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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 29th of July 2021
 
Afternoon
Africa


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Halcyon Days
Misc.




From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds (kingfishers). 

When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. 

These became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today, the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for being happy and/or successful.


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03-SEP-2018 :: I asked, "Darling, how was it?" She said, "Daddy, I danced and I danced and I didn't stop!"
Misc.



I remember a time my then 11 Year old daughter Layla attended the school disco and when I picked her up, her eyes glittered and she could scarcely stand still. 

I asked, ‘’Darling, how was it?’’ She said, “Daddy, I danced and I danced and I didn’t stop!’’ 

I wanted to pick her up, spin her as Jean Rhys wrote in her Novel ‘’Wide sargasso sea’’: 

Only the magic and the dream are true - all the rest’s a lie.
And, “I must remember about chandeliers and dancing, about swans and roses and snow.”

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In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.
Misc.


Lorenz wrote:
''The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.

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Xi Jinping's management crisis: is now asserting consolidated power reliant on coercion&confiscation of any sign of independent economic autonomy @Halsrethink
Law & Politics



Xi Jinping's management crisis: Can intensified centralization of control be achieved without elaborate consensus building? He is now asserting consolidated power reliant on coercion&confiscation of any sign of independent economic autonomy, generating instability at the top

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Xi Jinping [President for Life and Eternity] who has rolled the dice and is on a winning streak.
Law & Politics



The ''Salami Slicer'' has snaffled up Hong Kong and the World waits on tenterhooks for the inevitable move on Taiwan.
The World is full of friction points and it is Xi Jinping [President for Life and Eternity] who has rolled the dice and is on a winning streak.
The Virus whether by design or accident accelerated the advantage in China's favour whichever way you care to slice and dice it.

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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics



The Pandemic and Political Order @ForeignAffairs @FukuyamaFrancis

Another reason for pessimism is that the positive scenarios assume some sort of rational public discourse and social learning. 

Yet the link between technocratic expertise and public policy is weaker today than in the past, when elites held more power.


The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making  is now driven by often weaponized babble.

That is hardly an ideal environment for constructive, collective self-examination, and some polities may remain irrational longer than they can remain solvent

 


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A major obstacle to fixing our #LowIQPandemic is "à la carte reality" (ALCR), which is information silo-ization hardened by scaled confirmation bias. @RadCentrism
Law & Politics


The democratization of information has obvious & great benefits. BUT it's enabled ALCR.
A quick example=Covid "knowledge."

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@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 27 July 2021
Misc.

 



The global number of new cases reported last week (19-25 July 2021) was over 3.8 million, an 8% increase as compared to the previous week. 

An average of around 540 000 cases were reported each day over the past week as compared to 490 000 cases reported daily the week before. 

This increasing trend is largely attributed to substantial increases in the Region of the Americas and the Western Pacific Region. 

The number of deaths reported this week increased sharply with over 69 000 deaths, a 21% increase when compared to the previous week. 

The cumulative number of cases and deaths reported globally is almost 194 million and over 4 million respectively. 

If these trends continue, it is expected that the cumulative number of cases reported globally could exceed 200 million in the next two weeks.

Over the past week, the highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

United States of America (500 332 new cases; 131% increase)

Brazil (324 334 new cases; 13% increase)

Indonesia (289 029 new cases; 17% decrease)

United Kingdom (282 920 new cases; 5% decrease)

India (265 836 new cases; similar to the previous week)



19-JUL-2021 :: COVID-19





The Virus remains unresolved. 




 

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When that happens, there is no growth or decline in cases, but persistent high levels of infections could be observed in endemic states. @DGBassani
Misc.



In endemic steady-state each infected individual infects only 1 additional individual, on average, resulting in an effective R(e) of 1.0. When that happens, there is no growth or decline in cases, but persistent high levels of infections could be observed in endemic states.

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Some places around the globe have experienced a loosely defined state of endemicity at some point during this pandemic, mostly fleeting, but some for bouts of 5-6 months. One perhaps notable example is the city of Manaus @DGBassani
Misc.



