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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 21st of August 2020

27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance


Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00 Gold $2,200+ Silver $50.00+ EM a Sell

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COVID latches onto weaknesses and vulnerabilities @yaneerbaryam

COVID latches onto weaknesses and vulnerabilities: denialism, arrogance, exceptionalism, wishful thinking, incompetence, indecisiveness, assumptions, inflexibility, demonization, self-deception, selfishness, gullibility, rigidity, nonadaptiveness, antagonism, social fragmentation

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NorthKorea: Kim Jong-un gives sister Yo-jong 'more responsibilities' Ms Kim is now "steering overall state affairs"
Law & Politics

Kim still maintains "absolute authority", but handed various policy areas to others to reduce his stress levels

Ms Kim is now "steering overall state affairs"

But it is yet another indication that Kim Yo-jong has gone from hiding behind pillars at public events and carrying ashtrays for her brother to being at the forefront of North Korea's foreign policy.

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30-APR-2018 :: "A new history starts now. An age of peace, from the starting point of history."
Law & Politics

The Events that took place on Friday at the truce village of Panmunjom and during the Inter-Korean Summit were breathtaking for the Hollywood Optics. The Opening Shot of Kim Jong Un surrounded by a Phalanx of North Korean Officials [later replayed as Chairman Kim sat in his Presidential Vehicle surrounded by his Ninja bodyguards] was almost as good as the opening Sequence in PT Anderson's Boogie Nights [Steadicam operator Andy Shuttleworth]. This was Cinema of the highest level which is no surprise when You consider that Kim Jong-Il the Father was obsessed with Cinema and amassed arguably the world’s largest personal film collection: over 20,000 bootlegged 35mm screening copies. Kim Jong-Il also had a penchant for Hennessy Paradis cognac and for two years in the mid-1990s, he was the world's largest buyer of Hennessy Paradis cognac, importing up to $800,000 of the stuff a year.  Kim Jong-Il began his career as the head of the state’s propaganda and agitation department and its clear that Kim Jong-Un's sister Kim Yo Jong who holds the same role and evidently handles all the optics, is a chip off the old Block. Friday was tip-top Geopolitical Optics. Mike Pompeo, the newly minted US Secretary of State [His predecessor was fired via Twitter] had visited Pyongyang the previous week and pronounced; that the young North Korean leader was "a smart guy who's doing his homework"

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29-11-2010 FAR away in distant lands lies the Hermit Kingdom They all have had tiny little hands like the Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker.
Law & Politics

They all have had tiny little hands like the Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker. And this country has nuclear weapons and on its border with its neighbour South Korea sit 25,000 American soldiers.

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Global cases loiter above ¼m/day; R~1.0. A widening band in the log-log portends a turning point, as the trend nudges up. @video4me

>10%: Belize¹⁶⁵

>5%: Lebanon⁸⁴ Gambia¹²⁹ Bahamas¹⁴⁰ Aruba¹⁴⁸ Guyana¹⁶⁰ Trinidad and Tobago¹⁶³ Turks and Caicos¹⁷⁸

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences. #COVID19

―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away

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"SARS-CoV-2 was passaged two times on VeroE6 and FeCoV was passaged five times on FeA cells [...] No evolution in the consensus sequence was identified"

"SARS-CoV-2 was passaged two times on VeroE6 and FeCoV was passaged five times on FeA cells [...] No evolution in the consensus sequence was identified, suggesting previous adaptation to cell culture for both strains."

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I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory #COVID19

It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site

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SARS-Cov-2 Natural or Artificial? That is the Question

It is a new virus that has been classified in the Family: Coronaviridae, Subfamily: Orthocoronaviridae, Genus: Beta Coronavirus, Subgenus: Sarbecovirus.Protein S on the surface of coronaviruses is responsible for its binding to the cellular receptor and the fusion process with its membrane, making it a determining factor in tropism and transmission capacity in a new host. The caves where the viruses with the most similarity to SARS-VOC-2 were found were collected in the Yunnan caves almost 1500 km from Wuhan. In no natural way could these bats have reached the place where the pandemic originated [31].Like many other viruses with the RNA genome, the mutation rate of coronaviruses is 10-nucleotide substitutions (x position and year), occurring basically in the first replicative cycles. It is therefore surprising that the study of the genome of 104 SARS-Cov-2 viruses, isolated from Wuhan patients between December 2019 and February 2020, showed a homology of 99.9% in their sequences. This data suggests that this new coronavirus originated from a single source in a very short period and was detected very early in the first days of its human spread SARS-CoV-2 binds with a high affinity for human ACE2, which would imply that a new optimal joining solution.” They also comment that “the second notable feature of SARS-CoV-2 is a predictive polybasic cleavage site (RRAR) at the leading protein at the junction of S1 and S2, the two subunits of the S protein.It is important to note that although very similar, the BatCoV-RaTG1 differs from the SARS-CoV-2 by at least 1,100 bases [40]. This volume is a “genetic abyss” to be explained by a simple viral mutation. Remarkably, this approach surprisingly revealed that the binding energy between SARS-CoV-2 protein S and human ACE2 was higher than for all tested species, including the bat, the postulated source of the virus.In contrast, SARS-CoV-2 expresses in its protein S, 12 extra letters (ccu cgg cgg gca) that constitute a cut-off point for a third scissors: furin. This makes a great evolutionary difference, since furin is present in almost all human cells. Indeed, the numerous pathways to the cell for SARS-CoV-2 have made it known to some researchers as the supervirus

