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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 14th of December 2020
 





.@BorisJohnson says wonderful no-deal Brexit would let us do what we want @thesundaytimes
Law & Politics




A no-deal Brexit would be wonderful for Britain, Boris Johnson said yesterday as he gave his gloomiest assessment yet of the prospects of a trade agreement with Brussels.

On a visit to the northeast, the prime minister said that while ending the transition period without a deal was not what he had “set out to achieve”, it would allow Britain to “do exactly what we want from January”



Conclusions

We have turned into a nation of lemmings knowingly following this clown off the cliffs of economic oblivion @DalrympleWill



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Ministers warn supermarkets to stockpile food amid no‑deal Brexit fears @thesundaytimes
Law & Politics



Supermarkets are this weekend stockpiling food and other goods after being told by ministers that a no-deal Brexit is on the cards.

Food producers have warned there will be shortages of vegetables for three months and emergency planners predict that no-deal would spark panic-buying on a scale that could dwarf the coronavirus crisis.

In a sign of what might be to come, lorries were backed up for three miles on the A20 outside Dover yesterday, after Calais suffered 10-mile tailbacks on Friday. Hauliers blamed the jams in Kent on “stock-building”.

Boris Johnson is set to take control of planning from Michael Gove if Britain opts for no-deal, chairing a “super XO” exit operations committee to prepare the response.

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In India, @Facebook Fears Crackdown on Hate Groups Could Backfire on Its Staff @WSJ
Law & Politics



Dozens of religious extremists burst into a Pentecostal church outside New Delhi in June, claiming it was built atop a Hindu temple. 

The group installed a Hindu idol in protest, and a pastor says he was punched in the head by attackers.

Members of a Hindu nationalist organization known as Bajrang Dal claimed responsibility in a video describing the incursion that has been viewed almost 250,000 times on Facebook. 

The social-media company’s safety team earlier this year concluded that Bajrang Dal supported violence against minorities across India and likely qualified as a “dangerous organization” that should be banned from the platform, according to people familiar with the matter.

Facebook Inc. balked at removing the group following warnings in a report from its security team that cracking down on Bajrang Dal might endanger both the company’s business prospects and its staff in India, the people said. 

Besides risking infuriating India’s ruling Hindu nationalist politicians, banning Bajrang Dal might precipitate physical attacks against Facebook personnel or facilities, the report warned.

Such conflicting concerns underscore the struggle Facebook faces in policing hate speech that exists in the vast sea of content posted to its platform around the world. 

The calculus is especially complicated in India, Facebook’s largest market by users. Facebook has staff on the ground, recently invested $5.7 billion in a new retail venture and interacts with a government whose politicians have ties to Hindu nationalist groups.

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US #COVID19 cases on track to 20M by Christmas day if 1.37% exponential growth rate (daily/total) continues. @jmlukens
Misc.


US total deaths about to cross 300k.  2,376 avg deaths/day increased 65% past 2wks and still accelerating.

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Ibn Khaldun sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Law & Politics



Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

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―They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences
Misc.



―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.

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Here are the ToRs (Terms of Reference) for the WHO investigation of Covid-19 origins, with my annotations. @gdemaneuf
Misc.





These were negotiated with China, finalised on 31st July and quietly published on the WHO website on 5th Nov. No reason given for the delay.

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“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” ― Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Law & Politics


“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”

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‘’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Law & Politics





There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released

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However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
Misc.



According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2147

Dollar Index 90.694

Japan Yen 103.97

Swiss Franc 0.88858

Pound 1.3363

Aussie 0.7557

India Rupee 73.527

South Korea Won 1093.06

Brazil Real 5.0665

Egypt Pound 15.73968

South Africa Rand 15.05175

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Commodities are on the brink of a 12-year breakout. @TaviCosta
Commodities



To be loud and clear:

This would be very inflationary.

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CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ: Confirmed: 2 362 817 (+ 18326)Actives: 298 442 (+ 6963) @NCoVAfrica
Africa



Confirmed: 2 362 817 (+ 18326)

Actives: 298 442 (+ 6963)

Deaths: 55 990 (+ 340)

Recoveries: 2 006 775 (+ 11023)

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Weekly Update: #COVID19 in #SouthAfrica = All measures now rising steeply @rid1tweets
Africa



Numbers above bars indicate % change week on week:

• New cases = +61%

• New tests = +25%

• Test positivity = +29%

• New hospitalisations = +22%

• New deaths = +85%

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Turning to Africa The Spinning Top
Africa



Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator


Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

The Event is no longer over the Horizon.

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IMF say Ghana is 'high risk of debt distress'. Their main concern is the ratio of external debt payments to revenue. @emsovdebt
Africa





There's otherwise been good GDP growth, diverse export earnings (cocoa, gold, oil). But gov't revenue lags peers, & more needed to de-risk debt 2/2

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I’m no seer but my inkling from the #COVID19KE trend curve thus far is that we shall likely see the numbers continue to slide then a new surge to takeoff in January after the movements & interactions rise @DrAhmedKalebi
Africa



I’m no seer but my inkling from the #COVID19KE trend curve thus far is that we shall likely see the numbers continue to slide down but not to the previous trough levels then a new surge to takeoff in January after the movements & interactions rise



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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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