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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 01st of July 2020

24-FEB-2020 :: a “V- shaped” recovery #COVID19 [is a FANTASY]
World Of Finance

US Interest rates out to 10 Years will be negative by December if not before

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Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 11 There is no remembrance of former things,[c] nor will there be any remembrance of later things[d] yet to be among those who come after.

Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher,

vanity of vanities! All is vanity.

3 What does man gain by all the toil

at which he toils under the sun?

4 A generation goes, and a generation comes,

but the earth remains forever.

5 The sun rises, and the sun goes down,

and hastens[b] to the place where it rises.

6 The wind blows to the south

and goes around to the north;

around and around goes the wind,

and on its circuits the wind returns.

7 All streams run to the sea,

but the sea is not full;

to the place where the streams flow,

there they flow again.

8 All things are full of weariness;

a man cannot utter it;

the eye is not satisfied with seeing,

nor the ear filled with hearing.

9 What has been is what will be,

and what has been done is what will be done,

and there is nothing new under the sun.

10 Is there a thing of which it is said,

“See, this is new”?

It has been already

in the ages before us.

11 There is no remembrance of former things,[c]

nor will there be any remembrance

of later things[d] yet to be

among those who come after.

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Journalist Misses His Deadline on Manson Article. By 20 Years. @nytimes

The Manson family murder spree of 1969 claimed seven victims, most famously Sharon Tate, the Hollywood flower child whose tragic story is told yet again in Quentin Tarantino’s new film, “Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood.”Along the way, he came to doubt the accepted narrative of the case as presented by “Helter Skelter,” the 1974 book by Vincent Bugliosi, the lead prosecutor in the case, that Charles Manson was deluded by messianic visions and ordered his drug-addled minions to slaughter rich Los Angeles denizens to spur an apocalyptic race war.

It may sound like a crazy conspiracy theory, but I discovered a lot of evidence that right after Manson was released from prison in 1967, he was spending a lot of time in the same medical clinic in San Francisco where it has been documented that a C.I.A. employee was recruiting subjects for studies of LSD and its ability to influence human behavior.

Coincidental or not, Manson suddenly transformed from a harmless little ex-con who nobody ever gave a second glance, to an all-powerful guru surrounded by a harem of women who would do anything he asked, including kill complete strangers.

O.K., Manson as a Manchurian candidate. That’s pretty crazy.

I had never believed in conspiracies. But it is a documented fact that the C.I.A. had a program called Chaos, and the F.B.I. had one called Cointelpro. 

He was making sense, speaking in complete sentences. He sounded like he could have been a paralegal. Just hearing that tape showed that everything he did, with me at least, was an act.You see how Margot Robbie plays her in the trailers for the Tarantino movie, and that’s exactly how she was described to me: She was like this beam of light, that was all innocence and beauty and sweetness.

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I do not think people fully comprehend yet what exponential growth entails. @Marco_Piani

This is the same exponential function, from 0 to 5, starting at a min of 1 & reaching a max of ~150, and from 0 to 10 (double the range), reaching ~22,000

It does not stay small. We *make it* stay small.

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U.S. coronavirus cases rise by 47,000, biggest one-day spike of pandemic Reuters

“Clearly we are not in total control right now,” Dr. Anthony Fauci

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This crisis has the capacity to be apocalyptic @EngelsbergIdeas @peterfrankopan
Law & Politics

The pandemic had a silver lining, he remarked. ‘Great advances in history have come after great catastrophes.’

He may well be right. The pandemic has led to many transformations already – from the way we communicate with each other, cope with lockdowns and queue when (and if) we shop. The world is changing in front of our eyes.

Office life may never be the same again, with Barclays Chief Executive Jes Staley pondering whether ‘putting seven thousand people in a building may be a thing of the past.’ 

After many false dawns, education may now move decisively to online learning. 

Fashions may change decisively, with face masks becoming as common in Britain as they are in some parts of Asia even after the crisis has passed: Chanel, Burberry and Louis Vuitton have moved quickly into helping design masks and gowns for healthcare workers – presaging the fact that more stylish versions could become a staple on fashion show runways and the new ‘must have’ item in new collections.

But one of the most striking trends that has emerged during the pandemic is the pressure that freedoms are being put under all around the world. 

In some cases, this has led to extensive repressive measures. The pandemic saw newspapers shut down in the Middle East, social media controls enhanced in Turkey and fines and even hefty prison sentences threatened in China, Russia as well as in several other countries for sharing gossip, rumours and fake news about the coronavirus.

More than eighty countries declared a state of emergency as a result of the virus, according to the Centre for Civil and Political Rights

In some cases this resulted in impassioned debate about the erosion of civil liberties, for example in Israel, where the government approved a controversial measure in March to digitally track those who had tested positive for coronavirus.

Police releasing drone footage of walkers in the Peak District, officers reprimanding people for using their own front garden, or Thames Valley police issuing appeals for local residents to inform on each other if they suspect they are ‘gathering and then dispersing back into out communities’ during the lockdown show that the relationship between citizens and the authorities has changed dramatically in a matter of a few weeks. 

