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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 23rd of June 2020

World Of Finance

Equity Markets are being supported by Rampant Money Printing, Low but obviously managed interest rates which is outweighing what will be a sharp and entrenched EPS slow down world wide.

Consensus estimates for a 2021 massive earnings recovery seem too aggressive. @dlacalle_ia

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The Real Economy is however a Great Depression Redux. Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
World Of Finance

Just weeks after the stock market crashed in 1929, President Herbert Hoover assured the country that things were already “back to normal,” Liaquat Ahamed writes in Lords of Finance World Of Finance

Five months later, in March 1930, Hoover said the worst would be over “during the next 60 days.”

When that period ended, he said, “We have passed the worst.”

Eventually, Ahamed writes, “when the facts refused to obey Hoover’s forecasts, he started to make them up.”

Government agencies were pressed to issue false data. Officials resigned rather than do so, including the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And we all know how that turned out: The Great Depression.

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America Is on the Road to Relapse Not Recovery @bopinion @nfergus
U.S. Economy

America is on the road. But is it on the road to economic recovery or a pandemic relapse?
The best title for this tale was devised by my Hoover Institution colleague, the economist John Cochrane. He called it “The Dumb Reopening.”
 Among European countries, Germany and Greece have also successfully adopted these methods, which ensure that any new outbreaks of Covid-19 can quickly be detected, so-called super-spreaders isolated, their recent contacts swiftly traced and tested, and the outbreaks snuffed out.
A dumb reopening eschews all such precautionary measures. So is that really what the U.S. is doing? The answer is pretty much yes
When I say, “America is on the road,” I can say it with conviction because mobility data generated by Google, Apple and less well-known tech players such as SafeGraph show it.In the trough of pandemic panic, between mid-March and mid-April, Apple’s Mobility Trends (which track changes in routing requests to Apple Maps since Jan. 13) pointed to declines in driving and walking of around 60%The big story is retail and recreation: down 49% nationwide at the trough (April 5), but now down just 16%.
Mr. Market is acting as if Covid-19 is over

Spence and his co-author Chen Long warn that “the U.S. is heading for a situation comparable to the Great Depression.” 

They are in good company: Hardly any leading academic economist believes in the V-shaped recovery story, where output snaps back as far and as fast as it has fallen.

The alternative, and I suspect more likely, scenario is that Americans carry on getting back to normal and tacitly accept further excess mortality as just a cost of doing business until a vaccine is available. 

That would be bad news for the significant number of Americans who, because of their age and/or pre-existing health problems such as obesity, hypertension or kidney disease, are potentially at serious risk from Covid-19. But it would not be without precedent.

Although many commentators and scholars have looked back to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic for insights into our current predicament, it seems clear by now that SARS-CoV-2 is not as deadly a virus as H1N1 was just over a century ago. 

The president asked Congress for a mere $2.5 million (around 0.0005% of 1957 GDP) to support the Public Health Service in case of an epidemic.

True, there was a recession that year, but it had little if anything to do with the pandemic. 

Eisenhower’s job approval rating deteriorated, declining from about 80% to 50% between January 1957 and March 1958, and his Republican Party sustained severe losses in the 1958 midterms, but no serious historian of the period would attribute these setbacks to the pandemic.

The national mood of insouciance in the face of a new and contagious disease might be summed up in the phrase coined the year before by Mad magazine’s second editor, Al Feldstein: “What, Me Worry?” Huey “Piano” Smith and His Clowns even had a minor hit with “Rockin’ Pneumonia and the Boogie Woogie Flu.”

We are, in short, hitting the road as if it was 1957 again, implicitly heading for herd immunity — and substantially more excess deaths — until a vaccine turns up.

As it happens, Kerouac’s “On the Road” was first published in 1957. 

The book’s second line is: “I had just gotten over a serious illness that I won’t bother to talk about.” 

By the end of this year, the way things are going, several million Americans will be able to say those same words about Covid-19. Sadly, roughly 200,000 won’t be able to.

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Interessante é que em Kinshasa, a estátua do Leopoldo II segue de pé. @iumtres
Law & Politics

I went to Westminster School and Parliament Square is in fact a place I know well and the scenes that have unfolded of late around the Winston Churchill Statue therefore were telescoped close and somehow personal and immediate.

