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Wednesday 28th of August 2019 |
1. So here's where we are: @MatthewdAncona Africa |
1. So here’s where we are: Johnson’s authority is made of balsa. He depends upon the taxpayer-purchased votes of the DUP and the support of his own parliamentary party, many of whom want much more than the backstop excised from May’s deal.... 2. He is only in office at all because of the decision taken by the tiny selectorate of Tory members. His mandate is constitutionally sound but politically frangible. BUT...
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The @federalreserve Shouldn't Enable @realDonaldTrump @economics Africa |
U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the confidence of businesses and consumers, worsening the economic outlook. This manufactured disaster-in-the-making presents the Federal Reserve with a dilemma: Should it mitigate the damage by providing offsetting stimulus, or refuse to play along? If the ultimate goal is a healthy economy, the Fed should seriously consider the latter approach. The Fed’s monetary policy makers typically take what happens outside their realm as a given, and then make the adjustments needed to pursue their goals of stable prices and maximum employment. They place little weight on how their actions will affect decisions in other areas, such as government spending or trade policy. The Fed, for example, wouldn’t hold back on interest-rate cuts to compel Congress to provide fiscal stimulus instead. Staying above the political fray helps the central bank maintain its independence. So, according to conventional wisdom, if Trump’s trade war with China hurts the U.S. economic outlook, the Fed should respond by adjusting monetary policy accordingly — in this case by cutting interest rates. But what if the Fed’s accommodation encourages the president to escalate the trade war further, increasing the risk of a recession? The central bank’s efforts to cushion the blow might not be merely ineffectual. They might actually make things worse. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has hinted that he is aware of the problem. At the central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole last week, he noted that monetary policy cannot “provide a settled rulebook for international trade.” I see this as a veiled reference to the trade war, and a warning that the Fed’s tools are not well suited to mitigate the damage. Yet the Fed could go much further. Officials could state explicitly that the central bank won’t bail out an administration that keeps making bad choices on trade policy, making it abundantly clear that Trump will own the consequences of his actions. Such a harder line could benefit the Fed and the economy in three ways. First, it would discourage further escalation of the trade war, by increasing the costs to the Trump administration. Second, it would reassert the Fed’s independence by distancing it from the administration’s policies. Third, it would conserve much-needed ammunition, allowing the Fed to avoid further interest-rate cuts at a time when rates are already very low by historical standards. I understand and support Fed officials’ desire to remain apolitical. But Trump’s ongoing attacks on Powell and on the institution have made that untenable. Central bank officials face a choice: enable the Trump administration to continue down a disastrous path of trade war escalation, or send a clear signal that if the administration does so, the president, not the Fed, will bear the risks — including the risk of losing the next election. There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview. After all, Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy, to the Fed’s independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives. If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.
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The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in Africa |
The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”. He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at Colorado Command: “We have a deviate, Tomahawk.” “We copy. There’s a voice.” “We have gross oscillation here.” “There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s helping.” “We are clearing an outframe to locate source.” “Thank you, Colorado.” “It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the step-function quad.” “It was a voice,” I told them. “We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.” The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”. “Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60 years ago.”
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"Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield" Africa |
“Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft, and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is another paradox: What is soft is strong,” Lao Tzu
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"Ours is the most cryptic of Centuries, it's true Nature a Dark Secret" P 206 Imaginary Homelands @SalmanRushdie Africa |
“Meaning is a shaky edifice we build out of scraps, dogmas, childhood injuries, newspaper articles, chance remarks, old fillms, small victories, people hated, people loved; perhaps it is because our sense of what is the case is constructed from such inadequate materials that we defend it so fiercely, even to death.” ― Salman Rushdie, Imaginary Homelands: Essays and Criticism 1981-1991
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ISRAEL APPEARS TO ATTACK FOUR COUNTRIES IN TWO DAYS, BOMBING IRAN'S ALLIES ACROSS MIDDLE EAST @Newsweek Law & Politics |
