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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 29th of October 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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"Over the last 3 days front-end yields have experienced unprecedented volatility...what is happening now runs beyond macro, it is a plain and simple VaR shock driven by positioning" DB's Saravelos @lisaabramowicz1
World Of Finance


"Over the last 3 days front-end yields have experienced unprecedented volatility...what is happening now runs beyond macro, it is a plain and simple VaR shock driven by positioning and the inability to appropriately calibrate central bank reaction functions:" DB's Saravelos

The @federalreserve is arriving at the Wizard of Oz moment 

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[REGIME CHANGE] There is no training – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. @ptj_official
World Of Finance




There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. 

There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.




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Black swan, golden sunrise @Astrid_Tontson
World Of Finance


For the denouement to happen we need to return to March 2020

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In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.
Misc.

Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.

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26 MAR 18 :: @Facebook
Information & Communication Technology



“We just put information into the bloodstream to the internet and then watch it grow, give it a little push every now and again over time to watch it take shape. And so this stuff infiltrates the online community and expands but with no branding – so it’s unattributable, untraceable.”
“It’s no use fighting elections on the facts; it’s all about emotions.”
“So the candidate is the puppet?” the undercover reporter asked. “Always,” replied Nix.

Traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents can broadcast live and over the top from feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.

In an extraordinary boomerang, The US’ adversaries have turned social media on its head and used it as a ‘’Trojan Horse’’ via psychographic profiling and micro-targeting at a mass scale.
The fundamental challenge for Facebook is this: It has represented itself as an ‘’Infomediary’’ 

An infomediary works as a personal agent on behalf of consumers to help them take control over information gathered about them. 

The concept of the infomediary was first suggested by John Hagel III in the book Net Worth.
However, Facebook has been hawking this information as if it were an intermediary. 

This is its ‘’trust gap’’. That gap is set to widen further. Facebook is facing an existentialist crisis.

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Born in Blackness by @hofrench review – dehumanised in the age of discovery @guardian @peterfrankopan
Misc.


The way we think about history is entirely wrong, says Howard W French at the start of this magnificent, powerful and absorbing book. 

The problem is not just that the people and cultures of Africa have been ignored and left to one side; rather, that they have been so miscast that the story of the global past has become part of a profound “mistelling”.
That process starts, argues French, with the age of discovery. 

The impetus for what turned into the creation of multiple European empires stretching across continents did not come from the “yearning for ties with Asia”, but from a “centuries-old desire to forge trading ties with legendarily rich Black societies” in Africa that were home to huge quantities of gold and an “inexhaustible source” of labour. 

It was along Africa’s western coast that Europeans “perfected techniques of map-making and navigation”, where ship designs were tested and improved and where sailors learned to understand the winds of the Atlantic Ocean.
These experiences, mainly dating to the 1400s, were to prove instrumental not only in the settling of the Americas and the opening up of new trade routes to Europe. 

As it turned out, the most important consequences were for the people of Africa. 

The scale of human suffering that followed Columbus’s crossing of the Atlantic is almost impossible to conceive, let alone describe: modern consensus is that around 12 million were put on slave ships in appalling conditions.
Most were then worked to death, the lifespan of trafficked people reckoned to be seven years or less.

It was cheaper, wrote one English planter on Antigua in 1751, “to work slaves to the utmost, and by the little fare and hard usage, to wear them out before they become useless and unable to do service, and then to buy new ones to fill up their places”. 

Black lives literally did not matter – other than to make their “owners” rich.
French offers a wider view of how and why Africa and its people’s histories have been ignored
The disgusting way that European wealth rested on the backs, bodies and lives of people taken from Africa against their will, and then enslaved thousands of miles away to work on plantations producing sugar, tobacco, cotton and more, underpinned not only western empires but also the standards of living in faraway idylls such as England. 

How lucky the English are to live on an island and be surrounded by the ocean, said a ruler of Dahomey (now southern Benin), one of the largest states in Africa. 

