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Monday 11th of November 2019 |
11-NOV-2019 :: The Markets are Run by Machines, Computers, Algorithms and Bots Africa |
Once upon a time many many years ago, the markets were traded on the Phone and a human had to speak to another human in order to trade. You read the Paper on the way to work, the TV was always on, You relied on a trusted network of humans in different parts of the World. That time feels as long ago as a Fairy Tale. I recall in the 1990s when the Internet arrived on the Trading Floor. Today, as The Economist headlined October 5th, it is [The] ''March of the machines The stockmarket is now run by computers, algorithms and passive managers'' Morningstar, a research firm, reported that for the first time, the pot of passive equity assets it measures, at $4.3trn, exceeded that run by humans. The Financial Markets are a ''Bot'' World with Bots trading with each other. And There is clearly a convergence with Computational propaganda The University of Oxford's Oxford Institute Computational Propaganda Research project produced a research piece which spoke of ''the use of algorithms, automation, and big data to shape public life – is becoming a pervasive and ubiquitous part of everyday life.
Cambridge Analytica's now infamous Andrew Nix said
“We just put information into the bloodstream to the internet and then watch it grow, give it a little push every now and again over time to watch it take shape. And so this stuff infiltrates the online community and expands but with no branding – so it’s unattributable, untraceable.”
“So the candidate is the puppet?,” the undercover reporter asked. “Always,” replied Mr Nix.
Practically every Trading day now and for over a year, President Trump recycles the same headline.
The latest iteration ''Donald Trump says China trade talks moving ‘very nicely’, claiming Beijing wants deal more than US'' [SCMP].
Recycle the same headline over and over and over again. And each time markets jump. And each time it means nothing tweeted @NorthmanTrader You know why algos buy unsubstantiated headlines? Because they're stupid. @NorthmanTrader
This Feedback Loop has lifted stock markets particularly in the United States to all time highs and there has been a spillover into other developed markets. The Human Institutional Memory has been eroded and if you traded on the basis of fundamentals, You would have been stopped out a decade ago. This is a House of Cards of simply monstrous proportions and has been bulked up with the steroids of Free money, negative interest rates and QE.
Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.
This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper.
The Hollow Men T.S. ELIOT
Interestingly, last week, we saw a reversal of the overwhelming Safe Haven Demand we had witnessed all year. Gold had its worse week in 2 years. G7 Government Bonds sold off. The US 10 year printed its highest yield since mid Sep, trading above 1.90%. The German 10 year yield was at its highest since mid July, last at -0.274%. French 10 Year Yields crossed into positive Territory.
The Global markets pirouette on the outcome of the Trade War. SCMP news carried an article
Trade negotiator who got China into WTO is rooting for Trump’s re-election because ‘Twitterer in Chief’ is easy to read.
Donald Trump, whose trade war with China has upended global supply chains and imperilled the world’s economic growth, would be most welcomed with another four years in the White House because he is easier to read than other American politicians, said the negotiator who led China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The US president's daily Twitter posts broadcast his every impulse, delight and peeve to 67 million followers around the world, making him “easy to read” and “the best choice in an opponent for negotiations,” said Long Yongtu, the former vice-minister of foreign trade and point man during China’s 15-year talks to join the WTO nearly two decades ago
Now its clear that Trump is playing a Game and he has played it rather well. And it is also within Xi's power to absolutely crash the US market by simply pronouncing that ''No Trade Deal is possible'' and the US stock indices will sink as far as the US Farm Economy has sunk and with it Trump's relection chances. And my Final point is that whilst the ‘Twitterer in Chief’ is easy to read, I am not sure he is the Decider.
The risk of Bot and algorithmic mayhem is sky high and I am not sure pumping the Patient with more QE and Free Money will do the trick next time around.
The Bots will be waiting for Santa Claus and a Christmas rally so as President Trump is wont to tweet
Stock Market up big today. A New Record. Enjoy!
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Trade negotiator who got China into WTO is rooting for Trump's re-election because 'Twitterer in Chief' is easy to read @SCMPNews Africa |
Donald Trump, whose trade war with China has upended global supply chains and imperilled the world’s economic growth, would be most welcomed with another four years in the White House because he is easier to read than other American politicians, said the negotiator who led China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The US president's daily Twitter posts broadcast his every impulse, delight and peeve to 67 million followers around the world, making him “easy to read” and “the best choice in an opponent for negotiations,” said Long Yongtu, the former vice-minister of foreign trade and point man during China’s 15-year talks to join the WTO nearly two decades ago. “We want Trump to be re-elected; we would be glad to see that happen,” Long said during Credit Suisse’s China Investment Conference yesterday in Shenzhen. Long, who turned 76 in March, has retired from active ministerial posts and doesn’t speak for China’s government in matters concerning the domestic affairs of other countries. But the comment from someone considered the elder statesman of China’s trade diplomacy does offer a hint of the thinking in Beijing’s policymaking circle, as officials grapple with how best to handle the bruising trade war between the two largest economies on Earth. “Trump talks about material interests, not politics,” Long said in an interview with South China Morning Post in Shenzhen. “Such an opponent is the best choice for negotiations.”
