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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 24th of August 2021

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First Kenya sunset. Home to one of the planet’s largest white and black rhino populations, @lewa_wildlife is a UNESCO World Heritage Site @VernYipDesigns

First Kenya sunset. So happy to be back in the expansive African wilderness. Home to one of the planet’s largest white and black rhino populations, @lewa_wildlife is a UNESCO World Heritage Site that’s been critical to the survival of these beautiful creatures. Great cause!

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[9-16] 23-AUG-2021 :: ZigZag
Law & Politics

As the World watched events unfold in Afghanistan, it certainly felt like the curtain was falling on the once ‘’unipolar’’ Power. 

The Optics spoke its own narrative and until the surreal Biden Press conference, the US was strangely absent and frankly wrong footed. 

The newly minted Taliban 2.0 had obviously been coached at great expense but the bottom line is this was one ignominious US Exit. 

After two decades of US occupation, the Taliban [ [who] are predominately Deobandi, not Wahhabi @aaolomi] stormed the Country in two weeks flat. 

There is simply no come-back from that. The Taliban moved at viral and exponential speed.

The Biden Presser was a ‘’Wizard of Oz’’ moment
the point when the curtain was lifted in the Wizard of Oz and the Wizard revealed to be ‘’an ordinary conman from Omaha who has been using elaborate magic tricks and props to make himself seem “great and powerful”

The always belligerent Editor-in-chief of the Global Times | 环球时报总编辑
Hu Xijin 胡锡进 @HuXijin_GT immediately connected the Exit from Afghanistan to Taiwan.
Hu Xijin 胡锡进 @HuXijin_GT
Aug 16
After the fall of the Kabul regime, the Taiwan authorities must be trembling. Don’t look forward to the US to protect them. Taipei officials need to quietly mail-order a Five-Star Red Flag from the Chinese mainland. It will be useful one day when they surrender to the PLA.

The Global Times weighed in as well
What we have watched is the shearing of US’ special status. It’s a geopolitical ‘’Tipping Point’’ moment.
Hong Kong was surrendered a while back

Joshua Wong told German Media “Hongkong ist das neue Berlin”

The absolutely abject and pathetic response to COVID-19 foretold what is happening now. 

It is clear that COVID-19 was a Virus manufactured in Wuhan and once released by ‘’accident’’ or design was deliberately propagated world- wide.

The Fact that it is still being debated informs us that the Game is Up

Of course, Afghanistan remains a ‘’Ball of fire’’ and chucking the Ball to others to catch is not a Bad Call all things considered.
“The two nations represent systems of governance that are diametrically opposed,” George Soros wrote last week, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. “Relations between China and the U.S. are rapidly deteriorating and may lead to war.”
Xi Jinping is on a winning streak ever since he started salami slicing his then adversary President Obama. It is inevitable he will roll the dice on Taiwan and imminently.

Europe is triangulated and sidelined more concerned about how many Volkswagens they can sell and so is Wall Street in point of fact.
There is a fluidity at the Apex of World Power and this brings friction, increases risk and creates ‘’Geopolitical’’ Tail Risks across the spectrum.

Lets turn briefly to COVID-19 because I sense an Inflexion Point
#COVID19 cases exponentially growing 0.32% per day with avg 654,706 daily new cases up 6.9% past 2wks. @jmlukens

9,803 avg deaths per day (1.52% daily mortality rate) up 5.3% past 2wks with 4,399,380 total deaths growing on average 0.22% per day
I think the Spread improvement [Cases versus Deaths] has run its course.
As to the goal of reaching herd immunity—vaccinating so many people that the virus simply has nowhere to go
“With the emergence of Delta, I realized that it’s just impossible to reach that,” says Müge Çevik, an infectious disease specialist at the University of St. Andrews. Via @ScienceMagazine @kakape
But Holmes was startled. “This virus has gone up three notches in effectively a year and that, I think, was the biggest surprise to me”
The 1918–19 influenza pandemic also appears to have caused more serious illness as time went on, says Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist at Roskilde

University who studies past pandemics. “Our data from Denmark suggests it was six times deadlier in the second wave.”
“Many still see Alpha and Delta as being as bad as things are ever going to get,” he says. “It would be wise to consider them as steps on a possible trajectory that may challenge our public health response further.”
Some dangerous variants may only be possible if the virus hits on a very rare, winning combination of mutations, Eugene Koonin told me. 

“But with all these millions of infected people, it may very well find that combination.” @kakape 

We have now crossed peak Vaccine Euphoria

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23-AUG-2021 :: The Fact that it is still being debated informs us that the Game is Up

The absolutely abject and pathetic response to COVID-19 foretold what is happening now. 

