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Tuesday 11th of June 2019 |
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Macro Thoughts |
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The Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges, or INSTEX Europe Tests the Boundaries on Iran @ForeignAffairs Law & Politics |
With the European Union’s blessing, the three states established a special channel that shields trade with Iran from U.S. sanctions. The Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges, or INSTEX, as the channel is called, holds out the possibility that Europe can yet salvage the nuclear agreement’s core bargain: that Iran was to limit its nuclear activities in return for the normalization of economic relations. The preservation of this arrangement will depend not only on the modicum of European-Iranian trade that INSTEX might help preserve but on whether Europe can navigate a narrow path between what Iran expects and what the United States can tolerate.
In recent months, dozens of international companies have left Iran, the country’s oil exports have halved, its national currency has tumbled in value, and inflation has soared. Iran’s parliamentary think tank has issued a bleak forecast, suggesting that, in the more optimistic of two scenarios, the country could expect -2.6 percent growth this year and -4.5 percent next year. The country’s president has assessed the economic situation as the direst in the four decades since the 1979 revolution.
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"Salvator Mundi" is being kept on superyacht Serene owned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman @business Law & Politics |
The yacht’s location as of May 26 was in the Red Sea off Sharm el-Sheikh, an Egyptian resort town on the Sinai Peninsula, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data. ‘‘Salvator Mundi,” whose provenance has been questioned, will remain aboard MBS’s 439-foot (134-meter) Serene until the Saudis create a planned cultural hub in the Kingdom’s Al-Ula region, Artnet said. The project was in an “exploratory phase,” a spokesman for the commission overseeing the plan said in December. Experts at the Louvre have attributed the work to Da Vinci’s workshop, rather than to the artist alone, according to a published report. Celine Dauvergne, a spokeswoman for the Louvre, declined to comment on the painting’s attribution, but said the Paris museum has asked to borrow the work for an October exhibition.
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10-JUN-2019 :: Hugh Masakela said "I want to be there when the People start to turn it around" Law & Politics |
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” said Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. The ''Zeitgeist'' of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ''zeitgeist'' of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment. Charles Onyango-Obbo @cobbo3 tweeted ''Police teargas Malawi protests against Mutharika’s election “theft [aka the ''Tippex'' solution] In Liberia demos against corruption –Weah shutters internet. In Sudan military slaughter 100 in continuing pro-democracy protests – weeks after Bashir fell. In Algeria Bouteflika ousted by protestors. What's up?'' Indeed What's up? Lets start in Khartoum. The ''zeitgeist'' of the Revolution was as intoxicating as the Oudh that the Saudi Arabian Ambassador once gave me and I found myself semi delirious intoxicated on my own perfume. The exquisite murals, the composition of the crowds, the element of Girl Power which spoke to hope and a Future. As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a Portal into a whole new another Normal. David Pilling in the Financial Times captured the Essence by quoting William Wordsworth, who wrote of the French Revolution: OH! pleasant exercise of hope and joy! For mighty were the auxiliars which then stood Upon our side, we who were strong in love! Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!-- Not in Utopia, subterranean fields, Or some secreted island, Heaven knows where! But in the very world, which is the world Of all of us,--the place where in the end We find our happiness, or not at all! And then Darfur came to Khartoum, he concluded or was it Tiananmen and Tahrir Square? And now we have two visions of the Future. One Vision played out on our screens, the Protestors could have been our Wives, our Children, our Daughters and Sons. The Other Vision is that of MBS, MBZ and Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw. Vladimir and Xi backed the Gulf and America is below the radar. Hugh Masakela said ''I want to be there when the People start to turn it around'' Sudan is a Masakela Pivot moment, Down South The Rand crossed 15.00 levels which were seen only previously in extremis like when President Zuma conjured up Des Van Rooyen as his Finance Minister. Essentially the Rand was [Ace] Magashule-d. Magashule spooked the markets with his televised declaration that the ANC had decided to broaden the mandate of the Reserve Bank and told the government to implement quantitative easing. (He referred to it as "quality easing") Max du Preez wrote as follows in the online Afrikaans weekly Vrye Weekblad. ANC factions are waging war in public. The economy retracted sharply in the first quarter. Populists in the ruling party are flirting with radical economic concepts such as quantitative easing and are determined to undermine the status of the Reserve Bank. It seems there is an increase in violent crime and farm attacks. The rand is close to R15 for a dollar. Eskom, Transnet and SAA are close to collapse'' The ANC is in open rebellion except as Thabo learnt the President serves at the Pleasure of