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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 17th of April 2020
 
Afternoon,
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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06-APR-2020 : The Way we live now
Africa


I hear the Breeze, birdsong, Nature in its many forms and the urban
background noise which was once the constant accompaniment to daily
life has entirely retreated. The Nights are dark, the stars are bright
and the neighbiours long gone.
You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years
ago, to what had been there always.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the
River

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While everybody was inside the mother #leopard found an unused house & started raising her three cubs. In Tantol village of Rajasmand. @ParveenKaswan
Africa


Mother is coming in night & in daytime she goes for food. Cubs are
doing fine. So now dept has put staff & cameras to monitor things. VC
Raj FD.

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An old stone house in Uttarakhand | Photo Credit: draco-zlat @the_hindu
Africa


A seven-hour car ride from Kotdwar (or Rishikesh) takes travellers to
this tiny village in Rudraprayag district, Uttarakhand, the starting
point for the trek to the mountain lake Deoriatal.
A long winding path uncoils amidst lush buransh (rhododendron) trees
with arms spread out above our heads, dropping scarlet blossoms at our
feet, laying out a soft red carpet for us to step on.
Soon the village falls behind, reduced to a cluster of toy houses down
in the valley.
After an hour-plus walk intercepted with orange devouring breaks —
popping juicy fruit into our mouths, spitting pips out with the hope
that they sprout young trees — the path climbs up and then down and
suddenly opens up dazzling us with a sparkling pool of blue, flanked
by the towering Himalayas.
Crisp mountain air zips down to our lungs, calf muscles ache from the
climb but the mind is free to roam amidst folk tales and poetry and
thoughts of those that you have loved and lost; or found and loved. If
you haven’t tried it already, I suggest you try it once. Trekking in
the mountains is therapy.
One day soon, after we have overcome the virus that has brought our
world to a standstill, I plan to return. And I hope to find a furry
white-eyebrowed Bhotia dog named Bhulli roaming the hillside. I plan
to pat her head, look into her eyes; and tell her who gave her that
beautiful name.

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Del Rey's California which is the California of our collective unconsciousness, a dream song
Africa


Del Rey’s California—which is the California of our collective
unconsciousness, a dream song—is preoccupied with glamour and love and
fame and anguish and loneliness and hunger.
Even her taken name conjures a golden terrain. “Lana” was inspired by
Lana Turner, a titan of red-lip, Old Hollywood glamour; “Del Rey,”
which translates from Spanish as “of the King,” is a neighborhood on
the west side of Los Angeles.
“Baby, if you wanna leave, come to California, be a freak like me, too.”
California is, of course, where a person goes to change. The state is
a haven in which to unfurl whatever latent identity has been lurking
in your bones.
Those impulses are reflected in—perhaps dictated by—the geography: the
San Andreas Fault, the eight-hundred-and-ten-mile boundary between two
tectonic plates, requires the landscape to periodically rethink
itself, reconfigure.
Then there’s the ocean, slapping against the cliffs of Big Sur,
rolling gently toward Santa Monica—as if to say, loudly, convincingly,
“Last stop! Now or never!” in his essay “Fifteen Takes on California,”
the critic David L. Ulin writes of “our sense of this place as final
landscape, last territory on the continent, where we face ourselves
because there is nowhere to turn.”
Del Rey can be a deft lyricist, gasping bruising little lines, like “I
lost myself when I lost you,” or “Ain’t it strange that you’re not
here with me?”

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06-APR-2020 : The Way we live now.
Africa


It certainly is a new c21st that we find ourselves in. There is a
luminous and Fairy Tale feel to life in quarantine and as you know
most fairy tales have an oftentimes dark and dangerous and unspoken
undercurrent. I sit in my study and its as if my hearing is sharpened.
I hear the Breeze, birdsong, Nature in its many forms and the urban
background noise which was once the constant accompaniment to daily
life has entirely retreated. The Nights are dark, the stars are bright
and the neighbiours long gone.

