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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 08th of July 2020

Red sun pillar at sunrise! polar light interacting with ice crystals, the view north from Arctowski Station on King George Island, South Shetland Islands #Antarctica pic S Kucięba @AntarcticReport

Red sun pillar at sunrise! polar light interacting with ice crystals, seen beyond Goetel Glacier across Admiralty Bay; the view north from Arctowski Station on King George Island, South Shetland Islands #Antarctica pic S Kucięba

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The Way We Live Now

There is a luminous and Fairy Tale feel to life 

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Xi Jinping urges Taiwan to follow Hong Kong model for unification @SCMPNews
Law & Politics

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on Beijing and Taipei to start talks on unification and adoption of “one country, two systems” in Taiwan, laying out steps to settle the 70-year-old divisions between the two sides.

In a speech on Wednesday to mark the 40th anniversary of a call from Beijing to end military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait, Xi said unification was key to “national rejuvenation”.

“The political division across the strait … cannot be passed on from generation to generation,” he said, apparently signalling his determination to end the separation between the self-ruled island and mainland China.

“The problem of Taiwan existed because the Chinese nation was weak and in chaos, but it will end along with national rejuvenation.”
“The political division across the strait … cannot be passed on from generation to generation,” he said, apparently signalling his determination to end the separation between the self-ruled island and mainland China.

“The problem of Taiwan existed because the Chinese nation was weak and in chaos, but it will end along with national rejuvenation.”

Xi said Taiwanese independence should not be tolerated and representatives from both sides should “start in-depth democratic consultations for a cross-strait relationship and the future of the Chinese nation, and reach transitional arrangements for the peaceful development of cross-strait ties”.

He said China would not abandon the use of force for unification, but stressed that the military would only target external elements and those seeking independence for Taiwan.

“Chinese people will not fight Chinese people,” he said.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, however, rejected Xi’s claim that the one country, two systems model was the way to resolve cross-strait conflicts.

“I must reiterate here that Taiwan will never accept one country, two systems, and the majority opinion in Taiwan is also against it,” she said just hours after Xi’s speech.

And on matters of unification, she said, only talks held at the government level carried any weight.

Taiwan and the mainland have been divided since the Nationalist, or Kuomintang, forces were defeated by the Communists in a civil war and retreated to the island. In the seven decades since, relations across the strait have often been tense, raising fears of military confrontation.

On January 1, 1979, Beijing stopped decades of regular artillery bombardment of Taiwan-controlled islands off the mainland, and in a public letter to the Taiwanese known as the “message to compatriots in Taiwan”, called for an end to military confrontation across the strait.

Also this week, US President Donald Trump signed into law legislation to bolster Washington’s ties with Taipei.

“The Chinese dream [of national rejuvenation] is the common dream of compatriots across the strait,” he said, using a slogan to promote China’s aspirations to be a strong power by the middle of the century.

“No one and no force can change the fact that Taiwan is part of China, and the historical and legal fact that both sides of the strait belong to one China.”

Xi said the differences in political systems between the two sides should not be obstacles to unification, and could be resolved through one country, two systems – an approach adopted for Hong Kong and Macau to ensure the two cities’ political and economic systems remained intact after handover.

“The introduction of one country, two systems is originally for taking care of the conditions of Taiwan and protecting the interests and benefits of Taiwan compatriots,” he said.

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4 days growth index: #SouthAfrica 19% #Panama 19% #Palestine 18% #Madagascar 13% #CostaRica 11% #Malawi 11% #Oman 10% #Bolivia 10% @oli3be

#Israel 9%

#Honduras 9%

#Colombia 8%

#Chile 8%

#US 8%

#Armenia 7%

#Kazakhstan 7%

#Libya 6%

#Brazil 6%

#Syria 6%

#Australia 4%


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"The virus that SARS-CoV-2 is supposed to have evolved from looks unmistakably artificial — in sections it contains far too many “mutations” that matter but hardly any of the normal noise of silent mutations which always occur naturally."

