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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 25th of March 2021

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Jonathan Lethem on Robert Heinlein and Other Influences @NewYorker

The story’s protagonist, Mull, has found himself living in a once spectacular tesseract house—an architect’s grandiose solution to L.A.’s housing crisis—which has collapsed yet is still habitable. 

The structure keeps shifting and Mull struggles to find his way around. A corridor he used one day may have vanished the next. 

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People dance as coloured powder is thrown during Lathmar Holi celebrations, amidst the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in the town of Barsana India, March 23, 2021. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi @GuyReuters

People dance as coloured powder is thrown during Lathmar Holi celebrations, amidst the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in the town of Barsana, northern state of Uttar Pradesh, India, March 23, 2021. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

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Whale sightings aid quest to protect wildlife in Indian Ocean oasis @Greenpeace @Reuters

MASCARENE PLATEAU, Indian Ocean (Reuters) - Over two weeks at sea, the scientists spotted pilot whales and spinner dolphins, orcas and more. But not a single sperm whale had crested the choppy waters of the western Indian Ocean.

Then, an underwater microphone picked up a series of unmistakable clicks and squeaks. A large pod of the endangered whales was nearby. And from the sound of it, they were feeding.

The scientists are on a monthlong quest to document whales and other marine mammals living around the Mascarene Plateau, hoping to bolster arguments for protecting the remote 2,000-km underwater ridge to both fight climate change and protect ocean wildlife.

“We’re actually generating some of the first baseline data for this area on marine megafauna, and that feels quite exciting,” said Exeter University biologist Kirsten Thompson, one of the scientists on the Greenpeace research expedition.

For sperm whales, the largest of the toothed whale species, “the only data from this area comes from the whaling days,” she said. 

The group of researchers hopes also to draw attention to the U.N. campaign aimed at persuading countries to protect at least 30% of the planet’s land and ocean by 2030.

The plateau is a conservation target partly for the world’s largest seagrass meadow carpeting its Saya de Malha Bank, which absorbs climate-warming carbon dioxide and provides a vast wildlife habitat. 

Whales, meanwhile, are also key to combating global warming. They release tonnes of iron a year in their faeces, which feeds CO2-absorbing phytoplankton.

The Mascarene research is timely. A March 17 paper in the journal Nature maps out marine areas teeming with life as conservation targets, and suggests that guarding these zones from fishing, shipping, deep sea mining and other human interference would protect more than 80% of endangered marine species’ habitats.

It would also increase global fish catches by more than 8 million tonnes, according to the study. 

Most of the target areas are within territorial waters of over 100 countries around the world. But a few like the Mascarene are in international waters.

Protecting the Mascarene, which is larger than the Great Barrier Reef off the coast of Australia, would help safeguard fisheries more than 2,000 km (1,242 miles) away in East Africa, another group of researchers argued in a 2019 study in the journal Marine Policy.

“These protected areas do become a bit like savings accounts. It’s not just about protecting turtles and sequestering carbon,” said Douglas McCauley, a former fisherman who is now a marine biologist at the University of California Santa Barbara.

Rising from the ocean depths, the Saya de Malha shelf provides a unique shallow habitat in the middle of the high seas, hosting an estimated 3,900 marine species from the square-nosed sperm whales to molluscs, analysis by McCauley and colleagues for a 2020 study in Marine Policy shows.

“Very little is known about the animals that live and feed here,” said marine biologist Tim Lewis, who is running the acoustic surveys on the Greenpeace voyage.

Finding the sperm whales is equivalent to finding much more, he said. “If there are sperm whales around, it means that they’re feeding on squid, and squid are feeding on plankton.”

Creating a global network of marine sanctuaries is not likely to be easy. For coastal waters, governments need to commit and prioritise areas with abundant marine life -- those very same areas favoured by fishing interests.

Further out in the no-man’s land of the open ocean, creating a successful conservation area requires countries to give some authority to a central body for its management, said Kristina Gjerde, an advisor for the International Union for Conservation of Nature.

“The big challenge is some of the fishing states - will they end up trying to water down the treaty so much that it won’t have the same scope or ambition?” said Gjerde, who did not name specific countries which may attempt to stymie those efforts.

The United Nations has been working to broker deals on protecting both international and territorial waters. But the coronavirus pandemic has frustrated both sets of negotiations, and has twice delayed the U.N. Biodiversity conference, now set for October in Kunming, China.

The United Nations has held interim discussions on the high seas treaty to help delegations better understand others’ negotiating positions as they wait for formal talks to resume in August.

Nevertheless advocates worry about the loss of momentum.

