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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 09th of July 2020

Plain and simple. What happens if the Fed keeps doing QE? @TaviCosta

Silver & miners will explode to the upside.If they stop? Stocks will collapse. Buy gold & sell stocks.

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A vast, open expanse in Namibia is one of the largest salt pans in the world. The pan is within Etosha National Park, protected since 1907. @USGS

The horizontal line across the image is the national park fence. The wild patterns in this infrared interpretation are from numerous episodes of water evaporation following seasonal rains. The salt from the water is rearranged into new patterns every time the shallow water dries out. The surrounding blue shades are dry bushland savanna.

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In Western Sahara, Africa, an intense network of wadis drains toward the west, eventually reaching the Atlantic Ocean. @USGS

This natural landscape might appear more like a medical illustration of itchy nerve endings. In Western Sahara, Africa, an intense network of wadis drains toward the west, eventually reaching the Atlantic Ocean. These drainage courses are almost always dry in this remote part of the Sahara Desert.

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Why China Wants Trump to Win @TheAtlantic @MichaelSchuman
Law & Politics

In fact, four more years of Trump—though likely packed with annoyances and disputes—might present tantalizing opportunities for China to expand its influence around East Asia and the world.

Of course, we can’t know with certainty what outcome China’s senior cadres prefer, or if they even agree among themselves. No candidate should expect an endorsement from People’s Daily. 

Still, there are clues. In a highly unusual comment, the former Chinese trade negotiator Long Yongtu reportedly told a Shenzhen conference late last year, “We want Trump to be reelected; we would be glad to see that happen.” 

The president’s tweets make him “easy to read,” Long said, and thus “the best choice in an opponent for negotiations.” 

In May, Hu Xijin, the outspoken editor of the Communist Party–-run newspaper Global Times, tweeted at Trump that the Chinese “wish for your reelection because you can make America eccentric and thus hateful for the world. You help promote unity in China.” 

Hu added that “Chinese netizens call you ‘Jianguo,’ meaning ‘help to construct China.’” 

Long and Hu may not be speaking for the Beijing leadership, but no Chinese official or state-media figure would risk making such statements in public if their views were taboo in the inner circle of power.

What gives? Many Americans believe (erroneously) that Trump is the first president to stand up to China. After all, his administration has slapped tariffs on China’s exports, sanctioned some of its most important companies and officials, and pressured Beijing to play fair on trade—and the Chinese want more? 

Sure, Beijing would much rather have avoided a costly trade spat with its largest customer. But Trump may not strike as much terror in the hearts of Beijing’s top cadres as you might expect.

“He has some gut feelings that China doesn’t like, but he has gut feelings China does not really mind,” Minxin Pei, a specialist in Chinese politics at Claremont McKenna College, told me. 

“He does not really see China as an ideological adversary. Trump can be persuaded if the price is right.”

For China, that’s key. Although Trump has sometimes acted on political and human-rights issues Beijing finds highly sensitive—most recently, signing legislation to impose sanctions for the Chinese government’s abusive treatment of minority Uighurs—he personally has often appeared disinterested, even dismissive. 

In a new book, Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton claimed that Trump told Chinese President Xi Jinping over dinner in Osaka that the detention camps Beijing was building to control the Uighur community were the right thing to do. 

Trump also recently admitted that he delayed sanctions on officials involved with the camps to smooth negotiations for his coveted trade deal with China.

Trump has shown similar ambivalence toward Beijing’s intensifying crackdown on prodemocracy protesters in Hong Kong. 

The president promised stiff penalties to counter Beijing’s latest move—imposing a national-security law on Hong Kong aimed at wiping out remaining resistance—and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has made bellicose statements and threats over the move. 

But Trump’s commitment to the Hong Kong cause has often seemed lukewarm. 

Last year, as millions marched in the city, he sidestepped supporting them, at one point even mouthing the Communist Party’s line by calling the protests “riots” and a purely Chinese matter. 

“That’s between Hong Kong and that’s between China, because Hong Kong is a part of China,” he said last August.

Trump has more aggressively contested Beijing’s controversial claim to nearly the entire South China Sea by increasing the frequency of naval missions sent through the disputed waters to uphold freedom of navigation, but he hasn’t followed that up with any consistent diplomacy in Southeast Asia, and he himself has generally ignored the issue.

“China’s leadership is pretty confident that, while they haven’t won the South China Sea, they are certainly winning,” Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, told me. 

Preventing that will require a collective international effort led by the United States, but “you can be pretty certain that is not going to happen under the Trump administration,” Poling said.

Here lies the main reason Beijing may not mind another Trump term: His style of foreign policy—unilateral, personalized, and fixated on dollars-and-cents matters—has severely weakened America’s traditional system of alliances. 

“The Trump people believe that the U.S. alone can deal China a fatal blow,” Pei said. 

“Democrats would likely reach out to allies to form a much more united front against China. If the Democrats succeed, China would be in a much more difficult situation in the long run.”

