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‘You’re a mutant virus, I’m the immune system and it’s my job to expel you from the organism.’ OCTOBER 30, 2014 BY @Dominic2306 The Hollow Men II Misc. |
1. Complexity makes prediction hard. Our world is based on extremely complex, nonlinear, interdependent networks (physical, mental, social).
Properties emerge from feedback between vast numbers of interactions: for example, the war of ant colonies, the immune system’s defences, market prices, and abstract thoughts all emerge from the interaction of millions of individual agents.
Interdependence, feedback, and nonlinearity mean that systems are fragile and vulnerable to nonlinear shocks:
‘big things come from small beginnings’ and problems cascade, ‘they come not single spies / But in battalions’.
Prediction is extremely hard even for small timescales. Effective action and (even loose) control are very hard and most endeavours fail.
Blofeld: Kronsteen, you are sure this plan is foolproof?
Kronsteen: Yes it is, because I have anticipated every possible variation of counter-move.
Politics therefore suffers from a surfeit of narcissists.
The occupants of No10, like Tolstoy’s characters in War and Peace, are blown around by forces they do not comprehend as they gossip, intrigue, and babble to the media.
The MPs and spin doctors steer their priorities according to the rapidly shifting sands of the pundits who they are all spinning, while the pundits shift (to some extent unconsciously) according to the polls.
The outcome? Everybody rushes around in tailspins assembling circular firing squads while the real dynamics of opinion play out largely untouched by their conscious actions.
In terms of a method to ‘manage’ government, it is not far from tribal elders howling incantations around the camp fire after inspecting the entrails of slaughtered animals.
It makes no sense because it is not based on the real world. Because of this systemic dysfunction, the rest of us get repeatedly ‘Macked’.
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Myanmar banks on edge of a coup-caused collapse @asiatimesonline Law & Politics |
Myanmar’s private banks are teetering as anxious depositors rush to withdraw funds amid coup-caused political instability, concerns about the country’s underlying finances and an emerging shortage of kyat currency notes.
Long snaking queues in front of bank ATMs are now a daily sight in the commercial capital of Yangon, causing banks to hand out tokens to 25 or so depositors per day who start lining up to withdraw funds as early as 4 am.
As banks impose new restrictions and fees to deter withdrawals, many in Myanmar fear the country’s political turmoil could cause a banking crisis as the local economy seizes up and Western countries impose new sanctions on the junta’s leaders.
What is clearer is that the Myanmar kyat has sharply depreciated since the coup. The kyat was at $1,350 against the US dollar at the end of January but has since plummeted to around $1,600.
The country’s finances are delicate by any measure. Myanmar requested and received a $350 million Rapid Financing Instrument from IMF to address “urgent balance-of-payment needs” in mid-January, weeks before the coup.
Gross international reserves stood at $6.7 billion, or 4.7 months of imports, as of September 2020 – well below prudent levels.
Since then, the US Treasury Department froze over $1 billion of Myanmar state funds held in US financial institutions in punitive response to the coup.
“You can argue that [the bank runs are] due to economic fundamentals, but the reality is that people have no confidence in the legitimacy of the Myanmar government,” said a senior private businessperson in Yangon who requested anonymity.
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21 OCT 19 :: Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop. Law & Politics |
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot.
Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.
Antonio Gramsci wrote, “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum, a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. now is the time of monsters.”
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“We don’t know what’s happening in the countryside. It could be serious, very serious, or disastrous." - @ramakumarr LA TIMES Misc. |
MUMBAI, India — One by one, the villagers fell sick.
It started with a fever, then breathlessness. By then, it was too late. There was no medicine, oxygen or hospital nearby to save them. Their bodies had to be carried by family to the river and cremated.
“I knew all of them,” said Jitendra Hari Pandey, who estimated that more than 30 people in his village have died since the beginning of April. “They were my neighbors and friends.”
They perished like thousands of others in India’s cities. But because there was no COVID-19 testing in Kayamuddinpur Patti, a speck of land in Uttar Pradesh, one of the nation’s poorest states, the villagers were not counted in the official tally of pandemic deaths.
That total stood at 337,989 Thursday, with more than 28 million infected. Experts said the real numbers, however, could be up to five times higher.
