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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 21st of September 2020

US 10-Year Treasury Yield...@charliebilello
World Of Finance

September 1980: 11.6%

September 1985: 10.4%

September 1990: 8.9%

September 1995: 6.2%

September 2000: 5.9%

September 2005: 4.3%

September 2010: 2.8%

September 2015: 2.2%

September 2020: 0.7%


The Direction of Travel is obvious. 

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#COVID19 Worldwide, by geographic region Europe (> EU) and Asia seeing growths in cases and deaths. The increase in cases in Europe is exponential Asia's numbers are dominated by India @Marco_Piani

#COVID19 Worldwide, by geographic region Europe (> EU) and Asia seeing growths in cases and deaths. The increase in cases in Europe is exponential and is not driven only by more tests. Asia's numbers are dominated by India

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Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance

“Everybody, everybody everywhere, has his own movie going, his own scenario, and everybody is acting his movie out like mad, only most people don’t know that is what they’re trapped by, their little script.” ― Tom Wolfe, The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1865

Dollar Index 92.786

Japan Yen 104.32

Swiss Franc 0.9099

Pound 1.2951

Aussie 0.7320

India Rupee 73.369

South Korea Won 1158.71

Brazil Real 5.3979

Egypt Pound 15.7232

South Africa Rand 16.2800

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Large UK property funds are keeping trading suspensions in place because of fears that low cash buffers and regulatory uncertainty could trigger an investor run. @FT.
RealEstate, Housing & Construction

All of the UK’s major commercial property funds suspended trading in March, trapping close to £22bn of investor money, after the coronavirus-induced halt in economic activity made it difficult to value real estate.

Yet while three investment managers — St James’s Place, Columbia Threadneedle and most recently L&G — have announced they will reopen their property funds, most others remain suspended as groups weigh whether they will be able to cope with redemption requests on reopening.

A chief concern is that UK regulatory proposals, which are designed to prevent fund liquidity mismatches by introducing longer redemption notice periods, could have the opposite effect by encouraging investors to withdraw en masse before the rules come into force.

This risk, which could ultimately lead funds to suspend again, is compounded by the low cash balances of some property funds. Aegon Asset Management’s fund holds cash equivalent to 7.3 per cent of its portfolio, while M&G’s holds 8.2 per cent. This compares to 24.4 per cent and 18.5 per cent held by L&G and Columbia Threadneedle’s funds respectively.

“Property managers will be fearful that just when they are ready to reopen they lurch straight into another crisis brought about by the potential rule change,” said Ryan Hughes, head of active portfolios at AJ Bell. He warned an investor exodus could lead to a “liquidity death spiral” as managers try to sell assets in an uncertain market.

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“How I got here — now that is a surprise,” he said with a wry smile, in a jailhouse interview this past week, with two Rwandan government officials in the room. “I was actually not coming here.” @nytimes

Foremost among those critics is Mr. Rusesabagina, who leveraged his celebrity as the world’s most famous Rwandan to launch scathing attacks on Mr. Kagame, gradually transforming from activist to opponent to, as the government now alleges, a supporter of armed struggle.

Mr. Rusesabagina was a leader of a coalition of opposition groups, all in exile, that includes an armed wing. In an address to those groups in 2018, recorded in a video now widely circulated by the government, Mr. Rusesabagina says that politics has failed in Rwanda. “The time for us has come to use any means possible to bring about change,” he said. “It is time to attempt our last resort.”

From prison, he said his group’s role was not fighting, but “diplomacy” to represent the millions of Rwandan refugees and exiles.

“We are not a terrorist organization,” he said.

Experts say his situation is emblematic of Rwanda under Mr. Kagame: As the ruling party totally dominates the political space, some exiled opponents have turned to more extreme measures.

“Coming on the heels of something as horrific as 1994, foreigners often want to paint the situation in black and white, good and bad, with heroes and demons,” said Anna Cave, a former National Security Council director for African Affairs under President Barack Obama. “But it’s more nuanced today. There are a lot of shades of gray.”

In an interview, Rwanda’s spy chief gleefully described how Mr. Rusesabagina had fallen for an elaborate ruse, involving a private jet from Dubai, that he called “flawless.” Human Rights Watch called it illegal, a “forced disappearance.”

Mr. Rusesabagina, speaking in jail, said he believed he had been flying to Burundi. His family insists that he cannot speak freely.

“With guns around him, he’s saying that in the belly of the beast,” said his son, Trésor Rusesabagina, 28, speaking from the United States. “And the beast can bite at any time.”

“An island of fear in a sea of fire,” Mr. Rusesabagina once called it.

