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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 22nd of July 2020

R_14_14 = 1.23 ▲ (Trend since 5/11 ▲) "Total Confirmed Active Cases" Curve EXPONENTIAL @oli3be

"14 days New Confirmed Active Cases" NOT PEAKING (Wikipedia data readjustment (Recovered))

R_d1_d2= (1+d1_Days_Delta[Cases - Recovered - Deaths])^(d2/d1) --- Worldwide --- #COVID19

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13- July 2020 - The Year of the Virus

My Model is showing 300,000,000 cases by December

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'Mysterious' Incidents in Iran Could Provoke Regime to Confront Israel @haaretzcom
Law & Politics

“the recent attacks on Iran’s centrifuges at Natanz and missile-testing sites. Iran blames Israel, and at some point, my experience with Iran tells me they will respond.”
In a telephone briefing to journalists from somewhere in the Middle East, McKenzie added that the assassination by the United States of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January created a new balance of deterrence against Tehran, but “Iran still holds its goals for regional hegemony and, as part of that, they are intent on ejecting the United States from the region.”
He added that Iran was “calculating” how to undermine the U.S. presence “without crossing a red line,”.

She said that the combination of the policy of maximum pressure being exercised against Iran by the Trump administration, the coronavirus, and the death of Soleimani are encouraging Israel to initiate its own pressure on the regime.

According to Dassa-Kaye, the U.S. administration is not taking steps to restrain Israel, and in effect is giving the Israeli leadership to believe it has a green light from the United States to act. 

She also says that it’s possible to expect additional Israeli moves. But she warns that Israel may be taking a dangerous gamble when it assumes that Iran won’t react, because it’s hard to prevent escalation when the regional situation is already so sensitive.

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The Escalation of 'Shadow War'
Law & Politics

“This is an aggressive show of force and an outright provocation that could trigger another Middle East war.”

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U.K. Government Looked Other Way on Russia Meddling, Report Says @bpolitics
Law & Politics

The U.K. government turned a blind eye to Russian interference in its elections and Russia is so embedded in the British establishment that attempts to curb its influence are focused on damage limitation rather than prevention, a long-delayed report said.

“The report reveals that no one in government knew if Russia interfered or sought to influence the referendum because they did not know want to know,” Stewart Hosie, a Scottish Nationalist member of Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee said in a briefing. 

“They have actively avoided looking for evidence.”

The cross-party committee called for a full intelligence report on Russian attempts to influence the 2016 Brexit referendum and said it was astonished one has not yet been produced, comparing it to the investigations in the U.S. into meddling in its democracy.

“This level of integration -- in ‘Londongrad’ in particular -- means that any measures now being taken by the Government are not preventative but rather constitute damage limitation.”
“The U.K. is clearly a target for Russia’s disinformation campaigns and political influence operation,” the report said

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22-JUN-2020 :: Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
World Of Finance

I thought to myself This all has the Imprimatur of the "political technologist of all of Rus." And non linear War Specialist Vladislav Surkov.

Putin's system was also ripe for export, Mr Surkov added. Foreign governments were already paying close attention, since the Russian "political algorithm" had long predicted the volatility now seen in western democracies.

With a flourish he sponsored lavish arts festivals for the most provocative modern artists in Moscow, then supported Orthodox fundamentalists, dressed all in black and carrying crosses, who in turn attacked the modern-art exhibitions. @TheAtlantic

"It was the first non-linear war," writes Surkov in a new short story, "Without Sky," published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the "fifth world war":

"My portfolio at the @KremlinRussia_E and in government has included ideology, media, political parties, religion, modernization, innovation, foreign relations, and ..." - here he pauses and smiles - "modern art."

A ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is undefinable Adam Curtis

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21-OCT-2019 :: Xinjiang A Million People Are Jailed at China’s Gulags. I managed to escape.
Law & Politics

Here’s what really goes on inside @haaretzcom “children are being taken from their parents, who are confined in concentration camps, and being put in Chinese orphanages,” he says. “Women in the camps are receiving inoculations that make them infertile’’],

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To watch the Daily Briefing is to understand that the Control Machine has a Novice, a hubristic Ignoramus in charge of the Console
Law & Politics
The virus may be the most dangerous adversary America has ever faced. It's like the US was invaded. Tweeted @balajis

The normal defenses fail. It can't be bombed. Bank accounts can't be frozen. Unbreakable morale. No supply chain. Lives off the land. Infinite reinforcements. Fully decentralized.