Nowhere is that discrepancy believed to be more stark than in the countryside, where two-thirds of India’s 1.4 billion people live, often in abject poverty, and the lack of health infrastructure and government reporting is obscuring the true scope of the country’s massive second wave.
Without a more accurate picture, experts warn that India could loosen social restrictions too early again, inviting new variants and a third wave of infections that could delay the global recovery.
“We don’t know what’s happening in the countryside,” said R. Ramakumar, a professor of development studies at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences in Mumbai.
“It could be serious, very serious, or disastrous. There’s very little data being put out by the government.”
Villagers don’t have the means to log onto Twitter and plead for oxygen tanks or hospital beds, as so many urban middle- and upper-class Indians have been doing.
Rural dwellers are also disadvantaged when it comes to registering for vaccinations, a process that requires a smartphone and access to a government app called CoWIN.
About 12% of Indians have received at least one dose.
The number of shots administered daily has fallen steadily since a peak in April due to shortages.
What’s available is going overwhelmingly to those who live in cities.
“The pandemic is laying bare the frailty of public health in rural India,” Ramakumar said. “It’s further exposing the inequality.”
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―They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences Misc. |
―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.
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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19 Misc. |
What is clear is that the #COVID19 was bio-engineered The Science [and I am not a Scientist is irrefutable and in the public domain for those with a modicum of intellectual interest.
This information is being deliberately suppressed.
This took me to Thomas Pynchon
“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”
“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”
Now Why are we being led away from this irrefutable Truth
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04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021 Misc. |
Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19.
It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later.
Those who have chosen to propagate this narrative are above the radar and in plain sight and need to be called to account.
The Utter Failure to call these 5th columnists to Account is the clearest Signal that there is no external threat because it is already on the inside.
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China's Xi calls for greater global media reach @Reuters Law & Politics |
China President Xi Jinping said the country must improve the way it tells its "stories" to a global audience as it seeks to develop an international voice that reflects its status on the world stage, official news agency Xinhua reported.
Speaking at a Communist Party study meeting, Xi said it was crucial for China to improve its ability to spread its messages globally in order to present a "true, three-dimensional and comprehensive China", Xinhua said on Tuesday.
China needed to develop an "international voice" to match its national strength and global status, Xinhua said, citing Xi.
It also needed to strengthen propaganda efforts to help foreigners understand the Chinese Communist Party and the way it "strives for the happiness of the Chinese people".
The country needed to create a team of professionals and adopt "precise communication methods" for different regions, he said.
China's relationship with foreign media has become increasingly tense in recent years, with local news outlets such as the Global Times often singling out foreign reporters for what it says is biased and unfair coverage.
Several journalists working for U.S. news organisations were expelled last year as relations between the two sides deteriorated.
China has also banned BBC World News from mainland Chinese television networks following criticism of the British broadcaster's coverage of human rights in the northwestern region of Xinjiang as well as the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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“The meme stock phenomena is coming back with a vengeance after a two-month pause.” World Of Finance |
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. extended Wednesday’s surge in premarket trading as the Reddit retail-trading army continued to gorge on the stock, sending it to heights that has left Wall Street pros perplexed.
After rising 95% to a record high in the last regular session, AMC gained 13% to $71.01 as of 4:02 a.m. in New York.
The money-losing movie-theater chain has a market value of more than $30 billion, making it more valuable than at least half of the companies in the S&P 500 Index.
“Of course their valuation is disconnected from fundamentals, the prices are more a reflection of the impact of social media,” said Sylvain Goyon, a strategist at Oddo.
“The shares rise with the hype and die without it.”
The latest meme stock frenzy appears to have even greater momentum behind it than that of GameStop Corp. back in January.
Some Twitter users reported receiving text messages from family members urging them to buy AMC stock as a way to get rich, while other people gathered at street corners with homemade posters saying “AMC 2 Da Moon” and promoted the stock at pool parties.
As of Wednesday’s close, AMC stock had risen almost 30-fold since the start of this year, far exceeding GameStop’s 15-fold increase.
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08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding World Of Finance |
@elonmusk I am become meme, Destroyer of shorts
Mr. Musk can pump [and dump] just about anything with a tweet. he has superpowers.