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RE CCP on Trump: @BaldingsWorld Africa |
RT: When (CCP) say this, they've already misread America. True that Trump's tweets tells a lot about what's in Mr Trump. But what china miss is that, unlike authoritarian rule under which one man can decide everything, Trump can't negotiate with china at will
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27-MAY-2019 :: China vs. US War Ballistic Africa |
The point being in the trade war Trump is no longer the decider. In the US, there is clearly a consensus baseline for a full-on toe to toe slugfest as it were. In China, however, there is only one decider who was pronounced as much by Xinhua in a historical announcement in March 2018. Xi reckons he can direct a successful, society-wide struggle in the trade dispute’’ Notwithstanding all the hyperbole and very partisan commentary, the following are the plain Truths. The Markets are still pricing in a benign [but much less benign than a month ago] Outcome. We need to consider what a non-benign or even maximum non-benign outcome looks like.
however
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Navarro says @realDonaldTrump will not roll back tariffs for phase one trade deal with China @YahooFinance Africa |
“There's no rollback at all,” Navarro said. “So we need the tariffs there, but the tariffs are really our best insurance policy as well to make sure that the Chinese are negotiating in good faith.” Navarro’s comments echoed that of his boss. “Well, they’d like to have a rollback. I haven't agreed to anything,” President Trump told reporters earlier on Friday, adding “China would like to get somewhat of a rollback — not a complete rollback, because they know I won't do it.” Navarro, one of the main China hawks at the White House, believes the U.S. needs to keep tariffs in place to ensure the enforcement of signed provisions and to negotiate for future ones. The phase one deal mainly covers intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer and currency manipulation. The provisions on IP theft is entirely from the failed deal in May, which the U.S. accused China of reneging on last minute, according to Navarro. Other corners of the Trump administration are not in line with Navarro and Trump. On Thursday, Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg that “if there’s a phase one trade deal, there are going to be tariff agreements and concessions.” On Friday, White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham added, in a Fox News interview, that “I imagine, if we reach [a deal] then some tariffs could be lifted.”
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The Gamification of Bitcoin @aier @jp_koning Africa |
Eleven years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto announced the bitcoin whitepaper to the world. Coinbase, a large cryptocurrency exchange, recently celebrated this milestone with a retrospective. I’m going to remix Coinbase’s narrative to tell a different account of bitcoin’s last 11-years. The thing that fooled us all for a while, myself included, is that we all thought bitcoin was solving a monetary or payments problem. It was labelled a coin, after all, and coins fall within the realm of monetary economics. To further complicate matters, Satoshi told his story using phrases like “electronic cash system” and “non-reversible transactions”. Perhaps we deserve to be forgiven for not seeing bitcoin’s underlying nature. After all, tearing down the existing monetary system and building a new one was a fresh and exciting narrative. Anyways, Coinbase still believes this old tale. “As with other technologies, money has gone through many upgrades over the years,” its marketing team writes. “Bitcoin is the latest breakthrough in a technology that’s millennia old.” What is now apparent is that bitcoin was never a monetary phenomenon. No, bitcoin is a new sort of financial betting game. It is a digital, global, highly-secure, and fairer version of the old-fashioned chain letter. The premise behind bitcoin-the-game is that the current wave of buyers must guess when (or if) a subsequent wave of buyers will emerge, this second next wave’s participation being contingent on when (or if) they believe a third wave of buyers to emerge. If they guess right, the early birds win at the expense of the late ones. And they can win a lot of money, as Coinbase points out in its post: Think of bitcoin as a pure mind game, a Keynesian beauty contest in which we “devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.” Those old fashioned chain letters that you (or your parents) used to get in the mail were an early type of beauty contest. The price that Alice was willing to place on a chain letter was a function of whether she expected the next recipient, Bill, to play by the rules and send it on, Bill’s expectation in turn depending on the odds that Jack would join the game. But chain letters had a major flaw. The chain order could be easily compromised by a fraudster who miscopied the list and put their name at the front. Bitcoin fixes this by introducing robustness to chain letter-type games. Bitcoin’s blockchain is an unbreakable public record of where in line game players stand. Altering this chain order would require tremendous amounts of computer power, as Coinbase illustrates in this chart: Bitcoin-the-game has been spectacularly successful. As Coinbase points out, it “went from an idea in 2008, and a first transaction in 2009, to over 27 million users in the US alone in 2019, or 9% of Americans.” Below, Coinbase has charted the number of active bitcoin addresses that have been created over the years: Why did bitcoin-the-game succeed? First, it’s a fun and cutting-edge game. Many people dream of thrusting themselves out of financial obscurity into millionaire land. Bitcoin is a technologically-sophisticated way to get there. No one wants to play grandpa’s lottery. Secondly, the way that bitcoin is designed helps it spread. Most of the legacy financial games that bitcoin competes with (poker, lotteries, sports betting) are regulated by the government. Strict rules prevent game providers from reaching a wide audience. For instance, online casinos may be prevented from serving out-of-state players, problem gamblers may be banned, and those who are under 18 must be excluded. These financial games are usually centralized. This means they are hosted on a single website, or at a physical location like a casino, or by a government-run lottery corporation. Which makes it easy for regulators to shut down game providers who break the rules. But bitcoin is different. Because it is a decentralized and digital financial game, it can’t be regulated or shut down. And so it can serve the entire globe with impunity. Which it has done by spreading into every crack and cranny on earth. As is illustrated by another of Coinbase’s charts: Based entirely on whisps and storms of psychology, the price of bitcoin is inherently volatile. Its core volatility has stayed pretty much constant over the last 11-years. Users should expect the same for the next 11 years. Even if more people join a Keynesian beauty contest, the average opinion of the average opinion will always be a fickle, inconsistent thing, and so price will always be jittery. So what about