then, Burhan was commanding a military unit and worked with local militias to attack opponents of Beshir's regime. One of those militias was the Janjaweed, commanded by Hemeti, whose family hails from Chad.
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MTN Nigeria debuts in Lagos in $6.5 billion listing Reuters Africa |
MTN Nigeria, owned by South Africa’s MTN Group, listed in Lagos on Thursday in a 2 trillion naira ($6.54 billion) flotation turning the telecoms company into the exchange’s second-largest stock by market value. MTN Nigeria’s shares climbed 10 percent from their listing price of 90 naira after the float went live. The company, which had 52.3 million users in Nigeria as of 2017, has had fraught relations with the Nigerian authorities, including disputes over SIM cards and tax payments. The listing follows MTN Group’s agreement with Nigerian regulators to settle most of those long-running disputes. However, the company is still in the middle of a $2 billion tax row with Nigeria’s attorney general, which the company says is delaying a further sale of shares and a public offering. Once that matter is resolved, MTN will sell more shares to the public, and seek to increase local ownership of MTN Nigeria to 35% from the current roughly 20%, its finance chief told investors in Lagos earlier on Thursday, according to two of those investors. Just before the flotation, parent MTN Group owned 78.8% of the Nigerian business. MTN Nigeria accounts for a third of the Johannesburg parent’s core profit.
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Sonangol's head rolls @Africa_Conf Africa |
The state oil company’s chair took the blame for chronic fuel shortages but there are deeper currents at work The sacking of Sonangol chair Carlos Saturnino Guerra Sousa e Oliveira on 8 May is a deeply political affair, according to sources in Luanda. Saturnino replaced the billionaire Isabel dos Santos as CEO of the state oil company in late 2017, only two months after President João Lourenço took office in what was then seen as one of his boldest moves against the business and patronage network built during the 37-year reign of his predecessor, José Eduardo dos Santos .
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@Total CEO says planned buy of Anadarko's Africa assets 'perfectly fitting' @ReutersAfrica Africa |
French energy giant Total SA’s planned acquisition of U.S. firm Anadarko’s African assets is “perfectly fitting” with the company’s overall strategy and helps play to its strengths, Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne said on Thursday. Total agreed to buy all of Anadarko’s oil-and-gas-producing assets outside the United States, including its biggest future expense, a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique, for $8.8 billion. The deal is contingent on the wider, $38 billion proposed takeover of Anadarko Petroleum Corp by Occidental Petroleum Corp, which last month outmaneuvered rival Chevron, the No. 2 U.S. oil producer, which had also bid for Anadarko. Speaking at an event in Washington, Pouyanne said the oil major has had its eyes on Anadarko’s Africa assets, which stretch from Algeria to South Africa, for more than a year. “What we tell to investors is we play to our strengths. What are the strengths of Total? It is the Middle East, Africa, North Sea, Deep Water. ... It is just fitting exactly and perfectly with what we announced,” Pouyanne said. Pouyanne’s move to buy Anadarko’s assets, the French firm’s biggest acquisition since taking over Elf almost two decades ago, will bolster his effort to refocus Total on operations in Africa, the North Sea, deep offshore and liquefied natural gas. “In fact...we have been looking at these assets more than a a year. We have had some discussions before with Anadarko,” Pouyanne said. “It was not a lot of creativity to fix that these assets are not very well fitting for upstream and that there was a potential match between Oxy and Total.” “So it’s just a matter of sending an email to my colleague, then I was ringing her,” Pouyanne said, in apparent reference to Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub, who put together a strategy that beat Chevron, which is nearly five times larger than Occidental. Total has built up a strong balance sheet under Pouyanne since the 2014 oil price crash, giving him the firepower to swoop on Anadarko’s assets. The company has made acquisitions worth almost $20 billion in the past five years, under Pouyanne’s leadership. It took Pouyanne and a small group of advisers just days to line up Total’s bid for Anadarko’s Africa assets and by keeping those in the know to a minimum, the French CEO was able to stay flexible in negotiations, take a swift decision and ensure there were no leaks before the announcement.
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Kenya Eurobond Pricing 'Favorable' Despite Lack of @IMFNews Deal @markets Kenyan Economy |
Investors didn’t punish Kenya in its latest Eurobond placement and demanded relatively low premiums despite the East African nation’s lack of precautionary measures to guard against exogenous shocks to its balance of payments. Kenya’s $900 million seven-year bonds were priced at 7% and its 12-year paper for $1.2 billion received 8%. Following in Ghana’s footsteps, the East African nation went to the market without a standby facility from the International Monetary Fund. “It’s a very favorable rate given that Kenya hasn’t finalized an agreement with the IMF,” said Vinita Kotedia, macro-strategist for sub-Saharan Africa at EFG-Hermes. “It looks like investors were more focused on the credibility of debt issues out of Kenya, and they aren’t too worried.” The pricing was much lower than the initial pricing thoughts of 7.5% and 8.5% and the fair-value prices of 7.125% and 8.125%, the Treasury said Thursday in a statement on its website. Ghana’s seven-year Eurobonds issued in March were priced at 7.875% while its 12-year securities were at 8.125%. The West African oil and cocoa producer received almost $20 billion in offers and took $3 billion in three-tranche maturities that included 31-year paper. Investors placed bids for a total $9.5 billion, an “indication of Kenya’s good macro-economic backdrop as well as broader appetite for African paper,” according to Neville Mandimika and Celeste Fauconnier, analysts at FirstRand Ltd.’s Johannesburg-based Rand Merchant Bank unit. While Kenyan Treasury officials begun the roadshow last week, the ongoing dispute between the U.S. and China over tariffs could have delayed the issue, they said. “However, given the current yield curve, the pricing is favorable and provides a conducive backdrop for the new issuance to compress in the secondary market,” the RMB analysts said in an emailed note. Kenya should ideally have gone to market two months ago, according to Jibran Qureishi, a regional economist at Nairobi-based Stanbic Holdings Plc. Investors haven’t shrugged off IMF concerns, but rather consoled themselves that Kenya failed to meet fiscal targets set out in the previous precautionary arrangement, he said. “There’s a broad consensus and agreement that Kenya does not face a balance of payments crisis similar to a country like Zambia,” he said by phone. “The market will still pay close attention to the IMF in the coming months and they’ll probably be keen to see whether Kenya gets the IMF facility back on board,” Qureishi said. Kenyan Eurobonds due next month added 3 basis points to 6.248% by 3:56 p.m. in Nairobi, while those maturing in June 2024 lost 6 basis points to 6.346%. “The pricing and the shorter maturities than originally planned indicate a decreased appetite for Kenyan debt among investors. This could be due to concern about the debt buildup and the cost-efficiency of flagship projects such as the standard-gauge railway.” --Mark Bohlund, economist
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