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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 21st of October 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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Atlanta Fed now sees US econ on verge of contraction: @zerohedge
World Of Finance


"the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.5 percent, down from 1.2 percent on October 15."

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Implied volatility in Treasury yields is the highest relative to a gauge in equity volatility since March 2020. @lisaabramowicz1
World Of Finance

This highlights how despite divergent views on the exact path of benchmark rates, the consensus continues to be for U.S. stocks to grind higher.

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[REGIME CHANGE] There is no training – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. @ptj_official
World Of Finance


There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. 

There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.

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Treetops Hotel is a hotel in Aberdare National Park in Kenya near the township of Nyeri, 1,966 m (6,450 ft) above sea level on the Aberdare Range and in sight of Mount Kenya.
Africa

First opened in 1932 by Eric Sherbrooke Walker, it was built into the tops of the trees of Aberdare National Park as a treehouse, offering the guests a close view of the local wildlife. 

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A thread on the realms of the jinn @aaolomi
Misc.

In Islamic cosmology humanity is not alone in this world, but rather the world is shared with the jinn an invisible race of beings born of smokeless fire. Some places in the world are said to be especially connected to them. 

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Djinns [The Quran says that the Djinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching fire", They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear clearly to Djinn, as they can possess them]
Misc.


Djinns [The Quran says that the Djinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching fire", They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear clearly to Djinn, as they can possess them.

DJinn have the power to travel large distances at extreme speeds and are thought to live in remote areas - so now You Know]

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Jinn are deeply connected to the natural world and so many are said to live in trees, caves, and mountains. @aaolomi
Misc.


Popular advice warns people to not wander near trees at night to avoid mischievous jinn

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Certain mountains have a unique connection to jinn. @aaolomi
Misc.

Mount Qaf is a legendary homeland of the jinn. Said to exist at the edges of the known world the mountain is the home of the jinn king Gatshan and his court

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In Persianate sources the Pari are also said to live on Mount Qaf. @aaolomi
Misc.


We also hear of Paristan, the land of the Pari in South Asia.

Both are examples of how local ideas are incorporated into an Islamic cosmology

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Islands are also said to be unique homes of the jinn. @aaolomi
Misc.

The Ikwan al Safa tell a story of humans landing on an island and promptly overhunting the animals.
The animals take the humans to jinn court

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We find similar language in travelogues of special islands full of jinn and creatures of all sorts @aaolomi
Misc.

Al Qazwini mentions how islands in the Indian Ocean and near China are home to the jinn

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The Queen of Sheba is known as Bilqis, she is the daughter of a Yemeni King, Al Hadhad. @aaolomi
Misc.

He married the jinn princess known as Baltaqa or Ruwaha. Their daughter is Bilqis, making her part jinn. 

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The jinn are ambivalent beings capable of good and evil. Some however are forces of chaos with the power to wreak havoc. One such jinn is the Red Wind, Al Ahmar
Misc.


Al Ahmar is a force of great chaos, though technically part of the ordered hierarchy of angels and jinn @aaolomi

The deadliest of Al Ahmar’s associations is with the plague. It is traditionally believed that plagues can be caused by some jinn who generally fall under the domain of Al Ahmar or Muharriq

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"There is a world inside the world." Don DeLillo in his book Libra
Misc.


"There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us."

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"Economic growth and development have given the one-party regime what the late political scientist Samuel Huntington called “performance legitimacy'' @ProSyn @CK_Mandal
Law & Politics



"Economic growth and development have given the one-party regime what the late political scientist Samuel Huntington called “performance legitimacy.” But this could turn out to be the CPC’s downfall, if China faces a sharp enough economic slump." @ProSyn

Conclusions

However I incline to the view that Xi is actually prepared to take a lot more short term pain for long term Gain 

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Chinese and Russian warships jointly crossed the Tsugaru Strait into the Pacific Ocean on Mon in their 1st joint maritime patrol, @globaltimesnews
Law & Politics


Right after China and Russia wrapped up a joint naval exercise in the Sea of Japan on Sunday, 10 powerful warships from the two countries switched to the next mission and sailed through the Tsugaru Strait into the Pacific Ocean on Monday in their first joint maritime patrol, which experts said on Tuesday could see the joint task force encircle Japan or approach the US. 

