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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 26th of October 2021

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Macro Thoughts
World Of Finance

The @federalreserve is arriving at the Wizard of Oz moment 

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Black swan, golden sunrise @Astrid_Tontson
World Of Finance

For the denouement to happen we need to return to March 2020

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Inflation breakevens crossed an important line Friday. Was it also an important line for Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve? @bopinion @johnauthers
World Of Finance

Five-year breakevens show the implicit bond market forecast for average CPI inflation over the next five years. 

In their 20-year history, they have never topped the upper limit of the Fed’s inflation target of 3% — until early in Friday morning trading:

Perhaps most significantly, he conceded those bottlenecks and energy price increases had created an  inflation framework that the Fed's “patient” approach wasn't designed for. 

That is about as close to an admission of error as a central bank governor can get.

It also had an impact on the thinking of people trading breakevens. Coming so soon after this psychological landmark, it looked as though Powell had come to his line in the sand. 

The 3% level was touched only briefly in early trading; the Powell comments took it well below 2.9%:

Real 10-year yields sank below -1% yet again in the early hours of Friday, naturally enough because inflation expectations rose. 

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Octavio Paz Here

My steps along this street
in another street
in which
I hear my steps
passing along this street
in which
Only the mist is real

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Octavio Paz The Street

A long and silent street.
I walk in blackness and I stumble and fall
and rise, and I walk blind,
my feet stepping on silent stones and dry leaves.
Someone behind me also stepping on stones, leaves:
If I slow down, he slows;
If I run, he runs.
I turn:

Everything dark and doorless.
Turning and turning among these corners
which lead forever to the street
where nobody waits for, nobody follows me,
where I pursue a man who stumbles
and rises and says when he sees me:

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Escobar: The World According To Vladimir Putin @asiatimesonline via @zerohedge
Law & Politics

Right at the start, he evoked the two Chinese characters that depict “crisis” (as in “danger”) and “opportunity,” melding them with a Russian saying: “Fight difficulties with your mind. Fight dangers with your experience.”

This elegant, oblique reference to the Russia-China strategic partnership led to a concise appraisal of the current chessboard:
The re-alignment of the balance of power presupposes a redistribution of shares in favor of rising and developing countries that until now felt left out. 

To put it bluntly, the Western domination of international affairs, which began several centuries ago and, for a short period, was almost absolute in the late 20th century, is giving way to a much more diverse system.
That opened the way to another oblique characterization of hybrid warfare as the new modus operandi:
Previously, a war lost by one side meant victory for the other side, which took responsibility for what was happening. 

The defeat of the United States in the Vietnam War, for example, did not make Vietnam a “black hole.” 

On the contrary, a successfully developing state arose there, which, admittedly, relied on the support of a strong ally. 

Things are different now: No matter who takes the upper hand, the war does not stop, but just changes form. 

As a rule, the hypothetical winner is reluctant or unable to ensure peaceful post-war recovery, and only worsens the chaos and the vacuum posing a danger to the world.
We are surprised by the processes taking place in countries that used to see themselves as pioneers of progress. 

The social and cultural upheavals taking place in the United States and Western Europe are, of course, none of our business; we don’t interfere with them. 

Someone in the Western countries is convinced that the aggressive erasure of whole pages of their own history – the “reverse discrimination” of the majority in favor of minorities, or the demand to abandon the usual understanding of such basic things as mother, father, family or even the difference between the sexes – that these are, in their opinion, milestones of the movement toward social renewal.

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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 55 countries. @ReutersGraphics

19 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

Countries reporting the most new infections each day *

RUSSIA 35,565
TURKEY 27,636
UKRAINE 19,176

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What happens next depends not only on vaccination, but also on how the virus might mutate. @derspiegel

"This virus keeps surprising us," agrees Mary Bushman, a mathematician and population biologist at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. 

"No one expected such large jumps in contagiousness.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1603
Dollar Index 93.90
Japan Yen 113.92
Swiss Franc 0.9206
Pound 1.3764
Aussie 0.7511
India Rupee 75.1545
South Korea Won 1165.52
Brazil Real 5.5556
Egypt Pound 15.7094
South Africa Rand 14.6968

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Either way, it sets up an extremely explosive situation in Khartoum and other big cities, coming just 3 days after a million person march for civilian rule. @_hudsonc

Reports are that political parties and resistance committees are calling people back to the streets now. With SAF and RSF

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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating

As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.

And now we have two visions of the Future. One vision played out on our screens, the protestors could have been our wives, children. 

The other vision is that of MBS, MBZ and Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw. 

Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.

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Army takeover of Sudan likely to add to Horn combustibility, regional tensions. @RAbdiAnalyst

Ethiopia should now worry more. Burhan is even more hardline on Fashaga than PM Hamdok was. Burhan is a native of Gedarif and has great attachment to contested land.

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Remittances flows to Kenya: @MwangoCapital
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s diaspora remittances rose by 20% in the nine months to September compared to last year. — Business Daily

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2021

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