There is a Passage in V.S Naipaul's A Bend in the River

“Going home at night! It wasn't often that I was on the river at
night. I never liked it. I never felt in control. In the darkness of
river and forest you could be sure only of what you could see — and
even on a moonlight night you couldn't see much. When you made a noise
— dipped a paddle in the water — you heard yourself as though you were
another person. The river and the forest were like presences, and much
more powerful than you. You felt unprotected, an intruder ... You felt
the land taking you back to something that was familiar, something you
had known at some time but had forgotten or ignored, but which was
always there.You felt the land taking you back to what was there a
hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”  ― V.S. Naipaul, A
Bend in the River

Don DeLillo wrote "Everything is barely weeks. Everything is days. We
have minutes to live."

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This isn't a plan. It's barely a powerpoint. @RonaldKlain #COVID19
Law & Politics


-- No provision to ramp up testing
-- No standard on levels of disease before opening ("down" is a
direction, not a level)
-- No protections for workers OR customers

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The virus may be the most dangerous adversary America has ever faced. It's like the US was invaded. Tweeted @balajis #COVID19
Law & Politics


The normal defenses fail. It can't be bombed. Bank accounts can't be
frozen. Unbreakable morale. No supply chain. Lives off the land.
Infinite reinforcements. Fully decentralized.

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This is how Angela Merkel explained the effect of a higher #covid19 infection rate on the country's health system. @benjalvarez1
Law & Politics


This part of today's press conf was great, so I just added English
subtitels for all non-German speakers. #flattenthecurve

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06-APR-2020 : we all wish we had an Angela Merkel because at least then we might have a fighting chance. #COVID19
Law & Politics


our Leaders are saying Don't Panic and I want to say ''look Chum You
are not Merkel and just a few days ago You were telling me its all
cool its just the Flu. Others might take you seriously on what basis I
know not but I don't.''

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No matter how you crunch the numbers, this pandemic is only just getting started @guardian
Law & Politics