NerdHasPower, with several helpers, shows there are sections which are missing the silent mutations which would normally occur in a virus due to natural mutation. Think of these as the noise that should be there, but isn’t. 

The lack of this background noise shows the mutations were “designed” by the hand of man (or woman, in this case) with an aim in mind.

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To watch the Daily Briefing is to understand that the Control Machine has a Novice, a hubristic Ignoramus in charge of the Console
Law & Politics

The virus may be the most dangerous adversary America has ever faced. It's like the US was invaded. Tweeted @balajis

The normal defenses fail. It can't be bombed. Bank accounts can't be frozen. Unbreakable morale. No supply chain. Lives off the land. Infinite reinforcements. Fully decentralized.

I wrote a Non Linear and exponential Virus represents the greatest risk to a Control Machine in point of fact #COVID19.

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The Battlespace was not the Battlefield IT WAS THE INFORMATION BATTLESPACE
Law & Politics

“One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the conflict between information masters and information victims.”

This information warfare will not be couched in the rationale of geopolitics, the author suggests, but will be “spawned” - like any Hollywood drama - out of raw emotions. “Hatred, jealousy, and greed - emotions, rather than strategy - will set the terms of [information warfare] struggles”.

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DB's Reid stresses major difference between Spanish flu and Covid-19. For Spanish flu of 1918, young working-age population were severely affected. @Schuldensuehner
Death rate from pneumonia among 25-34year-olds in US was >50% higher than that for 65-74year-olds. Remarkable difference to Covid-19

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1285

Dollar Index 96.962

Japan Yen 107.47

Swiss Franc 0.9422

Pound 1.2559

Aussie 0.6934

India Rupee 75.0205

South Korea Won 1196.06

Brazil Real 5,3796

Egypt Pound 16.024

South Africa Rand 17.15

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10-MAY-2020 :: ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus.

In Brazil we have a toxic mix of a ‟Voodoo‟ President @jairbolsonaro and a runaway #COVID19

Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer

“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian

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@AfDB_Group African Economic Outlook 2020 - Supplement: #2020AEO

Real GDP in Africa is projected to contract by 1.7 percent in 2020, dropping by 5.6 percentage points from the January 2020 pre-COVID–19 projection, if the virus has a substantial impact but of short duration. 

If it continues beyond the first half of 2020, there would be a deeper GDP contraction in 2020 of 3.4 percent, down by 7.3 percentage points from the growth projected before the outbreak of COVID–19.

The most affected economies are those with poor healthcare systems, those that rely heav-ily on tourism, international trade, and commodity exports, and those with high debt burdens and high dependence on volatile international financial flows.

COVID–19 heightens the likelihood of a widespread and  far-reaching  sovereign  debt  crisis  if  debt  is  not  properly  managed.

Many  countries  in  Africa  entered  the  crisis  period  with  high  debt-to-GDP  ratios, which are projected to increase further by up to 10 percentage points beyond the pre-COVID trajectory  in  2020  and  2021.  

The  sovereign  debt  buildup  is  particularly  worrisome  because  of  its  changing risk structure in Africa as a result of the increasing share of commercial debt— eurobonds and other private creditors— and the high foreign currency denomination of Africa’s debt.

Remittances  took  the  lead  in  external  financ-ing,  up  by  7  percent  from  2017,  to  $82.8  billion  in 2018, and increasing further to $86.2 billion in 2019 on the back of a pickup in global economic growth and rising migration. 

This has become a vital source of foreign financing for many African economies, accounting for more than 10 percent of GDP of Cabo Verde, Comoros, Gambia, Leso-tho, Liberia, and Senegal. 

In turn, these countries have become exceptionally vulnerable to shocks to remittances caused by COVID–19

Foreign direct investment— which picked up in 2018 by 10.9 percent, reaching $45.9 billion, and improved  further  to  an  estimated  $49  billion  in  2019— is also expected to fall in 2020 as investors reduce or postpone their investments amid uncer-tainties.  

