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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 04th of March 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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Young leopard in #Tsavo East this morning. I saw hundreds of Buffalo, scores of elephant, kudu, hippo, hartebeest, birds, tawny grass, swathes of green - between Malindi and Manyani. @TheHorseCure
Africa


Young leopard in #Tsavo East this morning. I saw hundreds of Buffalo, scores of elephant, kudu, hippo, hartebeest, birds, tawny grass, swathes of green - but just one car in 4 hours on superb roads between Malindi and Manyani

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François Heisbourg: «Le coronavirus, c’est un Tchernobyl chinois à la puissance dix» @FHeisbourg @Le_Figaro VOX H/T @gdemaneuf
Law & Politics




LE FIGARO. - Un an après la propagation planétaire du coronavirus, qui a déjà fait 2,5 millions de morts et provoqué une crise économique majeure, tout le monde semble avoir oublié l’origine chinoise du virus. Comment se fait-il que personne ne demande de comptes à Pékin?

François HEISBOURG. - Parce qu’on a laissé la Chine bâtir son narratif, celui d’une gestion triomphale du virus, qui tranche avec la décadence supposée de l’Occident - sans lui apporter la moindre contradiction. 

En laissant s’installer ce discours, en nous abstenant de toute réaction, on a permis à la Chine d’être quitte de la question de sa responsabilité initiale.





LE FIGARO. - A year after the global spread of the coronavirus, which has already claimed 2.5 million lives and caused a major economic crisis, everyone seems to have forgotten the Chinese origin of the virus. How is it that nobody asks Beijing to account? François HEISBOURG. - 

Because we let China build its narrative, that of a triumphant management of the virus, which contrasts with the supposed decadence of the West - without bringing it the slightest contradiction.

By allowing this rhetoric to settle in, by abstaining from any reaction, China has been freed from the question of its initial responsibility.


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Fundamental because you have to know how it happened to prevent things from happening again. @gdemaneuf
Law & Politics


And potentially explosive because, if China is at fault, the communist power will be indicted, inside and outside the country. [cont]

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It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later.
Misc.


Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19. 

It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later. 

There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.



“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

 “There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on.”

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Algorithmic Master [Blaster] and Sun Tzu Maestro
Law & Politics


''The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting''

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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics



Virilio maintains that the global village has created hyperterrorism as its "integral accident" (just as derailment is the integral accident of a train). eager to exploit the audiovisual impact of real-time mass communication

The Pentagon is (remember Saddam's statue being toppled?), but unfortunately so are the terrorists. 

The same impulse drives contemporary art, says Virilio, and he often returns to Stockhausen's incendiary remark that 9/11 was "the greatest work of art ever".

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'More Dangerous And More Widespread': Conspiracy Theories Spread Faster Than Ever @NPR
Law & Politics





Millions of people watched the moon landing live on TV in 1969. But more than 50 years later, Bonnie Garland still isn't buying it.

"I personally do not believe that man has ever been out of the atmosphere," says Garland, a self-described housewife from Tucson, Ariz. 

Garland also is skeptical that the Sept. 11 attacks were carried out by 19 al-Qaeda terrorists – even though they were.


That poll found that nearly one in 10 respondents don't believe humans actually landed on the moon. 

Bogus conspiracy theories like this have always been a part of U.S. history. 

Only now, experts say they're spreading faster and wider than ever before – accelerated by social media, encouraged by former President Trump, and weaponized in a way not seen before in American history.


Followers of this baseless QAnon conspiracy believe that Trump will vanquish a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophile elites who secretly run the country in a cataclysmic event known as "the Storm."

"Social media tends to drive the fringe to the mainstream," Donovan says.

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What a difference 2 weeks makes. @EricTopol
Misc.



Conclusions

We are exiting the trough and turning higher. 

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If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but "variants" that [are] surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal
Misc.



Conclusions

I expect the below captioned P.1 Lineage to be dominant in 8-12 weeks notwithstanding the Focus on SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 

My Thesis is based on the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World. 

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2053

Dollar Index 90.98

Japan Yen 107.144

Swiss Franc 0.9195

Pound 1.3953

Aussie 0.7808

India Rupee 72.7005

South Korea Won 1124.409

Brazil Real 5.6201

Egypt Pound 15.6798

South Africa Rand 15.05

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The Platform Economy
World Of Finance


“The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire”- Malcolm Gladwell

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Covid-19 Variant in Brazil Overwhelms Local Hospitals, Hits Younger Patients @WSJ.
Emerging Markets



Brazil’s daily death toll from the disease rose to its highest level yet this week, pushing the country’s total number of Covid-19 fatalities past a quarter of a million. 