bitcoin-as-money? Yes, people do use bitcoin for payments. But this gets dwarfed by its popularity as a financial game. The problem is this. Bitcoin payment functionality is implemented on top of a highly volatile chassis, a fun but fickle beauty contest. Which hobbles the effectiveness of the payments platform. Regular folks won’t use the stuff to pay. They don’t want the value of their spending stash to fall by 20% overnight. And game players don’t want to waste their tokens on buying goods & services. That could mean potentially missing out on a life changing jackpot. That’s why the promise of mainstream bitcoin payments has died a thousand deaths over the last 11 years. That being said, the demand for bitcoin in economically volatile regions such as Venezuela has hit record highs. Coinbase suggests that thanks to inflation and capital controls, bitcoin is finally being used as the electronic cash for which it was originally designed. Coinbase could be right. In places like the U.S. with functioning monetary systems, bitcoin is just too awkward to serve as a payments alternative. But in places where monetary breakdowns have occurred, regular folks may be more willing to put up with the inherent pitfalls of transacting with bitcoin. And so we finally get to see bitcoin-as-money emerging.That’s a good thing. But bitcoin’s popularity in Venezuela is also consistent with the bitcoin-as-game narrative. When people are desperate to improve their lives, they may have little other option but to roll the dice. In Run Lola Run, Lola needs to quickly make 100,000 Deutschmarks to save her boyfriend’s life. She races to a casino and plays roulette. Likewise, in the face of societal collapse, Venezuelans may simply be gambling on whatever potentially life-changing bet they can find. Bitcoin is one such a bet. Unwinding what portion of Venezuelan usage is due to bitcoin-as-game versus bitcoin-as-money is tricky. Coinbase goes on to spout the typical cryptocurrency industry nonsense about legacy payments. It claims that “sending an international wire transfer by major US banks costs around $45, can take days to process, and can be done only during banking hours.” And here is the chart it uses: That may be a good critique from ten years ago. But with SWIFT gpi having rolled out a few years back, multinationals can make near real-time cross border payments using the traditional correspondent banking system. For individuals and small businesses, fintech Transferwise offers instant remittances over fiat rails. These can settle on weekends in nations like the UK, which have real-time retail payments systems. I’ve touched on this before. Continuing along with hyperbole, Coinbase makes the claim that bitcoin remittance fees are minimal compared to fiat. But this ignores the sizable foreign exchange fees that one must pay when converting fiat into bitcoin and back into fiat. I’ve gone into this calculus before. What’s next for Bitcoin? asks Coinbase in closing. Let me give it a shot. It’s possible that bitcoin-as-game will stay popular for a very long time. And if it does, that could be a good thing. As I’ve suggested before, there is a demand as-such for financial games and bets, specifically early-bird bets. Compared to many of the fly-by-night games out there, bitcoin provides a fair and trustworthy option. What about the original vision that got us all so excited, bitcoin-as-money? Crippled by bitcoin’s game-based engine, bitcoin payments are probably never going to move beyond the niche role that they currently occupy. That’s better than nothing. When those on the fringes are temporarily cut off from the conventional payments system, they’ll always have an option for making transactions. It might not be a user-friendly option, but at least it’s there.
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27-NOV-2017 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!" Africa |
“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It Is the parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe- that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’
If you spend your life deeply immersed in the markets, then it is necessary to sniff out these parabolic moves. And it’s better to do right than say right as Edwin Lefevre noted nearly a century ago.
Or as T.S Eliot said in The Hollow Men
Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom.
‘’One of the few men to get out in time before the Wall Street crash of 1929 did so – legend has it – because he was offered a stock tip by the boy who shined his shoes. He immediately sold all his holdings. If the mania for gambling on the stock market had reached down to the children on the streets, the bubble must have been due to pop at any moment. The corresponding moment for the cryptocurrency bubble will only be discernible in retrospect, but we have some pretty strong candidates already. The endorsement of one project by the reality TV star Paris Hilton has already happened.’’
There are many cryptocurrency schemes which are sold on the same grounds as the greatest South Sea Bubble prospectus: “For carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.”
My investment thesis at the start of the year was that Bitcoin was going to get main-streamed in 2017. It has main-streamed beyond my wildest dreams, therefore, I am now sidelined.
Let me leave you with Hunter S.Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”
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The Hollow Men Mistah Kurtz - he dead Africa |
V
Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.
Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom
Between the conception And the creation Between the emotion And the response Falls the Shadow Life is very long
Between the desire And the spasm Between the potency And the existence Between the essence And the descent Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom
For Thine is Life is For Thine is the
This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper.
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Kabir by Swami Sivananda Africa |
When Kabir died, his body was claimed by both the Hindus and the Mohammedans. The King of Kashi, with thousands of Hindus, wanted to cremate the body. The Hindus claimed that Kabir was a Hindu and that therefore his body should be burnt. Bizli Khan, with thousands of Mohammedans, wanted to bury it.
The Mohammedans said that Kabir was a Muslim and therefore his body ought to be buried under Mohammedan rites. While they were quarrelling, Kabir's apparition appeared and said, "I was neither a Hindu nor a Mohammedan. I was both. I was nothing. I was all. I discern God in both. There is no Hindu and no Mussalman. To him who is free from delusion, Hindu and Mussalman are the same. Remove the shroud and behold the miracle!"
The shroud was removed. A large quantity of flowers was seen under it. Half of the flowers was taken by the king of Kashi and burnt on the bank of holy Ganga. The ashes were then buried and a temple was built. This temple is known by the name of Kabir Chaura--a great place of pilgrimage for the followers of Kabir. The other half of the flowers was taken by the Mohammedans and buried at Moghar where Kabir died. A mosque was built over the grave. This is a place of pilgrimage for the Mohammedans.