“We, on the other hand,” he said, “are hemmed in by a variety of other peoples, speaking different languages and constantly having to defend ourselves by the sharpness of our swords.”
As French explains, it was not just slavery that devastated swathes of Africa; so too did the process of enslavement. In addition to the 12 million people shipped across the Atlantic, another 6 million lives were lost in or near their homelands in the hunt for slaves. 

That placed extraordinary demographic strains on domestic societies, transformed agriculture and changed gender relations, as it was mainly able-bodied young men who were in demand to do the hard work in colonies overseas. 

Slavery led to fragmentation, fracture and warfare fuelled by weapons – above all, guns – that were sold by Europeans, forcing neighbouring states to compete with and turn on one another in an attempt to defend their own populations from being carted away.
It had other effects too. The rich diversities of the many different people of Africa became subsumed into a single category of “blackness” that obscured and ignored proud histories and cultures and treated all the inhabitants of the continent and their descendants as being one and the same. 

That was ironic, of course, given that populations were deliberately distributed in the Americas and Caribbean to prevent family and kinship groups being able to communicate with each other, reducing the chances of rebellion against the Europeans who were heavily outnumbered.
At times, the dehumanisation that French describes so powerfully is hard to read. 

In 1661, for example, a law was passed in Barbados that was then adopted in Antigua, Jamaica, South Carolina and beyond that declared that Africans were a “heathenish, brutish and uncertaine, dangerous kinde of people”, and that white owners should therefore assume near total control over their lives. 

French discusses the scale of the back-breaking workload expected of slaves and the way that rose over time, and explains how this fuelled the industrialisation and modernisation of Britain and how black lives raised standards of living for people living on the other side of the world.
These days, the importance of the role of transatlantic slavery is better known and more studied than it was in the past – and rightly so. 

This book, though, is about much more than that, for French offers a wider view of how and why Africa and its people’s histories have been ignored, showing how the exploitation of the Americas and the Caribbean brought ecological dividends that then reshaped the world.
French writes with the elegance you would expect from a distinguished foreign correspondent, and with the passion of someone deeply committed to providing a corrective. 

I wish he had gone beyond the middle of the 20th century to bring us up to date, not least because problems of historical legacy, of race and racism and of inequality are among today’s most important issues – while the future of the people of Africa, which will be magnified by climate change, is the defining topic of tomorrow. 

This is not a comfortable or comforting read, but it is beautifully done; a masterpiece even.

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Interview with Maria Joao Lopo de Carvalho about Luis de Camoes and her book which followed his c16th journey from Portugal to Macau via Cape of Good Hope
Misc.



Interview with Maria Joao Lopo de Carvalho about Luis de Camoes and her book which followed his c16th journey from Portugal to Macau via the Cape of Good Hope Mozambique Mombasa Malindi Oman Hormuz Goa Sri Lanka Macau Malacca

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The Dark Forest which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.” @nfergus
Law & Politics


First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” 
Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” 
Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. 
In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:
The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... 
The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. 
If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — 
There’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. 
In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.
This is intergalactic Darwinism.

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Taiwan leader @iingwen says she has 'faith' US will defend island @AFP
Law & Politics


Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen said she has "faith" that the United States will defend the island in the event China launches a military strike, in an interview with CNN broadcast Wednesday.

