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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 03rd of November 2021

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Mirrors on the ceiling, The Pink champagne on ice
World Of Finance

And she said "We are all just prisoners here, of our own device"

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Friends, *Hyperinflation* seems to exist in the minds of noise-prone pple on Social Media than in the numbers. @nntaleb
World Of Finance

1) COMMODITIES: The CRB is lower than it was in 2014 and waaaaay lower (50%) than 2007.

2) SHIPPING: The Baltic Dry Index is 60% *below* 2007.

Jst local disruptions.

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The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance

"Courage!" he said, and pointed toward the land, "This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon."

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7 NOV 17 :: "Wow! What a Ride!"
World Currencies

Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”

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27 NOV 17 :: "Wow! What a Ride!"
World Currencies

Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”

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08-JUN-2020 :: Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom.

Dislocations in the markets can last an Eternity Just ask Julian Robertson 

But The Music has been playing for Eternity 

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[AND A REGIME CHANGE is coming ] There is no training – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. @ptj_official
World Of Finance

There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.

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Black swan, golden sunrise @Astrid_Tontson
World Of Finance

For the denouement to happen we need to return to March 2020

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Into the metaverse: how sci-fi shapes our attitudes to the future @FT.
Information & Communication Technology

When I recently finished reading Ted Chiang’s 2019 sci-fi collection Exhalation, what lingered most about his futuristic short stories was how contemporary they felt. 

In a world where news reports about AI-powered robo‑carers and aggressive algorithms have become familiar, Chiang’s otherworldly tales have an uncanny relevance.
Things really hit home when I read a colleague’s description of the “metaverse”, a virtual reality proposed by large Silicon Valley tech companies such as Facebook and Microsoft, where we could carry out the day-to-day business of living via avatars.
My colleague wrote that if these companies built their own metaverse platforms, with proprietary headsets acting as gateways, the result could be “a collection of isolated worlds, forcing digital citizens to pick where they spend the bulk of their time”. 

This is the exact premise of “The Lifecycle of Software Objects”, one of Chiang’s stories.

In recent weeks, the term metaverse has entered the public discourse, with Facebook rebranding itself as Meta, aiming to be the first builder of a three-dimensional virtual world. 

That got me thinking about how real-world technological innovation is influenced by science fiction.
The term metaverse was coined in Snow Crash, a 1992 sci-fi novel by Neal Stephenson, where it refers to a shared virtual space inhabited by both humans and digital “daemons”. 

Although Stephenson has said he was just “making sXXt up”, technologists including the designer of Google Earth and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos have admitted to being inspired by the book.
It’s not just the metaverse. Research from the AI Narratives project at the Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence at Cambridge university has shown that a subset of western narratives has been disproportionately influential in the dystopian visions of AI across the English-speaking world.
“We get ideas about what AI should look like from Hollywood, that’s where the idea of the humanoid robot comes from,” says Kanta Dihal, the researcher behind AI Narratives. 

“We did a survey in the UK. If people are concerned about AI, they cite The Terminator.”
In sharp contrast, Japanese attitudes to AI are dramatically less dystopian because of the unique cultural history of robots in Japanese manga. 

Two of the country’s most famous animated series, Astro Boy and Doraemon, have been around since the 1960s and have deeply influenced people’s positive associations with AI.
Astro Boy is a little android with superhuman powers who coexists happily with humans, while Doraemon is a cute blue cat who happens to be a robot and who travels back in time to save a young boy. 

“Compared with The Terminator, this is such a different perspective on what AI could be,” Dihal tells me. 

“Having that different narrative history completely changes the way in which people think about tech.”
In China, meanwhile, sci-fi authors — who have recently experienced a surge in popularity — are treated as oracles who can help foresee cutting-edge technologies. 