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The Swing by Kabir Songs of #Kabir Africa |
Between the Poles of the Conscious and the Unconscious there has the Mind made a Swing. Thereon hang all Beings and all worlds, and that Swing never ceases it's Sway Millions of Beings are there The Sun and the Moon in their courses are there Millions of ages pass And The Swing goes on. All Swing! The Sky and the Earth and the Air and the Water
Political Reflections
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Ayodhya dispute or Ram Janmabhoomi - Babri Masjid Land Title Dispute is a political, historical and socio-religious debate in India, centred on a plot of land in the city of Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh. Law & Politics |
The issues revolve around the control of a site traditionally regarded among Hindus to be the birthplace of the Hindu deity Rama,[1] the history and location of the Babri Masjid at the site, and whether a previous Hindu temple was demolished or modified to create the mosque. The Babri Masjid was destroyed during a political rally which turned into a riot on 6 December 1992. A subsequent land title case was lodged in the Allahabad High Court, the verdict of which was pronounced on 30 September 2010. In the judgment, the three judges of the Allahabad High Court ruled that the 2.77 acres (1.12 ha) of Ayodhya land be divided into three parts, with 1⁄3 going to the Ram Lalla or Infant Rama represented by the Hindu Maha Sabha, 1⁄3 going to the Sunni Waqf Board and the remaining 1⁄3 going to Nirmohi Akhara. The judgment affirmed that the disputed land was the birthplace of Rama as per the faith and belief of Hindus, and that the Babri Masjid was built after the demolition of a Hindu temple, noting that it wasn't built in accordance with the tenets of Islam.[2][3] The five judges Supreme Court bench heard the title dispute cases from August to October 2019.[4][5] On 9 November 2019, the Supreme Court ordered the land to be handed over to a trust to build the Hindu temple. It also ordered to the government to give alternate 5 acre land to Sunni Waqf Board to build the mosque
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Babri Masjid (Mosque of Babur) It is believed that one of his generals, Mir Baqi, built the Babri Masjid ("Babur's Mosque") in 1528 on his orders Law & Politics |
Babur was the first Mughal emperor of India and the founder of the Mughal empire. It is believed that one of his generals, Mir Baqi, built the Babri Masjid ("Babur's Mosque") in 1528 on his orders.[18] The belief came into currency since 1813–14, when the East India Company's surveyor Francis Buchanan reported that he found an inscription on the mosque walls which attested to this fact. He also recorded the local tradition, which believed that emperor Aurangzeb (r. 1658–1707) built the mosque after demolishing a temple dedicated to Rama.[19][20] Between 1528 and 1668, no text mentioned the presence of a mosque at the site.[21] The earliest historical record of a mosque comes from Jai Singh II, a Rajput noble in the Mughal court, who purchased the land of the mosque and the surrounding area in 1717. His documents show a three-domed structure resembling the mosque, which is however labelled the "birthplace" (chhathi). In the courtyard can be seen a platform (chabutra) to which Hindu devotees are shown circumambulating and worshipping.[22] All these details were corroborated by the Jesuit priest Joseph Tieffenthaler half a century later.[23] Tieffenthaler also explained the reason for this, "that once upon a time, here was a house where Beschan [Vishnu] was born in the form of Ram."[24] Both the Hindus and Muslims are said to have worshipped at the "mosque-temple," Muslims inside the mosque and Hindus outside the mosque but inside the compound. After the British took over the State, they put up a railing between the two areas to prevent disputes.[25] In 1949, after India's independence, an idol of Ram was placed inside the mosque, which triggered the dispute.[26][better source needed]
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Lula Is Free. @peoplesdispatch Law & Politics |
Just before 5pm on Friday the 8th of November, Brazil’s former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva walked out of his prison in Curitiba (Brazil). Lula went to prison in April last year on a 12-year sentence. Five-hundred and eighty days of prison are now over, as the Federal Supreme Court ruled that inmates who have not yet exhausted their appeals should not be held in prison. In addition to Lula, about 5,000 Brazilians – mostly poor and black – can be released based on the Supreme Court’s decision. Many of them have not been previously afforded the presumption of innocence, and large numbers of them have been in prison without proper legal defense. The Supreme Court verdict was not directed at Lula, but at the undemocratic nature of the judicial system which had held people in prison before they had exhausted their appeals. Lula’s situation mirrored that of these thousands of other prisoners. It was as part of a judicial criticism of the unjust system that Lula was able to be free. It must be chilling for Bolsonaro to watch the television and see Lula walk confidently out of his prison and into the political domain. Elections have brought the left back to power in Argentina, with the left retaining power in Bolivia. Even in Colombia, the left has made significant gains. Mass protests in Chile and Ecuador suggest the tide has turned in those two countries. Bolsonaro must know that the turn to the left in Brazil is imminent. The left now has its champion out on the streets.
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Unidentified foreign drone shot down in Iran, say news agencies @guardian Law & Politics |
The Iranian army has shot down an unidentified foreign drone near the port of Bandar-e Mahshahr on the Gulf coast, according to reports from the country’s news agencies. The unmanned aircraft was downed over Iranian territory with domestically manufactured Mersad surface-to-air missiles. Provincial governor Gholamreza Shariati told agencies that the drone belonged to a foreign country and that parts of it had been recovered in a nearby lagoon. Iranian news agencies said the drone was shot down in the country’s airspace. The US has denied that the drone was theirs. The seriousness of the latest episode will largely depend on the ownership of the drone, and whether it was for military or civilian purposes. The port is the leading hub for Iranian activity in the Gulf, as well as a petrochemical facility. Iran has claimed to have shot down drones before, only for further news on the incidents not to be made public.
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"PROTEST ALL DAY, PARTY ALL NIGHT": HOW RAVE IS UNITING THE LEBANESE REBELLION @Mixmag Law & Politics |
The wave of protests in Lebanon have been defined by hard partying rather than destruction and violence It’s midnight on a Tuesday night in Beirut and a crowd is forming around a white van that has pulled up in Martyrs’ Square. A dense cloud of smoke is being spewed out from the squealing tires of a nearby BMW, and through it moves a mishmash of street children, wealthy students, and shirtless men wearing masks. Some are shouting at two figures scrambling over the roof of the van tying down speakers and plugging in cables. It’s nine days since Lebanese protesters spontaneously took to the streets after a raft of new taxes were announced, including a $0.29 daily charge on voice calls made through WhatsApp. The eruption of mass protests closed the country’s banks, universities and night clubs, and led to impromptu all-night DIY raves springing up at protest sites and in abandoned buildings across the country. So far, this latest wave of protests in Lebanon has been defined mainly by hard partying and celebration rather than destruction and violence, however, there is edge of apprehension amongst the crowd in the square as the sound system is set up. Standing to one side Bassam, one of the crew of friends that rented the speakers and borrowed the van, is concerned that they could be targeted by supporters of the government. “We’re not sure if we’re going to play,” he says anxiously. “We don’t want to make too much of a scene in the current political climate. We’re going to make a decision sometime in the next ten minutes.” As well as demonstrating against government corruption and increased taxation, these protests are pushing for an end to sectarianism in politics. Instead of carrying the flags of the country’s various religiously aligned political groups, protesters are, irrespective of their sect, all carrying the national flag of Lebanon. “Until recently, I had never been to a protest before,” says Fonzo, a Beirut-based DJ who is friends with Bassam. “But, when I went to Martyrs’ Square and saw the flags everywhere, I knew that this time it was different.” As time passes the crowd becomes increasingly impatient for music and more people gather around the van. Eventually, when Fonzo moves behind the decks and starts putting on his headphones, the crowd starts chanting “thawra,” the Arabic word for “revolution”. The chanting descends into cheering and dancing when he drops his first tune – a house remix of Zaki Nassif’s 'Rajeh Yittammar', an Arabic folk anthem from Lebanon’s civil war, which directly translates as 'We Will Rebuild'. The remix was created by the Lebanese producer and former NBA basketball player Rony Seikaly as a direct response to the protests and was being played out on the streets of Beirut just hours after he uploaded it to SoundCloud on October 21. As soon as the music starts blasting and the crowd is moving, the crew that brought the sound system quickly forget about keeping a low profile – encouraging people with large flags to join them on the roof of the van and spraying drinks all over the dancers at the front. As Fonzo mixes deep house and melodic techno people are grinning and slapping hands. A bearded hipster is dancing with a young Syrian migrant who was selling flowers on the street. Strangers are sharing cups of vodka and cigarettes. For Goose, like many others in Lebanon, the DIY protest raves are a powerful symbol. At a time of extreme political uncertainty, with potentially grave consequences, they show that the population can work together without being divided by religious identities.