Some places around the globe have experienced a loosely defined state of endemicity at some point during this pandemic, mostly fleeting, but some for bouts of 5-6 months. One perhaps notable example is the city of Manaus, in the state of Amazonas in Brazil. 

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08-MAR-2021 ::My concern is that Brazil which was the epicenter of the Virus in May 2020 is once again a Precursor and a Harbinger.
Misc.



The bottom line: P.1 is 2.5 times more transmissible than the wild-type B lineage. And way more transmissible than B.1.1.7. @bollemdb @obscovid19br 


Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen. Brazil is a global threat @bollemdb

Prevalence of P.1 increased sharply from 0% in November 2020 to 73% in January 2021 and in less than 2 months replaced previous lineages 

Manaus had a long sustained period where the number of infections was somewhat stable (late May to Nov 2020), but the high level of circulating virus comes has a price. And this price is the main problem I see with endemicity as a goal/aim. 

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Such periods of high transmission create the opportunity for new lineages to emerge, and one can be out of this ‘fleeting’ endemicity very fast, and back into exponential growth. @DGBassani
Misc.


Such periods of high transmission create the opportunity for new lineages to emerge, and one can be out of this ‘fleeting’ endemicity very fast, and back into exponential growth. This is exactly what happened when P1 emerged in Brazil.

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08-MAR-2021 :: Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen. Brazil is a global threat @bollemdb
Misc.



"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett

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High levels of infections, even w/ ~30% of individuals being previously infected, may be how P.1 might have emerged. @DGBassani
Misc.



High levels of infections, even w/ ~30% of individuals being previously infected, may be how P.1 might have emerged. Initial beliefs that VOC mutations arose in a single event (immunosuppressed individual) where the virus accumulated mutations were not confirmed

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... instead, an “evolutionary process that probably occurred over several months of community transmission” is much more likely. (13/N) @DGBassani
Misc.


The authors suggest that these mutations have been “naturally selected during acute reinfection of partially protected immunocompetent individuals.” Partial immunity via natural infection in early 2020 played a major role in the emergence of mutations later in the year. (14/N)

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as @oatila very directly says below: “Betting on natural immunity kills and generates more transmissible variants.” (15/N) @DGBassani
Misc.



Allowing infections fosters the emergence of mutations, or, in other words, as @oatila very directly says below: “Betting on natural immunity kills and generates more transmissible variants.” (15/N)

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They highlight the hefty price of sustained high rates of infections: while vaccines reduce cases of severe covid, the collective immunity forces the virus to look for new evolutionary solutions to keep circulating. (19/N) @DGBassani
Misc.




19-JUL-2021 :: COVID-19





Certainly, the Vaccine has mitigated Mortality but lets see for how long because in a hyperconnected World just about everyone has to be vaccinated for the World to reach Herd Immunity. Its just not going to happen.

The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population @AdamJKucharski 

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1415587170941874178?s=20
In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/
If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. @AdamJKucharski 

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1415587175794679810?s=20
So, my Point is this, our Attention span is short and Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.




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And the belief in Vaccine Efficacy is now bumping at euphoric levels. Folks I followed on Twitter for their epidemiological excellence now simply recite Vaccine / Inoculation data like a liturgy.
Misc.



It suggests that the idea that for transmission to increase there needs to be reduction in virulence (Trade-off) does not apply to recently emerged diseases. We should not expect to see adaptive evolution of transmission and virulence in new pathogens (mal-adapted). 

The models used at these early stages of a pandemic, accommodate multiple simultaneous mutants allowing their competitive fitness to be assessed over shifting epidemiological conditions in time. (26/N)

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The global economy is projected to grow 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022.The 2021 global forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 #WEO @IMFNews
World Of Finance



Prospects for emerging market and developing economies have been marked down for 2021, especially for Emerging Asia. By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies is revised up. 

Risks around the global baseline are to the downside. 



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09-MAY-2021 The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance



The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM!  I beg to differ

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.


