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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 18th of August 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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"The road must eventually lead to the whole world." - Jack Kerouac, On the Road
Misc.


Kerouac describes this photograph as "a long shot of night road arrowing forlorn into immensities and flat of impossible-to-believe America in New Mexico under the prisoner's moon."

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It was in 1991 [3 decades ago now] that Krauthammer spoke of the “Unipolar Moment” and highlighted that the US had emerged as the center of world power and unchallenged superpower.
Law & Politics


The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
It was in 1991 [3 decades ago now] that Krauthammer spoke of the “Unipolar Moment” and highlighted that the US had emerged as the center of world power and unchallenged superpower.
Thirty years later, The US is exiting Afghanistan and we can speak of a Tripolar World with the US, China and Russia now ruling the c21st Roost. 

The ''Salami Slicer'' has snaffled up Hong Kong and the World waits on tenterhooks for the inevitable move on Taiwan.

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Western interventionist models of state building have been bankrupted Around we go in concentric circles of failure, stuck between forever wars and systemic collapses. @DinoMahtani
Law & Politics




Western interventionist models of state building have been bankrupted by the idea that you can throw guns and money at client regimes, and turn a blind eye to systems of governance. Around we go in concentric circles of failure, stuck between forever wars and systemic collapses.

Here we go round the prickly pear The Hollow Men T.S. ELIOT

http://bit.ly/2X0NovE

Here we go round the prickly pear
Prickly pear prickly pear
Here we go round the prickly pear
At five o’clock in the morning.
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

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This reality, in combination with the fall of Kabul, can tempt a potential aggressor. In order to head off such a dangerous miscalculation, @POTUS will have to prove his resolve sooner rather than later @FHeisbourg
Law & Politics





...self-inflicted wound during the August 2013 Red Line crisis. This reality, in combination with the fall of Kabul, can tempt a potential aggressor. In order to head off such a dangerous miscalculation,  @POTUS will have to prove his resolve sooner rather than later 

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If war breaks out across the Taiwan Straits, will US keep its promises? @globaltimesnews
Law & Politics


Some media asked after US hastened pullout from #Afghanistan. #US has never promised to send troops if conflicts occur across the Straits, an expert in Taiwan said.

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#环球时报Editorial: From what happened in Afghanistan, those in Taiwan should perceive that once a war breaks out in the Straits, the island’s defense will collapse in hours and US military won’t come to help. @globaltimesnews
Law & Politics


#环球时报Editorial: From what happened in Afghanistan, those in Taiwan should perceive that once a war breaks out in the Straits, the island’s defense will collapse in hours and US military won’t come to help. As a result, the DPP will quickly surrender.  

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#PLA Eastern Theater Command on Tue dispatched warships, ASW aircraft and fighter jets for joint live-fire assault drills in SW, SE areas off the island of Taiwan @globaltimesnews
Law & Politics


#PLA Eastern Theater Command on Tue dispatched warships, ASW aircraft and fighter jets for joint live-fire assault drills in SW, SE areas off the island of Taiwan as response to recent moves by the US and Taiwan secessionists: spokesperson

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Someone said that @JohnCornyn mistook that number I think the senator is not confused, and he wants to test our response. My answer to him is war. @HuXijin_GT
Law & Politics



Someone said that @JohnCornyn mistook that number by using the number of previous US troops stationed on Taiwan island before China and the US set up diplomatic relations. I think the senator is not confused, and he wants to test our response. My answer to him is war.

.@HuXijin_GT[dials it up to 11]

Amp. goes to 11 (This is Spinal Tap)


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The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis
Law & Politics


The Pandemic and Political Order @ForeignAffairs @FukuyamaFrancis
Another reason for pessimism is that the positive scenarios assume some sort of rational public discourse and social learning.
Yet the link between technocratic expertise and public policy is weaker today than in the past, when elites held more power.
The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making  is now driven by often weaponized babble.
That is hardly an ideal environment for constructive, collective self-examination, and some polities may remain irrational longer than they can remain solvent

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At the global level, new cases are approaching previous heights (see daily values in vertical bars). @fibke
Misc.


Given delta & incomplete vaccination, how high will the mortality peak be? Are we heading towards the pandemic's most intense moment?





19-JUL-2021 :: So, my Point is this, our Attention span is short and Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.




cases have been trending higher for 7 consecutive weeks. 


There are still more than 4 million cases and more than 60,000 deaths from #covid19 reported every week. @kakape



 COVID-19





The Virus remains unresolved. 






