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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 29th of June 2021

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The joke ees not ze doggy coin jyou are buying a product, yes, a packaged revolushion. That ees the joke. @nic__carter
World Of Finance

The joke ees not ze doggy coin. The joke is that ze dog exshposes the banality and insincerity of yoor struggle. Jyou claim to engage een revolushion but jyou are just engaging in conshumerism, jyou are buying a product, yes, a packaged revolushion. That ees the joke.

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The macro winds might be changing... Macro is ruled by two assets - the US dollar and US treasuries. @RaoulGMI
World Of Finance

If they move together they are usually telling us something important. It is time to have them both on your radar screen

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09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance

On 8th March when the Bears had gotten hold of the US 10 Year, I wrote that I expected the 10 Year to target 1.45% well we got real close on Friday before the market reversed 

Ten- year yields initially plunged to a more than two-month low of 1.46%, then reversed to end the day at 1.58%. However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! 

I beg to differ

Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner. 

They have fired a lot of bullets and even if there was a meaningful bounce they cannot raise rates.

Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2 

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What does it all mean IF it happens? @RaoulGMI
World Of Finance

Bonds up, rotation out of value into growth (tech up) 

Maybe a cheeky VAR shock (short, sharp equity sell-off)

BTC up

gold up

correction in commodities

EM underperforming.

Let's see over the next month..

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Galton Fenzi and Capt. Gethin made the first car journey from Mombasa to Nairobi in 1926. They kind of "created" Mombasa road for use by cars. @historykenya101

Automobile Association (AA) was founded by Fenzi in 1919 then known as Royal East Africa Automobile Association. He died in 1937.

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On The Road The Star January 7th 2013

My Christmas holiday ritual is to jump into a car and take the family down to the Coast. 

The Nairobi-Mombasa road arrows ‘into immensities and is ‘impossible-to- believe.’ It retains a near mystical hold on my imagination and connects me to my childhood and beyond.

Dad used to once own an Alfa Romeo [of which there were only three then in the country] and my pilgrimage along that road started then, when we used to come from Mombasa. 

Now, of course, we set off from Nairobi but the road still has its hold. The landmarks still reach out to me.

This time we were swarmed by doves near Emali which was breathtaking. 

There is still the eerie and deserted very Oscar Niemeyer building which might have been a petrol station with a restaurant. 

We stopped at Makindu which is like being teleported to Amritsar and on New Years day was packed to the rafters.

We always stop at Mackinnon road where there is a shrine which houses the tomb of Seyyid Baghali, a Punjabi foreman at the time of the building of the railway who was renowned for his strength. 

And this time we took ourselves to Vipingo and Watamu. In Vipingo,I was introduced to a pristine beach which is accessed via a ladder as if you were descending from the real world into another.

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Jean Rhys wrote in her Novel ‘’Wide sargasso sea’’: Only the magic and the dream are true - all the rest’s a lie''

And, “I must remember about 
chandeliers and dancing, about swans and roses and snow.”

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The Communist party at 100: is Xi Jinping’s China on the right track? FT
Law & Politics

Last month a senior official from China’s education ministry addressed more than 100 government colleagues and scholars at a closed-door event to discuss the centenary of the establishment of the Chinese Communist party, which will be officially marked with great fanfare in Beijing on Thursday.

Wang Binglin lectured his audience on controversial subjects, such as the party’s iron grip on history ever since Mao Zedong seized power 72 years ago. 

In particular, he warned the scholars in attendance to be careful when speaking and writing about the party’s violent land redistribution campaign in the early 1950s that claimed the lives of as many as 2m people.

“Playing up [the attack on landlords] is historical nihilism,” Wang said, referring to the term used by President Xi Jinping to criticise anyone who deviates from the party’s official historical narrative

He also noted that certain information in China’s national archives was likely to be marked as classified and off-limits forever: “Making such information public is of little help for you historians and will also be bad for the party.”

“By studying or writing about this [period], you will be taking the wrong side. That’s why we ban the study and publication of such material. The same applies to Fang Fang’s Wuhan Diary,” he added

referring to the Wuhan-based novelist’s account of Covid-19’s emergence in the city last year that pillories government officials for their initial attempts to cover up the outbreak. 