On Tuesday, Brazil reported a record 1,641 Covid fatalities. Neighbor Peru is struggling to curb a second wave of infections.

The new variant, known as P.1, is 1.4 to 2.2 times more contagious than versions of the virus previously found in Brazil, and 25% to 61% more capable of reinfecting people who had been infected by an earlier strain, according to a study released Tuesday.

“We’re facing a dramatic situation here—the health systems of many states in Brazil are already in collapse and others will be in the next few days,” said Eliseu Waldman, an epidemiologist at the University of São Paulo.

“The virus is behaving differently,” said Rosa Lopez, a doctor in the intensive-care unit at Lima’s Guillermo Almenara Irigoyen Hospital. “It’s really aggressive…the situation is very difficult, really terrible.”


The Amazonian strain, P.1, emerged in the Brazilian city of Manaus late last year and quickly caught the attention of Brazilian and international scientists who raced to map its spread. 

The variant’s large number of mutations to the spike protein, which helps the virus penetrate cells, have caused particular concern.

“We’re in the worst moment. I wouldn’t be surprised if P.1 is all over Brazil by now,” said Felipe Naveca, a researcher at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation who has studied the new strain. 

He estimated that Brazil is already home to hundreds of new Covid-19 variants, although P.1. is the most worrying so far, he said.

However, researchers are still at a loss as to why more young people appear to be falling ill and if P.1 is more deadly, or just more contagious.

A study led by Mr. Naveca released last week showed that in some cases the P.1 strain carried a viral load about 10 times higher than the initial versions of the virus that were circulating in Brazil for most of the pandemic. 


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10-MAY-2020 :: #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus
Emerging Markets



.@jairbolsonaro ''Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer''

“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian

Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative and COVID19 has ‟escape velocity‟ in Brazil.

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PRE-PRINT: emerging #SARSCoV2 variant of concern (VOC) P.1 lineage is growing rapidly in Brazil @MRC_Outbreak
Emerging Markets





More transmissible

More likely to evade protective immunity

Enhanced global genomic surveillance of VOC critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness



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CADDE preprint. A SARS-CoV-2 lineage of concern is growing rapidly in Manaus and across Brazil. @CaddeProject
Misc.


Using a combination of genomic and epidemiological data, we characterise the emergence and altered characteristics of this new variant, P.1.

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319,782 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData
Africa


-38.50% % below 520,000 record high from January 2021 

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The reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa has been increasing and is now 0.9 @lrossouw
Africa



It remains below 1 though so the epidemic is not growing yet but the rate of decline of cases is slowing.

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Africa




In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions


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Ethiopia May Scrap Telecom License Sale if Offers Are Too Low @bpolitics
Africa



Ethiopia has a set amount it expects to receive from the part-privatization of the country’s telecommunications industry and could scrap the process if bidders don’t meet the target.

Three independent teams have calculated the value of two new licenses that would compete with state monopoly Ethio Telecom, Eyob Tekalign, the state minister responsible for the privatization process, told reporters. 

That has given the government an amount it’s looking to raise from the sale, he said, without giving figures.

“If we get the value we expect from the bidding process, we will go ahead,” he said. “If not, we will have another look.”

His comments mark the first time an Ethiopian politician has publicly cast doubt over the much-anticipated liberalization of the telecom industry, a move that would jeopardize a broader privatization plan announced by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in mid-2018. 

The strategy had a range of goals: to shore up reserves of much-needed foreign exchange, pay down state debt, improve telecom service and create jobs.

International telecom operators have long coveted a foothold in Ethiopia, which has a population of more than 100 million and is seen as one of the world’s last major untapped markets. 

Interested parties include Vodafone Group Plc and its two African partners, Vodacom Group Ltd. and Safaricom Ltd., as well as MTN Group Ltd. and Orange SA. 

Alongside the two new licenses, a minority stake in Ethio Telecom is also up for sale.

The government had looked to wrap up the process by early 2020, but regulatory complexities, the coronavirus pandemic and the prospect of now-postponed elections delayed proceedings. 

Potential bidders also expressed concern about the exclusion of private tower operators in the process, and the potential for mobile-money licenses.

International tower companies won’t be allowed to take part, Eyob confirmed this week, saying wireless operators can lease existing state-owned masts for the time being.

