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Friday 31st of January 2020 |
Agua Quemada / Burnt Water by Carlos Fuentes [What a book!] Africa |
“Fuentes's genius is indisputable. He is a fountain of the myths and spiritual past and present of his native Mexico, which he has revealed to us in such novels as The Death of Artemio Cruz, Terra Nostra, and Aura. He does so again in this collection of short stories ... There is a beauty, passion and brilliance here that, even if we had never heard of Mexico, we could not miss.” —Publishers Weekly “As usual, Fuentes is in full command of both form and language, slipping effortlessly from realism to fantasy and from the casual to the profound.” —The Atlantic Monthly “With seven novels already published in translation, this is Fuentes's first book of stories to appear in English. As the Author's Note makes clear, the protagonist of Burnt Water is modern-day Mexico City, its historic charm, its dirt and violence, its deep political and class divisions.” —Library Journal “The wealth of imagination and invention in these stories is simply breathtaking ...” —New Statesman
Political Reflections
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Vow! JARED KUSHNER: PALESTINIANS HAVE NEVER DONE ANYTHING RIGHT IN THEIR SAD, PATHETIC LIVES @VanityFair Law & Politics |
The first son-in-law has warned Palestinians not to “screw up this opportunity” at peace that he’s so graciously given to them. Kushner, ever the real estate agent, gave a speech in which he spoke of transforming the Gaza Strip into a tourist destination, failing to mention Israel and Egypt’s 12-year blockade of the Hamas-controlled territory, in addition to Israel’s 52-year-long occupation of the West Bank, which restricts trade and labor movements. When the Boy Prince of New Jersey touched on politics, it was to offer the savvy take that if everyone just stopped “doing terrorism,” it would “allow for much faster flow of goods and people.” Not surprisingly, the whole thing was panned by experts, one of whom described Kushner’s plan as “the Monty Python sketch of Israeli-Palestinian peace initiatives.” Undeterred, Kushner got on a call with Arab and Israeli reporters and, putting on his salesman cap, explained that his vision was 100% workable if Palestinian leadership would stop being so “hysterical and stupid.” Appearing on CNN, Kushner told Christiane Amanpour that critics of his plan—of which there are a comically huge number—must “divorce [themselves] from all of the history” and focus on the deal he has outlined for them. And speaking of history, Kushner posited that if this whole thing fails, it’s not going to be because a glorified slumlord somehow didn’t get it right but because Palestinians are morons who don’t know what’s good for them. Sayeth Kushner: You have 5 million Palestinians who are really trapped because of bad leadership. So what we’ve done is we’ve created an opportunity for their leadership to either seize or not. If they screw up this opportunity—which, again, they have a perfect track record of missing opportunities—if they screw this up, I think that they will have a very hard time looking the international community in the face, saying they are victims, saying they have rights. This is a great deal for them. If they come to the table and negotiate, I think they can get something excellent.… The Palestinian leadership have to ask themselves a question: Do they want to have a state? Do they want to have a better life? If they do, we have created a framework for them to have it, and we’re going to treat them in a very respectful manner. If they don’t, then they’re going to screw up another opportunity like they’ve screwed up every other opportunity that they’ve ever had in their existence.
