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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 15th of October 2020

Tedesco’s assessment is blunt. “This is the most dangerous volcano in the world!”

Tedesco’s assessment is blunt. “This is the most dangerous volcano in the world!”

The 2002 eruption began after an earthquake opened up fissures in the southern flank of the volcano. The 200-meter-wide lava lake, the largest in the world, drained in a matter of hours, releasing low-silica, runny lava that flowed as fast as 60 kilometers per hour. 

The lava piled up in layers up to 2 meters deep in Goma and created a new delta 800 meters wide in nearby Lake Kivu.

As soon as the fissures healed, however, fresh lava began to bubble up and refill the crater lake. Activity accelerated in 2016 when a second vent began to fountain within the crater. 

In February, on their most recent inspection, Tedesco and his colleagues—flown in by U.N. peacekeepers to avoid the rebels active in the area—found the lake rising faster than ever. 

The second vent was gushing an estimated 4 cubic meters of lava per second, enough to fill an Olympic swimming pool every 10 minutes. 

“As long as the volume is increasing, it increases the chances of a volcanic eruption onto Goma,” says GVO Director General Katcho Karume, who also took part in the campaign.

Pierre-Yves Burgi, a geophysical modeler at the University of Geneva, says the lava lake level is effectively a pressure gauge for the volcano’s internal plumbing, like mercury in a barometer. 

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#COVID19 UK Covid data R 1.2-1.5 @sunchartist

Deaths within 28 days of admission +72%

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‘’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.

There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released

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However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”

According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.175405

Dollar Index 93.386

Japan Yen 105.259

Swiss Franc 0.9131

Pound 1.302100

Aussie 0.713200

India Rupee 73.2325

South Korea Won 1142.870

Brazil Real 5.5930

Egypt Pound 15.688900

South Africa Rand 16.56345

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Euro versus the Dollar Chart @FXPIPTITAN 1.1754
World Currencies

I want to post one last chart for the wk. Don't get confused even though the chart might look like a triangle mess. lol The triangles show options to look for if we continue down or if we are actually going to see a trend continuation move to the upside.

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22 African countries are richer than India @RencapMan

Zambia (cheap FX) barely above Ethiopia (overvalued FX).  

Rwanda closing gap with Zim

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Eurobond Holders Dump Zambian Debt With Default on Horizon @markets

Zambia’s Eurobonds slumped for a second day as the country appeared to be heading for a default amid a showdown with bondholders over its request for an interest payment holiday.

The southern African nation has asked holders of its $3 billion of Eurobonds to accept a six-month standstill on about $120 million of coupon payments while it works on a debt-restructuring strategy. 

The first, of $42.5 million, is due on Wednesday, though there is a 30-day grace period before the country is technically in default.

Eurobond holders are due to meet on Oct. 20 to vote on the proposal, and a group of holders already said they couldn’t vote in favor without further assurances and transparency from Zambia. Rafael Molina, an adviser to the group, declined to comment on Wednesday.

“We have yet to receive enough details from Zambian officials to vote on the consent,” said Kevin Daly, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments, which owns Zambian bonds. 

“I think having a dialog would be more constructive than issuing press releases.”

Zambia has over the past decade taken on nearly $12 billion of debt, even as growth slowed and foreign-exchange reserves dwindled. The pandemic accelerated the crisis. 

The country is seen as a test case for how indebted nations will deal with competing interests from commercial and non-commercial lenders. As much as one-third of the country’s external debt is owed to Chinese lenders.

“It seems unlikely that the government will receive its deferral request, putting additional pressure on the government to ensure that it makes all the necessary payments if it is to avoid a default in future,” Neville Mandimika and Daniel Kavishe, Johannesburg-based analysts at Rand Merchant Bank, said in a client note. 

“To ensure smooth debt management, the government must involve China and its agencies in its deliberations.”

The only foreign-currency debt that Zambia will continue to pay on time is to multilateral agencies and debt for a few priority projects that have an immediate economic and social impact, Fredson Yamba, the secretary to the Treasury, said in an emailed statement Tuesday. 

The country is already $485 million in arrears on foreign debt, including $183 million to bilateral lenders and $256 million on commercial loans, according to the finance ministry.

“Should Zambia fail to reach an agreement with its commercial creditors, including holders of its Eurobonds, on the terms of the appropriate standstills, the Republic with its limited fiscal space will be unable to make payments,” Yamba said.

Zambia’s 2024 Eurobonds plunged 4.6% to 45.5 cents on the dollar by 9:33 a.m. in London on Wednesday after falling 1.5% on Tuesday.

If bondholders approve the standstill, Zambia “will recognize interest accruing on deferred coupons in the restructuring process, at a rate to be determined in good faith with noteholders,” Yamba said.

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Sudan annual inflation up to 212%, says the state statistics office. The mood in Khartoum is increasingly gloomy: @Reuters

KHARTOUM (Reuters) - Sudan’s annual inflation accelerated to 212.29% in September from 166.83% in August
, driven by food and transport prices, the state statistics office said on Tuesday.

Inflation in the country has been rising over the past few years, driven by food, beverages, fuel and a black market for U.S. dollars, and was a factor in driving out autocrat Omar al-Bashir last year.

Since his ousting, the economy has worsened as a weak transitional government has struggled to start economic reforms and proved unable to halt a fall in the Sudanese pound on the black market.

Last month, Sudan declared last month an economic state of emergency after the currency fell sharply, setting up special courts to prosecute what officials called a “systematic operation” to vandalise the economy.

But political analysts are sceptical about the impact of the government’s action as Bashir’s regime was unsuccessful in trying to clamp down on the black market.

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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward
World Of Finance

Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’

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Rwanda approves cannabis production @The_EastAfrican

Rwanda has approved the cultivation and export of cannabis even as the use of the stimulant for medical or recreational purposes remains illegal in the country.

The government is targeting to grow its export earnings from the global cannabis market valued at the $345 billion according to analysts New Frontier Data.

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KENYA: SECOND WAVE 604 new confirmed cases of #CoViD19KE, 10 new deaths, 88 new recoveries @NCoVAfrica


- Confirmed cases of #covid19: 42541

- Deaths: 797

- Recoveries: 31428

- Active cases : 10316

Today 604 people have tested positive for the virus, from a sample size of 5,832 tested in the last 24 hours.

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Kenya 50% of peak and rising Average number of new infections reported each day in Kenya rises by more than 200 over the last 3 weeks #COVID19 @ReutersGraphics

COVID-19 infections are increasing in Kenya, with 335 new infections reported on average each day. That’s 50% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on August 5.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2020

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