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Friday 22nd of November 2019 |
"Such a strong signal has never been measured in ground-based gamma ray astronomy - this is the first time." @vice Africa |
For the first time, astrophysicists have observed a cosmic explosion emit particles that are a trillion times more energetic than visible light, a record-setting measurement from a phenomenon that scientists are still seeking to fully understand. When a star dies, its insides no longer support its own mass, and it crashes upon itself. This self-collision compresses the star’s core into a neutron star or a black hole, while generating explosions that produce a supernova. These explosions are GRBs, and they produce short-lived jets of extremely energetic light. GRBs may also occur when two neutron stars collide. They happen on a daily basis, and release as much energy in a few seconds as our Sun will emit in its entire 10 billion years of life. Until now, however, no telescope had observed a GRB emit photons (light particles) on the order of a teraelectronvolt, or TeV. “It's interesting to see how many things happen in the universe that are so different from us,” Moretti said. “That we know all this is mostly driven from curiosity, because we look at the stars we ask ourselves, ‘But why?’”
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Teraelectronvolt emission from the γ-ray burst GRB 190114C Africa |
Long-duration γ-ray bursts (GRBs) are the most luminous sources of electromagnetic radiation known in the Universe. They arise from outflows of plasma with velocities near the speed of light that are ejected by newly formed neutron stars or black holes (of stellar mass) at cosmological distances1,2. Prompt flashes of megaelectronvolt-energy γ-rays are followed by a longer-lasting afterglow emission in a wide range of energies (from radio waves to gigaelectronvolt γ-rays), which originates from synchrotron radiation generated by energetic electrons in the accompanying shock waves3,4. Although emission of γ-rays at even higher (teraelectronvolt) energies by other radiation mechanisms has been theoretically predicted5,6,7,8, it has not been previously detected7,8. Here we report observations of teraelectronvolt emission from the γ-ray burst GRB 190114C. γ-rays were observed in the energy range 0.2–1 teraelectronvolt from about one minute after the burst (at more than 50 standard deviations in the first 20 minutes), revealing a distinct emission component of the afterglow with power comparable to that of the synchrotron component.
Political Reflections
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07-OCT-2019 :: "This is the legendary DF41 ICBM" Law & Politics |
Hu Xijin [President Xi’s trusted mouth-piece] described as ‘’This is the legendary DF41 ICBM. But it is not a tale. Today it is displayed at Tiananmen Square I touched one about four years ago in the production plant. No need to fear it. Just respect it and respect China that owns it’’.
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China's unruly periphery resents the Communist Party's heavy hand @TheEconomist Law & Politics |
A few days ago hundreds of young people, some teenagers, turned the redbrick campus of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University into a fortress. Clad in black, their faces masked in black too, most of them remained defiant as they came under siege. Police shot rubber bullets and jets of blue-dyed water at them. Defenders crouched over glass bottles, filling them with fuel and stuffing them with fuses to make bombs. Many cheered the news that an arrow shot by one of their archers had hit a policeman in the leg. After more than five months of anti-government unrest in Hong Kong, the stakes are turning deadly. This time, many exhausted protesters surrendered to the police—the youngest of them were given safe passage. Mercifully, massive bloodshed has so far been avoided. But Hong Kong is in peril (see article). As The Economist went to press, some protesters were refusing to leave the campus, and protests continued in other parts of the city. They attract nothing like the numbers who attended rallies at the outset—perhaps 2m on one occasion in June. But they often involve vandalism and Molotov cocktails. Despite the violence, public support for the protesters—even the bomb-throwing radicals—remains strong. Citizens may turn out in force for local elections on November 24th, which have taken on new significance as a test of the popular will and a chance to give pro-establishment candidates a drubbing. The government’s one concession—withdrawing a bill that would have allowed suspects to be sent to mainland China for trial—did little to restore calm. Protesters say they want nothing less than democracy. They cannot pick their chief