November 2005, the pro-government New Times published a series of articles attacking the hotelier. “A man who sold the soul of the Rwandan Genocide to amass medals” read one article.

Months later, Mr. Kagame delivered his own broadside. Rwanda had no need for “manufactured” heroes “made in Europe or America,” he said.

Mr. Rusesabagina published a memoir, “An Ordinary Man,” that contained sharp criticisms of Mr. Kagame’s Rwanda — 

“A nation governed by and for the benefit of a small group of elite Tutsis,” he wrote. The few Hutus in power were “known locally as Hutus de service, or ‘Hutus for hire.’”

Over six months, the New Times published 21 articles with headlines like “Rusesabagina’s Megalomania Has No Limit.” Survivors from the Mille Collines came forward to accuse Mr. Rusesabagina of exaggerating his role, and even profiting from the genocide. A government official published a book that purported to tell Hotel Rwanda’s “real story.”

Mr. Rusesabagina had some influential backers. In early 2006 Alison Des Forges, a noted scholar on the genocide, conducted a review of “An Ordinary Man” for his publisher, Penguin.

Mr. Rusesabagina’s account was “true to what I have witnessed and experienced in this complicated society,” Ms. Des Forges wrote in a confidential letter seen by The Times.

The Rwandan government intensified its campaign. In 2007, at a forum in Chicago, Rwanda’s ambassador to the United States accused Mr. Rusesabagina of financing rebel groups in eastern Congo.

In Brussels, Mr. Rusesabagina began to feel unsafe. Intruders broke into his home twice, his children said, rifling drawers and stealing documents. When a car drove him off the road, he took it as an assassination attempt, they said.

In 2009, Mr. Rusesabagina and his wife moved to a gated community in San Antonio, Texas, near the home of an ally — Bob Krueger, a former United States Senator and ambassador to Burundi, whom he had befriended.

“He delivered himself here,” said Rwanda’s spy chief, Brig. Gen. Joseph Nzabamwita, with a smile. “Quite a wonderful operation.”

If that operation was straight out of the Kagame playbook — dissidents say a private jet flew another opposition leader from the Comoro Islands to Rwanda last year — the nature of the bait used to entrap Rwanda’s latest victim was unclear.

General Nzabamwita dismissed any suggestion of illegality because, he said, the United States and Belgium had been cooperating with his investigation all along. In fact, he added, the head of Belgian intelligence and the C.I.A. station chief in Kigali had personally congratulated him on the arrest.

“They were only surprised how we could conduct such an operation, and very successfully,” he said.

American and Belgian officials denied the general’s assertion. In an email, a spokesman for Belgium’s SGRS intelligence service said its head, Claude Van de Voorde, had “NEVER congratulated the Rwandan authorities” on the arrest.

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Chad Asks to Suspend Payments on Glencore Oil-Backed Loan @markets .

Chad has asked Glencore Plc to suspend payments on its oil-for-cash loan this year, a move that could prove a precedent for private creditors worried about being dragged into a global debt-relief push for poor countries.

After securing a $61 million debt waiver in June, sponsored by the Group of 20, the central African nation sent a letter to the world’s biggest commodity trader and other private lenders, asking them to allow debt freezes, according to two people familiar with the matter. This would suspend over $100 million in payments in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The G-20 launched the Debt Service Suspension Initiative in April, a program aimed at helping countries hit hard by the pandemic by waiving billions of dollars in repayments until the end of the year. Bondholders and banks have so far resisted G-20 calls to join creditor governments in the freeze, citing legal obligations.

The vast majority of the 73 eligible borrowers didn’t contact private creditors asking for a freeze on repayments for fear it could halt future access to financing. Chad, a landlocked country in the southern fringes of the Sahara, and the tiny Caribbean island of Grenada both applied for the relief.

The two nations have asked for comparable terms from private lenders, according to a July 14 document seen by Bloomberg which was prepared by the World Bank and the IMF. Grenada asked bondholders for a payment freeze in May but backtracked shortly afterward.

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#Ghana looks like it will be another sub-Saharan growth story in 2020 - Frontier economies that went with brief (3 weeks in Ghana) or light lockdowns - look like they will be among the best performers in the world in 2020 @RencapMan

#Ghana looks like it will be another sub-Saharan growth story in 2020 - along with Kenya.  Frontier economies that went with brief (3 weeks in Ghana) or light lockdowns - look like they will be among the best performers in the world in 2020 - and at low health cost

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

YTD basis the shilling has depreciated by 7.0% against the dollar

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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September 2020

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