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Macro Thoughts |
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"Don Quichotte," resolved to be his "beloved" 's knight-errant, to pursue her zealously right through the TV screen into whatever exalted high-definition reality she & her kind inhabited, and, by deeds as well as by grace, to win h Africa |
“So, so many wings they have,” she said. “Metropolitan Museum wing named after them, Louvre wing also, London Royal Academy wing also. A bird with so, so many wings can fly so, so high.” “But we are not birds. We have no need of wings.” “At the Tate Modern, they have a staircase with their name. At the Jewish Museum in Berlin, they have an escalator. They have a rose also, pink, bearing their name. They have an asteroid in the sky. So, so many things they have.” “Why must I care about asteroids and escalators?” She knew what to say. “Branding,” she cried. “You buy naming rights, your name becomes loved. It will be so, so loved. And love is good for business, no? So, so good.” He loved his wife. “O.K.,” he said. “Smile wing, Smile extension, Smile gallery, Smile balcony, Smile ward, Smile elevator, Smile toilet, Smile star in the sky.” She broke into song. “When you’re smiling,” she sang. It was their song. “When you’re smiling.” “The whole world smiles with you,” he said.
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China deploys J-20 stealth fighter 'to keep tabs on Taiwan' @SCMPNews Law & Politics |
The People’s Liberation Army Air Force posted a photo on its social media account this week showing the fifth-generation fighter tagged with the number 62001, designating the aircraft as part of a frontline unit. Chinese media reported that the stealth fighter had entered the Eastern Theatre Command, which encompasses Taiwan. Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the aircraft appeared to have two missions. “The unit turning operational in Eastern Theatre Command is precisely aimed at Taiwan,” Koh said. “And to challenge US military activities in Taiwan Strait, besides posing a threat to the median line that Taiwan’s air force patrols along.”
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@BorisJohnson vows no‑deal Brexit 'by any means necessary' War cabinet of six to deliver Johnson's mission @thesundaytimes Law & Politics |
Boris Johnson has set up a “war cabinet” to deliver Brexit “by any means necessary” by October 31 as a senior cabinet minister warned that there was “now a very real prospect” of no deal. In a dramatic shift Michael Gove, the minister responsible for no-deal preparations, said the government was “working on the assumption” that Brussels would not strike a fresh agreement. In a Whitehall revolution, Johnson will make every decision on Brexit policy with a team of just six senior ministers — all of them Brexiteers who support no deal. Starting tomorrow, the war cabinet — Gove; the chancellor, Sajid Javid; the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab; the Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay; and Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general — will plot the nation’s course. Putting the country on a war footing, Johnson has ordered Gove to chair meetings of civil servants and political advisers every day — including Sundays — until the 2016 referendum result is delivered.
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Emerging Markets |
North Korea’s economy shrank in 2018 for a second straight year, and by the most in 21 years, hit by international sanctions to stop its nuclear programme and by severe drought, South Korea’s central bank said on Friday (Jul 26). North Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 4.1 per cent last year in real terms, the worst since 1997 and the second consecutive year of decline after a 3.5 per cent fall in 2017, the South’s Bank of Korea estimated. North Korea does not disclose any statistics on its economy. The South Korean central bank has been publishing its estimates since 1991, based on information from various sources including the South’s foreign trading agencies. North Korea’s international trade fell 48.4 per cent in value in 2018 as tougher international sanctions in late 2016 and 2017 cut exports by nearly 90 per cent, the Bank of Korea said. Output in the mining sector shrank 17.8 per cent because of sanctions on exports of coal and minerals, while the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector contracted by 1.8 per cent because of drought, it said. North Korea’s population was estimated at 25.13 million and annual income per head at S$1,298, the South Korean central bank said.
