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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 26th of June 2020

The stock market is running on fumes. @crescatkevin
World Of Finance

What recovery?

The next four quarters' earnings estimates are rebounding like a lead balloon. 

The stock market is running on fumes.

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08-JUN-2020 :: Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom.
World Of Finance

“Anybody can be decisive during a panic; it takes a strong man to act during a boom.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

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India and China deployed in 'large numbers' in border showdown: foreign ministry @AFP
Law & Politics

India acknowledged for the first time Thursday that it has matched China in massing troops at their contested Himalayan border region after a deadly clash this month.

"A continuation of the current situation would only vitiate the atmosphere for the development of the relationship."

China has accused Indian forces of causing the June 15 battle by attacking its troops.

Beijing has also called on India "to immediately stop all infringing and provocative actions."

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"It was the year 2020'' @DavidBCollum
World Of Finance

"It was the year 2020. Antiracist activists tore down statues of Abe Lincoln. The leading Presidential candidate was suffering from dementia. The Federal Reserve was monetizing junk corporate bonds. The economy had been destroyed by covid-19. Equities were at all-time highs."

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China is reshaping the global news landscape and weakening the Fourth Estate @guardian
Law & Politics

But during our research for the International Federation of Journalists, we found that Beijing is increasingly outsourcing the storytelling to foreign journalists, who often end up amplifying its messages in their own languages in the pages of their own news outlets.

At one roundtable discussion in Myanmar, all journalists present had been on all-expenses paid tours to China. One had been nine times. 

While some were bowled over by China’s modernity and technological developments, others said they’d signed agreements promising not to write critical reports. 
However, our analysis suggests that Beijing is targeting journalists from developing countries with repressive, ineffective governments, in particular those who have signed up to its massive global infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative. 

Under the title of “Silk Road Celebrity China Tours”, Beijing has even taken Muslim journalists to visit the re-education camps where it’s holding as many as 1 million Uighurs. 

“They all wrote about how beautiful [Xinjiang is] or certain stories praising China for cracking down on terrorists,” one Filipino journalist remarked.This spans the whole gamut from a couple of computers and tape recorders donated to one journalism union in tiny Guinea-Bissau, all the way up to a state-of-the-art studio built with Chinese funding for the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation
In India, the UC News browser – which is in Hindi and 15 other local languages – has 50 million users. 

Despite clashes on the border, it is hard to find a single story on China-India border tensions.

Such media ventures risk becoming chokeholds on global news delivery systems, potentially denying other narratives outside Beijing’s favoured version while embedding Chinese influence in media ecosystems far outside its borders. 

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Political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics

Another reason for pessimism is that the positive scenarios assume some sort of rational public discourse and social learning. 

Yet the link between technocratic expertise and public policy is weaker today than in the past, when elites held more power.

The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble.

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R_14_14 (World) = 1.19 @oli3be


CAC=Confirmed Active Cases=Confirmed Cases-Recovered-Deaths

d1: Average

d2 : Contagiousness


< 1 : CAC ▼

> 1 & ► : CAC ▲▲ EXPONENTIAL

> 1 & ▲ : CAC ▲▲▲ more than expo

> 1 & ▼ : CAC ▲ not expo

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It took the world about 100 days to go from 0 cases to 1 million detected cases. Then: @DrTomFrieden

1 to 2 mil: 12 days

2 to 3 mil: 13 days

3 to 4 mil: 12 days

4 to 5 mil: 11 days

5  to 6 mil: 10 days

6 to 7 mil: 8 days

7 to 8 mil: 8 days

8 to 9 mil: 6 days

The pandemic is accelerating.

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The Viral Moment #COVID19
World Of Finance

Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.

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#COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

―They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.

―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.

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Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher

Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher,

vanity of vanities! All is vanity.

3 What does man gain by all the toil

at which he toils under the sun?

4 A generation goes, and a generation comes,

but the earth remains forever.

5 The sun rises, and the sun goes down,

and hastens[b] to the place where it rises.

6 The wind blows to the south

and goes around to the north;

around and around goes the wind,

and on its circuits the wind returns.

7 All streams run to the sea,

but the sea is not full;

to the place where the streams flow,

there they flow again.

