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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 22nd of April 2021
 
Afternoon
Africa


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Robert Frank Children with Sparklers in Provincetown Massachusetts, 1958 @deryainciderya 04-JAN-2021 What Will Happen In 2021
Misc.


"Time is a flat circle. Everything we have done or will do we will do over and over and over again- forever."

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There was a Door to which I found no KEY: Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam @AsiyaMiya
Misc.




There was a Door to which I found no KEY:

There was a Veil past which I could not see:

Some little Talk awhile of ME and THEE

There seem’d–and then no more of THEE and ME.



Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam (trans. E. Fitzgerald)

Paul Strand, Gateway, Hidalgo (1933)




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Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19
Law & Politics



Controlling the COVID19 Narrative, suppressing the Enquiry, parlaying the situation into one of singular advantage marks a singular moment 

and  Xi Jinping has exhibited Chinese dominance over multiple theatres from the Home Front, the International Media Domain, the ‘’Scientific’’ domain over which he has achieved complete ownership and where any dissenting view is characterized as a ‘’conspiracy theory’’

It remains a remarkable achievement.

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Globally, new COVID-19 cases increased for eighth consecutive week, with more than 5.2 million new cases reported in last week – surpassing the previous peak in early January 2021 @WHO
Misc.




Globally, new COVID-19 cases increased for the eighth consecutive week, with more than 5.2 million new cases reported in the last week – surpassing the previous peak in early January 2021 (Figure 1). 

The number of new deaths increased for the fifth consecutive week, an 8% increase as compared to the previous with over 83 000 new deaths reported.

Last week the reported cumulative COVID-19 death toll surpassed 3 million lives; the pace of deaths is accelerating, it took nine months to reach 1 million deaths, another four to surpass 2 million, and just three to reach 3 million deaths.


The countries reporting the highest number of new cases represent four of the six WHO regions:
India (1 429 304 new cases; 64% increase)
United States of America (477 778 new cases; 2% increase)
Brazil (459 281 new cases; 1% decrease)
Turkey (414 312 new cases; 17% increase),
France (233 275 new cases; 12% decrease)



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28-MAR-2021 :: We are once again entering an exponential escape velocity Phase #COVID19
Misc.






The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved though all the virologists who have metastasized into vaccinologists will have you believe its all sunlit uplands from here. 

Glorious sunrise at the Borana conservancy @nickdimbleby @JamboMagazine




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‘It is much worse this time’: India’s devastating second wave @FT @b_parkyn @jyots43 @SJFindlay @AnnaSophieGross
Misc.



Every night funeral pyres blaze on the banks of the Ganges, a grim symbol of the ferocious Covid-19 wave sparking a health crisis and human tragedy in India that is far surpassing anything seen last year.

Patients are dying while their families search in vain for hospital beds. Supplies of oxygen and medicines are running low, leading to robberies of drugs from hospitals. 

Crematoriums and burial grounds cannot cope with the sheer number of corpses.

The devastation has sparked outrage at the lack of preparation among officials who believed that the worst of the pandemic was over. 

Only two months ago, India was revelling in its success of reining in the spread of the virus. Now it is reporting about 294,000 infections and 2,000 deaths a day.

Narendra Modi, prime minister, and his Bharatiya Janata party have been accused of prioritising domestic politics over public health by holding mass political rallies with thousands of people and allowing the Kumbh Mela, a vast religious festival attended by millions, to take place during the second wave.



With a new variant suspected of stoking the surge, experts fear that India is on the same trajectory as Brazil, where a more contagious strain of the virus has hammered the country’s healthcare system and economy.

“Health systems weren’t better prepared for it this time around. Many people in the administration across the country did not expect that there would be a ‘this time around’,” said K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India, a charity. 

“It was somehow presumed that we had passed the pandemic.”

While India’s fatality rate remains relatively low, other metrics betray a deepening crisis. 