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Tesla's @elonMusk, Greenlight's Einhorn @davidein taunt each other on Twitter Reuters. World Currencies |
(Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and noted short-seller David Einhorn mocked each other in open letters published on Twitter on Friday, trading barbs clothed in polite language. Einhorn on Oct. 30 had told his investors at Greenlight Capital that his fund had lost money on Tesla. Greenlight bet against the electric carmaker, and shares rose in the second quarter. Still, he told investors that Tesla “appears to continue to spin positive PR ahead of the safety and fair treatment of its customers.” Musk, who has a history of being playful on Twitter, began an exchange by posting an open letter here on Twitter addressing Einhorn as "Dear Mr. Unicorn (fabulous name btw)". Einhorn means unicorn in German. Musk further added that Einhorn made numerous “false allegations” against Tesla and offered “sympathies” for a drop in assets under management. “It is understandable that you wish to save face with your investors, given the losses you suffered from Tesla’s successful third quarter, especially since you’ve had several down years in performance and a sharp drop in assets under management from $15 billion to $5 billion,” Musk wrote. Einhorn responded with an open letter here on Twitter, asking the billionaire entrepreneur to be specific about false statements, so that Greenlight could correct them. “By continually changing the narrative and narrowly averting crisis after crisis, you certainly have kept it interesting,” Einhorn said. Einhorn said his hedge fund and Tesla had “some similarities and some differences”. “We both struggled last year. However, a key difference is that Greenlight’s business has generated real profits for our investors since we began in 1996,” Einhorn said. Greenlight Capital first rose to prominence for making a prescient call on Lehman Brothers’ accounting troubles before the firm’s collapse. Last year, it compared Tesla to Lehman and earlier this year said the company appeared to be “on the brink” of failure. Investors in the past have shown impatience with Tesla’s failures to meet financial and production targets. The carmaker, however, put some concerns to rest after delivering a surprise profit in its third quarter. Musk invited Einhorn to meet him and tour Tesla’s facilities to learn about the company’s progress. “Finally, please allow us to send you a small gift of short shorts to help you through this difficult time,” Musk said, signing off as “Treelon Musk.” Einhorn welcomed the offer to learn more about Tesla. “I think facility visits would be fun (can we start in Buffalo?). I might learn the difference between your alien dreadnought factory and cars made by hand in a tent.”
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13-AUG-2019 :: The Feedback Loop Phenomenon Emerging Markets |
China has exerted the power of pull over a vast swathe of the world over the last two decades. We can call it the China, Asia, EM and Frontier markets feedback loop. This feedback loop has been largely a positive one for the last two decades. With the Yuan now in retreat [and in a precise res- ponse to Trump], this will surely exert serious downside pressure on those countries in the Feedback Loop. To wit, emerging market stocks closed down for 11 days running , 12 being an all-time record which was narrowly missed. The Purest Proxy for the Chi- na, Asia, EM and Frontier markets feedback loop phenomenon is the South African Rand aka the ZAR.
Frontier Markets
Sub Saharan Africa
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Pressure Grows on Britain to Return Its Last African Colony @bpolitics Africa |
From a one-story house with mustard-colored walls off a bustling road in Mauritius, Olivier Bancoult is defying the U.K. by plotting a return to the tiny tropical island where he was born. A 55-year-old native of the remote Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean, Bancoult heads a group of mostly elderly women who, like him, were expelled shortly after Britain bought the archipelago from its then-colony Mauritius in 1965. His campaign has taken him to London and the United Nations and secured him a meeting with Pope Francis. As a young boy, Bancoult and the other roughly 2,000 inhabitants of Chagos were deported to the U.K., Mauritius and Seychelles. The new owners then gassed the residents’ pets, closed the coconut plantations and allowed the U.S. to build a military base on the biggest island of Diego Garcia. With the exception of the air force base seen as crucial for U.S. operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan, the U.K. has kept the islands free of inhabitants by declaring an area the size of France a protected marine reserve in 2010. Only a few people are allowed to visit briefly each year, and they can’t stay overnight. My mother died here, without ever having been back to her home,” Bancoult said in an interview. “I won’t let that happen to me.” At a time when politicians in Britain are evoking its imperial past as the U.K. prepares to quit the European Union, the country is under international pressure to give up its last African colony, a sign of its diminished global importance when only 80 years ago it held sway over almost a quarter of the world’s population. “What Britain is facing today is having to confront its colonial past, whether it’s Chagos or Northern Ireland,” said Philippe Sands, a London-based lawyer who serves as Counsel for Mauritius. “It’s the story of its empire coming back to haunt it.” In February, the International Court of Justice ruled the 1965 excision of the Chagos Archipelago from Mauritius unlawful because it wasn’t based on the free will of the people concerned. In an advisory opinion, the court stated that the U.K. has an obligation to end its administration of the archipelago “as rapidly as possible.” Then, in May, the UN General Assembly affirmed the ruling by an overwhelming majority, with 116 member states voting in favor of a resolution setting a six-month deadline for the U.K. to withdraw. Only six members rejected the proposal -- the U.S., Hungary, Israel and Australia among them. The deadline expires on Nov. 22. “A UN General Assembly resolution doesn’t mean you have to comply, but obviously it’s very embarrassing for them,” said David Brewster, a senior research fellow at the National Security College in Canberra, Australia. “That’s what happens when you alienate your allies.” At the end of his September visit to Mauritius, Pope Francis chided the U.K., saying it needs to respect the wishes of international institutions. But things are unlikely to change overnight. The U.K. argues it can’t give up the Chagos Islands for security reasons. It doesn’t recognize Mauritius’s claim over what it calls the British Indian Ocean Island Territory, or BIOT, a spokesperson for the U.K.’s Foreign & Commonwealth Office said in an email. “The joint U.K.–U.S. defense facility on the British Indian Ocean Territory helps to keep people in Britain and around the world safe from terrorism, organized crime and piracy,” the spokesperson said. “The status of BIOT as a U.K. territory is essential to the value of the joint facility and our shared interests -– an arrangement that cannot be replicated.” Mauritian Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth, who won an election last week, has vowed to pursue the decolonization process with “unflinching determination.” But he’s also tried to allay concerns about the future of Diego Garcia, saying he has no objections to the base and is ready to enter into a long-term arrangement with the U.S.