executive, and elections for Hong Kong’s legislature are wildly tilted. So the protests may continue. The Communist Party in Beijing does not seem eager to get its troops to crush the unrest. Far from it, insiders say. This is a problem that the party does not want to own; the economic and political costs of mass-firing into crowds in a global financial centre would be huge. But own the problem it does. The heavy-handedness of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and public resentment of it, is a primary cause of the turmoil. He says he wants a “great rejuvenation” of his country. But his brutal, uncompromising approach to control is feeding anger not just in Hong Kong but all around China’s periphery. When Mao Zedong’s guerrillas seized power in China in 1949, they did not take over a clearly defined country, much less an entirely willing one. Hong Kong was ruled by the British, nearby Macau by the Portuguese. Taiwan was under the control of the Nationalist government Mao had just overthrown. The mountain terrain of Tibet was under a Buddhist theocracy that chafed at control from Beijing. Communist troops had yet to enter another immense region in the far west, Xinjiang, where Muslim ethnic groups did not want to be ruled from afar. Seventy years on, the party’s struggle to establish the China it wants is far from over. Taiwan is still independent in all but name. In January its ruling party, which favours a more formal separation, is expected to do well once again in presidential and parliamentary polls. “Today’s Hong Kong, tomorrow’s Taiwan” is a popular slogan in Hong Kong that resonates with its intended audience, Taiwanese voters. Since Mr Xi took power in 2012 they have watched him chip away at Hong Kong’s freedoms and send warplanes on intimidating forays around Taiwan. Few of them want their rich, democratic island to be swallowed up by the dictatorship next door, even if many of them have thousands of years of shared culture with mainlanders. Tibet and Xinjiang are quiet, but only because people there have been terrorised into silence. After widespread outbreaks of unrest a decade ago, repression has grown overwhelming. In the past couple of years Xinjiang’s regional government has built a network of prison camps and incarcerated about 1m people, mostly ethnic Uighurs, often simply for being devout Muslims. Official Chinese documents recently leaked to the New York Times have confirmed the horrors unleashed there (see article). Officials say this “vocational training”, as they chillingly describe it, is necessary to eradicate Islamist extremism. In the long run it is more likely to fuel rage that will one day explode. The slogan in Hong Kong has another part: “Today’s Xinjiang, tomorrow’s Hong Kong”. Few expect such a grim outcome for the former British colony. But Hong Kongers are right to view the party with fear. Even if Mr Xi decides not to use troops in Hong Kong, his view of challenges to the party’s authority is clear. He thinks they should be crushed. This week America’s Congress passed a bill, nearly unanimously, requiring the government to apply sanctions to officials guilty of abusing human rights in Hong Kong. Nonetheless, China is likely to lean harder on Hong Kong’s government, to explore whether it can pass a harsh new anti-sedition law, and to require students to submit to “patriotic education” (ie, party propaganda). The party wants to know the names of those who defy it, the better to make their lives miserable later. Mr Xi says he wants China to achieve its great rejuvenation by 2049, the 100th anniversary of Mao’s victory. By then, he says, the country will be “strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful”. More likely, if the party remains in power that long, Mao’s unfinished business will remain a terrible sore. Millions of people living in the outlying regions that Mao claimed for the party will be seething. Not all the Communist elite agree with Mr Xi’s clenched-fist approach, which is presumably why someone leaked the Xinjiang papers. Trouble in the periphery of an empire can swiftly spread to the centre. This is doubly likely when the peripheries are also where the empire rubs up against suspicious neighbours. India is wary of China’s militarisation of Tibet. China’s neighbours anxiously watch the country’s military build-up in the Taiwan Strait. A big fear is that an attack on the island could trigger war between China and America. The party cannot win lasting assent to its rule by force alone. In Hong Kong “one country, two systems” is officially due to expire in 2047. On current form its system is likely to be much like the rest of China’s long before then. That is why Hong Kong’s protesters are so desperate, and why the harmony Mr Xi talks so blithely of creating in China will elude him.