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1840

Dollar Index 92.677

Japan Yen 105.49

Swiss Franc 0.9092

Pound 1.3231

Aussie 0.7185

India Rupee 74.8885

South Korea Won 1186.96

Brazil Real 5.5556

Egypt Pound 15.933

South Africa Rand 17.2844

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Lockdowns, flight cancellations, and border closures are interfering with vacation plans. @IMFNews
Tourism, Travel & Transport

Lockdowns, flight cancellations, and border closures are interfering with vacation plans. Costa Rica, Greece, Morocco, Portugal, and Thailand could be among the hardest hit with losses in tourism proceeds exceeding 3% of GDP

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Tesla's soaring stock cracks $2,000 ahead of share split
World Of Finance

The stock has jumped 45% just since Aug. 11, when Tesla announced a five-for-one stock split, with shareholders of record on Aug. 21 receiving four additional shares for each share they own, distributed after the close of trading on Aug. 28.

Thursday’s surge put Tesla’s stock market value at $372 billion, greater than all but seven of the S&P 500’s components.

Tesla’s stock is among the highest priced, per share, on Wall Street, and the Palo Alto, California-based company has said it was looking to make its shares more accessible to employees and investors.

However, with Robinhood and other brokerages increasingly letting customers by fractions of individual shares, the benefit of stock splits has become less obvious, making Tesla’s rally following the announcement of its stock split surprising to some professional investors.

Tesla’s stock is currently priced at an exceedingly high 148 times expected earnings, according to Refinitiv, and that valuation will not be affected by the upcoming stock split.

Tesla will start rolling out “made-in-China” Model Y vehicles at its factory in Shanghai starting in 2021, the Global Times tweeted on Thursday, citing an unnamed executive.

Investors expect important announcements when Tesla holds its long-awaited Battery Day on Sept. 22, the same day as its annual shareholder meeting.

The company is expected to present battery innovations, with analysts at Morgan Stanley predicting a company announcement on supplying “superior” battery packs to the auto industry.

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10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator

What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

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New Cabinet Paves Way for Successor to World’s Longest-Serving President @bpolitics
Law & Politics


The reappointment of key allies of Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue to the government of Equatorial Guinea signals the heir apparent to the world’s longest-serving president is consolidating power before a succession.

President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, 78, signed a decree for the return of many of his top ministers after forcing them to quit last week over a deepening economic crisis. 

The cabinet reshuffle, announced on Wednesday, shows the growing clout of the vice president, who’s known as Teodorin.
Obiang Lima is known among oil executives as “The Godfather” for his tough “drill or drop” position. 

He’s had to soften his tone to entice oil majors including Exxon Mobil Corp., Marathon Oil Corp., Kosmos Energy Ltd., and Trident Energy to keep investing after a sharp drop in crude prices as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

Even before the disease outbreak, the country was engulfed in a crisis that shrank its economy by half since the last oil-price downturn in 2014. 

Once as rich in per-capita terms as its former colonial master Spain, Equatorial Guinea has some of the world’s worst development indicators, with nearly a quarter of children dying before reaching the age of five.

Critics blame Obiang and his family for plundering much of the country’s oil wealth to remain in power. His administration is also known for torturing and killing dissidents, earning it a human-rights record comparable to that of Syria and North Korea in the latest rankings by U.S.-based thinktank Freedom House.

Teodorin, who is in charge of national security, was convicted in absentia by a French court in 2017 for embezzling more than $100 million of Equatoguinean public money to buy a fleet of supercars and a mansion near the Champs-Élysées.