8 All things are full of weariness;

a man cannot utter it;

the eye is not satisfied with seeing,

nor the ear filled with hearing.

9 What has been is what will be,

and what has been done is what will be done,

and there is nothing new under the sun.

10 Is there a thing of which it is said,

“See, this is new”?

It has been already

in the ages before us.

11 There is no remembrance of former things,[c]

nor will there be any remembrance

of later things[d] yet to be

among those who come after.

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Concern is growing over possible anthroponosis of SARS-CoV-2 @Rossana38510044

Concern is growing over possible anthroponosis of SARS-CoV-2, especially in light of its recent discovery and spread on  mink  farms  in  the  Netherlands  and  in  Spain,  with  the  suggestion  that  there  was  transmission  back  to  humans.

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1226

Dollar Index 97.405

Japan Yen 106.95

Swiss Franc 0.9477

Pound 1.2413

Aussie 0.6884

India Rupee 75.555

South Korea Won 1199.19

Brazil Real 5.3614

Egypt Pound 16.1577

South Africa Rand 17.20

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Darkened Duty-Free Shops Are Fueling a Worldwide Chocolate Glut @markets
Retail & Manufacturing

When commodity analyst Judy Ganes spent 36 hours flying home from a business trip to Asia, it was what she didn’t see that stuck with her.

In the four airports she passed through, Ganes found almost no food courts or duty-free shops open for business. 

No snow globes. No t-shirts. No special liquor bottles. And perhaps most importantly, no Toblerone and other specialty chocolates that are ubiquitous in international terminals.

The drop in duty-free sales has exacerbated the global economic downturn that’s thrown the $107 billion chocolate market into disarray, helping turn a global deficit into a glut.There were 471,421 airline passengers in the U.S. on June 23, compared with 2.51 million on the same weekday a year earlier, according to the Transportation Security Administration.
“In San Francisco all closed. In Newark, the only thing open was one grab and go place that had a rack with chips and gummies for 50% off.”

The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for the world economy, signaling a further hit to cocoa consumption, which tends to closely follow gross domestic product. 

Mondelez International Inc. said in April that its world travel retail section is expected to see significant declines. The company has previously said travel represents about a third of the demand for Toblerone.

Brown-Forman Corp., the makers of Jack Daniels, said in a June 9 earnings call that its global travel retail segment, which includes duty-free sales, was down around 65%.

Still, slack demand will probably help flip the global market to a surplus of more than 300,000 tons from a deficit a year earlier, according to Eric Bergman, vice president at JSG Commodities in Connecticut.

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Virus Takes Root in Venezuela Oil Town Already in Collapse

Blood stains on the walls and floors. Cockroaches and rats in hallways. And several dozen Covid-19 patients per ward, but only two nurses and one bathroom.

Ever since the coronavirus started coursing through Latin America in March, health experts worried what would happen if the pandemic took root in embattled Venezuela. 

In the hot and humid coastal city of Maracaibo, that day has arrived.

Medical staff described how patients -- some of them lying on dirty floors -- wait two or three days for care. Some collapse before a stretcher becomes available. 

The health workers talk of x-ray machines that are broken, frequent power outages and bathrooms without running water. 

One hospital physician said they are seeing people with coronavirus symptoms die each day without ever getting a diagnosis. More are dying at home -- many don’t even bother trying to see a doctor now.

Zulia now has about 600 confirmed infections, or 14% of the country’s total. More than half of those can be traced to Las Pulgas, a popular open-air market in Maracaibo spread out across trash-covered streets where thousands of vendors sell fruit, meat and household products. 
Last week, President Nicolas Maduro blamed the outbreak on countrymen flowing in from Colombia, which shares a porous border with Venezuela and Brazil -- a global epicenter for the disease. 

They are “contaminating their entire families,” he said in a televised address. More than two-thirds of Venezuela’s roughly 4,200 cases are among people who returned from other countries.

Thirty nine-year-old Jose Vera went to University Hospital with mild symptoms and spent two weeks sharing a room with four patients and no air conditioning in the 88-degree weather.

He was later taken to a motel, guarded by soldiers, where he’s been for 13 days waiting for his test results to confirm whether or not he has Covid-19.

