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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 25th of February 2021

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08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding
World Of Finance

The price impulse will be emitted from the gold deliveries situation.

The gold story is very similar to the #Thesilversqueeze a lot of commentators I follow have been very snooty about the merry band of redditeers but the fact of the matter is very simple. 

The paper markets trade a multiple of the physical market and the paper ‘’tail’’ has been wagging the precious metals ‘’dog’’ the redditeers can see this. 

If you squeeze the physical markets then you reprice the paper market and exponentially and asymmetrically to the upside. I expect that to happen this year.

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04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021
World Of Finance

My Top Trades are Gold and Silver. I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00

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The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock BY T. S. ELIOT

S’io credesse che mia risposta fosse

A persona che mai tornasse al mondo,

Questa fiamma staria senza piu scosse.

Ma percioche giammai di questo fondo

Non torno vivo alcun, s’i’odo il vero,

Senza tema d’infamia ti rispondo.

Let us go then, you and I,

When the evening is spread out against the sky

Like a patient etherized upon a table;

Let us go, through certain half-deserted streets,

The muttering retreats

Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels

And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:

Streets that follow like a tedious argument

Of insidious intent

To lead you to an overwhelming question ...

Oh, do not ask, “What is it?”

Let us go and make our visit.

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Algorithmic Master [Blaster] and Sun Tzu Maestro
Law & Politics

''The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting''

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How Xi Jinping Is Reshaping China and What It Means for the West @WSJ
Law & Politics

Xi Jinping has brought more change to China than any leader since Deng Xiaoping.

His background, though, showed a more chauvinistic worldview, grander ambitions to restore China and more tolerance for risk.

Those tendencies led to greater military mobilization, mass internment of ethnic Uighur Muslims in northwestern China and a decision to scrap presidential terms that signaled his intention to stay in power indefinitely.

“Xi Jinping Thought”

It retains much of the state capitalist model that powered China’s economic rise, but revives Maoist methods of mass mobilization, uses digital surveillance to replicate Stalin’s totalitarian social controls and makes fewer allowances for minorities or residents of Taiwan and Hong Kong.

"His goal is to make the whole world see China as a great power, and him as a key figure in making it great,” said Xiao Gongqin, a scholar who advocates so-called enlightened autocracy in China. “At heart, he’s a nationalist.”

Although a supporter of Mr. Xi, like many in China’s elite Mr. Xiao said he worries Mr. Xi “lacks a spirit of compromise,” and that “there is no mechanism to correct him.”

Central to Mr. Xi’s vision is a greater state role in guiding the economy, including asserting control over private entrepreneurs.

In November, the Journal reported exclusively that Mr. Xi personally halted the $34.4 billion initial public offering of Ant Group, a financial technology behemoth. 

Mr. Xi’s government has fueled nationalism through a patriotic education campaign that includes changes to textbooks and slick pro-China videos targeting young people through social media.

Online, mobs often harass and silence anyone perceived as critical of China or its leadership in what some see as an echo of the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution.

“Their goal is to make you feel helpless, hopeless, devoid of any support, and break you down so you begin to see activism as something foolish that doesn’t benefit anyone, and gives pain to everyone around you,” said Yaxue Cao

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7 OCT 19 :: China turns 70
Law & Politics

''Longing on a large scale makes history.” wrote Don DeLillo

Hu Xijin ‘’This is the legendary DF41 ICBM. But it is not a tale. Today it is displayed at Tiananmen Square I touched one about four years ago in the production plant. No need to fear it. Just respect it and respect China that owns it’’.

The President for Life and a fulfilment of the promise that Mao Zedong made on the founding of the People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949 that China would stand up.

They have “stood up.” 

Xi’s model is one of technocratic authoritarianism and a recent addition to his book shelf include 

The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. Xi is building an Algorithmic Society

But Xi has taken the propagation of ideology and the cult of personality to extremes not seen since the days of Chairman Mao. 

Xi in fact has replaced Jesus in Churches and Mohamed in the mosques. “Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,” 

“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!” he added

Joshua Wong told German Media “Hongkong ist das neue Berlin”

The World in the 21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.

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They now turn to rule over the people by means of what could be dubbed “big data totalitarianism” and “WeChat terror.” @ChinaFile #COVID19 Xu Zhangrun
Law & Politics

You will all be no better than fields of garlic chives, giving yourselves up to being harvested by the blade of power, time and time again. @ChinaFile #COVID19

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With social media posts about the #coronavirus being censored in #China here‘s a bit of cool protest art going around...@StephenMcDonell
Law & Politics

If you look closely here you'll see references to #China's tech companies Huawei, Wechat (微信), Alibaba etc. Also 和谐 hexie over the eyes means "harmony" (from former Pres Hu catchphrase). 