And because we know exist in a stream of consciousness World which is constantly accelerating at a dizzying speed, My Mind back flipped to another toppling that of a Statue of Saddam Hussein in Firdos Square in Baghdad in 2003.

McCoy turned to Remy Ourdan, a reporter for Le Monde. "Where is this damn Palestine Hotel?" he asked. Ourdan indicated the road to take.

Not far away, Captain Bryan Lewis, the leader of McCoy's tank company, spotted a car with "TV" scrawled on its side and shouted from his turret, "Is this the way to the Palestine?"

A few minutes after the toppling, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told reporters,

''The scenes of free Iraqis celebrating in the streets, riding American tanks, tearing down the statues of Saddam Hussein in the center of Baghdad are breathtaking. Watching them, one cannot help but think of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Iron Curtain''

Propaganda has been a staple of warfare for ages, but the notion of creating events on the battlefield, as opposed to repackaging real ones after the fact, is a modern development. 

It expresses a media theory developed by, among others, Walter Lippmann, who after the First World War identified the components of wartime mythmaking as "the casual fact, the creative imagination, the will to believe, and out of these three elements, a counterfeit of reality." 

As he put it, "Men respond as powerfully to fictions as they do to realities [and] in many cases they help to create the very fictions to which they respond." 

In the 1960s, Daniel J. Boorstin identified a new category of media spectacle that he called "pseudo-events," which were created to be reported on. 

However, it was later learned that the scene was closely managed by a US Colonel and PSYOP (Psychological Operations) team who cordoned off the square, allowed a relatively small group of Iraqi émigrés to gather around the statue, and then used armored vehicles and steel cables to pull the statue down for the cheering Iraqi group (Fahmy, 2007; Griffin, 2008)

Paul Virilio in his Book City of Panic wrote

The Pentagon is eager to exploit the audiovisual impact of real-time mass communication (remember Saddam's statue being toppled?) City of Panic by Paul Virilio

Our minds are literally besieged by these Weapons of Mass Communication (as he calls them), creating a "panic-driven tele-reality" and resulting in an odd kind of "emotional synchronisation ... in which terror must be instantaneously felt by all ... on the scale of a global terrorism"

Virilio maintains that the global village has created hyperterrorism as its "integral accident" (just as derailment is the integral accident of a train). 

The Pentagon is (remember Saddam's statue being toppled?), but unfortunately so are the terrorists. 

The same impulse drives contemporary art, says Virilio, and he often returns to Stockhausen's incendiary remark that 9/11 was "the greatest work of art ever".

And then I recalled

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The Bamiyan Statues @ramonpradosan
Law & Politics

‘’You remember those twin statues of the Buddha that I told you about? Carved out of a mountain in Afghanistan, that got dynamited by the Taliban back in the spring? Notice anything familiar?" Thomas Pynchon

"Twin Buddhas, twin towers, interesting coincidence, so what." "The Trade Center towers were religious too. They stood for what this country worships above everything else, the market, always the holy fuxxing market." [Thomas Pynchon]

And it all left me wondering Who exactly is controlling the Console?

Is this Statue toppling business a Gladwellian and metastatic type Event?

I thought to myself This all has the Imprimatur of the "political technologist of all of Rus." And non linear War Specialist Vladislav Surkov.

Putin's system was also ripe for export, Mr Surkov added. Foreign governments were already paying close attention, since the Russian "political algorithm" had long predicted the volatility now seen in western democracies.

With a flourish he sponsored lavish arts festivals for the most provocative modern artists in Moscow, then supported Orthodox fundamentalists, dressed all in black and carrying crosses, who in turn attacked the modern-art exhibitions. @TheAtlantic

"It was the first non-linear war," writes Surkov in a new short story, "Without Sky," published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the "fifth world war":

"My portfolio at the @KremlinRussia_E and in government has included ideology, media, political parties, religion, modernization, innovation, foreign relations, and ..." - here he pauses and smiles - "modern art."

A ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is undefinable Adam Curtis

The underlying aim, Surkov says, is not to win the war, but to use the conflict to create a constant state of destabilised perception, in order to manage and control

a decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.

SolarEclipse2020 was the exact alignment of the Earth, Moon and Sun and was visible for only 38 seconds arrived on the longest day of the year - the summer solstice

It certainly feels like the Virus has accelerated The World and that the Centre cannot hold.

President Trump does not have the mental bandwidth – His is a narrow, transactional Game.

The Pandemic and Political Order @ForeignAffairs @FukuyamaFrancis

Another reason for pessimism is that the positive scenarios assume some sort of rational public discourse and social learning. Yet the link between technocratic expertise and public policy is weaker today than in the past, when elites held more power.

The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble.

That is hardly an ideal environment for constructive, collective self-examination, and some polities may remain irrational longer than they can remain solvent

If You were a betting Man You might well agree with

“Wolf Warrior painter” Wuheqilin

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US is back reporting more that 30,000 daily cases @TetotRemi

The Battlespace was not the Battlefield IT WAS THE INFORMATION BATTLESPACE

 US army war college quarterly 1997. The US officer assigned to the deputy chief of staff (Intelligence), charged with defining the future of warfare, wrote

“One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the conflict between information masters and information victims.”

This information warfare will not be couched in the rationale of geopolitics, the author suggests, but will be “spawned” - like any Hollywood drama - out of raw emotions. “Hatred, jealousy, and greed - emotions, rather than strategy - will set the terms of [information warfare] struggles”.

Ambassador John Bolton was always a Hard Power Specialist and last week gave us some deep insights

“He stressed the importance of farmers, and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome. I would print Trump’s exact words but the government’s prepublication review process has decided otherwise.”

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26-AUG-2019 :: What is also clear is that China has been very precise and taking aim at the Farm Economy in particular is designed to strike at Trump's soft underbelly
Law & Politics

At the same meeting, Xi also defended China’s construction of camps housing as many as 1 million Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang — and Trump signaled his approval.

“According to our interpreter,” Bolton writes, “Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do.”

What @AmbJohnBolton is telling me is Xi played @POTUS all the way especially in the matter of #COVID19

Mr. Trump, he writes, was “pleading with Xi to ensure he’d win.” Mr. Bolton said that Mr. Trump “stressed the importance of farmers, and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome.” @nytimes

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05-MAR-2018 :: China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjian
Law & Politics

In one May 2019 phone call, for example, Russian President Vladimir Putin compared Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó to 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Clinton, part of what Bolton terms a “brilliant display of Soviet style propaganda” to shore up support for Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Putin’s claims, Bolton writes, “largely persuaded Trump.”

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05-DEC-2016:: Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are his information victims.
Law & Politics

@MarthaRaddatz “How would you describe Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin?” @ABC John Bolton: “I think Putin thinks he can play him like a fiddle.”

“What if we have a real crisis like 9/11 with the way he makes decisions?” Kelly is quoted as asking at one point @washingtonpost

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Revellers gather at Stonehenge near Salisbury in 2015 to celebrate the longest day of the year. Photo: @AP @SCMPNews

Archaeologists said on Monday that they have discovered a major prehistoric monument under the earth near Stonehenge that could shed new light on the origins of the mystical stone circle in southwestern England.

Experts from a group of British universities led by the University of Bradford say the site consists of at least 20 huge shafts, more than 10 metres in diameter and 5 metres deep, forming a circle more than 2 kilometres in diameter.

The new find is at Durrington Walls, the site of a Neolithic village about 2 kilometres from Stonehenge,

Researchers say the shafts appear to have been dug around 4,500 years ago, and could mark the boundary of a sacred area or precinct around a circular monument known as the Durrington Walls henge.

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@BorisJohnson and @theresa_may ignored claims Russia had 'likely hold' over @realDonaldTrump ex-spy alleges @guardian
Law & Politics

“A prospective trade deal should never be allowed to eclipse considerations of national security.”

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05-DEC-2016:: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics

Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are his information victims.