Both the number of new cases and the percentage of positive tests are climbing at the fastest rate in the world, with the latter jumping from 3 per cent last month to 16 per cent.

In the capital, Delhi, which at about 25,000 is recording more new daily infections than any Indian city, the number of cases is doubling every five days.


The sick are overwhelming hospitals in many parts of the country. 

The rate of ICU patients in Nagpur at 353 per million is higher than it was anywhere in Europe during the pandemic. Mumbai, the financial capital, has 194 ICU patients per million.

To meet surging demand, authorities have set up emergency coronavirus hospitals in banquet halls, train stations and hotels. 

India has taken emergency measures to secure oxygen supplies, boost production of drugs such as remdesivir and fast-track vaccine approvals. 

It has frozen vaccine exports, too, a decision that will have profound consequences for the developing world that is depending on Indian manufacturing for its jabs.

A Financial Times analysis also points to under-reporting of deaths. 

Local news reports for seven districts across the states of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar show that while at least 1,833 people are known to have died of Covid-19 in recent days, based mainly on cremations, only 228 have been officially reported. 

In the Jamnagar district in Gujarat, 100 people died of Covid-19 but only one Covid death was reported.



The situation in Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh, a state of 200m that is among India’s poorest, highlights how health infrastructure has been pushed to breaking point. 

Local media reported that at King George’s Medical University, there was a queue of 50 people per hospital bed.

When Shivi Shah’s brother tested positive for Covid-19, she moved her parents into her house in Lucknow.

But it was too late for the couple, both in their 60s. After three days, her father developed blurry vision. The ambulance that arrived 45 minutes later was not fitted with medical equipment to treat him. He died last week on the way to the hospital.

They returned home after struggling to find a place to cremate his body, only for her mother to die in her sleep hours later. 

“We could have saved our father if we could get a proper ambulance,” said Shah, a 40-year-old school teacher, who along with her son is now awaiting Covid-19 test results after developing fevers. “The situation is quite serious.”

“None of us suffered the death and devastation that we are seeing now. It is much worse this time than last year,” said Seema Shukla, a nurse at the government-run Sanjay Gandhi Post-Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences in Lucknow. 

“The condition is so horrible that so many people are dying on the street, in their houses, before they can see a doctor or even have a test.


“From early morning to midnight my phone keeps ringing. Desperate relatives and friends are calling for help: ‘Please help me find a ventilator, bed, a nurse, oxygen cylinder, medicine.’”

For the Shrivastava family, getting tested and treated turned into a 900-mile odyssey. 

After his wife tested positive for Covid-19, the son, an IT professional, sent his 72-year-old father and 68-year-old mother back to their home in Deoria, in the east of the state.

After they too fell ill, they had to travel to another city, Gorakhpur, and three centres before they could be tested. 

They then drove some 400 miles to a suburb of Delhi before finding hospital beds for both parents. The son, meanwhile, remains stuck in Lucknow awaiting his own Covid test report.

“These are the trials and tribulations of those of us who can afford private healthcare,” one family member said. 

“I can only imagine what’s happening to those who cannot.” The family did not want to be fully identified while their parents remained ill.

Officials are alarmed about the suspected role of new variants in driving the latest wave, particularly the B.1.617 strain first detected in India last month

Scientists are still trying to understand the variant, which has spread internationally, including to the UK, but some believe it is more infectious and vaccine evasive.


Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, the research organisation, said the “sheer number of cases” in India pointed to a very sombre picture but “we don’t know yet whether it’s because of this variant”.

“You have to look at these things without panicking,” he said, adding that there was not yet sufficient evidence to make B.1.617 a variant of concern like those first discovered in South Africa or Brazil.

Experts also blame complacency for India’s surge, both among those who rushed back to shopping centres and weddings, and the country’s leaders, including Modi, who have sparked outrage for their electioneering during the second wave.

Yogi Adityanath, the BJP chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, was a star campaigner in the elections before testing positive for Covid-19 last week. Cases in West Bengal, where many election rallies were held, have jumped.

