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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 14th of July 2020

Biden's odds of winning the Presidency are at their best level yet. @TheStalwart
Law & Politics

Still unclear if the Goya controversy or Trump wearing a mask will dramatically move the needle

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We can pool all of the data from the states, and we get this graph: @koko_vivian

There isn’t really any good news here. Cases started rising nationally 4 weeks ago, and we're seeing mortality now. This means that mortality will continue to increase for another month.

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Confirmed daily cases have been growing at about 2%/day; now at ~210k/day. @Marco_Piani

Trajectories of daily confirmed cases&deaths per capita by global regions. 

Timelines for countries with more than 20,000 cases and 300 deaths

Confirmed daily cases have been growing at about 2%/day; now at ~210k/day. Also deaths started growing again.

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13-JUL-2020 :: Year of the Virus
World Of Finance

We are here

Total Confirmed 12,740,971

My Model is showing 300,000,000 cases by December

summary of #COVID__19 @SandroDemaio

• 1,424,892 cases were confirmed in the last week • 229,759 just in the last 24 hours @MaxCRoser

The #COVID Daily Case Count is above 200,000

cases doubled worldwide in 6 weeks

Malcolm Gladwell spoke of the Boiling Point

Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It’s the boiling point. It’s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. #nCoV2019

We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us.

a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.

This is the Comet NEOWISE BBC

I was reading Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah which sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period.

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.

Countries that I'm worried about. @MaxCRoser

Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.” Angela Merkel

The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.

political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis

Madagascar 435 nouveaux cas confirmés #covid19mg @NCoVAfrica

Africa has a Problem

COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19

and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said

’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone. “Our pandemic is getting full speed.”

Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days 300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days 400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa

A Lot of People whom I follow and who should know better by now keep repeating that the CFR rate is very low. Understand this

A reminder that # deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later @nntaleb 

Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear

Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.

The WHO are going to China for a break.

This is a time for self-reflection, for all of us involved in the #COVID19 response to look in the mirror; to look at the world we live in and to find ways to strengthen our collaboration as we work together to save lives and bring this pandemic under control.

.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros 

“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”

Dear @MaEllenSirleaf & @HelenClarkNZ The starting point of your enquiry has to be precisely what is being precluded below because “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” #COVID19 

I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.

There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.

According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”

America and China Are Entering the Dark Forest @bopinion @nfergus 

"The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.”

First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:

The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.

Kissinger is often thought of (in my view, wrongly) as the supreme American exponent of Realpolitik. But this is something much harsher than realism. This is intergalactic Darwinism.

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#SouthAfrica already fast #COVID19 growth rate continues to accelerate. @jmlukens

#Israel, #Japan, #Algeria, #Australia, #Luxembourg, & #Lebanon experiencing 2nd wave.  #CostaRica, #WestBank / #Gaza, & #Madagascar total cases almost doubled in past week.

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One asymptomatic carrier rode an elevator alone, then 71 people got COVID-19.

She did everything right. She had no symptoms, but she self-quarantined anyway after travel. 

She stayed in her apartment. She ordered-in food. But she became patient zero in a 71-case cluster.

The traveller had used the elevator alone. So there had been no direct contact. 

In this case, the researchers believe the daughter who lived on the floor below must have touched her face, eyes or nose after later using the same buttons or leaning against the same panels.

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SARS-Cov-2 attacks via ACE2 rec. cells - all organs (& arteries) are susceptible to cell destruction @GenCar001

Lung cells are very delicate  so damaged lungs most common expression but definitely not only 

Known for some time that COVID more of a blood disease - major issues with clotting

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R_14_14 almost stable around 1.2, "Confirmed Active Cases" almost EXPONENTIAL @oli3be

Doubling Rate of "Confirmed Active Cases" = 2 months 

( 1.2^4 =2, 4*14=56 days)

R_d1_d2= (1+d1_Days_Delta[Cases - Recovered - Deaths])^(d2/d1) --- #COVID19 #Coronavirus

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27-JAN-2020 : "But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola" @Tesla @elonmusk
World Of Finance

''They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

The Equity Markets are being priced on the basis of Liquidity and are in nose-bleed Territory.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1342

Dollar Index 96.553

Japan Yen 107.31

Swiss Franc 0.9412

Pound 1.2535

Aussie 0.6949

India Rupee 75.3925

South Korea Won 1204.94

Brazil Real 5.4035

Egypt Pound 15.9550

South Africa Rand 16.8194

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#Cocoa v #Copper @TonysAngle

Cocoa: NY benchmark price down 25% since Feb (choc sales Chart with downwards trend)

Copper: Chart with upwards trend on #ChinaEcon infrastructure investment boost

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Nile Dam Talks Founder, Escalating Tension Between Africa Powers @bpolitics
Law & Politics

Egypt’s Irrigation Ministry said in a statement that the talks had concluded with continuing differences on the main issues regarding the filling and operation of the dam.

The Horn of Africa nation has asserted what it says is its right to fill the reservoir, which is associated with a 6,000 megawatt power plant, at its own pace. 

Egypt, however, regards an agreement as crucial before damming can begin. 