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19-JUL-2021 :: limit long the US Ultra Bond because I recall Japan and the words of that iconic Eagles song ''Hotel California''
World Of Finance





Mirrors On The Ceiling The Pink champagne on ice



However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now. 09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters 



Conclusions

I believe we are now headed to < tha


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Of Finance


Euro 1.1871
Dollar Index 92.082
Japan Yen 109.83
Swiss Franc 0.9085
Pound 1.3954
Aussie 0.7397
India Rupee 74.2755
South Korea Won 1146.05
Brazil Real 5.1167
Egypt Pound 15.7252
South Africa Rand 14.666

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Understanding COVID-19 in Africa @Nature Sofonias K. Tessema & John N. Nkengasong
Africa



Since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa was reported on 14th February 2020, more than 5.1 million cases and 136,000 deaths have been reported (as of June 2021), representing 3% of global cases. 

Contrary to initial models and forecasts, the reported data reflect a markedly less severe epidemiological picture of COVID-19 in Africa. 

Current data suggest a low proportion of patients with severe outcomes and death, and more than 80% of cases appear to be asymptomatic in some countries

Of the reported cases, 43% and 30% are from Southern and Northern Africa regions, respectively, and 5 of the 55 African countries — South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia and Egypt — account for more than half of the total cases of confirmed COVID-19 in Africa

South Africa, Egypt and Tunisia account for more than two-thirds of all reported deaths from COVID-19 in Africa

These studies reported a seroprevalence ranging from 0.4% in the Republic of Cape Verde in June–July 2020 (ref.3) to more than 49% in antenatal care clinics in Kenya in December 2020 (ref.4). 

Only six of these studies were carried out on the national level, highlighting the urgent need for large- scale studies in representative sample populations. 

So far, the reported prevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific anti- bodies is several orders of magnitude higher than would be expected from the reported cases.

Epidemiological studies have indicated a lower incidence of COVID-19 in malaria-endemic areas how- ever, the reasons for this are yet to be investigated, and potential effects on prognosis are unknown. 

A large population-based observational study in South Africa showed that an HIV-positive status doubles the odds of death due to COVID-19 (ref.8)

Similarly, another study from South Africa demonstrated an up to twofold increase in COVID-19 mortality that was associated with prior or current tuberculosis (TB)9.

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WHO regional overviews - Epidemiological week 19 – 25 July 2021 African Region
Africa



The African Region reported over 184 000 new cases, a 9% decrease, and over 4900 new deaths, similar numbers as compared to the previous week. 

Over the past two weeks, weekly cases in the Region have begun to decrease after increasing sharply over the previous three weeks. 

This is largely driven by declines observed in South Africa as many other countries in the Region are still reporting increasing case incidences. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

South Africa (84 225 new cases; 142.0 new cases per 100 000 population; -19%)

Zimbabwe (14 664 new cases; 98.7 new cases per 100 000; -7%), 

Botswana (11 524 new cases; 490.0 new cases per 100 000; +7%)
The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (2812 new deaths; 4.7 new deaths per 100 000 population; +11%) 

Zimbabwe (462 new deaths; 3.1 new deaths per 100 000; similar to the previous week)

Namibia (254 new deaths; 10.0 new deaths per 100 000; -57%).

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19-JUL-2021 :: Now lets turn to Africa. lets look at the Virus first
Africa


"Over the past month, #Africa recorded an additional 1 million cases. This is the shortest time it’s taken so far to add one million cases." Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19 @WHOAFRO
"Comparatively, it took around three months to move from 4 million to 5 million cases." - Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19
From the Africa CDC. (Note: this is based only on official statistics and formal testing, so it undercounts the real situation.) @geoffreyyork
We are on the cusp of the Gladwellian moment
Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. 
https://bit.ly/35ekJJr
“Past next year we will be moving toward e

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Turning to Africa
Africa



We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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You basically have a coup cooking. Sure there's an ongoing political-economic crisis, there always is. @emeyersson
Africa


A forceful exclusion of political competitors under  dubious constitutional grounds w the aid of the security apparatus. Add a curfew and some rights violations on top, and you basically have a coup cooking. Sure there's an ongoing political-economic crisis, there always is.