One of these celebrated new writers is Chen Qiufan, whose short story “The Fish of Lijiang” (about a burnt-out office drone that visits a rural vacation town for a tech detox, only to discover that there is no way to unplug) propelled him to popularity both within and outside China.
Chen, who has worked in the marketing teams of Chinese search giant Baidu and Google, says the Chinese government has started promoting science fiction as a tool to popularise science and technology among its youth, an idea borrowed from the former Soviet Union.
“In recent years, China is undergoing a transition; we used to be a country with a lot of low-cost labour, old-fashioned manufacturing, but [now] the government is trying to catch up on chips and AI and material science and quantum computing,” Chen says. 

Science fiction has become a way to “educate the younger generation and ignite their passion” for these fields.
Chen collaborates with tech giants such as Tencent and Alibaba, as well as the Chinese space agency, because the conversations between scientists, engineers and writers have led to interesting collaborations in both directions.
But all the tech luminaries imitating art to build real life are forgetting one important thing. The point of sci-fi — like all fiction — is not to predict the future, but to teach us what it really means to be human in a changing world. And that’s a lesson today’s innovators are yet to learn.

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Ethiopia Urges Residents of Capital City to Arm Themselves @BPolitics
Law & Politics

Ethiopia’s government urged residents of its capital to arm themselves and protect their neighborhoods, after rebel fighters in the north of the country captured two key towns on a main route into the city.
The call came as the U.S. expressed alarm at the situation in Ethiopia, which on Wednesday marks a year since conflict erupted in the Horn of Africa nation.
Authorities in Addis Ababa gave residents two days to register any firearms that they own, Kenea Yadeta of the city’s peace and security administration bureau told reporters in a briefing aired by broadcaster Fana TV on Tuesday. 

Plans are under way to conduct raids and searches of hotels, houses and people deemed to be a security threat, he said.
“Individuals with personal arms, legal arms, are expected to protect their neighborhoods in an organized manner,” Kenea said. 

Older or infirm people should provide weapons to family members or neighbors, he said.
The capital of Africa’s second-most populous nation is a regional diplomatic center, hosting the headquarters of the African Union and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. 

Addis Ababa is also an aviation hub used by Ethiopian Airlines to fly travelers to destinations within Africa and to North America, Asia and the Middle East.
The announcement by the Addis Ababa authorities came two days after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed urged Ethiopians to use “any type of weapon” to reverse advances made by the Tigray People’s Liberation Forces, after they captured the towns of Dessie and Kombolcha at the weekend.
The situation in Ethiopia is “dire” and deteriorating, Jeffrey Feltman, the U.S. special envoy to the Horn of Africa, told reporters on a conference call on Tuesday.
“Without question the situation is getting worse and we are frankly alarmed by the situation,” he said. 

“The parties do not seem anywhere near to the point of agreeing to deescalate a negotiated ceasefire and some kind of talks.”

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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 55 countries. @ReutersGraphics

16 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1584
Dollar Index 94.086
Japan Yen 113.84
Swiss Franc 0.9138
Pound 1.3628
Aussie 0.7444
India Rupee 74.565
South Korea Won 1181.55
Brazil Real 5.6809
Egypt Pound 15.7301
South Africa Rand 15.4135

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Soaring Wheat Prices Are Raising Bread Costs @markets

Wheat prices have surged from the U.S. to Russia, hitting a record in Europe and raising bread costs all over the world. And there may not be much relief soon.
The crop -- grown on more land than any other -- was hit by droughts, frost and heavy rain this year in key exporters. 

That’s curbed supplies used in everything from pizza crusts and French baguettes to Asian noodles and African couscous, pushing benchmark prices in Chicago to an almost nine-year high.
That’s not just threatening higher grocery bills -- it’s giving central banks a bigger inflation headache and risks worsening global hunger that’s already at a multiyear high. 

The worry is that big crops looming in Argentina and Australia won’t fully ease tight supply, and fields elsewhere are only just being planted.
“We could see further upside,” said Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities market research at Rabobank in London. “The higher the price goes, the more fear there is in the market and the more panic buying.”

