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Tuesday 28th of July 2020
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US warplane approaches Shanghai as tensions remain high amid consulate closures @SCMPNews Law & Politics |
US warplanes have again approached the Chinese mainland, including one that came less than 100km away from Shanghai, as tensions between the two countries continue to rise with the tit-for-tat closures of consulates.
A P-8A anti-submarine plane and an EP-3E reconnaissance plane entered the Taiwan Strait, flying near the coast of Zhejiang and Fujian on Sunday, according to the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a Peking University think tank.
It first tweeted about the operation on Sunday morning, later adding that the reconnaissance plane was flying back “after approaching Fujian” and “the southern part of the Taiwan Strait”.
The think tank tweeted again at night, saying the US Navy P-8A was operating near Shanghai, with the USS Rafael Peralta, a guided missile destroyer, following a similar route, asking “might be a joint operation?”.
According to a chart from the think tank, the P-8A came within 76.5km (47.5 miles) of Shanghai, the closest any US planes have come to mainland China in recent years, while the other plane came within 106km of Fujian’s southern coast.
It was the 12th day in a row that US military planes have approached the mainland coast.
On Monday the institute tweeted that “it seems” a US air force RC-135W – another reconnaissance plane – had entered Taiwan’s airspace and asked if anyone could confirm it.
The Taiwanese defence ministry declined to comment on the claims.
But in the late afternoon, the institute tweeted again, saying a EP-3E was conducting close-in reconnaissance of Guangdong less than 100km from the coast.
“At the moment the US military is sending three to five reconnaissance aircraft each day to the South China Sea,” the think tank said, adding the US military planes have come unusually close to mainland airspace several times since April.
“In the first half of 2020 – with much higher frequency, closer distance and more variety of missions – the US aerial reconnaissance in the South China Sea has entered a new phase.”
According to its statistics, US planes made a record 50 sorties over the South China Sea in the first three weeks of July – a time when both countries’ armed forces were conducting training exercises.
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid World Of Finance |
“Everybody, everybody everywhere, has his own movie going, his own scenario, and everybody is acting his movie out like mad, only most people don’t know that is what they’re trapped by, their little script.” ― Tom Wolfe, The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test
US China linguistics is blinking amber
In the Year [2020] of the Virus, which began with a Bang and the Assassination of the iconic Qasem Suleimani, it is as if everything has turned viral, non linear and multiplicative and that Feedback Loops can spin with dizzying speed and out of control, in a blink of an eye.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Last week, the US China ‘’Tit for Tat’’ went ‘’Rat a Tat Tat’’ with the US shutting down the Chinese Consulate in Houston
@marcorubio tweeted Jul 22 #China’s Houston consulate is a massive spy center, forcing it to close is long overdue.
The Chinese shut down Chengdu in response and put the whole shutdown show on a Live Feed
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo added some accelerant
Frequent criticism of “Communist” China and its ruling Communist Party - @SecPompeo used the word 27 times in a speech on Thursday that called a more assertive approach to China the “mission of our time”
"Today we sit wearing masks and watching the pandemic’s body count rise because the CCP failed in its promises." - @SecPompeo
I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory #COVID19
There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.
The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
This is intergalactic Darwinism. @bopinion @nfergus
The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him.
[In fact, the Truth of the Matter, is this. If the US were serious about repelling the Chinese advance then it is a Now or Never moment]
"...the CCP regime is a Marxist-Leninist regime. General Secretary Xi Jinping is a true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology. His ideology informs his decades- long desire for global hegemony built on Chinese Communism." - @SecPompeo
"This isn’t about containment. It’s about a complex new challenge we’ve never faced before: The USSR was closed off from the free world. Communist China is already here, within our borders." - @SecPompeo
It is a PUT UP or SHUT UP MOMENT and @SecPompeo is signaling the US will not SHUT UP
a Chinese H-6K bomber patrolling islands and reefs including Huangyan Dao in the South China Sea. Photo: Xinhua @globaltimesnew
US Allies much derided by President Trump are falling into line.
Australia Joins U.S. in Opposing Beijing’s South China Sea Claim @bpolitics
Australia joined the U.S. in rejecting China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea, calling them “inconsistent” with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
“There is no legal basis for China to draw straight baselines connecting the outermost points of maritime features or ‘island groups’ in the South China Sea,” Australia’s mission to the UN wrote in a filing on Friday.
“Australia rejects China’s claim to ‘historic rights’ or ‘maritime rights and interests’ as established in the ‘long course of historical practice’ in the South China Sea.”