There has not been a lot of good news lately. But with the discharge
of Boris Johnson from hospital on Sunday, and statements that the
“peak” strain on the National Health Service would be over the Easter
period, you might be under the impression that the storm is passing,
and the Covid-19 pandemic will soon be a memory.
Fueling this mood are reports from studies of communities already hit
by the pandemic. At long last we are beginning to see the results of
work looking for signs that people have already been infected, through
the presence of antibodies against Sars-CoV-2, the virus which causes
Covid-19.
Some of this data suggests strongly that many infections may have
passed unnoticed, with the only symptoms being mild things such as
loss of the ability to smell and taste, and that as a result, more
people may be immune than had been thought.
Surely this is a sign that communities around the world can breathe a
sigh of relief and start getting back to work?
Unfortunately, it is nothing of the kind.
Talk of the “peak” can be misleading, because it’s not clear whether
you are talking about the Matterhorn or Table Mountain – both have a
summit, but the peak is far more pronounced in one than the other.
In countries such as Italy (unlike Wuhan) the initial surge in the
Covid-19 pandemic has not evaporated quickly.
There are multiple reasons for this but the most important is that the
impact of physical distancing achieved in China has been hard to
accomplish elsewhere, mostly because of the freedoms we correctly
value in liberal democracies.
Worse, there may be a mountain range. In other words, what is
happening right now could be just one peak – not the peak.
And the reason for this is that despite all those positive signs from
antibody testing, the huge majority of the population is not immune.
An editorial in the British Medical Journal has reported data from
China suggesting that as many as four in five cases of Sars-CoV-2
infection could be asymptomatic.
It then goes on to quote people from the Centre for Evidence-Based
Medicine in Oxford, who say that if this is true “What the hell are we
locking down for?” I wish those people would be brave enough to go and
repeat that opinion in an ER in the Bronx right now, in which actual
medicine is going on.
Worrying about the exact rate of asymptomatic infection, or the
currently unknown duration of immunity and a possible “second wave”,
is like politely applauding the performance in a jazz club and
murmuring “nice” while the building is demolished around you and the
piano player gets decapitated.
There have been more than 93,000 cases of Covid-19 identified in the
UK. Let’s round that up and say it is 100,000.
So if the reports from the BMJ editorial are accurate, the actual
number would be that multiplied by five, in which case there would
have already been half a million infections in the UK.
If this really is the peak and we see as many cases on the way down as
on the way up, that would total 1 million infections from the initial
surge in the UK – hopefully all of those people would then be immune.
That would leave about 65 million people in the UK still without immunity.
I am going to be unusually optimistic here, and assume that everyone
who has Covid-19 becomes fully immune (not a given), and that the
virus is towards the less transmissible end of the range of estimates
currently available.
If this is the case, you would need half your population to have been
infected to achieve a level of population immunity that would stop the
epidemic continuing to grow and overwhelming healthcare systems.
As I write the UK is reporting more than 10,000 deaths from Covid-19.
Due to the realities of collecting data during an infectious disease
emergency like this, that is likely to be an underestimate.
Again, if we assume this is the peak and there is the same number on
the way down that’s 20,000 total from the initial surge.
And to get to population immunity you have to multiply that by at
least 30: based on the current data, that’s about 600,000 deaths to
get there, minimum.
Finding a vaccine to offer a complete solution to this pandemic is,
even in the best scenarios, is still a long way off But it is not hard
to see many ways we can slow the pace of the pandemic and save lives.
One of them is greatly improved testing to identify cases and their
contacts, which could be supplemented by clever digital methods to
spot who has been at risk.
Governments around the world are attempting ways to keep jobs and
businesses afloat while lockdowns are in place – but the pressure
remains to swiftly end such shutdowns.
I get that this is going to be a mammoth strain on the economy. But
the deaths of many thousands of people would be too:it is simply not
possible to thoroughly insulate an economy from the impact of a
pandemic of this kind.
Where I live, in Cambridge Massachusetts, I keep hearing sirens. This
crisis is not close to over, quite the reverse. The pandemic is only
just getting started.
• Dr William Hanage is a professor of the evolution and epidemiology
of infectious disease at Harvard

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Tests per 1m population - @Slipcatch
Law & Politics


Switzerland 22 993
Portugal 20 430
Germany 20 629
Italy 18 481
Ireland 18 358
Australia 14 785
Spain 13 918
New Zealand 14 549
Canada 12 393
Russia 10 402
USA 9 845
UK 5 876
SA 1 526
Brazil 296
India 199

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Law & Politics


“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to
worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow
 “There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is
the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”
“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”―
William S. Burroughs
The bats carrying CoV ZC45 were originally found in Yunnan or Zhejiang
province, both of which were more than 900 kilometers away from the
seafood market. Bats were normally found to live in caves and trees.
The probability was very low for the bats to fly to the market.
 WHCDC hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of
which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification
 It is plausible that the virus leaked around and some of them
contaminated the initial patients in this epidemic, though solid
proofs are needed in future study.
The principle investigator participated in a project which generated a
chimeric virus using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, and
reported the potential for human emergence

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0851
Dollar Index 99.918
Japan Yen 107.75
Swiss Franc 0.9692
Pound 1.2469
Aussie 0.6340
India Rupee 76.5365
South Korea Won 1217.77
Brazil Real 5.2342
Egypt Pound 15.747
South Africa Rand 18.74355

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23-SEP-2019 :: Streaming Dreams Non-Linearity Netflix
World Currencies


My Mind kept to an Article I read in 2012 ‘’Annals of Technology
Streaming Dreams’’ by John Seabrook January 16, 2012.
“People went from broad to narrow,” he said, “and we think they will
continue to go that way—spend more and more time in the niches—
because now the distribution lands-cape allows for more narrowness’’.
Netflix is not a US business, it is a global business. The Majority of
Analysts are in the US and in my opinion, these same Analysts have an
international ‘’blind spot’’
Once Investors appreciate that the Story is an international one and
not a US one anymore, we will see the price ramp to fresh all-time
highs.