“You won’t become a good researcher if you don’t follow [the] party.”

The mixture of condescension and confidence implicit in Wang’s remarks — that what is good for the party is good for China — provides a perfect encapsulation of the country under Xi.

Now 68, Xi has already been in power for nine years and, having abolished term limits on the presidency three years ago, is unlikely to formally relinquish the presidency until 2028 or possibly even 2033. 

The biggest question looming over next year’s 20th party congress is whether Xi, currently the party’s general secretary, will resurrect and assume Mao’s title of party chair.

To his admirers, Xi is the right man at the right time, ready to lead the party and China into a “new era” that will be defined by its emergence as the world’s largest economy, surpassing the US, and also establishing itself as a first-rank military and technological power.

“The party has suffered numerous setbacks,” says David Wang, a Beijing-based scholar, referring to traumas ranging from a famine in the late 1950s and the cultural revolution of 1966-76 — each of which killed tens of millions of people — to the bloody suppression of pro-democracy protests in Beijing in June 1989. 

“But it ended up conquering China and turning the country into a global powerhouse. That is inspiring.”

“I joined the party because there is no other political force that could make China better,” adds Wang, who earned his PhD in the US and joined the party after returning to China a few years ago. 

“Ordinary people in both the US and China are like mobs who need to be guided. Average Chinese aren’t ready for western-style democracy and need to be led. In the US, everyone can have an opinion and nothing gets done. China should follow a different path.”

Others fret that Xi’s empowerment of the party over the past decade — epitomised by his famous assertion that “north, south, east, west and centre, the party is leader of all” — could hasten its own destruction through a process of top-down ossification that engenders widespread apathy and cynicism among its 92m members.

“Party control permeates every aspect of life,” says Wu Qiang, a former professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing and prominent party critic

“There are no different voices inside or outside the party. As a result, there are no checks and balances . . . Small mistakes can develop into huge mistakes and endanger the party.”

The third transformational leader?

Like many of his peers, Xi is a Chinese “princeling” whose father held high party and government positions under both Mao and Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s “reform and opening” programme that transformed the country into an economic powerhouse.

Few of Xi’s critics in China dare to speak openly. But their criticism has a common refrain. They argue that Xi’s accomplishments pale in comparison to those of Mao and Deng — both hardened guerrilla fighters who, respectively, won a political revolution and launched an economic one.

Nonetheless, he regards himself as their equal, modern China’s third “transformational” leader who does not have to follow the same rules that his immediate predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, did. 

In the process, they add, he risks destroying the foundations of China’s economic success over the past 40 years.

Deng too believed in the primacy of the party. 

He ordered the People’s Liberation Army to crush the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests because he feared the party’s grip on power was under threat. 

But he also promoted and institutionalised policies designed to ensure that the party did not strangle the economy, such as greater autonomy for local and regional officials, a “collective leadership” ethos and the two-term limit on the presidency since abolished by Xi.

“Princelings see Xi Jinping as just one of them — they come from the same class,” says Willy Lam, a China politics expert and lecturer at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. 

“They have trouble swallowing the fact that this guy who they grew up with is now the second Mao Zedong, has totally negated Deng’s major achievement on orderly succession and revived Mao’s personality cult.”

‘Our autonomy has shrunk’

In a village near Wuhan, a local party secretary told the Financial Times that today’s trend towards ever greater centralisation of power had a clear starting point — the 18th party congress in October 2012, at which Xi was anointed party general secretary. He assumed the presidency in March 2013.

“Top-down decision making is to blame for political indifference,” says the village party secretary, who asked not to be identified. 

“Our job now is to carry out tasks assigned by higher-level party organisations that rarely listen to average [party] members. While we have good knowledge about what ordinary people are thinking, it is difficult for us to report the situation to our leaders, let alone affect their decision making.

“Before the 18th party congress, villagers had considerable freedom to participate in public affairs,” he adds. 

“Since President Xi took office, our village’s autonomy has shrunk greatly as the authorities see it as a trigger for social instability.”

In Beijing, a central government adviser is blunt — and unapologetic — about the changes. “Grassroots democracy,” he says, “creates more problems than it solves”.

