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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 27th of July 2021
 
Morning
Africa


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Imagine you’re a bit of a poker player and you get invited to a home game. @coloradotravis
Misc.


After a few hands, you’re pretty sure the host is dealing from the bottom of the deck to a couple of the players.  Not totally sure - he’s good - but pretty sure.
Changes how you play that game.

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19-JUL-2021 :: Mirrors On The Ceiling The Pink champagne on ice
Misc.



Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said "We are all just prisoners here, of our own device" 

And in the master's chambers,
They gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives,
But they just can't kill the beast
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax, " said the night man,

"We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! "
And when the Feedback Loop kicks in I expect it to kick big to the downside.

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Every time certain assets jam upward, I get lots of messages asking if I’m “salty” or “sad.” @coloradotravis
World Of Finance



No, friend.  I’m not betting many hands here.
And you’ve misread me:  I’m not bearish on flop, or on the cards I got dealt.
I’m bearish on the game.

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09-MAY-2021 :: The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance


"Courage!" he said, and pointed toward the land, "This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon."

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''Most people thought it would come, but no man prepared for it. No man considered it would come like a thief in the night, exactly as it happens in the case of death.”- Alexander Pope @coloradotravis
World Of Finance





“The fate of the South Sea scheme has, much sooner than I expected, verified what you told me.
Most people thought it would come, but no man prepared for it. No man considered it would come like a thief in the night, exactly as it happens in the case of death.”

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19-JUL-2021 :: In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.
Misc.



Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.

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Imprisoned Descendants JULY 23, 2021 ~ SONYA KASSAM
Misc.


“Lunatic” they named the line
Yet it had infinitely more sense
Than their descendants
Who remain imprisoned
By their “sanity“

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Supporters of Tunisian president celebrate government ousting with cheers, fireworks Reuters
Law & Politics





"Today, today, Ennahda ended today," sang young men in the Omrane Superieur district of the capital.
Nearby, as families stood with their children and raised their phones to the record the moment, a man walking with his daughter said "today is our Eid (holiday)".

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19-JUL-2021 :: Take a look at how events are unfolding From Cuba to Colombia, South Africa to Lebanon, and you will note tensions are igniting across the globe.
Law & Politics


T
o assume that contagion stops in country and does not turn viral in a c21st World where the Few control practically everything is another narrative I would prefer to be limit short.

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January 15, 2011 Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution @csmonitor
Law & Politics



Mr. Ben Ali in a speech on Monday called the riots “terrorist acts” that were the work of “masked gangs” operating for foreign parties.
"We are not afraid, we are not afraid, we are afraid only of God," the crowds chanted on Tuesday in Tunis.
On Thursday, the American secretary of State said the following in Qatar.
“In too many places, in too many ways, the region’s foundations are sinking into the sand,” said Secretary Hillary Clinton. 

“Those who cling to the status quo may be able to hold back the full impact of their countries’ problems for a little while, but not forever, If leaders don’t offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum.”
“No presidency for life,” Ben Ali, 74, said in Tunis, pledging not to run after 2014.
By Friday evening he was gone in a puff of smoke. French President Sarkozy would not allow him to land on French soil and it was the Saudi Arabians who accepted the Ben Ali entourage.
The day’s seismic events in Tunisia were described by the broadcaster Abeer Madi al-Halabi as serving “a lesson for countries where presidents and kings have rusted on their thrones.”
Change is never incremental, it tips and surges. Looking at Tunisia and Africa, I see so many similarities. 

There is the widest spread between the average age of the rulers and the average age of the ruled. Tunisia is but the first example of the elastic band snapping. 

The demographic skew is such that an average of more than 60 percent Africans are under the age of 26. 

And keep an eye on food prices. Those are sky high and not coming down and not unlike dry kindling, awaiting a spark.

The Jasmine Revolution feels like the story of Gulliver and the Lilliputians. Gulliver was the state. All powerful. You owned the levers to the state, you owned it all. L'état, c'est moi. 

Then the Lilliputians got connected and that connection was the net with which to catch their Gulliver.
John Donne wrote:
"...Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee..."

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Whoosh go #Tunisia's bond yields. @PaulWallace123
Emerging Markets


They've soared today after the president sacked the prime minister and froze parliament following violent protests over a worsening economy and the government's handling of Covid.

