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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 31st of January 2020

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Macro Thoughts

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first 30 days of 2020 $TSLA $418 to $650 | + 55% $BYND $76 to $117 | +53% $BTC $7170 to $9500 | +32% @Melt_Dem

electric cars made by tony stark aka  @elonmusk. fake meat that
bleeds. magical internet money.

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#Family guard ! Few #elephants from the #family will always play this role. They will keep a watch while herd moves. @ParveenKaswan

If herd is big, say 80-100 there will be more guards. At least one
strong bull will trail herd. It will keep an eye from behind & keep
pushing laggards. #nature

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Agua Quemada / Burnt Water by Carlos Fuentes [What a book!]

“Fuentes's genius is indisputable. He is a fountain of the myths and
spiritual past and present of his native Mexico, which he has revealed
to us in such novels as The Death of Artemio Cruz, Terra Nostra, and
Aura. He does so again in this collection of short stories ... There
is a beauty, passion and brilliance here that, even if we had never
heard of Mexico, we could not miss.” —Publishers Weekly
“As usual, Fuentes is in full command of both form and language,
slipping effortlessly from realism to fantasy and from the casual to
the profound.” —The Atlantic Monthly
“With seven novels already published in translation, this is Fuentes's
first book of stories to appear in English. As the Author's Note makes
clear, the protagonist of Burnt Water is modern-day Mexico City, its
historic charm, its dirt and violence, its deep political and class
divisions.” —Library Journal
“The wealth of imagination and invention in these stories is simply
breathtaking ...” —New Statesman

Political Reflections

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Law & Politics

The first son-in-law has warned Palestinians not to “screw up this
opportunity” at peace that he’s so graciously given to them.
Kushner, ever the real estate agent, gave a speech in which he spoke
of transforming the Gaza Strip into a tourist destination, failing to
mention Israel and Egypt’s 12-year blockade of the Hamas-controlled
territory, in addition to Israel’s 52-year-long occupation of the West
Bank, which restricts trade and labor movements.
When the Boy Prince of New Jersey touched on politics, it was to offer
the savvy take that if everyone just stopped “doing terrorism,” it
would “allow for much faster flow of goods and people.”
Not surprisingly, the whole thing was panned by experts, one of whom
described Kushner’s plan as “the Monty Python sketch of
Israeli-Palestinian peace initiatives.”
Undeterred, Kushner got on a call with Arab and Israeli reporters and,
putting on his salesman cap, explained that his vision was 100%
workable if Palestinian leadership would stop being so “hysterical and
Appearing on CNN, Kushner told Christiane Amanpour that critics of his
plan—of which there are a comically huge number—must “divorce
[themselves] from all of the history” and focus on the deal he has
outlined for them.
And speaking of history, Kushner posited that if this whole thing
fails, it’s not going to be because a glorified slumlord somehow
didn’t get it right but because Palestinians are morons who don’t know
what’s good for them. Sayeth Kushner:
You have 5 million Palestinians who are really trapped because of bad
leadership. So what we’ve done is we’ve created an opportunity for
their leadership to either seize or not.
If they screw up this opportunity—which, again, they have a perfect
track record of missing opportunities—if they screw this up, I think
that they will have a very hard time looking the international
community in the face, saying they are victims, saying they have
This is a great deal for them. If they come to the table and
negotiate, I think they can get something excellent.…
The Palestinian leadership have to ask themselves a question: Do they
want to have a state? Do they want to have a better life?
If they do, we have created a framework for them to have it, and we’re
going to treat them in a very respectful manner. If they don’t, then
they’re going to screw up another opportunity like they’ve screwed up
every other opportunity that they’ve ever had in their existence.

