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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 08th of April 2020
 
Morning
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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24-FEB-2020 :: The Viral Moment has Arrived #COVID19
Africa


At this point I would venture Gold is correlated to the #Coronavirus
which is set to turn parabolic and is already non linear and
exponential ~

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#FIRMAN OF Emperor Akbar Shah II #Mughal dated 1837 AD. @MohdMuzzammilK
Africa


Persian manuscript on paper, black nasta'liq in clouds, seal impresion
in the upper right surrounded by gold & polychrome illumination
beneath a chhatri, dated  32nd year of reign. Size 96 x 51cm.

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06-APR-2020 : The Way we live now
Law & Politics


It certainly is a new c21st that we find ourselves in. There is a
luminous and Fairy Tale feel to life in quarantine and as you know
most fairy tales have an oftentimes dark and dangerous and unspoken
undercurrent. I sit in my study and its as if my hearing is sharpened.
I hear the Breeze, birdsong, Nature in its many forms and the urban
background noise which was once the constant accompaniment to daily
life has entirely retreated. The Nights are dark, the stars are bright
and the neighbiours long gone.

There is a Passage in V.S Naipaul's A Bend in the River

“Going home at night! It wasn't often that I was on the river at
night. I never liked it. I never felt in control. In the darkness of
river and forest you could be sure only of what you could see — and
even on a moonlight night you couldn't see much. When you made a noise
— dipped a paddle in the water — you heard yourself as though you were
another person. The river and the forest were like presences, and much
more powerful than you. You felt unprotected, an intruder ... You felt
the land taking you back to something that was familiar, something you
had known at some time but had forgotten or ignored, but which was
always there.You felt the land taking you back to what was there a
hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”  ― V.S. Naipaul, A
Bend in the River

One feels one must tread more carefully now, with a lot of
circumspection, that not just my purchase but all of ours is a lot
more precarious now and that there is something Karmic in this
#COVID19. When I saw a Video of a Pool Party in South Africa, where
everyone was chanting ''Corona Corona'' like a mantra, I recoiled, I
couldn't watch because I thought to myself, You can be sure of one
thing COVID19 will come. The COVID19 is invisible but it has already
defeated the most expensive Aircraft carriers, it lurks everywhere and
in silence and has put down Mecca, St. Peters Square and the Vatican,
Qom and everywhere else that we congregate and ask for succour. It is
not to be trifled with. Boris dismissed it and now speaks to the
Nation like a disembodied voice from a Bunker.  [I wrote this before
the news about Boris Johnson's hospitalisation I wish him a speedy
recovery]

Trump too thinks its another Trade and his luck which took him all the
way to the Presidency will hold out and watching his always surreal
White House Briefing has an added frisson of the waiting for him to
turn yellow. And I suppose we all wish we had an Angela Merkel because
at least then we might have a fighting chance.

Don DeLillo wrote "Everything is barely weeks. Everything is days. We
have minutes to live."

And it certainly feels like we are pirouetting at the precipice and
our Leaders are saying Don't Panic and I want to say ''look Chum You
are not Merkel and just a few days ago You were telling me its all
cool its just the Flu. Others might take you seriously on what basis I
know not but I don't.''

Venturing to the Supermarket is like going on a Safari. You look
around. You keep your distance. You want to leave. You think every
surface is potentially a Killer. You walk around the familiar and it
all feels so unfamiliar.

And what is clear is that we are all in our different but similar
quarantined experiences at an inflexion Point because COVID19 has
brought us all to an inevitable question. What is it all about? Can it
ever return to what it was? As I try and peer through into the Future
the one thing I do know is that its not reverting to what it was. We
are turning the Page here and the uncertainty is because we all know
collectively that's what we are about to do. The book is in front of
us and the page might turn itself but turn it will. The Question is
what is on the next page and I cannot answer that.

What I do know is this. Regime implosion is coming to the Oil
Producers and Trump can game the price a little more sure but its a
pointless exercise. Demand has cratered and a return to a hyper
connected 100m barrels per day world is not going to happen for the
foreseeable future. Putin will survive because he prepared for this
moment. Others are as good as terminated. I also know that we are
about to enter The Great Depression. The FED, The ECB and the all the
other Central Banks can print but at some point it turns Weimar
Germany. Before it turns Weimar Germany, it falls off a cliff in
Emerging Markets. We are watching the Great Decoupling unfold in front
of our eyes, from Brazil to South Africa to India. Twenty years of
good times are now ended. Africa is simply too dreadful to
contemplate. We are weeks away now from collapsing health care systems
and ''blow ups'' in our urban centres. Ramaphosa and Kagame might have
a chance but everywhere else I look, leadership is as clueless as
Trump is in his White House Briefing.

