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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 24th of November 2021

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In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.

Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.

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U.S. Navy said Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer Milius conducted a "routine Taiwan Strait transit" through international waters in accordance with international law. @Reuters
Law & Politics

U.S. Navy ships have been transiting the strait roughly monthly, to the anger of Beijing. U.S. allies occasionally also send ships through the strait, including Britain in September.

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US considering sending extra weaponry to Ukraine as fears mount over potential Russian invasion @CNNPolitics
Law & Politics

The Biden administration is weighing sending military advisers and new equipment including weaponry to Ukraine as Russia builds up forces near the border and US officials prepare allies for the possibility of another Russian invasion, multiple sources familiar with the deliberations tell CNN.
The discussions about the proposed lethal aid package are happening as Ukraine has begun to warn publicly that an invasion could happen as soon as January. 

The package could include new Javelin anti-tank and anti-armor missiles as well as mortars, the sources said.
Air defense systems, such as stinger missiles, are also under consideration, and the Defense Department has been pressing for some equipment that would have gone to Afghanistan -- like Mi-17 helicopters -- to instead be sent to Ukraine. 

The Mi-17 is a Russian helicopter that the US originally purchased to give to the Afghans. 

The Pentagon is now weighing what to do with them after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August.
But others in the administration are concerned that sending stingers and helicopters could be seen by Russia as a major escalation. 

And while they are prepared to send some military advisers into the region, it is unclear whether any would go into Ukraine itself, the people said.
Retired Lt. Col. Cedric Leighton told CNN that Javelin antitank missiles "are quite effective against the T-80 tanks which the Russians are actually employing in these efforts against Ukraine right now." 

But he noted that any additional assistance to Ukraine undoubtedly risks "further heightening tensions" with Moscow.

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The repeal of the farm laws shows that no matter how strong a government is, consistent protests will always be difficult [to] crush, said Narendar Pani, a professor at National Institute of Advanced Studies @NikkeiAsia
Law & Politics

"If it wasn't repealed, the [ruling Bharatiya Janata Party] would have lost support from large parts of the country, particularly the northern states of Haryana and Punjab," Pani said. 

The Modi government's "reform processes do not give the impression of a consistent perspective; it looks like an assorted set of policies put together at random."

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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 57 countries. @ReutersGraphics

17 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

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The @AstraZeneca jab could be the reason why Britain is faring better than Europe when it comes to Covid, Pascal Soirot, chief executive of AstraZeneca said @Telegraph

He told the BBC's Radio 4 Today programme: "You have two dimensions to this immune response... one is the antibody response and two is the so called T-cell response'' 
"And the antibody response is what drives the immediate reaction or defence of the body when when you're attacked by the virus''
"And the T-cell response takes a little longer to come in. But it's actually more durable. It lasts longer''
"And the body remembers that longer. So you see on to everybody's focused on antibodies, but antibodies you see them decline over time."
Monday, Germany saw the second biggest number of daily cases in the world with 49,467, with the UK third with 41,365.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1244
Dollar Index 96.519
Japan Yen 114.96
Swiss Franc 0.9333
Pound 1.3375
Aussie 0.7207
India Rupee 74.465
South Korea Won 1188.43
Brazil Real 5.5721
Egypt Pound 15.7166
South Africa Rand 15.866

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#AbiyAhmed is going to z warfront today As he claims to be 7th King of #Ethiopia will he meet z destiny of Yohannes IV (killed in action), of Tewodros II (suicide to avoid capture), or Haile Selassie I (arrest/execution)? @KjetilTronvoll

: #AbiyAhmed is going to z warfront today to "lead" z fight against advancing #Tigray #TDF. As he claims to be "7th King of #Ethiopia", will he meet z destiny of Yohannes IV (killed in action), of Tewodros II (suicide to avoid capture), or Haile Selassie I (arrest/execution)?

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2/2: Or will #AbiyAhmed be z new Menelik II who defeated Italian colonial army at battel of #Adwa in 1896, as he characterize #TDF as an imperialist agent? @KjetilTronvoll

He should keep in mind though, that z frontline commander at Adwa was #RasAlula from #Tigray, & there are no Alula in #ENDF.

February 1st 2021 ‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag

“Everybody else is going to start wanting more freedom within the constitution. It’s impossible for the state to manage a guerrilla war up there and at the same time manage to control the rest of the country. If he put more resources into Tigray he’s going to lose more control of the other regions.''
“There’s no hope for him. If he has a fair election he will lose full stop.

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;


Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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PM Abiy threw an ill-trained peasant army against a battle-hardened, formidable army with an iron will to fight and expected to win- @RAbdiAnalyst @SeweS_

November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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Foreign investors are pulling money out of South Africa at a record pace. @RobinBrooksIIF

The strong Rand in H1 2021 was misleading, since it resulted from deep recession that pushed the current account into surplus. Our $/ZAR fair value remains 17.00, i.e. still a large 10% overvaluation..

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Construction of the SGR's Kigali - Isaka extension than the connection towards Burundi, as feasibility studies for former project have already been completed and it has reportedly attracted interest from DBSA @ChiedzaMadzima

 Also seeing some green shoots on the construction of the SGR's Kigali - Isaka extension than the connection towards Burundi, as feasibility studies for the former project have already been completed and it has reportedly attracted interest from DBSA

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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November 2021

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