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"There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with intl. travel & trade. We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based & consistent. @WHO"- @DrTedros
Law & Politics

"There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with
intl. travel & trade. We call on all countries to implement decisions
that are evidence-based & consistent. WHO stands ready to provide
advice to any country that is considering which measures to take"-

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27-JAN-2020 :: #WuhanCoronavirus #nCoV2019 #coronavirus
Law & Politics

President Xi warned The Corona virus is 'accelerating' [and the]
country [is] facing 'grave situation'.
So who had ‘mutated bat-snake flu’ as their top market risk for 2020?
tweeted @tracyalloway.
The Precise origins of the Corona virus are yet to be established with
Wiley's Journal of Medical Virology saying it may be may be
snake-to-human transmission and some even pointing the Finger at the
Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Wuhan bio-safety level four
(BSL-4) laboratory
and surmising that the only explanation left is artificial DNA
modification, possibly by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which since
2007 has collected samples from thousands of bats across the country
and done genetic experiments with them.
What is clear is that the CCP suppressed information until we reached
a Groucho Marx ''Who Ya Gonna Believe, Me or Your Own Eyes'' moment.
Epidemiologists speak of Tipping Points. Malcolm Gladwell described
the ''Tipping Point''  as the name given to that moment in an epidemic
when a virus reaches critical mass. It's the boiling point. It's the
moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.
In an article in 2014 about Ebola I called it the moment of ''escape
velocity'' and wrote ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential
The Mathematics is the basic reproduction number of the infection
(R_0), which represents how many People each person infected with the
coronavirus is passing the disease on to. A number of less than 1,
means the virus dies out.
For a Frame of Reference, the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal
flu is around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic R0=1.48. The 1918
Spanish Flu =1.80. The R0 range is somewhere between 2.00-2.6 with Dr.
Eric Ding speaking of 3.8 over the weekend.
@DrEricDing tweeted the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that
reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never
seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire
career [before adjusting his calculations lower to 2.5]
Each person infected with coronavirus is passing the disease on to
between two and three other people on average at current transmission
rates, according to two separate scientific analyses of the epidemic.
Ferguson’s team suggest as many as 4,000 people in Wuhan were already
infected by Jan. 18 and that on average each case was infecting two or
three others.
A second study by researchers at Britain’s Lancaster University also
calculated the contagion rate at 2.5 new people on average being
infected by each person already infected.
''Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict (it) will
be substantially larger by Feb. 4,” the scientists wrote.
They estimated that the central Chinese city of Wuhan where the
outbreak began in December will alone have around 190,000 cases of
infection by Feb. 4., and that “infection will be established in other
Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more
The Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when
*no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients...
quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic
infection appears possible”
The overarching Point is that whether its 2.5 or 3.8 this is off the
charts. The CCP is building hospitals in a record breaking 7 days but
who will man them? China has locked down a total of 47m of its
Given the new hyperconnectedness of the World [For example, did you
know there is a daily Ethiopian Flight between Wuhan and Addis Abeba -
As of Thursday Ethiopian Airlines, which has multiple daily passenger
and cargo flights to China and Africa’s busiest airport hub, said it
was waiting for guidance from Ethiopia’s Health Ministry on how to
respond], I have to assume that the Corona virus is already in Africa
but just not diagnosed. Thats a racing certainty.
Paul Virilio wrote ''With every natural disaster, health scare, and
malicious rumor now comes the inevitable “information bomb”–live feeds
take over real space, and technology connects life to the immediacy of
terror, the ultimate expression of speed''
And in his book City of panic he described The city reconstructed
through the use mediatized panic.
Markets bought Gold and G7 Bonds on Friday as Investors dived into
Safe Havens, Next week we could see these moves turn parabolic.
“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the
parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

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What is in the "S" region of the #coronavirus? According to the Lancet piece it encodes virus envelop spike protein of the for binding receptors of host cells - "crucial for host tropism" - which basically identifies how to target host
Law & Politics

14. What is in the “S” 🧬 region of the #coronavirus? According to the
Lancet piece (link 🧵 above), it encodes the virus envelop spike
protein of the 🦠 for binding receptors of host cells - “crucial for
host tropism” — which basically identifies how to target 🎯 host

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Day 15 (January 30) chart update of PUBLISHED DATA @biancoresearch
Law & Politics

nCov19 infections surpassed the total 60-day total for SARS.
nCov19 mortality about to exceed the 60-day total for Swine Flu (next 2 days)
Is China understating the data?  Probably.  But what they are
providing is worrisome.

