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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 01st of October 2021

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Macro Thoughts
World Of Finance

We have entered a Phase Shift in the markets best described below 

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23-AUG-2021 :: Paul Tudor-Jones "I love trading macro. If trading is like chess, then macro is like 3D chess''
World Of Finance

Paul Tudor-Jones
"I love trading macro. If trading is like chess, then macro is like 3D chess. You never have a complete information set or information edge the way analysts can have when trading individual securities." Paul Tudor Jones @NeckarValue
"When it comes to macro, you cannot rely solely on fundamentals; you have to be a tape reader, something of a lost art form''
''While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it."
While I'm a staunch advocate of higher education, there is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.

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He said that snakes had been known to bite their own tails Roberto Bolaño Last Evenings on Earth

He said that snakes had even been known to swallow themselves whole & if you see a snake in process of swallowing itself you better run because sooner or later something bad is going to happen some dislocation of reality

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52-Hertz is the loneliest whale on our planet. It roams the world's deepest oceans looking for a mate but it's unable to find one because no other whale is capable of understanding it's 52 Hertz call @Rainmaker1973

First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.”
Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.”
Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle.
In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:
The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ...
The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him.
If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod —
There’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. 

In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.
This is intergalactic Darwinism.

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The post-Trump honeymoon is long gone. Now the image Biden has tried to present of himself as a competent technocrat seems absurd as he shows signs of fatigue and mental exhaustion. @spectator
Law & Politics

The post-Trump honeymoon is long gone. Now the image Biden has tried to present of himself as a competent technocrat seems absurd as he shows signs of fatigue and mental exhaustion. 

His public performances on the world stage are increasingly embarrassing. It’s becoming ever more obvious that his handlers don’t want him answering questions from the press. That’s not healthy and voters can see it.
If the President and his administration cannot halt the drift, or reverse the creeping impression of terrifying incompetence, the Democratic party can expect a battering in the mid-term elections next year.

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Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 28 September 2021 @WHO

Globally, the numbers of weekly COVID-19 cases and deaths continued to decline. 

Over 3.3 million new cases and over 55 000 new deaths were reported during the week of 20 – 26 September 2021, decreases of 10% as compared to the previous week for both cases and deaths.

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19-JUL-2021 :: COVID-19

The Virus remains unresolved.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1578
Dollar Index 94.312
Japan Yen 111.21
Swiss Franc 0.93212
Pound 1.3453
Aussie 0.7209
India Rupee 74.251
South Korea Won 1187.205
Brazil Real 5.4434
Egypt Pound 15.7259
South Africa Rand 15.121

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Africa has to date received 200 million vaccine doses and administered 71% of these. Sixty million people are fully vaccinated, which represents just over 4% of the population." - Dr @RichardMihigo #COVID19 @WHOAFRO

The African Region reported over 87 000 new cases and over 2500 new deaths, a 12% decrease and a 5% increase respectively as compared to the previous week. 

Since the latest peak early July, the number of weekly cases has been decreasing continuously for almost three months; while weekly deaths remain elevated. 

Approximately one third of countries (29%; 14/49) in the Region reported an increase in new cases, ranging from 17 to 61%, highlighting the heterogeneity of trends in the Region.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

United Republic of Tanzania (24 307 new cases, a country which has not reported regularly)

South Africa (15 627 new cases; 26.3 new cases per 100 000; a 40% decrease)

Ethiopia (8842 new cases; 7.7 new cases per 100 000; a 5% decrease). 

The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (885 new deaths; 1.5 new deaths per 100 000 population; a 35% decrease)

United Republic of Tanzania (664 new deaths this week)

Ethiopia (254 new deaths; <1 new deaths per 100 000; a 22% increase).

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Angola recorded 14,549 infections and 558 deaths during September. That’s a higher number of deaths than those caused by malaria for first time, health minister Silvia Lutucuta said

Angola recorded 14,549 infections and 558 deaths during September. That’s a higher number of deaths than those caused by malaria for first time, health minister Silvia Lutucuta said without providing details for malaria, which is widespread in the nation. 
Angola is recording a 13.3% positivity rate, and it reported 664 infections and 11 deaths on Thursday, bringing the cumulative cases to 57,247 and 1,548 deaths, Lutucuta said.