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Exclusive: Trump held off on Xinjiang sanctions for China trade deal @axios
International Trade

In an Oval Office interview on Friday afternoon, President Trump told me that he held off on imposing Treasury sanctions against Chinese officials involved with the Xinjiang mass detention camps because doing so would have interfered with his trade deal with Beijing.

 Trump replied, "Well, we were in the middle of a major trade deal."

"And I made a great deal, $250 billion potentially worth of purchases. And by the way, they're buying a lot, you probably have seen."

Congress passed the Global Magnitsky Act in 2016 — a law designed to counter human rights violations like those being committed in Xinjiang, where witnesses say the Chinese government imprisons, brainwashes, and tortures ethnic and religious minorities.
In his book, John Bolton writes that Trump gave President Xi a green light to continue with the Xinjiang camps — an allegation Trump denies.
"No, not at all," Trump said. "What I told everybody we deal with — not just President Xi — I want them to do business with this country. I want them to do a lot more business with this country."

"By the way, what's good for the country is good for me," Trump continued. "What's good for the country is also good for an election."

"But I don't go around saying, 'Oh, help me with my election.' Why would I say that?"

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R_14_14 =1.20 ▲ @oli3be


CAC=Confirmed Active Cases=Confirmed Cases-Recovered-Deaths

d1: Average

d2 : Contagiousness


< 1 : CAC ▼

> 1 & ► : CAC ▲▲ EXPONENTIAL

> 1 & ▲ : CAC ▲▲▲ more than expo

> 1 & ▼ : CAC ▲ not expo

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#COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

―They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.

―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.

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02-DEC-2019 :: The politics of ethnocratic Nationalism are a bust.
Law & Politics

In Shakespeare’s Henry VI, Henry proclaims: “Plataginet, I will; and like thee, Nero, Play on the lute, beholding the towns burn.”

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1291

Dollar Index 96.899

Japan Yen 107.15

Swiss Franc 0.9456

Pound 1.2488

Aussie 0.6922

India Rupee 75.6945

South Korea Won 1208.20

Brazil Real 5.2537

Egypt Pound 16.1775

South Africa Rand 17.267

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Buyer Beware: Oil Stockpiles Are Enormous @markets.
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Remember negative oil prices and the fear that every storage tank on the planet would get filled to the brim? That seems a long time ago, with West Texas Intermediate crude now hitting $40 a barrel and the buildup of stockpiles poised to go into reverse. In the final quarter of next year it predicts global oil demand will still be running about 2 million barrels a day below pre-pandemic levels, and more than 4% below where it might reasonably have been expected to be in the absence of the crisis.Yes, the IEA revised its second-quarter global oil demand estimate up by what, in normal times, would be a huge 2.1 million barrels a day, but it still sees a year-on-year decline of close to 18 million barrels, or 18%. 

Enough of the black stuff has gone into storage tanks, caverns and ships over the past six months to drive every heavy truck in the U.S. around the world five times — if it could all be turned into diesel fuel.

By the end of this month, global stockpiles are expected to be about 2.7 billion barrels above where they were at the end of 2013. 

That’s nearly four times the excess seen after the first shale boom in early 2017, when oil prices collapsed toward $25 a barrel.

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10-MAY-2020 :: ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus.

In Brazil we have a toxic mix of a „‟Voodoo‟‟ President @jairbolsonaro and a runaway #COVID19

Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer

“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian

Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative and COVID19 has „‟escape velocity‟‟ in Brazil.

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A milestone for African democratic politics today as Malawians vote in the first ever contested rerun of a presidential election in the region #MalawiDecides2020 @jsphctrl
Law & Politics

A milestone for African democratic politics today as Malawians vote in the first ever contested rerun of a presidential election in the region, and only the second rerun overall, after a dramatic year in defence of democracy. #MalawiDecides2020

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“La foule” par Nicolas Ondongo. @CelestinMonga
Law & Politics

Le pouvoir des dictateurs est aussi fragile que celui des banquiers: si tous les clients ou citoyens exigent en même temps leurs dépôts ou leurs droits, c’est la chute. Force imparable du collectif, vacuité des égos et des aventures individuelles.