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27-JAN-2020 :: #WuhanCoronavirus #nCoV2019 #coronavirus Law & Politics |
President Xi warned The Corona virus is 'accelerating' [and the] country [is] facing 'grave situation'. So who had ‘mutated bat-snake flu’ as their top market risk for 2020? tweeted @tracyalloway. The Precise origins of the Corona virus are yet to be established with Wiley's Journal of Medical Virology saying it may be may be snake-to-human transmission and some even pointing the Finger at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Wuhan bio-safety level four (BSL-4) laboratory and surmising that the only explanation left is artificial DNA modification, possibly by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which since 2007 has collected samples from thousands of bats across the country and done genetic experiments with them. What is clear is that the CCP suppressed information until we reached a Groucho Marx ''Who Ya Gonna Believe, Me or Your Own Eyes'' moment. Epidemiologists speak of Tipping Points. Malcolm Gladwell described the ''Tipping Point'' as the name given to that moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It's the boiling point. It's the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. In an article in 2014 about Ebola I called it the moment of ''escape velocity'' and wrote ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'' The Mathematics is the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0), which represents how many People each person infected with the coronavirus is passing the disease on to. A number of less than 1, means the virus dies out. For a Frame of Reference, the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu is around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu =1.80. The R0 range is somewhere between 2.00-2.6 with Dr. Eric Ding speaking of 3.8 over the weekend. @DrEricDing tweeted the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career [before adjusting his calculations lower to 2.5] Each person infected with coronavirus is passing the disease on to between two and three other people on average at current transmission rates, according to two separate scientific analyses of the epidemic. Ferguson’s team suggest as many as 4,000 people in Wuhan were already infected by Jan. 18 and that on average each case was infecting two or three others. A second study by researchers at Britain’s Lancaster University also calculated the contagion rate at 2.5 new people on average being infected by each person already infected. ''Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict (it) will be substantially larger by Feb. 4,” the scientists wrote. They estimated that the central Chinese city of Wuhan where the outbreak began in December will alone have around 190,000 cases of infection by Feb. 4., and that “infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent.” The Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible” The overarching Point is that whether its 2.5 or 3.8 this is off the charts. The CCP is building hospitals in a record breaking 7 days but who will man them? China has locked down a total of 47m of its Citizens. Given the new hyperconnectedness of the World [For example, did you know there is a daily Ethiopian Flight between Wuhan and Addis Abeba - As of Thursday Ethiopian Airlines, which has multiple daily passenger and cargo flights to China and Africa’s busiest airport hub, said it was waiting for guidance from Ethiopia’s Health Ministry on how to respond], I have to assume that the Corona virus is already in Africa but just not diagnosed. Thats a racing certainty. Paul Virilio wrote ''With every natural disaster, health scare, and malicious rumor now comes the inevitable “information bomb”–live feeds take over real space, and technology connects life to the immediacy of terror, the ultimate expression of speed'' And in his book City of panic he described The city reconstructed through the use mediatized panic. Markets bought Gold and G7 Bonds on Friday as Investors dived into Safe Havens, Next week we could see these moves turn parabolic. “But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’
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Governments are failing in the fight against jihadis in the Sahel @FT @davidpilling Africa |
It must be the least known epicentre of global terrorism. Burkina Faso, a landlocked country in west Africa, is now home to the world’s fastest-growing Islamist insurgency. Only last weekend, suspected militants attacked a market not far from the lightly patrolled border with Mali, killing some 50 people. That was merely the latest in a gruesome string of attacks on targets soft and hard. Thousands of people were killed last year and some 560,000 displaced in a country of 19m. On Christmas Eve, 35 civilians — 31 of them women — were slaughtered when dozens of militants on motorbikes rode into town in Soum province, where last weekend’s attack took place. A few days later, 11 soldiers were killed at a military base, again in Soum. As the crisis escalates, the Norwegian Refugee Council predicts the number of displaced people will rise to 900,000. Burkina Faso borders six countries. Two of them, Niger and especially Mali, are centres of Islamist insurgencies themselves. They are home to a potpourri of homegrown rebellions, foreign fighters linked to al-Qaeda and Isis, criminal gangs and weapons pouring out of Libya. The lure of fundamentalism, with its promise of order, is strong in parts of the country where traces of the state are as wispy as gun smoke. The other four countries — Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo and Benin — are coastal nations that have mostly been spared terrorist attention. That is likely to change. Geography and circumstance have rendered Burkina Faso a potential conduit for a jihadi insurgency that now menaces much of west Africa. The country is the latest battleground in a war that first announced itself in 2012. Then, local Tuareg rebels joined forces with al-Qaeda affiliated foreign fighters. They quickly took over much of northern Mali, imposing a sharia regime in a region previously known for tolerance, music and ancient learning centred on Timbuktu. It took a 2013 invasion by French forces wielding formidable air power to dislodge them. Operation Serval, as it was called, was a swift success. As so often in military interventions, the follow-up has been less impressive. The French, rightly, had no plans for nation building. Unfortunately, it seems, neither did the Malian government. The Islamist threat has since metastasised. In Mali, central towns such as Mopti and Gao are in effect beyond government influence. Fighting has spread to Niger and Burkina Faso. The region has drawn fighters fleeing the crumbled caliphate in Syria and Iraq. On paper, the response is joined up. On the ground, it has been piecemeal. The so-called G5 group of five Sahelian countries — Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger — has formed a combined force to battle the insurgency. Signs of strain are everywhere. Too often, government troops — poorly trained, poorly equipped and poorly paid — commit their own atrocities, stoking further resentment. The title of a Human Rights Watch report on Burkina Faso — “During the day, we are afraid of the army, and at night of the jihadis” — tells you much of what you need to know. The western response is almost as shaky. France has 4,500 troops in Mali under the umbrella of Operation Barkhane. The US has several hundred personnel and two drone bases in Niger. But nerves are jangling. Last month, Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, angered by anti-French sentiment — some of it coming from government officials themselves — threatened to draw down his troops. He is right. Regional governments need to back the French or sack them. They cannot have it both ways. In the end, Mr Macron agreed to bolster the French presence with 220 extra troops. Coalition forces will, at least in theory, be under joint French-G5 command. Mr Macron has urged the US not to quit, as has been floated, calling its presence “irreplaceable”. Irreplaceable or not, a military response alone is not enough. Mishandled, it could be counterproductive. Insecurity loves an institutional vacuum. In much of the Sahel, that is precisely what the insurgents have found. The most urgent need is for a functioning state. That means spreading the public goods — schools, healthcare, infrastructure, economic opportunity and security — that are the gift of good governance. While this is primarily the responsibility of national governments, they are mostly failing in their task. They urgently need to build a social contract between themselves and those in whose names they govern. If outsiders can help in that cause, that is where their priority should lie. Military intervention is no long-term solution. Judging by the recent escalation in violence, it may not even be a short-term one.
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Prowling Lions and Corrupt Officials Block Roads to Africa Trade @business @markets Africa |
Nyoni Nsukuzimbi drives his 40-ton Freightliner for just over half a day from Johannesburg to the Beitbridge border post with Zimbabwe. At the frontier town—little more than a gas station and a KFC—he sits in a line for two to three days, in temperatures reaching 104F, waiting for his documents to be processed. That’s only the start of a journey Nsukuzimbi makes maybe twice a month. Driving 550 miles farther north gets him to the Chirundu border post on the Zambian frontier. There, starting at a bridge across the Zambezi River, trucks snake back miles into the bush. “There’s no water, there’s no toilets, there are lions,” says the 40-year-old Zimbabwean. He leans out of the Freightliner’s cab over the hot asphalt, wearing a white T-shirt and a weary expression. “It’s terrible.” By the time he gets his load of tiny plastic beads—the kind used in many manufacturing processes—to a factory on the outskirts of Zambia’s capital, Lusaka, he’s been on the road for as many as 10 days to traverse just 1,000 miles. Nsukuzimbi’s trials are typical of truck drivers across Africa, where border bureaucracy, corrupt officials seeking bribes, and a myriad of regulations that vary from country to country have stymied attempts to boost intra-African trade. The continent’s leaders say they’re acting to change all that. Fifty-three of its 54 nations have signed up to join the African Continental Free Trade Area; only Eritrea, which rivals North Korea in its isolation from the outside world, hasn’t. The African Union-led agreement is designed to establish the world’s biggest free-trade zone by area, encompassing a combined economy of $2.5 trillion and a market of 1.2 billion people. Agreed in May 2019, the pact is meant to take effect in July and be fully operational by 2030. “The AfCFTA,” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in his Oct. 7 weekly letter to the nation, “will be a game-changer, both for South Africa and the rest of the continent.” It has to be if African economies are ever going to achieve their potential. Africa lags behind other regions in terms of internal trade, with intracontinental commerce accounting for only 15% of total