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20 OCT 14 :: it is about its 'escape velocity' viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics. EBOLA #WuhanCoronavirus
Law & Politics

“It is a numbers game, the more cases you have the more likely there
are going to be mutations that could change the virus in a significant
way,” said David Sanders, a professor of biological sciences at Purdue
University who studies Ebola.
“The more it persists, the more likely we are going to be thrown a curve.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1020
Dollar Index 97.957
Japan Yen 109.07
Swiss Franc 0.9710
Pound 1.3114
Aussie 0.6715
India Rupee 71.4322
South Korea Won 1192.21
Brazil Real 4.2438
Egypt Pound 15.7976
South Africa Rand 14.7744

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Governments are failing in the fight against jihadis in the Sahel @FT @davidpilling

It must be the least known epicentre of global terrorism. Burkina
Faso, a landlocked country in west Africa, is now home to the world’s
fastest-growing Islamist insurgency.
Only last weekend, suspected militants attacked a market not far from
the lightly patrolled border with Mali, killing some 50 people.
That was merely the latest in a gruesome string of attacks on targets
soft and hard.
Thousands of people were killed last year and some 560,000 displaced
in a country of 19m. On Christmas Eve, 35 civilians — 31 of them women
— were slaughtered when dozens of militants on motorbikes rode into
town in Soum province, where last weekend’s attack took place.
A few days later, 11 soldiers were killed at a military base, again in
Soum. As the crisis escalates, the Norwegian Refugee Council predicts
the number of displaced people will rise to 900,000.
Burkina Faso borders six countries. Two of them, Niger and especially
Mali, are centres of Islamist insurgencies themselves. They are home
to a potpourri of homegrown rebellions, foreign fighters linked to
al-Qaeda and Isis, criminal gangs and weapons pouring out of Libya.
The lure of fundamentalism, with its promise of order, is strong in
parts of the country where traces of the state are as wispy as gun
The other four countries — Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo and Benin — are
coastal nations that have mostly been spared terrorist attention. That
is likely to change.
Geography and circumstance have rendered Burkina Faso a potential
conduit for a jihadi insurgency that now menaces much of west Africa.
The country is the latest battleground in a war that first announced
itself in 2012. Then, local Tuareg rebels joined forces with al-Qaeda
affiliated foreign fighters.
They quickly took over much of northern Mali, imposing a sharia regime
in a region previously known for tolerance, music and ancient learning
centred on Timbuktu. It took a 2013 invasion by French forces wielding
formidable air power to dislodge them.
Operation Serval, as it was called, was a swift success. As so often
in military interventions, the follow-up has been less impressive. The
French, rightly, had no plans for nation building. Unfortunately, it
seems, neither did the Malian government.
The Islamist threat has since metastasised. In Mali, central towns
such as Mopti and Gao are in effect beyond government influence.
Fighting has spread to Niger and Burkina Faso. The region has drawn
fighters fleeing the crumbled caliphate in Syria and Iraq.
On paper, the response is joined up. On the ground, it has been
piecemeal. The so-called G5 group of five Sahelian countries — Burkina
Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger — has formed a combined force
to battle the insurgency. Signs of strain are everywhere.
Too often, government troops — poorly trained, poorly equipped and
poorly paid — commit their own atrocities, stoking further resentment.
The title of a Human Rights Watch report on Burkina Faso — “During the
day, we are afraid of the army, and at night of the jihadis” — tells
you much of what you need to know.
The western response is almost as shaky. France has 4,500 troops in
Mali under the umbrella of Operation Barkhane. The US has several
hundred personnel and two drone bases in Niger. But nerves are
Last month, Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, angered by
anti-French sentiment — some of it coming from government officials
themselves — threatened to draw down his troops.
He is right. Regional governments need to back the French or sack
them. They cannot have it both ways.
In the end, Mr Macron agreed to bolster the French presence with 220
extra troops. Coalition forces will, at least in theory, be under
joint French-G5 command.
Mr Macron has urged the US not to quit, as has been floated, calling
its presence “irreplaceable”.
Irreplaceable or not, a military response alone is not enough.
Mishandled, it could be counterproductive.
Insecurity loves an institutional vacuum. In much of the Sahel, that
is precisely what the insurgents have found. The most urgent need is
for a functioning state.
That means spreading the public goods — schools, healthcare,
infrastructure, economic opportunity and security — that are the gift
of good governance.
While this is primarily the responsibility of national governments,
they are mostly failing in their task. They urgently need to build a
social contract between themselves and those in whose names they
If outsiders can help in that cause, that is where their priority should lie.
Military intervention is no long-term solution. Judging by the recent
escalation in violence, it may not even be a short-term one.