"I do have faith" that US forces would help defend Taiwan, Tsai told the news network, adding that Washington's commitment includes sending Americans to train Taiwan's military -- a program confirmed to AFP by a Pentagon official earlier this month.
"We have a wide range of cooperation with the US aiming at increasing our defense capability," Tsai said.
But she also insisted she hopes that China and Taiwan can "co-exist peacefully" despite the current knife-edge atmosphere.
The remarks come as tensions soar in East Asia, where incursions by Chinese warplanes into Taiwan's air defense zone have spiked in recent weeks.
The strain has risen to its highest in decades under Chinese President Xi Jinping, who broke off official communication with Taipei following Tsai's election five years ago and ramped up economic, diplomatic and military pressure.
Earlier this month, Tsai stressed that Taiwan would not bow to the pressure by Beijing, describing the island as "standing on democracy's first line of defense."
Self-governed Taiwan's 23 million people live under the constant threat of invasion by authoritarian China, which views the island as its territory and has vowed to one day seize it, by force if necessary.
Despite the persistent threats and aggression from Beijing, Tsai told CNN she is willingly to meet with Xi in order to "reduce misunderstanding" and address the differences in their political systems.
"We can sit down and talk about our differences, and try to make arrangements so that we will be able to co-exist peacefully," she said.
US President Joe Biden told a televised forum last week that Washington was ready to defend Taiwan from any Chinese invasion.
The remarks were swiftly walked back by the White House, which wants to maintain a strategy of ambiguity on whether it would intervene militarily if China were to attack.

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.@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 26 October 2021
Misc.



During the week of 18 to 24 October 2021, the global number of new cases increased slightly (4%) compared to that of the previous week, with just over 2.9 million new cases (Figure 1).
 

The European Region accounted for more than half (57%) of global new weekly cases and was the only region which reported an increase (Table 1). 

Other regions reported declines in the number of new cases. 

The largest decrease in new cases was again reported from the African Region (21%), followed by the Western Pacific Region

The regions reporting the highest weekly case incidence rates per 100 000 population were 

the European Region (179.1 new cases per 100 000 population) 

Region of the Americas (72.9 new cases per 100 000 population)

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

United States of America (512 956 new cases; -12%) 

United Kingdom (330 465 new cases; -16%)

Russian Federation (248 956 new cases; +15%)

Turkey (196 850 new cases; -8%)

Ukraine (134 235 new cases; +43%)

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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 56 countries. @ReutersGraphics
Misc.

20 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

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What happens next depends not only on vaccination, but also on how the virus might mutate. @derspiegel
Misc.



"This virus keeps surprising us," agrees Mary Bushman, a mathematician and population biologist at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. 

"No one expected such large jumps in contagiousness.”

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09-MAY-2021 The Lotos-eaters The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! I beg to differ
World Of Finance



Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM!  I beg to differ

Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1660
Dollar Index 93.473
Japan Yen 113.58
Swiss Franc 0.9118
Pound 1.3784
Aussie 0.7540
India Rupee 74.855
South Korea Won 1169.605
Brazil Real 6.6464
Egypt Pound 15.7107
South Africa Rand 15.167

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African Region WHO regional overviews Epidemiological week 18-24 October 2021
Africa


The declining trend observed in the African Region since mid-July continued this week with over 22 000 new cases and over 800 new deaths reported, a decrease of 21% and 11% respectively as compared to the previous week. 

While this is reassuring, ten out of the 49 countries (20%) in the Region reported increases in new weekly cases as compared with the previous week, with the greatest increase observed in Réunion (578%), Botswana (116%), and Gambia (100%). 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

South Africa (3153 new cases; 5.3 new cases per 100 000 population; a 33% decrease), 

Botswana (3063 new cases; 130.3 new cases per 100000; a 116% increase)

Ethiopia (2908 new cases; 2.5 new cases per 100 000; a 38% decrease).
The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (327 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000 population; an 11% increase), 

Ethiopia (136 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; a 45% decrease)

Nigeria (52 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; a 12% decrease).

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General al-Burhan: Illegitimate, Unpatriotic, Untrustworthy, and Not a Leader BY ALEX DE WAAL
Africa


The seizure of power by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Monday was a brazen usurpation of the constitutional order, a selfish effort to protect the privileges of the army, and a betrayal of a succession of promises he himself had made.

Al-Burhan’s action is a military coup, pure and simple: a power grab in defiance of a constitutional order which was as precious as it was fragile. 

It is an unconstitutional change in government that should automatically lead to Sudan’s suspension from the African Union until such time as the legitimate order is restored. 