the ANC and not the other way round. I don't see how this gets finessed in fact the direction of travel is for the fissure to get wider, Add into the mix a very soft Q1 and a China South Africa Feedback Loop which is undergoing a Trend reversal and we have some ingredients in play and pointing to a further slide in the Rand. I would be selling rebounds and out of the money Call Options and buying Puts with the premium received. Zimbabwe has finally dialled up Madam Lagarde but here too Mnanagwa is not only in the habit of hitching rides on MBZ's I am sure well appointed planes but also leans to MBZ's vision of the Future. Lets turn our gaze to Zambia where President Lungu is seeking to ''nationalise'' Mr. Aggarwal's Copper Mines and the strategy seems to be to flip it and probably clip the transaction for some juicy brokerage. The Problem with this strategy is that the Price of Copper is down -11.4% since Mid-April and there is simply nothing left of FX reserves. Bond Yields are in default territory. This is a ''Hail Mary'' Pass I am afraid and Lungu's Cashew Nut moment. What happened to the cashew nut crop in Tanzania? What I missed entirely however was the big spike in [SnapChat +155% YTD] African rare Earth producers. Having spoken about it on my Show on Metropol TV at least two weeks ago when I said this might prove a ''Hallelujah'' moment a Geopolitical renaissance for President Pierre Nkurunziza because there are rare earths in Burundi. Reuters reported that The Pentagon has held talks with both companies following threats by Beijing to cut off supply to the country, Rainbow Rare Earths, which is developing a project in Burundi, said it could neither confirm nor deny the news. Mkango, which wants to build a mine and processing plant in Malawi, did not immediately respond to a request to comment. Rainbow Rare Earths last traded up 38 per cent at 7.69p, while Mkango was up 42 per cent at 10.375p. Rare earths are a group of 17 niche minerals that are used in electronics, electric cars, and some military equipment such as night vision goggles and lasers. Which is the quandary. It is better to act than to say. Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow
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The Hollow Men Mistah Kurtz-he dead A penny for the Old Guy Law & Politics |
Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear Here we go round the prickly pear At five o'clock in the morning.
Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom
Between the conception And the creation Between the emotion And the response Falls the Shadow Life is very long
Between the desire And the spasm Between the potency And the existence Between the essence And the descent Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom
For Thine is Life is For Thine is the
This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper.
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U.S. Bulks Up Coast Guard in Pacific to Counter China's Fleet @bpolitics Law & Politics |
The U.S. Coast Guard is touting increased operations in the Western Pacific, thousands of miles from American shores, as China’s coast guard and civilian fishing militias increasingly assert the country’s territorial claims.
A presence in the South China Sea and elsewhere will help enforce the sovereignty of partner nations in the disputed waters, U.S. Coast Guard Pacific Area Commander Vice Admiral Linda Fagan told a conference call. Coast Guard cutters USCGC Bertholf and USCGC Stratton are being deployed with the Seventh Fleet based in Yokosuka, Japan.
The ships will help “law enforcement and capacity-building in the fisheries enforcement realm,” Fagan said.
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The "Zeitgeist" of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. International Trade |
Capturing the ''zeitgeist'' of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment. Gladwell stated: "Ideas and products and messages and behaviors spread like viruses do". My Point is that the Millenials discovered the virtues of Avocado, the behaviour spread like a 'virus' and Boom prices sky-rocketed. The Avocado Price surge is an example of the new c21st Millennial Economy but there are many other examples.
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"If there is something of grand importance in Sudan right now it is how much foreign influence there is," said Magdi el-Gizouli, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute, a think-tank. Africa |
“Despite the bravery of the mass movement, there’s a lot of foreign meddling, regional factors that are decisive and might call the last shot.” Both sides are digging in, raising the prospect of more violence. Hemedti, arguably the most powerful man in Sudan, has little incentive to cede power. Thousands of his RSF were already in control of Khartoum even before the bloodshed. Armed with rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns mounted on trucks, the RSF is by far the most feared force in Sudan – menacing young men who mastered desert warfare in Darfur but lack the discipline of the regular army. The RSF grew out of the Arab Janjaweed militias accused of atrocities in Darfur. Bashir’s government denied that the militias had burned villages and raped and executed civilians. The TMC was quick to praise the RSF after the violence, saying it had a record of defending Sudan against terrorists. It said the force was targeting criminals and got out of hand. On Thursday night, mosque clerics in several parts of Khartoum – acting at about the same time - used microphones to urge people to take up arms against criminals. Men on motorcycles beeped their horns and delivered the same message on the outskirts of the capital.
