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Tuesday 02nd of February 2021
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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences. Misc. |
In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions
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Portugal reported close to half of all its COVID-19 deaths in January @Reuters Misc. |
Hospitals across the nation of just over 10 million appear on the verge of collapse, with ambulances queuing sometimes for hours for lack of beds and some health units struggling to find enough refrigerated space to preserve bodies.
Officials have blamed the huge increase in the infection and death rates on the more contagious British variant of the disease, and also acknowledged that a relaxation of restrictions on social contact over the Christmas holidays played a role.
In January, a total of 5,576 people died from the coronavirus, representing 44.7% of all 12,482 fatalities since the virus started to spread in the Iberian country in March last year, data from health authority DGS showed.
The association representing funeral homes warned that public hospitals were running out of refrigerated space to preserve bodies of COVI-19 victims, and some, including Portugal’s largest hospital Santa Maria, have installed extra cold containers to ease pressure on their morgues.
A total of 711,018 infections have been reported since March 2020, with 43% of those infections in January, according to DGS.
Portugal has the world’s highest seven-day rolling average of new daily cases per million inhabitants, according to data tracker ourworldindata.org
With a total of 858 people with COVID-19 in intensive care units and 6,694 in hospital wards,
Portuguese hospitals are running out of beds and there is a shortage of doctors and nurses.
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The new Brazilian variant of COVID-19 is already present in 91 percent of COVID-19 cases analyzed in the state of Amazonas Misc. |
In December, the one named “P.1” was detected in 51 percent of the samples analyzed in the laboratories and in the first half of January that percentage jumped substantially to 91 percent, which confirms that it has been become the predominant lineage in Amazon.
In this sense, the fact that it shares mutations with the variants originating in the United Kingdom and South Africa, and that it has been found more frequently in genetic studies, suggests that it is “more transmissible”, according to Felipe Naveca , a researcher at the Leônidas Institute. & María Deane, linked to Fiocruz
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SimPlot similarity analysis Misc. |
Our SimPlot analysis (Fig. 1a) conducted with 25 CoV genomes (see the ‘Methods’ section for a detailed data description) shows that the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 genomes share 96.14% of whole-genome identity, while the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and GD Pangolin genomes are 90.34% identical.
The RaTG13 and GD Pangolin CoV genomes are by far the closest ones to the SARS-CoV-2 genome.
For example, only 85.43% of whole-genome identity is shared between the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and GX Pangolin CoV genomes.
Given such a close resemblance between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13, bat is a likely reservoir of origin for SARS-CoV-2, as was the case during previous CoV outbreaks.
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Denmark suspends flights from Dubai amid doubts over virus tests @AP Emerging Markets |
Denmark has temporarily suspended all flights from the United Arab Emirates for five days after suspicion arose the coronavirus tests that can be obtained before leaving Dubai are not reliable, authorities announced Friday.
Danish authorities faced a “concrete and serious citizen inquiry into" how the tests are carried out at Dubai entry and exit points, he said, and "therefore we need to be absolutely sure that there are no problems."
Engelbrecht said at least "one citizen" brought the South African variant of the virus "back from Dubai."
He did not identify the person. Dubai has seen an increase in the number of South African residents as the latter country's economy deteriorated in recent years
On Friday, as the UAE shattered its 11th consecutive daily infection record with 3,552 new cases, Dubai's state-run media office announced strict new limits on weddings, social events, and private parties beginning next Wednesday, restricting all gatherings to 10 immediate family members.
Wedding parties at hotels and other venues previously had been capped at 200.
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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences. Africa |
In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
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UPDATE 2-Ethiopia's debt relief request to put other DSSI nations under scrutiny - @MorganStanley @Reuters Africa |
LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Ethiopia’s request for debt relief in recent days is likely to put other poor countries also eligible for the G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) under bond market pressure, Morgan Stanley analysts said on Monday.
Ethiopia has said it plans to seek a restructuring of its sovereign debt under a new common framework of the G20 group of major economies designed to help with the financial pressures of COVID-19, and is examining all options.
The news pushed its government bonds to their biggest daily fall on Friday amid worries that private sector holders will be forced to take a writedown and also trigger a default in the eyes of the main credit rating agencies.
“G20 DSSI-eligible sovereigns and those requesting IMF programmes may come under additional scrutiny following Ethiopia’s request for debt relief,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note to clients.