Wu, the Tsinghua scholar, disagrees, saying that under Xi Chinese officials have become “two-faced and afraid to voice their true opinion — everyone just repeats party propaganda and the leader’s speeches”.

“Local officials used to have more initiative to innovate, to take risks for economic development,” he adds. 

“Now they follow higher level officials. Everyone is restrained, so they do nothing. The effect of all this is the same: there is no self-correction mechanism in the system.”

US President Joe Biden’s recent progress in coaxing G7 and Nato allies into a “united front” challenging Beijing has angered Chinese officials, whose confidence in the superiority of their system compared with America’s was emboldened by both Donald Trump’s tumultuous presidency and western nations’ failure to protect their populations from the Covid-19 pandemic.

“If Nato wants to branch out to the Asia-Pacific region, be our guest,” says Victor Gao, a former translator for Deng and Chinese diplomat. 

“China has been here for 5,000 years and China will be here for another 5,000 years. China will stand firm regardless of whatever Nato does.”

“Biden says America is back,” Gao adds. “But Trump could be back in four years, right?”

Paul Haenle, a former national security staffer for both George W Bush and Barack Obama and director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, agrees that “uncertainty about the future of US democracy and the potential for a return of Trumpism” will give America’s allies pause about confronting China too openly. 

But, he adds, increasingly unfavourable “international views of China are unlikely to change until Beijing recognises that its actions, in addition to its diplomacy, are the main contributors to the downturn” in its relations with the US and EU.

The party’s “confidence is turning into hubris”, warns Richard McGregor, author of The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers

“China’s great strength needs to be self-criticism,” he adds. 

“We don’t see that any more. There is an element of triumph . . . There’s no path beyond Xi Jinping. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. That’s dangerous.”

‘No longer a workers’ party’

The party has for decades billed itself as the only political organisation that serves the Chinese people “wholeheartedly”. 

To complete their revolutionary mission, the party constitution demands that its members be ready to “sacrifice everything”.

Under Xi, there has been a big push to put this ideology into action. 

Party members, led by those working for the government and state-owned enterprises, are required to wear lapel pins in the workplace so they can be constantly reminded of their duty — and be identified by others as model workers to whom they can turn for help.

A similar campaign is under way in the countryside, where households are classified — and assigned tasks — depending on whether any family members have joined the party. 

In Xinshiji, a small village near the manufacturing hub of Yiwu in eastern Zhejiang province, each home has a plate on its front door specifying whether a party member lives there.

Families with party members are supposed to serve as role models in five areas, ranging from adhering to “high ethical standards” to helping to “upgrade the local economy”. 

In contrast, the only job asked of non-party households is to recycle their rubbish properly. 

“We count on party members to build a more prosperous village,” says an official in Xinshiji.

The party, however, is struggling to recruit members intent on putting public interest above their own. 

Dozens of academic studies show Chinese adults, led by young people, pursued party membership mainly for personal gain. 

According to one survey of 1,885 college-age party members conducted by academics at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law in Wuhan, the most cited reason for joining the party was career advancement as a growing number of employers, led by government departments and state firms, now say they prefer to hire party members.

“I had no plan to join the party until all my dream jobs began to require CCP membership,” says Tina Hu, a Beijing-based office worker who is now seeking a government position. 

Hu applied to become a party member two years ago and is hoping to finish the process “as soon as possible” so she can make her career switch.

In rural areas, owners of small businesses ranging from industrial farms to factories have overtaken farmers as the preferred candidates for party membership. 

“We expect [new members] to lead the whole village to prosperity,” says the village party secretary near Wuhan. “In return we offer them benefits like better access to loans or government contracts.”

“The party is no longer a workers’ and peasants’ party,” adds McGregor. “It is a managers’ and businessmen’s party.” 

Of the 2.1m new members the party recruited in 2018, less than 5,700 of them were migrant workers even though such labourers account for more than a third of China’s working-age population.

This tension between a party apparatus that has become increasingly powerful under Xi — but also recognises that it needs capable private sector businesspeople to propel the economic growth that keeps it in power — has been evident in the party’s effort to rein in private-sector tech giants such as Jack Ma’s Alibaba and Ant Group, and Pony Ma’s Tencent.