In China if you've been censored you've been "harmonised".

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PLA bombers practice maritime strike amid foreign provocations in S. China Sea @globaltimesnews
Law & Politics

At least 10 bombers of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command recently held maritime strike exercises in a move that showed China has more than anti-ship ballistic missiles to deter hostile vessels, analysts said on Wednesday. 

The drills come at a time when countries from outside the region, including the US and France, are making provocations in the South China Sea.

Judging from the report footage, military observers identified the two types of bombers as the H-6J, the PLA Navy's most advanced bomber, which is  reportedly capable of carrying six anti-ship cruise missiles and is equipped with extra electronic countermeasure pods, and the H-6G, an older generation naval bomber that can carry four missiles.

The latest exercises also took place on a similar occasion, after US' Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group conducted dual carrier operations with the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group in the South China Sea on February 9.

The US is not the only country from outside of the region dispatching warships to the South China Sea. 

France also sent the amphibious assault ship Tonnerre and the frigate Surcouf last week, as they are scheduled to transit the South China Sea twice, Paris-based navalnews.comreported on February 18. 

Foreign media have been reporting that the UK is also planning to deploy an aircraft carrier strike group to the South China Sea.

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08-FEB-2021 :: We are at peak vaccine euphoria

We are at peak vaccine euphoria

Global covid19 cases [are] falling at just under 2%/day @video4me

No one wants to think that

If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but a "British variant" that is surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal

They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.

We've updated our preprint on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01, aka B.1.1.7, with new statistical and modelling methods. 

Headline: we estimate VOC is 43–82% more transmissible than preexisting variants.

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A multinomial fit to baseline sequencing data further shows that 501Y.V1, 501Y.V2 and 501Y.V3 make up an estimated 62% [57-66%], 6% [4-8%] and 2% [0-4%] of lab diagnoses today @TWenseleers

A multinomial fit to baseline sequencing data further shows that 501Y.V1, 501Y.V2 and 501Y.V3 make up an estimated 62% [57-66%], 6% [4-8%] and 2% [0-4%] of lab diagnoses today, or 70% [63-76%], 6% [3-9%] and 3% [0-8%] of all new infections 

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The evolution of the basic reproduction number Re in Belgium (black line) is now heavily influenced by the spread of the more contagious 501Y.V1 strain (red line) @TWenseleers

The evolution of the basic reproduction number Re in Belgium (black line) is now heavily influenced by the spread of the more contagious 501Y.V1 strain (red line), and has resulted in an increase in diagnosed cases again since this week. 

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2169

Dollar Index 90.043

Japan Yen 106.02

Swiss Franc 0.9064

Pound 1.4137

Aussie 0.7973

India Rupee 72.4655

South Korea Won 1108.815

Brazil Real 5.4062

Egypt Pound 15.6774

South Africa Rand 14.5652

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Copper at ten-year high, closing in on all-time high. Congo produced about 1.5m tons in 2020. Huge news for DRC government. (Graph below since year 2000.) @mjkcongo

Copper at ten-year high, closing in on all-time high. Congo produced about 1.5m tons in 2020. Add Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula to that amount by the end of 2021. Huge news for DRC government. (Graph below since year 2000.)

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Within a few kilometers of the #Sudan-#Ethiopia border we have Sudanese Armed Forces, Rapid Support Forces, various Sudanese tribal militias, Ethiopian Defense Forces, Eritrean Defense Forces, Amhara state militia, 60,000+ Tigrayan refugees. What could g

So currently within a few kilometers of the #Sudan-#Ethiopia border we have Sudanese Armed Forces, Rapid Support Forces, various Sudanese tribal militias, Ethiopian Defense Forces, Eritrean Defense Forces, Amhara state militia, 60,000+ Tigrayan refugees. What could go wrong?

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Ethiopia’s Forest in the Clouds NASA Earth Observatory

There are few places in Ethiopia—or the world—quite like the Harenna Forest. 

Spread across the southern slopes of the Bale Mountains, it is the second-largest stand of moist tropical forest in Ethiopia and the largest cloud forest in the country.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image of the forest on February 5, 2021. 

The forest grows in highland areas at elevations of 1400 to 3200 meters (4,600 to 10,500 feet) above sea level. 

From the mostly treeless Sanetti Plateau, an escarpment drops sharply into a series of forested ecosystems defined by altitude, including areas where bamboo, tree heather, fig, fern pines, hagenia, and wild coffee thrive. 

Forest wildlife includes monkeys, baboons, bushbucks, warthogs, lions, leopards, hyena, and wild dogs.