The joint patrol displays a high level of political and military mutual trust that exists between China and Russia in terms of safeguarding regional peace and stability, at a time when the US is ganging up with its allies like Japan and Australia and interfering in and destabilizing Asia-Pacific affairs.

Conclusions 

The Putin XI two step.

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#Pakistan ISPR: The Navy successfully detected and located an intruding #India submarine and blocked it from entering its waters, according to a statement @shen_shiwei
Law & Politics


#Pakistan  ISPR: The Navy successfully detected and located an intruding #India submarine and blocked it from entering its waters, according to a statement—the 3rd such reported incursion by an Indian submersible vessels since 2016.

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Why does @BorisJohnson keep on winning? How can this country be so stupid?' @spectator Nick Cohen
Law & Politics


For his critics, Boris Johnson offends the notion that the British are a sensible people so deeply we feel we no longer understand much of our country.
How, we wonder, can so many voters support an obvious phoney? How does a prime minister who makes it up as he goes along get away with it?
The fraudulent promises of rising living standards, the national self-harm of Brexit, the deliberate exacerbation of tensions in Ireland and the treatment of former friends in Europe as enemies have produced an anti-Johnsonian culture. 

Its brilliant satires and devastating newspaper columns are as ferocious and outraged as the anti-Thatcherism of the 1980s – and just as ineffective.
A report released today by Labour Renaissance throws a bucket of cold realism over our fevered rages. 

The new think tank wants to reconnect Labour with working-class voters who have left the party for the Conservatives. It hopes to make Labour understand why these vote gave up on a party they supported all their lives.
Renaissance’s recommendations to Keir Starmer are practical and intelligent. I don’t want to knock its work. 

But in a country that cannot face hard facts I fear there’s only so far practicality and intelligence can take you.
What struck me about the findings is the almost nihilistic suspicion voters have of politicians. 

‘They promise you everything then turn up with a barrel of mud,’ said one Plymouth voter. 

Yes, indeed, a barrel of mud is exactly what the UK’s anti-Johnsonian counter-culture believes the prime minister has delivered. (And a few of us think it is a barrel of a more noxious substance.)
Johnson’s supporters don’t treat him as a joke, however. The anti-Johnsonian culture thinks they don’t mind being fooled by the PM because he lets them in on the gag.

 All politicians make promises they know they cannot keep, he implies, but at least I am honest about it. I am not lying to deceive you but to cheer you up and show I am on your side. 

Just as Putin won over Russians by drawing them into his corruption, so Johnson makes Conservatives complicit in his empty bragging.
We don’t think about positive reasons for believing in Johnson. Labour Renaissance does not duck them. 

This government delivered Brexit, protected jobs with the furlough, and rolled out the vaccine, it says. To its supporters, these are substantial achievements.
We reply, ‘but what about austerity and the NHS’? Renaissance warns Labour that, although these questions play well with its core support, the voters they need to talk to think austerity was necessary and the NHS is not in danger. 

On top of that, they expect the Covid debt to constrain the economy and public services in future. ‘We can’t do any more spending or borrow more money,’ as one said. 

Nor were working-class voters keen on higher taxes for higher earners. They saw them as punishment for hard work.
Or to put it another way, a segment of the working-class vote may view most politicians with suspicion but Labour politicians are trusted least of all. 

Stephen Kinnock, one of the MPs behind the think tank explains the mistrust of Labour by saying a party that has been out of power for 11 years has been unable to show working-class people what it can do for them. 

He then adds with considerable tact that Labour’s ‘core identity as the natural home for working people has not always been at the front of our communications’.
For most people I know, politics should not be this way. But here we are nonetheless. 

After the enormous effort Labour has made to reform itself, it still has a mountain of Himalayan magnitude to climb.
The researchers call for Labour to be a communitarian party: protectionist, tough on crime and public safety, and proud of the nation. 

It must ‘relentlessly promote its core identity as the party of working people – and of “Good jobs you can raise a family on.”’ 

Labour must show how every penny it invests will save money in frontline services, rather than committing itself to vast spending promises, and focus on attacking the Tory cronyism and waste that was so evident during the pandemic. It’s pushing at an open door. 

Rachel Reeves is already advocating a buy British policy. The menacing rise of China means that David Ricardo and comparative advantage can be damned. 

There is as coherent a case for not relying on Chinese manufactured goods as there is for not being dependent on Russian energy.
The report is wise about the culture wars, warning that they are as great a danger for the right as the left. 