“There’s more time for certain industry interests to also mobilise” against the effort, said Liz Karan, director of the Pew Charitable Trusts’s high seas conservation project.

But experts warn that ringfencing specific ocean areas for protection may not be enough. 

Underwater species are also being challenged by climate change warming the water and making it more acidic, with some fish species already shifting to new ranges to cope.

“I have a concern that we identify areas today that we think are important, and just draw a line around them, and then say: ‘okay, now everything’s fine’,” said Peter Tyack, a marine biologist at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. Chances are, some species will move out of that range.

Back on the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise, the crew is still scanning the vast ocean horizon through binoculars for evidence of life, while also sampling water for future DNA testing to determine which species frequent the plateau.

Three days after the team eavesdropped on the sperm whales hunting squid, the ocean became glassy flat. 

Watchers on the bridge spotted a burst of spray - a sperm whale was ploughing through the sunlit waters. It raised its distinctive V-notched tail toward the sky before disappearing back into the depths.

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A drone pilot has captured incredible footage of a volcano erupting in Iceland. @5_News

Bjorn Steinbekk risked losing his FPV drone as he flew the camera directly over the lava as it continued to shoot and spill from the Fagradalsfjall volcano near Iceland's capital, Reykjavik.

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09-NOV-2020 :: Counterintuitively, The Trump Vladislav Surkov Talking Points which of course always feature George Soros are strangely ineffective and a little like a receding tide.
Law & Politics

“My take on Trump is that he is an inevitable creation of this unreal normal world,” Adam Curtis says. 

“Politics has become a pantomime or vaudeville in that it creates waves of anger rather than argument. Maybe people like Trump are successful simply because they fuel that anger, in the echo chambers of the internet.”

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Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of March 24: + 571,200 cases in 24 hours @CovidTracker_fr

Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of March 24: + 571,200 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 124,775,821 in total + 9,395 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,744,329 in total

''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'

And sure the numbers slid for around 6 consecutive weeks but they have bottomed out of late.

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Globally, COVID-19 confirmed cases continued to rise for a fourth consecutive week, with just under 3.3 million new cases reported in the last week @WHO

Concurrently, the number of new deaths reported plateaued after a six week decrease, with just over 60 000 new deaths reported. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

Brazil (508 010 new cases; 3% increase)

United States of America (374 369 new cases; 19% decrease) 

India (240 082 new cases; 62% increase) 

France (204 840 new cases; 27% increase),

Italy (154 493 new cases).

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08-MAR-2021 :: My concern is that Brazil which was the epicenter of the Virus in May 2020 is once again a Precursor and a Harbinger

And sure the numbers slid for around 6 consecutive weeks but they have bottomed out of late.
“I see a huge storm forming in Brazil.” Denise Garrett, vice president of the Sabin Vaccine Institute in Washington
The bottom line: P.1 is 2.5 times more transmissible than the wild-type B lineage. And way more transmissible than B.1.1.7. @bollemdb @obscovid19br 

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett 

Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen. Brazil is a global threat @bollemdb

Model-based evaluation of transmissibility and reinfection for the P.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2

The variant of concern (VOC) P.1 emerged in the Amazonas state (Brazil) and was sequenced for the first time on 6-Jan- 2021 by the Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

It contains a constellation of mutations, ten of them in the spike protein.The P.1 variant shares mutations such as E484K, K417T, and N501Y and a deletion in the orf1b protein (del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF)) with other VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom and South Africa (B.1.1.7 and the B.1.351, respectively).

Prevalence of P.1 increased sharply from 0% in November 2020 to 73% in January 2021 and in less than 2 months replaced previous lineages (4).

The estimated relative transmissibility of P.1 is 2.5 (95% CI: 2.3-2.8) times higher than the infection rate of the wild variant, while the reinfection probability due to the new variant is 6.4% (95% CI: 5.7 - 7.1%).

If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but "variants" that [are] surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal

COVID19 Historic Peaks Deaths a day @brodjustice

I expect th P.1 Lineage to be dominant worldwide in 8-12 weeks notwithstanding the Focus on SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7
My Thesis is based on the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World.

Therefore, I would be tempering my COVID19 optimism and holding my horses which introduces interesting dynamics into the markets.

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It is clear that what happened at the beginning of the pandemic is not normal.Two main scientific journals dismissed it, The Lancet as conspiracy and Nature pushing its natural origin @Rossana38510044

Now that we see that many reputable experts also thought that a lab leak for SARS2 was plausible it is clear that what happened at the beginning of the pandemic is not normal.Two main scientific journals dismissed it, The Lancet as conspiracy and Nature pushing its natural origin

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Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19

Controlling the COVID19 Narrative, suppressing the Enquiry, parlaying the situation into one of singular advantage marks a singular moment and Xi Jinping has exhibited Chinese dominance over multiple theatres from the Home Front, the International Media Domain, the ‘’Scientific’’ domain over which he has achieved complete ownership and where any dissenting view is characterized as a ‘’conspiracy theory’’

It remains a remarkable achievement.

