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Thursday 07th of January 2021
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4-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021 Africa |
Robert Frank Children with Sparklers in Provincetown Massachusetts, 1958 @deryainciderya
New Year's Eve: Wuhan New Years Eve 2020
Times Square New Years Eve 2020
in many respects, 2020 was simultaneously both fathomable and unfathomable. it was fathomable because the Pathogen has always been there since time immemorial and lurking in the recesses. It was fathomable because Mankind has always reacted similarly as Nietzsche noted
"Time is a flat circle. Everything we have done or will do we will do over and over and over again- forever."
“Making masks a culture war issue was the dumbest thing imaginable,” said an Advisor to President Trump but remember it was also a culture war issue during the Spanish Flu.
The Virus and The Economy
In 1720 Marseille allowed a ship from plague-ridden Cyprus into port, under pressure from merchants who wanted the goods and didn’t want to wait for the usual quarantine. More than half the population of Marseille died in the next two years
Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Chancellor Merkel pronounced “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”
And wherever You care to turn whether it is the US under Trump, the United Kingdom under Boris Johnson, we are witnessing massive decline in the cognitive capacity of leadership and a steep decline in the intellectual capacity of the cognitive capacity of the corpus.
We live in an Era of gobbledygook debate, a moment of complete combustion. Just open your social media account and its a torrent of bite sized nonsense. This is the Achilles Heel which the Sun Tzu Maestro Xi Jinping understood and the Viral War he launched was a perfectly aimed Bullet.
Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19.
It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later. There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.
the ONLY place where this thing could emerge, naturally or Artificially, is by passage in HUMANIZED MICE.
"Most logical" explanation for SARS-CoV-2 is that it comes from a lab – virologist
Those who have chosen to propagate this narrative are above the radar and in plain sight and need to be called to account. The Utter Failure to call these 5th columnists to Account is the clearest Signal that there is no external threat because it is already on the inside.
The ''warp speed'' Vaccine Roll Out is chasing the coat Tails of the Virus.
''Reported'' Daily numbers are in the 650,000 to 750,000 daily range and set to undergo an exponential Phase Shift higher this month.
Therefore the Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved.
Markets surfed higher last year on a simply unprecedented Liquidity Wave and it is difficult for now to see an About Face in that regard.
In fact I expect all G7 Curves 0-10 Years to be deep in negative territory in 2021. [The Optimal Trade is to be long Dec 2021 Short Sterling or Call Options on the same contract LZ21 (Dec '21) 100.065s]
Developed Equity Markets were lifted to records by the Tidal wave of Free Money and clearly we can expect this Momentum to spill over into January.
However, the dislocation between underlying economies and market capitalisation is now extreme and Buyers should remember the story of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Bubble.
Graham writes,
Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ‘could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.’ Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003’s] money. For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words ‘South Sea’ in his presence.
The Dollar has been a one way Bet to the downside since H2 2020 and has underpinned the rebound in the Commodity Markets and in EM Assets. Whilst the Trend is Your Friend I would be buying 1 Year Call Options because the risk with the Dollar remains asymmetric and to the Upside particularly if Economies do not meet some of the rose tinted spectacle forecasts for 2021 GDP.
As I write this on the 3rd of January 2021 $BTC has touched 35,000.00 in a parabolic shift higher. I believe $BTC's recent surge puts it now in ''nose-bleed'' territory. I believe its a Trading Sell with a very wide Stop. It is currently at its maximum ''Safe Haven'' / Fiat debasement premia.
My Top Trades are Gold and Silver. I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00
I wish you a wonderful 2021.
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The Way We Live Now World Of Finance |
''You felt the land taking you back to something that was familiar, something you had known at some time but had forgotten or ignored, but which was always there.You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River |
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04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021 Law & Politics |
Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
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09-NOV-2020 :: “You can't eat the orange and throw the peel away - a man is not a piece of fruit.” Law & Politics |
Some Folks seem convinced that the Prophet of Populism Donald J. Trump is going to lead his 70m Disciples into some major 5th generational chess moves but surely just as likely is an Unfolding psychological breakdown played out in front of our eyes on TV like Willy Loman in Arthur Miller's Death of Salesman
“You can't eat the orange and throw the peel away - a man is not a piece of fruit.”
“If personal meaning, in this cheer leader society, lies in success, then failure must threaten identity itself.”
I’m tired to the death. The flute has faded away. He sits on the bed beside her, a little numb. I couldn’t make it. I just couldn’t make it, Linda.
Counterintuitively, The Trump Vladislav Surkov Talking Points which of course always feature George Soros are strangely ineffective and a little like a receding tide.
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Global 732,528 #COVID19 cases yesterday above 635,788/day 1wk avg. exponentially growing on avg 0.75% each day. @jmlukens Misc. |
Global 732,528 #COVID19 cases yesterday above 635,788/day 1wk avg. Global total now 86,388,733 and exponentially growing on avg 0.75% each day. Deaths increased 15,400 yesterday, above 11,256 1wk avg, and 1,868,350 death total on track to 2M in 2wks. |
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How's the avocado market? @jeffh690 World Currencies |
08-JAN-2018 :: The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy.
The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.
Gladwellian level move. “The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire”- Malcolm Gladwell.
High tech, millenial, crypto, avocado economy exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential and even non-linear characteristics not unlike Ebola.
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