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If you would have told me we'd have 85,000 hospitalizations in a 4th wave, when there are free, very safe, highly effective vaccines and enough for everyone over age 12, I wouldn't believe you. But here we are. @EricTopol
Misc.


If you would have told me we'd have 85,000 hospitalizations in a 4th wave, when there are free, very safe, highly effective vaccines (90% protective vs hospitalizations w/ Delta), and enough for everyone over age 12, I wouldn't believe you. But here we are. 

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The Muslim Qabristan in Andheri’s DN Nagar used to bury thirty to forty bodies in a month on average, but, this Ramzan, it received around a hundred and thirty bodies due to COVID-19. @thecaravanindia
Misc.



“One would think that twenty years in the gravedigging business would toughen you up, but nothing can prepare you for this.”


―They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences



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Gonna need a huge stimmy: either more lockdowns or war @jpmorgan @zerohedge
Misc.





The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM!  I beg to differ

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.



I remain very bullish Long term G7 Bonds. 




09-MAY-2021 ::  The Lotos-eaters However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.



Conclusions

I believe we are now headed to < than 1% $TNX




09-MAY-2021 The Lotos-eaters





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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1718
Dollar Index 93.06
Japan Yen 109.60
Swiss Franc 0.91384
Pound 1.3739
Aussie 0.7266
India Rupee 74.28355
South Korea Won 1168.45
Brazil Real 5.29
Egypt Pound 15.70
South Africa Rand 14.8694

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Zambia’s Opposition Wins Surprise Landslide as Defaulting Economy Reels @WSJ
Africa



Zambian opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema was elected president of Africa’s second-largest copper producer on Monday, defeating incumbent Edgar Lungu, a close Beijing ally, and marking the first election loss for a sitting African president for two years.

Official results from the Zambian Election Commission showed that Mr. Hichilema, an economist who had unsuccessfully contested the election five times, was declared victor with more than 2.8 million votes to Mr. Lungu’s 1.8 million. 

The campaign was fought amid the country’s worst economic crisis in decades, including a default on billions of dollars of debt and a darkening outlook aggravated by the impact of the coronavirus.
The wider-than-expected margin of victory means Mr. Hichilema avoided a runoff. 

Mr. Lungu, whose government had blocked social-media sites and over the weekend alleged the vote was “not free and fair,” conceded on Monday. 

In televised remarks, he said he accepted the election results as announced by the country’s election body. 

“I will comply with the constitutional provisions for a peaceful transfer of power,“ he said.
The outcome marks Zambia’s third transfer of power through the ballot box in as many decades, further cementing the southern African nation’s reputation as bulwark of democracy on the continent. 

Recent years have seen entrenched leaders—from Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni to Cameroon’s Paul Biya —declare victories in a series of flawed elections that some analysts have labeled as a regional democratic backsliding.

“Large turnout across the country suggested that Zambians had decided that Lungu’s time was up,” said Nic Cheeseman, professor of democracy at the U.K.’s University of Birmingham. 

“We believe that this demonstrates considerable independence of Zambia’s electoral commission.”

Known as HH, Mr. Hichilema premised his campaigns on fixing Zambia’s broken economy and now faces the daunting task turning around the country’s battered public finances. 

Zambia, which in November became the first country in Africa to default on its sovereign debt during the coronavirus pandemic, has some $12 billion in external debt, including $3 billion in international bonds and large loans from Chinese state-owned lenders. 

The government hasn’t said exactly how much it owes to Chinese lenders as a whole. 

Johns Hopkins University’s China-Africa Research Initiative estimates that Zambia has signed some $9.9 billion in loans from China, although not all of that money has been drawn. 

Talks with the International Monetary Fund over a bailout loan, already broadly agreed, were put on hold last month until after the vote.

On Monday, Zambia’s sovereign dollar bonds jumped nearly 2 cents after the landslide victory raised hopes of economic reform.

“Given his history in the private sector, we expect that a Hichilema presidency will implement more business-friendly policies, as opposed to Mr. Lungu, who has a track record of intimidating foreign mining companies,” said Zaynab Mohamed, an analyst at South-Africa based NKC African Economics.
Analysts added that the margin of victory was remarkable as it came despite Mr. Lungu’s attempts to tilt the playing field in his ruling party’s favor, deploying the military and attempting to restrict campaigning, according to election monitors. 

European Union election observers said the vote was marred by unequal campaign restrictions that favored the incumbent. 