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Ethiopia to expel seven senior UN staff for 'meddling'. @AFP

Ethiopia said on Thursday it would expel seven senior UN officials for "meddling" in its affairs, ratcheting up worries over the humanitarian response in the war-torn and famine-threatened Tigray region.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "shocked" by the decision, expressed full confidence in his staff in Ethiopia and said the UN was engaging with the government "in the full expectation" that the officials would be allowed to return.
According to diplomats, an emergency UN Security Council meeting will be held behind closed doors midday on Friday to discuss the matter.
The White House condemned the ejections of the UN staffers "in the strongest possible terms" with Press Secretary Jen Psaki calling it "unprecedented action to expel the leadership of all of the United Nations organizations involved in ongoing humanitarian operations".
The expulsions, announced by the foreign ministry, came as Africa's second-most populous country held elections for dozens of federal parliamentary seats, the final round of voting before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed forms a new government next week.
The seven UN officials, including the local heads of the UN children's agency UNICEF and its humanitarian coordination office, have been declared "persona non grata" for "meddling in the internal affairs of the country", the ministry said in a statement published on its Facebook page.
"According to the letters addressed to each of the seven individuals listed below, all of them must leave the territory of Ethiopia within the next 72 hours," it said.
a US State Department spokesman told AFP last week that access to essential supplies and services was "being denied by the Ethiopian government" and that there were "indications of a siege".

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating

As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.

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Witch-hunt murders surge in Democratic Republic of Congo @guardian @AFP

Murders of women accused of witchcraft have surged in a troubled eastern province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, according to officials and rights campaigners.

Eight women have reportedly been burned to death or lynched in three districts in South Kivu province this month.
Nelly Adidja, of the Association of Women in the Media NGO, said: “We recorded 324 accusations of witchcraft for the June to September period.”
In Kalehe district 114 cases have been recorded, including five women who were burned to death and four who were hauled away to unknown destinations by so-called self-defence militias.
South Kivu lies in an arc of three provinces that for years have been in the grip of armed groups, many of them the legacy of regional wars that were fought a quarter of a century ago.
Bosco Muchukiwa, a director and professor of sociology at the Higher Institute of Rural Development in the provincial capital of Bukavu, said the surge in witch-hunt attacks stemmed from a vacuum in governance.
“There is a resurgence of the phenomenon because the state has been failing in its core missions – the police and justice system are not doing their job,” he said.
The attacks were being fuelled by bajakazi – bogus preachers or self-described psychics, mostly women, who lived locally and claimed to be able to detect witches, Muchukiwa said.
“It’s false. They don’t have any powers but they play on the gullibility of the people they manipulate in order to attract more followers, pump up their reputation and gain more clout in the village.”
“In 2014, provincial lawmakers approved an edict forbidding use of mob justice in South Kivu,” he said. 

However, the law was never applied “and it hasn’t been followed up with a proper awareness campaign among the public”.
Thadee Miderho, an administrative chief for Kabare territory, said six killings had been recorded since the start of the year, mainly women over 60 who had been designated as witches by bajakazi.
Two years ago, 11 accusers were jailed for six months, he said. “They were released after promising to change profession but some of them are secretly carrying on as before.”
Prosecutors say it is almost impossible to track down individuals who carry out the killings. 

“Whenever there is a case of mob justice, village chiefs say it was done ‘by the public’, and do not provide any names,” Miderho said.
Shasha Rubenga, a teacher and rights activist, said he saw a witch-hunt last month in Cifunzi, a village of about 2,000 people near Kahuzi-Biega national park.
“It was about 5am on a Monday. Young men were going around the village with a list that had the names of 19 women over the age of 65 who had been designated as witches by a prophetess,” he said.
Most of the women managed to flee from their homes, which were then destroyed. Others were saved by troops who fired shots into the air to disperse the crowd.
“But then I saw these youths grab hold of a neighbour whose name was Nyabadeux,” an elderly woman who had seven children. “She was beaten up, doused in petrol and set alight with a match,” Rubenga said.

