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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 20th of August 2021
 
Morning
Africa


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The infamous CKGR cutline. This road is NOT for the faint hearted, or the inexperience @ThapzDikgopo
Misc.


The infamous CKGR cutline. This road is NOT for the faint hearted, or the inexperience, More or less 300kms of deep sand, massive holes, abandoned 4x4's and trucks.with not a single car or human to be Now its my turn to go there

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.@FairmontMtKenya in Nanyuki became a mecca for the international jet
Africa


It was William Holden [who was the best man at Ronald Reagan’s wedding to Nancy Davis] who founded the Mount Kenya Safari Club in Nanyuki in 1959.

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Roberto Bolaño The Savage Detectives |
Misc.



Or maybe we were silent for a while, me sitting at the foot of his bed, him stretched out with his book, the two of us sneaking looks at each other, listening to the sound the elevator made, as if we were in a dark room or lost in the country at night, just listening to the sound of horses

Roberto Bolaño The Savage Detectives 


Ah, what a shame they don’t make Los Suicidas mezcal anymore, what a shame that time passes, don’t you think? what a shame that we die, and get old, and everything good goes galloping away from us.

Roberto Bolaño The Savage Detectives | Chapter 14 of 39


The would just look at me with his eyes like lakes at sunset, those lakes in the mountains that no one visits, those sad, peaceful lakes, so peaceful they seem otherworldly, and he would say don’t trouble yourself, Auxilio, or thank you, Auxilio. And that was all. What a lovely man



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It was in 1991 [3 decades ago now] that Krauthammer spoke of the “Unipolar Moment” and highlighted that the US had emerged as the center of world power and unchallenged superpower.
Law & Politics



The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
It was in 1991 [3 decades ago now] that Krauthammer spoke of the “Unipolar Moment” and highlighted that the US had emerged as the center of world power and unchallenged superpower.
Thirty years later, The US is exiting Afghanistan and we can speak of a Tripolar World with the US, China and Russia now ruling the c21st Roost. 

The ''Salami Slicer'' has snaffled up Hong Kong and the World waits on tenterhooks for the inevitable move on Taiwan.

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The Taliban are not the same as the mujahideen, a strange talking point on twitter which flattens a more complicated and nuanced history. @aaolomi
Law & Politics



Both however are a product of imperial meddling.

In the 1970’s Afghanistan’s president Daud Khan undertook an aggressive policy of modernizing the country. @aaolomi

He relied heavily on foreign aid from the United States and the Soviet Union in particular.

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As a result the major employer in Afghanistan was the government and that government relied entirely on foreign aid. @aaolomi
Law & Politics



The result was an enduring economic crisis the bred corruption, scarcity, and economic disparity.

One of the results of Daud Khan’s modernizing efforts was a new generation of university-trained professors, journalists, military commanders, and government officials.
This generation of thinkers were drawn heavily to the vision of reform.

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The United States viewed the revolution as a major threat. However, there was not a single formal response to it.
Law & Politics


We often hear the US created the mujahedeen that is not true, though some would love to take credit.

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The DR of Afghanistan was unfortunately wildly repressive. @aaolomi
Law & Politics





Despite the progress and reforms, they also had a habit of disappearing people. Under Taraki and his right-hand man Hafizullah Amin upwards of 20,000 people or more were killed in imprisonment camps.

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This resulted in armed resistance. Once they attempted land reforms, the rural landowners joined in open revolt. This resistance became the mujahideen. @aaolomi
Law & Politics


They were not a singular group, nor did they have a unified ideology.  There were made up of 4 groups of people roughly aligned

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The most organized were reactionary Islamist factions led by individuals like Hekmatyar a particularly vile man who carried out acid attacks on women and who desired a Qutb-inspired jihad. @aaolomi
Law & Politics



He was allied with the various rural mullahs.  And the more moderate Ahmad Shah Massoud

The second segment were disaffected leftists and Maoists who had been suppressed by the new government. 

The third was actually the junior offices of the PR of Afghanistan who were part of the revolution but who quickly grew disillusioned and defected.
Finally, the bulk of them were simply ordinary Afghans who didn't take up arms until later.