Amit Shah, India’s home minister, told the Indian Express that Modi and the government were “ready, fighting against [the virus] on every front . . . I am confident that we will have a victory over this”.

But Vineeta Bal, of the National Institute of Immunology, said the roots of the crisis ran much deeper, exposing years of neglect of public health infrastructure. India’s spending on healthcare has long lagged behind global peers.

“This is my major problem with not just the current government but the government healthcare system of the past 50 years,” she said. 

“That’s not going to be solvable in one year when there’s a crisis. This is a steady neglect of many, many years.”

Santosh Kumar, the son of a BJP leader in Lucknow, has been isolating at home with his family, all four of whom have Covid.

“The entire system has broken down,” he said. “Every other person in the administration here is quarantining. People are finding out from each other what medication to take and doing what they can.”





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Another update on the pandemic in India. @MaxCRoser
Misc.



Confirmed cases (left) have risen quickly to now almost 300,000 per day.

The test positivity (right) rate also increased very rapidly.

This suggests that the large majority of cases is missed and that the true spread is faster still.

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The IHME estimates the true number of cases and this is how their estimates compare with the reported number of cases in India. @MaxCRoser
Misc.


One crucial question is by how much confirmed cases differ from the actual true number of cases. The IHME estimates the true number of cases and this is how their estimates compare with the reported number of cases in India.

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If applied nationally, that would mean that instead of 1,700 deaths per day, India is currently seeing 17,000. @jburnmurdoch
Misc.


And as more reports come in, that undercounting estimate has been rising, so the true toll may be higher still.

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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Law & Politics






Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”




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But, we have to assume that whatever is circulating in Delhi is either extremely transmissible or fairly easily able to infect people who have previously been infected. In fact, with R ~ 2 @muradbanaji
Misc.





But, we have to assume that whatever is circulating in Delhi is either extremely transmissible or fairly easily able to infect people who have previously been infected. In fact, with R ~ 2, it's hard to believe increased transmissibility is enough to explain the surge.

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The currency has plunged about 2.4% against the dollar this month, making it Asia’s worst-performer.
Asia







The latest wave of coronavirus infections is also bad for India’s sovereign rating. The country has the lowest investment-grade score with a negative outlook at Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings

“We expect a repeat of 2020’s sudden crash in economic activity in the coming months,” said Timothy Wee Lee Tan and Jason Lee, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. 

“With a downgraded GDP growth outlook for FY22, India’s debt burden will be higher than the current IMF forecast, implying an elevated risk of ratings falling into speculative grade.”






Conclusions 

My Target is 80.00. 


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2037

Dollar Index 91.08

Japan Yen 107.97

Swiss Franc 0.9149

Pound 1.39115

Aussie 0.7751

India Rupee 74.97

South Korea Won 1116.87

Brazil Real 5.5695

Egypt Pound 15.6998

South Africa Rand 14.2613



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$GOLD Big Picture View: Its been a nice bounce, but zooming out reveals this move is likely young This targets $1850 then $2200 @AdamMancini4 1790.50
Africa




1) Gold held its core uptrend line from 2019 on March 30

2) Its been building a clean bull flag for 7 months

3) This targets $1850 then $2200, but 1700 must hold now

Details below





28-MAR-2021 ::  GOLD HAS COMPLETED ITS CONSOLIDATION AND IS HEADED BACK TO ATHS



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Excellent follow through in $GOLD and en route to my 1820/1850 first targets. @AdamMancini4
Commodities


Also important to note: We collapsed in March was because Gold lost the major low from November at 1765. We've now recaptured it, making March's selloff a fake breakdown. Strong bottoming pattern

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Erdogan says they can still use FX reserves to defend the lira, so not learning anything from the $128bn reserve loss. @tashecon
Emerging Markets



Agbal got it, the policy failed + threatened the very stability of the entire financial system as net reserves are negative more than $60bn




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In 1998, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told the House of Commons: “There is no way in which one can buck the market.”
World Of Finance





Erdogan remains a limit short trading position.