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Zambia's president vows to contain debt within sustainable levels @ReutersAfrica Africa |
Lungu said at a media conference that the government is implementing several policy measures to protect the vulnerable and reduce the cost of running the government. “The medium-term debt strategy has been developed to inform the path for debt sustainability,” Lungu said. The government has suspended some infrastructure projects and was also curbing travel expenditure of senior officials, Lungu said. Lungu said the government was also trying to ensure that only genuine employees were on the public sector wage bill. Zambia has made progress in its energy sector reforms, intended to leave fuel imports to the private sector and to increase electricity tariffs to cover the cost of producing the power, he said. Lungu said Zambia could generate adequate resources internally to meet its development needs but this was being compromised by low tax compliance levels. Zambia’s external debt rose to $10.05 billion at the end of 2018, compared with $8.74 billion a year earlier, raising fears that the country is headed for a debt crisis. Zambia has delayed the receipt of loans totalling $2.6 billion contracted last year in order to rein in its soaring debt. Zambia will avoid a default and will continue to shun new loans as it reins in lending and expenditure, Finance Minister Bwalya Ng’andu said in August.
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14-OCT-2019 :: The Canary in the Coal Mine is Zambia. Africa |
You will agree that the overall picture is not very pretty. The Canary in the Coal Mine is Zambia. “Investors have lost faith in government promises to get spending under control and the government has fallen out with the IMF as well,” he said. In Zambia, Eurobonds are trading at 60c in the $
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Big Saturday Read: Two years after the coup - Part 1 @Wamagaisa #BSR Africa |
This month, the month of November, marks two years since Zimbabwe's former leader, Robert Mugabe lost power to his long-time ally and lieutenant Emmerson Mnangagwa in a coup which was orchestrated by military commanders. We shall be doing a series of papers based on thematic areas to assess the performance of the Mnangagwa regime for the past two years.
The first area of assessment is the protection of human rights. The analysis proceeds on the view that by most credible accounts, human rights were seriously imperiled under the Mugabe regime and it is a good point to assess whether there has been any improvement. The Mnangagwa regime started with bright promises of a new era. It touted itself as a “New Dispensation”, attempting to contrast and disentangle itself from the Mugabe regime. It also described itself rather ambitiously as “the Second Republic” as if to summon good omens from the propitious gods of politics. However, there is nothing. on a balance of probabilities. to support the grand claims of novelty and difference from the Mugabe regime. Instead there have been a series of continuities from the old regime over the course of the two years. The promise of a new dispensation has been nothing more than a mirage.
Failure to reform The Mnangagwa regime had a great opportunity to demonstrate its willingness and commitment to uphold and respect human rights by swiftly repealing draconian legislation. The symbols of such repressive laws were the Public Order and Security Act (POSA) and the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA), both products of the Mugabe regime with POSA having longer roots in colonial legislation. It replaced the Law and Order Maintenance Act (LOMA) which ironically had been inherited at independence and used by people who had been its victims during the colonial era. . However, two years after the coup, both laws are still on the statute books. The regime’s recent claims to the world that they have been repealed are patently false. As a matter of fact, POSA has been repeatedly used by the regime to ban demonstrations by members of the opposition and trade unions. The pace of legal reforms in these areas have been slow. Furthermore, the so-called amendments are no more than a fraud. For example, in place of POSA, the regime is proposing a new law called MOPO which in substance is no different. It is just like in 2002 when the Mugabe regime repealed the 1960s repressive LOMA and replaced it with POSA. The net effect is that colonial-style legislation continues decades after independence. Political rights The continuation of repression is also evident in the area of political rights. These include the rights to demonstrate and petition, free speech and the freedom of assembly. These specific rights enable people to participate freely in a democratic society and to hold their leaders to account. However, as already pointed out, POSA and AIPPA still stand in the way of the enjoyment of these rights. Indeed, when the government invited the UN to assess Zimbabwe’s situation, the world body sent a Special Rapporteur, Mr. Clément Nyaletsossi Voule. His report was damning. It demonstrated that the rights to assembly, demonstrate and free speech were heavily restricted. More ominously the repressive use of these laws has been supported by the judiciary. When the official opposition party tried to hold demonstrations in August 2019, the police banned them at the eleventh hour. When the opposition party challenged the bans, the courts threw out the legal challenges effectively supporting the government ban. When a junior doctors’ union leader, Dr Peter Magombeyi led his members demanding better working conditions, he was abducted and held incommunicado for nearly a week. The young doctor was only released after relentless pressure from fellow doctors, including senior consultants who joined the protests. Leaders of a union of rural teachers (ARTUZ) have been arrested on spurious charges for daring to stand up for their members’ rights. Even their lawyer, Douglas Coltart has also been abused and arrested in the course of representing his clients. More recently, the courts have also backed government bans on attempts by civil servants’ unions to demonstrate for decent wages. With the political referee on the right of the government, dissenting voices have very limited scope and space. Deployment of the military Two events illustrate the perilous nature of human rights in Zimbabwe. The first was the killing of civilians by members of the military and police on 1 August 2018 during election-related protests. The second episode was the protests in mid-January 2019 when soldiers were also deployed on the streets of Harare. Human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch reported that 17 people were killed after security forces used live ammunition against protestors. In both cases, the government took the drastic step of deploying soldiers ostensibly to assist the police to quell demonstrations.. A commission of inquiry established by Mnangagwa to investigate the events of 1 August 2009 found that the military and police were responsible for the killing of civilians. However, no action has been taken to hold the perpetrators to account. When the State does not prosecute or punish offenders, it encourages them to do the same in future. It promotes impunity. Given the length of time that has passed since the Kgalema Motlanthe Commission presented its report (December 2018) there is no appetite to implement its recommendations notwithstanding the regime’s claims to the contrary. After the expensive show of the Motlanthe Commission which was established to pull wool over the eyes of a shocked international community, the regime did not even bother to investigate