In this case, legitimate order does not mean a new formula contrived by the general himself in order to preserve his own stolen status, under which he puts in place his lackeys who, should they accept his offers, will show not only that they are for sale in Sudan’s political marketplace but also that their price is cheap

For nobody has any confidence that al-Burhan will be anything other than a minor clone of his deposed mentor, Omar al-Bashir, who ran Sudan in this manner for three decades, leaving it in a desperate state inherited by the democratic revolution.

No, a return to constitutional legitimacy in Sudan means at minimum that al-Burhan steps down from power, as he was legally obliged to do next month when his term as the Chairman of the Sovereignty Council expired.

The general’s putsch has shown him to be unpatriotic—he is pursuing private or factional interests regardless of the cost to the Sudanese people as a whole.

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U.S. officials and sources in Khartoum told Foreign Policy that Burhan and Hemeti were wary to hand over power for fear that they could face arrest for committing war crimes @matnashed
Africa


THREAD on #Sudan : U.S. officials and sources in Khartoum told Foreign Policy that Burhan and Hemeti were wary to hand over power for fear that they could face arrest for committing war crimes—particularly the massacre of nearly 130 civilians protesting Bashir’s rule in June 2019

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Although it is still early, Burhan's plan seems to have seriously backfired. @matnashed
Africa


Although it is still early, Burhan's plan seems to have seriously backfired. The U.S could tap into the internal grievances within the military against Burhan to sideline him and replace him with another figure that would restore the civilian/military partnership.

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The other scenario could see Burhan refuse to exit Instead, he could stubbornly escalate repression against protesters. He may bet that the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will stand by him despite his pariah status. @matnashed
Africa



The other scenario could see Burhan refuse to exit the political scene since he knows he's not redeemable.  Instead, he could stubbornly escalate repression against protesters. He may bet that the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will stand by him despite his pariah status. 

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"#Sudan seems stuck in a cycle of never-ending grief and shoddy politics. Our attempts at self-governance are routinely thwarted by military men being swayed by influence from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt." @NicholasCoghlan
Africa



"#Sudan seems stuck in a cycle of never-ending grief and shoddy politics. Our attempts at self-governance are routinely thwarted by military men being swayed by influence from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt." #SudanCoup

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20 JAN 20 :: The Intrusion of Middle Powers
Africa


In fact, from the Maghreb to the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, we are witnessing a surge in asymmetric warfare and the intrusion of Middle Powers.

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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
Africa



As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.

And now we have two visions of the Future. One vision played out on our screens, the protestors could have been our wives, children. 

The other vision is that of MBS, MBZ and Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw. 

Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.

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#Sudan TV back on the air. Several interviews with individuals praising the militarys takeover and the correction of the path of the Revolution @ikushkush
Africa

#Sudan TV back on the air. The dismissal of Lukman Ahmed and the appointment of Ibrahim al-Buza'i as head of the Sudanese Radio and Television Corporation. Several interviews with individuals praising the military's takeover and "the correction of the path of the Revolution"

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Ethiopias Chosen One A Brutal War Waged By a @NobelPrize Laureate @derspiegel
Africa


Even back then when the war was still far away and Abiy Ahmed seemed like a beacon of hope, Berhane Kidanemariam feared that his country could be in danger.
It was July 2018 and Berhane was standing on a stage in the University of Southern California basketball arena in Los Angeles. 

The stands were full of men and women waving Ethiopian flags, eager to see the man who had promised to do everything better in Ethiopia, a man who sang the praises of peace and love. 

Abiy Ahmed had been Ethiopian prime minister for just a few months, and the darling of the West had come to speak to the Ethiopian diaspora.

Berhane, who was Ethiopian consul general in L.A. at the time, had known Abiy for years. 

He had helped organize the event in the stadium and stepped up to the lectern to introduce the prime minister. 

But the audience began berating him with racist slurs. "Tigrayan, get out!” some shouted. 

Berhane comes from Tigray, and the insults were clearly meant for him. He hoped his friend Abiy would reprimand the crowd. "But he did nothing of the sort.”

