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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 10th of August 2021
 
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Africa


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Roberto Bolaño and the Beat Connection @NewYorker
Misc.



“I write verses, dream of a novel.” 

During that time, he read William S. Burroughs daily and often commented on the writer’s work. (Burroughs was the “ice shard that would never melt,” he writes in his essay collection “Between Parentheses,” “the eye that never closes.”

In an early version of “The Spirit of Science Fiction,” Burroughs was the contact person for the young Chileans. 

Bolaño was also influenced by Burroughs’s approach to structure; he was fascinated by “Naked Lunch” and by the collage-like experimentation of “Nova Express.” 

He even borrowed some of Burroughs’s methods, riffing on Burroughs’s “cut-up” technique in his own verse.

In it, he describes Kerouac as a poet who “opens his body and his movement to the sweet enchantments of Mexico D.F, and suddenly the city (the Mexican lunacy) begins flowing through him.” 

 In 1955, Kerouac, like Remo and Jan, lived in a ramshackle rooftop apartment in Mexico City with an old friend of Burroughs’s, the thief and morphine addict William Garver

While there, Kerouac composed most of “Mexico City Blues.” 

In his introduction, Bolaño writes of Kerouac’s “need to perturb the neutral spaces of everyday life, transforming them.” This was part of the Beatniks’ famed approach to extemporization—the way Kerouac and his contemporaries transmuted the mundane.

In his introduction, Bolaño suggests that Kerouac, for all his virtuosity, was “the apolitical North American boy combining black jazz musicians, Indian gods and Mexican experiences like others collect stamps. Kerouac developed the discourse of emptiness in order to fill in the spaces shattered by love.”

The novel is similar to Kerouac’s novella “Tristessa,” which details Kerouac’s encounter with drug addiction and an impoverished prostitute in Mexico City. 

But where Kerouac arrives from the north, Bolaño's characters arrive from the south, looking not for the fast life but for a refuge from detention and torture in Chile. 

They, too, begin integrating into the city’s bohemian counterculture—but as a means of affirming life rather than as an embrace of self-destruction. 

But it also has achingly beautiful passages, and its lessons about the reach of American policy resonate to this day. 

A superbly talented young man wrote it, in 1984, believing that truth reached through art was the only means to revolution. 

In this sense, it reads like a dispatch from beyond the grave. “The soul of the dead author” is present in the novel, Bolaño wrote, “along with the other ghosts.”

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In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.
Food, Climate & Agriculture



Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.

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#IPCC Working Group 1 report Climate Change 2021
Food, Climate & Agriculture



It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. 

Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.

Since 2011 (measurements reported in AR5), concentrations have continued to increase in the atmosphere, reaching annual averages of 410 ppm for carbon dioxide (CO2), 1866 ppb for methane (CH4), and 332 ppb for nitrous oxide (N2O) in 2019

Global surface temperature in the first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) was 0.99 [0.84-1.10] °C higher than 1850-1900 . 

Global surface temperature was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] °C higher in 2011–2020 than 1850–1900, with larger increases over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83] °C) than over the ocean (0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] °C). 

The estimated increase in global surface temperature since AR5 is principally due to further warming since 2003–2012 (+0.19 [0.16 to 0.22] °C)

It is virtually certain that the global upper ocean (0–700 m) has warmed since the 1970s and extremely likely that human influence is the main driver. 

It is virtually certain that human-caused CO2 emissions are the main driver of current global acidification of the surface open ocean. 

Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m between 1901 and 2018. 

The average rate of sea level rise was 1.3 [0.6 to 2.1] mm yr–1 between 1901 and 1971, increasing to 1.9 [0.8 to 2.9] mm yr–1 between 1971 and 2006, and further increasing to 3.7 [3.2 to 4.2] mm yr–1 between 2006 and 2018 (high confidence). 

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23-NOV 2015 I cannot help feeling we are like frogs in boiling water. We have created massive interference in the "cosmic tuning" phenomenon
Food, Climate & Agriculture



In this book, Martin Rees puts forward six equations which govern our universe, a universe so big that we are like a grain of sand on a beach. The mathematics of these equations is so miraculous that Rees speaks to a “cosmic tuning” phenomenon.
For example; Ω ≈ 0.3: the ratio of the actual density of the universe to the critical (minimum) density required for the universe to even- tually collapse under its gravity. Ω determines the ultimate fate of the universe. 

If Ω is greater than one, the universe will experience a big crunch. If Ω is less than one, the universe will expand forever.

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Myanmar's unchecked epidemic threatens COVID-19 'tsunami' @NikkeiAsia
Law & Politics



"The possibility of Myanmar becoming the world epicenter of the COVID crisis is very real, and it's a danger for everybody," Kobsak Chutikul, a retired Thai ambassador who closely monitors developments in Myanmar, told an Asia News Network webinar on Aug. 2.
"We are behind the curve now, and have to act immediately," he said, raising the specter of a "COVID tsunami" drowning the region.

Deaths in Yangon, the largest city, have exceeded 2,000 per day in recent weeks, according to Democratic Voice of Burma reporters still on the ground.

"The coup has resulted in a near total collapse of the health care system, and health care workers are being attacked and arrested," Barbara Woodward, the U.K. ambassador to the United Nations said at an informal meeting of the Security Council on July 28.

