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Wednesday 05th of August 2020
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13-JAN-2020 :: 2020 Opens with a Bang. Law & Politics |
Its been an extraordinary opening to the new decade worthy of the best cinematic sequences ever, something like the ‘Ride of the Valkyries’ helicopter scene in Francis Ford Coppola’s 1978’s classic Apocalypse Now.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb referenced another Francis Ford Coppola classic ‘’The Godfather’’
its been very cinematic and stream of consciousness in 2020. The Shoo- ting down of #PS752 out of the night Sky a couple of nights before the luminous ‘’Wolf Moon’’
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On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables Nassim Nicholas Taleb∗†, Yaneer Bar-Yam‡, and Pasquale Cirillo @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo World Of Finance |
(i)– Forecasting single variables in fat-tailed domains is in violation of both common sense and probability theory.
(ii)– Pandemics are extremely fat-tailed events, with potentially destructive tail risk. Any model ignoring this is necessarily flawed.
(iii)– Science is not about making single points predictions but about understanding properties (which can sometimes be tested by single point estimates and predictions).
(iv)– Sound risk management is concerned with extremes, tails and their full properties, and not with averages, the bulk of a distribution or naive estimates.
(v)– Naive fortune-cookie evidentiary methods fail to work under both risk management and fat tails, because the absence of raw evidence can play a large role in the properties.
(vi)– There are feedback mechanisms between forecast and reaction that affects the validity of some predictions.
(vii)– Individuals risks fail to translate into systemic risks under multiplicative processes.
The lognormal has milder tails than the Pareto which has been shown to represent pandemics.
pandemic deaths are patently fat-tailed
Even more, the estimated tail parameter α is smaller than 1, suggesting an apparently infinite risk [6], in line with destructive events like wars [4], [5], and the so-called "dismal" theorem [39]. Pandemics do therefore represent a source of existential risk.
More uncertainty in a system makes precautionary decisions more obvious. If you are uncertain about the skills of the pilot, you get off the plane when it is still possible to do so.
And if people take action boarding up windows, and evacuating, the claim "look it was not so devastating", that someone might afterwards make, should be considered closer to a lunatic conspiracy fringe than scientific discourse.
Ancestral wisdom has numerous versions such as Cineri nunc medicina datur (one does not give remedies to the dead), or the famous saying by Seneca Serum est cavendi tempus in mediis malis (you don’t wait for peril to run its course to start defending yourself).
Notice in fact that 1014 observations are needed for the sample mean of a Pareto "80/20", with α ≈ 1.13, to emulate the gains in reliability of the sample average of a 30-data-points sample from a Normal distribution [33].
For this and other reasons specified later, the application of a non-naive precautionary principle [23] appears to be the viable solution in front of potentially existential risks.
Figures 1 and 3 show the extent of the problem of forecasting the average (and so other quantities) under fat tails. Most of the information is away from the center of the distribution.
The most likely observations are far from the true mean of the phenomenon and very large samples are needed for reliable estimation.
In the lognormal case of Figure 1, 85% of all observations fall below the mean; half the observations even fall below 13% of the mean.
In the Paretian situation of Figure 3, mimicking the distribution of pandemic deaths, the situation gets even worse: the mean is so far away that we will almost never observe it.
Implication: one cannot naively translate between the rate of growth r and XT , because errors in r could be small (but surely not zero), but their impact will be explosive on X, because of exponentiation.
Simply, if r is exponentially distributed (or part of that family), X will be power law. The tail α is a direct function of the variance: the higher the variance of r, the thicker the tail of X.
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Chinese scientist who fled to US claims coronavirus originated from ‘military lab’ Misc. |
Dr Li Meng-Yan, a specialist in virology at the Hong Kong School of Public Health, says she “clearly assessed” that Covid-19 was from a laboratory linked to the People’s Liberation Army.
China has already faced allegations it covered the early days of the coronavirus outbreak and angrily dismissed claims that the virus could come from a lab.
Dr Li, however, claimed that the source of the outbreak was a military lab she discovered while studying person-to-person transmission of the virus.
Speaking in a live interview with Lude Press, she claimed she was not taken seriously when she reported her findings to her boss, Taiwan News reports.
Dr Li said, “At that time, I had clearly assessed that the virus came from a Chinese Communist Party military laboratory.
“The Wuhan wet market was just being used as a decoy. ”
“He warned me… ‘Hands off the red line,’” Dr Li said, referring to Beijing’s unspoken limits on such investigations. |
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Dear @MaEllenSirleaf & @HelenClarkNZ The starting point of your enquiry has to be precisely what is being precluded below because “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” #COVID19 Law & Politics |
I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.
According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”
However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
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Gold Barrels Past $2,000 With Stage Set for Prices to Rally More @markets $2,030.50 Commodities |
“The stage has been set for gold to continue to climb higher,” Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott Inc., said in a report.
“We see increased fiscal spending ahead, extremely accommodative monetary policy in place for years and a challenging economic recovery, as stated by the Fed.”
Shifts in the U.S. bond market have also underpinned gold’s meteoric ascent, with an added lift from a weaker dollar.
Real yields on 10-year Treasuries have collapsed below zero and hit a record low below -1% on Tuesday. After sinking 3.3% in July, the U.S. currency is now lower in 2020.
Spot gold rose as much as 0.6% to a record $2,031.14 an ounce and traded at $2,019.74 at 8:51 a.m.
in Singapore, while most-active futures traded as high as $2,048.60 on the Comex.
Spot silver climbed as much as 1.3% to $26.3473 an ounce, the highest since 2013, before trading lower.
