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Tuesday 27th of July 2021
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19-JUL-2021 :: Mirrors On The Ceiling The Pink champagne on ice Misc. |
Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said "We are all just prisoners here, of our own device"
And in the master's chambers,
They gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives,
But they just can't kill the beast
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax, " said the night man,
"We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! "
And when the Feedback Loop kicks in I expect it to kick big to the downside.
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19-JUL-2021 :: In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. Misc. |
Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.
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January 15, 2011 Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution @csmonitor Law & Politics |
Mr. Ben Ali in a speech on Monday called the riots “terrorist acts” that were the work of “masked gangs” operating for foreign parties.
"We are not afraid, we are not afraid, we are afraid only of God," the crowds chanted on Tuesday in Tunis.
On Thursday, the American secretary of State said the following in Qatar.
“In too many places, in too many ways, the region’s foundations are sinking into the sand,” said Secretary Hillary Clinton.
“Those who cling to the status quo may be able to hold back the full impact of their countries’ problems for a little while, but not forever, If leaders don’t offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum.”
“No presidency for life,” Ben Ali, 74, said in Tunis, pledging not to run after 2014.
By Friday evening he was gone in a puff of smoke. French President Sarkozy would not allow him to land on French soil and it was the Saudi Arabians who accepted the Ben Ali entourage.
The day’s seismic events in Tunisia were described by the broadcaster Abeer Madi al-Halabi as serving “a lesson for countries where presidents and kings have rusted on their thrones.”
Change is never incremental, it tips and surges. Looking at Tunisia and Africa, I see so many similarities.
There is the widest spread between the average age of the rulers and the average age of the ruled. Tunisia is but the first example of the elastic band snapping.
The demographic skew is such that an average of more than 60 percent Africans are under the age of 26.
And keep an eye on food prices. Those are sky high and not coming down and not unlike dry kindling, awaiting a spark.
The Jasmine Revolution feels like the story of Gulliver and the Lilliputians. Gulliver was the state. All powerful. You owned the levers to the state, you owned it all. L'état, c'est moi.
Then the Lilliputians got connected and that connection was the net with which to catch their Gulliver.
John Donne wrote:
"...Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee..."
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19-JUL-2021 :: COVID-19 Misc. |
The Virus remains unresolved. I recall a few months ago every Pharma Co. pronounced how their Vaccine had an efficacy of close enough to 100%.
Today the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections are 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections @GuptaR_lab
Thread
We now further define Delta immune evasion using a panel of 38 monoclonal antibodies, showing significant loss of potency of NTD and RBD targeting antibodies. @GuptaR_lab
Far from ebbing, the virus has gained virulence and you have to be a Naif to believe the Microbe is licked.
554,753 cases yesterday also above accelerating 485,767/day avg (up 28% past 2wks). @jmlukens
We are now approaching the FIFTH peak in COVID cases and deaths in just sixteen months @greg_travis
Certainly, the Vaccine has mitigated Mortality but lets see for how long because in a hyperconnected World just about everyone has to be vaccinated for the World to reach Herd Immunity. Its just not going to happen.
The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population @AdamJKucharski
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1415587170941874178?s=20In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. @AdamJKucharski
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09-MAY-2021 The Lotos-eaters World Of Finance |
The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! I beg to differ
Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.
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19-JUL-2021 :: Now lets turn to Africa. lets look at the Virus first Africa |
"Over the past month, #Africa recorded an additional 1 million cases. This is the shortest time it’s taken so far to add one million cases." Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19 @WHOAFRO
"Comparatively, it took around three months to move from 4 million to 5 million cases." - Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19
“Past next year we will be moving toward endemicity of this virus on our continent and the consequences will be catastrophic,” @JNkengaso
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Turning to Africa Africa |
We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming
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.@CentumPLC reports FY Earnings EPS [0.93] #CentumFY21 N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Par Value: 0.50/-
Closing Price: 17.45
Total Shares Issued: 665441775.00
Market Capitalization: 11,611,958,974
EPS: -0.93
Centum Group reports FY Earnings through March 2021
FY Trading Business [Loss] Profit [529m] versus 25m
FY Financial Services 330m versus 171m
FY Real Estate 875m versus 3.560b
FY Loss from Two Rivers Development group [1.859b] versus [5.958b]
FY Investment and other income 684m versus 13.347b
FY Operating and administrative Costs [715m] versus [1.132b]
FY Finance Costs [629m] versus [1.815b]
FY [loss] Profit from investment Operations [660m] versus 10.400b
FY Total Operating Profit [1.843b] versus 8.198b
FY Impairment provision on Assets [459m] versus [2.752b]
FY [loss] profit before Tax [2.332b] versus 5.446b
FY Tax 964m versus [818m]
FY [loss] Profit for the Year [1.368b] versus 4.628b
FY EPS [0.93] versus 10.25
FY Total comprehensive Income [1.454b] versus 5.430b
NAV Company 62.85 versus 71.29
FY Closing Cash 4.842b versus 7.126b
Centum Board of Directors has recommended the payment of a first and final dividend of KES 0.33 per share @CentumPLC
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