Berhane had been serving the Ethiopian state since 1992, including a stint as part of the government’s communication team, before becoming the head of two state news organizations and then moving on to the diplomatic corps. 

He was a familiar face in the circles of power. In the final years of the old regime, he says, he had a falling out with government leaders because of his demands for wide-ranging reforms, but he retained his job as a diplomat, nonetheless. 

Berhane has been friends with Abiy since 2004, and after the prime minister’s speech, he asked Abiy why had hadn’t reprimanded or rebuked the audience. 

According to Berhane, Abiy answered that there was nothing to find fault with.

The Nobel Prize as Carte Blanche

Berhane says that was the moment when he sensed that Ethiopia’s future might not be so bright. 

But he never imagined that Abiy would trigger a war in his country; that under his governance, hundreds of thousands of people would be intentionally threatened by starvation in the northern Tigray region and that millions would have to flee; that this man, whom he once called a friend, would lead Ethiopia to the edge of the abyss. 

But that’s exactly what has happened, and now Berhane Kidanemariam is wondering: How could it have come to this?
Many people around the world are wondering the same thing. Who is Abiy Ahmed really?
 

The man who received the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize is now leading a campaign that observers say has genocidal elements against some of his people? 

On the search for answers, DER SPIEGEL spoke with associates, diplomats, former government members and long-time observers, and combed through Abiy’s talks and appearances since he took power. 

They paint the picture of a leader who has become increasingly resistant to advice, believes in mysticism, is obsessed with power and thinks he has been chosen by God. And who sees the Nobel Prize as a kind of carte blanche.

Abiy was appointed in 2018 by the ruling government coalition to bring peace to Ethiopia. 

An iron-fisted, Tigrayan-led coalition had run the country for the previous 27 years, but the number of anti-government protests was on the rise. 

Abiy, formerly a leading intelligence officer, was chosen to facilitate a period of democratic transition until the next election. 

Soon after he came to power, though, he unexpectedly announced that he was transforming the governing coalition into a single party. He called it the "Prosperity Party.”

The international community admired the putative reformer. Abiy spoke the language of the market. He called himself a capitalist and contended that he planned to loosen the state’s grip on the economy and open it up, in part by privatizing state-owned companies. 

And he said he intended to move beyond the politics of ethnicity. It was a message that many in the West wanted to hear. At the same time, he released political prisoners, spoke of democracy and lauded the free press.
Only very few people beyond Ethiopia’s borders, however, saw that just shortly after he took power, he began stirring up hate of the country’s former leaders from Tigray. 

Fears grew in many areas that Abiy wanted to abolish the finely balanced federal system that grants considerable autonomy to ethnically defined states like Tigray.
His foreign policy drew more attention: Just a few months after taking power, Abiy negotiated a peace agreement with Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki, previously an archenemy. 

In 2019, he received the Nobel Peace Prize for his reforms and for his rapprochement with Eritrea, even though the details of the peace agreement are still not known and the border between the two countries was only opened for a few months. 

Critics claim that Abiy used the supposed reconciliation with Eritrea as a maneuver to allow the destruction of their joint enemy, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.
"Simple Narratives"
Ethiopian historian Wolbert Smith, who has been working for a decade at Ethiopian universities, bemoans the naivete of many Western politicians who, as he says, appreciate "African leaders with simple narratives.” 

He said that "Abiy elevated himself above laws and institutions that were able to secure a precarious balance between the many rival groups.”
On top of that is the fact that many the reforms weren’t the result of decisions made by Abiy, but were the product of resolutions made by the governing coalition of the time. 

The freeing of political prisoners – for which Abiy was often praised – was also introduced by his predecessor.
Just 11 months after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, Abiy launched a military campaign in his own country. 

Tensions with the Tigrayans escalated after they held regional elections in defiance of a directive from Addis Ababa, and Abiy invited Eritrea’s dictator to send his troops into Tigray as well.
A brutal war against the Tigrayan followed, in which rape and starvation were widely used as a weapon of war – especially by the Eritrean soldiers, the allies with whom Abiy had just signed a peace treaty. 