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02-DEC-2019 :: @SalifKeita released a video on his Facebook page in which he tells President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita to stop "subjecting yourself to little Emmanuel Macron - he's just a kid."

President Macron’s France experienced one of its worst losses of in
France’s military in more than three decades -- 13 dead soldiers
during an anti-terrorism mission in Mali -- Two Helicopters collided
in the dead of the Mali-an night.
Salif Keita, one of Mali’s best-loved musicians, released a video on
his Facebook page in which he tells President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita
to stop “subjecting yourself to little Emmanuel Macron– he’s just a

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Ethiopian Airlines on Thursday suspended all flights to China, where an outbreak of coronavirus has killed at least 170 people, according to the airline's passenger call centre. [reversed]

The airline, Africa’s most profitable, is the main gateway between
China and Africa and suspension of its service is expected to
significantly disrupt air travel. The carrier runs six flights to
China daily across five Chinese destinations.
An Ethiopian Airlines spokesman declined to comment.
China has heavily invested in Ethiopia in recent years as it has in
other African countries.
Ethiopia’s state minister for Health Lia Tadesse said in a tweet on
Thursday that tests for coronavirus on four Ethiopians at a lab in
South Africa came back negative.

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Prowling Lions and Corrupt Officials Block Roads to Africa Trade @business @markets