He said, “Don’t get high on your ambitions. You won’t be able make money on the back of this nation. You won’t be able to make this nation kneel.” 

And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’ [In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]



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#Ethiopia update @MoradNews
Africa



- Newly appointed mayor of Wukro town, east Tigray, killed

- Velocity Textile Factory in Mekelle looted, destroyed

- Ethio Mi-35 combat helicopter shot down in Tigray

- 50 ppl killed in clashes between #Amhara & #Oromo 

- Artillery shelling hit villages near Adet

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My two cents on @SuluhuSamia 1st month in office & comparisons with @MagufuliJP Thread: @ngisongoya
Africa



1.There're differences btwn Mama & JPM. eg. her formation of a task force on covid-19, new appointments & demotion of key figures eg Bashiru from the previous admin speak to those differences

2. She does seem to care about how Tanzania is perceived. Her unbanning of online* media, her intent on rebuilding regional and international alliances & and just a stronger recognition that despite our God-endowed natural resources we cannot go alone.

3. She understands the importance of giving some breathing space – allowing "controlled criticism” from the opposition and the wider public.   Arguably she is a better “politician” of the two.

4. She understands the importance of retaining some sense of legitimacy both domestically and internationally.  Some veneer of impartiality, rule of law & separation of power between the judiciary, parliament and the executive.

5.But she’s careful not to be seen as undoing JPM legacy, however defined. She recognises that not only JPM didn’t welcome criticism & arguably he retains a strong following within CCM, but the wider culture in Tanzania doesn’t allow for critical treatment of predecessors’ legacy

6. Moving forward. Comparisons with JPM are inevitable and understandable- contextualisation allows for fuller understanding and appreciation of what Mama is doing

7. That said, we cannot be too rigid about it. Viewing everything Mama does through the lenses of the previous administration runs the risk of committing an error of expectation

We put our expectations too high – and undeliverable leading to disappointments, or too low that we applaud everything she does as ‘revolutionary’ – risking “at least she’s better than JPM” narrative.

8. My prediction. It’s highly unlikely that she will allow for any substantial changes that are going to level the playing field aka risk her party’s dominance. But she will do enough to ‘convince’ the easily convinced ones.

She may be soft-spoken by nature, but she was born, bred and marinated in the CCM machinery, hence unlikely to make a significant departure. 

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Chad Leader’s Son Takes Power as U.S. Urges Legal Transition @bpolitics
Africa



The son of Chadian President Idriss Deby took control of the oil-producing nation after the death of his father, a key ally of western efforts to quell Islamist insurgencies, as the U.S. urged a lawful transition of power.

General Mahamat Idriss Deby will head a 15-member military council that will lead the former French colony for the next 18 months, army spokesman General Azem Bermandoa Agouna said on state television. 

The announcement circumvents the central African nation’s constitution, which requires elections to be held within 90 days in the event the president’s post becomes vacant.

“We support a peaceful transition of power in accordance with the Chadian constitution,” U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement.

Chad is one of the main contributors of troops to U.S. and French-backed efforts to restore stability to West Africa’s Sahel region, where Islamist militants have been carrying out an increasing number of attacks. 

Deby’s death could trigger domestic unrest, and raises the risk of the government repatriating forces fighting the insurgents, which in turn could delay plans by France to withdraw its soldiers from the conflict.


Idriss Deby died Tuesday of injuries sustained in a battle against rebels, Agouna said. His death at the age of 68 came shortly after he secured a sixth term as president in disputed elections that were preceded by a crackdown on anti-government protests. 

The credibility of the vote was called into question after the Supreme Court barred seven opposition candidates from running and three others later quit the race.


Claims over Chadian debt traded on the secondary market fell to about 40 cents on the dollar on Tuesday, from about 60 cents before, said a person familiar with the matter. 

