| |
13-JUL-2020 :: Year of the Virus World Of Finance |
We are here
Total Confirmed 12,740,971
My Model is showing 300,000,000 cases by December
summary of #COVID__19 @SandroDemaio
• 1,424,892 cases were confirmed in the last week • 229,759 just in the last 24 hours @MaxCRoser
The #COVID Daily Case Count is above 200,000
cases doubled worldwide in 6 weeks
Malcolm Gladwell spoke of the Boiling Point
Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It’s the boiling point. It’s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. #nCoV2019
We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us.
a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.
This is the Comet NEOWISE BBC
I was reading Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah which sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period.
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.
Countries that I'm worried about. @MaxCRoser
Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.” Angela Merkel
The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.
political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis
Madagascar 435 nouveaux cas confirmés #covid19mg @NCoVAfrica
Africa has a Problem
COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19
and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said
’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone. “Our pandemic is getting full speed.”
Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa
From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days 300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days 400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days
South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa
A Lot of People whom I follow and who should know better by now keep repeating that the CFR rate is very low. Understand this
A reminder that # deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later @nntaleb
Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear
Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.
The WHO are going to China for a break.
This is a time for self-reflection, for all of us involved in the #COVID19 response to look in the mirror; to look at the world we live in and to find ways to strengthen our collaboration as we work together to save lives and bring this pandemic under control.
.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros
“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”
Dear @MaEllenSirleaf & @HelenClarkNZ The starting point of your enquiry has to be precisely what is being precluded below because “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” #COVID19
I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.
According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”
However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
America and China Are Entering the Dark Forest @bopinion @nfergus
"The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.”
First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:
The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.
Kissinger is often thought of (in my view, wrongly) as the supreme American exponent of Realpolitik. But this is something much harsher than realism. This is intergalactic Darwinism.
The Financial Markets
The Chart of Truth - 10 year yields still heading for sub-zero. @RaoulGMI
I expect the US Curve out to 10 Years to be negative by Year End
Short sterling: first ever 100.00 print in futures -- this means market is pricing for a 0% level in 3-month GBP Libor by March 2022 @StephenSpratt
The Nasdaq closed at All time Highs and BIG TECH is leading the Charge
$TSLA +$600 in 9 days @NorthmanTrader
27-JAN-2020 : "But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola" @Tesla @elonmusk
''They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’
The Equity Markets are being priced on the basis of Liquidity and are in nose-bleed Territory.
22-MAR-2020 :: I believe Gold will soon turn viral to the Upside I am looking for $2,000.00+
Cumulative #gold inflows at all-time high (BofA) @chigrl
22-JUN-2020 :: Gold is a No Brainer targets $2,000.00
#Gold and #cash, not #equities or #bonds have seen the biggest inflows this year! @jsblokland
22-JUN-2020 :: The FED WILL KEEP ON PRINTING THEY HAVE ONLY JUST GOTTEN STARTED
|
| read more |
|
The universe is a dark forest. This is intergalactic Darwinism.@bopinion @nfergus Misc. |
Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost … trying to tread without sound … The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people … any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out. This is intergalactic Darwinism. |
| read more |
|
The plague writers who predicted today @BBC Market Crashes / Panic |
By July, the City of London enforces new rules – rules now becoming routine in our 2020 shutdown, such as “that all public feasting, and particularly by the companies of this city, and dinners at taverns, ale-houses, and other places of common entertainment, be forborne till further order and allowance…”
Nothing, Defoe writes, “was more fatal to the inhabitants of this city than the supine negligence of the people themselves, who, during the long notice or warning they had of the visitation, made no provision for it by laying in store of provisions, or of other necessaries, by which they might have lived retired and within their own houses, as I have observed others did, and who were in a great measure preserved by that caution…”
By August, Defoe writes, the plague is “very violent and terrible”; by early September it reaches its worst, with “whole families, and indeed whole streets of families… swept away together.”
By December, “the contagion was exhausted, and also the winter weather came on apace, and the air was clear and cold, with sharp frosts… most of those that had fallen sick recovered, and the health of the city began to return.”
|
| read more |
|
Coronavirus: World Health Organisation @WHO inquiry will not visit Wuhan laboratory #COVID19 @thesundaytimes Misc. |
“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”
“Was any attempt made to clone RaTG13 virus — were any gene sequences from presumed RaTG13 virus ever synthesized? If so, where and when?” Petrovsky asked. “What was done with these cloned sequences?”
Peter Daszak, a British-born US-based zoologist, who has worked for 15 years with a team headed by Shi, confirmed to Insight that this was the same virus found in the mine, even though its name had been changed from RaBtCoV/4991.
|
| read more |
|
“Covid-19 is clearly the job-killer of the century,” @FijiPM Frank Bainimarama said. @guardian Misc. |
“You can’t suddenly work from home when you earn your paycheque as a scuba instructor, or in a garment factory dependent on regional supply chains, or as a handicraft maker who usually sells to tourists.
“These are the faces behind the dismal figures for employment, the high human cost of this pandemic, which mounts by the day.”
Fiji’s attorney-general, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, warned of a “coronavirus cyclone … a perfect storm of climate and Covid-19” that could take Pacific states decades to recover from.
“Today, if you were to ask any small island/developing state’s finance or economy minister, they’ll tell you that – when compounded by the global pandemic – our usual climate-induced anxiety has escalated into a sense of impending dread. We’re all bracing for a ‘coronavirus cyclone’ of the century,” he wrote on Twitter.
|
| read more |
|
Africa to Become Testing Ground for “Trust Stamp” Vaccine Record and Payment System @MintPressNews by Raul Diego Africa |
A new biometric identity platform partnered with the Gates-funded GAVI vaccine alliance and Mastercard will launch in West Africa and combine COVID-19 vaccinations, cashless payments, and potential law enforcement applications.