And on February 4 He tested that hypothesis
No highs, no lows, only Doge @elonmusk Feb 4
Dogecoin is the people’s crypto @elonmusk Feb 4
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Global Food Prices Surge to Highest in Almost a Decade, @UN Says @markets Commodities |
Global food prices extended their rally to the highest in almost a decade, heightening concerns over bulging grocery bills as economies struggle to exit the Covid-19 crisis.
A United Nations gauge of world food costs climbed for a 12th straight month in May, its longest stretch in a decade.
Higher food costs can accelerate broader inflation, complicating central banks efforts to provide more stimulus.
Drought in key Brazilian growing regions is crippling crops from corn to coffee, and vegetable oil production growth has slowed in Southeast Asia.
That’s boosting costs for livestock producers and risks further straining global grain stockpiles that have been depleted by soaring Chinese demand.
The prolonged gains across the staple commodities are trickling through to store shelves, with countries from Kenya to Mexico reporting higher food costs.
The pain could be particularly pronounced in some of the poorest import-dependent nations, which have limited purchasing power and social safety nets as they grapple with the pandemic.
“Global food prices rose in May at their fastest monthly rate in more than a decade,” the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said in a statement on Thursday.
“A surge in the international prices of vegetable oils, sugar and cereals led the increase in the index.”
The UN’s index is treading at its highest since September 2011, with last month’s gain of 4.8% being the biggest in more than 10 years.
The surge has also stirred memories of 2008 and 2011, when price spikes led to food riots in more than 30 nations.
The world’s hunger problem has already reached its worst in years as the pandemic exacerbates food inequalities, compounding extreme weather and political conflicts.
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21 OCT 19 :: The New Economy of Anger Law & Politics |
Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics,
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot.
Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.
Antonio Gramsci wrote, “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum, a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. now is the time of monsters.”
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Covid has killed over 5 percent of lawmakers in Congo’s Parliament. @nytimes Africa |
The coronavirus has now claimed the lives of 32 lawmakers in the Democratic Republic of Congo — more than 5 percent of its Parliament — the authorities say
“This pandemic is raging — decimating thousands of human lives and exploding in the process the rate of morbidity,” Jean-Marc Kabund, the first vice president of Parliament’s lower house, told lawmakers last week.
Congo — Africa’s second-largest country, with a population of more than 86 million — has reported over 31,000 coronavirus cases and 786 deaths, although those numbers probably vastly underestimate the scale of the outbreak because testing levels remain low nationwide.
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Economic reforms accelerate in the shadow of the pandemic (as the naira nudges 500 to the US dollar) @Africa_Conf Africa |
Faced with a foreign exchange drought, policy makers are rapidly discarding the shibboleths of Buhari-nomics
Ending the fuel subsidy, devaluing the naira, incentives for big oil investors and privatising the power transmission network were all anathema to the policy predilections of President Muhammadu Buhari.
Yet they are all happening with the President's reluctant approval.
The rationale is clear enough. This week marks six years of the Buhari presidency, which was punctuated by two economic crashes.
The first, the oil price slump in 2015, halved export earnings. The second, triggered by the pandemic and concomitant commodity price slump, cut export earnings, pushed up prices and demolished jobs.
Now there are signs of a painfully slow recovery.
In the short term, the treasury can't pay its bills. Although oil revenues, providing 95% of the country's foreign exchange, are up this year, debt-servicing and recurrent spending are crowding out the capital investment needed for modernisation and job creation.
At least 26 out of 36 states saw no capital investment last year. Most of those states are in the north, where over 70% of the poorest Nigerians live, and have been blighted by insurgent attacks, herder-farmer clashes and banditry
In the medium term, the rising unemployment rates – 33% for population of working age and 53.4% for youths aged 15-24 – heralds a political breakdown.
That much is clear to President Buhari who told expatriate Nigerians in Paris on 19 May that the country risked being locked into a mutually-reinforcing cycle of under-investment leading to mass unemployment triggering communal clashes and banditry.
This combined pressure on state finances, jobs and security is forcing sharp policy twists.
First and most obvious is the exchange rate. Godwin Emefiele, Central Bank of Nigeria governor, unceremoniously announced 7.6% devaluation in the naira at a press conference in Abuja on 25 May.
