Welcome to RICH.CO.KE - Satchu's Wrapup

Macro Thoughts

24-FEB-2020 :: a “V- shaped” recovery #COVID19 [is a FANTASY]

It's global liquidity crisis, greatly accelerated by the greatest economic contraction in the human history since WWII. @vtchakarova

27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid

If the GFC unleashed the first structural crisis of the Global System, Covid-19 might result in the first global systemic crisis. Everything is connected.

After a $120 rally from my $1875 support in $GOLD, we're at my 1st target ~$2000 @AdamMancini4

Conclusions

Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00 Gold $2,200+ Silver $50.00+ EM a Sell

My view remains its in the process of building a major bullish continuation pattern on daily chart since the Aug 7 peak. It may take time, but looking for it to ultimately resolve higher to $2300+

$GOLD 15min @LalaCali9 1996.0

Home Thoughts

It certainly feels like a decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.

Death Valley hits 54.4C - in what could be highest temperature ever recorded on Earth @SkyNews

Food, Climate & Agriculture

Wuhan wave. People watch a performance as they cool off in a swimming pool in Wuhan, China @AFP

China

VIDEO: Crowds packed out a water park over the weekend in the central Chinese city of #Wuhan, where the #coronavirus first emerged late last year @AFP

China

VIDEO: Flag of China Crowds packed out a water park over the weekend in the central Chinese city of #Wuhan, where the #coronavirus first emerged late last year, keen to party as the city edges back to normal life

24-FEB-2020 :: The Viral Moment has Arrived #COVID19 #coronavirus #2019nCoV

Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 11 There is no remembrance of former things,[c] nor will there be any remembrance of later things[d] yet to be among those who come after.

If Andromeda were brighter, this is how big it would be in our night sky. @waitbutwhy

If I had to choose one photo that describes 2020, this would be it @ValaAfshar

The Way We Live Now

Well Kenya is just bloody beautiful @_Will_Brown

Political Reflections

.@BorisJohnson spoke of ‘’Smart cities [which] will pullulate with sensors, all joined together by the “internet of things”, bollards com- muning invisibly with lamp posts..... [and asked] How do you plead with an algorithm?’’

Just look at him while workers are chanting: "Go Away! Go Away" @franakviacorka

21-OCT-2019 :: Ryszard Kapucinski also said: “If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not reassemble, we say the revolution is over.” It is not over.

BELARUSIAN LEADER LUKASHENKO TELLS WORKERS THERE WON'T BE NEW PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS UNTIL THEY KILL HIM - BELARUSIAN MEDIA @DeItaOne

The current modus operandi is running on empty

"We have stopped pretending @Huawei is an innocent telecommunications company. We have called it what it is – a national security threat – and taken action accordingly." - @SecPompeo @NAR

U.S. to tighten restrictions on Huawei access to technology, chips -sources - Reuters News @PriapusIQ

China risks losing Taiwan ‘forever’ due to its actions in Hong Kong, says strategist @CNBC

The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’

“What has happened in Hong Kong has lost Taiwan for China forever,” he said.

“Despite the non-existence of a formal treaty between the U.S. and Taiwan for mutual defense – or defense of Taiwan by America – in reality, if there was any such move by China militarily against Taiwan, the U.S. would most definitely act,” said Roche.

That would move U.S.-China relations “from cold war to hot war,” he said.

I am sure Xi sees Hong Kong and Taiwan like a virus and he is looking to impose a quarantine just like he has imposed on Xinjiang. 7 OCT 19 :: China turns 70

Geopolitically speaking we have entered ‘’a furin cleavage site’’ moment

Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19 @BBCFuture

24-FEB-2020 :: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett

Imagine you are offered a deal with your bank, where your money doubles every three days. If you invest just $1 today, roughly how long will it take for you to become a millionaire?

Would it be a year? Six months? 100 days?

The precise answer is 60 days from your initial investment, when your balance would be exactly $1,048,576. Within a further 30 days, you’d have earnt more than a billion. And by the end of the year, you’d have more than $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 – an “undecillion” dollars.

If your estimates were way out, you are not alone. Many people consistently underestimate how fast the value increases – a mistake known as the “exponential growth bias”

Many people assume that coronavirus spreads in a linear fashion, but unchecked it's exponential (Credit: Nigel Hawtin)

Our tendency to overlook exponential growth has been known for millennia. According to an Indian legend, the brahmin Sissa ibn Dahir was offered a prize for inventing an early version of chess. He asked for one grain of wheat to be placed on the first square on the board, two for the second square, four for the third square, doubling each time up to the 64th square. The king apparently laughed at the humility of ibn Dahir’s request – until his treasurers reported that it would outstrip all the food in the land (18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains in total).If the number of grains on a chess board doubled for each square, the 64th would 'hold' 18 quintillion (Credit: Getty Images)According to various epidemiological studies, without intervention the number of new Covid-19 cases doubles every three to four days, which was the reason that so many scientists advised rapid lockdowns to prevent the pandemic from spiralling out of control.“To expect people to use the logarithmic scale to extrapolate the growth path of a disease is to demand a very high level of cognitive ability,” the authors told me in an email.

We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.

Year of the Virus

A rich 1-pager #SARSCoV2 vaccine infographic (I've divided in 2) which nicely deconstructs the complex, high- velocity race @PostGraphics @EricTopol

No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud

The Rush for a Vaccine Leaves Little Recourse for Anyone It Harms

Americans who suffer adverse reactions to coronavirus vaccines that the U.S. is racing to develop will have a hard time getting compensated for injuries from the drugs.