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Rwanda re-opens border with Uganda to trucks for 12 days Reuters Africa |
In a statement, Rwanda’s revenue body said it was “pleased to inform the general public that heavy trucks are allowed to provisionally cross Gatuna border,” for 12 days starting Monday. At the end of February, Rwanda started blocking Ugandan cargo trucks from entering at the crossing, which Rwandans call Gatuna and Ugandans call Katuna. Authorities in Kigali also stopped Rwandan nationals from travelling to Uganda. Rwandan officials said they will decide after two weeks whether to reopen the border permanently. Rwandans were still banned from travelling to Uganda, minister of state for foreign affairs Olivier Nduhungirehe told Reuters. The blocking of cargo has disrupted commerce on a crucial regional transport artery. Rwanda depends for much of its imports on a trade route through Uganda to Kenya’s Indian Ocean seaport of Mombasa. The route is also used to transport goods from Kenya and Uganda to Burundi and parts of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
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China ready for trade talks with East Africa bloc -ambassador to Kenya Africa |
Chinese ambassador Wu Peng said Beijing was ready to open trade talks with Kenya via the EAC, which also includes Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan, guided by World Trade Organisation rules. “If we want a new, favourable trade agreement for Kenya, we must consider the whole area. But we are open to this task, this possibility, and we are ready to talk with the EAC together,” Wu said in an interview. China has become one of the biggest trading partners for many East African countries but their exports to the world’s second-biggest economy are dwarfed by imports of manufactured goods like electronics and plant equipment. Kenya imported goods worth 370.8 billion shillings ($3.67 billion) from China last year while exporting just 11.32 billion shillings of goods there. Nairobi wants to export more farm products, like avocados, to China. The two nations have completed a protocol opening up frozen avocado exports to China but exports of fresh avocados are still blocked due to bio-safety concerns. “I’m pushing it very hard and maybe it just needs scientific assistance to Kenyan farmers,” Wu said.
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Kenya Coal Plant's Power Could Cost 10 Times More Than Suggested, Group Says @economics Kenyan Economy |
Electricity from a planned coal-fired plant in Lamu, Kenya might cost 10 times as much as its developers suggest, according to an energy group that wants the project canceled. The plant, which will require an estimated $2 billion investment, is projected to be able to produce 1,050 megawatts of electricity. The project is 51% owned by Nairobi-based Centum Investment co., and is backed by General Electric Co.’s so-called Ultra-Supercritical Clean Coal Technology. Given the “realistic” costs of coal, electricity from the plant could sell for as much as U.S. cents 75 per kilowatt-hour on average, “more than 10 times what the plant’s proponents have claimed,” Cleveland-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said in a report. The power purchasing agreement would require payment of at least $360 million in annual capacity charges even when the plant doesn’t produce any power.
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.@KenyaAirways Proposes State-Run Structure as Airport Bid Fails @technology Kenyan Economy |
Kenya Airways Plc. is willing to operate under a state-owned holding company after the troubled airline failed in its bid to jointly run the country’s main airport, according to Chairman Michael Joseph. Lawmakers in the East African nation in May rejected the airline’s proposal to operate Jomo Kenyatta International Airport with the state-owned Kenya Airports Authority, and are expected to issue alternative proposals, Joseph said in an interview Monday. The recommendations could include the partial nationalization of Kenya Airways, he said. The airline, which reported a 5.95 billion shillings ($59 million) full-year loss, is proposing a model similar to Emirates Airline and Ethiopian Airlines Enterprise, which operate as units of state-owned holding companies. Such an arrangement would enable able it to double its fleet in five years, Joseph said. “We need the financial structure to enable us to do that,” he said. “It might not be cash, it might be the balance sheet which is why the airport deal was very important for us.” Kenya Airways, which is 48.9% owned by the government, is also on the hunt for a chief executive officer after Sebastian Mikosz said he would step down before the end of his three-year contract. “A mature, seasoned executive is what I will hire,” Joseph said. “There’s not many around. If it’s delayed beyond December there’ll be still strong leadership.” The airline’s stock fell 5.6% in Nairobi on Monday, bringing the loss this year to 60%.
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@serenahotels owner TPS gets waivers from lenders @dailynation Kenyan Economy |
Hospitality chain TPS Eastern Africa has received waivers from financiers that had lent it Sh2.5 billion after delays in refurbishing the company’s flagship Nairobi Serena Hotel affected its cash flow. The lenders — French sovereign wealth fund Proparco, Barclays Kenya and Barclays Tanzania — have agreed to allow the Nairobi Securities Exchange -listed firm to reschedule the loan repayments.
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