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For Q1, @GoldmanSachs marked their PE book down by 3 percent @EpsilonTheory
World Currencies


Whenever someone starts talking about suspending mark-to-market
requirements in public markets, I think it's helpful to remember
bullshit like this.

Commodities

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Gold Giant @NewmontCorp Says Metal Could Top $2,000 on Stimulus @markets
Commodities


Gold could top $2,000 an ounce and will remain elevated over the next
five years as the global economy contends with the impact of the
coronavirus pandemic, according to the head of Newmont Corp., the
world’s top miner of the precious metal.
“The level of stimulus globally that’s going into the economy
certainly underpins higher gold prices for the longer term, and I
don’t think that stimulus has stopped yet,” Chief Executive Officer
Tom Palmer said Thursday in a phone interview from Perth.
“You could certainly see scenarios that have it pushing north of $2,000.”
Spot bullion is trading around $1,725 -- close to a more than
seven-year high -- and is forecast by numerous banks to extend gains
as the impact of the virus pushes economies toward recession and
prompts action from central banks.
Those factors are adding to what was already a strong outlook, with
rising demand among middle-class consumers in China and India and
signs of supply constraints, Palmer said.
The metal is likely to trade in a range between $1,500 to $1,750 over
the next two to five years “as the world adjusts to and accommodates
the stimulus that’s coming,” he said. “You certainly might see that
spike out of that from time to time.”
The scale of global monetary stimulus is a key factor that’s spurring
investors to diversify into gold, Bloomberg Intelligence commodity
strategist Mike McGlone said in a note Wednesday. “The foundation for
higher prices has rarely been stronger.”
Newmont rose 1.6% to $59.17 at 9:47 a.m. in New York, bringing its
gain this year to 36%.
While higher prices will strengthen Newmont’s ability to increase
investor returns, the producer is also weighing the potential impact
of any renewed coronavirus outbreak in the northern hemisphere winter.
Newmont has shuttered some operations in Canada, Argentina, Mexico and
Peru in recent weeks to comply with travel curbs or to protect local
communities.
“We’re looking to have conversations with people around capital
allocation and where best that additional cash might go,” Palmer said.
“At this point in time, I would be wanting us to see how the world
comes through and out the other side of this pandemic, and would
probably look to carry a little bit more cash than you otherwise
would.”
The company, which last year completed its mega-merger with Goldcorp
Inc. and forged a Nevada joint venture top competitor Barrick Gold
Corp. after fending off a hostile takeover approach, will also be
cautious on pursuing options for further acquisitions, even if rivals
become distressed as a result of the virus impact.
“If if we saw an opportunity come along that fits our filter then we’d
certainly have a look at it, but it’s not something that we’re getting
distracted by and it’s certainly not something we’re distracting our
teams with,” Palmer said.
Australian-born Palmer, promoted in October to lead Greenwood Village,
Colorado-based Newmont, has been working from his native country --
where his mother and adult children live -- for about the past four
weeks, flying back from his home in the U.S. before travel curbs
tightened.
“It doesn’t really matter whether I’m sitting in the dining room in
Denver or the dining room in Perth -- it just means I’m working some
funny hours,” he said.

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24-FEB-2020 :: The Viral Moment has Arrived #COVID19
Commodities


At this point I would venture Gold is correlated to the #Coronavirus
which is set to turn parabolic and is already non linear and
exponential ~

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22-MAR-2020 :: We are moving from a World of Hyper Connectedness to a World of Quarantine. A complete Quarantine is the only way to vaccine this c21st World of ours #COVID19
Commodities


We are moving from a World of Hyper Connectedness to a World of
Quarantine. A complete Quarantine is the only way to vaccine this
c21st World of ours
#Coronavirus "has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century
pathogen we've been worried about." - @BillGates
The Price of Crude Oil is perfectly correlated to the #COVID19 Sudden Stop

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06-APR-2020 : The Way we live now
Commodities


What I do know is this. Regime implosion is coming to the Oil
Producers and Trump can game the price a little more sure but its a
pointless exercise. Demand has cratered and a return to a hyper
connected 100m barrels per day world is not going to happen for the
foreseeable future. Putin will survive because he prepared for this
moment. Others are as good as terminated.