Paper Tiger @NarendraModi will also have to step up notwithstanding that Xi has him in a chokehold.
Geopolitically speaking we have entered ‘’a furin cleavage site’’ moment
It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site
And the Run Up to the November Election is going to add more volatility not less.
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US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. @MLevitt_NP2013 Misc. |
US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. & reported cases will, but it will be over.
Professor @MLevitt_NP2013 is in the company of President @SE_Rajoelina [The Purveyor of the Miracle Cure COVID ORGANICS - which was recently debunked and pronounced an effective Cough mixture]
And of course the Bulldozer Dr. @MagufuliJP
@MagufuliJP #COVID19 was equivalent to “Satan” and that it would naturally be defeated with prayer, since “Satan cannot reside in the body of Christ.”
Sifting the #COVID19 Signal from the Propaganda Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases @OurWorldInData
10-MAY-2020 :: We are trending in the 80,000-100,000 #COVID cases a day now. We have crossed 4,000,000 cases.
02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward Daily Confirmed Cases are in 100,000-120,000 range
Newly reported cases reached a high of 130,400 on June 3.
#Pandemic accelerate ~ 600,000 new cases in 2 days ~ 22,500 new deaths in 3 days @oli3be
We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19 500,000 daily new cases before the end of summer. @oli3be
The current trajectory suggests there will be more than 25 million cases globally by the end of August. #COVID19 @TetotRemi
A virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.
24-FEB-2020 :: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett http://bit.ly/ 38UwVym Jul 23 Global #COVID19 diagnosed case growth average 1.8%. @jmlukens
Jul 25 #USA, #Brazil, & #India lead world with millions of #COVID19 cases. #Russia number four with slowing growth.
#SouthAfrica, #Columbia & #Argentina fast exponential growth since May. #Israel 2nd wave growth rate among fastest in world. #Kenya & #Ethiopia on fast growth watch list.
Africa is entering a Fast Growth ‘’escape’’ velocity Phase
It took 123 days to go from the first case of #coronavirus to 250,000 confirmed cases Africa. From 250,000 to 500,000 21 days. From 500,000 to 750,000 14 days
Africa on track to pass 1 million diagnosed #COVID19 cases shortly @jmlukens
CFR = 4.04% Regression of CFR begins to slow down (new deaths are increasing faster than new cases) @oli3be
5 days :
~ 36,750 new deaths ▲▲▲ ~ 1,350,000 new cases ▲
Conclusions
The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved #COVID19 http://bit.ly/3atix0bNo-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud Immunor & St Georges University of London
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Currency Markets Euro resurgent Dollar slides Drinking the Kool-Aid World Currencies |
Just look at the extraordinary difference in the return to restaurants in Germany and the U.S @bopinionThis explains why the Euro is rallying My Target is 1:25
The $DXY has further to Fall
USD sentiment: Dollar Optimism Index is at the *lowest* 1% of readings over the past 10 years. @sentimentrader
Dollar Index 3 Chart @creentheburner
The PRINTER is still in overdrive
US money supply is +33% so far in 2020. Even Hugo Chavez couldn't keep up with that. @JeffWeniger H/T @Biancoresearch
However, The Dollar is holding versus EM which is an interesting Signal
Conclusions
Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00 Gold $2,200+ Silver $50.00+ EM a Sell
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TRAVEL AND TOURISM @FT Tourism, Travel & Transport |
Tourism was one of the sectors most impacted by the strict lockdowns and travel bans in March and April. Global arrivals are set to shrink by between 58 and 78 per cent year on year in 2020, according the UN World Trade Tourism Organization.
The body estimates 100 million to 120 million direct tourism jobs are at risk.
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A Mighty Short Squeeze May Be Building in Gold @markets @johnauthers @Lvieweconomics Commodities |
This is the third major spike in the modern era since the Bretton Woods tie of the dollar to gold was abandoned in 1971.
It certainly looks from the chart as though gold is bound for the unprecedented level of $2,000 per ounce.
The GLD ETF now has a market cap of $75 billion, having grown at more than twice the rate of the gold price over the last five years.
Meanwhile, speculative positioning in futures suggests the market is less overblown than it was earlier this year:
More intriguingly, the rise in trading in “financial” gold — without taking physical delivery of any bars or coins — might bring with it the seeds of a big rise.
The theory, which gets technical, is explained here. The issue, in short, is that far more investors are opting to take physical delivery when contracts end, rather than roll them over.
This chart from Longview Economics shows the number of contracts that are being converted into physical deliveries.