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30-APR-2018 :: "A new history starts now. An age of peace, from the starting point of history." Emerging Markets |
The Events that took place on Friday at the truce village of Panmunjom and during the Inter-Korean Summit were breathtaking for the Hollywood Optics. The Opening Shot of Kim Jong Un surrounded by a Phalanx of North Korean Officials [later replayed as Chairman Kim sat in his Presidential Vehicle surrounded by his Ninja bodyguards] was almost as good as the opening Sequence in PT Anderson's Boogie Nights [Steadicam operator Andy Shuttleworth]. This was Cinema of the highest level which is no surprise when You consider that Kim Jong-Il the Father was obsessed with Cinema and amassed arguably the world’s largest personal film collection: over 20,000 bootlegged 35mm screening copies. Kim Jong-Il also had a penchant for Hennessy Paradis cognac and for two years in the mid-1990s, he was the world's largest buyer of Hennessy Paradis cognac, importing up to $800,000 of the stuff a year. Kim Jong-Il began his career as the head of the state’s propaganda and agitation department and its clear that Kim Jong-Un's sister Kim Yo Jong who holds the same role and evidently handles all the optics, is a chip off the old Block. Friday was tip-top Geopolitical Optics. Mike Pompeo, the newly minted US Secretary of State [His predecessor was fired via Twitter] had visited Pyongyang the previous week and pronounced; that the young North Korean leader was "a smart guy who's doing his homework"
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29-JUL-2019 :: Africa. @TheStarKenya Africa |
The IMF released their iconic World Economic Outlook last week and said the following about Sub Saharan Africa
In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected at 3.4 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.1 percentage point lower for both years than in the April WEO, as strong growth in many non-resource-intensive countries partially offsets the lackluster performance of the region’s largest economies. Higher, albeit volatile, oil prices have supported the outlook for Angola, Nigeria, and other oil-exporting countries in the region. But growth in South Africa is expected at a more subdued pace in 2019 than projected in the April WEO following a very weak first quarter, reflecting a larger-than-anticipated impact of strike activity and energy supply issues in mining and weak agricultural production. So after downshifting SSA growth 0.1% for 2019 and 2020 they have pegged Nigeria at 2.3% and 2.6% and South Africa at + 0.71% and +1.1%. Nigeria and South Africa constitute 50% of SSA GDP. I think Nigeria will post lower numbers than projected by the IMF and worthy of note is that Both Economies are in fact in reverse because of Population growth which is exceeding GDP.
This single Paragraph does not tell the Story because this year in 2019 so much has gone on. Let start with the Geopolitical and Political dimension. There has been a significant advance and intrusion by Middle Powers [KSA, UAE, Egypt was always there] into the Horn of Africa. The ''Oudh'' Spring in Khartoum met a ''red in tooth and claw'' Counter-Revolution and Sudan feels like an African Fault-line. Its somewhat counterintuitive but it is the Al-Sisi Model which is delivering economic growth of 6% but I for one think its impossible to replicate because the cry for Political Freedom is relentless and at fever pitch. Sudan is surely a collision which is set to repeated elsewhere in what could morph into a Gladwell level move not unlike Ebola which is exponential at its heart.
America feels detached, China certainly more cautious around its BRI Loan Book. Russia has reasserted itself with its unique bag of Tricks [Elections,, Weapons and Cash particularly where there are resources available for swapping]. The United Kingdom will surely seek a bigger engagement post Brexit and France and the Future of the French speaking World is also in Africa. Quite a sophistical Policy Tool-Kit is required.India is a Player too.
At a more granular level, Zimbabwe is a Laboratory Experiment with Inflation last clocking 176%. There is a straw and camels back moment but predicting that moment is always a Fools Errand. Centrifugal forces are working against the mercurial Prime Minister Abiy's agenda in Ethiopia. The French speaking countries like Cote D'Ivoire and Senegal are in a sweet spot in large part precisely because of the stability of the Euro Anchor and at which very moment they are considering dumping the connection and launching their own ECO. President Tshishikedi in the DR Congo continues to build momentum from a low base. East Africa's Infrastructure model [predominantly rail] is finding that the Main Creditor is not being persuaded to pony up more cash. The actual Signal was emitted at FOCAC 2018 but Policy Makers' Antennae were scrambled then and the message did not get through. The Message got through at the third time of asking, in fact. The Proof of Magafulinomics will be in the eating and surely we will know whether the cake it is baking is a growing one or a shrinking one.