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The Insanely Lucrative Pirate Stock Exchange In Somalia H/T @cobbo3

The earliest instance of modern stock trading occurred in Amsterdam with the Dutch East India Company. 

In order to raise capital, it sold shares to the public and paid dividends based on the success of its ventures, oftentimes involving voyages out to sea. 

To an extent, the Pirate Stock Exchange found in Somalia has managed to preserve a good deal of the Dutch East India Company’s original spirit.
In 2009 – long before the generation-defining popularisation of cryptocurrency, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) craze, and long before Elon Musk had any pull on Twitter to literally make/break a stock – the forgotten fishing town of Harardhere decided the local economy needed an overhaul. 

Located approximately 250 miles northeast of Mogadishu, commercial opportunities were few and far between. 

But as they collectively realised the Somalian government was preoccupied with quelling the burning embers of Islamist extremism, they collectively decided it was high time to capitalise on their #1 export: piracy.
You see, in a place like Harardhere, many would join a private gang simply to avoid a life of militancy, poverty, and petty theft. 

As you can imagine, in this capitalist society of ours where cash rules everything around us, the natural evolution to undertaking piracy out of necessity was to organise amongst themselves – and make an absolute killing from it. 

Thus the world’s first Pirate Stock Exchange was established.

While to this day, there are no credible statistics available to confirm the number of entities listed, 

The Wall Street Journal reported over 70 distinct maritime operations are listed on the Harardheere Pirate Stock Exchange. 

Similar to the days of the Dutch East India Company, when a pirate mission is successful, the investors who bankrolled said pirate mission earns a share of the total profits.

Back in 2011, the town which had been written off by the outside world became a place “crowded with luxury cars” seemingly overnight. It’ to the point where even district government officials (allegedly) receive a cut to fund schools, hospitals, and other public infrastructure.
“The shares are open to all and everybody can take part, whether personally at sea or on land by providing cash, weapons, or useful materials… We’ve made piracy a community activity,” a former pirate reveals to Reuters (via WSJ).
“Piracy-related business has become the main profitable economic activity in our area and as locals, we depend on their output,” says local security officer Mohamed Adam.

So how exactly do all the moving parts function? The enterprising individuals behind each pirate operation and potential investors apparently survey trading routes for prospects they believe will pay out. 

When something juicy comes along, they hit up the Pirate Stock Exchange to fund their expedition. Absolutely anyone can sponsor the journey with anything from food, kerosene, weapons, information, to regular old cash.

The pirates then attack container ships along the routes they’ve scoped for the most precious cargo there is: hostages. 

According to Invstr, sailor hostages earn these entrepreneurial criminals an average of US$4 million (AU$5.55 million) from Western shipping insurance per “job.” 

Once the $$$ is secured, everybody goes home relatively unscathed, and the process is repeated until there’s no money left to be made. 

One lady invested an RPG-7 towards such a venture and apparently received a hefty US$75,000 (UA$104,000) in return. 
“Piracy increases the cost of international commerce by $12 billion annually, and in Somalia alone, more than 20 vessels and 400 hostages are currently being held, according to the International Chamber of Commerce,” notes Avi Jorisch of The Wall Street Journal.
Invstr also (rightfully) points out given the illiquidity, wild lack of regulation, and “inevitable corruption,” you stand to lose a lot more than just money if SXit goes south. 

Plus, it goes without saying investors will feel the full brunt of market correction when the government eventually cracks down. But that might not even be the most pressing issue at hand.
While piracy was near an all-time high when the Harardheere Pirate Stock Exchange initially gained wider attention circa 2011, Statista outlines the heat has cooled off. 

Where 2010 and 2011 recorded 445 and 439 pirate attacks against ships worldwide, respectively, there was a considerable decline to 297 incidents in 2012. 

As of 2020, that figure had been reduced even further to 195. Did someone say “recession indicator”?

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2021

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