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In China if you've been censored you've been "harmonised". #COVID19
Law & Politics


Also 和谐 hexie over the eyes means "harmony" (from former Pres Hu
catchphrase). In China if you've been censored you've been
"harmonised".

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Chinese Ejecting Africans From Homes, Hotels Over Claims Of Importing Coronavirus Into Country @SaharaReporters H/T @cobbo3
Law & Politics


They said, “There are claims that blacks are the ones now importing
Coronavirus into China.
“Foreigners and particularly black people are currently not allowed to
access public places including malls, restaurants and hospitals.
“They have landlords to evict them, they chase them out of hotels and
make them go through all sorts because of Coronavirus.”
“I would like to keep you informed that for the good of public health,
anyone (including Chinese nationals) with overseas-travel records will
be required to undergo an epidemic investigation and PCR testing,” the
letter to the Ghanaian Government read.
In a notice to foreigners in the affected province, the Chinese
Government said, “From April 5th to April 7th, according to relevant
government departments, the streets will organise African tenants
within their jurisdictions to carry out nucleic acid screening at
designated sites (open space in front of the neighbourhood committee).
Owners/residents are requested to know and inform their families.”

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Hopefully this pandemic forces a proper rethink of the trillions in defence-spending. Governments (let’s face it) were utterly ill-prepared to protect their citizens from this virus. @DavidInglesTV
International Trade


Hopefully this pandemic forces a proper rethink of the trillions in
defence-spending. Governments (let’s face it) were utterly
ill-prepared to protect their citizens from this virus. What one would
give for an F-16 worth of ventilators right now

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The virus may be the most dangerous adversary America has ever faced. It's like the US was invaded. Tweeted @balajis #COVID19
International Trade


The normal defenses fail. It can't be bombed. Bank accounts can't be
frozen. Unbreakable morale. No supply chain. Lives off the land.
Infinite reinforcements. Fully decentralized.
I wrote a Non Linear and exponential Virus represents the greatest
risk to a Control Machine in point of fact #COVID19.

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CREDIT SUISSE: S&P 500 was up 22.4% from March 23 lows .. “pushing stock multiples to 19.0x forward (based on fresh estimates). This is the same level it held on Feb 19, the all-time high ..” (Golub) @carlquintanilla
International Trade


CREDIT SUISSE: As of 12:30pm today, the S&P 500 was up 22.4% from
March 23 lows .. “pushing stock multiples to 19.0x forward (based on
fresh estimates). This is the same level it held on Feb 19, the
all-time high ..” (Golub)

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0853
Dollar Index 100.376
Japan Yen 108.805
Swiss Franc 0.9733
Pound 1.2307
Aussie 0.6130
India Rupee 75.9075
South Korea Won 1221.90
Brazil Real 5.223
Egypt Pound 15.7866
South Africa Rand 18.3711

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06-APR-2020 : Demand has cratered and a return to a hyper connected 100m barrels per day world is not going to happen for the foreseeable future.
Commodities


What I do know is this. Regime implosion is coming to the Oil
Producers and Trump can game the price a little more sure but its a
pointless exercise.
Demand has cratered and a return to a hyper connected 100m barrels per
day world is not going to happen for the foreseeable future.
Putin will survive because he prepared for this moment. Others are as
good as terminated. I also know that we are about to enter The Great
Depression.

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22-MAR-2020 :: COVID-19 and a Rolling Sudden Stop #COVID19
Commodities


We are moving from a World of Hyper Connectedness to a World of
Quarantine. A complete Quarantine is the only way to vaccine this
c21st World of ours
#Coronavirus "has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century
pathogen we've been worried about." - @BillGates
The Price of Crude Oil is perfectly correlated to the #COVID19 Sudden Stop

#Coronavirus "has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century
pathogen we've been worried about." - @BillGates #COVID19

https://j.mp/2WD1tl0

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“Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetises thought, blurs vision, corrupts.”― Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs
Commodities


“Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all
a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength,
fortune, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts
obligingly up into the air and falls back to earth as a rustling
shower of money.”― Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs

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OIL DEMAND HIT: @Trafigura co-head of oil trading says consumption may be down ~35m b/d right now due to coronavirus.
Commodities


And with everyone focused on Saudi-Russia-Trump, he notes: “We have no
hope of production cuts matching the demand destruction”

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Margin Call the movie. Well #COVID19 Is precisely that. Its nothing to do with whether it’s justified. Sellers are too many. Storage will soon be full
Commodities


You remember Margin Call the movie. Well #COVID19 Is precisely that.
We are not reverting to a hyper connected World for a long while and
Oil Producers will just have it to lump it. Its nothing to do with
whether it’s justified. Sellers are too many. Storage will soon be
full

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Emerging-market currencies offer the best buying opportunity in more than two decades, according to @RencapMan @RenCap global chief economist @markets
Emerging Markets