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“Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetises thought, blurs vision, corrupts.”― Ryszard Kapuscinski, Shah of Shahs
Commodities


“Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all
a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength,
fortune, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts
obligingly up into the air and falls back to earth as a rustling
shower of money.”― Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs

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OIL DEMAND HIT: @Trafigura co-head of oil trading says consumption may be down ~35m b/d right now due to coronavirus.
Commodities


And with everyone focused on Saudi-Russia-Trump, he notes: “We have no
hope of production cuts matching the demand destruction”

Emerging Markets

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State Bank of Pakistan cut its key target rate by 200 basis points to 9% in an unscheduled meeting, according to a statement from the central bank. That’s the lowest since November, 2018 ⁦⁦@FaseehMangi @business
Emerging Markets


Pakistan’s coronavirus infections increased by 414 on Thursday to
about 6,900. It also reported 128 deaths from the disease. Pakistan
will also get temporary relief from repaying International Monetary
Fund’s debt, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

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Coronavirus cases in Africa could shoot up from thousands now to 10 million within three to six months according to very provisional modelling, a (WHO) official said @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Coronavirus cases in Africa could shoot up from thousands now to 10
million within three to six months according to very provisional
modelling, a regional World Health Organization (WHO) official said on
Thursday.
But Michel Yao, head of emergency operations for WHO Africa, said that
was a tentative projection which could change and noted worst-case
predictions for the Ebola outbreak had not come true because people
changed behaviour in time.
“This is still to be fine-tuned,” he told a media teleconference.
“It’s difficult to make a long-term estimation because the context
changes too much and also public health measures when they are fully
implemented, they can actually have an impact.”
The world’s poorest continent has seen more than 17,000 confirmed
cases of the COVID-19 disease and about 900 deaths so far - relatively
little compared to some other regions.
But there are fears that could balloon and overwhelm shaky health services.
“We are concerned that the virus continues to spread geographically,
within countries,” said Matshidiso Moeti, director for WHO’s Africa
region, which comprises 46 sub-Saharan nations and Algeria.
“The numbers continue to increase every day.”
Infections in South Africa, which has the highest number of cases,
have slowed after it began a strict lockdown, but other nations - like
Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Algeria - have
seen higher than average fatalities.
The WHO is working with authorities there to improve patient care and
reduce fatalities, Moeti said.

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Africa to roll out more than 1 million coronavirus tests @AP
Africa