Nyoni Nsukuzimbi drives his 40-ton Freightliner for just over half a
day from Johannesburg to the Beitbridge border post with Zimbabwe.
At the frontier town—little more than a gas station and a KFC—he sits
in a line for two to three days, in temperatures reaching 104F,
waiting for his documents to be processed.
That’s only the start of a journey Nsukuzimbi makes maybe twice a
month. Driving 550 miles farther north gets him to the Chirundu border
post on the Zambian frontier.
There, starting at a bridge across the Zambezi River, trucks snake
back miles into the bush. “There’s no water, there’s no toilets, there
are lions,” says the 40-year-old Zimbabwean.
He leans out of the Freightliner’s cab over the hot asphalt, wearing a
white T-shirt and a weary expression. “It’s terrible.”
By the time he gets his load of tiny plastic beads—the kind used in
many manufacturing processes—to a factory on the outskirts of Zambia’s
capital, Lusaka, he’s been on the road for as many as 10 days to
traverse just 1,000 miles.
Nsukuzimbi’s trials are typical of truck drivers across Africa, where
border bureaucracy, corrupt officials seeking bribes, and a myriad of
regulations that vary from country to country have stymied attempts to
boost intra-African trade.
The continent’s leaders say they’re acting to change all that.
Fifty-three of its 54 nations have signed up to join the African
Continental Free Trade Area; only Eritrea, which rivals North Korea in
its isolation from the outside world, hasn’t.
The African Union-led agreement is designed to establish the world’s
biggest free-trade zone by area, encompassing a combined economy of
$2.5 trillion and a market of 1.2 billion people.
Agreed in May 2019, the pact is meant to take effect in July and be
fully operational by 2030.
“The AfCFTA,” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in his Oct.
7 weekly letter to the nation, “will be a game-changer, both for South
Africa and the rest of the continent.”
It has to be if African economies are ever going to achieve their
potential. Africa lags behind other regions in terms of internal
trade, with intracontinental commerce accounting for only 15% of total
trade, compared with 58% in Asia and more than 70% in Europe.
As a result, supermarket shelves in cities such as Luanda, Angola, and
Abidjan, Ivory Coast, are lined with goods imported from the countries
that once colonized them, Portugal and France.
By lowering or eliminating cross-border tariffs on 90% of
African-produced goods, the new regulations are supposed to facilitate
the movement of capital and people and create a liberalized market for
“We haven’t seen as much institutional will for a large African Union
project before,” says Kobi Annan, an analyst at Songhai Advisory in
Ghana. “The time frame is a little ambitious, but we will get there.”
President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana and other heads of state joined
Ramaphosa in hailing the agreement, but a number of the businesspeople
who are supposed to benefit from it are skeptical.
“Many of these governments depend on that duty income. I don’t see how
that’s ever going to disappear,” says Tertius Carstens, the chief
executive officer of Pioneer Foods Group Ltd., a South African maker
of fruit juices and cereal that’s being acquired by PepsiCo Inc. for
about $1.7 billion.
“Politically it sounds good; practically it’s going to be a nightmare
to implement, and I expect resistance.”
Under the rules, small countries such as Malawi, whose central
government gets 7.7% of its revenue from taxes on international trade
and transactions, will forgo much-needed income, at least initially.
By contrast, relatively industrialized nations like Egypt, Kenya, and
South Africa will benefit from the outset.
“AfCFTA will require huge trade-offs from political leaders,” says
Ronak Gopaldas, a London-based director at Signal Risk, which advises
companies in Africa. “They will need to think beyond short-term
election cycles and sovereignty in policymaking.”
Taking those disparities into account, the AfCFTA may allow poorer
countries such as Ethiopia 15 years to comply with the trade regime,
whereas South Africa and other more developed nations must do so
within five.
To further soften the effects on weaker economies, Africa could follow
the lead of the European Union, says Axel Pougin de La Maissoneuve,
deputy head of the trade and private sector unit in the European
Commission’s Directorate General for Development and International
The EU adopted a redistribution model to offset potential losses by
Greece, Portugal, and other countries.
There may be structural impediments to the AfCFTA’s ambitions. Iron
ore, oil, and other raw materials headed for markets such as China
make up about half of the continent’s exports.
“African countries don’t produce the goods that are demanded by
consumers and businesses in other African countries,” says Trudi
Hartzenberg, executive director of the Tralac Trade Law Center in
Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Trust and tension over illicit activity are also obstacles. Beginning
in August, Nigeria shut its land borders to halt a surge in the
smuggling of rice and other foodstuffs.
In September, South Africa drew continentwide opprobrium after a
recurrence of the anti-immigrant riots that have periodically rocked
the nation. This could hinder the AfCFTA’s provisions for the free
movement of people.
Considering all of these roadblocks, a skeptic would be forgiven for
giving the AfCFTA little chance of success. And yet there are already
at least eight trade communities up and running on the continent.
While these are mostly regional groupings, some countries belong to
more than one bloc, creating overlap.
The AfCFTA won’t immediately replace these regional blocs; rather,
it’s designed to harmonize standards and rules, easing trade between
them, and to eventually consolidate the smaller associations under the
continent­wide agreement.
The benefits of the comprehensive agreement are plain to see. It
could, for example, limit the sort of unilateral stumbling blocks
Pioneer Foods’ Carstens had to deal with in 2019: Zimbabwe insisted
that all duties be paid in U.S. dollars; Ghana and Kenya demanded that
shippers purchase special stickers from government officials to affix
to all packaging to prevent smuggling.
The African Export-Import Bank estimates intra-African trade could
increase by 52% during the first year after the pact is implemented
and more than double during the first decade.
The AfCFTA represents a “new pan-Africanism” and is “a pragmatic
realization” that African countries need to unite to achieve better
deals with trading partners, says Carlos Lopes, the former executive
secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and one
of the architects of the agreement.
From his closer-to-the-ground vantage point, Olisaemeka Anieze also
sees possible benefits. He’s relocating from South Africa, where he
sold secondhand clothes, to his home country of Nigeria, where he
wants to farm fish and possibly export them to neighboring countries.
 “God willing,” he says, “if the free-trade agreement comes through,
Africa can hold its own.”
In the meantime, there are those roads. About 80% of African trade
travels over them, according to Tralac.
The World Bank estimates the poor state of highways and other
infrastructure cuts productivity by as much as 40%.
If the AfCFTA can trim the red tape, at least driving the roads will
be more bearable, says David Myende, 38, a South African trucker
resting after crossing the border post into South Africa on the way
back from delivering a load to the Zambian mining town of Ndola.
“The trip is short, the borders are long,” he says. “They’re really
long when you’re laden, and customs officers can keep you waiting up
to four or five days to clear your goods.”