It is clear that COVID-19 was a Virus manufactured in Wuhan and once released by ‘’accident’’ or design was deliberately propagated world- wide.

The Fact that it is still being debated informs us that the Game is Up

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“Has the narrative surrounding Covid19 at the Wuhan lab been engineered?’

“I think probably the whole area of openly suggesting intent on the part of the Chinese,” he says, adding, “and featuring certain elements in the media who obscured the narrative or reinvented it. I’m disappointed that we let some people off the hook in the final film”.

“I think our conclusion is clearly that Covid9 is not Zoonotic, and that it leaked from the Wuhan lab. Equally, I’m confident that we show the NIH [National Institutes of Health, the primary agency of the United States government responsible for biomedical and public health research] got a gain of function from its involvement with the Wuhan research”.

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08-MAR-2021 :: Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19

.@FHeisbourg François Heisbourg: «Le coronavirus, c’est un Tchernobyl chinois à la puissance dix»
First, they staged their "exemplary handling" of the pandemic in a very loud manner, in order to avoid interest in the regime.
And then they severely punished countries that demanded an impartial international investigation, made up of the best experts. 
Australia, which had insisted on the need for transparency, was imposed economic sanctions and a block on its imports.
The debate on the origin of the virus remains totally open, fundamental and potentially explosive.
Controlling the COVID19 Narrative, suppressing the Enquiry, parlaying the situation into one of singular advantage marks a singular moment and Xi Jinping has exhibited Chinese dominance over multiple theatres from the Home Front, the International Media Domain, the ‘’Scientific’’ domain over which he has achieved complete ownership and where any dissenting view is characterized as a ‘’conspiracy theory’’
It remains a remarkable achievement.

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23-AUG-2021 :: ZigZag
World Of Finance

[18-22] The Markets
In one of his books Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb described his Trading Strategy as one which lost money 364 days of the year but made more on one day than was lost in those preceding 364 days. 

He makes the point that Few People or Trading Desks have the mental stamina to last those 364 days for that extreme one day pay out.

I think we have reached this point now where we are picking up nickels and dimes in front of an oncoming Train.

Paul Tudor-Jones

"I love trading macro. If trading is like chess, then macro is like 3D chess. You never have a complete information set or information edge the way analysts can have when trading individual securities." Paul Tudor Jones @NeckarValue
"When it comes to macro, you cannot rely solely on fundamentals; you have to be a tape reader, something of a lost art form''
''While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it."
While I'm a staunch advocate of higher education, there is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.
"This is the BIGGEST bubble I have seen in my career."— Stanley Druckenmiller @TihoBrkan

"As a macro investor, my job for 30 years was to anticipate changes in the economic trends that were not expected by others - and therefore not yet reflected in securities prices". Stanley Druckenmiller http://bit.ly/2M1fCRp
I think we are the Cusp of the Moment
The Music has been playing for Eternity and its about to stop
tabla wizard, Aref Durvesh @thenitinsawhney

Mr. @coloradotravis sees a 2008 timeline
The wave appears to be aligning itself with seasonality, which means we are coming closer and closer to the in-year 2008 timeline (though still slightly ahead). @coloradotravis 

As I said on the 19-JUL-2021 :: However, there are many discordant notes.
The global recovery among 'advanced' countries seems to be in perilous shape. @Mayhem4Markets 

Brent's down 7 days straight, its worst streak since early2018. @PaulWallace123 

As I said on the 19-JUL-2021 :: However, there are many discordant notes.
Asian stocks are tanking @CryptoWhale

On 09-MAY-2021 :: The Lotos-eaters However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.
I believe we are now headed to < than 0.5% $TNX H/T @EventHorizon618

Bonds, beautiful as ever. Gettin' ready to drop it like it's dubstep. @coloradotravis 

19-JUL-2021 :: limit long the US Ultra Bond because I recall Japan and the words of that iconic Eagles song ''Hotel California''
Mirrors On The Ceiling The Pink champagne on ice
And we become Japan: a nation pushing on strings, to no avail. @coloradotravis 

And the more of it we do, the less potent our monetary creating abilities. Velocity falls.
This is why bonds are an amazing trade here. @coloradotravis 

It's because of the dual nature of 1) pinning the front end, and 2) the cash deluge creating *downward* pressure on front end rates were the pin to be released. @coloradotravis 

