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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 18th of October 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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Here is a 'messy' chart that illustrates that it is a while ago since 2y rates (grey line) moved this much in a month @jnordvig
World Of Finance



(and it is very rare when rate policy is supposed to be on hold, as in 2013)

US 2Y rates moved more in the last month (23bp) than during the taper tantrum of 2013

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FX - THE ULTIMATE MACRO INDICATOR (SUBJECTIVE COMMENTARY) EURJPY - this chart is telling us something big is happening. @Bellehos
World Of Finance


We have to dive deeper into the charts (price) and find engagement zones.  This break has at least 600-700 bps left in it (upside).

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In one of his books Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb described his Trading Strategy
World Of Finance



In one of his books Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb described his Trading Strategy as one which lost money 364 days of the year but made more than on one day than was lost in those preceding 364 days. 

He makes the point that Few People or Trading Desks have the mental stamina to last those 364 days for that extreme one day pay out.

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There is no training – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. @ptj_official
World Of Finance


There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. 

There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1582
Dollar Index 94.086
Japan Yen 114.41
Swiss Franc 0.9248
Pound 1.3729
Aussie 0.7403
India Rupee 75.2090
South Korea Won 1185.77
Brazil Real 5.4598
Egypt Pound 15.7421
South Africa Rand 14.6347

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If anyone is waiting for demand destruction to cap #gasoline prices, it won't happen any time soon. As world got wealthier, price elasticity of demand dropped to near zero @IliaBouchouev
Commodities


If anyone is waiting for demand destruction to cap #gasoline prices, it won't happen any time soon. As world got wealthier, price elasticity of demand dropped to near zero which means that asymptotically price must go to infinity to generate any reduction in demand. 

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We built OECD overall oil stocks around 150 mmb in 2020 and so far this year through sept we have drawn 243 mmb. Add a big 4Q draw and we r empty everything just about everywhere @kingofcrude/
Commodities


We built OECD overall oil stocks around 150 mmb in 2020 and so far this year through sept we have drawn 243 mmb. Add a big 4Q draw and we r empty everything just about everywhere which is what the mkt is saying. Structure is exploding higher!

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Avocado Glut Swamps Australia as Lockdowns Keep Brunchgoers Away @markets
Commodities



Australia is swimming in avocados thanks to bumper harvests and months of stay-at-home orders that have kept people away from cafe brunches.
Once considered a symbol of lavishness on the brunch menu, avocado prices in Australia more than halved from around A$3 ($2.21) a piece to around A$1 this year -- a trend that looks set to stay.
“It’s just the beginning,” said John Tyas, chief executive officer of industry group Avocados Australia, who forecasts production for this year to be about 65% higher than last year.
Avocado supplies in Australia have soared as farmers planted significantly more trees in recent years in response to strong consumer demand for the crop, which can grow all year round in Australia. 

Many of those new plantings are only just now coming to fruition amid almost perfect conditions across the country, Tyas added. 

Western Australia is likely to post a state record for the upcoming avocado crop this year, while the country is poised to produce around 170,000 tons of avocados in 2026, almost double the amount in 2020, according to Avocados Australia. 

That surge in production comes at the same time as the pandemic, which has seen Australia impose some of the toughest and longest lockdown measures in the world. 

Despite a ramped-up nationwide advertising campaign to get Australians to eat more avocados, consumption has suffered due to the closures of restaurants and cafes, which accounts for some 20% of the overall avocado market, Tyas said. 

Some of Australia’s avocados are finding their way to Asian markets including Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and Hong Kong, where demand for healthy foods is soaring thanks in part to the pandemic. 

The drop in prices is also making Australian exports more attractive.
While the sharp drop in prices has been a cause for celebration for consumers, things have been so dire for producers that some farmers say they want to exit the industry altogether due to the likelihood of the glut continuing into the future. 

Many growers are supplying at cost or below cost of production.
“It’s definitely on some people’s minds as to whether it’s going to be viable for them going forward. They can weather one year like this, but if this is ongoing, I mean the pricing purely, it’s just not sustainable the way it is at the moment,” Tyas said.