Official  development  assistance,  which  has  risen  since  2016  (by  1.2  percent  in  2018),  could be constrained by the impact of the crisis on advanced economies. 

And portfolio flows, which have declined since 2017, standing at $27.1 billion in 2019 for Africa, are experiencing severe pressures as emerging market capital flows suddenly stop, with forecasts predicting a fall of more than 50 percent in 2020, driven by the COVID–19 shock to global growth and a more risk-averse sentiment among investors

About  773.4  million  Africans  were  employed  in  2019,  projected  under  the  pre-COVID–19  assumptions  to  grow  to  792.7  million  in  2020.  

Under  the  baseline  scenario  of  a  1.7  percent  GDP  contraction,  employment  is  projected  to  decline  by  24.6  million  jobs  in  2020.  

Under  the  worst-case scenario of a 3.4 percent GDP con-traction, up to 30 million jobs could be lost. 

The recovery is likely to be volatile and uneven, requiring  governments  to  follow  a  carefully  planned  and  sequenced  adaptive  strategy  that  allows for continual adjustment, as new informa-tion becomes available and events unfold.

Fiscal  deficits  are  projected  to  double,  and  debt  levels  to  increase  by  an  additional  10  per-centage points of GDP

To reopen economies, policymakers need to follow a phased and incremental approach that carefully evaluates the tradeoffs between restarting economic activity too quickly and safe-guarding the health of the population

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On aggregate, expenditure has outpaced revenues in #SSA for last 10 years. @TheEIU_Africa

In 2020, deficits will be higher as revenues tank (commodity earnings and tax revenues mostly falling), while expenditure needs (healthcare, subsidies) rising

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Ethiopia's @NobelPrize Winner Can't Rest on His Laurels @bopinion

It’s not a good look on a Nobel Peace laureate. As protests raged in Ethiopia’s most populous region over the killing of a pop star, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered an internet blackout, preventing the rest of his country — and the wider world — from getting a complete picture of what was going on in Oromia.

This isn’t the first time Abiy, who collected his Nobel last year, has shut down the internet in Ethiopia. There were four such blackouts last year, more often than any other nation in sub-Saharan Africa

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SA #COVID19 UPDATE 7 July @rid1tweets

• 192 more deaths today - new daily record 

• 10,134 new cases. Daily doubling rate = 14.4 days 

• 43,421 tests conducted. Positivity rate at 23% T

• 4,451 more recoveries 

• Active cases = 110,054 

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent

The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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The Nigerian central bank has devalued its official exchange rate by 5.5% to 381 naira to the dollar from 360 naira, according to data on the website of FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange
World Currencies

The bank has not issued a statement about this and calls to the spokesman went unanswered.

The currency depreciation comes after Governor Godwin Emefiele announced last month that the bank plans to unify its multiple exchange rates to improve the transparency of its currency-management system.

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Jebel Kissu, in northwestern Sudan, emerges abruptly like an island in the vast Sahara Desert. The plateau is the eroded remnant of a granite dome. @USGS

The bright linear features are truck tracks, common in the Sahara where there are no paved roads. Resembling graphic novel art style, this image could be an asteroid hurtling toward Earth, burning across a twilight sky.

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Resembling choppy waters in a rough sea, this image is an infrared exposition of a sand sea in Namibia. Sand dunes surround a crescent-shaped rocky hill. @USGS

This inselberg is hard rock that resisted the erosion that took place over time around it. The inselberg disrupts the deposition of sand, changing the dune pattern.

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Seventeen rivers flow into the Bangweulu Wetlands in Zambia, but only one drains out. @USGS

Green tendrils randomly sweep through the image, a landscape dominated by various grasslands, open water, and dense Papyrus grass and Phragmites reeds. The entire wetland covers an area about the size of Connecticut.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2020

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