That’s because pandemic-related claims for vaccines will be routed to a rarely used federal program set up to encourage drugmakers to help combat public health emergencies.

It spares pharmaceutical and device makers from costly liability lawsuits in exchange for taxpayers compensating injured patients -- though it doesn’t guarantee there’s funding to do so.

Since it began in 2009, the program has paid out less than $6 million, and it has yet to receive any dedicated U.S. government funding for Covid-19.

“In the best case scenario, this is going to be a big deal,” said Richard Topping, a former Justice Department attorney who represented the U.S. during disputes over the debunked link between vaccines and autism in children.

“Worst case scenario? It will be a crisis.”

“No vaccine or drug is 100% safe,” said Cody Meissner, head of the Pediatric Infectious Disease Division at Tufts Medical Center and former chairman of the Advisory Commission on Childhood Vaccines.

But benefits exceed the risks. “An adverse reaction for any vaccine is much less than catching the illness and having complications.”

They amount to a “get out of jail free card” for drugmakers, said Hunter Shkolnik, of Napoli Shkolnik, who has represented many clients in pharmaceutical product liability cases and says the government only pays lost earnings and medical costs.

Efforts are underway to prevent potential harm from Covid vaccines, said Martin Kulldorff, a biostatistician and professor at Harvard Medical School, who is part of a CDC group that analyzes weekly patient reports.

“If the first vaccine comes out and it turns out there’s a serious adverse reaction and we didn’t pick it up until there’s been millions of doses, that’s going to reduce trust, not just in any subsequent Covid-19 vaccine but also vaccines in general,” Kulldorff said.

International Markets

REMINDER - STOCKS TO GDP RATIO HIGHEST IN HUMAN HISTORY @mcm_ct

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ

$DXY 4h about to possibly break down out of bear flag. @DollarCostAvg 92.643

Euro 1.1894

Dollar Index 92.643

Japan Yen 105.55

Swiss Franc 0.9055

Pound 1.3140

Aussie 0.7221

India Rupee 74.8275

South Korea Won 1185.58

Brazil Real 5.5096

Egypt Pound 15.944

South Africa Rand 17.499

$EURUSD 15min Chart: @FXPIPTITAN 1.1894

Manhattan rents are plunging; as per Miller Samuel @ Douglas Elliman, July’s vacancy rate climbed to a record 4.3% & there were 13,117 apartments listed (most since 2006) ... median rent fell -10% y/y to $3,167 @LizAnnSonders

RealEstate, Housing & Construction

TLSA market cap closed at $342 billion. It is now the 10th largest company by market cap. @biancoresearch

Commodities

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

August 13, 2018 And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’ [In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]

Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 42.79

Minerals, Oil & Energy

Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets

04.09.2018 no-one except die-hard Erdogan-supporting Turkish nationalists is prepared to throw good money after money gone bad on the basis of Erdogan's hocus pocus monetary policy Mr. Satchu told Sputnik.

Emerging Markets

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cases 1,118,814 Deaths 25,618 Recoveries 834,262

Year of the Virus

A Fast Growth ‘’escape’’ velocity Phase #COVID19

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

South Africa to Loosen Coronavirus Lockdown Starting Monday @bpolitics

Taiwan officially opens its new representative office in Hargeisa, #Somaliland. @HornDiplomat

South Africa will ease lockdown rules at midnight on Monday, lifting most remaining restrictions on economic activity as it moves to so-called coronavirus alert level 2.

These are some of the key provisions outlined in the Government Gazette:

Permitted Activities

Restaurants, bars, guest houses, lodges and gymnasiums can reopen on condition they observe strict health protocols.

Inter-provincial travel for leisure purposes is allowed.

Alcohol sales for off-site consumption are allowed between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m., Mondays to Thursdays.

Bars, restaurants and other licensed outlets can sell alcohol for on-site consumption until 10 p.m. throughout the week.

Sales of tobacco products and e-cigarettes can resume.

Beaches will be reopened.

Social visits are allowed.

Remaining Restrictions

A 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. curfew is still in place.

Most international travel remains banned.

Cruise ships and night clubs aren’t allowed to operate.

A maximum of 50 people can attend funerals, concerts, weddings and other events.

Bars and gyms can admit a maximum of 50 clients at a time.

Accommodation establishments and casinos can operate at half their normal capacity.

Spectators aren’t allowed at sporting matches and no international events are permitted.

Visits to old-age homes, prisons, police holding cells and health facilities aren’t permitted.

Buses and taxis may only operate at 70% of their normal capacity for long-distance trips.

Wearing face masks is mandatory in public places.

In an attempt to re-anchor inflation expectations and maintain a positive policy rate, the #DRC #BCC recently increased the benchmark interest rate by 1,100 bps to 18.5%. @NKCAfrica

Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rose to 837.53% in July, up from 737.26% in June, data out of @zimstat @newswireZW

The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions

Today shows. Month-on-month inflation in July was 16.65%, 12.79 percentage points slower than the June rate of 29.44%

Just like that SADC Summit concludes and nothing on Zimbabwe, the theme was on peace and security @KhayaJames

The Mind Game that ZANU-PF played on its citizens has evapo- rated in a puff of smoke.

Just like that SADC Summit concludes and nothing on Zimbabwe, the theme was on peace and security. Not even an acknowledgment that something abnormal happened in Harare, regional institutions certainly do need reforms and I get it, there's sovereignty etc this is shocking!!!!