Wheat in Chicago traded lower on Tuesday, after touching the highest since December 2012, while Paris futures reached a record 297 euros a ton before closing at 292.75 euros. 

While the world has a lot of wheat, much of that’s held in countries like China, which ships little abroad. 

Inventories in the top seven exporters -- a better gauge of availability -- are expected to sink to an eight-year low. 

Argentina and Australia just started harvesting, but it’ll take the better part of a year before Northern Hemisphere silos are replenished with the next crop.

Protectionist Measures

Russia -- last season’s top shipper -- started taxing exports this year to safeguard supplies and keep domestic costs in check, and signaled an overseas sales quota is likely. 

That’s helped to slow shipments and support prices elsewhere, while giving rival suppliers the chance to grab more market share.

Import Needs

Although top wheat buyer Egypt temporarily balked at high prices last month, appetite from importers remains strong, with Saudi Arabia booking more than double the expected amount in its latest tender. 

Countries typically stockpile several months of supply, but governments can’t risk running out before the next major harvests.
The rising prices are becoming a bigger challenge. Turkey’s president has blamed supermarket chains for a surge in food bills, 

Egypt is preparing to hike prices for the bread it subsidizes for its citizens and Tunisia doesn’t expect any relief in durum wheat costs until next year’s harvest.
Costlier Fertilizer
While wheat’s rally is good news for farmers, their costs are going up too. 

Fertilizer prices are soaring from Europe to North America on production shortages, threatening to weigh on harvests next season.
Winter wheat makes up the bulk of supplies across the Northern Hemisphere, and while plantings are almost finished, farmers need to stock up on the nutrients now to boost yields and quality in the spring. 

French growers are already worried about fertilizer shortages.

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Mozambique bread riots may be warning sign on African food security Africa Monitor @csmonitor By Aly-Khan Satchu, September 6, 2010
Law & Politics

Global food markets are but the perturbation of a butterflys's wing away from a serious tipping point.
Given the fragility of the food markets, Maputo might well be a shot across the bows of many regimes, who have yet to secure access to sufficient food at sufficiently low prices for their people.
Failure to execute on this front, surely imperils many.

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Getachew Reda tells the @BBCAfrica that members of #Tigray forces & fighters from the Oromo Liberation Army #OLA have physically linked up. The 2 groups say their aim is to take #Ethiopia capital Addis Ababa. @RoncliffeOdit

The spokesperson for the #Tigray People's Liberation Front, Getachew Reda tells the @BBCAfrica that members of the #Tigray forces & fighters from the Oromo Liberation Army #OLA have physically linked up. The 2 groups say their aim is to take #Ethiopia capital Addis Ababa.

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November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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The battle of Kosovo sealed the fate of the entire Balkan Peninsula —sealed the defeat of Milosovich of Serbia. @DrMehari

For the Battle of Dessie to be the last battle, all parties should sit for a negotiated resolution of the war.  But first, the military logic behind TDF advances...1

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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Barkawi's & Laffey's writing comes to mind (again): awaiting liberation at the hands of the West is as pointless today as it's always been, in #Ethiopia as in #Myanmar @DavBrenner

As Ethiopia's regime is about to collapse under the military pressure of the #Tigray & #Oromo resistance, Barkawi's & Laffey's writing comes to mind (again): awaiting liberation at the hands of the West is as pointless today as it's always been, in #Ethiopia as in #Myanmar 

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Tigrayans have chosen not to await this kind of "liberation" and have managed to fight back against what was said to be Africa's strongest army 2/3 @DavBrenner

All that the West, inc. Abyi Ahmed's US allies, did was talking about humanitarian aid & a few sanctions in the context of genocide. Tigrayans have chosen not to await this kind of "liberation" and have managed to fight back against what was said to be Africa's strongest army 2/3

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#Abiy’s latest claim: Many people are adamant it’s proof positive that he is clinically insane. He is, course. It’s however insanity with method. @reda_getachew