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02-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon.

This Phenomenon was positive for the last two decades but has now
undergone a Trend reversal.
The ZAR is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon. African Countries
heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are also at the
bleeding edge of this Phenomenon. This Pressure Point will not ease
soon but will continue to intensify.

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enormous swarms of ravenous desert locusts, some blanketing as much as 2,400 square kilometres of land, in the country's worst locust invasion in 70 years. @globeandmail

In coming months it could spread to several more countries, expanding
as much as 500 times by June if left unchecked, United Nations experts
Many African countries are already suffering from droughts and floods
– sometimes simultaneously in the same country.
Locusts of almost biblical proportions are the latest threat to
impoverished farmers who have been pushed to the brink by recent
climate-related disasters.
“Our staff in Kenya are battling swarms so thick they can barely see
through them,” said Bill Chambers, president and CEO of humanitarian
organization Save the Children Canada.
A single locust can travel 150 kilometres and eat its own weight in
food each day, about two grams. A small swarm of 40 to 80 million
locusts, covering a square kilometre, can consume as much food as
35,000 people in a day.
The biggest swarm in northeastern Kenya covers an area of 60
kilometres by 40 kilometres – three times as big as Toronto – and
could hold as many as 190 billion locusts, consuming as much food
daily as 90 million people.

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Exodus 10 The Plague of Locusts "If you refuse to let them go, I will bring locusts into your country tomorrow. 5 They will cover the face of the ground so that it cannot be seen 34.

''If you refuse to let them go, I will bring locusts into your country
tomorrow. 5 They will cover the face of the ground so that it cannot
be seen. They will devour what little you have left after the hail,
including every tree that is growing in your fields. 6 They will fill
your houses and those of all your officials and all the
Egyptians—something neither your parents nor your ancestors have ever
seen from the day they settled in this land till now.’”

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09-DEC-2019 :: Revelation 6:12-13 When he opened the sixth seal, I looked, and behold, there was a great earthquake, and the sun became black as sackcloth, the full moon became like blood, and the stars of the sky fell to the earth

Revelation 6:12-13  When he opened the sixth seal, I looked, and
behold, there was a great earthquake, and the sun became black as
sackcloth, the full moon became like blood, and the stars of the sky
fell to the earth as the fig tree sheds its winter fruit when shaken
by a gale.

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Kenya is set to hold discussions with the @IMFNews from March about a cautionary facility. @BD_Africa

Kenya is set to hold discussions with the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) from March about a cautionary facility.
Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Governor Patrick Njoroge said on Tuesday
at a briefing that Kenyan officials are, however, not under pressure
to secure a deal within set deadlines, as the Kenyan economy is well
protected against capital outflows.
“We want to have insurance for extreme events. This isn’t a bailout…we
are more relaxed,” he said.
“They’ll be coming at the end of this quarter sometimes in February or March.”
The scheduled meetings mark the latest round of talks after previous
efforts to renew the Sh150 billion facility that expired in September
2018 failed due to unfulfilled requirements which included achievement
of lower fiscal deficit and removal of the rate cap on bank customer

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EABL reports H1 2020 EPS +7.362% Earnings here

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           215.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774356.00
Market Capitalization:        170,016,486,540
EPS:             11.23
PE:                 19.145

EABL HY 2020 results through 31st December 2019 vs. 31st December 2018

HY Revenue 45.856b vs. 41.574b +10.300%
HY Cost of sales [24.013b] vs. [22.402b] +7.191%
HY Gross profit 21.843b vs.  19.172b +13.932%
HY Total costs [11.241b] vs. [9.453b] +18.915%
HY PBT 10.602b vs. 9.719b +9.085%
HY PAT 7.209b vs. 6.609b +9.079%
Basic EPS 7.00 vs. 6.52 +7.362%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.092b vs. 8.757b +38.084%
Net Assets 56.451b vs. 53.406b +5.702%
Interim dividend per share 3.00 vs. 2.50 +20.000%