"I have seen more deaths in the last four weeks than at any time in my 37-year career as a doctor," Frank Smithuis, a Dutch doctor with Medical Action Myanmar, one of the few organizations currently operating centers to treat patients with severe infections, told Nikkei.

Myanmar's COVID threat goes well beyond ASEAN, however. Lodged between India and China, it borders 38% of the world's population -- including Bangladesh (population: 163 million), which abuts deeply troubled Rakhine State.
Bangladesh is 13.5 times more densely populated than Myanmar, and in lockdown until Tuesday. Confirmed daily cases there have continued rising steeply to over 16,000.

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Ex-Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher put it: “We injected monetary heroin into the system.” @ClarkiiStomias
World Of Finance



I remain very bullish Long term G7 Bonds. 




09-MAY-2021 ::  The Lotos-eaters However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.




Conclusions

I believe we are now headed to < than 1% $TNX




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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.1739

Dollar Index 92.96

Japan Yen 110.372

Swiss Franc 0.9202

Pound 1.3852

Aussie 0.7332

India Rupee 74.35

South Korea Won 1149.245

Brazil Real 5.233

Egypt Pound 15.6998

South Africa Rand 14.76



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Turning to Africa
Africa




We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming


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Zambia's Lungu faces tight election contest as debt crisis bites @Reuters
Africa



Investors are closely watching the Aug. 12 vote in the major copper producer which had the continent's first pandemic-era sovereign default in November.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) support, already broadly agreed, is on hold until after the vote. 

So too is debt restructuring seen as an early test of a new global plan to ease poor countries' burden. read more
In power since 2015, 64-year-old Lungu faces a potentially tight contest against Hakainde Hichilema - known as "HH" - a businessman who has criticised the incumbent's economic management.
While Hichilema has shown a desire to tackle the debt problems and engage with investors, Lungu's Patriotic Front (PF) for years sought to avoid an IMF programme, noted Christian Libralato, emerging markets portfolio manager at BlueBay Asset Management.
"Investors may see a potentially clearer path to an IMF programme and a debt restructuring under HH," said Libralato, whose firm holds Zambia's defaulted bonds.
Zambia owes in excess of $12 billion to external creditors and spends 30%-40% of its revenues just meeting the interest payments on its debt, credit rating firm S&P Global estimates. 

Its debt-to-GDP ratio was near 120% last year, one of the highest in emerging markets and probably double the level considered to be manageable.
Zambia said in May it had reached a broad agreement with the IMF on macroeconomic and fiscal targets and policy issues during talks to secure lending, setting the stage for what investors hope will be a post-election deal.
Zambia's electoral commission in May announced a ban on campaign rallies to curb the spread of COVID-19. 

But both the PF and Hichilema's United Party for National Development have held gatherings on the pretext of distributing face masks.
Lungu is campaigning on infrastructure investments and increased state control of mining.
Copper mining, which generates around 70% of Zambia's export revenues, has been highly politicised in the run-up to the election.
Zambia's state mining investment arm ZCCM-IH agreed in January to take on $1.5 billion in debt in exchange for full control of Mopani Copper Mines, which previous majority owner Glencore (GLEN.L) had planned to shutter.
Hichilema, however, criticised it, saying it added to Zambia's debt load.
Hichilema, 59, casts himself as a self-made man in campaign videos, saying he walked to school barefoot as a child and attended university on a government bursary. He was CEO of an accountancy firm before entering politics.
He has contested and lost five presidential elections, but only narrowly lost to Lungu in 2016's disputed vote. He was charged with treason and briefly jailed the following year.
With polls seen as unreliable, analysts say this election is too close to call. 

Political violence has escalated ahead of the vote, including two ruling party supporters hacked to death with machetes, leading Lungu to deploy the military.
Some 54% of registered voters are 34 or younger, statistics from the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) show.
That could help Hichilema, who has placed the economy front and centre of his campaign, said Euston Chiputa, history professor at the University of Zambia.
"Hichilema has gained ground among the youth because there are frustrations regarding employment," he said.
Unemployment hit a 10-year high in 2020, according to International Labour Organisation estimates, and the local kwacha currency's nearly 40% depreciation since January 2020 has made life more expensive for Zambia's roughly 18 million people.
The roads, schools, and hospitals built by Lungu's government and paid for by debt - notably Chinese loans and eurobonds - have not yet delivered promised growth.
The IMF expects the economy to be among the weakest in Africa this year, with GDP set to grow just 0.6% after a 3.5% contraction last year.
A win for Hichilema, seen as a market-friendly candidate, could trigger a relief rally for Zambian assets, said Kevin Daly at Aberdeen Standard Investments, a member of the Zambia External Bondholder Committee, which represents holders of Zambia's eurobonds.
Zambian government bonds have already gained more than 30% since November as investors look to an IMF deal. , ,
Zambia is also set to be the biggest beneficiary of the IMF's new $650 billion allocation of Special Drawing Rights, which will boost its foreign reserves.

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- Equity turnover at the @NSE_PLC fell 33.5% to Kshs 9.3B in July, from Kshs 13.95B in June @MwangoCapital
N.S.E General


- Foreign investors cut their selling activity in July, recording net outflows of Kshs 60.85m compared to Kshs 1.6B in June

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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