Domestic demand in Australia is also likely to pick up as lockdowns start to lift. New South Wales, the most populous state, eased restrictions on Oct. 11 after 107 days of lockdown. 

The upcoming Christmas season and warmer weather in Australia will also see demand for avocados improving, said Tyas, adding that consumers “don’t need to hold back at all” because of the depressed prices.
Referring to the trope that people are unable to afford property because they’ve spent their money on smashed avocados, Tyas said: “They can get their housing deposit together and splash out on avocados as well.”

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The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy.
Commodities


The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.

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African Region .@WHO regional overviews Epidemiological week 4-10 October 2021
Africa



African Region
Since mid-July, the African Region has shown a constant decline in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, with over 33 000 new cases and over 1200 new deaths reported last week, a 32% and a 34% decrease respectively as compared to the previous week. 

While the majority of countries (35/49; 71%) reported a decrease in new weekly cases, seven countries reported an increase, with Chad (by 54%) reporting the greatest increase. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

Ethiopia (6061 new cases; 5.3 new cases per 100 000; a 15% decrease)

South Africa (5884 new cases; 9.9 new cases per 100 000; a 39% decrease)

Cameroon (3096 new cases; 11.7 new cases per 100 000; a 55% decrease).
Concerning new weekly deaths, 75% of countries in the Region reported a decline whereas there was a marked increase observed in Senegal (by 125%) and Mali (by 100%). 

The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (539 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; a 28% decrease)

Ethiopia (275 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; a 10% decrease)

Cameroon (58 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; a 36% decrease).

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Hundreds protest in Sudan's capital against government. @MArchAfrica
Africa



Conclusions

Counter revolutionary forces remain a threat. 

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And now we have two visions of the Future
Africa


And now we have two visions of the Future. One Vision played out on our screens, the Protestors could have been our Wives, our Children, our Daughters and Sons.
The Other Vision is that of MBS, MBZ and Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw. 

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Thousands rally in Sudan’s capital to demand military rule @guardian
Africa



Thousands of pro-military protesters have rallied in central Khartoum, vowing not to leave until the government is dissolved in a threat to Sudan’s transition to civilian rule.

The protest on Saturday comes as Sudanese politics reels from divisions among the factions steering the rocky transition from two decades of dictatorship under president Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted by the army in April 2019 following weeks of mass protests.
Saturday’s protest was organised by a splinter faction of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), a civilian alliance which spearheaded the anti-Bashir protests and became a key plank of the transition.
“We need a military government, the current government has failed to bring us justice and equality,” said Abboud Ahmed, a 50-year-old protester.

The government’s supporters charged that the protest was orchestrated by sympathisers of the Bashir regime, which was dominated by Islamists and the military.
Protesters chanted “one army, one people” and “the army will bring us bread.”
“We are marching in a peaceful protest and we want a military government,” said housewife Enaam Mohamed.

Outside the presidential palace, the protesters chanted: “We will stay put where we are ... we want the dissolution of this government.”
Hamdok warned on Friday that the transition was facing its “worst and most dangerous” crisis.
The mainstream faction of the FFC said: “The current crisis is not related to dissolution of the government or not.
“It is engineered by some parties to overthrow the revolutionary forces ... paving the way for the return of remnants of the previous regime.”

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10-JUN-2019 :: The ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating.
Africa



As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.
Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.

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Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera expects to clinch a new financing deal with the International Monetary Fund in four to six months to help kick-start an economic revival. @business Next Africa
Africa


The accumulation of about $6 billion of debt is “choking the life out of an economy like ours,” with a large proportion of the budget going toward interest payments and civil servant wages, the president said in an interview.

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But Abiy Ahmed may find that even if he does win, and that isn’t a foregone conclusion given the setbacks suffered in recent months, the victory may be Pyrrhic. @business Next Africa
Africa


Ethiopia’s prime minister has begun a fresh offensive against rebel forces from the Tigray province.
But Abiy Ahmed may find that even if he does win, and that isn’t a foregone conclusion given the setbacks suffered in recent months, the victory may be Pyrrhic.
When the premier launched what he said would be a swift retaliatory strike against his opponents in the restive northern region almost a year ago, few could have imagined how quickly the reputation of the Nobel Peace Prize winning leader would unravel.

