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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 28th of July 2021

19-JUL-2021 :: In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.

Lorenz wrote:
''The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.

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'In too many places, in too many ways, the region’s foundations are sinking into the sand,' said Secretary Hillary Clinton.
Law & Politics

“Those who cling to the status quo may be able to hold back the full impact of their countries’ problems for a little while, but not forever, If leaders don’t offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum.”

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19-JUL-2021 :: Take a look at how events are unfolding From Cuba to Colombia, South Africa to Lebanon, and you will note tensions are igniting across the globe.
Law & Politics

o assume that contagion stops in country and does not turn viral in a c21st World where the Few control practically everything is another narrative I would prefer to be limit short.

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Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the U.S. @DeputySecState Wendy Sherman had a frank and open discussion about a range of issues @shen_shiwei
Law & Politics

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the U.S. @DeputySecState Wendy Sherman had a frank and open discussion about a range of issues, demonstrating the importance of maintaining open lines of communication btw #China and the #US.

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Last week, global #COVID19 cases INCREASED by ~6.5% & deaths INCREASED by ~20.6% Think this pandemic is over? Think again. @kerkhove

Last week >69,000 people died. This is an absolute travesty because we can prevent deaths.

19-JUL-2021 :: COVID-19

The Virus remains unresolved. I recall a few months ago every Pharma Co. pronounced how their Vaccine had an efficacy of close enough to 100%. 

Today the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections are 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections @GuptaR_lab
We now further define Delta immune evasion using a panel of 38 monoclonal antibodies, showing significant loss of potency of NTD and RBD targeting antibodies. @GuptaR_lab 

Far from ebbing, the virus has gained virulence and you have to be a Naif to believe the Microbe is licked.
554,753 cases yesterday also above accelerating 485,767/day avg (up 28% past 2wks). @jmlukens 

We are now approaching the FIFTH peak in COVID cases and deaths in just sixteen months @greg_travis 

The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved #COVID19

We emerged from the below captioned 6 weeks ago. 

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Nations w/ record #COVID19 daily cases past week @jmlukens

Iran record 31,814 new cases yesterday above 24,935/day avg up 41% past 2wks.
Vietnam 8,688 record cases past week above 6,595 avg up 307% past 2wks.
Mexico 32,244 record cases past week above 12,856/day avg up 74% past 2wks.

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Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.

―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions

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It was argued, perhaps out of ignorance, that C19 vaccines would stop the infection, disease and transmission processes dead in their tracks. This was always a fantasy. @DonaldWelsh16

But perhaps more disturbing was the deliberate misrepresentation of their utlility. It was argued, perhaps out of ignorance, that C19 vaccines would stop the infection, disease and transmission processes dead in their tracks. This was always a fantasy.

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A last word of caution to all those pretending the Covid-19 pandemic is toning down @GVDBossche

Erosion, therefore, of natural Ab-based, variant-nonspecific immunity promotes breeding and transmission of more infectious viral variants in the non-vaccinated part of the population. 

On the other hand, mass vaccination promotes natural selection of increasingly vaccine immunity (VI)-escaping variants in the vaccinated part of the population. 

Taken together, mass vaccination conducted on a background of high infectivity rates enables more infectious, increasingly VI-escaping variants to expand in prevalence. 

This evolution inevitably results in inclining morbidity rates in both, the non-vaccinated and vaccinated population and precipitates the emergence of circulating viral variants that will eventually fully resist vaccine-mediated immunity (VMI). 

This is why mass vaccination campaigns should not be conducted during a pandemic of a highly mutable virus, let alone during a pandemic of more infectious variants (unless transmission-blocking vaccines are used!). 
Continued mass vaccination will only lead to a further increase in morbidity and hospitalization rates, which will subsequently culminate in a huge case fatality wave when expansion of more infectious, vaccine-resistant variants will explode.  
I herewith reiterate that I will continue to distance myself from those who pretend the pandemic is over or at least toning down as a result of growing herd immunity (HI)

There can be no doubt that, at this stage, the pandemic is gearing up for breeding vaccine-resistant ‘supervariants’, a phenomenon that is at risk of fueling an even larger wave of morbidity, hospitalization and, unfortunately, also death, not at least in the vaccinated part of the population. 

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Fig 1: More infectious immune escape variants outcompete the original virus lineage (Wuhan strain) for binding to Ace-2 entry receptor. @GVDBossche

Antigen (Ag)-specific IgG antibodies (Abs) outcompete natural, poly-reactive (multi Ag-specific) IgM Abs for binding to Sars-CoV-2. Ace-2 outcompetes Ag-specific but not natural, polyreactive Abs for binding to more infectious variants.  