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent

The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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Ebola virus is a microscopic parasite that replicates inside the cells of a host. @NewYorker

Ebola can overwhelm the human immune system in a matter of days. Symptoms typically include vomiting, diarrhea, coughing, rash, dementia, hemorrhages, and hiccups. Death occurs like the slamming of a door, when the patient abruptly goes into shock.

An Ebola particle is a very small, filament-shaped object, made of six different structural proteins

Ebola’s genetic code, or genome, is contained in a strand of ribonucleic acid, or RNA, that is coiled tightly in the core of the particle. 

The genome, which has some nineteen thousand letters in it, holds the master designs of Ebola’s proteins.

RNA viruses—which range from Ebola to measles and influenza— tend to produce errors, or mutations, in their code when they copy themselves. 

Most mutations are either bad for the virus or have no effect on it. Every now and then, however, a virus gets a mutation that benefits it. 

In fact, the production of errors during copying plays an important role in the long-term survival of viruses. 

As time goes by and the virus makes inaccurate copies of itself, slightly different varieties of the virus arise. 

The different varieties are called lineages.  They can be imagined as moths of the same species whose wings are slightly different colors. Some wing colors help a moth camouflage itself more effectively, be eaten less often by predators, and survive longer than moths of other colors. 

Those types of moths go on to reproduce successfully, while moths of other colors eventually die out, until the population of moths has changed color entirely. This is the process of evolution.

Considered as a life-form, the Kivu Ebola isn’t a single organism but, rather, an immense swarm of particles that jumps from victim to victim

Each particle in the swarm possesses a biological drive to copy itself. As the particles copy themselves, they compete with all the other particles for survival. Ebola particles copy themselves every eighteen hours. 

This is the generation time of the virus—the time it takes for a particle of Ebola to get inside a human cell and potentially create thousands of identical copies of itself in the cell
An infected person’s bodily fluids are lethally infectious, because they are filled with Ebola particles. If some of those particles get into new people, the virus spreads.

“From the outset, I was intrigued by the large number of mutations we found,” Sabeti told me.

 Makona Ebola quickly developed into several basic varieties. Then, in late May, 2014, one of the lineages took off like a wildfire and spread rapidly all over Sierra Leone and Liberia. This lineage is named the A82V Makona Variant of Ebola. For simplicity, I’ll call it the Makona mutant. 

The majority of patients in the epidemic were infected with the Makona mutant, including all eleven individuals in the United States. 

Meanwhile, the other lineages of Ebola died out. It seemed that the Makona mutant had somehow beaten them in a contest for survival.

Sabeti and other research groups noted that the change in the code of the Makona mutant happened in a single letter, which was part of the genetic recipe that causes the Ebola particle to be covered in roughly three hundred soft, squishy knobs. 

The knobs, called glycoproteins, are essential for the particle’s survival; they help it stick to cells and get inside cells, where it can reproduce

The team found that the knobs on the Makona mutant were four to five times better at invading human cells than those on the earlier strain of Makona

The Makona mutant stuck to human cells like a magnet, and the knobs seemed able to open a cell’s outer membrane, with the ease of a slide opening the teeth of a zipper, to allow the virus inside

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We have a new Ebola epidemic in Mbandaka,” Longondo told reporters.

The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976, when the virus erupted simultaneously in fifty-five villages near the Ebola River. 

 It killed eighty- eight per cent of the people it infected. 

Apart from rabies and the human immunodeficiency virus, H.I.V., which causes aids, this was the highest rate of mortality that has been recorded for a human virus. 

Ebola was spread mainly among family members, through contact with bodily fluids and blood. 

Many of the people in Africa who came down with Ebola had handled Ebola-infected cadavers. 

It seems that one of Ebola’s paths wends to the living from the dead.

These remain precarious times.

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@KeEquityBank Group Holdings Plc - Public Notice H/T @tradingroomke
N.S.E General

Equity Group and Atlas Mara have mutually agreed to discontinue discussions that would have made the Kenyan lender taking over some of its business units in Rwanda, Zambia, Tanzania and Mozambique. 

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@KeEquityBank Group share price data
N.S.E General

Price: 35.65 Market Capitalization: $1.266b EPS: 5.93 PE: 6.012

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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June 2020

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