When the Prime Minister and Home Secretary cannot condemn yobs who boo the England team for taking the knee, it is easy to see how the side that sounds humane and reasonable rather than the side that allows its own fanatics to drag it to an extreme will win.
And yet and yet. The culture wars are the result of a great shift in western politics. Liberal graduates now dominate left-of-centre parties across the rich world. 

I don’t know how far they would allow Labour to go down a communitarian road before they revolted. 

Maybe, like the centre-left of the 1990s, they will become so sick of losing elections they tell their leaders to do whatever is necessary to win, as the anti-Thatcher generation told Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. But I cannot guarantee it.
A more fundamental problem is that Renaissance is selling the same myth as Boris Johnson. 

How does it propose to create the ‘good jobs you can raise a family on’? 

We have wrenched ourselves out of a vast and prosperous free trade area and our leaders can’t even talk about the consequences let alone try to ameliorate them. 

The state turns on business, and then expects business to raise investment and productivity levels. 

The idea that restricting migration will increase living standards is about to be exposed.
All of this pushes all of us in the anti-Johnsonian counter-culture back to asking the same, old question: how can this country be so stupid?

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@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 19 October 2021
Misc.


Globally, the numbers of weekly COVID-19 cases and deaths has stabilized this week, with over 2.7 million cases and over 46 000 new deaths, a 4% and 2% decrease respectively, representing similar numbers as those reported last week’s. 

With the exception of the European region, which for the third consecutive week reported an increase in new COVID-19 cases (7% increase as compared with the previous week), all the other regions reported a decline. 

The largest decrease in new weekly cases was reported from the African Region (18%), followed by the Western Pacific Region (17%). 

The cumulative number of confirmed cases reported globally is now over 240 million and the cumulative number of deaths is over 4.8 million.
The number of new weekly deaths reported globally also showed a stabilization (2% decrease as compared with the previous week), with similar numbers as those reported last week’s in the European region (4% increase), Western Pacific region (1% increase) and the American region (1% decrease). 

The largest decline in new weekly deaths was reported from the African region showing a 24% decrease as compared to the previous week.
The regions reporting the highest weekly case incidence rates per 100 000 population were the European Region (145.6 new cases per 100 000 population) and the Region of the Americas (79.9 new cases per 100 000 population); the same two regions reported the highest weekly incidence in deaths, of 1.9 and 1.8 per 100 000 population, respectively.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

United States of America (582 707 new cases; 11% decrease), 

United Kingdom (283 756 new cases; 14% increase)

Russian Federation (217 322 new cases; 15% increase)

Turkey (213 981 new cases; similar to the number reported in the previous week) 

India (114 244 new cases; 18% decrease).

Conclusions



We turn higher now 

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Many say Covid-19 will transition ‘from epidemic to endemic’. But what does this mean? @scroll_in @muradbanaji
Misc.


Roughly speaking, a disease is endemic in some region if it occurs at a fairly steady level without dying away and without major flare-ups. 

There may be some fluctuations and seasonal variations but not large surges, namely epidemics. 

For example, there are four endemic human coronaviruses which tend to circulate more widely in winter, and cause symptoms of the common cold. 

Could SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes Covid-19, eventually join them?

Hidden behind the idea of endemicity is the mathematical notion of a stable “steady state” or “equilibrium”. 

Very roughly, a steady state is a state of a system which does not change too much over time. 

And it is stable if small changes in inputs do not cause major changes in the state.

What would a steady state look like in practice? 

We would expect Covid-19 cases to remain fairly constant. 

Hospitalisations and deaths would probably remain steady too, unless new treatments become widespread. “R”, the effective reproduction number of the disease, should hover around 1: on average, each infected person would infect one more. 

Any more would lead to exponential growth in infections, and any less would cause infections to fade away.

Additionally, governments may tighten measures as cases start to rise, and relax them as they fall. 

This is an example of so-called feedback control, and can lead to a situation where infection levels stay roughly constant. 

Of course, there is always the hope that vaccines will keep up with, or even outpace, variants. 

Just as variants could push up endemic levels of disease, or increase levels of illness, more effective vaccines could push these down. How this will play out is not yet clear.

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What happens next depends not only on vaccination, but also on how the virus might mutate. @derspiegel
Misc.



"This virus keeps surprising us," agrees Mary Bushman, a mathematician and population biologist at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. 