“Nothing bad will happen to Jack Ma,” says one senior Chinese government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. 

“He has made good contributions to the economy and is still very much respected. He has done a great service to the people and the country. The lesson is just don’t be so high-profile in China.”

Wang, the Beijing scholar and party member, believes that given another “30 or 40 years” the party will finally be able to worry less about what everyone from historians to internet tycoons do and say. 

“By then,” he says, “I hope that people will have more freedom to choose what they want to believe.”

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7 OCT 19 :: China turns 70

“Longing on a large scale makes history.” wrote Don DeLillo
‘’This is the legendary DF41 ICBM. But it is not a tale. Today it is displayed at Tiananmen Square I touched one about four years ago in the production plant. No need to fear it. Just respect it and respect China that owns it’’.

They have “stood up.” Xi’s model is one of technocratic authoritarianism and a recent addition to his book shelf include The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. Xi is building an Algorithmic Society.

 the “Chinese Dream,” the catchphrase embodying the party’s aim to be- come a global power by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People Republic of China

But Xi has taken the propagation of ideology and the cult of personality to extremes not seen since the days of Chairman Mao. 

 “Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,” 

“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!” he added.

The World in the 21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.

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August 28, 2017 In fact, far from being a unipolar world, we have entered a bipolar or even a Tripolar world [US, China and Russia].
Law & Politics

one of the collateral consequences of that was to send President Putin into the ready embrace of Xi Jinping. 

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They now turn to rule over the people by means of what could be dubbed "big data totalitarianism" and "WeChat terror." @ChinaFile #COVID19
Law & Politics

You will all be no better than fields of garlic chives, giving yourselves up to being harvested by the blade of power, time and time again. @ChinaFile #COVID19 

[ “garlic chives,” Allium tuberosum, often used as a metaphor to describe an endlessly renewable resource.]

What is thriving, however, is all that ridiculous ―Red Culture and the nauseating adulation that the system heaps on itself via shameless pro-Party hacks who chirrup hosannahs at every turn @ChinaFile #COVID19

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India Shifts 50,000 Troops to China Border in Historic Move
Law & Politics

India has redirected at least 50,000 additional troops to its border with China in a historic shift toward an offensive military posture against the world’s second-biggest economy.
Although the two countries battled in the Himalayas in 1962, India’s strategic focus has primarily been Pakistan since the British left the subcontinent, with the long-time rivals fighting three wars over the disputed region of Kashmir.
Yet since the deadliest India-China fighting in decades last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has sought to ease tensions with Islamabad and concentrate primarily on countering Beijing.

Over the past few months, India has moved troops and fighter jet squadrons to three distinct areas along its border with China, according to four people familiar with the matter. 

All in all, India now has roughly 200,000 troops focused on the border, two of them said, which is an increase of more than 40% from last year.
Whereas previously India’s military presence was aimed at blocking Chinese moves, the redeployment will allow Indian commanders more options to attack and seize territory in China if necessary in a strategy known as “offensive defense,” one of the people said. 

That includes a lighter footprint involving more helicopters to airlift soldiers from valley to valley along with artillery pieces like the M777 howitzer built by BAE Systems Inc.

While it’s unclear how many troops China has on the border, India detected that the People’s Liberation Army recently moved additional forces from Tibet to the Xinjiang Military Command, which is responsible for patrolling disputed areas along the Himalayas. 

China is adding fresh runway buildings, bomb-proof bunkers to house fighter jets and new airfields along the disputed border in Tibet, two of the people said. 

Beijing also adding long-range artillery, tanks, rocket regiments and twin-engine fighters in the last few months, they said.

China’s Foreign Ministry “will not comment on unsubstantiated information,” a spokesperson said in response to questions.The fear now is that a miscalculation could lead to an even deadlier conflict. 

Several recent rounds of military-diplomatic talks with China have made minimal progress toward a return to the quiet status quo that had prevailed along the border for decades.

”Having so many soldiers on either side is risky when border management protocols have broken down,” said D. S. Hooda, a lieutenant general and former Northern Army commander in India. 