Social media and internet access was shut down on the voting day, drawing condemnation from rights activists and observers.
Mr. Hichilema, who trained in the U.K. before returning home in the 1990s to start an accounting and finance business, has faced intense government pressure in recent years, including a four-month jail term in 2017 on a treason charge after his motorcade allegedly refused to give way to Mr. Lungu’s presidential convoy.
As early results started trickling in from Thursday’s vote, the 64-year-old Mr. Lungu, in power since 2015, questioned the fairness of the process, citing violence in at least three opposition strongholds. 

He said election officials from his party had been chased from polling stations, “rendering the whole exercise a nullity.”
The opposition rejected the accusations.
On Monday, Mr. Lungu’s Patriotic Front party formally conceded, saying that it was time for introspection. “Let us search our hearts,” a party spokesman said. “We still have a part to play as the largest opposition party in Zambia.”
Michael Chishala, a Zambian rights activist, said that the election outcome gives Zambia a chance to rebuild its democracy and address worsening economic hardships.
“The runaway public debt must be arrested immediately. We have to stop borrowing like there is no tomorrow,” he said. “We need Zambia to be business-friendly and less complicated.

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@HHichilema
Africa



14-OCT-2019 ::The Canary in the Coal Mine is Zambia


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Spotlight on Zambia’s economy as opposition leader wins election @AfricanBizMag @__TomCollins
Africa



The decisive victory for the long-time opposition leader looks set to buoy rattled investor confidence amid a hostile regulatory environment in the mining sector, a Eurobond default in December and over $12bn in external debt. 

The new president will have to move quickly to agree a bailout with the IMF and revamp talks with creditors to stop further damage to the economy, experts say.
Zambia’s economy has borrowed heavily to bankroll questionable infrastructure projects since Lungu took power in 2015.
Central to keeping the southern African country’s economy afloat is to strike a debt deferral deal with China, Zambia’s largest creditor, says Eric Olander, managing editor of The China Africa Project website and podcast.
The murky details of Zambia’s Chinese debt profile has also made it harder to qualify for a lending programme with the IMF, leading to calls that Hichilema should pass legislation that will require all government loan contracts to be made public. 

Officials in Washington are privately concerned that any debt relief will be used to repay China instead of engineering economic growth, Olander says.
“To stop the country from sinking deeper into financial despair, the president-elect will have to use some of that hard-earned political capital to reset relations with China, Zambia’s most important bilateral creditor and one of its largest trading partners. 

It’s not going to be easy, but he can’t fix the economy without changing the terms of engagement with creditors in Beijing,” he says.
The IMF is also expected to push for key economic reforms shortly after the election before signing off on a loan agreement. 

Hichilema had promised to ease the regulatory environment and bring back foreign investment to the mines in the run up to the election, though analysts say it is too early to tell whether his tenure will be a continuation of Lungu’s legacy of aggressive resource nationalism.
“I think it’s too early to tell how he’s going to handle the mining company issue given that the debt crisis is probably a more pressing concern at this time. Furthermore, if we see the difficulties that Felix Tshisekedi is having in the DRC to renegotiate mining contracts, I think the president-elect may opt to wait a bit before taking on that issue,” says Olander.
The country is locked in dispute with several mining companies including India-based Vendanta and Anglo-Swiss Glencore. 

In May 2019, the government accused Vendanta of failing to honour license conditions and seized the company’s Konkola Copper Mines.
A major foreign exchange earner, analysts say the government must act quickly to reach agreements with foreign companies and ramp up the output of mineral exports, especially with copper prices at a ten-year high.

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COOP Group Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd.reports HY 2021 EPS +2.439% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment



Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           13.70
Total Shares Issued:          5867179554.00
Market Capitalization:        80,380,359,890
EPS:             1.98
PE:                 6.919

COOP Group reports HY Earnings through 30th June 2021 versus 6 months through 30th June 2020

HY Total Assets 573.008622b versus 513.923987b +11.496% 

HY Loans & Advances to Customers [Net] 301.191046b versus 272.156870b +10.668% 

HY Investment Securities held at amortised Cost 82.620456b versus 70.876642b

HY Investment Securities Fair Value through other comprehensive income 99.332570b versus 51.491270b