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"Unheard of, a president who carries out a coup d'état!" wonders an expatriate on vacation constitutional coup launched in Tunisia by President Kaies Said @jeune_afrique @Pol_Sec_Analyst
Law & Politics



In terms of the constitutional coup launched in Tunisia by President Kaies Said, best line ive read so far was delivered by  @jeune_afrique
 "Unheard of, a president who carries out a coup d'état!" wonders an expatriate on vacation who struggles to understand the events.

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19-JUL-2021 :: COVID-19
Misc.



The Virus remains unresolved. I recall a few months ago every Pharma Co. pronounced how their Vaccine had an efficacy of close enough to 100%. 

Today the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections are 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections @GuptaR_lab
Thread
We now further define Delta immune evasion using a panel of 38 monoclonal antibodies, showing significant loss of potency of NTD and RBD targeting antibodies. @GuptaR_lab 


Far from ebbing, the virus has gained virulence and you have to be a Naif to believe the Microbe is licked.
554,753 cases yesterday also above accelerating 485,767/day avg (up 28% past 2wks). @jmlukens 


We are now approaching the FIFTH peak in COVID cases and deaths in just sixteen months @greg_travis 


Certainly, the Vaccine has mitigated Mortality but lets see for how long because in a hyperconnected World just about everyone has to be vaccinated for the World to reach Herd Immunity. Its just not going to happen.

The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population @AdamJKucharski 

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1415587170941874178?s=20
In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/
If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. @AdamJKucharski 

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1415587175794679810?s=20
So, my Point is this, our Attention span is short and Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.


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If the US Rt has now peaked out at close to 1.5, it implies the upcoming peak in cases will be 4-6 weeks from now. @_stah
Misc.




Rt fall times are slower than rise times. Perhaps four times our current death rate 2-2.5 months from now. Another 100k dead by Halloween.


"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
https://bit.ly/3bcXcec

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Both coefficients are relevant, but the correlation coefficient – the measure of the link – is especially critical when we’re dealing with exponential growth @ProfColinDavis
Misc.


Both coefficients are relevant, but the correlation coefficient – the measure of the link – is especially critical when we’re dealing with exponential growth (it's frustrating to be so far into the pandemic and still having to explain exponential growth, but there we are).

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It was argued, perhaps out of ignorance, that C19 vaccines would stop the infection, disease and transmission processes dead in their tracks. This was always a fantasy. @DonaldWelsh16
Misc.



But perhaps more disturbing was the deliberate misrepresentation of their utlility. It was argued, perhaps out of ignorance, that C19 vaccines would stop the infection, disease and transmission processes dead in their tracks. This was always a fantasy.

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US down 6 million full-time jobs since 2019? @markduggan_econ @Convertbond
World Of Finance


And actually lost more in June, pandemic is replacing higher-paying full-time jobs with lower quality employment? See large impact on FOMC, future tax receipts.

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09-MAY-2021 The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance




The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM!  I beg to differ

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.




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19-JUL-2021 :: limit long the US Ultra Bond because I recall Japan and the words of that iconic Eagles song ''Hotel California''
World Of Finance



Mirrors On The Ceiling The Pink champagne on ice



However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now. 09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters 



Conclusions

I believe we are now headed to < than 1%


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1782
Dollar Index 92.775
Japan Yen 110.04
Swiss Franc 0.9168
Pound 1.3788
Aussie 0.7341
India Rupee 74.4855
South Korea Won 1154.35
Brazil Real 5.1767
Egypt Pound 15.6903
South Africa Rand 14.92

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The new high tech, millenial, crypto, avocado economy exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential and even non-linear characteristics not unlike Ebola.
World Currencies


“The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire”- Malcolm Gladwell

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CFTC positioning data for FX futures. Foreigners are the most long BRL since early 2018. @RobinBrooksIIF
Emerging Markets



Conclusions

The Brazil Real is a very undervalued currency in my opinion especially in te context of independent monetary policy operations 

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19-JUL-2021 :: Now lets turn to Africa. lets look at the Virus first
Africa



"Over the past month, #Africa recorded an additional 1 million cases. This is the shortest time it’s taken so far to add one million cases." Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19 @WHOAFRO
"Comparatively, it took around three months to move from 4 million to 5 million cases." - Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19
“Past next year we will be moving toward endemicity of this virus on our continent and the consequences will be catastrophic,” ⁦@JNkengaso

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Dr @MoetiTshidi warns “Africa’s third wave is not over.” @WHOAFRO
Africa


#COVID19 new case numbers in #Africa fell by 1.7% in the week ending 18 July. Yet removing data from South Africa, which accounts for 37% of cases, reveals a  steep nine-week surge.