At the same time, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stands to lose support at home if he doesn’t move ahead with filling the dam, which he describes as vital for the nation’s economic development.

Egypt would see any unilateral filling as a threat to regional peace and security and is keeping all options open as to how it will respond, a government official from the country said, asking not to be identified. In the 1970s, Egypt’s then-leader Anwar Sadat threatened war if the dam was built.

While Egypt’s stance has been more conciliatory in the negotiations that have spanned much of the past decade, it has already involved both the U.S. and the United Nations Security Council in the dispute.

In a June 29 letter to the Security Council, Egypt vowed to “uphold and protect the vital interests of its people.” It went on: “Survival is not a question of choice, but an imperative of nature.”

The Egyptians want a discrete agreement relating only to the dam and believe that Ethiopia is seeking to redraw a so-called colonial-era agreement to grant itself more control of the flow of Africa’s longest river, the official said.

Another point of contention is the talks over mechanisms for any further disputes, another person associated with the talks said. 

Ethiopia wants disputes to be sorted out between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan and if that fails, within the African Union. 

Egypt wants the right to appeal to international bodies such as the UN.

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More protests in DRC capital Kinshasa. This time by Movemement for Liberation of the Congo led by @bembajp @uaykani @C_SOI
Law & Politics

Opposition parties have started protests over controversial  nomination of a new electoral commission president...video by @uaykani

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GDP per capita shrinking across African countries in 2020 @AgatheDemarais
World Of Finance

• #Nigeria, #Angola, #Zambia, #SouthAfrica most severely impacted

• #Ethiopia and #Egypt doing best, with no drop in GDP per capita

• Recovery to pre-coronavirus levels will take up to five years

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Some areas of the world (most prominently, Africa) appear to follow a pretty steady exponential growth @Marco_Piani

Some areas of the world (most prominently, Africa) appear to follow a pretty steady exponential growth, at least for cases, which would indicate that the pandemic is very far from being even at its peak.

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SA #COVID19 UPDATE 13 July Daily doubling rate = 16.9 days Daily positivity rate up to a record high of 28.7% @rid1tweets

• 11,554 new cases. Daily doubling rate = 16.9 days

• 40,233 tests conducted. Daily positivity rate up to a record high of 28.7% T

• 93 more deaths today

• 3,367 more recoveries

• Active cases = 145,383

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Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 

100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 

200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days

300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days

400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent

The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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Madagascar's president says two lawmakers have died from COVID-19 @ReutersAfrica
Law & Politics

Two lawmakers in Madagascar have died of COVID-19 and at least 25 members of parliament and of the senate have been infected with the virus since the first case was confirmed on the island in March, President Andry Rajoelina said late on Sunday.

Madagascar has had 5,080 confirmed novel coronavirus cases since then, and 37 deaths, according the government data.

A countrywide state of health emergency has been in place since March and the authorities re-imposed a lockdown in the capital and surrounding areas last week to contain the virus’s spread.

“One deputy died. A senator died. After the tests carried out on the deputies, 11 members of parliament were detected carrying the coronavirus. At the Senate, 14 people, senators and agents of Senate carry the coronavirus,” Rajoelina said during an appearance on a talk show on national television late on Sunday.

He did not say when the lawmakers died, and did not name them.

Rajoelina also said that he and his family had been taking “Covid Organics”, Madagascar’s self-proclaimed, plant-based “cure” for COVID-19 that was launched in April, despite warnings from the World Health Organisation that its efficacy is unproven.

“It is true that I have been in contact with people likely to carry the coronavirus. I have even entered hospitals that care for patients with Covid-19. I’m fine,” he said.

“I don’t carry coronavirus at all. I have no symptoms. Thank God. I follow the directives that I have given myself. But above all, me and my loved ones, my wife and my children, we drink and we follow a treatment based on the Covid Organics concoction.”

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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Nigeria's central bank blocks importers of maize from accessing foreign exchange through official channels @PaulWallace123

This comes as FX shortages in the country worsen, with the #naira trading at 465/USD on the parallel market. It's official rate is around 380

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Tunisia seeks late debt payments as crisis hits economy, state budget @reutersafrica
Emerging Markets

It is negotiating with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France and Italy to push back the payments, Investment Minister Slim Azzabi told a news conference. Tunisia also hoped to arrange a new deal within four months with the International Monetary Fund.

The request on debt repayments underscores the dire condition of Tunisia’s public finances, already a source of concern before the coronavirus crisis pummelled the global economy.

Azzabi said he expected the Tunisian economy to shrink by 6.5% this year because of the pandemic. Tunisia imposed a complete lockdown from March until May and has gradually reopened since, though some businesses remain closed.

The pandemic is particularly hammering the tourism sector, which contributes nearly 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) and is an important source of foreign currency.

Tourism revenue in the first six months of the year fell by half from the same period of 2019 as Tunisia closed its borders and travel for Western tourists grew more expensive and complex.

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Foreigners sold over Sh400 million worth of shares, which is almost 90% of the day's turnover.
N.S.E General

July 11 Foreigners sold over Sh1 BILLION worth of shares today, which is double the Sh500 million+ sold yesterday.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2020

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