I wrote a Non Linear and exponential Virus represents the greatest risk to a Control Machine in point of fact #COVID19.
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Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”
Law & Politics

I was reading Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah which sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period.

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.

Countries that I'm worried about. @MaxCRoser

Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.” 

The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.

political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1512

Dollar Index 95.192

Japan Yen 106.94

Swiss Franc 0.9327

Pound 1.2664

Aussie 0.7144

India Rupee 74.7315

South Korea Won 1195.82

Brazil Real 5.1706

Egypt Pound 15.9789

South Africa Rand 16.465

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Brothers Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt attempted to corner the world silver markets in the late 1970s and early 1980s, at one stage holding the rights to more than half of the world's deliverable silver.

During the Hunts' accumulation of the precious metal, silver prices rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to nearly $50 an ounce in January 1980.[2] 

Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later,[2] much of the fall occurring on a single day now known as Silver Thursday, due to changes made to exchange rules regarding the purchase of commodities on margin.[3]

“Hunt had a paranoid world view and it made sense to him to amass silver and hang on to it.”

Most traders buy and sell paper. The actual stuff represented by that paper is delivered to someone else. Hunt wanted the silver. 

He chartered three 707 jet aircraft to haul the metal to warehouses in Switzerland and hired a dozen sharpshooting cowboys to provide security, according to Knight.

When he began buying silver with his brothers in 1973, it cost $2 an ounce and a big consumer was Eastman Kodak to make film.

Before the Hunts were through, seven years later, they’d stockpiled more than 200 million ounces, the price was soaring past $45 an ounce and regulators were preparing to take measures to make sure nothing like what Nelson Bunker Hunt had done would ever happen again.

“They broke the ascent by basically outlawing the buying of silver,” said Knight, who blogs at slopeofhope.com

“Only liquidation orders would be accepted. It’s almost criminal what they did.”

On March 27, 1980 — what came to be known as “silver Thursday” — Comex asked Bache Group, the Hunts’ broker, for $134 million.

The three Hunt brothers had $4.5 billion in silver holdings, $3.5 billion of it profit, Knight said. But they didn’t have $134 million.

A $180 million judgment against them pushed the Hunts into bankruptcy. 

All Bunker Hunt had left from his billions were a few million, a stable of racehorses and a $90 million tax bill to be paid over a 15-year period, Knight said.

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10-MAY-2020 :: #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

―They fancied themselves free,‖ wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.‖

―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.

We are witnessing a Spill Over into EM and Frontier Geographies ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus.

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#SouthAmerica daily, total, and growth rate of #COVID19 diagnosed cases. #Brazil passed 2M cases July 16. @jmlukens

#Peru & #Chile slowing growth since June.  #Columbia, #Argentina,  #Venezuela, & #CostaRica exponentially increasing.  #Ecuador large variance in daily cases suspect.

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Nigeria: Madagascar's herbal drink cannot cure COVID-19

Analysis does not show any proof that Covid-Organics can cure COVID-19,' says Nigerian official

In a reported presented to the Health Ministry on Sunday, National Institute of Pharmaceutical Research and Development (NIPRD) said safety studies show that Covid-Organics (CVO) do not alter the normal physiology of the animals.

In April, Madagascar's President Andry Rajoelina officially launched the CVO -- an organic herbal concoction -- claiming that it can prevent and cure patients of the novel coronavirus.

Obi Adigwe, NIPRD’s director general, told reporters that Madagascar officials were hiding CVO analysis.

“They are hiding a lot of things and I think it is possible that they know that they don’t have strong science backing up their claim. But our own analysis does not show any proof that it can cure COVID-19,” he was quoted by local daily The Punch as saying.

Adigwe said the analysis they presented in the report is more detailed than what they received from Madagascar.

“CVO reduced cough frequency with the maximum dose tested, producing an effect equivalent to that produced by the centrally acting cough-suppressant, dihydrocodeine,” he added.

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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19

Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19 and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said 

’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone. 