The decline reflects concern of increased instability in the wake of Deby’s death that could hamper oil production and impair negotiations with creditors about restructuring the nation’s debt.

Chad last year became the first nation to request relief under the Group of 20 common framework, which aims to gather Chinese and private lenders into a global debt-relief push

Its publicly guaranteed loans stood at about $2.8 billion at the end of 2019, with commercial credit from commodity trader Glencore Plc accounting for 39% of that amount, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Chad pumps about 127,000 barrels of oil a day, making it the seventh-biggest producer in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 

It’s ranked as the world’s third-least developed by the United Nations Development Program and two-thirds of the population in N’Djamena, the capital, aren’t connected to the power grid.

Deby became president of the former French colony in February 1991 after leading a rebellion against autocratic leader Hissene Habre. 

A group of Libya-based rebels, known as FACT, the French acronym for the Front for Change and Concord in Chad, and largely comprised of army dissidents, has been fighting to overthrow Deby’s administration since 2016.

On April 16, two FACT convoys advanced toward the capital. They clashed with government forces the following day, according to state-run broadcaster Tele Tchad, leading to the deaths of more than 300 rebels and five soldiers.

“The Marshal of Chad, Idriss Deby Itno, did as he does whenever the state is seriously threatened, he took charge during the heroic fight waged against the terrorist hordes from Libya,” the military council said

“He was injured in the clashes and his soul left his body as he was repatriated to N’Djamena.”

The council’s account couldn’t be independently verified, and it was unclear why Deby had gone to the battle front.

FACT leader Mahamat Mahdi Ali told Radio France Internationale Deby was injured at the front and evacuated from the battlefield by helicopter.

“The heavy-shelling indicated Deby was there on the battlefield. So we attacked and he was injured,” Ali said. “He was there at the front, like an army commander. When we saw he was injured we pulled back.”


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Turning To Africa
Africa



We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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#Deby is dead. #Chad’s future is in the balance. Rebels seem very well equipped. Note the blue vehicles bearing the flag of a neighbouring country. Inconclusive but worth examining. @DinoMahtani
Africa



Conclusions

These Folks are well provisioned. The Question is by whom? This is a Question @Emmanuelmacron must be surely asking himself. looks like Putin to me.

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Disaster for Business as Mozambique Gas Boom Turns to Bust @bpolitics
Africa



Mozambican businesses looking to cash in on Africa’s biggest private investment are facing disaster after an attack by Islamic State-linked militants on a town close to Total SE’s $20 billion natural gas export project.

The French oil major has begun terminating business with at least some contractors working at the project site in Palma in northeastern Mozambique, according to letters seen by Bloomberg. Total declined to comment.

Hours after Total announced on March 24 it was returning to work on its Mozambique liquefied-natural gas project stalled since January because of rising insecurity, more than 100 rebels began a raid on Palma. 

Dozens of people died, millions of dollars of property was damaged in the ensuing violence, and the company froze its plans to resume the project.

  , reckons it’s unlikely Total will restart this year. 

The consequences for businesses like his are dire.

“It’s a complete disaster,” Sethy said in an interview last week. “We don’t know what’s going to happen.”

Small and medium-sized local enterprises have already lost $90 million since the attack on Palma, Agostinho Vuma, president of the Confederation of Economic Associations of Mozambique, told reporters in the capital, Maputo, on Tuesday. 

The association is conducting an assessment of how many contracts have been suspended, with at least two known so far, he said.

Gas Windfall

The insurgency that began in the northeast of the country in 2017 has left at least 2,780 people dead, according to the Cabo Ligado website, which tracks the conflict. 

It’s also displaced more than 700,000 people in Cabo Delgado province, and Pemba’s population has more than doubled as people seek safety in the city normally home to more than 200,000.

The Mozambican state had been hoping to reap nearly $100 billion in revenue over 25 years from LNG projects. 