Israel has reportedly struck targets in four different countries within the span of two days as it broadened the scope of its extraterritorial activities against allies of Iran. Israeli forces openly claimed attacks over the weekend in Syria and the Palestinian-administered Gaza Strip and were blamed for two more operations in Lebanon and Iraq. As reports of what occurred across the region emerged, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at his country's ongoing efforts abroad, telling a Monday planning meeting that "we will deepen our roots and strike at our enemies." Israel has often accused Iran of attempting to set up forward bases across the Middle East, where most Arab nations have not formally recognized Israel due to its decades-long territorial dispute with Palestinians and other clashing interests. Israel has traditionally maintained silence over its international operations, but has increasingly opened up about some of its efforts, especially in Syria, where Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday he supported "Israel's right to defend itself from threats posed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps & to take action to prevent imminent attacks against Israeli assets." The top U.S. diplomat said Netanyahu stated "Israel would strike IRGC targets threatening Israel, wherever they are located." The tweet came a day after Israel's first foreign operation Saturday in the southwestern Syrian village of Aqraba, preventing what Israel's military claimed the following day to be "a pending, large-scale attack of multiple killer drones on Israel." The targets were said to be members of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force and members of Lebanon's allied Shiite Muslim Hezbollah movement. The Syrian Ministry of Defense reported Saturday "an Israeli aggression" coming from the occupied Golan Heights, claiming much of the incoming missiles had been intercepted. Israel's military said Sunday it killed two "Lebanese Shiite militia" operatives, naming them and posting pictures of an alleged trip to Iran, where they were said to have received "drone-operation training." Also on Sunday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah announced two explosive-laden Israeli drones had fallen over southern Beirut as they attempted to conduct a "suicide mission" in a part of the city his group enjoys support. Meanwhile, in northern Israel, Netanyahu argued it was Iran and Hezbollah that had tried to employ such deadly unmanned weapons, justifying his Syria attack by saying that "if someone rises up to kill you, kill him first." Hours later, Lebanon's National News Agency reported that Israeli jets struck positions of the nationalist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command in eastern Qusaya. The group, which also has ties to Iran, reportedly responded with anti-aircraft fire in what would be one of the most serious engagements involving the two countries since Hezbollah and Israel fought in 2006. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri received a call that same day from Pompeo, who "stressed the need to avoid any escalation and to work with all parties concerned to prevent any further deterioration" as Hariri "emphasized Lebanon's commitment to the obligations of international resolutions" and noted "the dangers of continuing Israeli violations" of these resolutions. Lebanese President Michel Aoun met Monday with the U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis, calling Israel's moves in Beirut and Qusaya "a declaration of war." The statement echoed the words of Iraq's powerful Fateh Alliance, which called separate strikes that killed a militia commander in the border town of Al-Qaim "a declaration of war on Iraq and its people," according to the Associated Press. The statement attributed the strike to Israel and is believed to be the latest in a series of such attacks targeting sites associated with the Popular Mobilization Forces, a mostly Shiite Muslim collective of militias that are integrated with the Iraqi armed forces but host ties to Iran as well. Speaking Monday to a media outlet affiliated with the paramilitary forces, Iraqi Defense Ministry spokesperson Tahseen al-Khafaji warned Monday that "we will not allow security forces or the Popular Mobilization Forces to be subjected to any aggression," but noted that "investigations are still underway." Violence also erupted closer to Israel's own disputed borders as unidentified groups fired three rockets into Israel from Gaza, two of which were reportedly intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system. Israel retaliated by launching airstrikes on positions on Hamas, the Palestinian Sunni Islamist group in charge of the territory. As regional tensions flared, Israeli Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Major General Kamil Abu-Rukun issued a warning to Palestinian groups on his Facebook page, warning that "hostile elements near and far, attempting to ignite a war, are dragging you into violence and destroying the stability and security of your home," as quoted by the Jerusalem Post. He claimed that Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad "is in the service of Iran, is causing destabilization again and again and harming the security of the area." He added: "You are the ones who will suffer the consequences." While Israel and Iran have long been at odds, their feud has worsened since the U.S.' decision last year to leave a 2015 nuclear deal and impose a self-styled "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The U.S. has struggled to establish a multinational maritime security group and though Israel has expressed interest, only the United Kingdom, Bahrain and Australia have officially signed on to coalition.
Conclusions
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Americans' View of the Current Economy Is the Highest in 19 Years @markets World Currencies |
U.S. consumer confidence declined in August by less than forecast as Americans’ assessment of current conditions climbed to the highest level in almost 19 years, helped by a job market that remains robust. The Conference Board’s index eased to 135.1 this month from a revised 135.8, according to data from the New York-based group Tuesday that exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The gauge of views on the present situation jumped to 177.2, the highest since November 2000, the expectations index decreased. “While other parts of the economy may show some weakening, consumers have remained confident and willing to spend,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “However, if the recent escalation in trade and tariff tensions persists, it could potentially dampen consumers’ optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook.”