A biometric digital identity platform that “evolves just as you evolve” is set to be introduced in “low-income, remote communities” in West Africa thanks to a public-private partnership between the Bill Gates-backed GAVI vaccine alliance, Mastercard and the AI-powered “identity authentication” company, Trust Stamp.
The program, which was first launched in late 2018, will see Trust Stamp’s digital identity platform integrated into the GAVI-Mastercard “Wellness Pass,” a digital vaccination record and identity system that is also linked to Mastercard’s click-to-play system that powered by its AI and machine learning technology called NuData.
Mastercard, in addition to professing its commitment to promoting “centralized record keeping of childhood immunization” also describes itself as a leader toward a “World Beyond Cash,” and its partnership with GAVI marks a novel approach towards linking a biometric digital identity system, vaccination records, and a payment system into a single cohesive platform.
The effort, since its launch nearly two years ago, has been funded via $3.8 million in GAVI donor funds in addition to a matched donation of the same amount by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
| read more |
|
@MoodysInvSvc Ethiopia political tensions are credit negative @ReutersAfrica World Of Finance |
Moody’s said on Friday that the latest bout of political unrest in Ethiopia following the murder of a popular singer threatened to further slow already stalling economic growth and was “credit negative”.
More than 166 people were killed during anti-government protests in Ethiopia in early July after popular Oromo musician Haacaaluu Hundeessaa was shot dead by unknown gunmen, with his death tapping into grievances fuelled by decades of government repression.
“We expect the economy to grow by only 2% in 2020 compared with 9% in 2019,” Moody’s Kelvin Dalrymple wrote in a note to clients.
“The unrest also has the potential to derail Ethiopia’s democratic transition, especially in the run up to the now-delayed first multiparty democratic elections.”
Moody’s downgraded Ethiopia’s long-term issuer rating to B2 from B1 in May.
|
| read more |
|
I have been reading Yuval Noah Harari and in his best-seller he says this about money; World Of Finance |
“Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised.”
“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagination. Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works by converting matter into mind.”
|
| read more |
|
“The composition of the cabinet reflects backroom deals founded on pay for play, corruption and nepotism,” he said. @mailandguardian @thecontinent_ Law & Politics |
“The backlash represents a crisis of expectations ... people are seeing configurations similar to those seen in the previous regime and so do not think that the cabinet as composed represents the change desired,” said Henry Chingaipe, a governance expert.
On Friday, the president gave a speech to respond to the concerns, saying that all appointments were made on merit alone.
Speaking directly to his new cabinet ministers, Chakwera said: “I want you to hear me and to hear me clearly... should you prove the sceptics right by being lazy, abusive, wasteful, arrogant, extravagant, divisive and corrupt, I will not hesitate to have you replaced.”
|
| read more |
|
When the president met the Imam Mali’s future hangs in the balance. Mucahid Durmaz @mailandguardian @thecontinent_ Law & Politics |
Last Saturday, arguably the two most powerful men in Mali greeted each other in a reception room somewhere in Bamako. The room was lined with leather sofas; as they spoke, the national flag hung on a pole behind them.
Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta is the president of Mali. His guest that day was Mahmoud Dicko: the influential imam who represents the greatest threat to Keïta’s presidency.
After their meeting, as he left, Dicko addressed the president’s cameraman.
He sounded optimistic. “We talked about everything that concerns this crisis and the country in general. I think that with the will of everyone and of all the parties concerned, we will, inshallah, find the solution.”
President Keïta – or IBK, as he is commonly known – faces no shortage of crises, or challenges to his authority.
There are the Islamist militants in the north, contained only by the presence of a massive international peacekeeping force. Their reach extends to central Mali, exacerbating intercommunal tensions that have already been sharpened by the impact of climate change on access to land and water.
In the south, where more than 90% of the country lives, endemic poverty and food insecurity has fuelled widespread anger towards the government, with the Covid-19 pandemic worsening the situation.
Multiple corruption scandals have not helped any of these tensions, or instilled confidence in IBK’s government, which has been in power since 2013.
Against this backdrop, Dicko has been able to channel public frustration towards the state with an approach that resonates widely: he advocates for moral values and good governance; calls for unity and divine assistance; and encourages reconciliation between ethnic and religious groups.
Nor is he afraid to criticise the president.
“The head of state no longer has the physical and mental skills to run the country. Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta must leave,” Dicko said last month, according to Le Monde Afrique.
|
| read more |
|
02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word Africa |
We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!
|
| read more |
|
@KeEquityBank Group eyes Sh50bn long-term debt in three years @BD_Africa N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Equity Group is eyeing up to Sh50 billion from international financiers in the next three years as it seeks to boost its liquidity and capital positions.
Group CEO James Mwangi told investors in a recent virtual annual general meeting that the board wants to reinforce the lender’s liquidity and capital positions through a mix of medium-term and long-term debts.
This will take the group’s borrowed funds beyond the Sh56.7 billion it has in its books at the end of December 2019.
Borrowing stood at Sh45.1 billion in the preceding financial year.
“We anticipate we shall be able to get up to Sh50billion of liquidity through debts as it was demonstrated by World Bank releasing Sh5 billion to help us support SMEs,” said Mr Mwangi.
Equity’s Sh22.89 billion loan or about 40 per cent of its current borrowings will mature by March 2023, the information in its latest annual report shows.
|
| read more |
|
|
|
|