trade, compared with 58% in Asia and more than 70% in Europe. As a result, supermarket shelves in cities such as Luanda, Angola, and Abidjan, Ivory Coast, are lined with goods imported from the countries that once colonized them, Portugal and France. By lowering or eliminating cross-border tariffs on 90% of African-produced goods, the new regulations are supposed to facilitate the movement of capital and people and create a liberalized market for services. “We haven’t seen as much institutional will for a large African Union project before,” says Kobi Annan, an analyst at Songhai Advisory in Ghana. “The time frame is a little ambitious, but we will get there.” President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana and other heads of state joined Ramaphosa in hailing the agreement, but a number of the businesspeople who are supposed to benefit from it are skeptical. “Many of these governments depend on that duty income. I don’t see how that’s ever going to disappear,” says Tertius Carstens, the chief executive officer of Pioneer Foods Group Ltd., a South African maker of fruit juices and cereal that’s being acquired by PepsiCo Inc. for about $1.7 billion. “Politically it sounds good; practically it’s going to be a nightmare to implement, and I expect resistance.” Under the rules, small countries such as Malawi, whose central government gets 7.7% of its revenue from taxes on international trade and transactions, will forgo much-needed income, at least initially. By contrast, relatively industrialized nations like Egypt, Kenya, and South Africa will benefit from the outset. “AfCFTA will require huge trade-offs from political leaders,” says Ronak Gopaldas, a London-based director at Signal Risk, which advises companies in Africa. “They will need to think beyond short-term election cycles and sovereignty in policymaking.” Taking those disparities into account, the AfCFTA may allow poorer countries such as Ethiopia 15 years to comply with the trade regime, whereas South Africa and other more developed nations must do so within five. To further soften the effects on weaker economies, Africa could follow the lead of the European Union, says Axel Pougin de La Maissoneuve, deputy head of the trade and private sector unit in the European Commission’s Directorate General for Development and International Cooperation. The EU adopted a redistribution model to offset potential losses by Greece, Portugal, and other countries. There may be structural impediments to the AfCFTA’s ambitions. Iron ore, oil, and other raw materials headed for markets such as China make up about half of the continent’s exports. “African countries don’t produce the goods that are demanded by consumers and businesses in other African countries,” says Trudi Hartzenberg, executive director of the Tralac Trade Law Center in Stellenbosch, South Africa. Trust and tension over illicit activity are also obstacles. Beginning in August, Nigeria shut its land borders to halt a surge in the smuggling of rice and other foodstuffs. In September, South Africa drew continentwide opprobrium after a recurrence of the anti-immigrant riots that have periodically rocked the nation. This could hinder the AfCFTA’s provisions for the free movement of people. Considering all of these roadblocks, a skeptic would be forgiven for giving the AfCFTA little chance of success. And yet there are already at least eight trade communities up and running on the continent. While these are mostly regional groupings, some countries belong to more than one bloc, creating overlap. The AfCFTA won’t immediately replace these regional blocs; rather, it’s designed to harmonize standards and rules, easing trade between them, and to eventually consolidate the smaller associations under the continentwide agreement. The benefits of the comprehensive agreement are plain to see. It could, for example, limit the sort of unilateral stumbling blocks Pioneer Foods’ Carstens had to deal with in 2019: Zimbabwe insisted that all duties be paid in U.S. dollars; Ghana and Kenya demanded that shippers purchase special stickers from government officials to affix to all packaging to prevent smuggling. The African Export-Import Bank estimates intra-African trade could increase by 52% during the first year after the pact is implemented and more than double during the first decade. The AfCFTA represents a “new pan-Africanism” and is “a pragmatic realization” that African countries need to unite to achieve better deals with trading partners, says Carlos Lopes, the former executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and one of the architects of the agreement. From his closer-to-the-ground vantage point, Olisaemeka Anieze also sees possible benefits. He’s relocating from South Africa, where he sold secondhand clothes, to his home country of Nigeria, where he wants to farm fish and possibly export them to neighboring countries. “God willing,” he says, “if the free-trade agreement comes through, Africa can hold its own.” In the meantime, there are those roads. About 80% of African trade travels over them, according to Tralac. The World Bank estimates the poor state of highways and other infrastructure cuts productivity by as much as 40%. If the AfCFTA can trim the red tape, at least driving the roads will be more bearable, says David Myende, 38, a South African trucker resting after crossing the border post into South Africa on the way back from delivering a load to the Zambian mining town of Ndola. “The trip is short, the borders are long,” he says. “They’re really long when you’re laden, and customs officers can keep you waiting up to four or five days to clear your goods.”