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Rupee Loses Mojo in Another Ugly August for India's Currency @markets Emerging Markets |
The rupee is set for its worst monthly loss in six years and some analysts warn of more pain to come. JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects it to approach the record low hit last October by year-end, while Nomura forecasts the currency to finish 2019 at 72.5 per dollar. Demand for everything from cars to cookies has waned as India’s lingering shadow-banking crisis weighs on private consumption, which accounts for almost 60% of the gross domestic product. And the increasingly bitter trade war has complicated the government’s task of re-igniting Asia’s third-largest economy. Not surprisingly, data due Friday will likely to show that gross domestic product slowed in the June quarter, to 5.7%. Rupee’s fortunes are also getting linked to the moves in the yuan, according to JPMorgan, which has moved away from its call of rupee outperformance against the more-trade oriented currencies like the Korean won. “If the CNY continues to depreciate against the USD, as we expect, we believe the rupee will depreciate virtually lockstep with the CNY,” analysts including Sajid Chinoy and Jonathan Cavenagh wrote in a recent note.
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Zambia Ratings Lowered To 'CCC+/C' On Low Foreign Reserves And High Debt Service Obligations; Outlook Stable S&P Global Ratings Africa |
Overview
Zambia's foreign currency reserves are low and its external debt-service obligations are rising. In the absence of effective policy to at least stabilize external buffers at the central bank, Zambia's relative creditworthiness is declining. We are therefore lowering our ratings on Zambia to 'CCC+/C' from 'B-/B'. The stable outlook reflects our view that the Zambian government can meet its commercial debt obligations over the next 12 months. Rating Action On Aug. 23, 2019, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Zambia to 'CCC+/C' from 'B-/B'. The outlook on the long-term rating is stable. We have also revised our transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment on Zambia to 'CCC+' from 'B-'. Outlook The outlook is stable because we expect the government to meet its commercial debt obligations over the next 12 months.
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Nigeria Fears Fiscal Crisis as Debts Take Big Pie of Revenues BBG Africa |
Fiscal revenues in Africa’s most-populous nation undershot targets by at least 45% a year since 2015, according to the budget office. Expenditure has doubled to more than 7 trillion naira ($19 billion). The government’s income shortfall was 51.9% in May due to lower oil and non-oil inflows, according to the central bank. Spending has been largely supported by borrowing both from the domestic and international markets. Total debt was at $81.2 billion at the end of March, from about $65 billion in 2015. Debt owed to non-Nigerian lenders was $25.2 billion. Total borrowing as a proportion of gross domestic product is about 21%, compared with almost 60% for South Africa, which vies with Nigeria as the continent’s biggest economy. Debt service costs consume more than half of actual revenues, leaving little to build badly needed infrastructure and grow the economy. Nigeria spent 2.2 trillion naira on servicing outstanding loans in 2018 compared to 1.68 trillion naira on infrastructure, according to the central bank. Without major revenue reforms, debt could rise to almost 36% of GDP by 2024 and interest payments could make up 74.6% of revenue, according to the International Monetary Fund. At about 7% of GDP, Nigeria has one of the lowest tax collection ratios in the world. Efforts to boost tax revenues in recent years has not yielded the desired results. An oil price crash, a 2016 contraction and subsequent slow economic growth has reduced tax earnings, Babatunde Fowler, chief executive of the country’s revenue agency, said in answer to a query from the Presidency. The country’s low tax revenues hampers its ability to invest in infrastructure, social welfare and human capital development, all necessary for robust growth, Amaka Anku, Eurasia Group’s Africa head, said by email. “Nigeria’s government expenditure is roughly the same as Kenya’s, despite a population that is nearly three times as big,” she said. The most viable option is for the government to increase taxes, Oluwasegun Akinwale, a banking analyst at Lagos-based Asset & Resource Management, said by phone. “If they can do that in the next few months, that can add some income,” he said. “They also have to diversify the revenue base from oil and add manufacturing. There are no short-term solutions.”