Emerging-market currencies offer the best buying opportunity in more
than two decades, according to Charlie Robertson, Renaissance
Capital’s global chief economist.
The London-based strategist said he particularly likes the South
African rand, Mexican peso and Brazilian real, which happen to be the
three hardest-hit major currencies this year.
His bull case is based on historically cheap valuations, funding
support from multilateral lenders and the prospect of a weaker U.S.
dollar.
Meantime, he said crude oil prices could rebound to $45 or $50 per
barrel “medium term,” buoying assets such as Russia’s ruble.
“It’s the best time to buy emerging markets in over 20 years,”
Robertson, 48, said in an interview on Monday. “This is the cheapest
opportunity since the last time everyone hated EM after the Asian
crisis and Russian default.”
Robertson, who earned plaudits for a wager on Romanian bonds in the
late 1990s as well as a bet on South Africa’s rand in 2016, is among a
contingent of contrarians flagging emerging-market bargains, even as
some of the world’s biggest money managers warn of more pain to come.
MSCI’s developing-nation currency gauge hit a three-year low last
month, and Robertson’s top picks in South Africa, Mexico and Brazil
are testing their weakest levels ever.
Those sell-offs may soon reverse as Renaissance Capital expects the
International Monetary Fund and World Bank to backstop many developing
nations, while U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for a cheaper
dollar.
“These are remarkable valuation levels,” Robertson said.

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While the pace of outflows from EM has greatly reduced in past few days, the extent and scale of the #COVID19 shock is unprecedented @econchart
Emerging Markets


The level and speed of outflows in around 90 days of 2020 is
equivalent to the worst yearly figures on record.

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2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
Emerging Markets


China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was
positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend
reversal.
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR
is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.

Frontier Markets

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@MagufuliJP #COVID19 was equivalent to “Satan” and that it would naturally be defeated with prayer, since “Satan cannot reside in the body of Christ.” @VanguardAfrica @fatma_karume
Africa


Yes, as officials in the rest of the world, including our immediate
neighbors, were advocating social distancing, our dear leader was
encouraging mass congregation in churches and mosques as an antidote
to the coronavirus.
And whilst the leaders of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda had been
locked in video conference discussions to determine strategy and next
steps, our president excused himself entirely
In the midst of confusion and fear, we started tweeting, retweeting,
and forwarding a video clip by a local comedian, Masanja Mkadamizija,
in which he takes to the streets of our capital and asks passers-by
whether they fancy a little Covid-19.
Masanja was thereafter ordered to report to the nearest police station
by the district commissioner and forced to apologize for “failing to
take appropriate actions to educate the people.”
As the rest of the world remains in some form of precautionary
lockdown – in line with best public health practices – we in Tanzania
have been told to continue attending places of prayer (as prayer is
our only salvation); not to dare joke about the matter; and to leave
our homes, go to work and to stop being lazy.

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We are concerned about developments at St Augustine’s Hospital. 66 tested positive over the past few days. About 48 of them are staff. @DrZweliMkhize
Africa


The Provincial dept. is engaging the hospital, with a view to closing
parts of the hospital down

In nearly every country in the world, when the virus reaches 100
people the number of cases begins to increase by 35% daily. At that
rate, a country would reach 1,000,000 cases just 31 days after
reaching 100 cases.

https://j.mp/3dDfrcn

I calculate SSA will contract in 2020 COVID-19 and a Rolling Sudden
Stop #COVID19

https://j.mp/2WD1tl0

we are staring into the abyss of a Zombie Apocalypse. COVID-19 and a
Rolling Sudden Stop #COVID19

https://j.mp/2WD1tl0

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2-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA
Africa


The First Issue is whether The #CoronaVirus will infect the Continent.
We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and
multiplicative.what exponential disease propagation looks like in the
real world.
Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ...
then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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If we follow Kagwe's formula & listen to his daily ritual of the numbers that have tested positive, the process will continue upto to the day of judgement @ahmednasirlaw
Kenyan Economy


If we follow Kagwe's formula & listen to his daily ritual of the
numbers that have tested positive, the process will continue upto to
the day of judgement. His process & procedure is like the OCCURRENCE
BOOK in a police station that records incidents of crime in a given
locality

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In the ABSENCE of a SCIENTIFIC MODEL that UNDERPIN Kenya's anti-Coronavirus STRATEGY, Kagwe's daily dose of the number of Kenyans that tested positive is a USELESS RITUALISTIC HYPERBOLE @ahmednasirlaw
Kenyan Economy


"Fellow Kenyans, let us brace ourselves for bad news, let us prepare
for the worst," CS Kagwe, In the ABSENCE of a SCIENTIFIC MODEL that
UNDERPIN Kenya's anti-Coronavirus STRATEGY, Kagwe's daily dose of the
number of Kenyans that tested positive is a USELESS RITUALISTIC
HYPERBOLE

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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