Since July, Abiy’s government has been blocking most aid deliveries to Tigray, where an estimated 400,000 to 900,000 people are living under famine conditions and nearly the entire population is dependent on aid deliveries. 

Tigrayans are being attacked and persecuted across Ethiopia.
Violence is also increasing in other parts of the country and ethnic clashes are growing in frequency. 

Economic growth, which averaged close to 10 percent in the years before Abiy took office, has plunged.
In June of this year, Abiy and his party emerged victorious in the parliamentary election. Large parts of the opposition, though, stayed away in protest or because their leaders are in prison. 

Many citizens, including countless potential voters in Tigray were not even allowed to vote. In early October, Abiy was sworn in as prime minister for the next five years.
Even before being sworn in, during summer, he began recruiting volunteers to augment the army. 

And shortly after his inauguration, he launched another large offensive against the Tigrayans, who responded with a counteroffensive that has thus far been successful. 

Ethiopia observers believe that Abiy and his war in Tigray enjoy widespread support among citizens. 

One European diplomat says that many Ethiopians believe the Tigrayans deserve their fate after 27 years of dictatorial rule.
Abiy’s strategy is as perfidious as it is efficient: He and his inner circle are blaming the West for the crisis in the county. 

He portrays himself as a fighter against an imagined neo-colonialism under which Ethiopia is suffering

At the same time, his government has banned international aid organizations from doing their work, ejected high-ranking UN officials from the country and arrested journalists.
No Longer Accountable
And the honor bestowed upon him by the Nobel Committee has likely emboldened on his relentless course. 

"Abiy seemed to think,” says former diplomat Berhane Kidanemariam, "that he has now arrived all the way at the top, almost next to the Creator.” 

Tsedale Lemma, editor-in-chief of the Addis Standard newsmagazine, says that after receiving the prize, Abiy and his government had the feeling they were no longer accountable to anyone. "The Nobel Prize was like a coronation for life, that gave him the right to do whatever he wants.”
Mehari Taddele Maru, a professor at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, is even more sharply critical of the Nobel Committee: 

"I am of the strongest opinion that the Nobel Prize Committee is responsible for what is happening in Ethiopia, at least partially.” 

He says that many experts issued early warnings about Abiy. The Ethiopian prime minister, he says, was rewarded for an agreement that wasn’t about creating peace, but about preparing for war.
What, though, does Abiy really want? One of his primary motives is that of restoring Ethiopia to its former greatness. 

"It is a kind of 'Make Ethiopia Great Again,’” says Tsedale, the journalist. "As if there had ever been a great Ethiopia for the people.” She says that Abiy is pursuing a dangerous form of "blood and soil nationalism.”
A video from December of last year shows how far Abiy’s delusions has gone. In the clip, he perorates on the fact that in 2050, the world will be led by two world powers – one of which, he is convinced, will be Ethiopia. 

His delusions of grandeur are based on the belief of many Ethiopians that they are the nation that is closest to God. Abiy also believes in this dream of an "Ethiopian exceptionalism.”
At appearances, Abiy likes to say that his Christian-Orthodox mother already prophesied during his childhood that he would rise to become the seventh king of Ethiopia, a ruler in the line of succession of the Ethiopian emperors, the direct descendant of King Solomon.
Heavenly Intervention
Like many Ethiopians, Abiy is member of an evangelical church. Its core belief is that one can achieve wealth through godliness. 

"It quickly became clear that religion was shaping his worldview,” says Tsedale. 

Abiy seemingly views the campaign in Tigray partly through this religious lens, and observers agree that he sees the war as a test from God. 

Deacon Daniel Kibret, a radical Christian and close advisor to Abiy, recently compared the Tigrayans to Satan and called for their extermination.
"I hear from his inner circle that Abiy seems to believe that there will be some sort of heavenly intervention and that God will somehow act against the Tigray Defense Forces,” says Kjetil Tronvoll, a professor of peace and conflict studies at Oslo New University College and a well-informed observer of Ethiopian politics

He says that Abiy religious motifs have found their way into the focus of his thinking. "And the international community has never taken that seriously.”
The extent to which the prime minister is influenced by religious insinuations is reflected in an audio clip of a phone call between Abiy and a preacher that was leaked in early June and is considered by experts to be authentic. 