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@KenyaAirways reports H1 2019 Earnings here Africa |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 2.65 Total Shares Issued: 5681616931.00 Market Capitalization: 15,056,284,867 EPS: -1.01 PE: -2.624
Kenya Airways PLC H1 2019 results through 30th June 2019 vs. 30th June 2018 H1 Total income 58.550b vs. 52.193b +12.180% H1 Total operating costs [61.454b] vs. [53.218b] -15.476% H1 Operating Loss [2.904b] vs. [1.025b] -183.317% H1 Other costs [5.684b] vs. [2.990b] -90.100% H1 Loss before income tax [8.562b] vs. [3.992b] -114.479% H1 Income tax [expenses]/ credit [1m] vs. [43m] -97.674% H1 Loss for the period [8.563b] vs. [4.035b] -112.218% Basic loss per share [1.47] vs. [0.69] -113.043% Diluted loss per share [1.14] vs. [0.54] -111.111% Total Equity [16.184b] Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 4.229b vs. 5.964b -29.091% COMMENTARY On behalf of the board of Directors, I hereby present the Kenya Airways PLC financial results for the six months period ended 30 June 2019. I would like to point out that in turning around Kenya Airways, a deliberate decision was taken not to shrink the business but instead improve financial performance through strategic investments on growth opportunities. Some of these investments may deny KQ and its shareholders an immediate return but are expected to yield positive results in the future. In cognisance of these long-term investments, the Group has recorded a loss before tax of Kshs 8,562 million compared to Kshs 3,992 million reported in the same period in 2018. Some of these losses can be attributed to the return in to KQ service of two Boeing 787's that were on sub-lease to Oman Air, investment in new routes and adoption of the new International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS 16). IFRS 16 which came into effect in January 2019, replacing IAS 17, recognises operating leases as assets in financial statements and enables comparability between companies that lease assets and those that outrightly purchase assets. Revenues The Group's total revenues increased by 12% to Kshs. 58,550 million. The growth was due to improved passenger, cargo and other revenue streams that were mainly driven by the positive performance of recently introduced routes These results include revenues from routes such as New York, Libreville, Mogadishu which were opened in the second half on 2018. As a result, the Airline recorded a 6.6% increase in passenger numbers to hit 2.4 million. Passenger revenue grew 5.8% to Kshs. 42,597 million. Despite the increase in revenues, we continue to register lower yields attributed increased competitive environment, major currency fluctuations as well as a tough local macro-economic environment. Costs: The Group saw a 15.9 % rise in operating costs. The increase was mainly attributed to the return of two Boeing 787s that had been sub-leased to Oman Air and fuel costs which marginally increased by 5% due to increased flying. The airline, however benefitted from its fuel hedging program. Based on the above revenue and cost dynamics, the Group recorded an Operating loss Margin of 5.6%. Other operating highlights: During the first half, KQ continued its network expansion drive, opening the key strategic routes - Rome, Geneva and Malindi and increasing frequencies to other key destinations. The New York City Route which was launched in October 2013 has shown a positive passenger uptake. The growth in passenger numbers is highly attributed to codeshare agreements that enable passengers to connect to other destinations in the US. Outlook The global economic and geopolitical context remains uncertain, while Kenya Airways continues to operate in a highly competitive environment. The Group continues to invest in improvement of operations, efficient network growth and improvement of service quality and delivery. In the next half year, the Board and Management are working on a fleet refinancing program, which once completed will improve the Group's cashflow. The impact of this program on the Group's financials will be announced to the public once the program is approved for implementation. On behalf of the Board of Directors, I take this opportunity to express my sincere appreciation to our customers, the Government of Kenya, shareholders, management, staff, suppliers and other stakeholders for their continued support. Michael Joseph Chairman
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@NSE_PLC reports H1 2019 EPS -82.692% Earnings here Africa |
Par Value: Closing Price: 11.10 Total Shares Issued: 259503194.00 Market Capitalization: 2,880,485,453 EPS: 0.83 PE: 13.373 Nairobi Securities Exchange PLC H1 2019 results through 30th June 2019 vs. 30th June 2018 H1 Operating income 288.731m vs. 352.402m -18.068% H1 Interest income 47.227m vs. 58.879m -19.790% H1 Total income 364.336m vs. 430.504m -15.370% H1 Administrative expenses [339.404m] vs. [277.332m] -22.382% H1 Profit before taxation 29.895m vs. 167.826m -82.187% H1 Profit for the year 24.268m vs. 133.886m -81.874% Basic and diluted EPS 0.09 vs. 0.52 -82.692% Total assets 2.287448b vs. 2.309172b -0.941% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period 234.197mvs.122.341m +91.430% No dividend OPERATING ENVIRONMENT – FIRST HALF OF 2019 Global economic growth remained subdued in the first half of 2019 on account of strained US-China trade relations coupled with prolonged Brexit uncertainty, that significantly impacted on investor sentiments, slowing down investment. In the course of the 6-month period, the World Bank revised downwards its 2019 economic growth forecast by 0.3% points to 2.6%, from the projected 2.9% as at January 2019. The macro-economic environment in Kenya during the first