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Gold touched above $2,000/oz @EdVanDerWalt Commodities |
“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’ |
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“These are things that are outside the reach of most Zimbabweans. It’s like the people of Zimbabwe are in a chokehold,” @efie41209591 told @ReutersAfrica Law & Politics |
Tsitsi Dangarembga, whose latest book “This Mournable Body” has been nominated for a Booker Prize, was bundled into a police truck while holding placards on Friday and charged with breaking the COVID-19 lockdown to hold an illegal gathering.
Bailed pending trial after a night in jail, the 61-year-old said she could not keep quiet while neglect and mismanagement left Zimbabweans unable to afford a decent meal and healthcare.
“These are things that are outside the reach of most Zimbabweans. It’s like the people of Zimbabwe are in a chokehold,” she told Reuters from her home in Harare’s affluent Borrowdale suburb.
“It’s a matter of survival really.”
Security forces deployed on Friday to block planned opposition protests over corruption and economic hardships.
Foes say Mnangagwa is behaving like his autocratic predecessor Robert Mugabe and exploiting the coronavirus crisis as cover.
Popular anger is high over inflation above 700%, hospital strikes, and shortages of medicines and foreign currency.
Mnangagwa blames the opposition, Western sanctions, droughts and the pandemic. “Dark forces both inside and outside have tampered with our growth and prosperity,” he said in a speech on Tuesday.
Dangarembga said she had been lucky after rights groups said some activists rounded up over Friday’s unrest were abducted and tortured. The government denies that.
“When we got into the (police) truck one of the first thing that happened is I was asked ‘who is paying you?’ I was very outraged by that question,” she recalled.
“What was going through my mind was:’what do we do now? The main thing is not to escalate the situation, we have not done anything wrong so we shouldn’t be frightened’.”
Dangarembga noted that a new hashtag #ZimbabweansLivesMatter was helping focus global attention.
“Trying to change Zimbabwe for the better is going to be a long engagement and we have to strategise,” she said.
Dangarembga’s first novel “Nervous Conditions” was part of Zimbabwe’s school curriculum and won the African section of the Commonwealth Writers Prize in 1989.
She also wrote “Neria”, Zimbabwe’s most successful film.
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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Kenya #AFROWeekly Health Emergencies Bulletin Africa |
The COVID-19 outbreak in Kenya is escalating rapidly, with 46 out of 47 counties now affected and cases doubling around every two weeks, although deaths remain low. High rates of health worker infection in private health facilities are also a concern.
Nairobi City and Mombasa Counties have the highest attack rates of COVID-19 at 301.9 and 171.6 per 100 000 population respectively. This is in comparison to an attack rate of 44.9 per 100 000 population overall and indicates that these areas need specific targeted interventions.
Currently, 22 053 (97%) of the total number of confirmed cases are known to be local transmissions.
In the 24 hours up to 2 August 2020, a total of 5 393 samples were tested, bringing the cumulative total of tests in the country since the start of the outbreak in March 2020 to 304 287.
The laboratory testing rate currently stands at 6 284 samples per 1 million people. The test positivity rate is 7.1%.
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Hair scavenged from Nairobi dump ends up in salon amid COVID-19 pandemic @ReutersAfrica Kenyan Economy |
NAIROBI (Reuters) - Stylist Julia Wanja picks her way delicately through piles of food waste, discarded masks, rubber gloves and other rubbish at Nairobi’s Dandora dumpsite, looking for used hair extensions she can clean and resell to customers.
The pandemic means fewer clients with less money and she is cutting down on costs by cleaning and reselling hair from the dumpsite.
Officials direct trucks to dump their loads depending on where the waste has come from. Domestic and commercial waste - which includes bags of hair extensions discarded by other salons - goes to different sections. Medical waste is usually incinerated.
“I have fewer customers,” the mother of three told Reuters from her wooden stall near the Dandora dumpsite as vehicle horns blared in the background. “If you are not going to work, there is no need to style your hair.”
Wanja said she washes the used hair extensions carefully using detergent, Dettol and hot water. Most of her customers trust her to wash the hair well, she said, although a few like to clean it themselves as well.
Like other scavengers, she wears a mask to sort through the trash.
“We cannot allow anyone to enter the dumpsite without a mask on,” fellow scavenger Denis Githaiga said, as he ripped through piles of plastic bags.
Wanja has been selling second-hand hair since 2008, but says there is more demand now since many people cannot afford new extensions.
“New hair is more expensive than second-hand hair,” the 38-year-old said. “People don’t have money.”
Wanja’s customers say as long as the hair has been cleaned, they do not mind where it is from. The hair looks new: long, luxuriant locks hang from the walls in Wanja’s stall, or are perched on a battered styrofoam head.
“The hair bought new from a shop and bought used only differs in price. But once it is plaited, there is no difference,” said Cecilia Githigia as Wanja’s fingers worked a weave into her hair.
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Africa’s Worst Stock Market Faces More Pain From Bank Earnings @markets @eombok @adengat N.S.E General |
There is no recovery in sight yet for Africa’s worst-performing stock market as investors look to bank earnings this month to assess how hard the coronavirus pandemic hit Kenyan lenders.
Net foreign-investor outflows and reduced dollar earnings led the Nairobi Securities Exchange 20 Share Index to slide for seven consecutive months through July, falling to the lowest in 17 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Investors from outside Kenya increased their trading in the three months through June, ramping up net foreign-portfolio outflows to 10.3 billion shillings ($95.5 million), compared with an inflow of 1.17 million shillings a year ago. |
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