"No one expected such large jumps in contagiousness.”

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.


 “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1651
Dollar Index 93.573
Japan Yen 114.06
Swiss Franc 0.9189
Pound 1.3814
Aussie 0.7505
India Rupee 74.855
South Korea Won 1176.15
Brazil Real 5.5980
Egypt Pound 15.7050
South Africa Rand 14.4495

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@WHO regional overviews Epidemiological week 11-17 October 2021 African Region
Africa






The declining trend observed in the African Region since mid-July continued this week with over 27 000 new cases and over 900 new deaths reported, decreases of an 18% and a 25% decrease respectively as compared to the previous week. 

While this is reassuring, 13/49 countries (28%) in the Region reported increases of over 15% in the number of reported cases the past week. 

One third of the new weekly cases in the Region was reported by two countries: Ethiopia and South Africa. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

Ethiopia (4706 new cases; 4.1 new cases per 100 000 population; a 22% decrease)

South Africa (4682 new cases; 7.9 new cases per 100 000; a 20% decrease)

Cameroon (3003 new cases; 11.3 new cases per 100 000; similar to previous week).
The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (295 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000 population; a 45% decrease)

Ethiopia (247 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; a 10% decrease)

Nigeria (59 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; a 181% increase).


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Only one-seventh of Covid cases in Africa are being detected, WHO Africa says, based on new data released today. @geoffreyyork.
Africa



"The cumulative number of COVID-19 infections is estimated to be 59 million in Africa, which is seven times more than the over 8 million cases reported."

Conclusions

Similarly Deaths have been undercounted by a similar order of magnitude. 

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“With limited testing, we’re still flying blind in far too many communities in Africa,” @WHOAFRO director @MoetiTshidi says @globeandmail @geoffreyyork
Africa



Health officials are making a dramatic revision of their pandemic assessment in Africa after a new analysis found that 85 per cent of the continent’s COVID-19 infections are going undetected, largely because of a severe lack of testing.
Officially, 8.4 million cases of the virus have been recorded in Africa. But in reality, there have been 59 million infections across the continent, according to the revised data released Thursday by the World Health Organization.
Deaths, too, are believed to be far higher than the official count – probably three times more than the official toll of 214,000 dead, the WHO says.



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Coptic Bishop Abune Makarios airs his views on the ongoing conflict in #Tigray @BBCAfrica
Africa



The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

https://bit.ly/3Bk45Gj

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.



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Ethiopia’s call to arms in Tigray conflict: bury the enemy @thetimes @FredHarter
Africa



Ethiopia has deployed thousands of troops to attack rebels in the region of Tigray and started an airstrike offensive in an attempt to bring the country’s 11-month civil war to an end.
Regional governments have urged schoolchildren to rise up against rebel fighters and “bury the enemy”.

Amhara state has launched a mass mobilisation of troops, with its president calling upon middle and secondary school students to “bury the enemy”, while casting the struggle as an existential one. Abiy has urged “all capable” Ethiopians to join the fight.

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9-JUL-2021 :: The Contagion will surely boomerang and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.
Africa


If I could I would be limit short the Ethiopian Birr [It trades at 60 to the $ on the black market]

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‘Bad sign’ as @IMFNews withholds Ethiopia growth forecast @AfricanBizMag @__TomCollins
Africa





In a rare move reserved for war-torn countries and failed states, the IMF has not released a GDP growth forecast for Ethiopia in its latest World Economic Outlook for the next four years.
The only other countries excluded from the projections are Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.

“Even for conflict-ridden countries like Somalia or South Sudan projections are available. 

That may hold back investors and consequently desperately needed foreign exchange,” he says.

“Ethiopia’s exports under AGOA account for almost half of its exports to the US. Most AGOA exports are concentrated in the textile industry which is a very labour intensive industry. 

The removal of AGOA membership could translate into massive job losses,” says Heinisch.

Many fear a worst case scenario where the current unresponsive nature of the government will eventually turn Ethiopia into a regional pariah, akin to Eritrea or the former regime in Sudan.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in July that infrastructure repair could cost up to $2bn, with more damage expected as the government intensifies its offensive.
Ethiopia’s debt service suspension initiative (DSSI) also runs out at the end of the year, leading to the full resumption of external payments in 2022. 