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02-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. Africa |
This Phenomenon was positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend reversal. The ZAR is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon. African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon. This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.
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enormous swarms of ravenous desert locusts, some blanketing as much as 2,400 square kilometres of land, in the country's worst locust invasion in 70 years. @globeandmail Africa |
In coming months it could spread to several more countries, expanding as much as 500 times by June if left unchecked, United Nations experts say. Many African countries are already suffering from droughts and floods – sometimes simultaneously in the same country. Locusts of almost biblical proportions are the latest threat to impoverished farmers who have been pushed to the brink by recent climate-related disasters. “Our staff in Kenya are battling swarms so thick they can barely see through them,” said Bill Chambers, president and CEO of humanitarian organization Save the Children Canada. A single locust can travel 150 kilometres and eat its own weight in food each day, about two grams. A small swarm of 40 to 80 million locusts, covering a square kilometre, can consume as much food as 35,000 people in a day. The biggest swarm in northeastern Kenya covers an area of 60 kilometres by 40 kilometres – three times as big as Toronto – and could hold as many as 190 billion locusts, consuming as much food daily as 90 million people.
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09-DEC-2019 :: Revelation 6:12-13 When he opened the sixth seal, I looked, and behold, there was a great earthquake, and the sun became black as sackcloth, the full moon became like blood, and the stars of the sky fell to the earth Africa |
Revelation 6:12-13 When he opened the sixth seal, I looked, and behold, there was a great earthquake, and the sun became black as sackcloth, the full moon became like blood, and the stars of the sky fell to the earth as the fig tree sheds its winter fruit when shaken by a gale.
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Kenya is set to hold discussions with the @IMFNews from March about a cautionary facility. @BD_Africa Africa |
Kenya is set to hold discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from March about a cautionary facility. Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Governor Patrick Njoroge said on Tuesday at a briefing that Kenyan officials are, however, not under pressure to secure a deal within set deadlines, as the Kenyan economy is well protected against capital outflows. “We want to have insurance for extreme events. This isn’t a bailout…we are more relaxed,” he said. “They’ll be coming at the end of this quarter sometimes in February or March.” The scheduled meetings mark the latest round of talks after previous efforts to renew the Sh150 billion facility that expired in September 2018 failed due to unfulfilled requirements which included achievement of lower fiscal deficit and removal of the rate cap on bank customer loans.
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EABL reports H1 2020 EPS +7.362% Earnings here Africa |
Par Value: 2/- Closing Price: 215.00 Total Shares Issued: 790774356.00 Market Capitalization: 170,016,486,540 EPS: 11.23 PE: 19.145
EABL HY 2020 results through 31st December 2019 vs. 31st December 2018
HY Revenue 45.856b vs. 41.574b +10.300% HY Cost of sales [24.013b] vs. [22.402b] +7.191% HY Gross profit 21.843b vs. 19.172b +13.932% HY Total costs [11.241b] vs. [9.453b] +18.915% HY PBT 10.602b vs. 9.719b +9.085% HY PAT 7.209b vs. 6.609b +9.079% Basic EPS 7.00 vs. 6.52 +7.362% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.092b vs. 8.757b +38.084% Net Assets 56.451b vs. 53.406b +5.702% Interim dividend per share 3.00 vs. 2.50 +20.000%
The Board of Directors of East African Breweries Limited (EABL) is pleased to announce the half year results for the period ended 31 December 2019. EABL revenue rose by 10% to Kshs 45.9 billion driven by higher volumes sold across the Group. Profit for the period grew by 9% attributable to increased revenue, strong innovation pipeline and continued cost efficiencies across the organization.