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’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.

There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released

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"Let’s say, for instance that a Florida panther rampaged through the South Bronx, injuring many people. It would be immediately reasonable to wonder: How could that possibly happen?." @R_H_Ebright

"Let’s say, for instance that a Florida panther rampaged through the South Bronx, injuring many people. It would be immediately reasonable to wonder: How could that possibly happen? Florida panthers don’t live anywhere near the Bronx and aren’t normally so ferocious."

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19

“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

 “There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on.”

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Currency Markets At A Glance
World Currencies

Euro 1.1815

Dollar Index 92.611

Japan Yen 108.99

Swiss Franc 0.9362

Pound 1.3675

Aussie 0.7593

India Rupee 72.6625

South Korea Won 1134.09

Brazil Real 5.6214

Egypt Pound 15.764

South Africa Rand 14.9579

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314,057 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData

-39.604% below record high reached in January 2021 

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The African Region reported nearly 51 000 new cases and over 1400 new deaths, a 3% decrease and a 10% increase respectively compared to the previous week. @WHO

This is the first time in eight weeks, that an increase in new deaths has been reported. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

Ethiopia (11 587 new cases; 10.1 new cases per 100 000 population; a 28% increase) 

South Africa (8387 new cases; 14.1 new cases per 100 000; a 2% increase), 

Kenya (7358 new cases; 13.7 new cases per 100 000; a 66% increase)

The highest numbers of new deaths were reported in the same countries, from 

South Africa (821 new deaths; 1.4 new deaths per 100 000 population; a 34% increase) 

Ethiopia (107 new deaths; 0.1 new deaths per 100 000; a 11% decrease)

Kenya (79 new deaths; 0.1 new deaths per 100 000; a 132% increase).

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The Sudanese Military’s Interests in Civilian Rule Tawazun Joseph Siegle

Military governments have led Sudan for all but ten years since independence in 1956. 

Widespread popular protests in 2019 brought an abrupt end to former president Omar al-Bashir’s thirty years of repressive rule and raised hopes for a new trajectory, but a fragile, civilian-military transitional government formed in August 2019 does not constitute a clean break with the past. 

The military leads the Sovereign Council while a civilian prime minister runs the day-to-day operations of government, with a mandate to transition to a fully civilian-led, democratic government by January 2024. 

As an interim step, a civilian is to lead the Sovereign Council in February 2022.

Questions remain over how committed military leaders are to the transition. 

The military has become accustomed to playing a dominant role in the government and economy. The security services are estimated to control over 250 companies in a range of sectors, including gold mining, livestock, arms, telecommunications, banking, and construction

In Egypt, Mali, Myanmar, and Thailand, the military has shown a reflexive impulse to maintain control, but there are six reasons why a transition to full civilian rule is in the interest of the Sudanese military.

The economy has contracted sharply since 2015, with national debt projected to balloon six-fold, to $1.2 trillion, by 2025. 

With an inflation rate of 167 percent in December 2020, Sudan faces a pressure cooker of socioeconomic tensions. 

By holding onto power, military leaders would own this economic time bomb, making it wise to hand this basket of troubles over to civilians.

A final incentive for a transition to civilian rule is that military governments tend to be fragile. 

Bashir’s alliances with Islamists and booming oil revenues allowed him an extended hold on power, but military regimes typically experience shorter tenures than other authoritarian governments or democracies. 

The prospect of a coup is never far away, making democratic civilian rule a form of life insurance for military leaders.

Stepping away from power is never easy. However, militaries have done so in Argentina, Benin, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Peru, among others. 

By proactively managing the transition to civilian rule, Sudan’s military leaders have an opportunity to emerge as a rebranded, professional, and respected force. 

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10-JUN-2019 :: The ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating.

As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.

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Report: “Eritrean troops despatched to Oromia”

In particular, Eritrea’s 22nd division has been dispatched to Oromia.

Haregot Furzun is the commander of the 22nd division and two of his brigades are in Oromia region now.”


Increasingly looks like a Reverse Takeover of Ethiopia by Eritrea 

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Political scientists talk about African ‘Big Men’ inconsistently @LSEnews

Over the last two decades, the use of the ‘Big Man’ concept to explain the complexity of African politics has grown steadily. 