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22-JUN-2020 :: President Trump does not have the mental bandwidth – His is a narrow, transactional Game.
Law & Politics

The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble.

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"Temporal bandwidth," is the width of your present, your now. It is the familiar "∆ t" considered as a dependent variable.
Law & Politics

The more you dwell in the past and in the future, the thicker your bandwidth, the more solid your persona. But the narrower your sense of Now, the more tenuous you are.

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22-JUN-2020 :: What @AmbJohnBolton is telling me is Xi played @POTUS all the way especially in the matter of #COVID19
Law & Politics

Mr. Trump, he writes, was “pleading with Xi to ensure he’d win.” Mr. Bolton said that Mr. Trump “stressed the importance of farmers, and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome.” @nytimes

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The U.S. Can No Longer Ignore or Contain China. What Now? @WPReview @hofrench
Law & Politics

How should the United States and the West more broadly respond to the continuing rise of China?

Consider some major developments in recent weeks, starting with the imposition by Beijing of a new security law on Hong Kong. 

The law sharply curtails what was left of Hong Kong’s semiautonomous status, which was promised to last for 50 years after the city’s handover to China from Britain in 1997.

New details have also emerged about the forced confinement and “reeducation” of China’s mostly Muslim Uighur minorities in the northwestern region of Xinjiang. 

According to recent reporting by the Associated Press, China “regularly subjects minority women to pregnancy checks, and forces intrauterine devices, sterilization and even abortion on hundreds of thousands” in Xinjiang. 

Adrian Zenz, a China scholar at the Jamestown Foundation, found that “in 2018, 80 percent of all new IUD placements in China were performed in Xinjiang—despite the fact that the region makes up only 1.8 percent of the nation’s population.” 

Beijing will have little trouble imposing its own order on large parts of Asia and the Pacific if all it has to worry about is an America that sends the occasional aircraft carrier its way, thinking that this constitutes effective policy.

The final option is to simply go home, meaning more radical American withdrawal. 

This might mean the calculation that rocks or artificial islets in the South China Sea are not worth the loss of a U.S. flagship, and that it is time to stop pretending they are. 

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7 OCT 19 :: China turns 70
Law & Politics

“Longing on a large scale makes History''

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The Fed has created its own monster. It can't stop buying assets otherwise the whole system will collapse.@TaviCosta
World Of Finance

Corporate bond yields now at record lows even though debt levels have soared to new highs.  The Fed has created its own monster. It can't stop buying assets otherwise the whole system will collapse.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1332

Dollar Index 96.442

Japan Yen 107.27

Swiss Franc 0.9379

Pound 1.2629

Aussie 0.6980

India Rupee 75.031

South Korea Won 1195.34

Brazil Real 5.3454

Egypt Pound 16.019

South Africa Rand 16.91516

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10-MAY-2020 :: #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

We are witnessing a Spill Over into EM and Frontier Geographies

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The recovery is likely to be volatile and uneven, requiring governments to follow a carefully planned and sequenced adaptive strategy that allows for continual adjustment #2020AEO
World Of Finance

Africa’s  growth  is  projected  to  rebound  in  2021  to  3.0  percent  in  the  baseline  scenario and 2.4 percent in the worst-case scenario (figure 1.5). 

This V-shaped recovery would only be partial since sectors such as tourism, transportation, and entertainment may take longer to fully recover as people gradually readjust to the new normal in social  interactions.

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In Africa, lack of coronavirus data raises fears of 'silent epidemic' @Reuters @khoureld @DG_Lewis

When the new coronavirus hit Tanzania in mid-April, President John Magufuli called for three days of national prayer to seek God’s protection from the scourge. 

Barely a month later, he claimed victory over the disease and invited tourists to return to his East African nation.

His rush to reopen came despite alarm from the World Health Organization (WHO) over an almost total lack of information on the spread of the virus in the country of 55 million people, which has one of the region’s weakest healthcare systems.

The shortage of reliable data afflicts many African nations, with some governments reluctant to acknowledge epidemics or to expose their crumbling health systems to outside scrutiny. 
According to the latest data collated by Reuters, Africa, with a population of 1.3 billion people, had over 493,000 confirmed cases and 11,600 deaths. 

By comparison, Latin America, with roughly half the population, had 2.9 million cases and 129,900 deaths.

The official numbers make it seem as though the illness has skirted much of Africa, but the real picture is certain to be worse, with WHO special envoy Samba Sow warning on May 25 of a possible “silent epidemic” if testing was not prioritised.

By July 7, 4,200 tests per million people had been carried out across the continent, according to a Reuters analysis of figures from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), a body set up by the African Union in 2017. 

That compares with averages of 7,650 in Asia and 74,255 in Europe.

“In some countries, they are having meetings and not inviting us. We are supposed to be the main technical advisor.”  

Yao declined to single out countries, saying the WHO needed to preserve a working relationship with governments.

Tanzania confirmed its first case of COVID-19 on March 16. 