The new mantra of our pandemic and post-pandemic world is best expressed by Thailand’s Prime Minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha – a general who himself took power in a coup in 2014: ‘right now it’s health over liberty.’

The push away from democratic norms to autocratic measures is framed by the justification that the crisis is so severe as to require emergency measures that usually reflect a war footing

So it is no surprise that so many leaders around the world have referred to the coronavirus as a ‘war’, nor that wartime parallels are the ones we turn to in order to make sense of the situation: 

it is no coincidence either that the death toll from the Vietnam War contextualised mortality figures from the US, or that those of the height of the Blitz in the twenty eight days to 4 October 1940 were set against those to Covid-19 in the four weeks to mid-April.

The sheer scale and extent of the problems that the pandemic has brought individual countries and the global economy more generally go some way to justifying the search for such dramatic analogies: employment figures released in May showed that almost 40 million Americans lost their jobs in just eight weeks. 

When taking account of those aged 18-65 who are students, homemakers, sick or retired – who make up around a third of the workforce in the US – this meant that over half of the working age population of the richest country on earth were heading into the summer not earning a wage.

The answer, he argued, was that we must ‘dare to be wise.’ 

This seems to be a very fitting motto as we ponder what lies ahead of us today; and I suspect that states which are fortunate to be ruled by leaders who are both wise and brave will emerge better off in the short and the long term. 

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
World Of Finance

“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

What is clear is that the #COVID19 was bio-engineered

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1226

Dollar Index 97.355

Japan Yen 107.64

Swiss Franc 0.9472

Pound 1.2387

Aussie 0.6908

India Rupee 75.59

South Korea Won 1202.76

Brazil Real 5.4634

Egypt Pound 16.14

South Africa Rand 17.3153

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4-day growth index : @oli3be
World Of Finance

#Panama 19%

#Kyrgyzstan 17%

#SouthAfrica 15%

#Bahrain 11%

#Chile 11%

#Armenia 10%

#Oman 9%

#Brazil 9%

#ElSalvador 8%

#SaudiArabia 8%

#Colombia 8%

#Bolivia 8%

#US 7%

#Iraq 7%

#Qatar 6%

#Kazakhstan 6%

#Venezuela 6%

#Peru 6%

#Israel 6%

#Yemen 5%

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10-MAY-2020 :: #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
World Of Finance

We are witnessing a Spill Over into EM and Frontier Geographies

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Emerging-Market Carry Trades Risk More Losses After Decade of Gains Wiped Out @markets
Emerging Markets

An index that measures returns from borrowing in dollars and investing in eight high-yielding emerging currencies including the Brazilian real and the Indonesian rupiah slumped 16% from the start of the year to touch a more than 10-year low in April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

The gauge trimmed some losses through May, but the recovery has now stalled, leaving it down 11% for the year.

One of the major factors that deters investors from engaging in carry trades is high volatility -- and the situation here also appears discouraging.

Implied volatility is higher for one-month options than three-month contracts for currencies such as the Brazilian real, Mexican peso, and Indonesian rupiah, suggesting markets see inflated near-term risk, according to Bank of America.

“A number of implied volatility curves in EM FX are still inverted, which suggests EM currencies are still unanchored and vulnerable,” said Claudio Piron, co-head of Asia foreign-exchange and rates strategy at Bank of America in Singapore. 

While the worst of this year’s sell-off in EM carry trades may be behind us, “don’t expect a dramatic rally,” he said.

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“The coronavirus shock compounds a marked deterioration in SSA public finances that has been running for a decade and which will be challenging to reverse'' @FitchRatings

Government debt burdens across sub-Saharan Africa are rising at a faster pace and to higher levels than elsewhere in emerging markets, heightening the risk of further rating downgrades and defaults, ratings agency Fitch warned on Tuesday.

Fitch predicted that the median of government debt-to-GDP for the 19 sovereigns it rated in the region would rise to 71% by end-2020 from 26% in 2012, while the median debt ratio across other emerging markets is expected to climb to 57%.

Africa’s main oil exporters – Angola, the Republic of Congo, Gabon and Nigeria – have been hit particularly hard given their high reliance on oil revenues for fiscal and external financing, and the dependence of the rest of their economies on crude earnings.

Countries with a concentration on tourism, particularly Cabo Verde and the Seychelles, have also been badly affected, Fitch said.

While Mozambique and Republic of Congo already defaulted recently, ratings pointed to more stress ahead, with Zambia at ‘CC’ and Gabon, Mozambique and Republic of Congo ‘CCC’.

Another 13 sovereigns were in the single ‘B’ range, with seven sovereigns having a ‘negative’ outlook on their rating.

''The coronavirus shock compounds a marked deterioration in SSA public finances that has been running for a decade and which will be challenging to reverse,” Ed Parker, managing director sovereign ratings EMEA, wrote in a report.

“Further sovereign defaults are probable,” he added.

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30 June, marks the 60th anniversary of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s independence from #Belgium. @RFI_En
Law & Politics

The Belgian #KingPhilippe has expressed his #regrets’ over his nation’s colonial past.