“Both sides are likely to patrol the disputed border aggressively. A small local incident could spiral out of control with unintended consequences.”

The northern region of Ladakh — where India and China clashed several times last year — has seen the largest increase in troop levels, three of the people said, with an estimated 20,000 soldiers including those once engaged in anti-terrorism operations against Pakistan now deployed in the area. 

The reorientation means India at all times will have more troops acclimatized to fight in the high-altitude Himalayans, while the number of troops solely earmarked for the western border with Pakistan will be reduced.

India has also obtained an offensive capability along the southern Tibetan plateau near the center of the border. 

In that more populated area, regular soldiers outfitted with machine guns have joined lightly armed paramilitary officers, the people said.

In the far eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, where most of India’s border forces had been located and where much of the 1962 India-China war played out, newly acquired French-made Rafale fighter jets armed with long-range missiles are being deployed to support the boots on the ground, the people said.

The Indian Navy is also taking action, putting more warships along key sea lanes for longer durations. 

Its efforts include studying energy and trade flows in and out of China, according to an Indian Navy official who asked not to be identified, citing rules for speaking to the media.

The maneuvering follows a period of relative calm after a summer of fighting last year that saw India lose control over about 300 square kilometers (115 square miles) of land along the disputed mountainous terrain, Bloomberg reported. 

The worst clash in June left 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the shift comes as the pandemic ravages India’s hinterland and the economy contracts by the worst in four decades, leaving less money for defense. 

At the same time, India is stepping up security cooperation with fellow Quad partners — the U.S., Japan and Australia — to gain leverage against China.

”The crisis over the last year has brought home the reality to India’s decision makers that China presents the biggest strategic challenge in the future, and it has led to shifting the attention away from Pakistan,” Sushant Singh, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research and visiting lecturer at Yale University said. 

“As this plays out fully, it will alter the geopolitics of the region significantly.”

Still, despite India’s strategic shift and the troop movements, China retains an advantage along the border, said Sana Hashmi, a visiting fellow at the Taipei-based Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation.

”The economic and military asymmetry will remain in place,” she said. “And there is a long way to go for India to bridge this asymmetry.”

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August 28, 2017 It’s as if Xi Jinping is goading Narendra Modi, who would be seriously ill-advised to take on the Chinaman in that remote plateau.
Law & Politics

China is also in Narendra Modi’s face in the Doklam Plateau, which sits at the tri-junction region of Bhutan, China and India. 

It’s as if Xi Jinping is goading Narendra Modi, who would be seriously ill-advised to take on the Chinaman in that remote plateau.

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President Vladimir Putin has rowed back from his triumphalist claims about Russia’s “victory” over the pandemic and admitted that the situation had “taken a turn for the worse” last week @FT
Law & Politics

Russia recorded 20,538 coronavirus cases on Sunday, among its highest numbers since January and more than double the average just a month earlier.

Moscow recorded 114 coronavirus deaths on Sunday, a record during the pandemic.

Despite the vaccine being free and open to all since December, only 16.7m of Russia’s 145m population, or about 13 per cent, have had two shots in a country where mistrust of the state and its medical system is high.

Although Russia has said as much as 90 per cent of the rise in cases is because of the more aggressive Delta variant that emerged in India, the jump also comes from a lackadaisical attitude to health restrictions among officials and the public alike, according to Vasily Vlasov, a professor of epidemiology at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics.

The infection rates may not peak until the first half of July, meaning that Russia will not see the true cost of the third wave until later next month when “the death rate will be absolutely awful”, Raksha added.

“The government set a trap for themselves, because they convinced Putin that Russia had dealt with the virus very efficiently, that we have an excellent healthcare system, and the best vaccine in the world,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of political consultancy R. Politik.

“When cases go up, Putin demands they do something to make the number of infected go down immediately. And they bring him some reports about how they did something. [ . . .] Just to fill out a piece of paper to show that they’re doing something,” Stanovaya added

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The Virus and the Economy
Law & Politics

In 1720 Marseille allowed a ship from plague-ridden Cyprus into port, under pressure from merchants who wanted the goods and didn’t want to wait for the usual quarantine. More than half the population of Marseille died in the next two years

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.@RahulGandhi was mocked for saying this. @SriniSivabalan @srinivasiyc
Law & Politics


What if this is a Harbinger for later in the Year? 

