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09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters World Of Finance |
On 8th March when the Bears had gotten hold of the US 10 Year, I wrote that I expected the 10 Year to target 1.45% well we got real close on Friday before the market reversed
Ten- year yields initially plunged to a more than two-month low of 1.46%, then reversed to end the day at 1.58%. However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.
Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.
The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! I beg to differ
Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner.
They have fired a lot of bullets and even if there was a meaningful bounce they cannot raise rates.
Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2
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Fast Forward World Of Finance |
However, what I am noticing is a metastatic expansion of Protest
This is a moment of Maximum Danger to the Control Machine
And from London to Washington, from Mumbai to Wuhan, from Beirut to Hong Kong, the Divisionists and Splittists will frame it as a binary choice as one that is Black versus White, China versus US or any other binary iteration You care to mention whereas its much simpler than that.
It is about the Haves and the Have Nots. Its about the moment of Epiphany when the Have Nots appreciate the predicament in which they have been placed and identify with each other rather than a ‘’boogaloo’’ structure that has been placed upon them.
Will they have that moment of Epiphany? Well There certainly has not been a more ‘’conducive’’ moment.
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21 OCT 19 :: The New Economy of Anger Law & Politics |
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions.
The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot.
Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.
Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics,
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
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Reed Hastings: ‘ @netflix is still in challenger status’ @FT World Of Finance |
Reed Hastings is the billionaire founder of Netflix, the crusher of Blockbuster, and the one who turned Hollywood upside down with streaming tech
Netflix launched 1997 a service offering DVD hire by post, aiming to bring internet savvy to the ever-frustrating, damn-the-late-fees world of video rental.
“Covid could have been an internet virus taking down all the routers of the world and our business would be out and restaurants would be in,”
“And instead tragically it is a biological one, so everybody is locked up and we had the greatest growth in the first half of this year that we ever had.”
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SEP-2019 a ‘’conviction’’ Buy at Friday’s closing price of $270.75. $NFLX World Of Finance |
My Mind kept to an Article I read in 2012 ‘’Annals of Technology Streaming Dreams’’ by John Seabrook January 16, 2012.
“People went from broad to narrow,” he said, “and we think they will continue to go that way—spend more and more time in the niches— because now the distribution landscape allows for more narrowness’’
Netflix is not a US business, it is a global business. The Majority of Analysts are in the US and in my opinion, these same Analysts have an international ‘’blind spot’’
Once Investors appreciate that the Story is an international one and not a US one anymore, we will see the price ramp to fresh all-time highs.
I, therefore, am putting out a ‘’conviction’’ Buy on Netflix at Friday’s closing price of $270.75.
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A fiendishly complicated task fending off the centrIfugal forces which are tearing Ethiopia apart [ @PMEthiopia has lost this battle] Africa |
• whether to embark on political negotiations with Tigray and unblock aid to the region in the wake of the federal forces' unilateral ceasefire declared on 28 June;
• how to restructure relations within the federation to address growing protest and violence in the regions;
• persuading Western governments to lift sanctions on Addis Ababa linked to the Tigray war and regaining the confidence of the investors who had flocked to Ethiopia as the second biggest market in Africa after Nigeria.
Much of the resulting financial crisis has been triggered by the Tigray war with Addis pushing back hard against foreign pressure.
Without a change of political strategy, the economic pressures are unlikely to relent.
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Kenya walks recovery tightrope before 2022 elections @AfricanBizMag @__TomCollins Africa |
Amid the possibility of further lockdowns, some observers believe that the IMF’s prediction of 7.6% growth in 2021 and 5.7% in 2022 paints an overly rosy picture.
“I’m astonished with the IMF prediction, but frankly the IMF has been significantly off base in a lot of African countries recently,” says Aly-Khan Satchu, CEO of Nairobi-based investment advisory firm Rich Management.
“I’m hard pressed to see how this economy can rebound meaningfully this year. I think we are going to get a very anaemic rebound, probably half of what the IMF is predicting. A lot of people have lost their jobs, it’s been very tough.”
Satchu says that the international community is keen to support Kenya as much as possible while the rest of the region is in turmoil.
“What the IMF and World Bank have done is given Kenya some breathing space and I think in part that is the geopolitical context for what is happening in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa,” he says.
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.@SafaricomPLC's Entry to the Ethiopian Market: An Explainer via @MwangoCapital N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Global Partnership for Ethiopia (GPE), a consortium that Safaricom is part of, won one of two New Telecommunications Licenses – a 15-year license that comes with the right to apply for a 15-year extension.
The partnership consists of Safaricom (Kenya), Vodafone Group (UK), Vodacom Group (South Africa), CDC Group (UK), Sumitomo Corporation (Japan), and Development Finance Corporation (US-DFC).
Following the award of the license, the consortium paid an $850M (Kshs 91.72B) fee to the Ethiopian Government through the National Bank of Ethiopia.
The company’s shareholding is Safaricom (55.7%), Vodacom (6.2%), Sumitomo Corp. (27.2%), and CDC Group (10.9%).
The license awarded to the consortium does not include a license to operate mobile money, one that would have allowed Safaricom to roll out its jewel M-Pesa in the Ethiopian market.
In the last financial year, M-Pesa’s revenues accounted for 33% (Kshs 82.65B / $765.96m) of service revenue (Kshs 240.84B / $2.23B), and 31% of total revenue (Kshs 264.03B / $2.45B).
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