the killing of civilians during the January protests. These two episodes demonstrated the worst excesses of state power and the fact that the regime which had promised much was in reality unreformed and unrepentant. De facto amnesty Under the Mugabe regime offenders got protection from prosecution through general amnesties and presidential pardons. More often than not, the protection was through the Attorney General’s deliberate failure to prosecute offenders. In this regard, very little has changed. Failure to prosecute offenders is tantamount to giving a general amnesty without declaring one. It’s a de facto amnesty extended to offenders. It makes them beholden to the regime while also giving them an incentive to re-offend knowing very well that they will not be held accountable for their misdeeds. It’s not surprising that after the killing of civilians in August 2018, they did not hesitate to kill again in January 2019. It has to be said that the regularity with which soldiers have been deployed by the regime is another signal of its inclination towards repressive instruments. Authoritarian regimes tend to resort to coercion when they are unable to have their will through consent. The frequent resort to the military is consistent with repressive regime’s proclivity towards coercion as an instrument of control. Property rights When the regime started, Mnangagwa pledged a new era in which property rights would be protected. He was keen to distinguish himself from his predecessor who had earned a reputation for disregarding property rights through the controversial Fast Track Land Reform Program that he led from 2000. While making it clear that he would not reverse the land reform, he pleaded to compensate the dispossessed white farmers and carry out a land audit to ensure fairness and effective use of land. However, two years down the line the land audit remains a pipe dream. Vast tracts of land remain unused or under-utilised in the hands of absentee landlords who hold multiple farms individually or though family members and associates. Underutilising land has added to the woes caused by drought resulting in poor levels of production. A country that used to feed itself and others is still begging for food. Neighbours who have also experienced droughts including Zambia and South Africa are selling food to Zimbabwe, a sign that some of the food shortages are man-made. There has been some effort at setting aside money to compensate the white farmers, but it is only a modest sum; more an act of symbolism than substantive compensation. The regime may have hoped that this symbolism would find recognition among the Western Powers and buy it some favours in the re-engagement drive. It was not a bad idea but it got drowned in the maelstrom of the killings of civilians and clampdown in political rights. The ghost of farm invasions More recently however there have been cases of further dispossession of land. Earlier when a coffee farmer in Manicaland was affected by an invasion the government intervened following an outcry over the invasion. The intervention came in favour of the white farmer. This week, another white farmer was evicted from his farm in Chinhoyi. In this case, the government has not intervened. What has changed?Perhaps the government was desperate for inclusion and reengagement when it intervened in the coffee farmer’s case. Prospects of successful reengagement existed. It’s failure to intervene over the Chinhoyi farmer comes in the wake of increasingly frosty relations with the West exacerbated by the clash over sanctions and a diplomatic row with the US. It’s possible that the government does not care anymore the same way it did at the time of the coffee farmer’s situation. But the images don’t help the regime’s cause. To be seen condoning dispossession in this day and age, something that should have been part of the past is self-defeating. There is so much unused land in Zimbabwe that it makes no sense whatsoever to take over a productive farm. It’s a gross failure of leadership that a country which is importing food at high cost is busy dispossessing productive farmers when there is an abundance of under-utilised land across the country. This is why it is true that while drought is a natural phenomenon, famine is a man-made calamity. Spurious charges and detentions The Criminal Law (Codification) Act became the favoured piece of legislation to persecute political rivals during the Mugabe regime. One of the more notorious offences was insulting the president. Many were detained under the presidential insults provisions. Two years after Mugabe fell, the law is still in use, reminding people to tread with caution. Another common charge is attempting to subvert a constitutionally elected government, a statutory relation to treason. Prominent politicians and political activists were detained for allegedly breaching these provisions under the Mugabe regime. In the two years that Mnangagwa has been in power there has been a flurry of arrests and detentions for breaching these provisions. The prosecutions invariably collapse and sink into the quick-sands of the justice system, but not before political opponents and activists have been immobilized and sufficiently harassed. A more insidious phenomenon is the spate of abductions and torture of political activists. The regime has blamed a “Third Force” for these abductions, which ironically exposes it as weak and lacking control of the country’s security situation. This year alone a number of political activists and civil society campaigners have been abducted and tortured. No one has been held accountable. This has extended to comedians and musicians who are regarded as promoting an anti-government narrative. This spreads fear among the citizens, causing them to recoil and avoid challenging or criticising the government. Real threat or Paranoia? The state of insecurity among citizens is reflected by Mnangagwa’s own fears for his own safety. His security arrangements have become visibly enhanced ever since he took power. Indeed, it seems he has a bigger human fortress than his predecessor ever had. Perhaps it is a circumstance of the manner in which he ascended to the presidency which created many enemies and unhappy people. Oddly enough, while there was an alleged assassination attempt at a political rally in Bulawayo last year, there has not been a single arrest or public prosecution of offenders. This leaves a yawning gap as to what is going on within the upper echelons of power. It seems more likely that there is mistrust among members of the establishment. Conclusion For years, Zimbabwe’s reputation regarding human rights has been abysmal. The fall of Mugabe was seen by some as a landmark moment which would represent a break with the past. These were misplaced hopes. It should have been clear that a coup would not represent serious change. The authors of the coup were motivated by a desire to wrestle power from a rival faction and to protect their interests. It was not intended for major transformation. The coup would also strengthen the militarisation of the state which was already in motion long before Mugabe was forced out. A militarised state relies upon coercion and it is not amenable to the protection of human rights. When Zimbabweans marched freely before Mugabe’s removal, one question that a few of us asked was how long the honeymoon between the military and the citizens would last. As it turned out, it was very brief. It has been a terribly unhappy marriage; a fallacious union built on the blessings of men in fatigues; an unholy union which has left citizens utterly flummoxed and traumatized. In the next piece we will look at the regime’s performance in respect of the economy.