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And now we have two visions of the Future
Africa



And now we have two visions of the Future. One Vision played out on our screens, the Protestors could have been our Wives, our Children, our Daughters and Sons. 

The Other Vision is that of MBS, MBZ and Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw. 

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Western governments who inherently care quite a lot less about domestic concerns do verbal acrobatics: "we don't want to call it a coup (because we don't want to)". @emeyersson
Africa


Western governments who inherently care quite a lot less about domestic concerns than about the country's role in a more external setting (be it concerns over migrants or terrorists) do verbal acrobatics: "we don't want to call it a coup (because we don't want to)".
The issue as I see it is that any country essentially needs time to develop functioning democratic institutions. Most Western countries took centuries to do this, so expecting a country like Tunisia to fix it in a decade, and on top of a pandemic, is pretty far-fetched.
Yet who has the patience to wait a century for democracy to ripen organically, and for institutions to be hammered to become similar to those political and judiciary systems seen in some Western countries?
After all, why should current generations suffer the volatility in economic conditions, protests, corruption, just so later generations can have the chance to enjoy liberal democracy? Is the risk worth it? 'Democracy doesn't feed your family' etc..
Major external powers will also have concerns over how this democracy process could have negative externalities on their own designs for the region, whether it be political preferences being more aggregated into foreign policy or just the political system itself. Also, migrants.

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The urge for a quicker fix, a shining knight who can come and 'just do the right thing' can come out of both external and domestic pressures, and their union is often the "strongman" @emeyersson
Africa



The urge for a quicker fix, a shining knight who can come and 'just do the right thing' can come out of both external and domestic pressures, and their union is often the "strongman", with the centralized power to do the things in the short term that the others couldn't.
Someone who won't upset the broader balance of thing. ("And as for democracy and the human rights violations , you ask? Well, let me tell you about this thing called 'modernization theory' once I get rid of the dust and the mold....")

But more centralized power, while it may be a quick fix to *some* problems, is arguably a poor fix for longer-term problems. And external support propping up such strongmen can act as a distortion of otherwise more organic political processes.

Regimes that rely more on external than domestic support to prop it up will be vulnerable to changes in that very external support. Think African in the 90s, or MENA once the US realized fighting Islamic terrorism wasn't anything. Then it's basically back to square one.

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And even if centralized power befalls a philosopher king, it will be a challenge to stay so nice with so much power. Maybe you want to be Lee but, chances are, more often you'll be Tito or Reza Shah. @emeyersson
Africa


And even if centralized power befalls a philosopher king, it will be a challenge to stay so nice with so much power. Even if you're a pinnacle of the benevolent dictator, it is rarely sustainable. Maybe you want to be Lee but, chances are, more often you'll be Tito or Reza Shah.

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January 15, 2011 Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution @csmonitor
Africa



Mr. Ben Ali in a speech on Monday called the riots “terrorist acts” that were the work of “masked gangs” operating for foreign parties.
"We are not afraid, we are not afraid, we are afraid only of God," the crowds chanted on Tuesday in Tunis.
On Thursday, the American secretary of State said the following in Qatar.
“In too many places, in too many ways, the region’s foundations are sinking into the sand,” said Secretary Hillary Clinton. 

“Those who cling to the status quo may be able to hold back the full impact of their countries’ problems for a little while, but not forever, If leaders don’t offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum.”
Change is never incremental, it tips and surges. Looking at Tunisia and Africa, I see so many similarities. 

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Youths block road, rail link between Djibouti, Addis Ababa - official @Reuters
Africa



Ethiopia's Somali region said on Wednesday a vital road and rail trade artery linking the landlocked capital of Addis Ababa to the sea port of Djibouti was blocked by youths angered by a deadly militia attack on their region.
Around 95% of imports into the nation of around 110 million people are transported via that corridor, according to a 2018 study by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Reuters could not independently verify the reported blockage. The Ethiopian prime minister's office and authorities in Djibouti could not immediately be reached for comment.
Somali region President Mustafa Muhumed Omer said the road and rail had been blocked by local youth protesting against an attack on Saturday.
His government said on Tuesday that militia from the neighbouring region of Afar had attacked and looted a town, the latest flare-up in a local boundary dispute that adds to high tensions in the Horn of Africa nation. read more
In Addis Ababa, the impact of the reported blockage of the transport corridor on stocks of essential goods like fuel was not immediately clear. Long lines at petrol stations are common in normal times.
"We are working to open the Djibouti rail and road today," Mustafa, the Somali region President, told Reuters in a text message. "Discussing with the youth and people," he added.