#Abiy’s latest claim:foreigners-black& white,to boot-did fight alongside our forces in the #Wollo front. Many people are adamant it’s proof positive that he is clinically insane. He is, course. It’s however insanity with method. Read in conjunction with his spiritual Guru, Daniel

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“Revolution must be distinguished from revolt, coup d’état, palace takeover. A coup or a palace takeover may be planned, but a revolution—never'' ― Ryszard Kapuściński, Shah of Shahs

''Its outbreak, the hour of that outbreak, takes everyone, even those who have been striving for it, unawares. They stand amazed at the spontaneity that appears suddenly and destroys everything in its path. It demolishes so ruthlessly that in the end it may annihilate the ideals that called it into being.”

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On the Coup in Sudan @LRB @jbgallopin

Some military takeovers are carefully orchestrated, plotted in secret for months; others are haphazard affairs conjured in the heat of the moment. The coup in Sudan last week was neither. 

It had looked like a strong possibility for a year and a half; then, with four weeks to go, it was heralded by a round of strenuous manoeuvring and astroturfing. 

Yet the timing was awkward and the execution sloppy, and now General Abdelfattah al-Burhan, the head of the junta, is facing off against intense domestic and international pressure.
The authorities announced on 21 September that they had narrowly averted a coup attempt. 

Observers wondered whether the story was real, or the pretext for a purge, or simply a ploy by Burhan – then the head of a ‘sovereignty council’ overseeing a precarious transition process – to gauge domestic and international reaction in the event of a real coup that would bring the ‘transition period’ to an end.
The September ‘coup attempt’ led to recriminations between the military and civilian politicians, partners in government since August 2019 under an internationally brokered power-sharing agreement. 

Burhan accused the civilians of bungling economic reform. In a meeting with army officers, he called for the dissolution of the civilian-led cabinet. 

In the east of the country, his ally Sheikh Tirik put a stranglehold on the economy by rallying his followers to blockade Port Sudan.
On 16 October security forces allowed several thousand demonstrators, bused into Khartoum, as far as the gates of the presidential palace, where they called for the overthrow of the transitional government. 

Partisans of the civilian prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, responded on 21 October, demonstrating in their hundreds of thousands across the country.
Matters came to a head on the evening of 24 October, after the US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, met with Burhan and threatened to cut off US assistance if he challenged the political transition. 

On Twitter, Khalid Omer Youssef, the minister of cabinet affairs, denounced an ‘ongoing coup’. 

Hours later he was arrested along with other senior civilian figures, including Hamdok, who had refused to dissolve his government. 

On the morning of 25 October activists on the streets of central Khartoum reported modest military deployments. 

Burhan was slow to announce on television that he had dissolved the cabinet and the sovereignty council. 

He made vague promises to appoint a technocratic cabinet and hold elections. But the sequence lacked the decisiveness of successful coups.
Protesters piled into Khartoum. Civil society organisations, political parties, and any ministers who had not been arrested, promised to fight on. 

Within hours of Burhan’s appearance on television, security forces opened fire on demonstrators, killing seven and injuring 140. 

The coup drew near-unanimous condemnation from the international community, with the notable exceptions of Egypt, the UAE and Russia. The US and Germany announced that they were suspending bilateral assistance.
Burhan’s decision to go ahead despite the predictable backlash raised suspicions that he’d received assurances of foreign support; muted reaction from Russia and the Arab Troika did nothing to allay them. 

In May, I asked a senior Sudanese politician (now in detention) to summarise the attitudes of Gulf states towards Sudan. ‘It’s clear they want a military dictatorship,’ he said. ‘It’s not just the UAE and Saudi Arabia. It’s also Qatar, Turkey, Egypt.’
But a former minister, close to the military, suggested that Burhan took the leap because his position in the military and security apparatus was under threat from hardliners who thought the time was ripe: if he’d held back, he would have been toppled by his fellow officers. 

