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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 18th of August 2020

It's global liquidity crisis, greatly accelerated by the greatest economic contraction in the human history since WWII. @vtchakarova
World Of Finance

If the GFC unleashed the first structural crisis of the Global System, Covid-19 might result in the first global systemic crisis. Everything is connected.

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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance


Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00 Gold $2,200+ Silver $50.00+ EM a Sell

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After a $120 rally from my $1875 support in $GOLD, we're at my 1st target ~$2000 @AdamMancini4

My view remains its in the process of building a major bullish continuation pattern on daily chart since the Aug 7 peak. It may take time, but looking for it to ultimately resolve higher to $2300+

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VIDEO: Crowds packed out a water park over the weekend in the central Chinese city of #Wuhan, where the #coronavirus first emerged late last year @AFP

VIDEO: Flag of China Crowds packed out a water park over the weekend in the central Chinese city of #Wuhan, where the #coronavirus first emerged late last year, keen to party as the city edges back to normal life

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China risks losing Taiwan ‘forever’ due to its actions in Hong Kong, says strategist @CNBC
Law & Politics

“What has happened in Hong Kong has lost Taiwan for China forever,” he said.

“Despite the non-existence of a formal treaty between the U.S. and Taiwan for mutual defense – or defense of Taiwan by America – in reality, if there was any such move by China militarily against Taiwan, the U.S. would most definitely act,” said Roche.

That would move U.S.-China relations “from cold war to hot war,” he said.

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Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19 @BBCFuture
World Of Finance

Imagine you are offered a deal with your bank, where your money doubles every three days. If you invest just $1 today, roughly how long will it take for you to become a millionaire?

Would it be a year? Six months? 100 days?

The precise answer is 60 days from your initial investment, when your balance would be exactly $1,048,576. Within a further 30 days, you’d have earnt more than a billion. And by the end of the year, you’d have more than $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 – an “undecillion” dollars.

If your estimates were way out, you are not alone. Many people consistently underestimate how fast the value increases – a mistake known as the “exponential growth bias” 

Many people assume that coronavirus spreads in a linear fashion, but unchecked it's exponential (Credit: Nigel Hawtin)

Our tendency to overlook exponential growth has been known for millennia. According to an Indian legend, the brahmin Sissa ibn Dahir was offered a prize for inventing an early version of chess. He asked for one grain of wheat to be placed on the first square on the board, two for the second square, four for the third square, doubling each time up to the 64th square. The king apparently laughed at the humility of ibn Dahir’s request – until his treasurers reported that it would outstrip all the food in the land (18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains in total).If the number of grains on a chess board doubled for each square, the 64th would 'hold' 18 quintillion (Credit: Getty Images)According to various epidemiological studies, without intervention the number of new Covid-19 cases doubles every three to four days, which was the reason that so many scientists advised rapid lockdowns to prevent the pandemic from spiralling out of control.“To expect people to use the logarithmic scale to extrapolate the growth path of a disease is to demand a very high level of cognitive ability,” the authors told me in an email. 

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The Rush for a Vaccine Leaves Little Recourse for Anyone It Harms

Americans who suffer adverse reactions to coronavirus vaccines that the U.S. is racing to develop will have a hard time getting compensated for injuries from the drugs.

That’s because pandemic-related claims for vaccines will be routed to a rarely used federal program set up to encourage drugmakers to help combat public health emergencies. 

It spares pharmaceutical and device makers from costly liability lawsuits in exchange for taxpayers compensating injured patients -- though it doesn’t guarantee there’s funding to do so.

Since it began in 2009, the program has paid out less than $6 million, and it has yet to receive any dedicated U.S. government funding for Covid-19.

“In the best case scenario, this is going to be a big deal,” said Richard Topping, a former Justice Department attorney who represented the U.S. during disputes over the debunked link between vaccines and autism in children. 

“Worst case scenario? It will be a crisis.”

“No vaccine or drug is 100% safe,” said Cody Meissner, head of the Pediatric Infectious Disease Division at Tufts Medical Center and former chairman of the Advisory Commission on Childhood Vaccines. 

But benefits exceed the risks. “An adverse reaction for any vaccine is much less than catching the illness and having complications.”

They amount to a “get out of jail free card” for drugmakers, said Hunter Shkolnik, of Napoli Shkolnik, who has represented many clients in pharmaceutical product liability cases and says the government only pays lost earnings and medical costs.

Efforts are underway to prevent potential harm from Covid vaccines, said Martin Kulldorff, a biostatistician and professor at Harvard Medical School, who is part of a CDC group that analyzes weekly patient reports.

“If the first vaccine comes out and it turns out there’s a serious adverse reaction and we didn’t pick it up until there’s been millions of doses, that’s going to reduce trust, not just in any subsequent Covid-19 vaccine but also vaccines in general,” Kulldorff said.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1894

Dollar Index 92.643

Japan Yen 105.55

Swiss Franc 0.9055

Pound 1.3140

Aussie 0.7221

India Rupee 74.8275

South Korea Won 1185.58

Brazil Real 5.5096

Egypt Pound 15.944

South Africa Rand 17.499

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South Africa to Loosen Coronavirus Lockdown Starting Monday @bpolitics

South Africa will ease lockdown rules at midnight on Monday, lifting most remaining restrictions on economic activity as it moves to so-called coronavirus alert level 2. 

These are some of the key provisions outlined in the Government Gazette:

Permitted Activities

Restaurants, bars, guest houses, lodges and gymnasiums can reopen on condition they observe strict health protocols.

Inter-provincial travel for leisure purposes is allowed.

Alcohol sales for off-site consumption are allowed between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m., Mondays to Thursdays.

Bars, restaurants and other licensed outlets can sell alcohol for on-site consumption until 10 p.m. throughout the week.

Sales of tobacco products and e-cigarettes can resume.

Beaches will be reopened.

Social visits are allowed.

Remaining Restrictions

A 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. curfew is still in place.

Most international travel remains banned.

Cruise ships and night clubs aren’t allowed to operate.

A maximum of 50 people can attend funerals, concerts, weddings and other events.

Bars and gyms can admit a maximum of 50 clients at a time.

Accommodation establishments and casinos can operate at half their normal capacity.

Spectators aren’t allowed at sporting matches and no international events are permitted.

Visits to old-age homes, prisons, police holding cells and health facilities aren’t permitted.

Buses and taxis may only operate at 70% of their normal capacity for long-distance trips.

Wearing face masks is mandatory in public places.

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Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rose to 837.53% in July, up from 737.26% in June, data out of @zimstat @newswireZW

Today shows. Month-on-month inflation in July was 16.65%, 12.79 percentage points slower than the June rate of 29.44%

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Just like that SADC Summit concludes and nothing on Zimbabwe, the theme was on peace and security @KhayaJames

Just like that SADC Summit concludes and nothing on Zimbabwe, the theme was on peace and security. Not even an acknowledgment that something abnormal happened in Harare, regional institutions certainly do need reforms and I get it, there's sovereignty etc this is shocking!!!!

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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August 2020

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