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19-JUL-2021 :: COVID-19

Certainly, the Vaccine has mitigated Mortality but lets see for how long because in a hyperconnected World just about everyone has to be vaccinated for the World to reach Herd Immunity. Its just not going to happen.

The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population @AdamJKucharski 

In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/
If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. @AdamJKucharski 

So, my Point is this, our Attention span is short and Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.

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The global economy is projected to grow 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022.The 2021 global forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 #WEO @IMFNews
World Of Finance

Prospects for emerging market and developing economies have been marked down for 2021, especially for Emerging Asia. By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies is revised up. 

These revisions reflect pandemic developments and changes in policy support. 

The 0.5 percentage-point upgrade for 2022 derives largely from the forecast upgrade for advanced economies, particularly the United States, reflecting the anticipated legislation of additional fiscal support in the second half of 2021 and improved health metrics more broadly across the group.

Elevated inflation is also expected in some emerging market and developing economies, related in part to high food prices.

Risks around the global baseline are to the downside. 

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09-MAY-2021 The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM!  I beg to differ

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.

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April 19, 2020 A idealizacao do sucesso economico Chines sempre foi uma grande farsa @TaviCosta
World Of Finance

1/12 The idealization of Chinese economic success has always been a big scam. Throughout history we have had several similar examples of communist countries that have reached unsustainable levels of internal and external debt and have suffered marked collapses.
2/12 Para elaborar nessa proposição, considere a seguinte reflexão. De acordo com o PIB publicado pelo governo chinês, a China foi responsável por mais de 60% do crescimento econômico global desde 2008.
2/12 To elaborate on this proposition, consider the following reflection. According to GDP published by the Chinese government, China has accounted for more than 60% of global economic growth since 2008.
3/12 Com isso, ela passou a ser, incomparavelmente, a maior importadora de commodities no mundo. Se caso o seu crescimento de PIB tivesse sido tão expressivo, como justificaríamos a queda geral de preços de commodities no mundo?
3/12 As a result, it has become, by far, the largest importer of commodities in the world. If your GDP growth had been so expressive, how would we justify the general drop in commodity prices in the world?
4/12 Curiosamente, esse período marcou uma das piores décadas para esse mercado na história. É incontestável a contradição entre esses números, presumivelmente mais apurados, e os números “criados” pelo próprio governo comunista Chinês.
4/12 Interestingly, this period marked one of the worst decades for this market in history. The contradiction between these numbers, presumably more accurate, and the numbers “created” by the Chinese communist government is undeniable.

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19-JUL-2021 :: limit long the US Ultra Bond because I recall Japan and the words of that iconic Eagles song ''Hotel California''
World Of Finance

Mirrors On The Ceiling The Pink champagne on ice

However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now. 09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters 


I believe we are now headed to < than 1%

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1807
Dollar Index 92.547
Japan Yen 109.94
Swiss Franc 0.9149
Pound 1.3869
Aussie 0.7346
India Rupee 74.364
South Korea Won 1155.59
Brazil Real 5.17
Egypt Pound 15.7213
South Africa Rand 14.82575

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19-JUL-2021 :: Now lets turn to Africa. lets look at the Virus first

"Over the past month, #Africa recorded an additional 1 million cases. This is the shortest time it’s taken so far to add one million cases." Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19 @WHOAFRO
"Comparatively, it took around three months to move from 4 million to 5 million cases." - Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19

“Past next year we will be moving toward endemicity of this virus on our continent and the consequences will be catastrophic,” ⁦@JNkengason

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WHO regional overviews - Epidemiological week 19 – 25 July 2021 African Region

The African Region reported over 184 000 new cases, a 9% decrease, and over 4900 new deaths, similar numbers as compared to the previous week. 

Over the past two weeks, weekly cases in the Region have begun to decrease after increasing sharply over the previous three weeks. 

This is largely driven by declines observed in South Africa as many other countries in the Region are still reporting increasing case incidences. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

South Africa (84 225 new cases; 142.0 new cases per 100 000 population; -19%)

Zimbabwe (14 664 new cases; 98.7 new cases per 100 000; -7%), 

Botswana (11 524 new cases; 490.0 new cases per 100 000; +7%)
The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (2812 new deaths; 4.7 new deaths per 100 000 population; +11%) 

Zimbabwe (462 new deaths; 3.1 new deaths per 100 000; similar to the previous week)

Namibia (254 new deaths; 10.0 new deaths per 100 000; -57%).