The overarching and interestingly at a time when the Rest of the World seems to be embarked on a process of Fragmentation and Globalisation coming apart at the seams, Africa is proudly moving counter-trend with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA). Of course, the Devil is in the Details of the execution and such things can simply fall apart in a deluge of Non-Tariff Barriers but it is a Silver Bullet particularly if we allow the free circulation of our People who are natural Entrepreneurs. Just look outside, there are markets just about everywhere.
From an economic Perspective, balance sheets are fully loaded and the exposure to Foreign markets quite high [The SSA Eurobond market is in excess of $104b, for example]. Just on Friday Fitch Ratings revised its Outlook on South Africa to Negative; Affirms at 'BB+'. This is surely a Precursor for what has to be a deteriorating Ratings trend line. For now, with the Developed World embarked on their own version of ''Voodoo economics'' with interest rates deep in negative territory, this has created a benign backdrop for SSA Sovereign Paper because of the Optics of handsomely positive interest rates in a world of negative interest rates. However, the Ratings Trendline versus Yield compression means at some point the elastic band will snap. Zambia of course snapped earlier in the year.
The best performing stock market has been South Africa where the Gold Price move higher popped Gold and Miners shares.
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Africa |
While Cape Town is South Africa’s top tourist attraction, few of its 1.7 million annual foreign visitors venture beyond the iconic areas around Table Mountain to the Cape Flats, a mishmash of sandy, windswept neighborhoods filled with low-rise apartment blocks and shacks designed by the apartheid regime to keep the city’s black and mixed-race residents out of view. Police estimated in 2013 that there are 100,000 gang members in the city of 4 million people. Just 12 miles from Cape Town’s beaches, five-star hotels, and internationally lauded restaurants, gangs fight for turf in the area’s rapidly expanding drug trade. The conflict has led to 900 murders in 2019, more than the annual total for 2018, in a country that already has one of the world’s highest murder rates. Ramaphosa was quick to emphasize that the deployment—which took place on July 18—was a “defense force of democratic South Africa.” But for many South Africans, the presence of troops in the Cape Flats evoked memories of the last years of apartheid, when townships were patrolled by government forces and protests were put down with a heavy hand. Since 1994, the army has only been deployed twice in major cities—Johannesburg, Durban, and Cape Town—to end bouts of xenophobic violence. A study conducted by the government of Western Cape province in 2017 and 2018 found that 95% of people in the Cape Flats felt unsafe on the street at night. Daylight wasn’t safe, either: Children out playing have been the victims of stray bullets from shootouts. Cape Town is a conduit city for heroin trafficking—the country is one of three major routes for the drug out of Afghanistan. The trade in South Africa is worth at least $260 million, according to a conservative estimate by Simone Haysom, a senior analyst at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. Cape Town is the epicenter of gang activity, which also feeds off protection rackets and trade in other drugs including crystal meth. “I am a thug. What I do, selling drugs and other illegal things, is not good, but what am I supposed to do?” says Pretty Boy, a 46-year-old gangster in the Bonteheuwel neighborhood. He wore sweatpants and a beanie with a pompom as he stood in the street surrounded by younger gang members. “We read in the newspapers that government is spending 23 million rand ($1.7 million) for the army to come here. Why don’t they use that money to improve people’s lives instead?”
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.@FitchRatings Revises Outlook on South Africa to Negative; Affirms at 'BB+' Africa |
The Outlook revision reflects a marked widening in the budget deficit as a result of lower GDP growth and increased spending, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) support, increasing our projections for government debt/GDP and heightening the difficulty of stabilising debt/GDP over the medium term. Renewed downward revisions to GDP growth in 2019 also raise new questions about South Africa's GDP growth potential. The social context of exceptionally high inequality will constrain the government's policy response to these challenges.Fiscal metrics have deteriorated significantly due to under-performance of revenue, which is expected to worsen in the current fiscal year as growth has turned out to be weaker than expected. Low trend GDP growth means that economic recovery is not expected to drive a major fiscal improvement in later years, while we also forecast expenditure to increase by approximately 2pp of GDP in FY19/20-FY21/22. Fitch forecasts GG debt to increase further to 68% of GDP in FY21/22, and debt may continue rising after that. GG debt was 57.3% in FY18/19 (including central government gross loan debt of 55.6% of GDP and 1.6% of GDP of local government debt), compared with a current 'BB' category median of 44.6%. The debt structure helps to reduce refinancing and foreign-exchange risks, with a particularly long average maturity of central government debt of 13.2 years and foreign-currency debt accounting for just 8.2% of GG debt.