Either they continue the pinning, or they don't. If they pull the pin (highly unlikely), the curve collapses.
And if they don't pull the pin, the resulting stability of the carry trade along the curve incrementally flattens the curve as idle cash seeks the freely available carry from buying and holding longer durations to (well... more like toward) maturity. @coloradotravis 

Therefore, I am clearing the decks and just holding
$TNX 20%
Ultras (#UB_F) 50% 

$NFLX 10%
Short ZAR 10% 

Cash 10%

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1744

Dollar Index 92.979

Japan Yen 109.78

Swiss Franc 0.9129

Pound 1.3746

Aussie 0.7237

India Rupee 74.118

South Korea Won 1166.365

Brazil Real 5.3815

Egypt Pound 15.7004

South Africa Rand 15.0715

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 26 days @ReutersGraphics

Togo Benin & Mauritus at peak Morocco 94% 

''After several weeks of steep increases, we are now starting to see a levelling off of the third wave on the continent." - Dr @MoetiTshidi @WHOAFRO

"There have now been more than 7.3 million #COVID19 cases on the African continent and 184,000 people have sadly lost their lives. ''

19-JUL-2021 :: So, my Point is this, our Attention span is short and Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.

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Study based on random morgue data from Lusaka shows mortality burden is much higher than expected confirming the theory that LMIC were "spared" is largely incorrect @CovidSerology

New study based on random morgue data from Lusaka shows mortality burden is much higher than expected values based on age-adjusted data and also above values recorded in HICs further confirming the theory that LMIC were "spared" is largely incorrect 

Drinking the Kool-Aid 

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President Rajoelina @SE_Rajoelina is driving Madagascar into another political crisis @TheAfricaReport

Several high-ranking army and police officials in Madagascar have been arrested following an alleged assassination attempt on President Andry Rajoelina.
Moina Spooner, from The Conversation Africa, asked political expert, Solofo Randrianja, to provide insights into Rajoelina’s tenure and what could have contributed to these developments.
Madagascar has a history of political turmoil. What are the main causes?
Madagascar’s tumultuous political history has been characterised by several coups. 

Since independence from France in 1960, there have been four major political crises in 1972, 1991, 2002, 2009. Each of these resulted in a change of regime and constitution. They also caused serious economic crises.
The political crisis usually starts in the same way: strikes and street demonstrations in urban areas. But these movements aren’t typically organised by the opposition, they are mostly driven by the collapse from inside of the government and its supporters.
This is caused by a long hold on power – as we saw with Didier Ratsiraka, the longest-serving President of Madagascar – which is characterised by corruption, nepotism and the erosion of democracy. 

An additional aggravating element, since 1972, has been the participation of elements of the army in politics.
Based on these factors, Madagascar seems to be heading towards a new political crisis, much more complex and probably more violent than the previous ones. This is because Rajoelina has demonstrated his determination to stay in power, and has used extra-constitutional methods in the past.
Rumours of an attempted assassination reveal that all isn’t well. It’s important to note that this isn’t the first time that Rajoelina has claimed a threat to his leadership or life. 

During his time in office which started in 2009, Rajoelina has claimed to have been threatened by at least four attacks.
We can’t be sure whether this latest “threat” is an excuse for the President to further consolidate power and suppress the opposition, or whether it reveals a deep dissatisfaction with the country’s political direction. Either way, it reveals deep political turmoil.

How has Madagascar fared under Rajoelina’s leadership?

Rajoelina has a background in the entertainment, media and advertising industry. He decided to go into politics in 2007 after a clash with authorities over advertising hoardings in the Malagasy capital, Antananarivo.
Backed by a few key figures in Madagascar’s wealthy elite, Rajoelina became mayor of Antananarivo and a leading opposition figure to Marc Ravalomanana’s government.
In 2009 street demonstrations were organised against Ravalomanana’s government, which Rajoelina accused of misappropriating public funds and dictatorship. 

When these failed to bring change, a military regiment organised a coup and Rajoelina declared himself president. 

He promised to draft a new constitution and hold elections within two years. 

The military’s unconstitutional transfer of power to Rajoelina was widely condemned both locally and internationally.
Amid allegations of electoral fraud and poor voter turnout, Rajoelina became Madagascar’s leader once more in 2018. 

This followed a campaign that was supported by a powerful media and propaganda machine. 

The main daily newspapers in Madagascar backed Rajoelina, as well as several radio stations.
Under Rajoelina’s leadership, Madagascar has suffered. His campaign was largely based on impossible populist promises which he’s not been able to fulfil because they’re so far-fetched.
One of these is the ambitious “Initiative for the Emergence of Madagascar” which has disappeared from policymaking. Another is the construction of cable cars in Antananarivo.