half of 2019 continued to face challenges characterized by erratic weather conditions, low private sector credit growth, reduced liquidity and increased inflation. During the period under review, the inflation rate increased to an average of 5.2% compared to an average of 4.3% posted over the same period in 2018. The country however experienced a relatively stable interest rate and currency environment evidenced by a marginal depreciation of 0.5% against the US Dollar and declining yields in government securities in the primary market in the period under review respectively. FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS The Group reported a decline in profit after tax of 82% to Kshs. 24 Million for the six months period ended June 2019 as compared to Kshs. 134 Million recorded over the same period in 2018. This was occasioned by an 18% decrease in revenues mainly driven by a 28% drop in equity turnover which declined from Kshs. 108.5 Billion for the six months ended 30 June 2018 to Kshs. 78.1 Billion for the six months ended 30 June 2019. This in turn led to a reduction in equity trading levies by 28% from Kshs. 259.9 Million for the six months ended 30 June 2018 to Kshs. 187.5 Million for the six months ended 30 June 2019. The decline in the equity turnover was as a result of low domestic demand which saw an increase in asset allocation towards the fixed income assets. Bonds turnover however edged up 16% to settle at Kshs. 360 Billion for the six months ended 30 June 2019 as compared to the same period in 2018. During the same period, the NSE reviewed its administrative costs leading to a one-off staff restructuring cost of Kshs. 52 Million. This is not expected to recur in the second half of 2019. Interest income in the review period decreased by 20% to Kshs. 47.2 Million from Kshs. 58.9 Million recorded over a similar period in 2018 due to utilization of deposits on acquisition of strategic investments. Share of profit in associate decreased by 66% from Kshs. 14.7 Million for the six months ended 30 June 2018 to Kshs. 5 Million for the same period in 2019 due to the decline in trading performance and increased system costs. Other comprehensive loss of Kshs. 10.7 Million for the period under review relates to unrealised loss on the fair value of a quoted investment acquired in 2019. This was passed through Other Reserves. total assets declined marginally by 1% from Kshs. 2.31 Billion as at 30 June 2018 to Kshs. 2.29 Billion as at 30 June 2019. Current liabilities as at 30 June 2019 include a first and final dividend approved for the financial year ended 31 December 2018 of Kshs. 127.2 Million which was paid in July 2019. Cash generated from operations for the six months ended 30 June 2019 declined as a result of the drop-in performance for the period and utilization of funds on strategic acquisitions. OUTLOOK – SECOND HALF OF 2019 Our expectation on market performance in the second half of 2019 is positive, driven by reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve Bank from the previous rate of 2.25% to 2.50% to the current benchmark rate of 2% to 2.25% effected in July 2019; which could spur activity in emerging and frontier markets by foreign investors. Stable macro-economic conditions supported by increased infrastructural investments by the Government will offer private sector players growth opportunities through their participation in the Big Four Agenda. The successful launch of the NSE NEXT Derivatives Market at the beginning of July 2019 presents a great opportunity for the NSE to diversify its revenue streams whilst providing investors advanced risk management tools and a new avenue for deployment of capital. The market will also increase liquidity of underlying assets as well as buttress our position as a leading financial services hub in Africa. The launch is a key milestone in the achievement of our strategic priorities. In the second half of the year, we will place special focus on increasing interaction with local and international investors and issuers in a bid to increase activity in the market. The NSE will also leverage on the Ibuka Program to create a pipeline of well-structured companies ready to list or access other capital options offered by the NSE. The Program has grown in leaps and bounds since its launch in 2018, attracting 16 companies since inception, underpinning the program’s attractiveness among Kenyan companies. The NSE will gear up efforts to facilitate issuance of corporate bonds to enable companies’ access short term capital to support their growth and expansion strategies. We will maintain our focus on information services, with NSE providing real time comprehensive market data on a cost basis, to data vendors and other consumers of data who need the same to make informed investment decisions. The NSE plans to grow this revenue line by actively engaging with entities and institutions that rely on market data to make business decisions. With the ongoing upgrade of the Automated Trading System, we anticipate increased trading activity catalyzed by increased systems efficiencies and trading capabilities. During the period, the NSE will enhance internal efficiencies at an enterprise wide level and initiate strategic cost reduction initiatives to optimize resources in line with its commitment to maximize shareholder and stakeholder value. The NSE will also benefit from reduced staff costs as a result of the staff restructuring carried out in the first half of 2019. DIVIDENDS The Board of Directors does not recommend the payment of an interim dividend for the first half of the year 2019.
Conclusions
They are correlated to Trading Activity and I don't see an immediate Upturn.
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