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Dire conditions at hospitals in Algeria forcing staff to man handle their way to oxygen cylinders to save critical patients in time. This is the capital. Imagine the rest of the country @animsche

Dire conditions at hospitals in Algeria forcing staff to man handle their way to oxygen cylinders to save critical patients in time. This is the capital. Imagine the rest of the country where there’s no privilege of going to Germany for treatment

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"Unless there is a dramatic change soon, Ethiopia could be on a path to state failure," said Mr @Dibjir @BBCWorld

"Five years ago the Ethiopian army was the most powerful in the region. The fact it couldn't secure Tigray shows how the situation has deteriorated."

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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Ethiopian army “out of action”, observers say

The Ethiopian army is now “out of action“. At least that’s the opinion of Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research and former UN investigator, who adds that the current situation of the federal government is ”  rather desperate  “. 

For him, the Tigrayan rebellion took advantage both of the poor command of the federal forces ”  purged of its Tigrayan officers before the start of the war  “, but also of the equipment which fell into its hands during its push on Mekele.
The same goes for William Davison, of the International Crisis Group. For him, the general mobilization of the Oromos, Amharas and Afars is explained by “the military necessity ” and “the urgency of unity ” of Ethiopia in the face of its losses. 

“The last advantage that Addis Ababa can oppose is the number of soldiers potentially recruited “, he explains “but it is to be feared that this will only result in more deaths and increased ethnic polarization “, he concludes.
Militarily, the goal for the government is now to protect the strategic Djibouti-Addis highway, say the two analysts. Its capture by the Tigrayans “would change everything “, according to Matt Bryden. 

But for William Davison, it is difficult to see how “less trained and less armed ” militiamen  could turn the situation in favor of Abiy Ahmed, after the Tigrayan forces resisted the combined effort of Ethiopia and Eritrea to undo them.

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19-JUL-2021 His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence.

In the Horn of Africa the Prime Minister of Ethiopia who cloaked his messianic zeal in the language of Mandela 1994 is unlikely to last more than twelve months.
His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence.
The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.
If I could I would be limit short the Ethiopian Birr [It trades at 60 to the $ on the black market]

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November 8, 2020 @PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province

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Sadly though, they are in a farcical recruiting drive. @reda_getachew

Ill trained/equipped peasants are being sent to Afar & Amhara as cannon fodders. We will continue to send them back home.

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COVID, debt, and taxes are plunging millions of Kenyans into poverty @Oneorg @ONEAftershocks @RasnaWarah
Kenyan Economy

While Western nations are focusing their attention on their post-COVID economic recovery, Kenya is confronting a crisis with far-reaching social and economic consequences: rising poverty levels. 

Kenya gained an additional 2 million “new poor” as of last November due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to the World Bank’s Kenya Economic Update

“The pandemic is inflicting tragic loss of life and human suffering in addition to eroding progress in poverty reduction,” said the report. 

Across Africa, an estimated 40 million people been pushed into poverty as incomes drop and unemployment levels rise.
More than a year since the first coronavirus infection in Kenya, almost one in three household-run businesses are not operating, and some may shut down permanently. 

Between February and June 2020, average revenue from household businesses decreased by almost 50%.
Many businesses have not been able to bounce back to pre-COVID levels as the country enters a third wave of the pandemic, which is predicted to peak this month. 

Many manufacturers in Kenya experienced a reduction in the demand for their products, which forced them to decrease their production capacity significantly between May and June 2021, according to a recent survey.
Many Kenyans have not just experienced reduced incomes, but have been shut out of the labour market completely. 

A survey last September found that 1.7 million Kenyans lost their jobs after strict lockdowns and curfews were enforced in April 2020. By the end of June 2020, 4.64 million people were jobless, compared to 2.94 million at the end of March

The majority (63%) were aged between 20 and 29. However, these alarming figures are likely underestimates because a large majority of Kenya’s working-age population is employed in the informal sector.
Joblessness has exacerbated food insecurity and increased the threat of homelessness. Nationally, 30.5% of households were unable to pay rent on the agreed date.
Impact on services
Kenya’s services sector contracted by 3.2% in 2020, due to lower demand and reduced consumption. 

Travel restrictions, including between some of the country’s 47 counties, have severely impacted foreign and domestic tourism and trade. 

Strict social distancing measures have curtailed face-to-face interactions in places like restaurants and bars. 

In April 2021, restriction of movement in the counties of Nairobi, Nakuru, Kiambu, Machakos, and Kajiado —which account for nearly 40% of the country’s GDP — cost the economy Sh230 billion (about US$2.3 billion), according to Mentoria Economics, a Nairobi-based think tank. 