More than 1 million coronavirus tests will be rolled out starting next
week in Africa to address the “big gap” in assessing the true number
of cases on the continent, the head of the African Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention said Thursday.
“Maybe 15 million tests” will be required in Africa over the next
three months, John Nkengasong said.
The new initiative to dramatically accelerate testing comes as the
continent of 1.3 billion people braces for its turn in the pandemic
that has rolled from China to Europe and the U.S. and now beyond.
Experts have said Africa is weeks behind Europe and the U.S. but the
rise in cases has looked alarmingly similar.
Africa has suffered in the global race to obtain testing kits and
other badly needed medical equipment.
While the number of virus cases across the continent was above 17,000
on Thursday, health officials have said the testing shortage means
more are out there.
South Africa, the most assertive African nation in testing, has
carried out perhaps 80,000 tests so far, Nkengasong said.
He also expressed concern for the U.S. decision to cut funding for the
World Health Organization, saying it “absolutely will affect (African
Union) member states’ ability to receive support” from the U.N.
agency.
The U.S. is the top donor to the WHO, but President Donald Trump has
complained about alleged mismanagement, to widespread objections.
The WHO’s regional chief for Africa, Matshidiso Moeti, said in a
separate briefing that for the current biennium, or two years, the
region has received almost $50 million from the U.S.
Of the U.S. decision, she said the impact will be significant and “we
are very much hoping it will be rethought.”
Overall, the WHO’s 47-country sub-Saharan Africa region will need
about $300 million over the next six months to support what the
countries are doing to combat the virus, she said.
Any reduction in support for African nations will be painful as the
continent has some of the world’s weakest health systems.
Ten African nations have no ventilators at all to treat virus patients
who need respiratory support, the Africa CDC chief said, but
arrangements are being made to deliver some recently donated by the
Jack Ma Foundation.
Nkengasong did not name the 10 countries.
He again called for solidarity inside and outside Africa in combating
the virus, saying that “COVID-19 will not be defeated anywhere on the
continent until it is defeated everywhere on the continent.”
And he would not get into specific projections on how widely the virus
could spread in Africa, saying there are many factors in play and “we
don’t know what we don’t know.”
For most people, the coronavirus causes mild to moderate symptoms such
as fever and cough. But for some, especially older adults and those
with other health problems, it can cause pneumonia and death.
Millions of low-income people across Africa are struggling as
countries begin to extend weeks-long lockdowns to slow the virus’
spread.
Nkengasong acknowledged the economic pain the lockdowns and other
measures create but said “the long-term gains are incomparable” for
the continent.
“We find ourselves between a hard place and a rock” in balancing the
health and economic needs, he said.
He also made a point of addressing one widespread concern — the
alleged abuse of lockdown powers by some countries’ security forces.
Human rights groups have said police in some cases have beaten, even
killed, people accused of defying lockdowns or curfews.
“Security forces should be trained in non-violent methods in
controlling the population,” Nkengasong said.

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2-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA
Africa


The First Issue is whether The #CoronaVirus will infect the Continent.
We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and
multiplicative.what exponential disease propagation looks like in the
real world.
Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ...
then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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@IMFNews SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA COVID-19: An Unprecedented Threat to Development #WEO
Africa