Longview calculates that the bullion banks have a short position worth $39 billion at current prices, the highest since records began in 2006:
The concern is that we will see something like an old-fashioned bank run.Just like in a bank run, therefore, if too many gold future holders decide to take delivery of physical gold at the same time (rather than simply rolling their contracts), then it’s likely the swap dealers won’t be able to satisfy all those demands (i.e. the physical gold isn’t there/available).
If so, then this will be one of those ‘rare’ occasions when the message of the positioning, sentiment and other models is wrong – and markets don’t immediately mean revert but enter into one of their occasional parabolic price moves.
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Gold trades over $1,900 an ounce @markets [TARGET $2,200 BEFORE YEAR END] The Message Behind Gold’s Rally: The World Economy Is in Trouble @business Commodities |
It’s easy to forget now but there was a time early on in the pandemic when the price of gold was in freefall.
It was a curious thing, what with the virus sparking a collapse in the global economy, and it would prove in time to be one of the great head-fakes in the recent history of financial markets.
For the pandemic of 2020 would soon show itself to be the driving force behind one of the most ferocious rallies the gold market has ever seen.
At the close of trading in New York on Friday, bullion had spiraled to $1,902.02 an ounce, some 30% higher than the low it hit in March and just 1% off a record high set back in 2011.
The virus has unleashed a torrent of forces that are conspiring to fuel relentless demand for the perceived safety from turmoil that gold provides.
There’s the fear of further government-ordered lockdowns; and politicians’ decision to push through unprecedented stimulus packages; and central bankers’ decision to print money faster than they ever have before to finance that spending; and the plunge in inflation-adjusted bond yields into negative territory in the U.S.; and the dollar’s sudden decline against the euro and yen.
Meanwhile, gold posted its seventh weekly gain on Friday, and analysts don’t expect the increases to end anytime soon.
“When interest rates are zero or near zero, then gold is an attractive medium to have because you don’t have to worry about not getting interest on your gold,” Mark Mobius, co-founder at Mobius Capital Partners, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
“I would be buying now and continue to buy.”
The crisis a decade ago was all about banks, said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at Swiss refiner and dealer MKS PAMP Group, who nows sees gold “pointing towards $2,000.”
“This time, to be honest, I do not see the end of the tunnel,” he said, at least until U.S. elections in November.
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22-JUN-2020 :: Gold is a No Brainer targets $2,000.00 Commodities |
to the bottom.
This is a global synchronized debasement. @TaviCostaSILVER
#SILVER chart @creentheburner [My Target is $50.00]
The silver rally likely far from over. Silver to money supply is still near historic lows! A parabolic move looks to be ahead of us. Call it “The Big Long”. @TaviCosta
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Brothers Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt attempted to corner the world silver markets in the late 1970s and early 1980s, at one stage holding the rights to more than half of the world's deliverable silver. Commodities |
During the Hunts' accumulation of the precious metal, silver prices rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to nearly $50 an ounce in January 1980.
Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later,[2] much of the fall occurring on a single day now known as Silver Thursday, due to changes made to exchange rules regarding the purchase of commodities on margin.[3]
“Hunt had a paranoid world view and it made sense to him to amass silver and hang on to it.”
Most traders buy and sell paper. The actual stuff represented by that paper is delivered to someone else. Hunt wanted the silver.
He chartered three 707 jet aircraft to haul the metal to warehouses in Switzerland and hired a dozen sharpshooting cowboys to provide security, according to Knight.
When he began buying silver with his brothers in 1973, it cost $2 an ounce and a big consumer was Eastman Kodak to make film.
Before the Hunts were through, seven years later, they’d stockpiled more than 200 million ounces, the price was soaring past $45 an ounce and regulators were preparing to take measures to make sure nothing like what Nelson Bunker Hunt had done would ever happen again.
“They broke the ascent by basically outlawing the buying of silver,” said Knight, who blogs at slopeofhope.com.
“Only liquidation orders would be accepted. It’s almost criminal what they did.”
On March 27, 1980 — what came to be known as “silver Thursday” — Comex asked Bache Group, the Hunts’ broker, for $134 million.
The three Hunt brothers had $4.5 billion in silver holdings, $3.5 billion of it profit, Knight said. But they didn’t have $134 million.
A $180 million judgment against them pushed the Hunts into bankruptcy.
All Bunker Hunt had left from his billions were a few million, a stable of racehorses and a $90 million tax bill to be paid over a 15-year period, Knight said.
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Poor Countries Are Running Out of Time to Get Rich @BloombergQuint World Of Finance |
The United Nations currently predicts that by 2027, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country.