“Our pandemic is getting full speed.”

Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa 

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days 300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days 400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa

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South Africa #COVID19 UPDATE 21 July @rid1tweets

• 195 more deaths today 

• 8,170 new cases. Daily doubling rate = 32 days 

• 31,275 tests conducted. Daily positivity rate = 26.1% 

• 13,279 additional recoveries. 

• Active cases = 168,286

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Africa is now accelerating off a Low base

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward On top of all that we know have an Ebola Outbreak in DR Congo

On top of all that we know have an Ebola Outbreak in DR Congo

Congo declares new Ebola epidemic, 1,000 km from eastern outbreak Reuters

Democratic Republic of Congo declared a new Ebola epidemic on Monday in the western city of Mbandaka, more than 1,000 km (620 miles) away from an ongoing outbreak of the same deadly virus in the east.

Health Minister Eteni Longondo said four people who died in Mbandaka were confirmed as positive cases following testing at the national biomedical laboratory in the capital Kinshasa.

“We have a new Ebola epidemic in Mbandaka,” Longondo told reporters. “We are going to very quickly send them the vaccine and medicine.”

The outbreak was confirmed by World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who tweeted: “This outbreak is a reminder that #COVID19 is not the only health threat people face.”

Congo has been struggling to put an end to a nearly two-year-old Ebola outbreak near its eastern borders with Rwanda and Uganda, which has killed more than 2,200 people, the world’s second-deadliest outbreak of the disease on record.

It was days away in April from declaring the end of that outbreak, its tenth since the virus was discovered in 1976, when a new chain of infection was confirmed in the east. However, no new cases have been detected there in over 30 days.

 It killed eighty- eight per cent of the people it infected. Apart from rabies and the human immunodeficiency virus, H.I.V., which causes aids, this was the highest rate of mortality that has been recorded for a human virus. 

Ebola was spread mainly among family members, through contact with bodily fluids and blood. Many of the people in Africa who came down with Ebola had handled Ebola-infected cadavers. It seems that one of Ebola’s paths wends to the living from the dead.

These remain precarious times.

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Is Isaias looking for a final confrontation with his Tigrayan enemies? @martinplaut
Law & Politics

Sometimes months pass and little happens. President Isaias sits by his dam, contemplating and scheming. At others there is a blizzard of activity.

We seem to be in in one of the latter patterns.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy in his latest visit to Eritrea inspected the graduation-parade rehearsals at Sawa for the 33rd Round of the National Service conscripts.

Sawa is the center for military training for Eritrea’s National Service and is normally closed to outside visitors.

No sooner than this trip was over than a high-level delegation arrived in Sudan. 

It was led by Eritrean Chief of Staff, General Filipos Weldeyohanes, and including Eritrea’s National Security Director, Abraha Kasa, and the Commander of the Eritrean Navy, Admiral Humed “Karikare.”

These visits come after President Isaias spent two days earlier this month in Cairo, meeting President al-Sisi.

Al-Monitor helpfully pointed out that it was President Isaias’s fifth visit to Egypt since Sisi came to power in 2014. 

Isaias had previously visited Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on May 2, and Khartoum, Sudan, on June 25.

Al-Monitor, which is based in Washington and generally well informed, went on to suggest that the main issue under discussion was Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam in the Nile, which is keeping Egyptians up at night worried that their water supplies will be interrupted.

Quoting an unnamed diplomat, Al-Monitor said:

“Cairo is open to all regional and international initiatives designed to resolve the dispute over the GERD. Egypt and Eritrea have common interests that are not limited to bilateral files. There is ongoing coordination in handling the regional dossiers in the Red Sea region on the one hand, and the relations with Ethiopia on the other.”

‘Speaking to Al-Monitor on the role Eritrea can play in the conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the GERD, Hamdy Abdel Rahman Hassan, a professor of political sciences at Cairo University, said, “Under the rule of Afwerki, Eritrea [became] a key actor in the power equation in the Horn of Africa given its important geostrategic position. President Afwerki is able to act at the foreign level and exploit the [disputes] to his own interests.”

‘Abdel Rahman Hassan added, “Eritrea’s president already announced his position on the GERD in 2016. He believes that the dam exceeds the development needs of Ethiopia. 