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05-MAR-2018 :: China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang Law & Politics |
Dissent is measured and snuffed out very quickly in China. China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang where a combination of data from video surveillance, face and license plate recognition, mobile device locations, and official records to identify targets for detention. Xinjiang is surely a precursor for how the CCCP will manage dissent. The actions in Xinjiang are part of the regional authorities’ ongoing “strike-hard” campaign, and of Xi’s “stability maintenance” and “enduring peace” drive in the region. Authorities say the campaign targets “terrorist elements,” but it is in practice far broader, and encompasses anyone suspected of political disloyalty.
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"This is a fictional narrative that has been perpetrated and propagated by the Russian security services themselves." Law & Politics |
They contend that Ukraine was complicit in the 2016 hacking of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and that computer records were fabricated to cast blame on Russia. A key talking point is CrowdStrike, a security firm hired by the DNC that detected the hack. But Hill, the co-author of the book Mr Putin: Operative in the Kremlin, warned in forensic and measured terms that such rumour-mongering only empowers the Russian president who, as intelligence agencies and Congress concluded, systematically attacked America’s democratic institutions in 2016 and is already plotting do so again next year. “The impact of the successful 2016 Russian campaign remains evident today,” she said, wearing black and speaking in an accent from north-east England. “Our nation is being torn apart. Truth is questioned. Our highly professional and expert career foreign service is being undermined. US support for Ukraine – which continues to face armed Russian aggression – has been politicised.” She added: “Right now, Russia’s security services and their proxies have geared up to repeat their interference in the 2020 election. We are running out of time to stop them. In the course of this investigation, I would ask that you please not promote politically driven falsehoods that so clearly advance Russian interests.” Doubts over the legitimacy of a US election result, she said, are “exactly what the Russian government was hoping for. They would pit one side of our electorate against the others.”
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05-DEC-2016:: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk." "We copy. There's a voice." "We have gross oscillation here." Law & Politics |
However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital. Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short stories: The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”. He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at Colorado Command: “We have a deviate, Tomahawk.” “We copy. There’s a voice.” “We have gross oscillation here.” “There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s helping.” “We are clearing an outframe to locate source.” “Thank you, Colorado.” “It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the step-function quad.” “It was a voice,” I told them. “We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.” The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”. “Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60 years ago.” I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support. Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb — were devastating and terminal. The first thing is plausible deniability (and some folks here at home need to remember those words). The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way. Beppe Grillo, the comic turned leader of the Five Star movement in Italy said: This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the intellectuals, of the journalists.” He is right, traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents can broadcast live and over the top. From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy. Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are his information victims.
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Iran's Protests Are Grassroots, Not Foreign-Driven, And That's The Real Problem @OneWorldGTT @AKorybko Law & Politics |
Although the US is most directly responsible for Iran's economic woes over the past few years, the "politically inconvenient" fact of the matter is that its sanctions policy has indeed succeeded in creating the conditions whereby people naturally take to the streets in protest from time to time (and especially after so-called "trigger events" such as the latest fuel price hike), after which they function (whether knowingly or unwittingly) as de-facto "human shields" for provocateurs to hide behind when carrying out their attacks against the state. So long as they have a critical mass of people to "protect" them, the security forces will be reluctant to kinetically respond to the provocateurs out of fear of causing "collateral damage".
