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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 02nd of July 2019

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Can the #G20 summit end trade wars and political infighting? #G20OsakaSummit @AJEnglish @AJInsideStory

Leaders of the world's wealthiest economies are in Japan to discuss
the biggest challenges to global free trade.
The group of 20 summit, or G20, has been held every year for the past
two decades.
This year's summit in Osaka is supposed to unite leaders around issues
such as free trade and climate change.
But political tensions and the trade war between the United States and
China are creating divisions.
Can the participants find consensus? And how relevant is this meeting
for the rest of the world?

Presenter: Divya Gopalan
Felicitas Weber - project lead at the Business and Human Rights
Resource Centre  @FelWeber
John Kirton - director of the G20 Research Group, an independent
network of global scholars providing analysis on the G20 @jjkirton
Aly-Khan Satchu - economist and CEO of Rich Management

Macro Thoughts

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As he crept through various dry, scaly hands reached out to touch him, one of them refusing to let go of his ankle until he stomped hard on its wrist Tears of the Trufflepig by Fernando A. Flores

A kilometer and a half away, a disheveled, barefoot man limped low to
the ground like a lame coyote through a shantytown, where completely
destitute people lived in small huts made of cardboard, scavenged
wood, car parts, and old furniture. As he crept through various dry,
scaly hands reached out to touch him, one of them refusing to let go
of his ankle until he stomped hard on its wrist. The barefoot man’s
bloodied clothes were in tatters, and the thinning hair from his
balding head was a mess. He moved like a spider with two missing legs,
and his mouth was sewn shut in the traditional headhunting manner,
with the huarango thorns stitched in the cicatrix pattern.
You get used to Bellacosa’s philosophical melancholy, until he’s in
real danger, and he’s able to accept the beauty of a world shot
through with violence and disaster:
He looked up at the gray sky as if it was a safe waiting to be
cracked, and the light snow over the frozen lake was like a Sunday
What beautiful battlefields we tread on, Bellacosa said to himself.

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He looked up at the gray sky as if it was a safe waiting to be cracked, and the light snow over the frozen lake was like a Sunday pastry. Fernando A. Flores

What beautiful battlefields we tread on, Bellacosa said to himself.

verses of popular corridos exalt El Gordo Pacheco, a kingpin who
kidnaps renowned scientists and forces them to engineer
chimeras—silver-coated “moonfoxes,” ivory-billed parakeets—for
black-market connoisseurs. @Harpers http://bit.ly/2YmN8Hb

Flores expertly lampoons the narcotraficante predilection for exotic
collecting and baroque violence. But his bigger target is authenticity
fetishism, the backward-looking, vinyl- loving, locavore culture that
distracts, like Nero’s fiddle, from natural and social disaster. Like
the contemporary craze for goji berries, ancient wheat, reduced
camel-hump fat, and other superfoods, filtering is one of many
diversions in a dying world where just about everybody’s head is sunk
deep in the sands of nostalgia.

The novel’s hard-boiled protagonist, Esteban Bellacosa, loses his
brother to the headshrinkers. He leads a lonely life in the fictional
border city of MacArthur, Texas, listening to Chopin, lighting
devotional candles for his deceased wife and daughter, and whiling
away the hours at sleepy taco shops with cute young waitresses.

The satire peaks when Paco and Esteban infiltrate an illegal banquet
of jet-setting epicures at a fortified pop-up restaurant. They’re on
the paleo diet—paleogenetic, that is—which includes such delicacies as
Galápagos tortoise gumbo, goose-butter beefsteak from medieval cattle,
and, for an amuse-bouche, “lightly fried gizzards of Mare aux Songes
dodo birds” (with aioli). It’s Jurassic Park meets Noma Tulum, the
Michelin-starred chef René Redzepi’s ephemeral outpost in the ancient
Mayan port recently recast as Mexico’s Williamsburg. Flores conjures a
Boschian feast worthy of the sixth extinction; the lotus-eating rich
blithely court annihilation in pursuit of unearthly delights.

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Hong Kong on Edge After Historic Night of Vandalism and Tear Gas @bpolitics
Law & Politics

Hong Kong began picking up after historic protests left the
legislature ransacked, the streets littered with spent tear gas
canisters and the city’s Beijing-backed leader promising to push back
against further unrest.
The defacement of the only democratically elected legislature under
Beijing control came on the anniversary of the former British colony’s
return to Chinese rule. After an annual flag-raising ceremony that
also marked the start of her third year in office, Lam promised to win
back the public’s trust by governing in a more inclusive way.