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Nations w/ fast COVID-19 avg exponential growth (daily/total) @jmlukens

Fiji: 9.02%

Liberia: 3.23%

Mongolia: 2.55%

Rwanda: 2.50%

Vietnam: 2.49%

Namibia: 2.12%

Zambia: 2.04%

Afghanistan: 1.78%

Thailand: 1.64%

Cambodia: 1.58%

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One simple, important and oft-neglected fact is that the speed of evolution depends on the size of the epidemic via The Lancet

Big epidemic waves increase the speed of evolution.

That's why we should think twice about lowering our guard now, with the new Delta wave...

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Assuming a fixed vaccine escape mutation probability per infection (p), the risk of a vaccine escape variant arising in a specified time period is 1 – (1 – p)N, where N represents the number of cases in that period.

Assuming a fixed vaccine escape mutation probability per infection (p), the risk of a vaccine escape variant arising in a specified time period is 1 – (1 – p)N, where N represents the number of cases in that period. 

Crucially, this expression indicates that the vaccine escape risk is sensitive to background incidence; the risk of an escape variant appearing within a fixed time is an increasing function of incidence (figure). 

Reducing cases is not only beneficial for decreasing the pressure on health-care systems, but also for lowering the vaccine escape risk.

in summary, high SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates act to increase the vaccine escape risk. 

And the belief in Vaccine Efficacy is now bumping at euphoric levels. Folks I followed on Twitter for their epidemiological excellence now simply recite Vaccine / Inoculation data like a liturgy.



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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
U.S. Economy

Euro 1.1922
Dollar Index 91.906
Japan Yen 110.62
Swiss Franc 0.9198
Pound 1.3875
Aussie 0.7560
India Rupee 74.2185
South Korea Won 1129.49
Brazil Real 4.9263
Egypt Pound 15.6599
South Africa Rand 14.26113

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Military footprint by foreign powers in #Africa. With the increasing attention to the #IndoPacific, the east coast of the continent is getting overcrowded Map via @GPFutures @Zuczkowski_M @vtchakarova

Military footprint by foreign powers in #Africa. With the increasing attention to the #IndoPacific, the east coast of the continent is getting overcrowded as various regional players seek to get an access to the hotspots and the Indian Ocean.  Map via @GPFutures @Zuczkowski_M

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A third #COVID19 wave is happening in Africa. @ONEinAmerica

While the continent was largely spared at the start of the pandemic, earlier this week, Africa hit over 25,000 daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, and has the highest severe COVID-19 death rate in the world. 

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Provincial #COVID19 update, 28/06/21 South Africa @rid1tweets

With the exceptions of NC and FS, infections rising rapidly in all provinces:

• GP up to 64 new cases per 100k Rocket

• NW at its highest point of epidemic Warning sign

• WC up to its 1st wave peak Mount fuji

• MP and LP rising sharply

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November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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.@reda_getachew Jun 27 #Tigray has practically broken the backbone of #AbiyAhmed's genocidal army. #Abiy has essentially lost the war!

@reda_getachew Jun 27 #Tigray has practically  broken the backbone of #AbiyAhmed's genocidal army. With his most functional divisions totally destroyed and in captivity, #theNakedEmperor has little chance to manoeuvre militarily, politically and diplomatically. #Abiy has essentially lost the war!

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February 1st 2021 ‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag

 It’s impossible for the state to manage a guerrilla war up there and at the same time manage to control the rest of the country.

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Turkey's Maghreb–West Africa Economic Architecture Challenges and Opportunities for the European Union via @CATS_Network @michaeltanchum

Turkey's deepening economic outreach to the Maghreb and West Africa carries the potential for Turkey to set the terms of a new interregional pattern of commercial connectivity between Europe and Africa.

Anchored in Algeria's commercial transportation connectivity southward from its Mediterranean coast and Senegal's commercial transportation connectivity westward from its Atlantic shore, 

Turkey could create a commercial architecture of integrated economic activity encompassing 18 nations of the Central Maghreb and West Africa. 