In the clip, the preacher says that God told her that the prime minister should not negotiate, but rather be cruel in the name of the Almighty. She said that he, Abiy, is like Moses and that nobody will stop him, that God will make him great.
Abiy Ahmed, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, answered: "Amen!''

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November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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The Tigray War has cost $2.5 billion and international investors are staying away, according to Louw Nel, a senior political analyst at NKC African Economics CGTN
Africa

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
https://bit.ly/3Bk45Gj

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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Zimbabwe Hikes Key Interest Rate to 60% to Halt Currency Plunge @economics
Africa



Zimbabwe’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 60%, from 40%, as it attempts to stabilize a free-falling currency and rein in surging inflation.

The decision comes 17 days after the central bank hinted it would implement a plan to curb speculative borrowing that’s fueled a decline in the value of the Zimbabwe dollar. The southern African nation last hiked its key interest rate in February.
The Monetary Policy Committee “expressed concern regarding the recent increase in month-on-month inflation, driven mainly by the resurgence in the volatility of the parallel-market exchange rate,” central-bank Governor John Mangudya said in a statement on the monetary authority’s website. 

The inflation rate rose to 54.5% in the year through October, from 51.5% the previous month, he said.
Zimbabwe’s dollar has plunged on the parallel market to about Z$180 per U.S. dollar, more than double the official exchange rate of Z$88.55

Instability in the foreign-exchange market is being driven by an unrelenting increase in money supply, increasing imports and long delays in settlement at the central bank’s weekly currency auction, according to the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries, the country’s largest business lobby group.
In 2008, the currency plunged and a bout of hyperinflation decimated savings and resulted in shortages. 

The Zimbabwe dollar was scrapped early the next year and the use of foreign currencies was legalized. 

The Zimbabwe dollar was only reintroduced in 2019 at parity with the American currency, but quickly plummeted.

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Airtel Africa [@airtelafrica] H1 2021 [ends: 30th Sept]: @MwangoCapital
Africa


- Revenue up 25.2% to $2.3B
- EBITDA up 35.2% to $1.1B
- Operating profit up 55.1% to $732m
- Profit up >2X to $335m

- Basic EPS up 156% to 7.6 cents
- Operating FCF  up 43.1% to $853m
- Customer base up 5.4% to 122.7m

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East African Portland Cement Company reports FY EPS 20.97 versus [30.77] Earnings through June 30th 2021
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           7.80
Total Shares Issued:          90000000.00
Market Capitalization:        702,000,000
EPS:            20.97
PE:              
 
A key provider of Cement and Cement products in Kenya for over 70 years.

EAPCC reports FY Earnings through 30th June 2021 versus 30th June 2020

Group FY Revenue 2.762748b versus 2.474902b

FY Cost of Sales [3.583282b] versus [3.300350b]

FY Gross Loss [820.534m] versus [825.448m]

FY Other Operating Income 108.663m versus 198.864m 

FY Selling and Distribution [127.145m] versus [177.694m]

FY Admin & Establishment [888.400m] versus [1.859448b]

FY Other Operating Expenses [1.484950b] versus [464.815m]

FY Loss from Operations [3.212366b] versus [3.128541b]

FY Finance costs [835.694m] versus [786.304m]

FY Fair Value on Investment Property 5.783847b versus 1.114779b

FY Profit [Loss] before Tax 1.735936b versus [2.798610b]

FY Income Tax Credit 151.644m versus 29.263m

FY Profit [Loss] after Tax 1.887580b versus [2.769347b]

FY EPS 20.97 versus [30.77]

FY Investment properties 25.271720b 

Conclusions

its all about the revaluation of the investment property 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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