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The Lebanese Color Revolution Is A Defining Moment For The Resistance @OneWorldGTT @AKorybko Law & Politics |
What originally began as an expression of legitimate outrage at the Mideast country's dysfunctional government and endemic corruption quickly transformed into a Color Revolution aimed at carrying out regime change in Lebanon through the removal of Hezbollah from its government, the threat of which makes this a defining moment for the Resistance because its supporters' loyalty is being tested to the core. Lebanon is undoubtedly in the throes of an ongoing Color Revolution that's already succeeded in securing the resignation of Prime Minister Hariri in response to large-scale protests against the Mideast country's dysfunctional government and endemic corruption, sparked as they were by a proposed tax on WhatsApp calls that served as the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. The unrest has been condemned by two key members of the Resistance, Ayatollah Khamenei and Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, who warned against the participants becoming useful idiots in the US, "Israel", and the GCC's plot against their homeland. The first-mentioned tweeted that "I recommend those who care in #Iraq and #Lebanon remedy the insecurity and turmoil created in their countries by the U.S., the Zionist regime, some western countries, and the money of some reactionary countries. The people have justifiable demands, but they should know their demands can only be fulfilled within the legal structure and framework of their country. When the legal structure is disrupted in a country, no action can be carried out", while the second urged his supporters to stay away from the scene of the disturbances and emphasized how much the government's fall could destabilize their fragile country. . It shouldn't be forgotten that US Secretary of State Pompeo ominously hinted at an ultimatum being made to Lebanon during his visit there in March when he thundered that "Lebanon faces a choice; bravely move forward as an independent and proud nation or allow the dark ambitions of Iran and Hezbollah to dictate your future", which strongly suggests that the US at the very least tacitly has a hand in guiding developments to that There's no question at this point that legitimate anti-corruption protests have been hijacked for regime change ends aimed at removing Resistance forces from power in those countries, especially since both the Ayatollah and Nasrallah touched upon this in their recent statements on this topic, though there are still those who outwardly profess to support the Resistance's broader mission but refuse to stop participating in the unrest there. aforementioned end
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The wave of protests shaking the world resembles a global uprising against neoliberalism. @MiddleEastEye Law & Politics |
The protests in Iraq and Lebanon, while domestic in origin, could yet have dire geopolitical consequences in the framework of an enduring confrontation between the so-called "Arab NATO" and "the Axis of Resistance" led by Iran and comprising Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, which is shaping regional dynamics. There is little doubt that the protests in these two countries have spontaneous origins, triggered by the local elites’ catastrophic governance. They have not been able to fulfil the most basic needs of the vast majority of the population, who have grown exhausted by the absence of basic services - such as water, electricity and job opportunities - and by open, and outrageous, forms of corruption. Behind such legitimate and genuine protests, however, there could also be a hidden agenda, aimed at manipulating public rage to score political points. It is no secret that the current political structure in Iraq centres on a political majority based largely on Shia-inspired parties sensitive to neighbouring Iran, while in Lebanon, pro-Iranian Hezbollah is a major power broker. This represents a thorn in the side of the US, Israel and the Arab countries affiliated with them (Arab NATO). The Axis of Resistance has systematically opposed the Pax Americana in the the Middle East. There is no conclusive evidence to sustain such claims, but there has been a great deal of media spinning in an attempt to portray these protests as an anti-Iranian, anti-Hezbollah revolt especially in Saudi-funded media outlets. Yet, if some die-hard armchair warrior in Arab NATO is thinking they will profit from such mistakes and failures by attempting to shift the region’s political dynamics, they may be on the verge of yet another fatal miscalculation, confirming an inability to learn from previous mistakes. If a new civil war is ignited in Iraq or Lebanon, in the end, after a bloodbath, only the more resilient and determined groups will prevail - and these might well be the members of the Axis of Resistance. No US, European or Arab troops would be deployed on the ground to take sides. Air strikes and drones would not work. Pursuing hybrid warfare through additional financial sanctions would only lead to collapse in Lebanon; in Iraq, it would further increase the Iranian, Russian and Chinese presence in the country. If an implosion with catastrophic consequences should occur, the Lebanese population affiliated with, or sympathetic to, Hezbollah - unlike their more affluent compatriots of other political or confessional groups - would have nowhere to go; they would fight and resist until the bitter end. The same goes for many Iraqi Shia.