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“Test positivity rate is showing a decline of around 11-percent over the past week which is good. I think this decline in the test positivity rate confirms that the country has surpassed the peak of the third wave.” @SABCNews @rid1tweets
Africa



“Test positivity rate is showing a decline of around 11-percent over the past week which is good. I think this decline in the test positivity rate confirms that the country has surpassed the peak of the third wave. It is still high at an average of 26,2 percent, meaning that 1-in every 4 tests conducted is yielding a positive result so we do need to remain vigilant and not become complacent at this stage.”

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Turning to Africa
Africa


We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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19-JUL-2021 His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence.
Africa


In the Horn of Africa the Prime Minister of Ethiopia who cloaked his messianic zeal in the language of Mandela 1994 is unlikely to last more than twelve months.
His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence.
The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.
If I could I would be limit short the Ethiopian Birr [It trades at 60 to the $ on the black market]

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November 8, 2020 @PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa




PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province

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Sadly though, they are in a farcical recruiting drive. @reda_getachew
Africa


Ill trained/equipped peasants are being sent to Afar & Amhara as cannon fodders. We will continue to send them back home.

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"Unless there is a dramatic change soon, Ethiopia could be on a path to state failure," said Mr @Dibjir @BBCWorld
Africa


"Five years ago the Ethiopian army was the most powerful in the region. The fact it couldn't secure Tigray shows how the situation has deteriorated."

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Ghana Treasury Bills; @moneyinafrica
Africa


Latest yields from t-bills issued today have gone up slightly, remain in double digits and with the cedi more stable, currency adjusted returns remain above 9%.

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Uganda Treasury Bill Yields @moneyinafrica
Africa


Sharp rise in 91 T-bill for Uganda, driven by uncertainty of current lockdown. Longer term t-bills remain steady. 

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.@CentumPLC reports FY Earnings EPS [0.93] #CentumFY21
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           17.45
Total Shares Issued:          665441775.00
Market Capitalization:        11,611,958,974
EPS:            -0.93


Centum Group reports FY Earnings through March 2021

FY Trading Business [Loss] Profit [529m] versus 25m

FY Financial Services 330m versus 171m

FY Real Estate 875m versus 3.560b

FY Loss from Two Rivers Development group [1.859b] versus [5.958b]

FY Investment and other income 684m versus 13.347b

FY Operating and administrative Costs [715m] versus [1.132b]

FY Finance Costs [629m] versus [1.815b]

FY [loss] Profit from investment Operations [660m] versus 10.400b

FY Total Operating Profit [1.843b] versus 8.198b

FY Impairment provision on Assets [459m] versus [2.752b]

FY [loss] profit before Tax [2.332b] versus 5.446b

FY Tax 964m versus [818m]

FY [loss] Profit for the Year [1.368b] versus 4.628b

FY EPS [0.93] versus 10.25 

FY Total comprehensive Income [1.454b] versus 5.430b

NAV Company 62.85 versus 71.29

FY Closing Cash 4.842b versus 7.126b 

Centum Board of Directors has recommended the payment of a first and final dividend of KES 0.33 per share @CentumPLC

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@CentumPLC operating portfolio companies @CentumPLC
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment



Conclusions

They have pared debt at the Company Level.

Clearly Two Rivers was a drag and they are restructuring that balance sheet.

I suspect they will have to put more cash to work into their Portfolio companies 

Its a significant Real estate Play in point of fact 

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Kenya Treasury Bills; @moneyinafrica
Kenyan Economy


Latest yields from t-bills issued today have continued to drop.
Investor appetite much stronger for the short-term t-bill.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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