The government applied to the IMF for a new deal in September to restructure nearly $30 billion of external debt, and awaits the IMF executive board’s approval of disbursements from the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility.
If Ethiopia can achieve external debt restructuring in the first half of next year, it will be a success for the government, says Heinisch.

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.@Facebook shuts fake accounts in Sudan, as fight for public opinion rages online @Reuters
Africa


Facebook says it has shut down two large networks targeting users in Sudan in recent months, as civilian and military leaders spar with one another over the future of an interim power-sharing arrangement.
The battle for public opinion, much of it happening online, is intensifying as Sudan reels from economic crisis and a shaky transition to democracy following 30 years under President Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted in a popular uprising in 2019.
Facebook said one of the networks of inauthentic pages it took down was linked to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the other was populated with people who researchers, hired by the civilian government, flagged as supporters of Bashir agitating for a military takeover.
This week, hundreds of protesters set up camp outside the presidential palace demanding that the military overhaul the cabinet, in what would effectively amount to a coup.
Earlier this month, Facebook said it had shut a network of almost 1,000 accounts and pages with 1.1 million followers run by people the company said were linked to the RSF.
The network boosted RSF official media feeds and other content related to the militia, led by powerful General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo who is deputy head of the ruling Sovereign Council and seen by some Sudanese as harbouring political ambitions.
Representatives for the RSF and Dagalo did not respond to requests for comment. The government had no comment on the RSF-related takedown. 

Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti, denies he is out for personal empowerment and has said in the past that he is committed to the democratic transition to civilian rule.
Facebook's director of threat disruption, David Agranovich, told Reuters the network was identified by the platform's own internal investigation.
The company also said it removed a second network in June, after being tipped off by Valent Projects, an independent research firm hired by Sudan's Information Ministry to look into activity linked to Bashir loyalists.
Facebook said the network comprised more than 100 accounts and pages and had more than 1.8 million followers.
The Sudanese government's efforts to fight what it describes as ex-regime loyalists working to undermine the transition has not previously been reported.
Loyalists were "working systematically to tarnish the image of the government", the ministry said in a statement to Reuters, referring to social media posts in the network identified by Valent.
In both networks, posts mimicked news media but offered skewed coverage of political events, according to Facebook and some independent researchers.
Those Sudanese with internet access - estimated at about 30% of the 45 million population - depend heavily on social media for news.
The military-civilian partnership that replaced now-jailed Bashir in 2019 has been pushed to breaking point in recent weeks in the aftermath of what authorities called a failed coup attempt.
Civilian officials have accused both Bashir loyalists and the military of stirring up unrest, including in the east of the country where tribal protesters have been blocking shipping at Port Sudan, exacerbating shortages stemming from a long-running economic crisis.
Military leaders deny the accusations and say they are committed to the transition to democracy.
'AGITATION'
While Facebook says it uses technical signals on its platform to target groups working to mislead users about their identity, researchers like Valent Projects say they rely on analysis of content, noting for example when a single post is shared simultaneously by different accounts.
Valent Projects said the network it identified was more than three times larger than Facebook's assessment, attracting more than 6 million followers and continuing to grow.
It was active as recently as this week, agitating for a military takeover as protesters gathered in central Khartoum, and last month in the aftermath of the coup attempt, said Valent Projects representatives.
"It looks like they were trying to give the impression of grassroots support for such a move," said founder and director Amil Khan.
When asked about the differing assessments, Facebook's Agranovich said the company was confident it had shut down the entire network and that other accounts Valent identified were not connected.
He said Facebook would continue to monitor for any revival of the network.
Some of the network's posts say Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is not a Muslim and accuse his staff of being paid in dollars, a charge they have denied.
Contributors promote the return of Bashir, jailed on corruption and other charges and wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of atrocities in the Darfur conflict. Bashir has denied all charges.
The network amplified calls for civil disobedience in the east, said Zouhir Al Shimale, Valent Projects' head of research.
It also promoted protests ahead of the June 30 anniversary of the coup in which Bashir took power in 1989, according to the research firm.
"People in Sudan thought there was just going to be a massive demonstration because they saw so much activity," said Khan, citing a movement called Akhtona ("Get out of the way") in local Arabic dialect. In the end some 3,500 people showed up.
Contacted by Reuters, three administrators of pages that Facebook left running denied being part of a network.
"The ruling bodies today categorise any criticism of their oppressive policies and poor economic and political management as being related to the former regime," said one of them, who declined to be identified.
The information ministry said it took no legal measures against the pages or administrators. "The Sudanese government is committed to protecting freedom of expression," it said.
Two takedowns previously announced by Facebook, in December 2020 and May 2021, targeted accounts boosting Dagalo and the RSF, according to researchers at Stanford Internet Observatory and the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab.
In both networks Facebook said it found links to the Russian Internet Research Agency (IRA), the officially defunct group accused of meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections.
Anna Bogacheva, who the United States accused of carrying out IRA operations to interfere with elections and political processes, declined to answer questions about IRA when reached by phone.
Agranovich said the most recently targeted network linked to the RSF did not reveal foreign links, and appeared part of a growing trend of domestic influence operations.