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13-AUG-2019 :: The Feedback Loop Phenomenon Emerging Markets |
China has exerted the power of pull over a vast swathe of the world over the last two decades. We can call it the China, Asia, EM and Frontier markets feedback loop. This feedback loop has been largely a positive one for the last two decades. With the Yuan now in retreat [and in a precise response to Trump], this will surely exert serious downside pressure on those countries in the Feed- back Loop. The Purest Proxy for the China, Asia, EM and Frontier markets feedback loop phenomenon is the South African Rand aka the ZAR.
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Angola raises $3bn from yield-starved bond investors @FinancialTimes Africa |
Angola has raised $3bn from its first bond sale since securing an IMF support package last year, in the latest demonstration that investors’ hunger for higher-yielding debt has spread into frontier markets. The oil-rich African country, which has a debt pile that is close to 100 per cent of its GDP, attracted more than $8bn of orders for the 10- and 30-year debt. Buyers were drawn in by the chunky yields on offer — 8 per cent and 9.125 per cent respectively — and tentative signs that president João Lourenço’s economic turnround programme was bearing fruit. Since taking over in 2017, Mr Lourenço has vowed to wean the country off its dependence on oil revenues while tackling the rampant corruption that set in under his predecessor José Eduardo dos Santos, who led Angola for 38 years. “There has been a genuine change in Angola — a clear-out of the old guard and a more professional approach to running the public finances,” said Kieran Curtis, a fund manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments who bought bonds in the sale. “It’s not an uncontroversial story because the debt stock is so high, but the yield is very attractive,” added Mr Curtis. Maryam Khosrowshahi, a senior debt banker at Deutsche Bank, one of the banks that arranged the sale, said: “Angola came to market at a good time, when benchmark yields are still so low.” Rock-bottom interest rates in developed economies have made it relatively easy for so-called frontier markets such as Angola to raise cash, prompting the IMF to warn of a “borrowing binge”. Debt issuance by frontier economies — a grouping of lower-rated emerging nations that typically lure investors by paying higher yields — is on course to equal 2017’s record of $38bn. “There can be too much of a good thing,” the IMF said earlier this week. “Countries that don’t put the money to good use may have trouble servicing their loans and find themselves at risk of default.” Angola’s bond sale, its first this year, comes amid pressure to open up its economy after signing a $3.7bn credit facility with the IMF in December, the biggest ever such arrangement made by an African country. The country’s currency, the kwanza, has plunged since it was allowed to float freely last month, and is down roughly a third against the dollar this year. Sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest economy is struggling with dwindling output from its oilfields, which account for roughly 95 per cent of foreign revenue. “Their focus has been to diversify, but this is still an oil economy,” said Ms Khosrowshahi. Substantial dollar-denominated oil income is a comfort to bond investors who worry less about a mismatch between the government’s revenues and liabilities, she added. The proceeds of Tuesday’s sale will help the country make repayments on local-currency debt and bilateral loans from China that paid for a reconstruction boom after the end of Angola’s civil war in 2002. Over the longer term, investors are betting that an economic rebound after a four-year recession will help reduce overall debt levels. Mr Curtis said: “The oil sector generates enough money to pay debt which falls due for the next couple of years, then in a few years there’s potentially a better growth story.”
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Letter from Africa: Zimbabwe, the land where cash barons thrive BBC Africa |
In our series of letters from African writers, journalist-turned-barrister Brian Hungwe says the need for cash has not been eased by the release of new Zimbabwean dollar notes over the last week. In Zimbabwe, cash is king. You need notes in your hand to avoid paying a premium for goods. This has come about because of a chronic shortage of physical cash - which has led to a three-tier pricing model. For example, if you go into a supermarket to buy a 15 Zimbabwean dollar loaf of bread, you can pay: Z$15 in cash Z$18 in mobile money Z$20 by debit card. You also need cash to pay for bus fares - electronic transactions are not accepted on public transport - and road-side vendors or some small grocery shops only take cash.