Rajoelina has made some questionable economic choices. For instance, he opened up the country to exploitation by his cronies. One example of this was the unbridled cutting and illegal sale of Rosewood. 

Rajoelina first led the country between 2009 and 2013 – the most intensive period of Rosewood logging in the country’s history.

Madagascar is a naturalist’s paradise. More than 80% of the flora and fauna on the island can be found nowhere else on earth

Rosewood, which provides Madagascar’s unique lemurs with important habitats, is extremely valuable and is highly trafficked. 

Though its trade has been banned in Madagascar for decades, under Rajoelina, the government has issued brief exemptions and has even arrested activists trying to stop illegal trade.

Rajoelina has also taken on several vanity projects which include the construction of colossal sports stadiums. These don’t reflect the needs of the country – deemed one of the poorest countries in the world.
In 2019, around 75% of the population was estimated to live below the international poverty line of living on $1.90 a day. 

Madagascar also has the world’s fourth-highest rate of chronic malnutrition – almost one child in two, under five years of age, suffers from stunting.
There are also signs that the democratic space is shrinking and the government has become dysfunctional. Rajoelina recently sacked all of his ministers.
In addition to this Rajoelina has done a terrible job in managing the Covid-19 pandemic. 

He touted a scientifically unproven herbal remedy – Covid-19 organics – as a cure to Covid-19 and went so far as to start producing it in capsule form. 

It’s within this context that news of plans for an attempted coup, or assassination in some reports, broke out.
What can be done to ensure the situation doesn’t get worse?
It’s hard to say because it seems inevitable. The country is in a deep state of economic crisis. 

The ideal solution would be a reform of institutions such as empowering local authorities and grassroots communities, involving them in decision making – the question is, who would undertake it?
The opposition does not seem to be an alternative on its own. Most political parties lack the financial resources to engage in competition. Opposition figures have also endured harassment.
The almost usual pattern – of using a motley coalition to get rid of those who are currently in office – seems to be the only way that there’ll be change. 

Sadly, once in power, it would probably provide a semblance of stability until the next crisis, when the ruling coalition starts to fall apart.The Conversation
Solofo Randrianja, Professor, University of Toamasina

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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

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‘Hunger Season’ Looms in Madagascar With Worst Famine Since 1981 @business

Southern Madagascar is on the brink of a severe humanitarian crisis as hundreds of thousands struggle with the impact of a prolonged drought, according to United Nations officials.
“The hunger season is coming,” Issa Sanogo, the UN resident coordinator on the Indian Ocean island nation said on Saturday. 

People may be left “without the means to eat, without money to pay for health services, or to send their children to school, to get clean water, and even to get seeds to plant for the next agricultural season,” he said.
Insufficient rains since 2019 in the Grand Sud or the Big South of Madagascar have caused the most severe drought since 1981. 

People have resorted to desperate survival measures such as “eating locusts, raw red cactus fruits or wild leaves” according to ReliefWeb, an information service provided by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Madagascar is the world’s largest grower of vanilla, most of which is produced in the northeast of the world’s fourth-largest island. 

Citizens in the south rely on subsistence agriculture from small landholdings, according to reports from the World Bank.

“The south is vulnerable because it’s dry, while the north has tropical rain-forests” said Shelley Thakral, a spokeswoman for the United Nations World Food Programme, which is looking to raise $78.6 million in emergency aid to feed people in the region. 

Residents haven’t managed to produce crops and with the “start of the lean season approaching” the situation can get worse, she said. 

A report published this month stated that more than 500,000 children younger than five years of age face the risk of malnutrition between May 2021 and April 2022. 

“The drought has gone on for longer than expected, and the funds received are insufficient to cover current and future needs,” Sanogo said. 

“We must act now: annual crops are a problem that will probably become a new crisis in the next agricultural season.”

Turning to Africa

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“It wasn't so easy though, ending the war. A war is a huge fire; the ashes from it drift far, and settle slowly.” @MargaretAtwood's The Blind Assassin

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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#Ethiopia: 48hrs after PM @AbiyAhmedAli visited President Erdogan, Turkey has delivered a consignment of Bayraktar TB2 combat drones.

Turkish combat drones changed the tide of war in favour of Azerbaijan during 2020 war wt Armenia. #ENDF to use UACVs against #TPLF-#TDF #OLA!