The war rekindled Ethiopian ethnic tensions beyond Tigray and has embarrassed the prime minister. 

After initial successes the regional capital of Mekelle was retaken by rebels.

Perhaps more importantly, it has thrown his vision for Ethiopia’s economic future into disarray.
The conflict has drawn international condemnation. The U.S. has warned it may impose sanctions following a report that the national airline transported weapons to Eritrea for use in the fighting in Tigray. 

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also described Ethiopia’s decision to expel UN representatives as “particularly disturbing.”
The Horn of Africa nation as recently as last year had strong ties with the U.S. and had been one of Africa’s fastest growing economies. 

21. It’s now joined a club of nine countries whose dollar bonds trade at a spread of more than 1,000 basis points over U.S. Treasuries, while interest in its long-awaited sale of telecom licenses has dwindled.
When he reflects on the conflict, Abiy may wonder: Was it really worth it?

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Another blow to Abiy, #TDF #tigray succeeded completely defeating z Abiy army for z 2nd time on all sides in terms of fighting in z Amhara & Afar regions! @BashirHashiysf
Africa

These are newly captured prisoners of ENDF   This is z second time  TDF destroyed #Ethiopian federal army in less than a year

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9-JUL-2021 :: His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence.
Africa





In the Horn of Africa the Prime Minister of Ethiopia who cloaked his messianic zeal in the language of Mandela 1994 is unlikely to last more than twelve months.
His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence.
The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.
If I could I would be limit short the Ethiopian Birr [It trades at 60 to the $ on the black market

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‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
Africa





The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
https://bit.ly/3Bk45Gj

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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Abiy to minsters & minsters of state: "In every ministry, green peppers & onions must be planted. This should be part of your job. Then you sell it to your employees. At a national-level, you reduce inflation". @GebrekirstosG
Africa





Abiy to minsters & minsters of state: "In every ministry, green peppers & onions must be planted. This should be  part of your job. Then you sell it to your employees. At a national-level, you reduce inflation".  The minsters took notes. (24:17 to 25:00)

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KABILA, TSHISEKEDI, AND THE WAR OF APPEARANCES By @jdlzw H/T @GEC_CRG & @HerewardHolland
Africa



Tshisekedi’s inauguration reminds us of the importance, at least since the time of Mobutu, of projecting images of strength, of a strong man, as part of political leadership.

In the DRC as elsewhere, leaders’ political power often lies, in part, in managing public perceptions (and therefore those of the political class) of that power.
His predecessor, Kabila, was able to project an aura of power, largely through his silence.
The rarity of his public appearances and speeches heightened the mystery surrounding him. 

All of this recalls an insight that the French historian and philosopher Michel Foucault, in a lecture at the Collège de France in February 1976, brought to understanding Thomas Hobbes’ Leviathan, and in particular his notion of the “war of all against all.” 

This idea, Foucault argued, is not simply about the state of nature among human beings before the creation of the State.
It persists even within the modern state itself. But, he warned, this is not a war with “weapons or fists,” nor “between savage forces that have been unleashed.”
Instead, this is a war of appearances, designed to make believe (faire croire) in one’s strength: 

“There are presentations, manifestations, signs, emphatic expressions, wiles, and deceitful expressions; there are traps, intentions disguised as their opposite, and worries disguised as certainties. We are in a theater where presentations are exchanged, in a relationship of fear in which there are no time limits; we are not really involved in a war.”

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07-JAN-2019 :: Joseph Kabila Kabange sporting a new sartorial look In one interview he alluded to Arnold Schwarzenegger's famous quote "I'll be back''
Africa


V.S. Naipaul, in A Bend in the River wrote “It isn’t that there’s no right and wrong here. There’s no right.”

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Kinshasa
Africa


According to a projection (2016) the population of Kinshasa will increase significantly, to 35 million by 2050, 58 million by 2075 and 83 million by 2100.

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.@RailaOdinga beats @WilliamsRuto as the oligarchs' favourite @Africa_Conf
Law & Politics


Central Province – President Kenyatta's home area – is now the swing region ahead of next year's elections

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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