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The DR of Afghanistan’s continued reprisals was a source of concern for the Soviet Union. @aaolomi
Law & Politics


In March 1979, Brezhnev warned Taraki that his repressive tactics was fomenting a resistance. Taraki dismissed the concern.

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The internal divisions in the DR of Afghanistan escalated with Hafizullah Amin killing his boss and taking charge. Even more violent than Taraki, his reprisals bolster the resistance. @aaolomi
Law & Politics



He reached out to the Soviet Union for military support specifically in the form of advisers and equipment (dude really wanted helicopters) but again the Soviet Union was hesitant noting that any involvement would escalate the situation.

They were also aware the majority of the mujahideen were just ordinary people and had hoped that by altering DR of Afghanistan’s tactics they can mollify this group.

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Early the Soviet Union had accurately assessed that any involvement would not only be messy but would foment resistance. @aaolomi
Law & Politics


But the threat of the US getting a foothold and the reality that the US was already meddling with funds meant the cost of noninvolvement was too high.

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The Soviet Union invaded. Operation Storm 333 was activated; they stormed the presidential palace, killed their one-time ally Amin and his family and installed Babrak Karmal. @aaolomi
Law & Politics


The invasion triggered two things: first it led to the final group of the mujahideen to take up arms. This was the bulk of the mujahideen; just ordinary people who fought an invasion by a foreign power.

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The three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy and to keep the barbarians from coming together @zbig Zbigniew Brzezinski
Law & Politics



The three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming together Zbigniew Brzezinski

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He says he wrote to the Carter “We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war.” @aaolomi
Law & Politics



The US escalated by increasing funds, setting up training camps, and bringing in Saudi Arabia and China. The hope was to foster jihadism as an alternative to communism.
The four countries: the US, China, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia became the main backers of the mujahideen.

Interestingly US analysts were annoyed by their attempts to train the mujahideen. 

The group did their own thing and refused to organized like a formal military.

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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics



"Men respond as powerfully to fictions as they do to realities [and] in many cases they help to create the very fictions to which they respond."

And then I recalled


And it all left me wondering Who exactly is controlling the Console?

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.@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 17 August 2021
Misc.



The global number of new cases has been increasing for the last 2 months with over 4.4 million cases reported in the past week (9 – 15 August 2021)
, bringing the cumulative number of globally to cases to over 206 million. 

This increasing trend is largely attributed to increases in the Western Pacific Region and the Region of the Americas which reported 14% and 8% increases respectively as compared to the previous week. 

Overall, the number of deaths reported remained similar with over 66 000 deaths this week, as compared to the previous week. 

19-JUL-2021 :: So, my Point is this, our Attention span is short and Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.



cases have been trending higher for 8 consecutive weeks. 


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Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of August 19: + 660,040 cases in 24 hours @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.




COVID-19





The Virus remains unresolved. 




"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett


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Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL
World Of Finance


“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

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The wave appears to be aligning itself with seasonality, which means we are coming closer and closer to the in-year 2008 timeline (though still slightly ahead). @coloradotravis
World Of Finance



[When the Wilding stops] 08-FEB-2021  The Markets Are Wilding



[Or when the Music stops]  The lights must never go out, The music must always play




Love Fellini. So brave, with that whiff of insanity. @DiAmatoStyle Federico Fellini's 8 1/2 @tcm



tabla wizard, Aref Durvesh @thenitinsawhney


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Ex-Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher put it: “We injected monetary heroin into the system.” @ClarkiiStomias
World Of Finance


Now the only systemic outcomes are withdrawal (asset destruction) or overdose (currency destruction), either of which would lead to the system’s death.
However, there are many discordant notes.
Firstly consider

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The Bullwhip Effect after the great lockdown is often confused with a new and stronger growth trend. @dlacalle_IA
World Of Finance



09-MAY-2021 The Lotos-eaters



The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM!  I beg to differ

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.




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Goldman Sachs: "The impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected. We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%". @mgiulianico
World Of Finance

 




Goldman Sachs: "The impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected. We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%. We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021".



I remain very bullish Long term G7 Bonds. 