He spent more than $300 million from 2004 through 2011 on luxuries including Michael Jackson memorabilia, U.S. Department of Justice lawyers said in a separate money laundering case settled in 2014. 

That sum amounted to slightly less than 10% of Equatorial Guinea’s annual oil revenues at the time.


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“So I think that is really some sign of hope that we are beginning to bend the curve slowly. We take this news with cautious optimism,” @AfricaCDC @JNkengasong said @ReutersAfrica

“It’s very, very early, we’re dealing with a very delicate virus that spreads very quickly but it’s important to recognise those slight tendencies that are positive.”

Last week Africa reported a total of 73,000 new cases compared to 55,000 cases the previous week, with the reduction mostly driven by South Africa, World Health Organisation (WHO)Regional Director, Matshidiso Moeti, told an online press conference on Thursday.

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10 countries account for 88% (849,503) of all reported #COVID19 cases in the African Region @WHOAFRO

10 countries account for 88% (849,503) of all reported #COVID19 cases in the African Region: South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Algeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar & Senegal. 

South Africa accounts for 62% of all reported case.

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State case against @DougColtart & several other Zimbabwean patriots - on charges that reading Paulo Freire's "Pedagogy of the Oppressed" amounts to fomenting violent civil disobedience - is in disarray @DavidColtart
Law & Politics

The State case against  @DougColtart & several other Zimbabwean patriots - on charges in essence that reading Paulo Freire's "Pedagogy of the Oppressed" amounts to fomenting violent civil disobedience - is in disarray today with State witnesses unable to justify the offence.

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Standard Bank @StandardBankZA Sees Trading Revenue Falling After First-Half Jump @markets
World Of Finance

Standard Bank Group Ltd., Africa’s largest bank, expects trading revenue to fall in the second half of the year as a jump in credit losses cuts profit.

Adjusted first-half earnings dropped 44% as the lender increased provisions for doubtful debts because of the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and a deteriorating South African economy, Johannesburg-based Standard Bank said in a statement Thursday. Impairment charges were 2.7 times higher than a year earlier.

While strong foreign-exchange flows in South Africa and the West African region helped boosted trading revenue 40% in the six months through June, the level of income from that source will be lower in the second half, it said. 

An increase in customer activity in July should support growth in fees and commission, although ongoing uncertainty may “constrain balance sheet growth.”

Standard Bank is the first of South Africa’s lenders to report earnings after a lockdown introduced in March to slow the spread of Covid-19 curbed economic output. 

The central bank has cut interest rates to a record low to support the economy, which is expected to contract the most in nine decades this year.

Along with other lenders, Standard Bank has extended relief in the form of payment holidays and restructured debt, and granted government-guaranteed loans in an effort to shore up the economy, which was in recession even before the lockdown hit.

The uncertain outlook means Standard Bank is “unable to provide revised medium-term targets at this time,” it said.

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IN THE LAND OF KUSH @SmithsonianMag

Meroe’s pyramids, lined neatly in rows, rise as high as 100 feet toward the sky. “It’s like opening a fairytale book,” a friend once said to me.“Western archaeologists, including Reisner, were trying to find Egypt in Sudan, not Sudan in Sudan,” Bonnet told me.

Many Sudanese today are quick to point out that the number of standing ancient pyramids in the country—more than 200—exceeds the number of those in Egypt.

Across from the pyramids is the royal city, with surrounding grounds that are still covered in slag, evidence of the city’s large iron-smelting industry and a source of its economic power. Queens called by the title Kandake, known in Latin as “Candace,” played a vital role in Meroitic political life. The most famous of them was Amanirenas, a warrior-queen who ruled Kush from roughly 40 B.C. to 10 B.C.Many scholars believe that Amanitore’s successor, Amantitere, is the Kushite queen referred to as “Candace, queen of the Ethiopians” in the New Testament, whose treasurer converted to Christianity and traveled to Jerusalem to worship.

By the fourth century A.D., the power of Kush began to wane. Historians give different explanations for this, including climate change-driven drought and famine and the rise of a rival civilization in the east, Aksum, in modern-day Ethiopia.
“At its height, the Kingdom of Kush was a dominant regional power,” says Zeinab Badawi, a distinguished British-Sudanese journalist whose documentary series “The History of Africa” aired on the BBC earlier this year. Kush’s surviving archaeological remains “reveal a fascinating and uncelebrated ancient people the world has forgotten.”