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"Unless there is a dramatic change soon, Ethiopia could be on a path to state failure," said Mr @Dibjir @BBCWorld
Africa


"Five years ago the Ethiopian army was the most powerful in the region. The fact it couldn't secure Tigray shows how the situation has deteriorated."

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Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold
Africa



Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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19-JUL-2021 His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence.
Africa


In the Horn of Africa the Prime Minister of Ethiopia who cloaked his messianic zeal in the language of Mandela 1994 is unlikely to last more than twelve months.
His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence. 
The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.
If I could I would be limit short the Ethiopian Birr [It trades at 60 to the $ on the black market]

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09-DEC-2019 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa



Everyone knows how this story ends. When the music stops, everyone will dash for the Exit and the currency will collapse just like its collapsing in Lusaka as we speak. 

Nigeria matters and it has not posted positive GDP growth above its population growth for a number of years. Essentially Baba Go Slow’s Nigeria is in reverse gear 

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Eaagads Ltd.reports FY Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural



Par Value:                  1/25
Closing Price:           11.50
Total Shares Issued:          32157000.00
Market Capitalization:        369,805,500
EPS:               0.05 
PE:                 230



Full Year earnings for financial year ended 31st March 2021

FY Revenue 139.662m versus 48.622m +187.24%

FY Fair Value Gain [Loss] on biological Assets 4.121m versus [9.637m]

FY Cost of Production [85.479m] versus [73.996m]

FY Gross Profit [Loss] 58.304m versus [35.011m]

FY Net Operating Costs [53.644m] versus [42.077m]

FY Profit [loss] before Taxation 4.660m versus [77.088m]

FY Profit [Loss] for the Year 1.750m versus [66.705m]

Revaluation surplus 176.080m versus 51.645m

FY Total comprehensive income 177.830m versus [15.060m]

FY EPS 0.05 versus [2.07]



Commentary 



Company produced 233 tonnes of Coffee versus 114 tonnes produced previous year

average price realised during the year 2021 increased to $5.52 per KG versus $3.75 per KG

Company also revalued its freehold land [44 hectares]

remaining Land is leasehold 341 hectares 

Eaagads coffee continues to attract a premium

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Eaagads audited results for period ended 31 March 2021 @NSE_Investors
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Conclusions

a significant improvement. higher volumes + better prices 

Coffee Prices are in a sweet spot 

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FAHARI I-REIT reports H1 EPS 0.23 versus 0.48 Earnings
N.S.E General



Par Value:                  
Closing Price:           6.94
Total Shares Issued:          180972300.00
Market Capitalization:        1,255,947,762
EPS:             0.82
PE:                 8.463


ILAM FAHARI I-REIT reports 6 month results ended 30th June 2021

HY Revenue 135.221664m versus 166.924249m

HY Other Income 11.829475m versus 13.202863m

HY Operating Income [106.300761m] verus [101.880986m]

HY Profit for the Period 42.211791m versus 86.033091m

HY EPS 0.23 versus 0.48

Net Asset Value 20.50

Commentary 

Rental and related income decreased significantly by 22% owing to aforementioned loss of revenue from anchor tenant at Greenspan Mall

Tuskys supermarket - Naivas now onboarded

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ILAM Fahari I-REIT [@ILAMReit] six months ended 30 Jun 2021 results: @MwangoCapital
N.S.E General


-Rental income down 22% to Ksh 136.7M
-Interest income down 10%
-Property expenses up 9%
-Fund operating expenses remained stable
-AUM Ksh 3.8B
-Net profit down 51% to Ksh 42.2M



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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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