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Egyptian Tourism Revenue Surges to a Record @business Africa |
Tourism, which makes up about 15% of Egypt’s economy, was badly shaken by the 2011 uprising and further battered by a series of attacks targeting tourists, including the downing of a Russian jetliner in the Sinai about four years later. As security has improved, tourists have returned; the U.K. in October lifted its advisory against commercial airlines flying to the Sinai’s major resort. Earnings were over $12.5 billion in the 2018-19 fiscal year, “the highest tourism revenue in Egypt’s history” and a validation of authorities’ new, stricter standards for accommodation and global promotion efforts, Tourism Minister Rania Al-Mashat said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg TV in Beijing. The North African country is also developing options beyond “cultural heritage or sun and sea,” according to Al-Mashat. “Today’s travelers are looking for experience, they’re looking for diversity of offer and they’re looking for being part of the local community,” she said, citing the potential of the Red Sea Mountain Trail, a 170-kilometer (106 miles) trekking route near the resort of Hurghada. “By December 2019, we will have reached the peak of 2010 in terms of tourist numbers,” Al-Mashtat said. The opening of the much-touted “billion-dollar” Grand Egyptian Museum near the pyramids of Giza that’s slated for next year will also be a major draw, she said.
Conclusions
Egypt is properly an investors Darling.
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A former president's crocodiles are terrorising Ivory Coast's capital @TheEconomist Africa |
Once they guarded his palace. Now they prey on pedestrians The first president of Ivory Coast, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, liked to build monuments to himself. After independence he erected a new political capital on top of his remote home village, Yamoussoukro. No expense was spared. He equipped the city with a Concorde runway, West Africa’s first ice-skating rink, the largest basilica in the world and a grand palace, surrounded by an artificial lake filled with crocodiles. Since the president’s death in 1993 officials have preferred to work in the commercial capital, Abidjan, leaving the political capital to fall into disrepair. But potholed roads and broken streetlights are not the only problems locals face. The president’s pets have escaped into the city’s waterways, and reproduced. “There has been no policy for the crocodiles. If you go near the water, they will eat you,” frets Souaga Gérard, a teacher. The crocodiles were gifts from Moussa Traoré, the brutal dictator of next-door Mali. “It was a sort of ‘This is how I deal with my enemies’ gesture,” says a Western diplomat. For more than three decades they were looked after by a wiry keeper, Dicko Toki. He gave them names like “Capitaine” and “Chef de Cabinet” and kept them in check with a blunt machete. In 2012, however, Mr Toki was allegedly dragged out into the lake by Chef de Cabinet, never to be seen again. In the wild, crocodiles can get by with only the occasional meal. The oxen that the presidency buys to feed them every month ought to be enough to satisfy even the hungriest of them. Alas, irresponsible tourists have developed the habit of paying locals good money (around $5 a chomp) to see them gobble down live chickens. This rich diet has allowed the animals to grow and multiply. There were about 20 originally, but no one knows how many there are now—or how many people they have killed. “It is particularly dangerous in the rainy season when there are floods,” says Mr Gérard. In most cities in Africa hardly anyone would shed a tear at the removal of cold-blooded killers, or their conversion into stylish handbags. But Yamoussoukro’s crocs have a sacred aura, thanks to the big man to whom they once belonged. Some say anyone who does them harm will be cursed. So when they come out of the water looking for a snack, the palace guards do not shoot them. Instead, firemen are called to put them gingerly back.■
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"The Crocodiles of Yamoussoukro," VS Naipaul Africa |
Here, Naipaul investigates the crocodiles that the President of the Ivory Coast keeps at his tribal village, Yamoussoukro, which has been made a monument of modernity as a testament to Ivory Coast's development. Daily, they are thrown a live chicken to eat in front of an audience. Naipaul talks to people about other strange happenings and then puts the events side by side to see if they shed light on one another. But his questions keep leading to the ''world of night, the world of darkness ,'' as one African calls it, the world of animistic belief and supposed supernatural powers. Many of the people he talks to are foreigners who have chosen to live here and who love it, like the woman from Martinique who says that ''life is so big'' with the addition of this ''other world.'' Yet poking through the satisfaction and ''wholeness'' these people say they feel are the grisly little details he keeps wondering about. In the Ivory Coast, the servants of a chief are still buried with him, Naipaul is told. If they run away at his death, children are sacrificed instead. Someone tells him that, when the newspaper reports a child's disappearance, that child has been sacrificed. The newspaper describes a house that mysteriously keeps catching on fire, and attributes this phenomenon to evil spirits. He is told of the power of some Africans to turn themselves into ''pure energy,'' to travel instantaneously to Paris, say, and bring back news. In ''the world of night,'' with their supernatural powers, Africans have everything Europeans have brought about with technology, he is told.