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BREAKING: Oromo artist & singer Hachalu Hundessa was shot dead last night. Gunfire can be heard throughout the capital, #Ethiopia security forces shut-down internet, arrest journalists, Situation tense. @MoradNews
Law & Politics

BREAKING: Mass protest taken place in #Ethiopia capital #AddisAbaba after popular Oromo artist & singer Hachalu Hundessa was shot dead last night. Gunfire can be heard throughout the capital, #Ethiopia security forces shut-down internet, arrest journalists, Situation tense.

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A mystery killing of an Oromo icon is the worst that could happen in current climate in Ethiopia. @RAbdiCG
Law & Politics

A large-scale Oromo backlash will almost certainly topple PM Abiy, already bleeding support in Oromo heartland. BRACE.

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Protests Erupt in Ethiopia After Popular Musician Killed @bpolitics @Habesh_
Law & Politics

Protests erupted in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, and other parts of the country after a prominent musician of the Oromo ethnic group was shot dead.

Haacaalu Hundeessa died Monday in an attack by unidentified gunmen in Addis Ababa, Getu Argaw, the city’s police commissioner said on state-owned Ethiopian Broadcasting Corp. 

The singer and songwriter was a popular voice in protests by the Oromo, Ethiopia’s biggest ethnic group, for reforms in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front that led to the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018.

“We have lost a precious life,” Abiy said in a statement on his official Facebook page. “We are aware of the magnitude of this action and are paying attention to the activities in the country. Let’s express our grief by protecting ourselves and preventing any further crime.”

The protesters that marched through Addis Ababa were mainly young people grieving the dead musician. Protests were also reported elsewhere in the Oromia region.

The authorities shut down the Internet to curb the protests from spreading, Berhan Taye of the New York-based digital-rights advocacy group Access Now said by phone from the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. Internet access was cut starting 6 a.m. on Tuesday, she said

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Uprising in #Ethiopia! Government shuts down Internet. Police in battles in many districts. I mentioned in the last few days, the situation is very unstable @adeladawy
Law & Politics

Uprising in #Ethiopia! Government shuts down Internet. Police in battles in many districts. I mentioned in the last few days, the situation is very unstable with  @AbiyAhmedAli being politically weak & military cohesion at an all time low. At least Ethiopians cannot troll me now!

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Ethiopia to Set Up Regulator for First Stock Exchange This Year @markets
Law & Politics

Ethiopia has drafted a bill to create a stock market authority that will come into effect before the end of the year, according to the Ministry of Finance.

Ethiopia is among the biggest five economies in sub-Saharan Africa and the second-largest by population, but doesn’t have a stock market. 

Since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, the country has pursued economic reforms, including opening up formerly closed-off sectors such as telecommunications.

“As we are at a stage where a vibrant private sector is starting to emerge, we have companies that are ready to be listed in the stock exchange,” Eyob Tekalign, the state minister for finance, said in an emailed response to questions. 

“We are on a good track to commence the implementation.”

The ministry is working on building the infrastructure and human skills needed to introduce a stock market, he said.

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent

The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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LAST 14-DAYS National Update: Daily Tests Positive Hit Rate @Slipcatch

1. New Daily COVID-19 Cases

2. New Daily Recoveries

3. New Daily Deaths

4. Daily Tests Positive Hit Rate

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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Zimbabwe's Security Forces Sideline Government as Economy Crashes @economics
Law & Politics

Zimbabwe’s security force leaders sidelined the nation’s economic chiefs and forced the government to issue an order to close the stock exchange and halt most mobile-money transactions, people familiar with the situation said.

The June 26 order came after pressure from the Joint Operations Command and was made without notifying the central bank, which regulates the mobile-money industry through which almost all of Zimbabwe’s commerce takes place, the people said. 

They asked not to be identified because the role of the JOC hasn’t been disclosed publicly.

The measure is further evidence that senior ruling party and military officials are growing impatient with the administration of President Emmerson Mnangagwa. 

Inflation has surged to 786%, the currency has crashed and the country is facing shortages of food and fuel.

The JOC includes officials from the military, police and secret service and is the highest body in terms of coordinating state security, though it doesn’t usually pronounce on economic matters. 

It stepped in after deeming that Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube and central bank Governor John Mangudya failed to take action to address the crisis, one of the people said.

Defense Minister Oppah Muchinguri, who chairs the JOC, wasn’t immediately available for comment, said a person who answered her mobile phone when Bloomberg sought comment. 

The government denied the order came from the JOC.

“The order came from government after taking input from all agencies and departments,” said Nick Mangwana, the government spokesman. 

“Evidence linking the mobile-money platforms to money laundering as well as illegal foreign-exchange trading and money creation had been uncovered.”

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21-JAN-2019 :: The Mind Game that ZANU-PF played on its citizens has evaporated in a puff of smoke
Law & Politics

I have been reading Yuval Noah Harari and in his best-seller he says this about money;

“In other words, money isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works by converting matter into mind.”

The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2020

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