The imprecise language around Big Men is also found in social science. 

A manifestation of personal rule in a patrimonial regime, the Big Man has become a conceptual workhorse for social scientists trying to explain the diversity and complexity of African politics to students, policymakers and interest groups – a sort of a sub-continental signifier for a readily accessible and explainable Africa.

As a result, the invocation of Big Men both in popular representations and social scientific research has increased significantly in recent years though in less than precise ways. 


A Big Man is an apex figure in a patrimonial governance regime. We argue that there are five key features of Big Man: 

1) his role is (informally) rule-bound and accountable; 

2) he maintains authority through reciprocity not violence; 

3) he is predictable not arbitrary; 

4) he uses public resources for club goods rather than for public goods or private gains and 

5) he connects small men to power and, therefore, is decidedly not elite based.

When we broke down the way Big Men are described according to the article’s topic/theme, we found political scientists are especially likely to talk about Big Men as thieves or dictators if violence or land are the author’s subject.

The two descriptors most commonly associated with Big Men are ‘redistributive’ and ‘neopatrimonial’ (Figure 2). 

At first glance the popularity of these two descriptors is encouraging, given that true Big Men are apex figures in neopatrimonial regimes that revolve around redistribution and reciprocity to a network of loyal constituents. 

Less encouraging, however, was the discovery that one-third of the entire dataset describes Big Men as dictators or thieves. 

These findings suggest a jockeying for position between the Big Man Governance and Big Man Dictator models, where the latter is unaccountable, despotic and often violent.

Our research also bore out another notable finding: political scientists particularly understate the accountability of Big Men. 

The share of political scientists describing Big Men in terms of accountability (27%) is significantly lower than in the broader dataset (36%). 

Towards the end of our article we present some illustrative examples from fieldwork conducted in Ghana’s local governments, which shows how Big Men are actually embattled figures who constantly struggle to keep their ‘small men’ happy.

Importantly, this finding was only true if the author is a political scientist.

Our research throws into relief the inconsistent treatment of Big Men in African Studies. 

The results lead us to call for putting the Big Man back in his place, as a dominant figure who is empowered by, and thus indebted to, those beneath him.

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Turning to Africa the Spinning Top

Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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World’s First Wildlife Bond to Track Rhino Populations in Africa @business @AntonySguazzin

A bond designed to raise funds to grow the population of endangered black rhinoceros in South Africa will be sold by the World Bank this year.

The five-year, 670 million rand ($45 million) security will be the world’s first wildlife conservation bond and the aim is to sell it in the middle of the year. 

Returns for investors will be determined by the rate of growth of the populations of the animals in two South African reserves, according to the Rhino Impact Investment Project, an initiative started by the Zoological Society of London.

If successful, the program could be expanded to protect black rhino populations in Kenya as well as other wildlife species such as lions, tigers, gorillas and orangutans, Rhino Impact said in a document detailing the proposal. 

It provides an opportunity for people interested in conservation to get a return on their support and possibly re-invest money in new projects rather than the more traditional route where projects are funded by philanthropists or governments.

“The innovative wildlife conservation bond financing mechanism plans to use a World Bank, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IBRD AAA-rated bond,” it said. Credit Suisse Group AG is advising on the project.

The World Bank will also sell a $100 million conservation bond at the same time, without specifying what it will be used for.

Under the terms of the rhino bond, investors will forgo an annual coupon and will instead receive their original capital and an additional payout depending on how much the rhino population has grown over five years

The principal of the bond and the possible payout at maturity will be paid by the Global Environment Facility, which has received donations from more than 40 countries and was formed ahead of the Rio Earth Summit in 1992.

Of the 29,000 rhinos made up of five species globally, about 80% are in South Africa and almost all them are white rhino. 

Black rhino numbers have dropped to about 5,500 from 65,000 in 1970. 

The animals are found in four African countries, including South Africa, and can weigh as much as 1.4 tons -- much smaller than the white rhino.

Rhinos are under threat from poaching, mostly because of demand in Vietnam and China for the powder from their horns that’s believed to cure cancer and improve virility.

“When working on innovative structures like this one, we start small and hope to learn from the first one and then get successfully larger in an ambition to ultimately scale what works,” Marisa Drew, chief sustainability officer at Credit Suisse, said.

First Sovereign Nature Bonds Get Lift from World Bank-Backed Hub

The two sites selected in South Africa are the Addo Elephant National Park and the Great Fish River Nature Reserve. 

Addo is a 1,640 square kilometer (633 square-mile) reserve in the Eastern Cape province while Great Fish is a 450 square-kilometer park in the same province. Both are state run.