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Hong Kong is savouring a quite momentous Geopolitical Victory and seriously countertrend in point of fact.
Law & Politics

The Supreme and ‘’Paramount Leader’’ made his first [that I can
recall] volte-face. The Carrie Lam Administration has withdrawn the
Extradition Law indefinitely. Make no mistake the Decider in this
matter is Xi who has moved with despatch. Essentially, he understood
Hong Kong could not be ‘’Xinjiang-ed’’ Furthermore, being a
‘’Paramount Leader’’ is a double-edged sword.

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01-JUL-2019 :: #G20, Xi and @realDonaldTrump a visit to the DMZ and a limit Short in the Eurodollar market. @TheStarKenya
International Trade

These headline big ticket Events like the G20 which was held in Osaka
are I find simply unputdownable and a Hollywood Bollywood level
spectacle. The UK and South African Houses of Parliament are similarly
unputdownable. Returning to the G20, We had Trump and Xi going Toe to
Toe for the main course but this was preceded by Babette's Feast of
hors d'oeuvres. [South Koreans served 12 cold Korean starters on the
official menu -- among them steamed sea urchin with tofu and
mini-hamburgers. The main dish was a sirloin steak made of US beef,
accompanied by bulgogi sauce, pickled garlic leaves at a dinner for
President Trump ahead of his handshake visit to the DMZ, which I will
speak to momentarily]  Bolsanaro waited 25 minutes for Xi and then
cancelled which must be a first for the Supreme Leader. We had Daddy's
little Princess Ivanka doing her ''Disney'' thing. MBS, of course,
loomed over proceedings. Prime Minister Trudeau arrived well prepared
clutching a clunky briefcase, Tito Mboweni took Photos with Vladimir.
Theresa May did a Xi Jinping with Vladimir [Pulling a Face looking
away as if there is an assault happening on your olfactory senses at
the very moment the Photo is taken]. Trump has now found a way of
deflecting the prima facie charge of Russian interference in the 2016
Election and it is the equivalent of

''You Bad Bad Boy Vlad. Don't do it again, you hear.'' or words to that effect.

And I thought I noticed Vladimir was quite impressed with the role
play and the ''political'' subtlety around the Trump side step.

The Big Issues were Climate Change [Macron had made this his red
line], longevity and the Digital Economy but of course the Big Set
Piece Event was Saturdays Trump Xi Sit Down. President Xi Jinping
played his hand with extreme courtesy finesse and some old fashioned
etiquette seeking out Trump the day before at the Official Photo
session. This was a subtle triangulation move.

The Read Out was as follows.

President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, agree to
restart China-US #Trade consultations. @ChinaDaily
“We’re right back on track and we’ll see what happens,” U.S. President
Donald Trump told reporters Reuters
The 80-minute meeting with Xi was “excellent, as good as it was going
to be,” Trump added.
“Cooperation and dialogue are better than friction and confrontation,” Xi said.
Trump responded that a fair trade deal with China would be “historic”
and he hoped “We can go on to do something that truly will be
monumental and great for both countries.”
"Let's wait and Xi" said Citibank.
''A lot of people are drawing a lot of unwarranted conclusions about
the course of the US-China relationship based on a meeting, which
probably didn’t resolve very much, and a press conference with a guy
who is liable to say anything and completely reverse it a day later''
said @prchovanec

Marco Rubio tweeted ''If President Trump has agreed to reverse recent
sanctions against #Huawei he has made a catastrophic mistake'' which
speaks to my first overarching Point that being President Trump is not
the ''Decider'' in this matter. What we have witnessed is good Theatre
but entirely meaningless. I think both sides are making an economic
calculation. Trump wants to keep the US Economy ''blowing hot'' into
his reelection. And Xi understands that this negotiation is much more
than a ''Reality TV'' show 90 minute engagement and a Time-out will
give some respite from what is now becoming a sharp slow down with
asymmetric cliff edge downside risks . Therefore, this is a Christmas
truce (German: Weihnachtsfrieden; French: Trêve de Noël was a series
of widespread but unofficial ceasefires along the Western Front of
World War I around Christmas 1914]. However, this is 1914 and not

In the Spirit of ''Reality TV'' which of course sinks or swims on
ratings, President Trump detoured into the DMZ AND became the first
sitting US president to cross into North Korea after meeting Mr Kim at
the demilitarised zone. The Ratings were off the charts. Of course,
the Folks in Tehran must be calculating that they need to speed up
Iranium enrichment and get a proper deterrent and then they too will
be holding hands with President Trump. Trump will parlay these DMZ
Photo Ops into a major Foreign Policy success.