So costly has been the delay to the start of gas production that the International Monetary Fund has had to scale back its forecast for 2021 economic growth to just 2.1%, from 38% it projected in January 2016.

Total’s termination of contracts indicates it won’t restart work on the LNG facility for at least a year, Eurasia Group said in an emailed note Wednesday. 

That will lead to significant delays in natural-gas revenues to the government, according to the New York-based company that monitors political risk for investor clients.

Total in 2019 bought its 26.5% stake in the Mozambique LNG project for $3.9 billion. The previous operator, Anadarko Petroleum Corp., reached a final investment decision the same year. 

Total said the morning before the attack that the project had reached financial close and the first draw-down of the financing deal would take place at the start of this month.

With work now on hold indefinitely, Sethy said some of his tenants have canceled their contracts, including an insurance company that will vacate by the end of the month. 

More will leave as people fear there may be an attack on Pemba itself, he said.

“This was our biggest hope,” said Sethy, who’s also the head of the provincial business council. “That’s why some of us invested everything that we had, and even getting bank loans to invest even more.”

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Sep 2012 The Swahili Coast is a Potential TinderBox
Africa





Then, last week, on the 27th of August, Aboud Rogo Mohammed was shot on the always busy Bamburi Road, not far from Pirates. This proved the spark that ignited a tinderbox

My concern remains that what appear like uncorrelated spikes and paroxysms of violence conflate, become more broad based and amplify.

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31 OCT 16 :: Mozambique from Boom to Bust - A Cautionary Tale
Africa




I said "Mozambique could be the next Qatar." as we stuffed ourselves with wonderfully flavour some tiger prawns.

Then I noticed that Credit Suisse and VTB sold some ‘’Tuna’’ Bonds on behalf of Mozambique. The story around these bonds was opaque.

Ematum’s results pointed to the fleet catching just $450,000 of tuna a year, compared with sales of $18-million forecast at that stage of its life in a 2013 feasibility study circulated by the government.

Further loans were uncovered spanning not only Empresa Moçambicana de Atum (Ematum), but other companies Proindicus and Mozambique Asset Management (MAM). The Total is around $2 billion.

Africa Confidential reported that Chancellor Angela Merkel asked President Nyusi when he met her in Berlin on 19 April 2016, ‘Where is the money?’ and also, ‘Are you in charge?’

If you are mortgaging the future, you need to make sure can first afford the mortgage payments and second that the investments you are making are going to provide a meaningful return on your investment


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@CBKKenya reveals the top 5 remittance sources for Kenya in March 2021: @MwangoCapital
Kenyan Economy




1. United States - 55.9%

2. United Kingdom - 11.2%

3  Saudi Arabia - 4%

4. Canada - 2.9%

5. Australia - 2.9% 

Total remittances for March were up 27.1% year over year to stand at $290.8B.


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.@Bamburicement Bamburi Cement Company Ltd. reports FY 2020 EPS +66.09% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied




Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           38.50

Total Shares Issued:          362959275.00

Market Capitalization:        13,973,932,088

EPS:             2.89

PE:             13.321




Bamburi Cement reports FY 2020 Earnings versus FY 2019

FY Revenue 34.884b versus 36.796b

FY Total Operating Costs [33.127b] versus [35.621b]

FY Operating Profit 1.983b versus 1.117b

FY Finance Costs [net] [0.207b] versus [0.389b]

FY Profit before Tax 1.776b versus 0.728b

FY Profit after Tax 1.129b versus 0.359b

FY Other comprehensive Income 0.790b 

FY EPS 2.89 versus 1,74

FY Cash and Cash Equivalents 6.251b versus 1.334b

FY Dividend 3.00 a share 

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Bamburi Cement Plc - Audited Group Financial Results for the Year Ended 31-Dec-2020. @tradingroomke
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied



Conclusions

Headline Revenue down but clearly strong cost control lifted Profits.

7.79% Dividend Yield.

Not unattractive

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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