“The hospital is completely collapsed,” Vera said by phone. “I saw people in serious condition sitting in chairs all day waiting to be attended.”

At University Hospital, some nurses and doctors have stopped showing up altogether, fearing they’ll get sick too as they’re forced to recycle masks and wash their hands in buckets of water, said Hania Salazar, president of Zulia’s Nurses Guild.

The board of directors for the Zulia physicians association said in a June 21 statement that 44 doctors had already caught the respiratory illness. 

Two died and two more are in intensive care.

In a city where residents are malnourished and homes have no running water, the virus is proving catastrophic.

''The virus thrives on misery,” one doctor said.

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Wow. Ethiopia reports that it has foiled an Egyptian cyberattack amid tensions over Grand Renaissance Dam. @NateDFAllen
Law & Politics

This is the first publicly confirmed case I'm aware of one on African state conducting a cyberattack against another.

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Malawi media give opposition candidate 55% lead in presidential election
Law & Politics

BLANTYRE, June 24 (Reuters) - Malawi’s state and private media on Wednesday gave opposition leader Lazarus Chakwera a comfortable 55% lead in its presidential election re-run, with nearly three-quarters of votes counted, but there was still no official tally.

The state-owned Malawi Broadcasting Corporation and private media all had Chakwera with 55% or more, with President Peter Mutharika at 40%.

At a news conference late on Wednesday, Electoral Commission chairman Chifundo Kachale urged Malawians to be patient and await the official results, which he said were taking time because they wanted to get “a credible record.”

“We are doing it manually. We’ll use records from district tally centres and district commissioners, not social media. Our appeal to Malawians is to be patient,” Kachale said.

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Zimbabwe President @edmnangagwa Warns ‘End Is Coming’ for Economic Detractors @economics
Law & Politics

“It has become apparent that in our midst there are wolves in sheep’s clothing. The end is coming.”

The 77-year-old leader has ruled Zimbabwe since late 2017, after a coup ended former President Robert Mugabe’s rule. 

He inherited a nation beset by U.S. and European sanctions on its leaders and state companies, $9 billion of debt and an economy decimated by the state’s seizure of commercial farms that accounted for much of its exports.

Mnangagwa’s attempts to stabilize the economy have borne little fruit -- consumer inflation is running at 786%, the country’s recently revived currency has collapsed and the World Bank estimates the economy will shrink as much as 10% this year.

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21-JAN-2019 :: The Mind Game that ZANU-PF played on its citizens has evaporated in a puff of smoke
Law & Politics

I have been reading Yuval Noah Harari and in his best-seller he says this about money;

“Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised.”

“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagination. Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works by converting matter into mind.”

The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions, 

Zimbabwe is a classic example where there are $9.3 billion of Zollars in banks compared to $200 million in reserves, official data showed.

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent

The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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On 30 Oct. 1978 Idi Amin's army invaded Tanzania, occupying the Kagera salient (north of the river) @Unseen_Archive
Law & Politics

Here's a remarkable film from Reuters showing Amin in Kagera, inspecting the battlefield and posing for the camera with his soldiers.

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Now that the predatory “no-bid” OBOR contract with the Chinese has been declared illegal by Kenyan courts, other African nations should default in a chain-reaction. #MakeChinaPay #OBOR #china #Africa #nodeal
Kenyan Economy

Now that the predatory “no-bid” OBOR contract with the Chinese has been declared illegal by Kenyan courts, other African nations being preyed upon and bribed by the CCP should default in a chain-reaction. #MakeChinaPay #OBOR #china #Africa #nodeal

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Kenya's tourism industry has taken a huge hit in recent months with the closing of borders and grounding of many of its planes Adam Reed reports. @ReutersAfrica
Kenyan Economy

Kenya's tourism industry has taken a huge hit in recent months with the closing of borders and grounding of many of its planes. Waiting for news of when they can fly again is becoming tough for some. Adam Reed reports.

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I find Wilson Airport like a magic portal to another world
Tourism, Travel & Transport

I did not take the ‘ox-cart’ but an aeroplane from Wilson. The airport was once located on the outskirts of Nairobi but today it is in the city. It is very retro and has a style from a bygone era, which is to be treasured in this 21st Century of ours. I find Wilson Airport like a magic portal to another world.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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June 2020

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