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Tanzania's economic growth slowed to 6.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019 from 7.5% in the same period a year earlier Reuters Africa Africa |
A leaked report from the International Monetary Fund said earlier this year that Tanzania’s economy has not been expanding as fast as official figures suggest. It said lower growth was partly due to President John Magufuli’s “unpredictable and interventionist” policies. In the first quarter, construction, the biggest driver of GDP, grew 13.2%, compared with 15.6% a year ago, the state-run National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, growth in the mining sector, which has been the target of repeated government interventions, rebounded to 10.0% from a 5.7% decline during the same period in 2018. Tanzania is Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer. “The growth (of the mining sector) was mainly due to an increase in production of gold, coal and diamonds,” said NBS.
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CIC Insurance Co reports HY eps -95.238% Earnings Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: Closing Price: 3.56 Total Shares Issued: 2615538528.00 Market Capitalization: 9,311,317,160 EPS: 0.24 PE: 14.833
CIC Insurance Group Limited HY 2019 Results through 30th June 2019 vs. 30th June 2019 HY Gross written premiums 9.594819b vs. 8.980946b +6.835% HY Net earned premiums 7.111682b vs. 7.082902b +0.406% HY Investment and other income 1.623551b vs. 1.640640b -1.042% HY Total income 8.735233b vs. 8.723542b +0.134% HY Claims and policyholders’ benefits expense [5.040992b] vs. [4.669916b] +7.946% HY Operating and other expenses [3.214160b] vs. [3.075124b] +4.521% HY Total expenses [8.255152b] vs. [7.745040b] +6.586% HY PBT 146.839m vs. 643.694m -77.188% HY Tax charge [125.939m] vs. [106.639m] +18.098% HY Profit for the period 20.900m vs. 537.055m -96.108% EPS 0.01 vs. 0.21 -95.238% These unaudited condensed financial statements are extracts from the books of accounts of the group. They were approved by the board of directors on 26th July 2019. FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • Gross written premiums increased by 7% from KShs.9B in 2018 to KShs.9.5B in 2019. Regional countries contributed Kshs.1B • Claims incurred increased from Kshs.4.7B to Kshs.5B driven mainly by adverse group life claims in Q1 that are not expected to recur. Subdued investment environment and yield curve deterioration has also resulted in high actuarial reserves. • Operating expenses remain under control and only rose by 5% to Kshs.3.2B. • Profit before tax declined from Kshs.644M to Kshs.147M mainly because of the loss in our life business occasioned by the adverse group life claims that are not expected to repeat. General business and CIC Asset Management had a profit before tax of Kshs.326M and Kshs.104M respectively, while the regional countries contributed a profit before tax of Kshs.50M. • Total assets increased by 9% to KShs.36B • We project a significantly improved performance for our life business in the second half of the year.
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.90 Kenyan Economy |
Kenya Shilling depreciated by 0.7% against the US Dollar to close at Kshs 103.8, from Kshs 103.1 the previous week, with the shilling hitting a 3 year low of Kshs 104.0, partly driven by uncertainty caused by Monday's announcement that the Treasury Cabinet Secretary would be charged with financial misconduct, coupled with a relatively liquid money market. The Kenya Shilling has depreciated by 1.9% year to date, in comparison to the 1.3% appreciation in 2018
Improving diaspora remittances, which have increased cumulatively by 13.6% in the 12 months to June 2019 to USD 2.8 bn, from USD 2.4 bn recorded in a similar period of review in 2018.
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