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And now we have two visions of the Future
Africa


And now we have two visions of the Future. One Vision played out on our screens, the Protestors could have been our Wives, our Children, our Daughters and Sons.
The Other Vision is that of MBS, MBZ and Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw. 

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10-JUN-2019 :: The ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating.
Africa


As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.
Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.

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28 OCT 19 :: From Russia with Love
Africa


To simplify, Russia’s “political technologists” have reportedly devised bespoke solutions for confronting incipient and ongoing color revolutions

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Africa's glaciers to melt, millions of poor face drought, floods, UN says @Reuters.
Africa


Africa's fabled eastern glaciers will vanish in two decades, 118 million poor people face immanent drought, floods or extreme heat, and climate change could also shave 3% off continental GDP by mid-century, the U.N. climate agency warned on Tuesday.
The latest report on the state of Africa's climate by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), partnered with African Union agencies, paints a dire picture of the continent's ability to adapt to increasingly frequent weather disasters.
According to one data set, 2020 was Africa's third warmest year on record, 0.86 degrees Celsius above the average temperature in the three decades leading to 2010. 

It has mostly warmed slower than high-latitude temperate zones, but the impact is still devastating.
"The rapid shrinking of the last remaining glaciers in eastern Africa, which are expected to melt entirely in the near future, signals the threat of ... irreversible change to the Earth system," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a foreword to the report.
It forecast that on current rates all three of Africa's tropical ice fields - Tanzania's Kilimanjaro, Kenya's Mount Kenya, and Uganda's Rwenzoris - would be gone by the 2040s.
In addition, "By 2030, it is estimated that up to 118 million extremely poor people (living on less than $1.90 per day) will be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat ... if adequate response measures are not put in place," the African Union's Agriculture Commissioner Josefa Sacko said.
Africa, which accounts for less than 4% of greenhouse gas emissions, has long been expected to be severely impacted by climate change. 

Its croplands are already drought-prone, many of its major cities hug the coast, and widespread poverty makes it harder for people to adapt.
Apart from worsening drought on a continent heavily reliant on agriculture, there was extensive flooding recorded in East and West Africa in 2020, the report noted, while a locust infestation of historic proportions, which began a year earlier, continued to wreak havoc.
The report estimated that sub-Saharan Africa would need to spend $30-$50 billion, or 2-3% of GDP, each year on adaptation to avert even worse consequences.
An estimated 1.2 million people were displaced by storms and floods in 2020, nearly two and half times as many people as fled their homes because of conflict in the same year.

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In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.
Africa



Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.



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Absolute precipitation anomalies for 2020 in relation to the 1981–2010 reference period. Blue areas indicate above average precipitation while brown areas indicate below-average precipitation. @WMO
Africa


Absolute precipitation anomalies for 2020 in relation to the 1981–2010 reference period. Blue areas indicate above average precipitation while brown areas indicate below-average precipitation. Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany

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Glaciers: Presently, only three mountains in Africa are covered by glaciers – the Mount Kenya massif (Kenya), the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda) and Mount Kilimanjaro (United Republic of Tanzania). @WMO
Africa



Although these glaciers are too small to act as significant water reservoirs, they are of eminent touristic and scientific importance. 

Their current retreat rates are higher than the global average. If this continues, it will lead to total deglaciation by the 2040s. 

Mount Kenya is expected to be deglaciated a decade sooner, which will make it one of the first entire mountain ranges to lose glaciers due to human-induced climate change.

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Precipitation: Higher-than-normal precipitation – accompanied by flooding - predominated in the Sahel, the Rift Valley, the central Nile catchment and north-eastern Africa, the Kalahari basin and the lower course of the Congo River. @WMO
Africa


Dry conditions prevailed in the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea and in north-western Africa and along the south-eastern part of the continent. The drought in Madagascar triggered a humanitarian crisis.