09-MAY-2021 ::  The Lotos-eaters However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.




Conclusions

I believe we are now headed to < than 0.5% $TNX



19-JUL-2021 :: limit long the US Ultra Bond because I recall Japan and the words of that iconic Eagles song ''Hotel California''



Mirrors On The Ceiling The Pink champagne on ice










 

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And we become Japan: a nation pushing on strings, to no avail. @coloradotravis
World Of Finance


And the more of it we do, the less potent our monetary creating abilities. Velocity falls.

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But what I think is the most significant chart in the world right now is this one: USDCNH. @coloradotravis
World Of Finance


This market is liquidity-driven, and while the Fed gets all the attention there are... well... arguably more significant things afoot...

Yuan-na watch this one.

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13-AUG-2019 :: The most important currency to watch right now is the USDCNH
World Currencies


The Point is this the Yuan is now the catalyst and China has signalled it will be a shock absor- ber. Xi Jinping was also signalling he had control of the console.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1682
Dollar Index 93.565
Japan Yen 109.66
Swiss Franc 0.9166
Pound 1.3620
Aussie 0.7122
India Rupee 74.43
South Korea Won 1181.945
Brazil Real 5.4152
Egypt Pound 15.6983
South Africa Rand 15.3079

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Gold INO 1787.23
Commodities



19-JUL-2021 ::  However, there are many discordant notes. 


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Gosh darnit I forgot crude. @coloradotravis 63.85
Minerals, Oil & Energy


Anyhow - this is very significant, because in prior threads, the fact that it had not broken down was a contraindicator to our thesis.

Anyhow - here ya go:


19-JUL-2021 ::  However, there are many discordant notes. 



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''After several weeks of steep increases, we are now starting to see a levelling off of the third wave on the continent." - Dr @MoetiTshidi @WHOAFRO
Africa


"There have now been more than 7.3 million #COVID19 cases on the African continent and 184,000 people have sadly lost their lives. ''

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Chart of the week: Opposition election victories in Africa @sbmintelligence
Africa



Zambia is one of only 24 instances out of 304 where an opposition party has won a general or presidential election in Africa since 1990

Missed Zambia 2011 and Malawi most recent.

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Zambia Election Euphoria Fuels Kwacha’s World-Beating Streak @bpolitics
Africa



Zambia’s kwacha extended its gains versus the dollar, making it the world’s best-performing currency since Hakainde Hichilema was announced the winner of the Aug. 12 presidential vote
.
The kwacha has appreciated by 7.8% this week to 17.92 per dollar, the best performance out of more than 140 currencies tracked by Bloomberg globally and on track for the strongest close since May 2020. 

The southern African nation’s $1 billion Eurobonds due 2024 advanced for a fourth straight day to the highest level in more than two years.

The Zambian currency’s rally wiped out the past year’s losses as both offshore and onshore investors sold dollars into the market, and some importers held off buying them in anticipation of further kwacha strength, according to a note from First National Bank Zambia, a unit of Johannesburg-based FirstRand Bank Ltd.

“There is obvious hope amongst investors that there will a swift change in economic policy with the new administration in charge,” said David Willacy, a foreign-exchange trader at StoneX Group Inc. in London. 

“In such a small foreign-exchange market, an influx of dollars from reinvigorated offshore investors goes a long way in a short time, particularly when dollar buyers such as importers remove themselves from the market.”

investors are betting Hichilema, who will be sworn in on Aug. 24, will be able to secure an International Monetary Fund economic program and associated $1.3 billion loan by the end of April. 

They’re also hoping he’ll revive the economy in Africa’s second-biggest copper producing nation, which has been wrecked by years of overspending that led to the government defaulting on its external debt since November. 

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@HHichilema
Africa




14-OCT-2019 ::The Canary in the Coal Mine is Zambia



10-JUN-2019 :: Hugh Masakela said "I want to be there when the People start to turn it around"
https://bit.ly/2Yf5JGV



Turning To Africa

https://bit.ly/35ekJJr

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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Long Read | eSwatini: the people versus the king @NewFrame_News @CebelihleM & @MagMndebele
Africa



After eSwatini security forces sent many to early graves in late June and much of July, King Mswati III sat on a golden throne in his Lobamba palace on 16 July and declared, 

“Every person [in this country] is the king’s. Everything in eSwatini is the king’s.” Then he announced the new prime minister would be Cleopas Dlamini.
This move was a snub to the people who have been calling for democratic reforms, specifically the election of a prime minister. 