Estimates suggest India and Nigeria will together add 470 million people in the next three decades — almost a quarter of the world’s population increase to 2050.
According to a new study from the University of Washington, however, several developing nations may find their so-called demographic dividend much less of a boon than anticipated.
Published in the Lancet, the UW study has improved on the UN’s model by modelling fertility differently and making its decline more sensitive to the availability of contraception and the spread of education.
In many parts of India, for instance, the total fertility rate — the expected average number of children born to each woman — is already well below the replacement rate of 2.1 and dropping faster than expected.
The study, which also tries to account for the feedback loops between education, mortality and migration, concludes that populations around the world are going to start shrinking sooner and faster than projected.
South Asia, for example, would have 600 million fewer people in 2100 than previously predicted thanks to lower-than-expected levels of fertility.
Instead of growing throughout, India’s population would peak in 2050 and then decline to 70% of that number by the end of the century. By that point, China’s population would be about half its current size.
On the other hand, sub-Saharan Africa would continue to grow, with Nigeria entering the 22nd century as the world’s second-largest country, behind India and just ahead of China and Pakistan.
For policymakers in India and several other developing nations, this isn’t good news.
As the authors of the UW study point out, a shrinking global population has “positive implications for the environment, climate change, and food production.” But it also means time is running out — indeed, may already have run out — on those nations’ development clocks.
China has been truly fortunate in its demographics; it peaked at the right time. Working-age Chinese people, both in total numbers and as a share of the population, crested just when world trade was most open.
This made the possibilities for manufacturing-led growth easier to seize than they had been for centuries.
Those countries that come next — India and Pakistan in particular — will confront a more closed world.
And, worse, they now know that it is people currently in the workforce, or children in school, who over their lifetimes will have to lift the country to prosperity.
For countries whose populations will begin to decline in the 2040s, this generation of workers and the next is all there is: They must, like their Chinese counterparts in the last two decades, push their countries from farm to factory and beyond.
Right now, India’s boosters tout the fact that its working-age population swells by a million people a month, propelling economic growth.
If that demographic push runs out sooner than expected, growth will depend on individual productivity, not sheer numbers.
That means education and healthcare and similar “soft” infrastructure no longer look like rich-country luxuries.
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Russian interest in the African nation of Tanzania has soared after Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova named it as one of three countries to resume flights with Russia from August 1. @RT_com Africa |
According to Yandex, the most popular Russian search engine, the number of people searching for the tropical East African country shot through the roof.
“On Friday, July 24, interest in Tanzania on Yandex Search soared,” Yandex said. “The number of requests about the country increased 65 times, compared to Thursday.”
Yandex users were most interested in Tanzania’s location, how the country looks, flight times, reviews from tourists, and the weather, according to the company.
On Friday, the Russian Government announced the resumption of flights with Turkey, Great Britain, and Tanzania, beginning on August 1.
Following the news, Yandex’s travel service saw a spike in interest for all three locations.
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.@OldMutualZW to Move Zimbabwe Listing as Currency War Escalates @markets Africa |
The insurer agreed to move its listing to a new bourse in the country that will only deal in foreign currency, three people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The Zimbabwe dollar has weakened to 72.1470 per U.S. dollar on a foreign-currency auction system that was introduced after a currency peg of 25 was dropped last month.
Terminating Old Mutual’s listing paves the way for dealing to resume on the Harare-based ZSE -- which was abruptly halted on June 28 -- once Zimbabwe’s Financial Intelligence Unit has completed a probe into trading on the bourse.
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word Africa |
We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world.
Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!
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“Truth be told, there will be more,” Kenyatta said of deaths. “The question is whether we’ll emerge with low number of deaths, or we’ll suffer a catastrophe.” @bpolitics #COVID19 Kenyan Economy |
Kenya extended a night curfew and banned alcohol sales in eateries after Covid-19 cases in the East African nation more than doubled in the three weeks since the government lifted restrictions on movement and religious gatherings.
Cases jumped to 17,603 by Sunday from 8,067 on July 6
The rate of recovery has also accelerated and more than tripled in the last three weeks to 7,743 people.
About 280 people have died of the disease, President Uhuru Kenyatta said Monday in a televised address from the capital, Nairobi.
Kenyan markets have taken a beating with the value of equities traded in the second quarter dropping 10% and bonds by 13%.
The currency fell a record low 108.31 shillings against the dollar last week.
“The economic health of the country is tied to keeping numbers low,” Kenyatta said.
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