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High impact events: There was extensive flooding across many parts of East Africa. @WMO
Africa



Countries reporting loss of life or significant displacement of populations included the Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Chad, Nigeria (which also experienced drought in the southern part), Niger, Benin, Togo, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon and Burkina Faso. 

Many lakes and rivers reached record high levels, including Lake Victoria (in May) and the Niger River at Niamey and the Blue Nile at Khartoum (in September).

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Food insecurity: The compounded effects of protracted conflicts, political instability, climate variability, pest outbreaks and economic crises, exacerbated by the impacts of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, were the key drivers of a signific
Africa



A  desert locust invasion of historic proportions, which began in 2019, continued to have a major impact in East and the Horn of Africa in 2020.
Food insecurity increases by 5–20 percentage points with each flood or drought in sub-Saharan Africa. 

Associated deterioration in health and in children’s school attendance can worsen longer-term income and gender inequalities. 

In 2020, there was an almost 40% increase in population affected by food insecurity compared with the previous year.

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Italy Espresso Lovers Lift Uganda Coffee Exports to 30-Year High @markets
Africa



Demand for Ugandan coffee in Italy, where espresso lovers abound, has helped increase the East African nation’s exports of the beans to the highest in at least 30 years.
In August, Uganda overtook Vietnam to become the second-largest supplier of coffee to Italy for the first time this year, behind Brazil. 

Total shipments jumped 21% to 6.5 million 60-kilogram bags in the year through September -- Uganda’s highest in three decades -- about a third of that going to Italy.
Italy and Germany, which together produced more than 60% of the European Union’s roasted coffee last year, have diversified their sources for the beans. 

With Brazil and Vietnam having had trouble exporting amid shipping disruptions, European buyers increased uptake from growers including Uganda and India.
“Uganda has been a surprise over the past couple of years, it’s a successful case of production, expansion and promotion,” said Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities markets analysis at Rabobank in London.

 Given supply chain problems in South America and southeast Asia, roasters have been buying a little more from elsewhere and have been more flexible in blending, according to Mera.
Uganda is Africa’s biggest coffee exporter and the continent’s second-largest producer of the beans after Ethiopia. 

President Yoweri Museveni’s administration has overseen the planting of millions of new trees in recent years as part of plans to increase annual output to 20 million bags by 2030.
“There was some government involvement and we’re seeing the results, production has been increasing quite significantly and it’s likely to continue to do so,” Mera said.
Ugandan authorities have attributed the success in Europe, Asia and the U.S. to improved quality of their beans, which is now the focus as new trees begin to produce. 

Last year, Nestle SA’s unit announced its program to produce and market coffee from Uganda’s mountainous Rwenzori region. Nespresso sells its limited-edition capsules in places including the U.S. and U.K.
“We are seeing more professionals into coffee farming,” said Tony Mugoya, executive director of lobby group Uganda Coffee Farmers Alliance. “We are seeing more capital investment in the sector.”

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On Huduma Namba “This decision is especially welcome at a time when many countries in Africa and elsewhere are implementing massive digital identity systems without full regard to privacy concerns,” - @NoraMbagathi @OSFJustice @waikwawanyoike
Africa



On Huduma Namba “This decision is especially welcome at a time when many countries in Africa and elsewhere in the Global South are implementing massive digital identity systems without full regard to privacy concerns,” - @NoraMbagathi of @OSFJustice

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The 'Shifta War' was an inhumane conflict fought in northern Kenya between 1963 and 1967. Short thread. @Unseen_Archive
Africa



The  conflict pitted Jomo Kenyatta's KANU government--which insisted on the unity of Kenya--against Somali secessionists. Here's a clip from Mandera & Wajir, Aug. 1967.

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British authorities anticipated a separate future for the NFD: according to one plan it would have remained under British administration. @Unseen_Archive
Africa



But Kenyatta's new regime--pushed by protests like the one shown in this clip--insisted that Kenya's territory was inviolable.

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There followed a massive military deployment into the NFD. @Unseen_Archive
Africa



Drawing from models developed by the British during the Mau Mau war, the Kenya govt. interned pastoralists in military-run villages--a way of cutting off support for guerillas.

Clip: shiftas surrender, Aug. 1968.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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