“We shouldn’t have infrastructure that we have spent billions on going to waste,” he said.

Eyob also sought to address concerns that Ethio Telecom would be given preferential treatment in the newly part-privatized industry, after reports in local media that only the incumbent would be allowed to offer mobile-money services. 

The ability to offer payments through phones is seen as crucial to bidders, given its importance as a revenue stream in parts of Africa with limited banking infrastructure.

The government and regulator would “provide an equal playing field,” Eyob said, without being specific. 

That said, Ethiopia’s current laws don’t allow for foreign companies to participate in the financial sector, which would include mobile money.

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Elephants or avocados: a Kenyan dilemma @Reuters
Africa



KIMANA, Kenya, March 3 (Reuters) - The majestic sight of elephants roaming beneath Mount Kilimanjaro has long lured throngs of wildlife-lovers to Amboseli National Park on Kenya’s border with Tanzania.

Yet the free movement of some 2,000 Amboseli elephants, along with two dozen other wildlife species plus cows owned by local Maasai people, may be under threat - from avocados.

Kenyan agricultural company KiliAvo Fresh Ltd, which has farms near Amboseli on nearly 175 acres of land, is building nurseries and preparing to grow the fruit, whose popularity is growing worldwide due to its high nutritional value.

Conservationists are aghast.

They say the plans and an electric fence on the farm will block the crucial Kimana Wildlife Corridor where elephants move between Amboseli, the Tsavo and Chyulu Hills parks, and strangle one of the region’s most beloved and important safari parks.

In a dispute illustrating the global tussle for shrinking resources from Africa to the Amazon, KiliAvo said it obtained the land legally then received government approval in mid-2020 to begin work after presenting an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).

“Local people here all know the project and they are happy because it’s another source of employment and of making their land have value,” KiliAvo shareholder and farm manager Jeremiah Salaash told Reuters.

However, the National Environment Management Agency ordered work halted last September and said it wanted to revoke the EIA. 

KiliAvo has challenged that in Kenya’s environmental tribunal, where the case is pending, according to CM Advocates LLP, the law firm representing them.

The agency’s acting director general Mamo Mamo told Reuters it initially approved the EIA because of the project’s endorsement by the Amboseli Ecosystem Trust, a coalition that includes community groups and government representatives, but changed its position when the Trust withdrew approval.

FRUIT EXPORTS V TOURIST CASH

With ideal conditions for growing the fruit, Kenya’s avocado export revenues surged 33% to 14 billion Kenyan shillings (about $127 million) in the year to October 2020, government data shows.

As impressive as that growth rate is, such money pales in comparison to tourism, which raked in $1.6 billion in 2019. 

Squeezing the elephants could hit their population, conservationists say, harming a national heritage and also prejudicing the tourism trade so many people depend on.

“We can’t just say to the elephants: ‘Would you mind not going that way because we have decided that we are going to do stuff here?’” said Vicki Fishlock, a scientist working for the Amboseli Elephant Trust group.

“Blockage of the corridor would surely kill the sanctuary as it depends on the animals migrating from Amboseli,” added Samuel Kaanki, who chairs an association of 342 Maasai owning 20,500 acres where elephants browse, breed and migrate.

He said the elephants, if blocked by farms like KiliAvo’s or others, would seek alternative routes: “This would ... result in massive human-wildlife conflicts.”

KiliAvo’s lawyers said the farm was actually 17 km (11 miles) away from Amboseli in an area designated for farming. 

Further, the company had employed 300 local residents, provided training and technology, proposed improving fresh water facilities and helped renovate a school, CM Advocates LLP said.

“Our Client continues to be the victim of constant and relentless harassment and mischaracterization of their project for ulterior motives,” it said in an email to Reuters. “Our Client is actually a victim of witch-hunt and opportunism.”

Another conservation group, Big Life Foundation, has footage from October of four gazelles apparently stuck on one side of the fence, trying to get through. It also said the fence was damaged at least three times last month by elephants.

“If they are trapped in one place, populations will collapse,” said Ernest Lenkoina, human-elephant conflict mitigation project manager at Big Life. 

“In the end, both the Maasai way of life here and the sight of elephants browsing beneath Mount Kilimanjaro could be gone forever.”

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Zero-rating of cash transfers below KShs 1,000 led to a significant increase in #mobilemoney usage by 114% in 2020. @FSDKe
Africa


Between April & September, the number of mobile money accounts increased by more than 6% or 3.6 million new accounts

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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