HY Customer Deposits 407.686001b versus 384.636644b

HY Total Interest Income 25.959937b versus 21.811118b

HY Total Interest Expenses 7.128241b versus 5.897391b

HY Net Interest Income 18.831696b versus 15.913727b

HY Total Non Interest Income 10.323593b versus 8.307302b

HY Total Operating Income 29.155289b versus 24.221029b

HY Loan Loss Provision 4.158258b versus 1.864902b

HY Staff Costs 6.506281b versus 6.591924b

HY Other Operating Expenses 5.812365b versus 3.957781b

HY Total other operating expenses 18.695896b versus 14.567856b

HY Profit before Tax 10.524296b versus 9.599297b

HY Profit after Tax 7.365580b versus 7.197918b

HY EPS 1.26 versus 1.23 +2.439% 

HY Gross NPLS 50.845898b versus 34.300888b

HY Loan Loss Provisions 25.478371b versus 13.062926b

HY Net NPLs exposure 1.124233b versus 3.802361b

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Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd - Unaudited Results of the Group & Bank for the Period Ended 30-Jun-2021 @tradingroomke
World Of Finance



Conclusions

Significantly underperforming its Peer Group [in part because they have increased Loan Loss Provisions where others have released provisions back]

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.@TotalEnergiesKE - reports HY 2021 EPS +50% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied



Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           24.50
Total Shares Issued:          175028706.00
Market Capitalization:        4,288,203,297
EPS:             5.24
PE:                 4.676

Leading multinational energy company.

TotalEnergies reports HY 2021 Earnings through 30th June 2021 versus 30th June 2020

HY Gross Sales 51.821407b versus 44.425948b

HY Net Sales 34.482725b versus 31.456252b

HY Cost of Sales [29.815638b] versus [27.459684b]

HY Gross Profit 4.667087b versus 3.996568b

HY Other Income 951.547m versus 732.460m

HY Operating Expenses [3.126289b] versus [3.136021b]

HY Profit before Tax 2.483477b versus 1.551496b

HY Profit after Tax 1.701892b versus 1.136193b

HY EPS 2.70 versus 1.80 +50% 

Commentary

growth in sales revenue, stable unit margins reflecting optimization of fuel stocks diversified revenue segments and prudent management of fixed costs

Net Sales increased by 10% 

Other income increased by 30% 

No Interim Dividend 

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Kakuzi Ltd. reports HY 2021 EPS -28.66% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural



Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           415.00
Total Shares Issued:          19600000.00
Market Capitalization:        8,134,000,000
EPS:             31.74
PE:                 13.075

Kakuzi reports Half Year Earnings through 30th June 2021 versus comparative figures for the previous year

HY Sales 888.949m versus 889.909m

Profit before fair value gain in non-current biological assets and income Tax 256.094m versus 186.022m

Fair value gain in non-current biological assets 20.569m versus 18.095m

HY Profit before income Tax 276.663m versus 204.117m

HY Income Tax [expense] credit [82.025m] versus 68.670m

HY Profit after Tax 194.638m versus 272.787m

HY EPS 9.93 versus 13.92 -28.66% 

Cash and Cash Equivalents 1.198311b versus 1.013062b

Commentary

harvesting of our flagship products avocado and macadamia began in earnest in June.

preliminary production data at this stage indicates that avocado crop output to market is significantly lower than in 2020

COVID-19 pandemic will continue to disrupt the potential of our markets to absorb our produce to a certain degree for the rest of this year

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@Kakuzi_Plc Unaudited Results for the Six Months Ended 30th June 2021. @tradingroomke
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural



Conclusions

HY Income Tax [expense] credit [82.025m] versus 68.670m was material

Its a cheap share and one to hold for the medium term. 

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Equity Group Holdings Ltd H1 2021 EPS +94.56%
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           51.00
Total Shares Issued:          3773674802.00
Market Capitalization:        192,457,414,902
EPS:             5.24
PE:                 9.733
 
Equity Group reports HY 2021 Earnings through 30th June 2021
HY Total Assets 1.119737205 trillion versus 746.469073b +50.00%
HY Investment Securities 315.497412b versus 216.385915b
HY Loans and Advances to Customers [net] 504.848616b versus 391.633218b +28.90%
HY Customer Deposits 819.684096b versus 543.893929b
HY Total Interest Income 42.746576b versus 32.796246b
HY Total Interest Expense 11.591921b versus 8.161025b
HY Net Interest Income 31.154655b versus 24.635221b +26%
HY Total Non Interest Income 20.767065b versus 14.400233b
HY Total Operating Income 51.921720b versus 39.035454b
HY Loan Loss provision 2.912467b versus 8.022277b
HY Staff Costs 8.518591b versus 6.719322b
HY Other Operating expenses 12.801973b versus 8.956470b
HY Total Operating Expenses 28.090747b versus 27.057962b
HY Profit before Tax 23.830973b versus 11.977492b
HY Profit after Tax and exceptional items and minority interest 17.549239b versus 9.022117b +94.51%
HY EPS 4.65 versus 2.39 +94.56%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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