The next day, the government  convened a task force  to coordinate the response with international partners including the WHO, foreign embassies, donors and aid agencies, multiple sources said.

This body never met again with outsiders, two foreign officials familiar with the situation told Reuters, while government officials failed to show up to dozens of subsequent coronavirus-related meetings, they said.

“It’s very clear the government does not want any information about the state of COVID in the country,” said one aid official, who like many of those interviewed by Reuters for this story, asked not to be identified for fear of antagonizing political leaders.

Tanzania’s health minister Ummy Mwalimu and government spokesman did not respond to phone calls or emailed questions raised by this article about their handling of the crisis. 

The spokesman, Hassan Abbasi, has previously denied withholding information about the country’s epidemic.

Tanzania has not published nationwide figures since May 8, when it had recorded 509 cases and 21 deaths

Without information about how severe an outbreak is and what resources are available to cope with it, nations risk lifting lockdowns too soon or maintaining them too long, said Amanda McClelland of the U.S.-based health policy initiative Resolve to Save Lives.

“The big gap for us is really understanding the severity of the outbreak,” she said. “Without clarity on data, it is very hard to justify the economic pain that shutting down countries causes.”

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Just over 420 tests per 100,000 people have been carried out across the continent of 1.3 billion, a @Reuters analysis found #COVID19 @ReutersGraphics

Tanzania has not published nationwide figures since May 8, when it had recorded 509 cases and 21 deaths.

South Africa, home to nearly 60 million people, has carried out 1.9 million tests, by far the most on the continent. It accounts for over 40% of Africa’s cases

By July 7, 4,200 tests per million people had been carried out across the continent, according to a Reuters analysis of figures from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), a body set up by the African Union in 2017. 

That compares with averages of 7,650 in Asia and 74,255 in Europe.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, has the laboratory capacity to carry out 10,000 tests per day, but insufficient technicians and logistical problems like poor roads make it hard to carry out more than 2,500, the institute said. 

“The spread of the virus seems to be outpacing testing,” said Tim Bromfield, the institute's regional director for East and Southern Africa. 

“So far, there have been low numbers of severe cases. But the risk is that if the number of severe cases increases… African healthcare systems become overwhelmed”.

More testing means more confirmed cases, but the Reuters analysis found that in at least 30 countries the number of positive results is increasing faster than the number of tests carried out. 

That suggests the virus is spreading faster than it is being tracked, Bromfield said.

Burundi 191 cases from 2,359 tests

Rwanda 1,113 cases from 163,384 tests

Mali 2,331 cases from 13,602 tests

Senegal 7,478 cases from 78,371 tests

Tanzania 509 cases from 3,880 tests

Kenya 8,067 cases from 191,394 tests

Some nations, including Rwanda, Senegal and Ethiopia, are setting up programs to monitor graveyards to try to detect spikes in burials. They are interviewing gravediggers and community leaders to establish the usual average.

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Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 

100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 

200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days

300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days

400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

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500,000+ confirmed #COVID19 cases on the African continent - @WHOAFRO

with more than 245,000 recoveries & 11,900 deaths. View country figures & more with the WHO African Region COVID-19 Dashboard: 

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SA #COVID19 UPDATE 8 July • 8,810 new cases in SA. Daily doubling rate = 17 days• 36,867 tests conducted. Positivity rate at 24% @rid1tweets

• With 75,015 total cases, Gauteng now the province with most confirmed cases in SAFlag of South Africa

• 8,810 new cases in SA. Daily doubling rate = 17 days

• 36,867 tests conducted. Positivity rate at 24%

• 98 more deaths today

• 4,543 more recoveries

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent

The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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#Covid_19SA Gauteng Government is preparing for the worst. Gauteng is poised to become the #Covid_19SA epicentre soon. #eNCA @SiphamandlaGoge
#Covid_19SA Gauteng Government is preparing for the worst. This grave site on the outskirts of Pretoria, the country's capital is being prepared & reserved for Covid-19 burials. Gauteng is poised to become the #Covid_19SA epicentre soon. #eNCA

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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U.S., Kenya formally launch trade deal talks
Kenyan Economy

In a joint statement, trade ministers for the two countries, Betty Maina and Robert Lighthizer, said they were holding an initial round of talks virtually over the next two weeks due to the coronavirus.

Kenya wants to do a deal with Washington before the expiry of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows sub-Saharan African states to export thousands of products to the United States without tariffs or quotas until 2025.

“We believe this agreement with Kenya will complement Africa’s regional integration efforts, including in the East African Community and the landmark African Continental Free Trade Area...” Maina and Lighthizer said.

Two-way goods trade between the United States and Kenya totaled $1.1 billion in 2019, up 4.9% from 2018.

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19-APR-2020 :: The End of Vanity China Africa Win Win

 To quote a Chinese saying, "The ocean is vast because it rejects no rivers." 

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.@Transcentury share price data
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Price: 1.61 Market Capitalization: $4.217m EPS:-7.95 PE: -0.203

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2020

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