Growth in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 is projected at –1.6 percent, the
lowest level on record
The policy priority is to ramp up health capacity and spending to save
lives and contain the virus outbreak.
People first. The immediate priority is for countries to do whatever
it takes to ramp up public health expenditures to contain the virus
outbreak, regardless of fiscal space and debt positions.
Economic forecasts at this juncture are subject to higher-than-usual
degrees of uncertainty. Subject to the decisive actions laid out
above, growth in the region is projected to recover in 2021 to about
the 4 percent mark.
However, the depth of the slowdown in 2020 and the speed of recovery
will depend on several factors, including how the pandemic interacts
with weak local health systems, the effectiveness of national
containment efforts, and the strength of support from the
international community.
The sharp decline in commodity prices, especially oil, is set to
compound these effects, exacerbating challenges in some of the
region’s largest resource-intensive economies, notably Angola and
Nigeria.
The pandemic is reaching the shores of the continent when budgetary
space to absorb the effects of the shocks is limited in most
countries, thus complicating the appropriate policy response.
For countries facing sudden reversals of external financing and a
resulting imminent crisis, temporary capital flow management measures
could be considered as part of a wider policy package.
Among the sub- Saharan African region’s key trading partners, the euro
area is expected to contract (from 1.2 percent in 2019 to −7.5 percent
in 2020), and growth in China is to slow considerably (from 6.1
percent to 1.2 percent).
Financial markets in sub-Saharan Africa have also come under pressure:
sovereign spreads in the region have increased by about 700 basis
points since February 2020, reaching all-time highs, with the largest
rise seen in oil exporters (Figure 1.2);
bond issuances have stopped, and large capital outflows have also been
recorded from the region’s frontier and emerging markets (Figure 1.3).
Fmigulraet1iv.3e. PSoubrt-fSoalihoarFalnowAsfrican Frontier and
Emerging Markets: Cumulative Portfolio Flows
These shocks are compounding an already challenging economic situation
in the region.
Economic activity in resource-intensive countries has been tepid in
recent years because most countries were still adjusting to the 2014
commodity shock.
At the same time, the high growth in non-resource-intensive countries
has often been supported by public sector investment and accompanied
by elevated debt and external vulnerabilities.
In addition, the security situation in the Sahel remains difficult,
and the continent has been battered by multiple weather-related
shocks, including cyclones, droughts in southern and eastern Africa
(especially in Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe), and severe locust
swarms (particularly in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda).
In Nigeria, the largest economy in the region, GDP is expected to
contract by −3.4 percent, mainly reflecting the large drop in oil
prices and the impact of containment and mitigation measures on
economic activity.
In South Africa, disruptions caused by containment and mitigation
measures and lower external demand are expected to compound existing
structural constraints, with growth expected to fall from 0.2 percent
in 2019 to −5.8 percent in 2020.
• Non-resource-intensive countries are expected to see growth decline
from 6.2 percent to 2.0 percent.
Within this group, tourism- dependent countries (Cabo Verde, Comoros,
The Gambia, Mauritius, São Tomé and Príncipe, Seychelles) are expected
to experience a severe downturn, with real GDP contracting by −5.1
percent in 2020 (Figure 1.9) after growing by an average of 3.9
percent in 2019.
The evolution of debt levels will depend on a number of factors that
are difficult to predict. Additional fiscal stimulus, realization of
contingent liabilities, lower than expected growth, and currency
depreciation caused by external pressures can all affect debt dynamics
significantly.
Current baseline projection suggests that, on (simple) average, debt
levels will rise temporarily from 58 percent in 2019 to 64 percent in
2020 (compared with a projected decline to 56 percent in the October
2019 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa) but decline
thereafter as fiscal adjustment plans are implemented (Figure 1.13).
This picture masks considerable heterogeneity because several
countries are expected to see increases in debt levels ranging from 10
percent of GDP to 25 percent of GDP,
Figure 1.15. Sub-Saharan Africa: Eurobond Issuances
Figure 1.16. Sub-Saharan Africa: Exchange Rates (US$ to national currency)

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22-MAR-2020 :: SSA Countries with no exception that I can think off have gorged on borrowing and balance sheets are maxed out. #COVID19
Africa


SSA Countries with no exception that I can think off have gorged on
borrowing and balance sheets are maxed out.
Africa’s sovereign issuance in the Eurobond markets totaled $53bn in
2018 and 2019 and total outstanding debt topped $100bn last year.

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Here are the #IMF's GDP-growth projections for sub-Saharan Africa in 2020. @PaulWallace123
Africa


North to South East to West it will all print negative FY 2020 GDP

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@FitchRatings has downgraded Zambia to 'CC' from 'CCC'.
Africa


The downgrade reflects Fitch's view that the shock from #COVID19 has
exacerbated Zambia's already constrained external liquidity,
increasing the likelihood of a default event.
Zambia faces external debt service payments, including principal and
interest, totalling $1.5bn in 2020; this is approximately 115% of
official gross international reserves at end-January 2020.
forecasts GDP growth to contract by 0.7% in 2020. Zambia's growth was
already slowing due to a combination of lower copper production, power
shortages caused by seasonal droughts, and spotty agricultural
production.

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09-DEC-2019 Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa


They are still popping Quaaludes in Lusaka.

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#Zambia should be one the 1st countries to reach out for emergency funding in this crisis, not last. IMF forecast yesterday Zambia’s public debt already more than double sub-Saharan African average @emsovdebt
Africa


#Zambia should be one the 1st countries to reach out for emergency
funding in this crisis, not last. Both #Rwanda #Senegal have already
secured it. IMF forecast yesterday Zambia’s public debt already more
than double sub-Saharan African average

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2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
Africa


This Phenomenon was positive for the last two decades but has now
undergone a Trend reversal.
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc.
The ZAR is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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