This is the equivalent of 2.4% of Kenya’s US$96 billion GDP.
Transport costs have also gone up; overall there was a 51.7% increase in the cost of public transport because public service vehicles are obliged to carry fewer passengers to enforce social distancing. 

Many long-distance bus companies are no longer operating because fewer passengers meant less profit.
But perhaps the most devastating impact is on the education sector, which has been severely disrupted by school closures. 

Many children from low-income families, especially in rural areas, have been particularly affected. 

One-quarter of families with children who are enrolled in school did not use any method to continue their children’s learning during school closures, according to the KNBS survey. 

This was mainly because they could not afford home schooling or did not have access to online classes. These children are likely to lag behind their peers when schools reopen fully.
Debt and taxes
However, instead of cushioning Kenyans from the pandemic’s economic impact, the Kenyan government introduced a raft of new taxes that will raise the cost of living significantly. 

It has reintroduced 16% VAT on cooking oil and gas, which had been reduced to 14% last year as part of a package of government measures to help Kenyans deal with some of the economic shocks of pandemic. 

The increased VAT is expected to significantly increase the cost of food items such as bread.
The government also increased excise duty on airtime and telephone services from 15% to 20%

This increase will impact the more than 21 million internet users and 59 million sim card subscribers in the country who rely on mobile phones to communicate and to make and receive payments. 

Financial analysts say the high cost of living and additional taxes will make life for millions of Kenyans much more difficult.
A borrowing spree is exacerbating the current economic situation. Kenya’s debt rose from Sh630 billion (about $6 billion at today’s exchange rate) in 2002 to a staggering Sh7.7 trillion (about $77 billion) today. 

By the end of last year, Kenya’s debt stood at nearly 70% of GDP, up from 50% at the end of 2015. 

Unfortunately, the cost of servicing this debt will ultimately fall with Kenyan taxpayers. 

Kenyans are likely to see a rise in the cost of basic services as lenders impose conditions that include making these services most costly. 

For instance, Kenyans learned this month that their water bills are set to rise because lenders such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are pushing for more levies to be imposed on Kenyan consumers.
Such measures are likely to see Kenyans pay more for other services as well, including education. 

This scenario is reminiscent of the World Bank/IMF Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) of the 1990s, which many criticised for pushing an increasing number of Africans into poverty and making essential services unaffordable for the majority. 

SAPs came with stringent conditions attached, which led to layoffs in the civil service and removal of subsidies for essential services, such as health and education. 

African countries undergoing SAPs experienced what is often referred to as “a lost development decade.” 

This is partly why, in order to forestall anticipated austerity measures occasioned by a $2.3 billion IMF loan to Kenya, more than 200,000 Kenyans signed a petition to the IMF early this year to halt the payment.
A long recovery period
The next wave of the pandemic is likely to severely disrupt economic activities further. 

With extremely low vaccination levels – only about 1.5 million people in Kenya out a population of more than 50 million have been vaccinated – it is likely that community transmission of the virus could disrupt economic activities for a longer period as lockdowns and curfews become more frequent. 

Without a mass vaccination programme, and with rising poverty and debt levels, Kenya’s economic recovery may take as long as three years, if not more.
To reverse the trend, the government must take drastic measures to ensure that vaccination levels reach a scale that will allow economic activities to return to normal. 

Targeted cash transfers to low-income households and support to manufacturing firms and small businesses could alleviate some of the negative economic impacts of the pandemic. 

Reducing taxes and placing a moratorium on new taxes until the economy recovers would also go a long way in making Kenyans’ lives a little easier in these harsh economic times.

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Kenya walks recovery tightrope before 2022 elections @AfricanBizMag @__TomCollins
Kenyan Economy

Amid the possibility of further lockdowns, some observers believe that the IMF’s prediction of 7.6% growth in 2021 and 5.7% in 2022 paints an overly rosy picture.

“I’m astonished with the IMF prediction, but frankly the IMF has been significantly off base in a lot of African countries recently,” says Aly-Khan Satchu, CEO of Nairobi-based investment advisory firm Rich Management.
“I’m hard pressed to see how this economy can rebound meaningfully this year. I think we are going to get a very anaemic rebound, probably half of what the IMF is predicting. A lot of people have lost their jobs, it’s been very tough.”
Satchu says that the international community is keen to support Kenya as much as possible while the rest of the region is in turmoil.
“What the IMF and World Bank have done is given Kenya some breathing space and I think in part that is the geopolitical context for what is happening in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa,” he says.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2021

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