Key Highlights: • Group’s volumes grew by 5% driven by a strong mix across brand categories. • During the period, EABL leveraged innovations to drive sales, with new brands contributing 28% of revenues. Recently-launched brands include Tusker Cider, Hop House 13 Lager, Guinness Smooth, Sikera Cider, Black & White whisky, Smirnoff X and Triple Ace Vodka and Uganda Waragi variants among others. • Gross profit improved by 14% and profit after tax grew 9% driven by a calmer operational environment, strong top line performance, positive mix and cost efficiencies generated through productivity initiatives. • Group’s capital expenditure stood at Kshs 4.4 billion with investment in production capacity improvements for existing and new brands as part of supporting future growth of the business.
Overall, EABL delivered a strong set of results in the first half of the year across all segments and markets, although excise duty escalation on alcoholic beverages in Kenya’s last budget negatively impacted bottled beer. This robust set of results, supported by continued investment behind our brands, places us on a consistent growth trajectory to achieve our performance ambition.
Net sales were up 10% to Kshs 45.9 billion, driven by higher volumes, up 5% across the Group Net sales in EABL’s largest market, Kenya, grew by 8%, with beer and spirits growing by 6% and 11%, respectively. The market registered an outstanding performance in Senator keg, with the iconic, low-priced beer growing by a fifth, with the new Kisumu investment driving growth. Mainstream spirits and Scotch whisky sales increased by 17% and 23% respectively, with remarkable performance of Black & White. The increase in excise duty drove bottled beer decline of -1%, despite successful brand campaigns such as Tusker Na Nyama and Guinness Football. Uganda Breweries’ premiumisation agenda delivered better mix and margins, helping lift net sales by 10%, driven by 15% growth in beer and 1% in spirits, the latter was also impacted by the ban of the sachet format. Marketing campaigns such as Bell All-Star Tour and Tusker Lite Neon Experience helped drive bottled beer growth by 15%. Launch of Black & White whisky helped lift Uganda’s Scotch performance with net sales rising by 84% while the ready-to-drink category grew by 18%. Serengeti Breweries in Tanzania, the Group’s fastest growing business, expanded by 19%, lifted largely by a consistent performance in local executions to drive the Serengeti trademark. EABL leveraged several innovation initiatives during the half year, with new brands contributing 28% of the net sales. Recently launched brands such as Hop House 13 Lager, Guinness Smooth, Sikera Cider, Black &White whisky and Triple Ace vodka contributed significantly to growth. Commenting on the first half, EABL Group Managing Director and CEO, Andrew Cowan, said: “We are pleased by this performance. Although excise duty escalation on alcoholic beverages in Kenya’s last budget impacted bottled beer, a more stable operating environment provided an opportunity to continue our growth momentum during the period. We remain cautiously optimistic about our second half of the year, although unpredicted tax and regulatory changes and challenges in our operating environment continue to present potential risks in the horizon.” He added: “We will continue to focus on the execution of our strategy across our businesses. We are confident there is ongoing potential for growth across our geographies and categories. At the premium end, people are trading up while at the price-sensitive end, we believe we can recruit more illicit alcohol consumption by offering safe, quality options.” The Board of Directors has recommended an interim dividend of Kshs 3 per share for the half-year period. This represents a 20% increase from Kshs 2.50 compared to the same period last year.
Conclusions
Strong Results. The increase in the interim Dividend of 20% is a Signal. Lots of innovation. Broad based uptick with Tanzania outperforming.
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