“It couldn’t have come at a better time, we have to look after the rhino, its critically endangered,” Nick de Goede, park manager at Addo, said in an interview. 

“The whole idea is to look at the rhino as a pilot and then it can be rolled out for any species.”

The aim is increase the population by 4% per annum, he said, declining to say how many rhinos are in Addo because that information could be used by poachers.

Three sites in Kenya -- Lewa Borana Conservancy, Ol Pejeta Conservancy and the Tsavo West National Park -- may be chosen next for a bond sale, Rhino Impact said.

While the rhino security is a first, so-called sustainable bonds have been used to finance a variety of outcomes from marine and fisheries projects in the Seychelles to girls education in rural India.

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In 1995-2000, the UN expected the fertility rate in Nigeria to have fallen from 5.15 children per woman to 3.12 by now. It has in fact *risen* to an estimated 5.3 since then @RencapMan

In 1995-2000, the UN expected the fertility rate in Nigeria to have fallen from 5.15 children per woman to 3.12 by now.  

It has in fact *risen* to an estimated 5.3 since then, leaving the country short of savings while 5m join the labour force annually and struggle to find jobs

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Health CAS Dr Mwangangi: Nairobi's positivity rate is at 57.7%. This is high. #CoronaVirusUpdates @KBCChannel1

Clearly its not the Test Positivity Rate but the % of all Infections over a one week period 

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The daily number of actively infected #COVID19KE cases now at the highest since the start of the pandemic with the 3rd wave exceeding the 2nd & 1st @DrAhmedKalebi

The daily number of actively infected #COVID19KE cases Flag of Kenya now at the highest since the start of the pandemic with the 3rd wave exceeding the 2nd & 1st, while the daily figures of new cases & positivity rate continue at escalated levels 

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.@StanChartKE reports FY 2020 EPS -34.66% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           134.75

Total Shares Issued:          343510571.00

Market Capitalization:        46,288,049,442

EPS:             13.95 

PE:               9.659


Standard Chartered reports FY 2020 Earnings here 

FY Total Assets 325.605070b versus 302.139056b

FY Kenya Government Securities 94.852653b versus 97.671849b

FY Loans and Advances to Customers [Net] 121.524227b versus 128.690341b

FY Customer Deposits 256.497530b versus 228.433515b

FY Total Interest Income 23.735413b versus 25.272452b

FY Total Interest Expenses 4.617260b versus 5.799959b

FY Net Interest Income 19.117153b versus 19.472493b

FY Total Non-Interest Income 8.289781b versus 9.227420b

FY Total Operating Income 27.406934b versus 28.699913b

FY Loan Loss Provision 3.882158b versus 0.572592b

FY Staff Costs 7.677256b versus 7.136019b

FY Total Other Operating Expenses 20.010876b versus 16.526056b

FY Profit before Tax and Exceptional Items 7.396058b versus 12.173857b

Profit after Tax 5.440417b versus 8.236773b

FY Total Comprehensive Income 5.860550b versus 7.816660b

FY EPS 13.95 versus 21.35 -34.66% 

FY Dividend 10.50 versus 12.50 

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"We also registered a strong capital position which will allow us to support sustainable growth opportunities" - CFO @ChemutaiM @StanChartKE
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Its a resilient Franchise plugged into a global network.

Dividend Yield is 7.79%

Its attractive at these levels over a 24 month horizon 

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CIC Insurance reports FY 2020 EPS Loss 11cents a share
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  

Closing Price:           2.27

Total Shares Issued:          2615538528.00

Market Capitalization:        5,937,272,459

EPS:             -0.11



CIC is the leading provider of micro insurance and other financial services

CIC reports FY Earnings through 31st December 2020 versus 12 months through 31st December 2019

FY Gross written premiums 16.988281b versus 17.695928b

FY Gross Earned premiums 17.244119b versus 17.296700b

FY Net earned premiums 13.938978b versus 14.396887b

FY Fees and Commission 1.459392b versus 1.281654b

FY Investment Income 1.461661b versus 1.486740b

FY Total Income 16.870916b versus 17.639515b

FY Claims and policyholders benefit expense [9.954608b] versus [10.040469b]

FY Commissions Expense [2.159265b] versus [2.241097b]

FY Operating and Other Expenses [4.829275b] versus [4.952635b]

FY Total benefits and other expenses [16.943148b] versus [17.234201b]

FY [loss] Profit before tax [79.544m] versus 385.589m

FY [loss] Profit for the year [296.832m] versus 321.591m

FY EPS [0.11] versus 0.12 

No Dividend 

Cash and Cash Equivalents 2.069302b 


challenging 2020 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2021

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