'We found out we were no longer dealing in this so-called CBN official rate for transactions,' said Emefiele. 'We are still running a managed float, we are monitoring the market.'
A trader in Nigeria assets said the dropping of the central bank's official rate and its merger with the so-called Nafex rate (introduced to encourage exporters and investors) is seen as a deliberate change in stance to boost US dollar inflows.
This isn't the end of the story. Now, traders are pushing the government to narrow the spread between the Nafex rate averaging this year at N410=US$1 and the parallel rate at which a US dollar was selling for N495 in the last week of May.
Emefiele and his advisors will be studying the inflows over the next month.
Their hope is the parallel rate will start to fall once the dollars start returning but there are no guarantees.
There are also risks, such as stoking inflation. Food prices are already at record levels because of insecurity and rising transport costs.
Fuel prices are set to rise, both from the logic of the devaluation and the inability of the government to finance the fuel subsidy scheme.
Staunch opposition from citizens' groups and trade unions will create more political ructions.
Less clear is the trajectory of the government's long delayed Petroleum Industry Bill.
It had been set to go through both houses in the National Assembly by the middle of this year
Now, we hear, there have been some amendments behind the scenes which could cause further delays to the law.
This comes as several international oil investors are discussing operating terms with Nigeria's state oil company for the Bonga South West project, worth some $10bn and including one of the biggest fields in the region.
Plotting a path through the global energy transition and falling oil consumption, the international companies will drive a hard bargain.
Royal Dutch Shell, key to the offshore Bonga project, worries Abuja with its declared intention to sell all its onshore oil assets in Nigeria.
Debates on how to bring in new investors, switching emphasis from oil to gas, and restructuring the energy sector have been swirling around for decades.
But successive governments have shown little sign of urgency.
After a succession of disturbing analyses and forecasts from the Treasury, the Vice President's team and his own Economic Advisory Council, President Buhari has agreed to an economic reset.
How quickly, or even whether, these policy changes can turn around Nigeria's unwieldy economy under the current harsh global conditions will be the next focus for Buhari's advisors
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Tanzania plans to begin the construction of a delayed $30 billion liquefied natural gas project in 2023, following the resumption of talks with companies including Equinor ASA. @markets Africa |
Tanzania plans to begin the construction of a delayed $30 billion liquefied natural gas project in 2023, following the resumption of talks with companies including Equinor ASA.
Construction is expected to take about five years, Energy Minister Medard Kalemani told lawmakers on Thursday.
The project gained momentum after President Samia Suluhu Hassan took office in March, and directed her administration to fast-track delayed investments.
Plans for an LNG plant on Tanzania’s southern coast and a pipeline connecting offshore fields have been under consideration since 2014.
Talks, however, stalled for more than a year under Hassan’s predecessor John Magufuli.
The announcement on construction of the project comes months after Total SE suspended work on a similar plan in neighboring Mozambique following insurgent attacks.
Tanzania’s project, which has lagged Mozambique, is set to benefit from Hassan’s push to boost investment and accelerate economic growth in a nation where policy uncertainty had stifled business.
Hassan ordered the resumption of negotiations with the companies in May, about four months after Equinor’s decision to take a $982 million impairment on the project following failure to settle fiscal and commercial terms with Tanzania.
“We expect to conclude negotiations for a host government agreement and review production sharing agreements” by the end of June 2022, Kalemani said.
The government has finalized compensation procedures with more than 600 residents of the southern Tanzanian town of Lindi to pave way for the project, he said.
Tanzania and the companies are discussing a proposed two-train onshore LNG plant to export gas from the East African nation.
Other project partners include Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp., Sophi Energy Ltd. and Pavilion Energy Pte Ltd.
Separately, the government is building a pipeline network to connect and distribute gas to more than 10,000 homes and factories, mostly in the commercial hub of Dar es Salaam, Kalemani said.
Tanzania and Mozambique have for more than a decade been sub-Saharan Africa’s foremost gas frontier-investment destinations after explorers found more than 100 trillion cubic feet of the resources in their territories.
Mozambique’s projects, with companies including Total, Eni SpA and Exxon Mobil and a projected investment of at least $60 billion, are threatened by an insurgency in the nation’s gas-rich regions.
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