For the moment, the takeover gives the army a façade of unanimity and postpones their confrontation with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces – many of them former Janjawid – whose influence is resented by senior officers. 

Videos of the demonstrations in Khartoum showed regulars and RSF militias moving together against demonstrators.
Sudan has since returned to a rhythm of civilian disobedience and repression reminiscent of the huge mobilisations of 2018-19. 

Residents come out in the morning, raise barricades and chant their demand for civilian rule, until military and paramilitary forces seek to dislodge them with bulldozers, tear gas and live rounds, giving chase to demonstrators until well after dark. 

People go home to rest and mourn their dead. 

They reappear the following day. Meanwhile, the US and the UN Mission in Khartoum are trying to broker yet another compromise between civilian politicians and the army.
The Sudanese are returning to the struggle that went on hold during the summer of 2019, when international mediators were pushing for the power-sharing arrangement that has just been adjourned. 

The deal forced the generals, who had overthrown Omar al-Bashir at the height of the popular mobilisation in April, to relinquish their hopes of unilateral military rule. 

It also forced the opposition to pause their demands for civilian rule, even as a massacre of protesters by the RSF on 3 June had made youth leaders more defiant and determined. 

The Sudanese Communist Party criticised the deal as a ‘soft landing’ for the generals. 

Many – and not only the communists – now see the end of the two-year transition as evidence that compromise with the military was never an option. 

On 30 October, hundreds of thousands – if not millions – marched in cities across Sudan to protest against the coup. 

Several demonstrators were killed by security forces but on the Manshiya Bridge in Khartoum they forced the military into a humiliating retreat.
This is not a replay of 2019. Above all, the army is emboldened. Two years ago, after four months of street protests, the generals thought better of detaining revolutionary leaders. 

Now the security forces knock on doors at night, arresting leaders and organisers who haven’t already gone into hiding. 

The Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudan Liberation Army, two armed groups from Darfur which signed up to the peace deal last year, have fallen in behind the army and have no wish to see their new status abolished by civilian elites in Khartoum, whom they hold in contempt. 

The ‘transition’ period has taught generals and militias alike that popular demands to bring them to account will be irresistible if civilians are allowed to set the political agenda.

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20 JAN 20 :: The Intrusion of Middle Powers

In fact, from the Maghreb to the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, we are witnessing a surge in asymmetric warfare and the intrusion of Middle Powers.

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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating

As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.

And now we have two visions of the Future. One vision played out on our screens, the protestors could have been our wives, children. 

The other vision is that of MBS, MBZ and Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw. 

Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.

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Are African countries penalised by credit rating agencies? Rather the opposite in Kenya's case. @RencapMan

I really like Fitch giving its model's estimate, then explaining their manual adjustments, in this case, 3 ratings on the higher positive side. Lucky Kenya

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Carbacid Investments Ltd. reports FY 2021 EPS +28.34% pays Dividend and Special dividend here
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           11.80
Total Shares Issued:          254851988.00
Market Capitalization:        3,007,253,458
EPS:             1.63
PE:                7.239 

Carbacid reports FY Earnings for year ended 31st July 2021 

FY Turnover 909.588m versus 682.878m +33% 

FY Operating Profit 553.647m versus 424.211m

FY Other Income 240.780m versus 230.759m

FY Admin Expenses [264.104m] versus [186.812m]

FY Revaluation of Equity Investments 12.533m versus [38.850m]

FY Profit before Taxation 540.265m versus 426.959m +27%

FY Net Profit after Tax 415.099m versus 324.654m

FY EPS 1.63 versus 1.27 

Final Dividend of 70cents a share and special dividend of 90cents a share = 1.60 a share 


Turnover increased by 33% 

Net cash generation from operating activities remains healthy at 487m [2020: 389m]


Strong FY results juicy dividend Pay Out. 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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November 2021

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