With the stabilisation of Libya and the completion of southward commercial transportation connectivity from Tripoli, Turkey's presence in Libya could contribute to the further consolidation of a Maghreb–West Africa commercial architecture

Turkey may increasingly turn to the use of defence cooperation with African nations as leverage to deepen its economic relations. 

At the same time, the need to develop multinational manufacturing value chains in Africa creates the possibility of Turkish- European joint venture manufacturing in Africa that could serve as a framework for resetting Turkey-EU relations.

Since the 2003 “Strategy for Enhancing the Economic and Commercial Relations with Africa”, implemented by then Prime Minister and now President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's economic relations across the African continent have witnessed a remarkable expansion

During the period from 2003 to 2020, Turkey experienced a four-fold increase in bilateral trade with Africa.

The number of Turkish embassies in Africa jumped from 12 in 2003 to 42 by 2021. 

Correspondingly, Turkish foreign direct investment in Africa has surged to $6.5 billion in 2021, an astounding increase over the 2003 level of just $100 million.

Turkey's rate of growth in African trade surpassed the European Union by a factor of five, Russia's growth rate in African trade surpassed the EU by a factor of seven.

Turkey's economic outreach to Africa has been spearheaded by the country's world- renowned construction sector that has been engaged in over one thousand infrastructure construction projects across the continent.

By 2025, Africa will have over 100 cities with more than one million inhabitants.

The imperative among industries to maintain a low cost base while nearshoring led to the establishment of production facilities in Africa, particularly in North Africa and adjacent regions.

Turkey's efforts to establish a manufacturing base in Africa have focused on three sectors in which Turkey is competitive globally – iron and steel; cement building materials; and textiles and apparel

With Turkish firms involved in 377 Algerian investment projects, Algeria has the world's third highest presence of Turkish companies.

Senegal: Turkey's Atlantic Gateway to West Africa

Senegal's Atlantic coast port of Dakar is the vital connectivity node for West Africa. 

Analogous to Algiers being the Mediterranean terminal point for the Trans-Saharan Highway, Dakar serves as the coastal terminal point for the Dakar-Ndjamena highway (Trans-African Highway Route 5) that traverses all five Sahel nations, and for the Dakar- Lagos highway (Trans-African Highway Route 7) that traverses the coastal urban centres of the ECOWAS nations (Figure 5). 

Thus, Senegal itself forms the hub of a multi-modal route that could be more cost efficient than maritime commercial transportation to the Gulf of Guinea. 

Although much poorer than Côte d'Ivoire, Niger is one of the most strategically important countries for Turkey because of its geographic location on the southern borders of Algeria and Libya. 

In relation to commercial corridors, Niger provides critical connectivity between Algeria and Nigeria via its segment of the Trans-Saharan Highway.

a framework in which Turkey could partner with the European Union in the development of Euro-African value chains through multilateral joint venture partnerships. 

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Zambia: Killings and brutal crackdown against dissent set the tone for August election @amnesty

Years of intensifying repression have pushed Zambia to the brink of a human rights crisis ahead of August’s presidential elections, Amnesty International said today.

''What we have seen in Zambia, especially in the past five years, is an increasingly brutal crackdown on human rights, characterized by brazen attacks on any form of dissent''  Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International's Director for East and Southern Africa

Zambia’s ruling Patriotic Front (PF) party, led since 2016 by President Edgar Lungu, will seek re-election on 12 August. 

The PF came to power in 2011, after Michael Sata’s victory. Sata later died in office in 2014, and the human rights situation has drastically deteriorated under Lungu’s presidency.

Such impunity is now entrenched in Zambia. One human rights defender said:

“There has been such a rise in the levels of impunity that it now seems like a bottomless pit. There does not seem to be any bounds in terms of impunity and violations.” 

“There is evidence of senior government officials fueling the violence in Zambia over the past five years by the police. Anyone suspected to be responsible for human rights violations must be brought to justice in fair trials.”

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14-OCT-2019 ::The Canary in the Coal Mine is Zambia

''My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;

Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!

Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare. 

The lone and level sands

stretch far away.”

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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June 2021

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