'War makes for bitter men. Heartless and savage men,” Abiy said in his Nobel prize lecture. @FT @davidpilling 

“This is a declaration to turn civilians into combatants that will further plunge the country into a genocidal war & create bad blood between peoples for generations to come & an economic free-fall,” said ⁦@DrMehari @nytimes @Lattif

Heavy fighting, including artillery fire, has been reported in the Amhara, Oromia and Afar regions, according to an internal United Nations security document seen by The New York Times. 

#Eritrea's forces have re-entered #Ethiopia in "large numbers" after withdrawing in June, @SecBlinken says. @markc_anderson

Seen from #Asmara, the war in #Ethiopia is a “live or die” moment for #IsaiasAfwerki: if #TDF-#OLA alliance is successful to bring about a political transition, z #Eritrea/n regime will be vulnerable. @KjetilTronvoll

Seen from #Asmara, the war in #Ethiopia is a “live or die” moment for #IsaiasAfwerki: if #TDF-#OLA alliance is successful to bring about a political transition, z #Eritrea/n regime will be vulnerable. Hence, Isaias needs to sacrifice more people to ensure z survival of Abiy. 4

9-JUL-2021 :: The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.


In the Horn of Africa the Prime Minister of Ethiopia who cloaked his messianic zeal in the language of Mandela 1994 is unlikely to last more than twelve months.

His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence. 

The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.
If I could I would be limit short the Ethiopian Birr [It trades at 60 to the $ on the black market]

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What is clear is that Abiy’s campaign to centralize power in the capital is in tatters.

With many regions seeking more devolution, the conflict threatens the integrity of the state, according to a key Western diplomat, who asked not to be identified citing the sensitivity of the matter.

Abiy’s authority is at serious risk unless he can find a way to force the Tigrayans back. The Nobel peace prize winner has awakened more enemies than just the TPLF.
“We have one thing in common and that is we are fighting the same enemy,” said Kumsa Diriba, the commander-in-chief of the Oromo Liberation Army.

November 8, 2020 Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance

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Finally I want to show you why Frontier markets are all about Politics

Zambia The benchmark 2024 securities rebounded from around 42 cents, climbing to more than 75 cents this week after Hakainde Hichilema’s victory in the presidential election on Aug. 12.

Compared to Ethiopia

Now that would have been a great Pairs Trade.

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Here is the US$ value (as of Aug 23) of #SDR select African economies received as part of the new allocation. #IMFAfrica @IMFAfrica

Angola  – $1.0B
Côte d’Ivoire – $884M
Ghana – $1.0B
Kenya – $738M
Nigeria – $3.3B
Senegal – $440M
South Africa – $4.1B

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.@StanChartKE Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd. reports H1 2021 Earnings EPS +38.38% here
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           134.75
Total Shares Issued:          343510571.00
Market Capitalization:        46,288,049,442
EPS:             13.95
PE:                 9.659

Standard Chartered Kenya Limited reports H1 2021 Earnings versus H1 2020

HY Total Assets 345.646341b versus 327.198511b +5.638% 

HY Loans and Advances to Customers [net] 130.275654b versus 134.317139b

HY Kenya Government Securities 98.686940b versus 101.176614b

HY Customer Deposits 278.186884b versus 256.496288b

HY Total Interest Income 11.032585b versus 11.932242b

HY Total Interest Expenses 1.917199b versus 2.538293b

HY Net Interest Income 9.115386b versus 9.393949b

HY Total Non Interest Income 4.997609b versus 4.402567b

HY Total Operating Income 14.112995b versus 13.796516b

HY Loan Loss Provision 638.541m versus 1.624970b

HY Staff Costs 3.216292b versus 3.341779b

HY Other Operating Expenses 2.490384b versus 2.825871b

HY Total Other Operating Expenses 7.315323b versus 8.691204b

HY Profit before Tax after exceptional Items 6.797672b versus 5.105312b

HY Profit after Tax and exceptional Items 4.879064b versus 3.233063b

HY Total comprehensive income for the period 4.950754b versus 3.923911b

HY EPS 12.69 versus 9.17 +38.38%

Cash & Cash Equivalents 57.205811b 

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Standard Chartered Kenya [@StanChartKE] H1 2021 results: @MwangoCapital
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

-Customer deposits up 8.5%
-Loan book down 3%
-Total assets up 6%
-Net interest income down 3%
-Loan loss provisions down 60%
-PAT up 51% to Ksh 4.8B
-EPS Ksh 12.69 [2020: 9.17]
-No interim dividend


Whilst Total assets expanded +5.638% The Customer Loan Book declined marginally.

60% reduction in loan loss provisions.

The Implied Forward PE makes it now cheap versus its Peers. 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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August 2021

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