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Nigeria targets oil companies for a greater share of profits @AFP @YahooNews Africa |
Lagos (AFP) - In a move Nigeria's president hailed as a "landmark moment", Africa's largest oil producer approved legislation this week to bolster its share of revenues from international majors. The authorities say the amendment -- heralded as the biggest change in decades to its production sharing deals -- will bring billions of dollars into state coffers as the country belatedly claims an "equitable share" of its vast natural resources. But oil industry insiders have slammed the change as an ill-planned attempt to grab money and warn that it could prompt an exodus of investments as foreign firms turn their backs on Nigeria. The changes redraw the Deep Offshore (and Inland Basin Production Sharing Contract) Act which been in force since it was passed in 1993 when Nigeria was under military rule. The law mandated that the split of revenues between the state and the international oil firms should be reviewed if prices climbed over $20 per barrel. But while crude has soared far above that point over the past two decades, a revision of the formula for revenue sharing was never carried out. Buhari's government have accused previous Nigerian lawmakers of having vested interests in making sure the bulk of oil revenues remained in private hands. The new law sets a staggered "royalty rate" on crude oil sold above $20 -- rising to the highest rate of 10 percent if the price reaches more than $150 a barrel -- with the revenue due to the government increasing in line with oil price rises. In a second revenue stream, oil companies will also pay a flat tax of 10 percent on off-shore fields and 7.5 percent on inland fields, within specified depths. Buhari's office has estimated the change will bring in at least $1.5 billion in added revenue by 2021. But according to experts, oil companies involved in off-shore production could review their investments, reducing the revenue boost Nigeria hopes to achieve. As oil prices slid in recent years, meaning a drop in revenue for the government, Nigeria has been steadily increasing pressure on some of the world's biggest energy companies -- Shell, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Eni, Total and CNOOC -- who extract most of the crude oil in Nigeria. About half of government spending is reliant on income from oil sales. In mid-October Nigeria’s government controversially claimed oil multinationals owed the country $62 billion in back revenues, which the oil firms disputed. "We have no idea how the government arrived at such an amount," a representative of one of the major oil firms told AFP on condition of anonymity. Since the claim, a government minister conceded the money was unlikely to be retrieved in its entirety but that a settlement could be reached. Emerging markets expert John Ashbourne insisted that the "fiscal crisis, with the federation forced to dedicate a larger and larger share of its revenue to paying off its debts" is a factor in Nigeria changing its agreements with oil firms. The attempt and the latest changes in the law signal a more stringent economic environment for multinationals, whose response could significantly impact Nigeria's oil-reliant economy. Major oil companies have long been accused of having a cosy relationship with lawmakers in Africa's largest economy. Despite large oil and gas reserves, the majority of people in Africa's most populous country live in extreme poverty, on less than $1.90 a day. Since the 2000's there have been repeated calls to amend the 1993 law -- but until the latest push the measures failed to get past Nigerian lawmakers. A report by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative said if contracts with oil companies were reviewed in 2008 Nigeria would have earned at least $16 billion in extra government revenue over the following decade. An oil industry source, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, warned the bill was the "beginning of the decline of deep water investments" in the country. "Oil companies have already started to pull out investments out of Nigeria," he said. Some in the oil industry claim that extracting oil from off-shore basins, drilling below the sea in Nigerian territorial waters, is already expensive and that the new amendments could make them unprofitable. "It is possible that this new tax will push costs over the break-even point," said Ashbourne. But he added that oil companies tend to exaggerate their warnings of negative repercussions when they find themselves facing an increased tax bill. "Resource firms always threaten this when faced with new taxes; but they seldom actually abandon their operations."
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Uganda's @KagutaMuseveni gives oil firms a month to consider deal @Total @CNOOC_Limited @TullowOilplc @The_EastAfrican Africa |
Five oil companies involved in the development of oilfields in Uganda’s Albertine Graben have been given one month to decide on several government proposals. Executives from Total E & P, China National Offshore Oil Company and Tullow met with President Yoweri Museveni on October 31 at State House, Entebbe to discuss key issues still hindering a final investment decision. The Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development Robert Kasande confirmed attending the meeting and said, “We have given them a month to come back to us.” Sources said that top of the agenda of the meeting was a failure to agree on an assessment by Uganda Revenue Authority of $167 million as due capital gains tax from Tullow’s aborted farmdown of 21.5 per cent of its current 33.3 per cent to Total E & P and CNOOC. The government is said to be against a proposal by Total to cover the difference of $83.5 million to be reclaimed at a later date from Tullow’s recoverable costs once the farmdown has been completed. The other contentious issues include a demand by the joint venture partners to be allowed to recover their costs before payment of taxes. The government has suggested a formula that puts a cap on recoverable costs each year to allow it recover some taxes.
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