There are multiple signs indicating that the Eritrean position is in favor of Egypt, particularly after the tripartite negotiations [on the dam] have come to a crossroad.”’

If there is one issue that unites Isaias and Abiy it is Tigray’s TPLF. about which they are both almost pathologically obsessive making little or no effort to hold any serious discussions or dialogue.

The TPLF, which is concerned over the future of federalism in Ethiopia in the face of the Prime Minister’s drive to centralise the Ethiopian state, is a thorn in Abiy’s side. Isaias has long regarded the Tigrayans as his predominant enemies.

Prime Minister Abiy postponed Ethiopian elections, saying that Covid-19 made it impossible to hold them in August 2020. 

The decision was rejected by some Ethiopians, including the Tigrayans, who described it as illegal. 

TPLF threatened to hold their own elections in the Tigray region in August and has now elected an election commissioner.

The Ethiopian Prime Minister fears that the Tigrayans are moving towards a de-facto independent state. 

The Tigrayans have repeatedly acted to prevent Ethiopian military equipment including heavy artillery and weapons to be moved from the border with Eritrea.

“Tigray region residents in northern Ethiopia have blocked military trucks withdrawing from the border with Eritrea. Angry youth in the region questioned the movement of troops saying they need clarity about regional security once the military leaves.

They blocked the military trucks from leaving Shire and Zalambessa areas where they had been stationed. It is the second time they have prevented the armoured military vehicles from leaving the border areas.

Ethiopia announced last month, it had started withdrawing its troops from disputed territories along the border with Eritrea as part of the peace deal signed in July between the two countries.”

The suggestion that President Isaias was looking for a final knock-out blow against the TPLF is not new. It was made by an Ethiopian analyst earlier this year.

As Naty Berhane Yifru put it: “Should such tit-for-tat between TPLF and Isaias continue, we may be in for another devastating cycle of conflict, or even possibly the disintegration of Ethiopia. Nobel Peace Prize or not, Abiy’s inability to correctly choose between protecting a region of his own country or cuddling a newfound foreign friend, known the world over for his cruelty against his own people, may cost him dearly.”

In the circumstances, is it fanciful to suggest Isaias and Abiy might be working together to rid themselves of a common enemy, the TPLF, with the support of both Sudan and Egypt? Was the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s visit to Sawa) a pre-cursor for such an offensive, with Sudan agreeing to stand aside and not allow the Tigrayans to use their territory as a rear-base? (Tigray has a border with Sudan).

The price for Abiy might include an agreement with Egypt and Sudan over the filling and operation of GERD, where there are other options still in play – the African Union is due to hold another meeting to discuss the impasse.

A lot of uncertainty, with a rapidly developing situation, but enough to concern anyone who believes in the necessity for continued peace in the region.

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Nigeria's external outlook is bad. There's a current account deficit and large capital outflows covered by reserve losses and errors and omissions. @SergiLanauIIF

The widening parallel FX premium suggests capital controls are under increasing pressure. A chat with the IMF appears unavoidable...

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Kenyan Shilling Hits Record Low as Companies Seek Dollars @markets @eombok
World Currencies

The Kenyan shilling touched a record low on Tuesday as companies increased demand for dollars and foreign reserves declined.

The currency of East Africa’s largest economy weakened 0.19% to 107.92 against dollar by 4:22 p.m. in the capital, Nairobi, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

A close at that level would be the lowest since Dec. 1988, and extends the unit’s loss since beginning of year to 6.4%.

“Some of the corporates were stockpiling dollars to be able to pay dividends to foreign investors,” said Churchill Ogutu, head of research at Nairobi-based Genghis Capital. 

The increase in dollar demand is temporary and pressure on the shilling should ease as companies complete their payouts, Ogutu said.

Kenya’s foreign-exchange reserves dropped for the second consecutive week to $9.67 billion by July 16, compared with $9.7 billion week ago, according to data published by Central Bank of Kenya.

The nation’s public debt jumped to 6.65 trillion shillings ($61.7 billion) by May 20 from 6.44 trillion shillings a month ago, with external debt climbing to almost 3.5 trillion shillings from 3.32 trillion shillings, according to the central bank.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2020

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