“I have never seen anything like this since I was born. It is shocking that people are being killed like flies,” says Tryphinia Simelane, 72, a resident of Siphocosini in northwest eSwatini, a highveld area home to subsistence farmers.

The Operational Support Services Unit (OSSU), a force notorious for its brutality, ordered Simelane’s grandchild, Andile Mamba, 15, to vacate the tuckshop Mamba and others had been cleaning on 1 July at around 8am. 

“One of them just shot at me on the back with one bullet,” Mamba says. “I don’t even know why they shot at me.” He can no longer walk. “I used to play football, but now I am unable to go play,” Mamba says

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“It wasn't so easy though, ending the war. A war is a huge fire; the ashes from it drift far, and settle slowly.” @MargaretAtwood's The Blind Assassin
Africa




‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag




'War makes for bitter men. Heartless and savage men,” Abiy said in his Nobel prize lecture. @FT @davidpilling 



The falcon cannot hear the falconer;


Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.



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Over the last week information on considerable Eritrean troops deployments in West Tigray is confirmed by both #TDF and international sources. @KjetilTronvoll
Africa



Thread: Are #Eritrea / #EDF preparing a new military offensive against #Tigray #Ethiopia? Over the last week information on considerable Eritrean troops deployments in West Tigray is confirmed by both #TDF and international sources.



9-JUL-2021 :: His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence.

https://j.mp/3Bk45Gj

In the Horn of Africa the Prime Minister of Ethiopia who cloaked his messianic zeal in the language of Mandela 1994 is unlikely to last more than twelve months.

His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence. 

The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.
If I could I would be limit short the Ethiopian Birr [It trades at 60 to the $ on the black market]



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Seen from #Asmara, the war in #Ethiopia is a “live or die” moment for #IsaiasAfwerki: if #TDF-#OLA alliance is successful to bring about a political transition, z #Eritrea/n regime will be vulnerable. @KjetilTronvoll
Africa



Seen from #Asmara, the war in #Ethiopia is a “live or die” moment for #IsaiasAfwerki: if #TDF-#OLA alliance is successful to bring about a political transition, z #Eritrea/n regime will be vulnerable. Hence, Isaias needs to sacrifice more people to ensure z survival of Abiy. 4

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This is the technology Abiy wants from Turkey. @RAbdiAnalyst
Africa


Turkey widely regarded major drone power. Its deployment of high-tech AI drones (Kargu 2) to Libya was gamechanger. The Kargu is small, ideal for mountainous terrain, attack in swarms, pack lethal punch, deadly against infantry.

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Unconfirmed reports say OLA has blocked the Moyale-Addis Highway. @RAbdiAnalyst
Africa







The national mobilization and war recruitment have the echoes of the final days of the Derg regime. @AwashPost H/T @rhaplord 


TPLF spokesperson @reda_getachew told me Tigrayan forces are prepared to take the fight to Addis Ababa in order to end the blockade on Tigray. @cathkemi


We interviewed TPLF spokesperson @reda_getachew on the expansion of the conflict in northern Ethiopia. He told me Tigrayan forces are prepared to take the fight to Addis Ababa in order to end the blockade on Tigray. The Govt denies enforcing a siege. 





Conclusions

Addis could be Kabul 2.0



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"Unless there is a dramatic change soon, Ethiopia could be on a path to state failure," said Mr @Dibjir @BBCWorld
Africa





"Five years ago the Ethiopian army was the most powerful in the region. The fact it couldn't secure Tigray shows how the situation has deteriorated."




November 8, 2020 @PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.






November 8, 2020 Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance



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KCB Group says it is currently engaging in acquisition talks with two banks in Democratic Republic of Congo. @moneyacademyKE
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Says it will settle on a single purchase preferably one with a “national footprint, available in all provinces”. — Bloomberg

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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