The Board of Directors of East African Breweries Limited (EABL) is
pleased to announce the half year results for the period ended 31
December 2019.
EABL revenue rose by 10% to Kshs 45.9 billion driven by higher volumes
sold across the Group.
Profit for the period grew by 9% attributable to increased revenue,
strong innovation pipeline and continued cost efficiencies across the

Key Highlights:
• Group’s volumes grew by 5% driven by a strong mix across brand categories.
• During the period, EABL leveraged innovations to drive sales, with
new brands contributing 28% of revenues. Recently-launched brands
include Tusker Cider, Hop House 13 Lager, Guinness Smooth, Sikera
Cider, Black & White whisky, Smirnoff X and Triple Ace Vodka and
Uganda Waragi variants among others.
• Gross profit improved by 14% and profit after tax grew 9% driven by
a calmer operational environment, strong top line performance,
positive mix and cost efficiencies generated through productivity
• Group’s capital expenditure stood at Kshs 4.4 billion with
investment in production capacity improvements for existing and new
brands as part of supporting future growth of the business.

Overall, EABL delivered a strong set of results in the first half of
the year across all segments and markets, although excise duty
escalation on alcoholic beverages in Kenya’s last budget negatively
impacted bottled beer. This robust set of results, supported by
continued investment behind our brands, places us on a consistent
growth trajectory to achieve our performance ambition.

Net sales were up 10% to Kshs 45.9 billion, driven by higher volumes,
up 5% across the Group
Net sales in EABL’s largest market, Kenya, grew by 8%, with beer and
spirits growing by 6% and 11%, respectively.
The market registered an outstanding performance in Senator keg, with
the iconic, low-priced beer growing by a fifth, with the new Kisumu
investment driving growth.
Mainstream spirits and Scotch whisky sales increased by 17% and 23%
respectively, with remarkable performance of Black & White.
The increase in excise duty drove bottled beer decline of -1%, despite
successful brand campaigns such as Tusker Na Nyama and Guinness
Uganda Breweries’ premiumisation agenda delivered better mix and
margins, helping lift net sales by 10%, driven by 15% growth in beer
and 1% in spirits, the latter was also impacted by the ban of the
sachet format.
Marketing campaigns such as Bell All-Star Tour and Tusker Lite Neon
Experience helped drive bottled beer growth by 15%.
Launch of Black & White whisky helped lift Uganda’s Scotch performance
with net sales rising by 84% while the ready-to-drink category grew by
Serengeti Breweries in Tanzania, the Group’s fastest growing business,
expanded by 19%, lifted largely by a consistent performance in local
executions to drive the Serengeti trademark.
EABL leveraged several innovation initiatives during the half year,
with new brands contributing 28% of the net sales. Recently launched
brands such as Hop House 13 Lager, Guinness Smooth, Sikera Cider,
Black &White whisky and Triple Ace vodka contributed significantly to
Commenting on the first half, EABL Group Managing Director and CEO,
Andrew Cowan, said: “We are pleased by this performance. Although
excise duty escalation on alcoholic beverages in Kenya’s last budget
impacted bottled beer, a more stable operating environment provided an
opportunity to continue our growth momentum during the period. We
remain cautiously optimistic about our second half of the year,
although unpredicted tax and regulatory changes and challenges in our
operating environment continue to present potential risks in the
 He added: “We will continue to focus on the execution of our strategy
across our businesses. We are confident there is ongoing potential for
growth across our geographies and categories. At the premium end,
people are trading up while at the price-sensitive end, we believe we
can recruit more illicit alcohol consumption by offering safe, quality
The Board of Directors has recommended an interim dividend of Kshs 3
per share for the half-year period. This represents a 20% increase
from Kshs 2.50 compared to the same period last year.


Strong Results. The increase in the interim Dividend of 20% is a Signal.
Lots of innovation.
Broad based uptick with Tanzania outperforming.

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EABL's revenue rose by 10% to Kshs 45.9 billion driven by higher volumes sold across the Group @RichFrontiers

Profit for the period grew by 9% attributable to increased revenue,
strong innovation pipeline and continued cost efficiencies across the

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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January 2020

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