While Egypt has long been explained in light of its connections to the Near East and the Mediterranean, Kush makes clear the role that black Africans played in an interconnected ancient world. Kush was “at the root of black African civilizations, and for a long time scholars and the general public berated its achievements,” Geoff Emberling told me. Edmund Barry Gaither, an American educator and director of Boston’s Museum of the National Center of Afro-American Artists, says that “Nubia gave black people their own place at the table, even if it did not banish racist detractors.” The French archaeologist Claude Rilly put it to me this way: “Just as Europeans look at ancient Greece symbolically as their father or mother, Africans can look at Kush as their great ancestor.”

Today, many do. In Sudan, where 30 years of authoritarian rule ended in 2019 after months of popular protests, a new generation is looking to their history to find national pride. Among the most popular chants by protesters were those invoking Kushite rulers of millennia past: “My grandfather is Tirhaka! My grandmother is a Kandake!”

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The 14th-century B.C. Temple of Soleb was built by Egyptian pharaoh Amenhotep III during a period when Egypt’s reign encompassed ancient Nubia. @SmithsonianMag

A strong resemblance to Luxor Temple has led some scholars to suggest that both complexes were built by the same architect. (Matt Stirn)

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Inside the tomb of King Tantamani, circa 650 B.C, in El-Kurru, the site of royal burials during Egypt’s 25th Dynasty, when Kush conquered Egypt @SmithsonianMag

Inside the tomb of King Tantamani, circa 650 B.C, in El-Kurru, the site of royal burials during Egypt’s 25th Dynasty, when Kush conquered Egypt and initiated the reign of the “Black Pharaohs.”  (Matt Stirn)

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The Nubian Rest House, near Jebel Barkal. @SmithsonianMag

For years, Kushite sites throughout Sudan remained little visited, but the overthrow of authoritarian President Omar al-Bashir energized a nascent tourism industry. (Matt Stirn)

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Sufi graves from the 17th century near the medieval city of Old Dongola. @SmithsonianMag

The style of the burials, adorned with white pebbles and marked by black stones, can be traced to the pre-Islamic city of Kerma, from the third millennium B.C., indicating the continuity of Nubian ritual traditions. (Matt Stirn)

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BRITAM reports HY 2020 earnings
World Of Finance

Par Value:                  

Closing Price:           6.86

Total Shares Issued:          2523486816.00

Market Capitalization:        17,311,119,558

EPS:             1.41

PE:                 4.865


BRITAM reports HY 2020 Earnings [The Earnings Release is unreadable]

HY Gross Written Premium 14.055644b versus 12.928780b

HY Net Earned Revenue 11.581990b versus 11.124653b

HY Investment Income 3.636796b versus 2.724543b

HY Total Income 12.943291b versus 16.942286b 

HY Profit [Loss] before Tax [2.307762b] versus 2.426236b

HY Profit [Loss] after Tax [1.534506b] versus 1.673077b

HY EPS [0.66] versus [0.60] 

Commentary via Dyer and Blair 

Management attributed top line growth to continued growth of the international general insurance business which recorded an increase in gross earned premium of 34.0%, contributing 23.0% of the group’s gross earned premium and a profit of KES 575.0 MN.

Investment income rose 33.5% y-o-y to KES 3.6 BN whereas net unrealized gains on assets held at FVPL declined 228.4% y-o-y to a loss of KES 3.2 BN. 

The group’s net assets declined 14.4% y-o-y to KES 25.1 BN on the back of a 2.6% y-o-y rise in total assets to KES 128.5 BN and a 7.8% y-o-y rise in total liabilities to KES 103.4 BN.

We do not anticipate a significant recovery until the stock market recovers from the COVID-19 related sell off. 

On a trailing basis, Britam is trading at a P/E of 61.7x and a P/B of 0.7x against sector median price multiples of 3.7x and 0.6x respectively. 


There is a Big Property exposure here.

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Sanlam Kenya Plc reports HY 2020 Earnings
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           13.50

Total Shares Issued:          144000000.00

Market Capitalization:        1,944,000,000

EPS:             0.79

PE:                 17.089


Sanlam reports HY Earnings through 30th June 2020

HY Gross Written Premium 4.276831b versus 3.654964b

HY Net Earned Premium 3.014371b versus 2.757911b

HY Investment and Other Income 1.244604b versus 1.9223259b

HY Total Income 4.258975b versus 4.681170b

HY Net Claims 2.475887b versus 1.991741b

HY Total Expenses 4.395014b versus 3.744097b

HY Profit [Loss] before Tax [136.039m] versus 937.079m

HY Profit [Loss] after Tax [99.14m] versus 639.675m

HY EPS [0.83] versus 4.44 


I expect further slippage into the FY Earnings Release. 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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August 2020

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