The markets flew higher in June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
posted its best June since 1938! Gold blew through $1,400.00 for the
first time since 2013. Bitcoin which dropped $2,000.00 in a blink of
an eye last week remains up around +200% in 2019. Interest Rates
nose-dived specifically in the US where the market has now priced in a
halving of the FED Fund rate from 2.50% to 1.25% over the next 12
months. You might not know this but I was a Short End Trader in my
previous Career in the City of London and I made my first
reputation-making Trade at Credit Suisse First Boston all those years
ago in the Eurodollar market. And if I were back at that Desk I would
be limit Short the Eurodollar [US interest rates] market as from

Reality will soon intrude on this Reality Show.

China | #Manufacturing PMI: The most important point is that the
employment component ⬇ deeper into contraction territory to 46.9
(lowest since Feb. 2009; v 47.0 prior) @C_Barraud


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Currency warrior: why @realDonaldTrump is weaponising the dollar @FT
International Trade

“He is using the importance and attractiveness of the US market to the
rest of the world as a coercive tool to get others to bend to his
will,” says Mr Smith. “Does the very aggressive use of these economic
tools make it more urgent for countries to find ways to avoid the US
market? Probably. However, the urgency may not mean that most
countries will be successful in finding effective workarounds.”
Data compiled by Gibson Dunn show 1,474 entities were subject to
sanctions designations in 2018 — 50 per cent higher than in any
previous year for which it has kept records.
“Anything Trump creates to foment uncertainty and instability will
only end up strengthening the dollar,” says Mr Prasad. Over time,
other countries will indeed get tired of this and shift away from the
dollar as a unit of account and a medium of exchange, he adds, but “in
the foreseeable and longer future the dollar’s role as the dominant
store of value is unlikely to be challenged.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1290
Dollar Index 96.773
Japan Yen 108.37
Swiss Franc 0.9868
Pound 1.2644
Aussie 0.6984 Reserve Bank Of Australia Cuts Its Cash Rate Target By
25bps To 1.0%, As Expected
India Rupee 68.975
South Korea Won 1167.44
Brazil Real 3.8413
Egypt Pound 16.71
South Africa Rand 14.1359

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2019 IPOs vs. offering price...@charliebilello
World Currencies

Beyond Meat $BYND: +510%
Zoom $ZM: +141%
PagerDuty $PD: +92%
Crowdstrike $CRWD: +86%
Tradeweb $TW: +63%
Chewy $CHWY: +53%
Slack $WORK: +41%
Pinterest $PINS: +40%
Levi Strauss $LEVI: +25%
Luckin Coffee $LK: +13%
Uber $UBER: -2%
Lyft $LYFT: -14%

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Crude Oil INO 59.30

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Angola Plans to Continue Wealth Fund After $2 Billion Withdrawal @business

Angola’s sovereign wealth fund may have to continue running with fewer
funds than its initial $5 billion capital after the southern African
nation withdrew $2 billion to invest in infrastructure projects,
President Joao Lourenco said.
“The majority of countries that have sovereign wealth funds started
with less funds than we did,” President Joao Lourenco said in an
interview with broadcaster Televisao Publica de Angola on June 28.
“We can very well have a fund with less than $5 billion in value.”
On June 27, the country said it would use $2 billion from the fund to
build or finish infrastructure projects including classrooms, medical
equipment and road improvements.
Taking $2 billion from the fund, known as Fundo Soberano de Angola,
“will not finish” it, Lourenco said.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.88% YTD

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.1301


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 16.7090


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +8.17% YTD


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.78% YTD


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -5.24% YTD


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A different set of newspaper headlines in Kenya following the passing of Safaricom CEO Bob Collymore. @bankelele
Kenyan Economy

Mr. Bob Collymore was a unique CEO and a Friend. He was very down to
earth and that was reflected in his range of Friends from Bill Gates
to Kenyan Musicians. In his Friendships he ranged far and wide. I
think a lot of empathy came from being brought up by a single Mother.
Bob presided over a 500% increase of Safaricom's share price over his
tenure and that spoke to his intelligence and subtlety as a CEO. Bob
was much more than that. I recall a time when Bob was asking Nishet
about the Koran and I discovered later that he had read every single
Religious Book from the Koran to the Upanishads. May God rest his Soul
in peace.

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Average daily traded turnover in the market declined from Sh780m in Q2 of 2018 to Sh539m in Q2 of this year.
Kenyan Economy

Foreigner investors accounted for 71% of turnover compared to 61.7% in
the second quarter of last year.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2019

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