Kenya
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Cash Crunch Pushes Kenya to Edge With Curb in Job Creation @economics @herbling and @eombok Africa |
Kenya’s bid to bolster its Treasury and ease a cash crunch may instead hit East Africa’s largest economy with a slowdown in job creation. The central government and county authorities were yet to pay suppliers and contractors at least 172 billion shillings ($1.7 billion) as of June, with amounts due from national ministries, departments and agencies almost double from a year earlier. Additionally, business cash-flows are suffering from the state providing only about half of the money required for tax refunds every month. “This has led to negative impact on the economy, including less than optimal levels of employment and escalation of poverty,” acting Treasury Secretary Ukur Yatani said from the capital, Nairobi. “Cases of individuals and firms experiencing unmet financial obligations including failure to repay loans are widespread.” The World Bank in October said Kenya’s unemployment rate was around 11.4%, compared with the government’s 2015-16 estimate of 7.4%. Kenya’s economic expansion will probably slow to 5.8% this year from 6.3% in 2018, according to the World Bank, missing growth-targets for the fourth time in five years. That’s partly because under-performing revenue is making it difficult to fund President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Big Four Agenda aimed at boosting manufacturing, health care, housing and farming and help create one million jobs annually. The difficulty in paying suppliers and settling tax refunds reflects a cash shortage that fiscal authorities are struggling to manage with measures that include asking state companies to remit earnings and increasing state borrowing limits. “Private-sector activity, which is the main employer, has slowed remarkably,” said Faith Atiti, a senior economist at Nairobi-based NCBA Bank Kenya Ltd. “Fixed-capital formation in the area has literally stunted if not contracted.” The National Treasury directed all state companies to remit earnings, which they previously retained and spent partly on developing assets and buying government securities. Yatani wants that money back to bolster funding for priority projects. He expects to receive 78.7 billion shillings from the corporations this fiscal year. Lawmakers approved legislation Wednesday that requires the national and county governments to hold accounts with the central bank, from where payments will be made. They are preparing additional legislation demanding the same of ministries, departments and state companies. Last week, the Treasury proposed an almost 3% increase in the 2019-20 spending plans to 3.13 trillion shillings to continue investing in Kenyatta’s priority projects. Authorities consequently raised the period’s budget-gap forecast to 6.3% of gross domestic product to take into account additional borrowing and lower revenue. Yatani told lawmakers on Nov. 19 that the Treasury cut this fiscal year’s tax-collection target by 108.7 billion shillings. Kenya will spend 696.6 billion shillings, equivalent to 39% of the revenue target, on servicing debt in the year through June. In October, the Treasury set a new debt limit of 9 trillion shillings, effectively increasing room for more borrowing to help plug the budget gap. This week, the Treasury announced additional measures to increase borrowing on concessional terms after a foray into pricier Eurobonds and syndicated loans took it closer to debt distress. The International Monetary Fund estimates Kenya’s debt this year at almost 60% of gross domestic product.
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