“The key issue would be how insistent bilateral creditors would be on the private sector participating. A potentially tougher stance by the bilateral sector could weigh on emerging market high yield (countries with weaker credit ratings).”
In all, 73 countries here are eligible for a temporary suspension of debt service payments owed to their official bilateral creditors. So far, around 40 have requested to benefit.
The G20 has also called on private creditors such as investment funds to participate in the initiative on comparable terms. The suspension period, originally set to end on Dec. 31, 2020, now runs until June and could be extended further.
Morgan Stanley said it was putting the DSSI countries in focus and other low-rated countries into three main groups.
The first includes those that still have manageable debt levels, access to borrowing markets or can tap existing International Monetary Fund programmes such as Egypt, Jordan, Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Senegal.
A second category where fiscal finances are worsening - requiring either an “extremely supportive” external backdrop or new IMF support to get through - includes Pakistan, Cameroon Kenya, Costa Rica and recently defaulted Argentina and Ecuador.
Cameroon’s bonds seemed particularly spooked, suffering their biggest drop on Monday since March’s initial global rout.
The final group has those currently in default such as Zambia and Lebanon as well as those seen as at risk for a while such as Sri Lanka, which faces a $1 billion redemption in July followed by $500 million-$1 billion ones every 6-9 months thereafter.
Tunisia was also now in that category with ongoing protests now making budget savings even more difficult, along with heavily indebted Mozambique and Congo, and finally Laos and Maldives where COVID-19 has hammered their tourism sectors.
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Turning to Africa the Spinning Top Africa |
The real challenge is the Economic Emergency.
The latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa projects economic activity in the region to decline by 3.0% in 2020 and recover by 3.1% in 2021. @IMFNews
The IMF is so bright eyed and bushy tailed and I want some of whatever Pills they are popping.
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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province. Africa |
Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
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Yields on Ethiopia’s $1 billion of 2024 Eurobonds climbed 26 basis points to 8.85% by 1:50 p.m. in London after jumping 207 points on Friday to the highest since May @markets Africa |
Ethiopia may approach private creditors for debt talks after it reviews liabilities with official lenders, amid security risks that are adding to investors’ worries
Yields on Ethiopia’s $1 billion of 2024 Eurobonds climbed 26 basis points to 8.85% by 1:50 p.m. in London after jumping 207 points on Friday to the highest since May.
The premium investors demand to hold the nation’s dollar bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries widened 31 basis points to 807, compared with the 538 average for African sovereign issuers, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.
As with earlier bilateral debt relief, including via the Paris Club, Eurobond holders can choose not to participate in the program, according to the Morgan Stanley analysts.
“The key issue would be how insistent bilateral creditors would be on the private sector participating,” they said.
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Kenyan Flower Growers Need Freight for Valentine’s Day @markets @herbling Kenyan Economy |
Reduced air-freight capacity and lockdowns in key European markets threaten to hurt Kenyan flower sales for Valentine’s Day.
Kenya’s flower producers are receiving orders for Feb. 14, but freight capacity is “our biggest worry,” Clement Tulezi, chief executive of the Kenya Flower Council, said on Monday.
Freight demand typically doubles to 5,500 tons in the week before Valentine’s Day, requiring an additional weekly shipping capacity of 3,000 tons, he said.
The East African nation exports about 70% of its flowers via Amsterdam, and restrictions in the Netherlands and other key export markets such as the U.K. are likely to hinder sales.
Kenya has allowed Ethiopian Airlines to deploy additional freighters on the Nairobi-Amsterdam route to ease capacity constraints, according to Tulezi.
While flower exports by volume declined 9.3% last year, the value of shipments increased to 108 billion shillings ($980 million) from 104 billion in 2019.
Freight costs have more than halved to about $2.20 per kilogram, from a high of $5.20 during last year’s lockdowns.
“We’re operating in an environment of low orders, low demand, low prices and increased costs,” Billy Coulson, managing director of Nini Flowers, said by phone.
“The retail market is doing well as supermarkets are open. I’m cautiously optimistic.”
Sales at Royal FloraHolland, which runs four auction sites in the Netherlands, look “quite positive” in the lead-up to Valentine’s Day, with lower supply pushing up prices, said company spokesman Michel van Schie.
Prices are about 16% higher than the same period last year, he said.
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