While there are dense tracts of forest south of the Sanetti Plateau, a Global Forest Watch analysis of satellite data indicates that there was significant deforestation along roads and stream valleys in Hawo, Kumbi, Likimisa Bokore, and Soriba between 2000 and 2019. 

The data also show many small-scale forest clearings along the escarpment. 

Common causes for deforestation in this area include charcoal production, firewood collection, and clearing for agriculture. 

The analysis is led by a team of University of Maryland scientists and derived from data on tree cover loss collected by Landsat satellites.

Loss of forest cover in this region could affect some distinctive cultural practices. 

Harenna Forest is one of the few places where people still harvest wild arabica beans to make coffee. 

The forest is also noted for being one of the few places where people still practice a traditional style of beekeeping that involves scaling trees to maintain hand-carved hives.

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Ethiopia is currently the second most affected country in the region in terms of confirmed cases and third in deaths. .@WHOAFRO #AFROWeekly

The country is currently showing an upward trend in new cases, with a 20.2% increase in confirmed cases in the past seven days, up to 21 February 2021. 

During this period, 60% of regions contributed to confirmed cases, with a test positivity of 15.8%, compared to an overall test positivity of 6.9%. 

The number of deaths reported has also increased by 85% between week 7 (week ending 14 February 2021) and week 8 (week ending 21 February 2021).

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.@WHOAFRO overall number of new daily cases and deaths reported has continued to fall for sixth consecutive week with 64 266 new cases last week a 16% decline & 2 085 new deaths, a 31% decline #AFROWeekly

During week 7 (15-21 February 2021), 33 (72%) countries reported a percentage decline in new cases while 13 (28%) had an increase in new daily cases.

The top five countries reporting the highest case numbers include; South Africa (1 503 796, 54.3%), Ethiopia (152 806, 5.5%), Nigeria (152 074, 5.5%), Algeria (111 917, 4.0%) and Kenya (104 201, 3.8%), accounting for 2 024 794 (73.2%) of all cases.

The region’s case fatality ratio (CFR) is 2.5%. This is higher than the global CFR of 2.2% and the highest of all the WHO regions.

Forty-two of the WHO African Region’s 47 countries are experiencing community transmission. 

Twenty of these countries are experiencing high or uncontrolled levels of community transmission.

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Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa 336,017 @BeautifyData

-35.38% below 520,000 record high from January 2021 

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#Tanzania's top diplomat in #Nairobi @JSimbachawene has REACTIVATED his twitter account hours after he temporarily DELETED it. @MwangiMaina_

Kenyans on twitter, including journalists had earlier criticized the envoy for "warning the local media" against reporting #Covid19 in his country.

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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

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South Africa boosts vaccine spending in 'balancing act' amid debt worries @Reuters

The deficit is forecast to more than double to 14% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the 2020/21 fiscal year, from 5.7% in the previous year.

The Treasury said a mass vaccination programme would help spur GDP growth to 3.3% this year following a severe contraction of 7.2% in 2020.

“This year we face an exceptionally difficult balancing act,” the Treasury said.

“On one side is a raging pandemic ... on the other side is a weak economy, with massive unemployment, that is burdened by ailing state-owned companies, the highest budget deficit in our history and rapidly growing public debt.”

The rand scaled a 13-month peak and bonds rallied after the budget was announced.

The Treasury lowered its gross debt estimate over the medium term, but it remains relatively high - projected at 87.3% of GDP by 2023/24, compared with an estimated 92.9% in October.

“Certainly, compared to last October, we are in a better place. But our assessment ... still stands: our public finances are dangerously overstretched,” Finance Minister Tito Mboweni told lawmakers.

Mboweni said the corporate income tax rate will be trimmed to 27% on or after April 1, 2022, from 28% currently.

The Treasury also forecast a reduction in local currency bond issuance, as it uses more of its existing cash balances.

To raise revenue, fuel levies will increase by 27 cents per litre, while an 8% rise in the excise duties on alcohol and tobacco products would be implemented.

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.@NationMediaGrp share price data and Earnings releases here
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Par Value:                  2.50/-

Closing Price:           13.05

Total Shares Issued:          188542286.00

Market Capitalization:        2,460,476,832

EPS:             4.5

PE:                 2.900


Nation Media Reports H1 2020 Earnings through June 2020

H1 Turnover 3.2639b versus 4.54804b

H1 Gross Profit 2.6227b versus 3.6108b

H1 [Loss] Profit before Income Tax and exceptional Item [145.4m] versus 651.9m

H1 Exceptional Items [182.6m] versus [71.1m]

H1 [Loss] Profit before Tax and after exceptional Item [328m] versus 580.8m

H1 [Loss] Profit after Tax [375.2m] versus 403.7m

H1 EPS [1.9] versus 2.2

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2021

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